2016 ZiPS Projections – Milwaukee Brewers

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
It represents an instance of damning with faint praise to observe that, in 2015, Milwaukee batters outproduced Bryce Harper by roughly a win. On the one hand, that’s better than not outproducing Bryce Harper. On the other, the phrase “Milwaukee batters” denotes a group of professional ballplayers, while “Bryce Harper” is just one person by himself. In light of how baseball works, a group of players should basically always outperform a single guy.

A brief inspection of the projections for Milwaukee suggests that, while the 2016 campaign is unlikely to yield wild success, there’s also less of a chance that the entire club will find itself contending with a 22-year-old outfielder for supremacy of the WAR leaderboards. Apart from whatever value he provides from pitch-framing, catcher Jonathan Lucroy (481 PA, 3.3 zWAR) is forecast to supply enough offensive and (more traditional) defensive value to record an above-average line, while Ryan Braun (582 PA, 2.7 zWAR) and relative newcomer Domingo Santana (570 PA, 2.5 zWAR) receive solid-average projections. Again, it’s not an overwhelming collection of talent. Between the deep depth, however, and the possibility of some useful platoons, the Brewers have a chance of skewing towards the direction of average.

Pitchers
The reader should note that, in the depth-chart graphic below, the club’s starting pitchers are arranged not in the order they’re likely to be deployed by manager Craig Counsell, but by projected WAR. Curiously, the two are almost mirror images of each other. Right-hander Taylor Jungmann (161.2 IP, 2.4 zWAR), for example, is the club’s ace by the first methodology and No. 4 starter by the latter. Wily Peralta (149.2 IP, 0.9 zWAR), meanwhile, is both the team’s probable opening-day starter and also (by the projections) unworthy of a spot in the rotation.

As for the bullpen, the departure of Francisco Rodriguez has created some uncertainty as to who might assume closing duties. Right-handers Jeremy Jeffress (62.2 IP, 0.7 zWAR) and Corey Knebel (63.0 IP, 0.7 zWAR) are both candidates. By the projections, however, left-hander Will Smith (70.2 IP, 1.0 zWAR) would appear to be the optimal choice. While perhaps regarded as a mere LOOGY in past years, Smith seems capable of handling all types of hitters these days. Consider: in 2015, Smith recorded a nearly identical fielding-independent mark against right-handed hitters (2.87 xFIP) as left-handed ones (2.59 xFIP).

Bench/Prospects
Due in no small part to the influence of new general manager David Stearns, Milwaukee enters the 2016 season with an impressive array of depth pieces. No, he didn’t draft or develop Orlando Arcia (579 PA, 2.3 zWAR), who’s apparently an average major-leaguer already, but he did acquire the quadrumvirate of Keon Broxton (496 PA, 1.1 zWAR), Garin Cecchini (508 PA, 1.0 zWAR), Ramon Flores (449 PA, 1.0 zWAR), and Rymer Liriano (515 PA, 1.1 zWAR) — all of whom profile as useful bench-types — for basically nothing. Among pitchers, the effect is less pronounced; however, Zachary Davies (141.0 IP, 1.9 zWAR), who’s expected to begin the season as a minor-leaguer, is well-acquitted by Dan Szymborski’s dumb computer.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Brewers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Brewers Depth Chart

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Jonathan Lucroy R 30 C 481 56 119 27 3 9 55 2 1
Ryan Braun R 32 RF 582 80 147 30 3 23 90 18 5
Domingo Santana R 23 RF 570 75 127 24 3 26 84 5 4
Orlando Arcia R 21 SS 579 64 140 31 4 10 61 20 9
Chris Carter R 29 1B 505 65 103 22 1 31 85 2 1
Khris Davis R 28 LF 459 61 103 23 2 23 68 5 3
Brett Phillips L 22 CF 589 68 136 27 9 14 64 12 11
Josmil Pinto R 27 C 413 50 94 19 1 15 50 0 1
Scooter Gennett L 26 2B 539 61 141 28 4 10 52 5 4
Keon Broxton R 26 CF 496 55 96 19 7 13 51 18 7
Rymer Liriano R 25 RF 515 64 109 24 3 13 57 15 8
Ramon Flores L 24 LF 449 54 102 20 4 13 48 3 3
Garin Cecchini L 25 3B 508 50 114 21 2 9 43 12 3
Jonathan Villar B 25 SS 496 59 107 18 6 10 46 33 10
Aaron Hill R 34 2B 416 43 97 20 2 11 51 5 3
Adam Weisenburger R 27 C 288 28 57 11 1 3 21 1 2
Martin Maldonado R 29 C 221 18 44 8 0 5 25 0 1
Andy Wilkins L 27 1B 522 67 120 28 1 25 77 1 1
Hernan Perez R 25 3B 458 40 113 21 4 5 37 13 4
Clint Coulter R 22 RF 565 73 119 29 3 22 78 5 7
Kirk Nieuwenhuis L 28 CF 331 45 67 17 2 13 45 5 3
Manny Pina R 29 C 272 30 59 14 0 5 30 2 0
Eric Young Jr. B 31 LF 391 48 80 14 5 2 26 25 6
Matt Clark L 29 1B 486 61 104 20 1 21 64 0 0
Colin Walsh B 26 2B 497 53 96 19 3 10 38 7 3
Rene Garcia R 26 C 284 28 68 12 0 2 23 2 2
Will Middlebrooks R 27 3B 437 44 97 15 2 17 56 3 2
Alex Presley L 30 CF 414 44 99 13 4 8 38 9 4
Jake Elmore R 29 3B 400 39 86 15 2 3 30 8 6
Donnie Murphy R 33 3B 255 28 53 10 1 8 30 1 1
Michael Reed R 23 RF 510 54 103 25 5 8 50 19 9
Tyrone Taylor R 22 CF 563 56 131 26 3 6 50 13 7
Nathan Orf R 26 3B 441 44 93 20 3 2 32 3 4
Kyle Wren L 25 CF 509 47 116 16 5 1 33 27 11
Yadiel Rivera R 24 SS 527 48 114 17 5 5 40 9 8
Shane Peterson L 28 LF 480 53 103 20 3 10 48 6 2
Robinzon Diaz R 32 C 247 23 63 10 1 2 19 1 2
Pete Orr L 37 2B 337 32 75 11 4 2 28 7 3
Victor Roache R 24 LF 506 55 96 17 3 22 64 5 3
Nick Ramirez L 26 1B 509 55 99 20 1 17 59 1 1
Matt Long L 29 LF 490 51 98 21 5 9 44 11 4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Jonathan Lucroy 481 8.7% 13.1% .139 .302 .276 .340 .415 .329
Ryan Braun 582 8.4% 19.6% .200 .317 .280 .345 .480 .359
Domingo Santana 570 10.4% 31.2% .215 .336 .252 .337 .467 .352
Orlando Arcia 579 5.0% 17.6% .127 .300 .258 .297 .385 .307
Chris Carter 505 11.9% 30.5% .269 .282 .237 .333 .506 .358
Khris Davis 459 8.3% 24.8% .233 .288 .251 .320 .484 .348
Brett Phillips 589 5.8% 22.2% .162 .307 .252 .302 .414 .318
Josmil Pinto 413 8.0% 23.0% .176 .296 .251 .315 .427 .324
Scooter Gennett 539 3.9% 16.1% .129 .317 .278 .309 .407 .308
Keon Broxton 496 8.3% 35.7% .161 .318 .215 .283 .376 .299
Rymer Liriano 515 7.6% 30.5% .148 .320 .233 .299 .381 .308
Ramon Flores 449 9.1% 18.3% .166 .287 .254 .324 .420 .326
Garin Cecchini 508 7.7% 23.6% .113 .314 .247 .312 .360 .302
Jonathan Villar 496 7.7% 27.4% .134 .321 .240 .303 .374 .313
Aaron Hill 416 7.0% 15.1% .150 .277 .256 .310 .406 .315
Adam Weisenburger 288 8.3% 23.3% .088 .295 .227 .310 .315 .279
Martin Maldonado 221 7.7% 24.9% .116 .279 .221 .288 .337 .271
Andy Wilkins 522 6.7% 23.8% .219 .282 .251 .299 .470 .327
Hernan Perez 458 3.3% 16.2% .101 .302 .260 .285 .361 .285
Clint Coulter 565 7.6% 23.5% .201 .275 .236 .312 .437 .330
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 331 7.9% 29.9% .201 .287 .225 .292 .426 .313
Manny Pina 272 5.5% 14.3% .116 .261 .237 .289 .353 .282
Eric Young Jr. 391 7.7% 18.4% .086 .284 .230 .298 .316 .286
Matt Clark 486 8.0% 27.2% .194 .286 .238 .302 .432 .313
Colin Walsh 497 11.3% 27.6% .126 .297 .221 .313 .347 .297
Rene Garcia 284 2.8% 13.7% .066 .286 .251 .277 .317 .264
Will Middlebrooks 437 4.8% 24.9% .170 .278 .237 .275 .407 .296
Alex Presley 414 5.8% 15.9% .118 .293 .258 .304 .376 .302
Jake Elmore 400 9.3% 14.3% .079 .279 .243 .317 .322 .293
Donnie Murphy 255 6.7% 25.5% .156 .281 .229 .294 .385 .297
Michael Reed 510 10.6% 26.3% .132 .307 .231 .318 .363 .315
Tyrone Taylor 563 4.6% 14.7% .096 .285 .250 .289 .346 .285
Nathan Orf 441 7.9% 19.3% .082 .298 .239 .316 .321 .289
Kyle Wren 509 5.7% 17.1% .062 .299 .247 .292 .309 .283
Yadiel Rivera 527 4.0% 22.2% .085 .291 .231 .268 .316 .264
Shane Peterson 480 8.8% 26.7% .131 .316 .240 .309 .371 .300
Robinzon Diaz 247 2.8% 10.1% .075 .288 .265 .285 .340 .273
Pete Orr 337 3.3% 20.5% .078 .293 .237 .266 .315 .258
Victor Roache 506 6.1% 40.7% .190 .306 .205 .261 .395 .289
Nick Ramirez 509 7.5% 38.9% .156 .322 .212 .271 .368 .277
Matt Long 490 7.3% 25.3% .131 .281 .220 .277 .351 .280

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Jonathan Lucroy 481 5.3 106 3 3.3 Jim Sundberg
Ryan Braun 582 6.4 124 -3 2.7 Larry Hisle
Domingo Santana 570 5.6 118 0 2.5 Tim Salmon
Orlando Arcia 579 4.2 86 7 2.3 Robin Yount
Chris Carter 505 6.0 126 -3 1.9 Rob Deer
Khris Davis 459 5.6 117 -2 1.6 Luke Scott
Brett Phillips 589 4.3 94 -1 1.5 Terrence Long
Josmil Pinto 413 4.8 101 -9 1.4 Jeremy Brown
Scooter Gennett 539 4.6 95 -1 1.3 Jeff Treadway
Keon Broxton 496 3.8 79 5 1.1 John Denman
Rymer Liriano 515 4.0 85 10 1.1 Marvin Garrison
Ramon Flores 449 4.8 103 0 1.0 Mark Sweeney
Garin Cecchini 508 4.2 84 0 1.0 Willie Lozado
Jonathan Villar 496 4.3 85 -6 1.0 Bob Meacham
Aaron Hill 416 4.5 95 -2 1.0 Scott Brosius
Adam Weisenburger 288 3.3 72 3 0.9 Dave Parrish
Martin Maldonado 221 3.3 71 4 0.8 Ray Stephens
Andy Wilkins 522 5.0 107 -1 0.8 Nate Gold
Hernan Perez 458 3.9 76 4 0.8 Ricky Bell
Clint Coulter 565 4.6 103 -5 0.7 Michael Cuddyer
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 331 4.3 94 -3 0.6 Doug Frobel
Manny Pina 272 3.7 75 -1 0.6 Bill Dobrolsky
Eric Young Jr. 391 3.7 69 9 0.5 Rich Thompson
Matt Clark 486 4.6 99 1 0.5 Ivan Cruz
Colin Walsh 497 3.8 81 -3 0.5 Jeff Patzke
Rene Garcia 284 3.1 63 3 0.5 Ken Huckaby
Will Middlebrooks 437 3.9 84 -1 0.5 Seth Johnston
Alex Presley 414 4.2 86 -3 0.5 Terry Bogener
Jake Elmore 400 3.5 77 0 0.3 Chris Sexton
Donnie Murphy 255 3.9 85 -2 0.3 Steve Scarsone
Michael Reed 510 4.1 87 0 0.2 Lastings Milledge
Tyrone Taylor 563 3.6 74 0 0.2 Richard Hidalgo
Nathan Orf 441 3.5 76 -1 0.2 Matt Erickson
Kyle Wren 509 3.4 65 3 0.1 Keiunta Span
Yadiel Rivera 527 2.8 60 5 0.0 Jason Bowers
Shane Peterson 480 4.1 86 -1 0.0 Tom Grant
Robinzon Diaz 247 3.4 71 -3 0.0 Hector Ortiz
Pete Orr 337 3.0 59 2 -0.3 Miguel Cairo
Victor Roache 506 3.5 77 -5 -1.0 Darryel Walters
Nick Ramirez 509 3.4 74 -2 -1.4 Tate Seefried
Matt Long 490 3.4 71 -9 -1.7 Mark Budzinski

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Taylor Jungmann R 26 29 28 161.7 149 66 15 149 75 70
Jimmy Nelson R 27 29 27 161.3 141 61 15 152 75 70
Zachary Davies R 23 27 26 141.0 120 50 14 135 66 62
Chase Anderson R 28 26 26 144.3 122 43 19 147 74 69
Matt Garza R 32 23 23 138.0 105 44 17 141 73 68
Will Smith L 26 75 0 70.7 91 26 7 58 26 24
Ariel Pena R 27 39 16 111.7 116 55 14 101 56 52
Wily Peralta R 27 26 26 149.7 106 50 19 159 81 76
Tyler Cravy R 26 26 18 103.7 84 39 12 103 54 50
Kyle Lohse R 37 27 21 139.3 97 35 20 146 76 71
Hiram Burgos R 28 18 18 89.3 80 37 11 87 47 44
Corey Knebel R 24 57 0 63.0 79 24 7 51 25 23
Jeremy Jeffress R 28 61 0 62.7 60 23 4 58 25 23
Josh Hader L 22 25 17 104.7 105 46 14 100 56 52
Chris Capuano L 37 26 12 76.3 69 27 8 77 39 36
Junior Guerra R 31 27 10 70.3 81 33 10 63 35 33
Jacob Barnes R 26 36 10 81.0 74 33 8 79 41 38
Michael Blazek R 27 54 0 58.0 52 21 5 53 25 23
Tyler Thornburg R 27 57 0 64.7 60 31 6 59 31 29
Tim Dillard R 32 34 3 53.7 40 23 6 55 29 27
Cesar Jimenez L 31 54 0 69.3 56 27 8 68 35 33
Zach Jones R 25 36 0 39.0 45 24 5 34 20 19
Mitchell Lambson L 25 42 0 58.3 53 21 8 57 30 28
Jaye Chapman R 29 44 0 49.0 48 24 6 46 26 24
Yhonathan Barrios R 24 56 0 65.0 47 24 7 67 34 32
Brent Suter L 26 25 20 117.3 86 47 18 127 72 67
David Goforth R 27 57 0 68.0 54 33 7 68 36 34
Hobbs Johnson L 25 22 19 95.0 71 51 14 99 60 56
Jeremy Horst L 30 43 0 52.0 46 25 6 52 29 27
Jim Miller R 34 38 0 62.0 53 16 10 63 34 32
Jorge Lopez R 23 25 25 133.0 116 54 24 140 83 78
Damien Magnifico R 25 44 0 52.3 35 22 7 56 31 29
Adrian Houser R 23 26 18 107.3 82 46 17 117 68 64
Josh Roenicke R 33 32 14 93.7 55 35 16 107 61 57
Pat Misch L 34 15 13 72.7 39 25 13 86 49 46
Daniel Tillman R 27 40 0 48.0 38 25 8 51 31 29
Jorge Ortega R 23 20 19 117.3 55 17 25 145 82 77

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Taylor Jungmann 161.7 700 21.3% 9.4% .291 3.90 3.90 96 96
Jimmy Nelson 161.3 697 20.2% 8.8% .292 3.90 3.93 96 97
Zachary Davies 141.0 608 19.7% 8.2% .289 3.96 3.94 97 97
Chase Anderson 144.3 623 19.6% 6.9% .295 4.30 4.14 106 102
Matt Garza 138.0 599 17.5% 7.3% .288 4.43 4.22 109 104
Will Smith 70.7 296 30.7% 8.8% .300 3.06 2.98 75 73
Ariel Pena 111.7 491 23.6% 11.2% .290 4.19 4.30 103 106
Wily Peralta 149.7 658 16.1% 7.6% .293 4.57 4.46 112 110
Tyler Cravy 103.7 453 18.5% 8.6% .292 4.34 4.35 107 107
Kyle Lohse 139.3 599 16.2% 5.8% .284 4.59 4.45 113 110
Hiram Burgos 89.3 392 20.4% 9.4% .294 4.43 4.38 109 108
Corey Knebel 63.0 264 29.9% 9.1% .291 3.29 3.34 81 82
Jeremy Jeffress 62.7 269 22.3% 8.5% .302 3.30 3.13 81 77
Josh Hader 104.7 460 22.8% 10.0% .297 4.47 4.39 110 108
Chris Capuano 76.3 333 20.7% 8.1% .305 4.24 3.82 104 94
Junior Guerra 70.3 307 26.4% 10.8% .296 4.22 4.24 104 104
Jacob Barnes 81.0 355 20.8% 9.3% .301 4.22 3.95 104 97
Michael Blazek 58.0 248 21.0% 8.5% .286 3.57 3.63 88 89
Tyler Thornburg 64.7 284 21.1% 10.9% .288 4.04 4.04 99 99
Tim Dillard 53.7 239 16.7% 9.6% .293 4.53 4.47 111 110
Cesar Jimenez 69.3 303 18.5% 8.9% .287 4.28 4.30 105 106
Zach Jones 39.0 175 25.7% 13.7% .293 4.38 4.52 108 111
Mitchell Lambson 58.3 253 21.0% 8.3% .292 4.32 4.31 106 106
Jaye Chapman 49.0 217 22.1% 11.1% .294 4.41 4.33 108 106
Yhonathan Barrios 65.0 286 16.4% 8.4% .293 4.43 4.36 109 107
Brent Suter 117.3 526 16.4% 8.9% .296 5.14 5.05 126 124
David Goforth 68.0 305 17.7% 10.8% .293 4.50 4.28 111 105
Hobbs Johnson 95.0 435 16.3% 11.7% .290 5.31 5.38 131 132
Jeremy Horst 52.0 233 19.7% 10.7% .301 4.67 4.34 115 107
Jim Miller 62.0 265 20.0% 6.0% .290 4.65 4.47 114 110
Jorge Lopez 133.0 593 19.6% 9.1% .297 5.28 5.16 130 127
Damien Magnifico 52.3 235 14.9% 9.4% .292 4.99 5.00 123 123
Adrian Houser 107.3 485 16.9% 9.5% .299 5.37 5.15 132 127
Josh Roenicke 93.7 423 13.0% 8.3% .292 5.48 5.43 135 133
Pat Misch 72.7 329 11.9% 7.6% .294 5.70 5.61 140 138
Daniel Tillman 48.0 220 17.3% 11.4% .295 5.44 5.43 134 134
Jorge Ortega 117.3 514 10.7% 3.3% .293 5.91 5.61 145 138

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Taylor Jungmann 161.7 8.29 3.67 0.83 100 2.4 Jim Beattie
Jimmy Nelson 161.3 7.87 3.40 0.84 100 2.3 Jim Beattie
Zachary Davies 141.0 7.66 3.19 0.89 99 1.9 Andy McGaffigan
Chase Anderson 144.3 7.61 2.68 1.19 91 1.4 Brian Powell
Matt Garza 138.0 6.85 2.87 1.11 88 1.1 Andy Hawkins
Will Smith 70.7 11.58 3.31 0.89 128 1.0 Randy Myers
Ariel Pena 111.7 9.35 4.43 1.13 93 1.0 Leslie Brea
Wily Peralta 149.7 6.37 3.01 1.14 86 0.9 Rusty Richards
Tyler Cravy 103.7 7.29 3.38 1.04 90 0.8 Travis Minix
Kyle Lohse 139.3 6.27 2.26 1.29 85 0.8 Dennis Springer
Hiram Burgos 89.3 8.06 3.73 1.11 88 0.7 Jimmy Rogers
Corey Knebel 63.0 11.29 3.43 1.00 119 0.7 P.J. Bevis
Jeremy Jeffress 62.7 8.61 3.30 0.57 118 0.7 Claude Jonnard
Josh Hader 104.7 9.03 3.95 1.20 87 0.7 Andy Pratt
Chris Capuano 76.3 8.14 3.18 0.94 92 0.6 Bob Veale
Junior Guerra 70.3 10.37 4.22 1.28 93 0.6 Paul Wagner
Jacob Barnes 81.0 8.22 3.67 0.89 93 0.6 Casey Hoorelbeke
Michael Blazek 58.0 8.07 3.26 0.78 109 0.4 Ryan Speier
Tyler Thornburg 64.7 8.35 4.31 0.83 97 0.1 Beiker Graterol
Tim Dillard 53.7 6.70 3.85 1.01 86 0.0 Jerry Johnson
Cesar Jimenez 69.3 7.27 3.51 1.04 91 0.0 Russ Swan
Zach Jones 39.0 10.38 5.54 1.15 89 0.0 Henry Owens
Mitchell Lambson 58.3 8.18 3.24 1.23 90 -0.1 Mike Kinnunen
Jaye Chapman 49.0 8.82 4.41 1.10 89 -0.2 Bart Evans
Yhonathan Barrios 65.0 6.51 3.32 0.97 88 -0.2 Scott Munter
Brent Suter 117.3 6.60 3.61 1.38 76 -0.2 Matt White
David Goforth 68.0 7.15 4.37 0.93 87 -0.3 Jake Robbins
Hobbs Johnson 95.0 6.73 4.83 1.33 74 -0.3 Ryan Mills
Jeremy Horst 52.0 7.96 4.33 1.04 84 -0.3 Mark Watson
Jim Miller 62.0 7.69 2.32 1.45 84 -0.3 Jose Bautista
Jorge Lopez 133.0 7.85 3.65 1.62 74 -0.4 Brandon Knight
Damien Magnifico 52.3 6.02 3.79 1.20 78 -0.5 Mark Zamarripa
Adrian Houser 107.3 6.88 3.86 1.43 73 -0.5 Jeff Schmidt
Josh Roenicke 93.7 5.28 3.36 1.54 71 -0.7 Aaron Small
Pat Misch 72.7 4.83 3.09 1.61 69 -0.7 Robert Lee
Daniel Tillman 48.0 7.13 4.69 1.50 72 -0.8 Brad Tweedlie
Jorge Ortega 117.3 4.22 1.30 1.92 66 -1.3 John Gardner

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Cory Settoon
Member
3 months 22 days ago

A double Jim Beattie comp on back to back players!

What a time to be alive.

tz
Member
tz
3 months 22 days ago

Good thing for the Brewers both comps are on pitchers!

shoewizard
Member
Member
shoewizard
3 months 22 days ago

Can you give us the Jean Segura projection, as he has been traded recently. Doesn’t show up on D Backs as that post came out before the trade. Thanks !

Cory Settoon
Member
3 months 22 days ago

There’s only a couple of teams left and then all ZiPS Projections will be out.

indyralph
Member
Member
indyralph
3 months 22 days ago

ick

Robert L
Member
Robert L
3 months 22 days ago

Arcia comped to Yount, that’s pretty nice for Brewers’ fans

grandbranyan
Member
grandbranyan
3 months 22 days ago

And Carter with the Rob Deer comp just below, double boner.

NaterJ
Member
NaterJ
3 months 22 days ago

I saw that. I noticed the comps for 4 out of the top 5 player projections are all old Brewers (Hisle, Sundberg, Yount, & Deer). Coincidence?

Slacker George
Member
Member
Slacker George
3 months 22 days ago

I’d take the “better” on the Jorge Lopez projection. That’s brutal.

QuickerPickerUpper
Member
QuickerPickerUpper
3 months 22 days ago

agreed, i can’t fathom he’d be that terrible

QuickerPickerUpper
Member
QuickerPickerUpper
3 months 22 days ago

Why is Lohse in this?

NaterJ
Member
NaterJ
3 months 22 days ago

Unsigned free agent

cwsoxfan
Member
cwsoxfan
3 months 22 days ago

I see some upside / possible WC, with this team. They should punish LHP.

Jason B
Member
Jason B
3 months 21 days ago

I see a solid 70-72 wins. That pitching staff tho. Yuck.

oh Hal
Member
oh Hal
3 months 22 days ago

I’d guess Nelson is the opening day starter.

Radermecher
Member
Radermecher
3 months 20 days ago

Looks like Arcia has quite a comp,no pressure there.

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