2016 ZiPS Projections – Minnesota Twins

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Kansas City / New York AL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
At some level, the ZiPS projections for Minnesota — and, in particular, for the positional corps of the club — represent a best-case scenario: despite having dealt with injury in recent years, wunderkind prospects Byron Buxton and third baseman/left fielder Miguel Sano already possess two of the top-three WAR forecasts on the team. This is, in a sense, a desirable outcome: the organization’s most promising young players have developed, it would seem, into its most productive contributors.

Unfortunately, Buxton and Sano receive merely three-win projections — as opposed to, like, five-win ones. Which means that, if those two are the club’s “most productive contributors,” then the other contributors profile as roughly average or below that. The Twins actually do seem to possess quite a few players (Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Joe Mauer, Byung-ho Park, Trevor Plouffe) in the dependably average range — and in the era of two wild cards, average isn’t entirely undesirable. Given the current roster, however, it would appear as though “sneaking” into the postseason represents the team’s upside.

Pitchers
In 2015, Twins starting pitchers recorded a collective park-adjusted ERA roughly 2% higher than their collective park-adjusted FIP. Or, worded differently: the rotation posted an ERA- two points higher than its FIP-. In theory, those two numbers (ERA- and FIP-) ought to resemble each other pretty much. That said, the two-point difference for the Twins was the best for the club’s rotation over the past five years.

Regard:

Twins Starting Pitchers: ERA- vs. FIP-, 2011-15
Season IP ERA- FIP- Diff
2015 928 102 100 2
2014 913 131 106 25
2013 871 130 117 13
2012 880 131 123 8
2011 961 113 106 7
Avg 911 121 110 11

On average, over the past five years, Twins starters have recorded ERA- figures roughly 11 points higher than their FIP- ones. There are a couple ways for that to happen. One is possibly the defense. Another is possibly the club’s pitchers are poor at managing contact. Regardless, it appears to be a trend. And it’s a trend that manifests itself in the projections produced by Dan Szymborski’s computer. Because look: Kyle Gibson (176.1 IP, 103 ERA-, 96 FIP-) and Phil Hughes (167.0 IP, 101 ERA-, 86 FIP-) and Ervin Santana (141.2 IP, 111 ERA-, 103 FIP-) and others are all forecast to allow more runs than the most popular and simple ERA estimator suggests they should.

Bench/Prospects
The author of 22 career major-league plate appearances, infielder Wilfredo Tovar (431 PA, 1.1 zWAR) is a candidate to augment that figure this year after having left the Mets as a minor-league free agent. He profiles as a competent bench player — the best in the organization, per ZiPS. Compelling German outfielder Max Kepler (488 PA, 0.9 zWAR) receives probably the most promising projection among the club’s rookie-eligible position players after an excellent minor-league season. As for pitchers, talented right-hander Jose Berrios (146.1 IP, 1.7 zWAR) unsurprisingly receives the top projection among the team’s prospects, following a season in which his numbers matched his stuff.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Twins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Minnesota Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Brian Dozier R 29 2B 649 90 140 33 3 24 70 14 5
Miguel Sano R 23 3B 511 68 111 24 3 26 76 4 3
Byron Buxton R 22 CF 408 46 101 14 6 9 37 15 5
Byung-ho Park R 29 1B 613 80 147 26 1 27 84 6 2
Trevor Plouffe R 30 3B 569 64 130 30 3 18 75 2 1
Eduardo Escobar B 27 SS 437 49 103 27 4 9 45 3 3
Joe Mauer L 33 1B 571 62 139 28 2 8 58 2 1
Eddie Rosario L 24 LF 525 62 127 22 9 13 56 9 7
Wilfredo Tovar R 24 SS 431 47 103 13 2 3 35 17 10
Jorge Polanco B 22 SS 590 59 138 23 4 9 53 14 10
JR Murphy R 25 C 316 34 71 16 1 7 30 1 1
Stuart Turner R 24 C 329 32 67 11 1 5 27 4 2
Max Kepler L 23 RF 488 54 112 25 6 9 53 9 3
Danny Santana B 25 SS 530 62 130 24 8 6 48 17 7
Eduardo Nunez R 29 SS 269 30 65 12 3 4 25 11 4
Kurt Suzuki R 32 C 433 32 99 20 0 4 47 1 0
Buck Britton L 30 3B 456 47 108 17 2 9 46 5 3
John Hicks R 26 C 362 38 75 14 2 5 32 8 4
Jose Martinez R 30 3B 419 42 99 17 1 7 41 3 2
Oswaldo Arcia L 25 RF 465 52 103 20 2 20 62 2 2
Joe Benson R 28 RF 378 40 71 15 2 6 32 8 2
Juan Centeno L 26 C 274 23 63 8 2 0 19 2 1
James Beresford L 27 2B 507 47 121 19 2 1 35 4 3
Kennys Vargas B 25 1B 509 59 110 18 1 19 62 0 1
Argenis Diaz R 29 SS 396 33 84 16 1 1 25 4 3
Reynaldo Rodriguez R 29 1B 508 59 110 30 3 16 60 6 4
Jordan Schafer L 29 CF 192 21 39 7 1 1 14 14 5
Doug Bernier R 36 3B 342 32 70 12 1 2 24 2 2
Daniel Palka L 24 RF 497 52 98 21 3 15 53 11 5
Darin Mastroianni R 30 CF 383 36 81 15 2 3 30 15 3
Heiker Meneses R 24 2B 427 37 89 11 2 1 27 11 9
Keury de la Cruz L 24 LF 445 37 94 18 2 8 39 5 6
Eric Farris R 30 2B 423 37 96 14 1 2 28 12 5
Adam Brett Walker R 24 LF 559 65 110 21 2 23 78 8 3
Wilkin Ramirez R 30 RF 246 21 53 12 2 4 22 3 1
Travis Harrison R 23 RF 514 52 100 23 2 6 44 3 7

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Brian Dozier 649 9.1% 19.6% .193 .270 .244 .318 .437 .333
Miguel Sano 511 11.4% 32.5% .242 .329 .249 .337 .491 .357
Byron Buxton 408 5.6% 26.5% .139 .347 .266 .310 .405 .322
Byung-ho Park 613 7.8% 28.4% .197 .338 .266 .333 .463 .344
Trevor Plouffe 569 7.9% 19.5% .175 .287 .252 .315 .427 .322
Eduardo Escobar 437 5.9% 20.1% .153 .304 .256 .302 .409 .308
Joe Mauer 571 11.0% 17.2% .111 .327 .276 .356 .387 .318
Eddie Rosario 525 4.2% 23.8% .159 .315 .256 .287 .415 .308
Wilfredo Tovar 431 4.9% 11.8% .065 .287 .258 .300 .323 .289
Jorge Polanco 590 5.8% 18.1% .106 .294 .250 .292 .356 .295
JR Murphy 316 6.3% 21.2% .134 .292 .245 .295 .379 .295
Stuart Turner 329 6.4% 22.8% .093 .277 .222 .277 .315 .267
Max Kepler 488 7.4% 18.2% .144 .294 .252 .310 .396 .312
Danny Santana 530 3.2% 21.5% .116 .325 .260 .289 .376 .295
Eduardo Nunez 269 4.8% 14.5% .120 .292 .260 .297 .380 .305
Kurt Suzuki 433 6.0% 11.8% .081 .278 .253 .305 .334 .277
Buck Britton 456 4.8% 15.1% .112 .280 .252 .290 .364 .289
John Hicks 362 4.1% 24.6% .097 .280 .220 .255 .317 .259
Jose Martinez 419 4.3% 11.0% .102 .268 .253 .288 .355 .283
Oswaldo Arcia 465 6.2% 29.2% .197 .304 .242 .299 .439 .317
Joe Benson 378 7.4% 28.6% .110 .285 .209 .281 .319 .273
Juan Centeno 274 4.4% 15.3% .047 .292 .247 .280 .294 .252
James Beresford 507 4.5% 14.2% .055 .296 .255 .289 .310 .266
Kennys Vargas 509 7.7% 27.9% .167 .298 .238 .301 .405 .306
Argenis Diaz 396 5.1% 20.5% .057 .288 .228 .270 .285 .250
Reynaldo Rodriguez 508 5.5% 21.1% .178 .266 .234 .278 .412 .302
Jordan Schafer 192 8.3% 25.0% .070 .311 .228 .294 .298 .281
Doug Bernier 342 6.4% 21.9% .064 .289 .226 .282 .290 .256
Daniel Palka 497 7.0% 33.0% .159 .296 .215 .274 .374 .289
Darin Mastroianni 383 5.5% 21.1% .079 .287 .229 .276 .308 .268
Heiker Meneses 427 4.0% 23.2% .046 .297 .226 .267 .272 .250
Keury de la Cruz 445 4.3% 30.6% .109 .306 .223 .256 .332 .264
Eric Farris 423 4.0% 13.0% .056 .274 .242 .274 .298 .261
Adam Brett Walker 559 5.2% 39.0% .179 .303 .210 .252 .389 .282
Wilkin Ramirez 246 2.8% 28.0% .118 .297 .225 .248 .343 .260
Travis Harrison 514 8.2% 24.5% .098 .284 .218 .294 .316 .279

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Brian Dozier 649 5.1 106 -1 3.0 Dan Uggla
Miguel Sano 511 5.9 125 -6 3.0 Nick Esasky
Byron Buxton 408 4.8 95 13 2.9 Lastings Milledge
Byung-ho Park 613 5.7 117 2 2.3 Richie Sexson
Trevor Plouffe 569 4.9 103 -2 2.3 Steve Buechele
Eduardo Escobar 437 4.4 94 1 1.8 Kurt Stillwell
Joe Mauer 571 5.1 105 5 1.5 Bruce Bochte
Eddie Rosario 525 4.2 91 8 1.2 Alex Ramirez
Wilfredo Tovar 431 3.4 72 5 1.1 Jonathan Herrera
Jorge Polanco 590 3.6 78 -1 1.0 Onix Concepcion
JR Murphy 316 4.0 85 -2 1.0 Geronimo Gil
Stuart Turner 329 3.0 63 5 0.9 Matt Treanor
Max Kepler 488 4.5 93 1 0.9 Not *That* Brian Giles
Danny Santana 530 4.0 82 -4 0.8 Cristian Guzman
Eduardo Nunez 269 4.3 85 0 0.8 Joe Inglett
Kurt Suzuki 433 3.7 77 -3 0.8 John Flaherty
Buck Britton 456 3.8 79 0 0.6 Robert Eenhoorn
John Hicks 362 2.8 57 5 0.5 Jose Lobaton
Jose Martinez 419 3.7 76 0 0.4 Pete Rose Jr.
Oswaldo Arcia 465 4.6 100 -6 0.3 Brad Hawpe
Joe Benson 378 3.2 65 8 0.1 Kevin Koslofski
Juan Centeno 274 3.0 59 0 0.1 Doyle Balthazar
James Beresford 507 3.2 66 3 0.0 Marty Wilkerson
Kennys Vargas 509 4.3 93 -3 -0.2 Mark Higgins
Argenis Diaz 396 2.6 54 3 -0.2 Gary Green
Reynaldo Rodriguez 508 4.0 87 -1 -0.4 Kevin Young
Jordan Schafer 192 3.3 64 -4 -0.4 Jeff Duncan
Doug Bernier 342 2.8 59 0 -0.4 Jeff Branson
Daniel Palka 497 3.5 77 -1 -0.5 Jimmy Hurst
Darin Mastroianni 383 3.3 61 -4 -0.6 Ryan Knox
Heiker Meneses 427 2.4 50 3 -0.8 Wade Robinson
Keury de la Cruz 445 2.8 61 4 -1.0 Dominick Ambrosini
Eric Farris 423 3.0 58 -5 -1.1 Casey Smith
Adam Brett Walker 559 3.4 74 -4 -1.1 Darryel Walters
Wilkin Ramirez 246 3.0 61 -5 -1.3 Mike Rosamond
Travis Harrison 514 3.0 69 -5 -1.6 Felix Colon

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Phil Hughes R 30 27 26 167.0 129 16 20 181 81 76
Kyle Gibson R 28 30 30 176.3 126 57 16 178 88 82
Jose Berrios R 22 26 26 146.3 130 40 17 149 73 68
Ervin Santana R 33 23 23 141.7 104 43 17 150 76 71
Tyler Duffey R 25 27 26 151.3 110 40 18 164 82 77
Tommy Milone L 29 27 26 148.0 114 40 21 159 81 76
Trevor May R 26 35 21 124.0 111 43 14 130 67 63
Alex Meyer R 26 30 15 100.0 96 50 11 100 55 51
Glen Perkins L 33 56 0 54.7 57 12 6 51 22 21
Kevin Jepsen R 31 71 0 61.3 59 24 6 56 27 25
Taylor Rogers L 25 25 25 143.7 90 44 16 165 85 79
Casey Fien R 32 66 0 59.3 50 11 7 59 27 25
Michael Tonkin R 26 63 0 65.0 58 18 7 64 30 28
Lester Oliveros R 28 30 2 39.7 42 17 5 37 19 18
Michael Bowden R 29 36 8 76.7 56 28 9 81 42 39
Ricky Nolasco R 33 19 19 105.7 81 26 14 121 62 58
Neal Cotts L 36 63 0 58.7 55 20 7 56 28 26
Ryan Pressly R 27 46 0 62.0 50 24 5 62 30 28
Fernando Abad L 30 62 0 50.0 45 16 6 48 24 22
Blaine Boyer R 34 59 0 59.3 39 16 5 62 29 27
J.R. Graham R 26 43 0 49.3 38 17 4 52 25 23
Scott Atchison R 40 38 0 35.3 24 8 4 37 18 17
Mark Hamburger R 29 36 5 67.0 50 24 8 72 37 35
J.T. Chargois R 25 37 0 36.3 33 17 4 36 19 18
David Hurlbut L 26 20 14 85.3 44 28 10 100 52 49
Brandon Kintzler R 31 49 0 48.0 31 13 5 53 26 24
Corey Williams L 25 31 0 30.0 21 17 3 32 17 16
Logan Darnell L 27 30 15 103.7 74 40 14 116 63 59
Brian Duensing L 33 57 0 49.0 33 19 5 52 27 25
Yorman Landa R 22 20 0 30.7 28 17 4 31 18 17
Nick Burdi R 23 36 0 48.0 51 26 6 46 27 25
Randy Rosario L 22 10 10 44.3 29 22 6 51 30 28
Brett Lee L 25 21 20 110.7 49 41 13 132 71 66
Ryan O’Rourke L 28 47 0 39.0 40 19 6 38 22 21
Aaron Thompson L 29 54 0 52.3 35 20 6 57 30 28
Jake Reed R 23 37 0 49.7 36 16 6 55 29 27
David Martinez R 28 37 9 84.3 48 32 10 97 54 50
Mason Melotakis L 25 24 6 58.0 38 30 8 67 39 36
Pat Dean L 27 25 25 147.3 69 34 24 183 100 93
Greg Peavey R 27 29 20 122.7 71 41 24 150 91 85
Jason Wheeler L 25 24 24 127.3 72 49 26 159 98 92

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Phil Hughes 167.0 698 18.5% 2.3% .304 4.10 3.46 101 86
Kyle Gibson 176.3 764 16.5% 7.5% .289 4.19 3.86 103 96
Jose Berrios 146.3 628 20.7% 6.4% .305 4.18 3.82 103 95
Ervin Santana 141.7 618 16.8% 7.0% .295 4.51 4.15 111 103
Tyler Duffey 151.3 658 16.7% 6.1% .302 4.58 4.13 113 103
Tommy Milone 148.0 643 17.7% 6.2% .297 4.62 4.28 114 107
Trevor May 124.0 545 20.4% 7.9% .312 4.57 3.92 113 98
Alex Meyer 100.0 450 21.3% 11.1% .309 4.59 4.27 113 106
Glen Perkins 54.7 227 25.1% 5.3% .298 3.46 3.11 85 77
Kevin Jepsen 61.3 264 22.4% 9.1% .288 3.67 3.63 91 90
Taylor Rogers 143.7 640 14.1% 6.9% .309 4.95 4.37 122 109
Casey Fien 59.3 248 20.2% 4.4% .289 3.79 3.46 93 86
Michael Tonkin 65.0 277 20.9% 6.5% .298 3.88 3.60 96 90
Lester Oliveros 39.7 173 24.3% 9.8% .299 4.08 3.99 101 99
Michael Bowden 76.7 339 16.5% 8.3% .297 4.58 4.38 113 109
Ricky Nolasco 105.7 464 17.5% 5.6% .316 4.94 4.12 122 103
Neal Cotts 58.7 252 21.8% 7.9% .293 3.99 3.86 98 96
Ryan Pressly 62.0 272 18.4% 8.8% .297 4.06 3.65 100 91
Fernando Abad 50.0 214 21.0% 7.5% .290 3.96 3.83 98 95
Blaine Boyer 59.3 256 15.2% 6.3% .291 4.10 3.59 101 90
J.R. Graham 49.3 217 17.5% 7.8% .312 4.20 3.90 104 97
Scott Atchison 35.3 151 15.9% 5.3% .290 4.33 3.90 107 97
Mark Hamburger 67.0 297 16.8% 8.1% .302 4.70 4.33 116 108
J.T. Chargois 36.3 162 20.4% 10.5% .302 4.46 4.29 110 107
David Hurlbut 85.3 384 11.5% 7.3% .303 5.17 4.76 128 119
Brandon Kintzler 48.0 210 14.8% 6.2% .300 4.50 3.98 111 99
Corey Williams 30.0 139 15.1% 12.2% .299 4.80 4.81 118 120
Logan Darnell 103.7 467 15.8% 8.6% .306 5.12 4.74 126 118
Brian Duensing 49.0 218 15.1% 8.7% .296 4.59 4.19 113 104
Yorman Landa 30.7 140 20.0% 12.1% .303 4.99 4.73 123 118
Nick Burdi 48.0 216 23.6% 12.0% .308 4.69 4.42 116 110
Randy Rosario 44.3 206 14.1% 10.7% .306 5.68 5.18 140 129
Brett Lee 110.7 505 9.7% 8.1% .301 5.37 5.05 132 126
Ryan O’Rourke 39.0 174 23.0% 10.9% .299 4.85 4.52 120 113
Aaron Thompson 52.3 234 15.0% 8.6% .298 4.82 4.41 119 110
Jake Reed 49.7 220 16.4% 7.3% .308 4.89 4.37 121 109
David Martinez 84.3 382 12.6% 8.4% .303 5.34 4.72 132 118
Mason Melotakis 58.0 271 14.0% 11.1% .309 5.59 5.35 138 133
Pat Dean 147.3 659 10.5% 5.2% .303 5.68 5.14 140 128
Greg Peavey 122.7 559 12.7% 7.3% .303 6.24 5.64 154 141
Jason Wheeler 127.3 590 12.2% 8.3% .306 6.50 5.97 160 149

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Phil Hughes 167.0 6.95 0.86 1.08 97 2.2 Brad Radke
Kyle Gibson 176.3 6.43 2.91 0.82 95 2.1 Mike Dunne
Jose Berrios 146.3 8.00 2.46 1.05 95 1.7 Adam Wainwright
Ervin Santana 141.7 6.61 2.73 1.08 89 1.1 Aaron Sele
Tyler Duffey 151.3 6.54 2.38 1.07 87 1.1 Bryan Clutterbuck
Tommy Milone 148.0 6.93 2.43 1.28 86 1.0 Scott Downs
Trevor May 124.0 8.06 3.12 1.02 87 0.8 Mike Fetters
Alex Meyer 100.0 8.64 4.50 0.99 87 0.5 Chad Reineke
Glen Perkins 54.7 9.38 1.97 0.99 115 0.5 Dan Plesac
Kevin Jepsen 61.3 8.66 3.52 0.88 109 0.5 Mike DeJean
Taylor Rogers 143.7 5.64 2.76 1.00 81 0.4 Wes Whisler
Casey Fien 59.3 7.59 1.67 1.06 105 0.4 Dan Giese
Michael Tonkin 65.0 8.03 2.49 0.97 103 0.4 Jose Acevedo
Lester Oliveros 39.7 9.52 3.85 1.13 98 0.3 Bo Donaldson
Michael Bowden 76.7 6.57 3.29 1.06 87 0.2 Leo Estrella
Ricky Nolasco 105.7 6.90 2.21 1.19 81 0.2 Kevin Jarvis
Neal Cotts 58.7 8.43 3.07 1.07 100 0.2 Ron Mahay
Ryan Pressly 62.0 7.26 3.48 0.73 98 0.2 Mike Cather
Fernando Abad 50.0 8.10 2.88 1.08 101 0.2 Jeff Fassero
Blaine Boyer 59.3 5.92 2.43 0.76 97 0.1 Todd Williams
J.R. Graham 49.3 6.94 3.10 0.73 95 0.0 Jerry Reed
Scott Atchison 35.3 6.12 2.04 1.02 92 0.0 Boom-Boom Beck
Mark Hamburger 67.0 6.72 3.22 1.07 85 0.0 Weston Weber
J.T. Chargois 36.3 8.18 4.21 0.99 90 0.0 Jeff Smith
David Hurlbut 85.3 4.64 2.95 1.06 77 -0.1 John Courtright
Brandon Kintzler 48.0 5.81 2.44 0.94 89 -0.1 Bob Duliba
Corey Williams 30.0 6.30 5.10 0.90 83 -0.2 Dean Brueggemann
Logan Darnell 103.7 6.42 3.47 1.22 78 -0.2 Kevin Rawitzer
Brian Duensing 49.0 6.06 3.49 0.92 87 -0.2 Mike Venafro
Yorman Landa 30.7 8.21 4.98 1.17 80 -0.2 Ryan Henderson
Nick Burdi 48.0 9.56 4.88 1.13 85 -0.3 Rickey Keeton
Randy Rosario 44.3 5.89 4.47 1.22 70 -0.3 Corwin Malone
Brett Lee 110.7 3.98 3.33 1.06 74 -0.3 Wes Whisler
Ryan O’Rourke 39.0 9.23 4.38 1.38 82 -0.3 Chris Blazek
Aaron Thompson 52.3 6.02 3.44 1.03 83 -0.3 Mark Watson
Jake Reed 49.7 6.52 2.90 1.09 82 -0.4 Scott Gentile
David Martinez 84.3 5.12 3.42 1.07 75 -0.5 Edwin Corps
Mason Melotakis 58.0 5.90 4.66 1.24 71 -0.6 Wes Pierorazio
Pat Dean 147.3 4.22 2.08 1.47 70 -1.1 Randy Marshall
Greg Peavey 122.7 5.21 3.01 1.76 64 -1.9 Reggie Ritter
Jason Wheeler 127.3 5.09 3.46 1.84 61 -2.3 Doug Lindsey

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
raygu
Member
4 months 23 days ago

oh that Berrios comp…..

free-range turducken
Member
free-range turducken
4 months 23 days ago

…followed by the cold water of that Buxton comp.

Slacker George
Member
Member
Slacker George
4 months 23 days ago

Well, at least the comp wasn’t Lastings’ brother Drippings.

Goldsteins_Tool_Fedora
Member
Goldsteins_Tool_Fedora
4 months 23 days ago

Weird on the Trevor May stats. IMO May was one of the most undervalued and miss used pitchers in 2015. The Twins really need to put him in the rotation and not was him in the bullpen. He has proven he has the command and body to be a 200 inning pitcher. The stuff plays up in the pen, but its a waste, when youre starting Tommy Milone.

Bryz
Member
4 months 22 days ago

Milone isn’t the pitcher that concerns me in the rotation.

TwinPeaks
Member
TwinPeaks
4 months 23 days ago

A completely below average rotation! Ouch. Thought Duffey would get a decent projection.

Owen S
Member
Owen S
4 months 23 days ago

Wow, those projections seem mighty high for Mauer and Park. If Park is worth 2ish WAR over the next four years, the Twins got 8ish WAR for $24M: that’s a damn good deal. I wonder how Zips translates KBO stats (he said innocently, prompting a response from Dan).

Art Vandelay
Member
Member
Art Vandelay
4 months 23 days ago

Many people have said that the Park deal has a lot of potential to be a steal. I agree completely on the Mauer projection though, I’ll believe it when I see it.

Dan Szymborski
Member
Dan Szymborski
4 months 23 days ago

It’s quite depressing that we’ve gotten to a time and place in which we have to argue whether or not a 1.5 WAR projection for Mauer is mighty high or not.

tz
Member
tz
4 months 23 days ago

Very sad to see. One of my favorite star players reduced to somewhere between Ross Gload and Bruce Bochte.

d_i
Member
Member
d_i
4 months 23 days ago

I know zips doesn’t predicted playing time in the majors, but in regards to that/the depth chart, I have a few thoughts:
1. I’ll take the way under on Berrios innings. They’ve come this far without starting his clock and have guys getting paid in front of him so I’d be surprised if he sees the majors before super 2.
2. If Sano actually does play OF, wouldn’t he be in right with Rosario in left? Rosario displayed a good arm last year, but Sano has a cannon.
3. I hope this is how it plays out with CF, but I won’t be at all surprised if they send Buxton to AAA and go with a Santana/Rosario combo – would also clear some ABs for Arcia, but would be a defensive disaster with the pitch to contact staff.

Timothy
Member
Member
Timothy
4 months 23 days ago

Twins hitters have the most fun comps so far. Probably way more fun than the 2016 Twins will be to watch.

wily mo
Member
4 months 23 days ago

pete rose…. jr

bartelsjason
Member
bartelsjason
4 months 23 days ago

The hitters will not be this good, but the pitchers will not be this bad. So, it will likely be a wash and they will be an average to below average team.

SgtSchmidt11
Member
SgtSchmidt11
4 months 23 days ago

Sano 27 HR’s? Give me the over. By 10… or 15…

Brent Henry
Member
Brent Henry
4 months 22 days ago

Phil Hughes top comp Brad Radke – that’s so Twins!

dl80
Member
dl80
4 months 22 days ago

Where’s Eric Milton??

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