2016 ZiPS Projections – New York Mets

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Kansas City / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
While not particularly relevant to the 2016 edition of the Mets, it’s difficult to examine the ZiPS projections below without also acknowledging the system’s relative optimism concerning free-agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes (629 PA, 4.4 zWAR). The gap between Cespedes’s forecasted win total and Michael Conforto‘s second-best mark is equivalent to the gap between Conforto’s mark and the average of the club’s 11th- and 12th-best hitter projections. In other words: for whatever Cespedes’s flaws, his strengths appear capable of compensating for them at the moment.

Which isn’t to ignore another of the system’s perhaps surprsing outputs — namely, the projection for Conforto himself. Entering just his age-23 season, Conforto began the 2015 campaign as the left fielder for the High-A St. Lucie Mets. He’s expected to play that same position for the actual New York version of the team on opening day this year — and, it would seem, is a candidate to produce wins at a higher rate than any of his teammates.

In general, what the Mets feature is essentially the antithesis of a stars-and-scrubs configuration. The success of the club relies not on elite performances by one or two players, but rather the competence of the entire starting eight.

Pitchers
Much of what Muhammad Ali said regarding his own self applies also to the pitchers at the top of the Mets’ rotation: the triumvirate of Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard are each some combination of young, handsome, and fast. With regard to the possibility that any of them might be beat, it certainly exists, but not in great volume. Among the 17 clubs for whom projections have now been released, the forecasted WAR for the threesome is surpassed (it would appear) only by the Cubs’ top three pitchers — although the third member of the group (John Lackey) receives a lesser projection than the Mets No. 3, Syndergaard.

With regard to the bullpen, this would appear — by the projections, at least — to remain the weakest link in the club’s metaphorical chain. Of course, the numbers here account neither for breakout performances nor how manager Terry Collins leverages the arms available to him. Still, one finds that few of the other clubs examined in this series are expected to extract merely two wins collectively from their top-five relievers. Jeurys Familia (77.0 IP, 1.2 zWAR) represents a strong foundation for the bullpen. Adding a piece or two would be of some benefit.

Bench/Prospects
The Mets currently employ a small army of serviceable middle infielders. While Asdrubal Cabrera is perhaps the weakest among the club’s starting field players, each of Gavin Cecchini (538 PA, 1.5 zWAR), Wilmer Flores (556 PA 1.7 zWAR), Dilson Herrera (569 PA, 2.5 zWAR) profile as, at worst, very strong bench options, offering a useful combination of offensive adequacy and defensive skill. Cecchini’s is the top projection among the club’s rookie-eligible batters. Among pitchers, there’s less immediate help from would-be rookies. Right-hander Rafael Montero (98.0 IP, 0.9 zWAR) exceeded his rookie limitations in 2015, but is probably the best among the pitchers omitted from the depth-chart graphic below.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Mets, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Mets Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Yoenis Cespedes R 30 LF 629 89 158 32 6 30 98 7 5
Michael Conforto L 23 LF 610 85 141 32 3 26 87 1 2
Lucas Duda L 30 1B 542 70 116 26 1 28 86 2 2
Neil Walker B 30 2B 562 68 131 27 3 19 71 3 2
Curtis Granderson L 35 RF 520 71 107 21 2 20 57 8 4
Travis d’Arnaud R 27 C 388 49 90 20 2 15 55 0 0
David Wright R 33 3B 474 56 112 21 2 10 54 7 3
Dilson Herrera R 22 2B 569 68 131 24 4 15 62 14 6
Juan Uribe R 37 3B 365 37 91 16 0 11 45 1 0
Juan Lagares R 27 CF 505 55 123 23 5 6 49 11 4
Asdrubal Cabrera B 30 SS 567 71 133 31 4 15 65 7 3
Wilmer Flores R 24 SS 556 65 136 27 3 15 70 1 2
Gavin Cecchini R 22 SS 538 61 124 24 4 8 52 4 4
Kevin Plawecki R 25 C 409 41 90 18 1 6 40 0 0
Alejandro De Aza L 32 LF 479 57 111 22 7 9 42 12 8
Matt Reynolds R 25 SS 482 52 100 19 4 6 43 9 3
Eric Campbell R 29 3B 385 47 81 17 1 7 39 7 3
Johnny Monell L 30 C 340 37 72 15 1 7 34 3 2
Ty Kelly B 27 2B 489 56 104 16 3 8 45 5 3
Daniel Muno B 27 3B 407 47 78 13 2 6 33 7 5
Brandon Nimmo L 23 CF 495 56 101 15 5 8 41 6 5
Jeff McNeil L 24 2B 478 52 107 17 4 2 35 9 5
Ruben Tejada R 26 SS 452 42 100 21 0 3 33 2 2
Travis Taijeron R 27 RF 443 54 79 19 1 17 54 1 2
Jayce Boyd R 25 1B 415 44 94 20 1 5 37 1 2
Zach Lutz R 30 3B 272 31 57 11 2 6 27 1 1
Darrell Ceciliani L 26 CF 371 41 83 13 4 7 36 14 4
Jonathan Galvez R 25 3B 379 40 77 18 2 5 33 6 3
Amed Rosario R 20 SS 427 37 85 16 4 2 29 8 4
LJ Mazzilli R 25 2B 438 45 94 18 3 5 37 5 2
Michael Cuddyer R 37 LF 316 34 73 15 1 8 32 2 0
Brooks Conrad B 36 2B 240 27 44 11 1 6 27 1 1
Brock Peterson R 32 1B 413 41 78 16 2 13 42 1 0
Cory Vaughn R 27 CF 330 35 58 11 2 7 31 7 2
Vince Belnome L 28 1B 404 41 75 17 2 5 32 2 0
Dominic Smith L 21 1B 538 55 118 27 1 8 55 2 3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Yoenis Cespedes 629 5.2% 21.0% .228 .298 .270 .312 .498 .346
Michael Conforto 610 8.0% 20.5% .211 .284 .255 .320 .466 .333
Lucas Duda 542 11.6% 24.0% .241 .283 .249 .349 .490 .357
Neil Walker 562 8.0% 18.0% .179 .289 .261 .330 .440 .333
Curtis Granderson 520 12.1% 23.3% .190 .279 .238 .335 .428 .337
Travis d’Arnaud 388 7.0% 17.8% .194 .275 .254 .312 .448 .325
David Wright 474 10.3% 19.6% .131 .319 .266 .344 .397 .326
Dilson Herrera 569 6.7% 21.4% .148 .300 .252 .307 .400 .315
Juan Uribe 365 6.0% 19.7% .144 .309 .267 .312 .411 .312
Juan Lagares 505 4.2% 20.2% .108 .318 .261 .297 .369 .293
Asdrubal Cabrera 567 7.1% 17.5% .163 .291 .258 .315 .421 .319
Wilmer Flores 556 4.5% 14.2% .150 .281 .262 .298 .412 .304
Gavin Cecchini 538 6.9% 17.7% .113 .293 .251 .303 .364 .297
Kevin Plawecki 409 5.6% 16.9% .102 .278 .241 .297 .343 .279
Alejandro De Aza 479 7.3% 21.1% .146 .314 .257 .319 .403 .322
Matt Reynolds 482 5.8% 23.9% .101 .287 .226 .277 .327 .272
Eric Campbell 385 10.6% 19.2% .119 .289 .243 .333 .362 .316
Johnny Monell 340 7.4% 22.4% .122 .283 .232 .291 .354 .286
Ty Kelly 489 10.0% 18.0% .106 .282 .240 .318 .346 .300
Daniel Muno 407 10.1% 22.9% .098 .278 .219 .305 .317 .286
Brandon Nimmo 495 9.9% 24.8% .112 .301 .230 .314 .342 .296
Jeff Mcneil 478 5.4% 15.9% .071 .293 .247 .301 .318 .279
Ruben Tejada 452 8.6% 16.4% .075 .298 .249 .324 .324 .284
Travis Taijeron 443 9.3% 39.3% .184 .307 .203 .291 .387 .299
Jayce Boyd 415 7.2% 17.3% .098 .293 .247 .307 .345 .291
Zach Lutz 272 8.1% 25.4% .135 .298 .235 .303 .370 .297
Darrell Ceciliani 371 5.1% 27.2% .122 .318 .241 .286 .363 .293
Jonathan Galvez 379 6.9% 26.6% .107 .299 .223 .284 .330 .275
Amed Rosario 427 4.4% 25.8% .075 .286 .212 .254 .287 .246
LJ Mazzilli 438 5.9% 21.9% .096 .289 .231 .281 .327 .273
Michael Cuddyer 316 5.7% 20.9% .140 .294 .248 .297 .388 .301
Brooks Conrad 240 7.1% 30.8% .142 .271 .202 .267 .344 .269
Brock Peterson 413 7.3% 31.5% .157 .275 .207 .271 .364 .277
Cory Vaughn 330 7.6% 34.2% .120 .283 .195 .267 .315 .266
Vince Belnome 404 10.6% 30.4% .101 .302 .210 .295 .311 .272
Dominic Smith 538 6.3% 22.1% .106 .293 .236 .284 .342 .275

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Yoenis Cespedes 629 5.7 125 10 4.4 Gary Ward
Michael Conforto 610 5.3 119 4 3.2 Adam Lind
Lucas Duda 542 6.1 135 1 3.2 Carlos Pena
Neil Walker 562 5.3 116 -3 3.0 Tony Bernazard
Curtis Granderson 520 5.1 114 3 2.6 Bill White
Travis d’Arnaud 388 5.1 112 -3 2.6 Dave Valle
David Wright 474 5.0 109 0 2.6 Don Hoak
Dilson Herrera 569 4.5 99 1 2.5 Marcus Giles
Juan Uribe 365 4.8 103 6 2.3 Ed Charles
Juan Lagares 505 4.1 87 9 2.2 Doug Glanville
Asdrubal Cabrera 567 4.9 107 -10 2.2 Joe Cronin
Wilmer Flores 556 4.4 99 -8 1.7 Bill Mazeroski
Gavin Cecchini 538 3.9 88 -3 1.5 Ron Wotus
Kevin Plawecki 409 3.6 81 0 1.4 Dan Walters
Alejandro De Aza 479 4.6 103 0 1.2 Al Martin
Matt Reynolds 482 3.2 71 4 1.1 Travis Dawkins
Eric Campbell 385 4.3 97 -5 1.1 Russ Johnson
Johnny Monell 340 3.6 82 -3 0.9 Chad Moeller
Ty Kelly 489 3.9 88 -5 0.9 Jeff McKnight
Daniel Muno 407 3.3 77 1 0.8 Rick Morris
Brandon Nimmo 495 3.7 86 -4 0.8 Rich Becker
Jeff McNeil 478 3.4 76 2 0.7 Martin Prado
Ruben Tejada 452 3.7 85 -7 0.6 Dave Chalk
Travis Taijeron 443 3.7 90 -2 0.4 Pat Adams
Jayce Boyd 415 3.7 85 5 0.4 Tim McWilliam
Zach Lutz 272 3.9 90 -4 0.3 Chris Saunders
Darrell Ceciliani 371 3.9 83 -5 0.3 Herm Winningham
Jonathan Galvez 379 3.3 74 -1 0.2 Adam Morrissey
Amed Rosario 427 2.5 53 6 0.2 Esteban Beltre
LJ Mazzilli 438 3.3 72 -3 -0.1 Lionel Hastings
Michael Cuddyer 316 4.2 92 -7 -0.2 Ruben Sierra
Brooks Conrad 240 3.1 72 -4 -0.4 Dave McKay
Brock Peterson 413 3.4 78 -1 -0.6 Kurt Airoso
Cory Vaughn 330 2.9 64 -6 -0.6 Jim Betzsold
Vince Belnome 404 3.2 72 1 -0.6 Howard Prager
Dominic Smith 538 3.4 77 2 -0.8 Adam LaRoche

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Jacob deGrom R 28 29 29 178.3 186 46 13 150 60 56
Matt Harvey R 27 26 26 170.3 161 41 12 143 59 55
Noah Syndergaard R 23 30 29 172.0 194 43 17 147 63 59
Steven Matz L 25 26 25 141.7 139 44 12 129 57 53
Zack Wheeler R 26 23 23 130.0 123 52 12 122 58 54
Jeurys Familia R 26 76 0 77.0 83 19 7 63 25 23
Bartolo Colon R 43 28 25 157.7 104 25 18 169 77 72
Rafael Montero R 25 23 20 98.0 91 34 10 92 45 42
Tyler Clippard R 31 68 0 65.0 73 25 7 50 24 22
Logan Verrett R 26 30 20 128.0 103 31 17 127 64 60
Zack Thornton R 28 56 0 68.0 66 21 5 62 27 25
Hansel Robles R 25 64 0 63.0 73 21 7 51 25 23
Dario Alvarez L 27 39 5 57.0 65 26 6 49 25 23
Addison Reed R 27 67 0 67.0 69 21 6 60 27 25
Jenrry Mejia R 26 35 0 37.0 42 13 3 32 14 13
Sean Gilmartin L 26 57 0 65.0 61 23 5 59 27 25
Paul Sewald R 26 44 0 53.7 53 16 5 49 21 20
Jerry Blevins L 32 36 0 31.0 33 10 3 26 12 11
Josh Edgin L 29 49 0 31.0 30 13 3 27 13 12
Jeff Walters R 28 35 0 35.0 32 10 3 32 15 14
Buddy Carlyle R 38 25 0 25.3 24 7 3 23 11 10
Erik Goeddel R 27 52 0 58.0 56 22 5 52 26 24
Akeel Morris R 23 48 0 55.7 72 33 6 44 25 23
Robert Gsellman R 22 22 22 122.0 76 42 12 131 66 62
Carlos Torres R 33 64 0 80.3 77 30 9 75 36 34
Eric O’Flaherty L 31 33 0 28.7 23 10 3 29 14 13
Stolmy Pimentel R 26 27 13 91.3 73 39 12 91 49 46
Josh Smoker L 27 42 0 49.0 52 23 5 44 24 22
Jim Henderson R 33 36 0 35.7 40 15 5 32 18 17
Cody Satterwhite R 29 45 0 55.3 54 25 6 51 27 25
Bobby Parnell R 31 41 0 38.7 29 20 3 39 20 19
John Church R 29 55 0 64.3 50 19 7 65 32 30
Vic Black R 28 51 0 48.7 48 31 6 45 27 25
Darin Gorski L 28 22 21 110.0 92 48 17 113 65 61
Seth Lugo R 26 22 15 106.0 94 39 18 110 64 60
Gabriel Ynoa R 23 25 24 143.7 84 33 26 168 95 89

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Jacob deGrom 178.3 731 25.4% 6.3% .283 2.83 2.80 77 72
Matt Harvey 170.3 695 23.2% 5.9% .275 2.91 2.96 79 76
Noah Syndergaard 172.0 706 27.5% 6.1% .291 3.09 2.99 84 77
Steven Matz 141.7 598 23.2% 7.4% .295 3.37 3.34 92 85
Zack Wheeler 130.0 564 21.8% 9.2% .297 3.74 3.79 102 97
Jeurys Familia 77.0 313 26.5% 6.1% .277 2.69 2.97 73 76
Bartolo Colon 157.7 667 15.6% 3.7% .291 4.11 3.77 112 96
Rafael Montero 98.0 420 21.7% 8.1% .291 3.86 3.70 105 95
Tyler Clippard 65.0 270 27.0% 9.3% .265 3.05 3.56 83 91
Logan Verrett 128.0 542 19.0% 5.7% .286 4.22 4.10 115 105
Zack Thornton 68.0 287 23.0% 7.3% .297 3.31 3.10 90 79
Hansel Robles 63.0 261 28.0% 8.0% .278 3.29 3.34 89 85
Dario Alvarez 57.0 246 26.4% 10.6% .297 3.63 3.83 99 98
Addison Reed 67.0 282 24.5% 7.4% .292 3.36 3.07 91 79
Jenrry Mejia 37.0 156 26.9% 8.3% .299 3.16 2.84 86 73
Sean Gilmartin 65.0 277 22.0% 8.3% .290 3.46 3.26 94 83
Paul Sewald 53.7 226 23.4% 7.1% .295 3.35 3.40 91 87
Jerry Blevins 31.0 129 25.6% 7.8% .280 3.19 3.16 87 81
Josh Edgin 31.0 133 22.6% 9.8% .279 3.48 3.84 95 98
Jeff Walters 35.0 147 21.8% 6.8% .290 3.60 3.48 98 89
Buddy Carlyle 25.3 106 22.7% 6.6% .282 3.55 3.76 97 96
Erik Goeddel 58.0 248 22.6% 8.9% .288 3.72 3.49 101 89
Akeel Morris 55.7 244 29.5% 13.5% .292 3.72 3.86 101 99
Robert Gsellman 122.0 539 14.1% 7.8% .296 4.57 4.38 124 112
Carlos Torres 80.3 346 22.3% 8.7% .288 3.81 3.71 104 95
Eric O’Flaherty 28.7 125 18.4% 8.0% .295 4.08 3.96 111 101
Stolmy Pimentel 91.3 404 18.1% 9.7% .287 4.53 4.69 123 120
Josh Smoker 49.0 214 24.3% 10.7% .295 4.04 3.84 110 98
Jim Henderson 35.7 154 26.0% 9.7% .290 4.29 3.92 117 100
Cody Satterwhite 55.3 242 22.3% 10.3% .292 4.07 4.08 111 104
Bobby Parnell 38.7 175 16.6% 11.4% .295 4.42 4.22 120 108
John Church 64.3 277 18.1% 6.9% .293 4.20 4.00 114 102
Vic Black 48.7 222 21.6% 14.0% .291 4.62 4.76 126 122
Darin Gorski 110.0 491 18.7% 9.8% .293 4.99 4.97 136 127
Seth Lugo 106.0 467 20.1% 8.4% .297 5.09 4.87 138 125
Gabriel Ynoa 143.7 632 13.3% 5.2% .295 5.58 5.18 152 132

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Jacob deGrom 178.3 9.39 2.32 0.66 126 4.3 Ben McDonald
Matt Harvey 170.3 8.51 2.17 0.63 123 3.9 Curt Schilling
Noah Syndergaard 172.0 10.15 2.25 0.89 116 3.6 Kevin Millwood
Steven Matz 141.7 8.83 2.79 0.76 106 2.4 Danny Jackson
Zack Wheeler 130.0 8.52 3.60 0.83 96 1.5 Ken Hill
Jeurys Familia 77.0 9.70 2.22 0.82 133 1.2 Billy Koch
Bartolo Colon 157.7 5.94 1.43 1.03 87 1.0 Jim Bunning
Rafael Montero 98.0 8.36 3.12 0.92 93 0.9 Jaret Wright
Tyler Clippard 65.0 10.11 3.46 0.97 117 0.7 John Hudek
Logan Verrett 128.0 7.24 2.18 1.20 85 0.5 Travis Harper
Zack Thornton 68.0 8.74 2.78 0.66 108 0.5 Steve Schmoll
Hansel Robles 63.0 10.43 3.00 1.00 109 0.4 Steve Chitren
Dario Alvarez 57.0 10.26 4.11 0.95 98 0.4 Ricky Pickett
Addison Reed 67.0 9.27 2.82 0.81 106 0.4 Rich Monteleone
Jenrry Mejia 37.0 10.22 3.16 0.73 113 0.3 Francisco Cordero
Sean Gilmartin 65.0 8.45 3.18 0.69 103 0.3 Juan Agosto
Paul Sewald 53.7 8.88 2.68 0.84 106 0.3 Scott Winchester
Jerry Blevins 31.0 9.58 2.90 0.87 112 0.3 Lance Painter
Josh Edgin 31.0 8.71 3.77 0.87 102 0.1 Tom Martin
Jeff Walters 35.0 8.23 2.57 0.77 99 0.1 Ray Soff
Buddy Carlyle 25.3 8.54 2.49 1.07 100 0.1 Matt Whiteside
Erik Goeddel 58.0 8.69 3.41 0.78 96 0.1 Miguel Saladin
Akeel Morris 55.7 11.63 5.33 0.97 96 0.1 Dana Ridenour
Robert Gsellman 122.0 5.61 3.10 0.89 78 0.0 Preston Larrison
Carlos Torres 80.3 8.63 3.36 1.01 94 0.0 Doug Bochtler
Eric O’Flaherty 28.7 7.21 3.14 0.94 87 -0.1 Bryan Clark
Stolmy Pimentel 91.3 7.20 3.84 1.18 79 -0.1 Jason Baker
Josh Smoker 49.0 9.55 4.22 0.92 88 -0.2 Ricky Barrett
Jim Henderson 35.7 10.08 3.78 1.26 83 -0.2 Bob Long
Cody Satterwhite 55.3 8.79 4.07 0.98 88 -0.2 Maximo Nunez
Bobby Parnell 38.7 6.74 4.65 0.70 81 -0.4 Gary Wagner
John Church 64.3 7.00 2.66 0.98 85 -0.4 Jason Karnuth
Vic Black 48.7 8.87 5.73 1.11 77 -0.5 Bart Evans
Darin Gorski 110.0 7.53 3.93 1.39 72 -0.6 Corey Lee
Seth Lugo 106.0 7.98 3.31 1.53 70 -0.8 Joe Ganote
Gabriel Ynoa 143.7 5.26 2.07 1.63 64 -2.1 Dane Johnson

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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Carson Cistulli has just published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Cory Settoon
Member
4 months 19 days ago

Will the real Curtis Granderson please stand up.

zanderap
Member
zanderap
4 months 19 days ago

I’m sure Mets fans will love to see that the number one comp for our new second baseman is Tony Bernazard.

DBA455
Member
Member
DBA455
4 months 19 days ago

Zips much more bullish on Duda than Steamer.
I believe the same was true last year – and Zips was right.

southie
Member
southie
4 months 19 days ago

oof Marone – Ben McDonald

themarksman13
Member
themarksman13
4 months 19 days ago

Damn, Dave, I wanna draft your grandson in fantasy.

wily mo
Member
4 months 19 days ago

wilmer flores rocking the bill mazeroski comp with a -8 defensive projection, stylish

Goldsteins_Tool_Fedora
Member
Goldsteins_Tool_Fedora
4 months 19 days ago

When I think Syndergaard. I immediately think of Kevin Millwood. CRAZY!

Noah Baron
Member
Noah Baron
4 months 11 days ago

Guys, I think we should keep in mind that the reason Cespedes is projected so well is because they project him as a left fielder – hence the plus 10 runs defensively.

Cespedes in center field is a -17.6 UZR/150 defender. DRS sees him as even worse. Even if you (optimistically) project him as a -15 defender per 150 games in CF, that still works out to a 25 run drop in defensive value. Factor in the positional adjustment, and Cespedes is 15 runs (or 1.5 WAR worse) in Center Field.

Which puts Cespedes’ projected ZIPS WAR at 2.9. In other words, hardly an upgrade over Juan Lagares.

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