2016 ZiPS Projections – New York Yankees

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Cincinnati / Kansas City / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
However one would characterize the precise opposite of a stars-and-scrub approach to roster construction, this is what the Yankees appear to have employed in collecting their present group of talent. Eight of the club’s nine likely starters are projected to record a WAR figure somewhere between 1.5 and 3.1, from Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira on the low end (largely due to a less-than-full complement of plate appearances) to Brian McCann on the high. Wildly average, is perhaps the best description.

It will be interesting to see how Brian Cashman, Joe Girardi, et al. address what does appear to be the team’s one positional weakness — namely, right field. Dan Szymborski’s computer is pessimistic about the 39-year-old Carlos Beltran, projecting him not only for a roughly league-average batting line but also negative defensive-runs mark. That said, the club does have some internal options immediately available: the recently acquired Aaron Hicks and also Rob Refsnyder (who has considerable experience in right field) also receive forecasts in the league-average range.

Pitchers
After early concerns regarding his velocity, right-hander Masahiro Tanaka proceeded to record the top WAR figure among Yankees starters (as calculated by runs allowed) this past year — and actually produced a higher average fastball velocity than in his debut 2014 season. He’s forecast to replicate the former of those achievements in 2016. Expected to nearly approximate Tanaka’s value (in nearly the same quantity of innings) is young right-hander Luis Severino.

With regard to the bullpen, one finds considerable strength at its back end in Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, the former of whom is projected to record a full win more than the latter, but also in 30 more innings. The pair are forecast to record nearly four wins together. By way of comparison, consider that, among the eight clubs examined so far in this series, the best other bullpen figure has belonged to Pittsburgh — at about four wins total.

Bench/Prospects
In addition to those eight starters whose projections sit within the average range, the club also features five other players who profile similarly. Beyond the aforementioned Hicks and Refsnyder, one also finds Gregory Bird (518 PA, 2.0 zWAR), Aaron Judge (540 PA, 1.5 zWAR), and Gary Sanchez (446 PA, 1.9 zWAR) listed among those who are regarded as capable major leaguers. That’s on the offensive side, at least. The club’s pitching depths appears to considerably more shallow.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Yankees, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Yankees Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Brian McCann L 32 C 479 55 105 15 1 21 79 0 0
Chase Headley B 32 3B 581 68 130 26 1 16 65 4 3
Didi Gregorius L 26 SS 560 58 130 22 5 10 52 4 2
Starlin Castro R 26 2B 639 64 165 28 3 15 75 8 5
Jacoby Ellsbury L 32 CF 538 66 132 21 4 9 46 26 6
Brett Gardner L 32 LF 547 74 123 24 6 12 54 17 5
Gregory Bird L 23 1B 518 69 116 28 1 26 79 1 1
Gary Sanchez R 23 C 446 56 99 20 0 20 67 4 2
Rob Refsnyder R 25 2B 539 61 120 26 3 13 56 10 4
Aaron Hicks B 26 CF 498 60 105 19 5 13 51 11 4
Mark Teixeira B 36 1B 350 41 72 14 0 18 64 1 0
Aaron Judge R 24 RF 540 69 111 23 2 30 82 5 2
Alex Rodriguez R 40 DH 481 60 98 17 1 23 74 4 1
Ben Gamel L 24 CF 564 60 127 26 7 10 59 10 4
Austin Romine R 27 C 302 32 68 15 0 8 33 1 0
Stephen Drew L 33 2B 395 37 77 17 3 12 44 1 1
Tony Renda R 25 2B 560 59 129 27 2 4 42 17 5
Dustin Ackley L 28 LF 448 57 103 21 3 13 54 5 3
Gregorio Petit R 31 SS 378 39 84 17 1 6 35 1 2
Pete Kozma R 28 SS 317 35 61 12 1 4 22 5 3
Eric Jagielo L 24 3B 308 37 62 13 1 13 41 0 0
Slade Heathcott L 25 CF 278 27 60 10 3 5 29 6 4
Miguel Andujar R 21 3B 541 60 119 23 3 17 66 7 1
Garrett Jones L 35 RF 322 35 71 15 2 14 42 1 0
Carlos Beltran B 39 RF 450 47 103 25 1 15 56 1 0
Kyle Higashioka R 26 C 188 18 40 9 1 5 22 0 0
Mason Williams L 24 CF 438 43 92 18 3 4 33 12 7
Rico Noel R 27 CF 347 37 66 8 2 0 19 30 10
Tyler Wade L 21 SS 569 52 115 18 5 6 41 19 15
Taylor Dugas L 26 LF 366 35 74 12 1 1 21 6 4
Dante Bichette Jr. R 23 1B 501 47 104 21 2 9 49 0 2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Brian McCann 479 8.4% 17.1% .187 .255 .245 .317 .432 .322
Chase Headley 581 9.1% 22.7% .147 .306 .251 .329 .398 .321
Didi Gregorius 560 6.6% 16.3% .122 .293 .257 .317 .379 .304
Starlin Castro 639 4.4% 16.9% .131 .311 .274 .310 .405 .311
Jacoby Ellsbury 538 6.9% 15.4% .114 .305 .269 .324 .383 .321
Brett Gardner 547 9.1% 21.0% .149 .311 .256 .330 .405 .326
Gregory Bird 518 9.1% 25.3% .234 .291 .252 .324 .486 .347
Gary Sanchez 446 6.3% 24.7% .194 .277 .240 .291 .434 .315
Rob Refsnyder 539 8.2% 19.5% .147 .290 .248 .318 .395 .318
Aaron Hicks 498 9.8% 23.5% .153 .291 .238 .313 .391 .313
Mark Teixeira 350 11.4% 20.6% .226 .250 .238 .331 .464 .339
Aaron Judge 540 7.8% 35.0% .238 .292 .226 .287 .464 .324
Alex Rodriguez 481 11.6% 24.7% .212 .270 .237 .331 .449 .336
Ben Gamel 564 6.4% 23.2% .134 .305 .243 .292 .377 .295
Austin Romine 302 5.0% 20.2% .138 .279 .241 .282 .379 .286
Stephen Drew 395 9.1% 21.8% .167 .252 .218 .290 .385 .292
Tony Renda 560 6.8% 12.3% .084 .283 .252 .308 .336 .295
Dustin Ackley 448 7.4% 17.4% .162 .282 .253 .310 .415 .316
Gregorio Petit 378 4.2% 19.3% .104 .281 .237 .272 .341 .267
Pete Kozma 317 7.6% 19.9% .091 .258 .213 .277 .304 .258
Eric Jagielo 308 6.8% 34.1% .194 .301 .222 .289 .416 .304
Slade Heathcott 278 5.4% 30.2% .119 .320 .231 .274 .350 .282
Miguel Andujar 541 4.4% 23.8% .156 .276 .232 .268 .388 .287
Garrett Jones 322 7.1% 23.9% .206 .275 .240 .295 .446 .317
Carlos Beltran 450 7.8% 17.6% .177 .276 .252 .311 .429 .318
Kyle Higashioka 188 4.8% 23.9% .146 .271 .225 .261 .371 .274
Mason Williams 438 6.6% 17.1% .090 .273 .230 .283 .320 .273
Rico Noel 347 7.8% 29.1% .039 .316 .214 .287 .253 .271
Tyler Wade 569 6.2% 25.7% .088 .291 .219 .271 .307 .272
Taylor Dugas 366 9.0% 16.7% .053 .282 .232 .318 .285 .279
Dante Bichette Jr. 501 5.8% 25.0% .112 .284 .223 .271 .335 .268

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Brian McCann 479 4.9 107 0 3.1 Matt Nokes
Chase Headley 581 4.7 102 2 2.7 Pinky Higgins
Didi Gregorius 560 4.4 93 2 2.4 Ernest Riles
Starlin Castro 639 4.6 98 1 2.2 Jose Lopez
Jacoby Ellsbury 538 4.9 97 1 2.2 Bake McBride
Brett Gardner 547 5.0 104 4 2.0 Delino DeShields
Gregory Bird 518 5.7 122 0 2.0 Roberto Petagine
Gary Sanchez 446 4.5 99 -5 1.9 Todd Zeile
Rob Refsnyder 539 4.6 98 -1 1.9 Glenn Hubbard
Aaron Hicks 498 4.4 95 1 1.8 Brady Anderson
Mark Teixeira 350 5.5 119 3 1.5 Cliff Johnson
Aaron Judge 540 4.7 105 0 1.5 Jesse Barfield
Alex Rodriguez 481 5.3 115 0 1.5 Dwight Evans
Ben Gamel 564 4.0 85 -2 0.9 Terrence Long
Austin Romine 302 3.9 83 -2 0.8 Willie Morales
Stephen Drew 395 3.8 87 0 0.8 Dick McAuliffe
Tony Renda 560 3.9 80 -2 0.8 Mark DeRosa
Dustin Ackley 448 4.6 100 -2 0.7 Troy O’Leary
Gregorio Petit 378 3.2 70 3 0.5 Kevin Baez
Pete Kozma 317 2.9 62 5 0.4 Leo Durocher
Eric Jagielo 308 4.2 94 -5 0.4 Mark Reynolds
Slade Heathcott 278 3.3 73 3 0.4 Jonathan Jay
Miguel Andujar 541 3.8 80 -4 0.4 Ivanon Coffie
Garrett Jones 322 4.7 103 -4 0.3 Chris Richard
Carlos Beltran 450 4.9 104 -7 0.3 Chris Chambliss
Kyle Higashioka 188 3.4 74 -1 0.3 Carlos Corporan
Mason Williams 438 3.1 68 3 0.1 David Murphy
Rico Noel 347 2.8 53 3 -0.2 Scott Loucks
Tyler Wade 569 2.7 61 2 -0.2 Esteban Beltre
Taylor Dugas 366 3.1 71 1 -0.5 Jeff Baldwin
Dante Bichette Jr. 501 3.1 68 2 -1.3 Brock Peterson

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Masahiro Tanaka R 27 25 25 157.7 147 30 22 146 72 67
Luis Severino R 22 30 30 154.0 147 51 18 141 70 65
Dellin Betances R 28 71 0 85.0 130 33 7 55 21 20
Michael Pineda R 27 21 21 121.3 109 19 14 122 56 52
Nathan Eovaldi R 26 25 25 146.3 127 44 15 152 74 69
Andrew Miller L 31 56 0 52.0 85 17 5 34 14 13
Ivan Nova R 29 19 18 109.3 83 35 13 114 58 54
Nick Goody R 24 52 0 67.7 79 27 8 59 31 29
Esmil Rogers R 30 37 14 114.0 88 39 14 121 64 60
Chasen Shreve L 25 62 0 66.0 74 26 9 60 31 29
Jacob Lindgren L 23 29 0 38.3 49 19 5 32 17 16
CC Sabathia L 35 21 21 124.7 104 37 20 136 74 69
Chris Capuano L 37 26 12 75.0 64 27 10 80 44 41
James Pazos L 25 43 0 53.3 53 23 6 50 27 25
Diego Moreno R 28 32 2 54.0 43 19 6 55 29 27
Caleb Cotham R 28 44 0 52.3 52 16 8 52 27 25
Nick Rumbelow R 24 52 0 65.7 69 21 10 63 34 32
Jose De Paula L 28 12 10 50.0 29 18 7 57 31 29
Sergio Santos R 32 30 0 27.7 31 13 4 26 15 14
Chris Martin R 30 42 0 51.3 44 17 6 53 27 25
Wilking Rodriguez R 26 14 0 15.7 15 6 2 15 9 8
Johnny Barbato R 23 37 0 52.7 51 22 8 53 29 27
Jaron Long R 24 28 22 143.3 92 31 23 166 90 84
Branden Pinder R 27 43 0 54.3 49 20 9 55 31 29
Luis Cessa R 24 23 23 126.3 89 38 20 145 81 76
Andrew Bailey R 32 29 0 29.0 32 12 7 30 19 18
Miguel Sulbaran L 22 19 18 88.0 54 38 13 101 59 55
Bryan Mitchell R 25 29 20 108.3 83 58 15 118 71 66
Brady Lail R 22 27 26 132.0 80 44 21 154 87 81
Eric Wooten L 26 20 12 87.3 56 30 16 103 61 57
Kyle Davies R 32 21 20 110.3 67 33 20 130 76 71
Kyle Haynes R 25 36 10 87.0 62 50 12 96 59 55
Rookie Davis R 23 25 24 120.0 90 42 22 138 82 77
Vicente Campos R 23 20 17 68.0 44 19 16 86 51 48
Matt Tracy L 27 25 15 92.7 58 45 15 107 66 62
Caleb Smith L 24 25 25 112.7 82 62 21 127 82 77

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Masahiro Tanaka 157.7 649 22.6% 4.6% .278 3.82 3.70 94 90
Luis Severino 154.0 654 22.5% 7.8% .285 3.80 3.85 94 93
Dellin Betances 85.0 343 37.9% 9.6% .284 2.12 2.39 52 58
Michael Pineda 121.3 505 21.6% 3.8% .299 3.86 3.33 95 81
Nathan Eovaldi 146.3 635 20.0% 6.9% .307 4.24 3.63 105 88
Andrew Miller 52.0 207 41.1% 8.2% .302 2.25 2.24 56 54
Ivan Nova 109.3 477 17.4% 7.3% .300 4.45 4.31 110 104
Nick Goody 67.7 289 27.3% 9.3% .298 3.86 3.68 95 89
Esmil Rogers 114.0 502 17.5% 7.8% .301 4.74 4.34 117 105
Chasen Shreve 66.0 284 26.1% 9.2% .295 3.95 3.82 97 92
Jacob Lindgren 38.3 166 29.5% 11.5% .294 3.76 3.73 93 90
CC Sabathia 124.7 547 19.0% 6.8% .304 4.98 4.46 123 108
Chris Capuano 75.0 332 19.3% 8.1% .307 4.92 4.25 121 103
James Pazos 53.3 233 22.8% 9.9% .296 4.22 3.99 104 96
Diego Moreno 54.0 236 18.2% 8.1% .297 4.50 4.18 111 101
Caleb Cotham 52.3 225 23.1% 7.1% .300 4.30 4.14 106 100
Nick Rumbelow 65.7 281 24.5% 7.5% .296 4.39 3.99 108 96
Jose De Paula 50.0 225 12.9% 8.0% .298 5.22 4.97 129 120
Sergio Santos 27.7 122 25.4% 10.6% .297 4.55 4.04 112 98
Chris Martin 51.3 224 19.7% 7.6% .303 4.38 3.96 108 96
Wilking Rodriguez 15.7 68 22.0% 8.8% .295 4.60 4.00 113 97
Johnny Barbato 52.7 233 21.9% 9.4% .302 4.61 4.51 114 109
Jaron Long 143.3 627 14.7% 4.9% .302 5.27 4.70 130 114
Branden Pinder 54.3 238 20.6% 8.4% .291 4.80 4.62 118 112
Luis Cessa 126.3 562 15.8% 6.8% .306 5.41 4.80 133 116
Andrew Bailey 29.0 129 24.8% 9.3% .299 5.59 5.38 138 130
Miguel Sulbaran 88.0 403 13.4% 9.4% .300 5.62 5.26 139 127
Bryan Mitchell 108.3 501 16.6% 11.6% .305 5.48 5.15 135 124
Brady Lail 132.0 594 13.5% 7.4% .301 5.52 5.12 136 124
Eric Wooten 87.3 395 14.2% 7.6% .302 5.87 5.41 145 131
Kyle Davies 110.3 494 13.6% 6.7% .299 5.79 5.31 143 128
Kyle Haynes 87.0 407 15.2% 12.3% .302 5.69 5.37 140 130
Rookie Davis 120.0 540 16.7% 7.8% .306 5.77 5.19 142 126
Vicente Campos 68.0 309 14.2% 6.1% .310 6.35 5.89 157 142
Matt Tracy 92.7 430 13.5% 10.5% .300 6.02 5.54 149 134
Caleb Smith 112.7 527 15.6% 11.8% .298 6.15 5.88 152 142

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Masahiro Tanaka 157.7 8.39 1.71 1.26 103 2.8 Oil Can Boyd
Luis Severino 154.0 8.59 2.98 1.05 104 2.7 Kris Benson
Dellin Betances 85.0 13.76 3.49 0.74 187 2.4 Rich Gossage
Michael Pineda 121.3 8.09 1.41 1.04 102 2.0 Charles Nagy
Nathan Eovaldi 146.3 7.81 2.71 0.92 93 1.6 Scott Erickson
Andrew Miller 52.0 14.71 2.94 0.87 176 1.3 Billy Wagner
Ivan Nova 109.3 6.83 2.88 1.07 89 0.9 Runelvys Hernandez
Nick Goody 67.7 10.50 3.59 1.06 102 0.4 P.J. Bevis
Esmil Rogers 114.0 6.95 3.08 1.11 83 0.3 Mike Heathcott
Chasen Shreve 66.0 10.09 3.55 1.23 100 0.3 Buzz Oliver
Jacob Lindgren 38.3 11.51 4.46 1.17 105 0.3 Buzz Oliver
CC Sabathia 124.7 7.51 2.67 1.44 79 0.2 Jim Deshaies
Chris Capuano 75.0 7.68 3.24 1.20 80 0.0 Bob Veale
James Pazos 53.3 8.95 3.88 1.01 94 0.0 Rob Murphy
Diego Moreno 54.0 7.17 3.17 1.00 88 0.0 Greg Bauer
Caleb Cotham 52.3 8.95 2.75 1.38 92 -0.1 Joel Peralta
Nick Rumbelow 65.7 9.45 2.88 1.37 90 -0.1 Mark Worrell
Jose De Paula 50.0 5.22 3.24 1.26 76 -0.1 Lance Davis
Sergio Santos 27.7 10.07 4.22 1.30 87 -0.1 Archie Corbin
Chris Martin 51.3 7.72 2.98 1.05 90 -0.1 Bo McLaughlin
Wilking Rodriguez 15.7 8.60 3.44 1.15 86 -0.1 David Lee
Johnny Barbato 52.7 8.71 3.76 1.37 86 -0.2 Chris Hernandez
Jaron Long 143.3 5.78 1.95 1.44 75 -0.3 Heath Totten
Branden Pinder 54.3 8.12 3.31 1.49 82 -0.4 Dan Kite
Luis Cessa 126.3 6.34 2.71 1.43 73 -0.4 Chris Mears
Andrew Bailey 29.0 9.93 3.72 2.17 71 -0.5 Bob Long
Miguel Sulbaran 88.0 5.52 3.89 1.33 70 -0.6 Kason Gabbard
Bryan Mitchell 108.3 6.90 4.82 1.25 72 -0.6 Charlie Zink
Brady Lail 132.0 5.45 3.00 1.43 72 -0.7 Chris Mears
Eric Wooten 87.3 5.77 3.09 1.65 67 -0.9 Tommy Phelps
Kyle Davies 110.3 5.47 2.69 1.63 68 -1.0 R.A. Dickey
Kyle Haynes 87.0 6.41 5.17 1.24 69 -1.0 Jake Robbins
Rookie Davis 120.0 6.75 3.15 1.65 68 -1.1 Derek Hankins
Vicente Campos 68.0 5.82 2.51 2.12 62 -1.1 Mitch Atkins
Matt Tracy 92.7 5.63 4.37 1.46 66 -1.2 Mike Matthews
Caleb Smith 112.7 6.55 4.95 1.68 64 -1.5 Jason Saenz

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
CoolWinnebago
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CoolWinnebago
5 months 13 days ago

Oil Can, what a comp.

RichW
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RichW
5 months 13 days ago

Gotta lubricate that elbow

free-range turducken
Guest
free-range turducken
5 months 13 days ago

I can only imagine the Can hitting on Kris Benson’s wife with Jim Deshaies giving the play-by-play.

Best of all, they can all go home by the sixth inning with Gossage and Wagner in the pen.

Boxkutter
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Boxkutter
5 months 13 days ago

Wow… that’s a lot of projected homers for Judge.

L. Ron Hoyabembe
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L. Ron Hoyabembe
5 months 13 days ago

He and Bird are projected to lead the team!

Pirates Hurdles
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Pirates Hurdles
5 months 13 days ago

Also interesting that Judge and Bird are projectes with better wOBA than the guys in front of them, Tex and Beltran.

FladaYank
Member
FladaYank
5 months 13 days ago

They will spend a vast majority in AAA, no way they get that many HR’s in 2016. 2017 maybe.

High Heat
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High Heat
5 months 13 days ago

The dreaded Mark Reynolds comp.

Mark Reynolds' Mother
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Mark Reynolds' Mother
5 months 13 days ago

That’s a kiss of death, right there.

Tyler
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5 months 13 days ago

ATL link doesn’t work.

Owen S
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Owen S
5 months 13 days ago

Sigh, why did my precious Yankees have to do that Warren-Castro trade? The second base gains in WAR that may (or just as likely may not) be reaped by predominantly playing Castro over Ackley/Refsnyder will almost certainly pale in comparison to the WAR that is lost by giving Warren’s 100ish innings to the likes of 6th starter Brian Mitchell and his -0.6 zWAR projection, and Branden Pinder and his -0.4 projection.

And for the privilege of losing, what, 2-3 wins in expected value, the Yankees get to tack on $10M/yr for the next four years. That’s approximately $infinite/WAR, which is well above market value.

Cashman was on such a great run of savvy trades before this: Sigh.

Kiley McDaniel
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Kiley McDaniel
5 months 13 days ago

Theo’s betta (clap, clap clap)

DNA+
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DNA+
5 months 13 days ago

Similar things were said about swapping Shane Greene for Didi Gregarious, but Cashman won that one.

DNA+
Guest
DNA+
5 months 13 days ago

…I like Gregarious. Sir Didi the Gregarious.

Hugh
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Hugh
5 months 13 days ago

Firstly, I fully understand Owen’s sentiments (I felt the same about the Castro/Warren swap) and that was without even considering where Warren’s innings would now be coming from.

Secondly, DNA… is your point that Cashman has succeeded at executing a similar maneuver before and therefore there’s something he might know that we don’t? You could plausibly argue that, but that would be the only way to justify this trade (imo) given the player projections.

Thirdly… I agree Greene/Didi was similar in terms of the players swapped but was very different in terms of the opportunity cost. Yanks had a very deep (but mediocre) pitching arsenal but literally no SS. Now, the Yanks have far less options behind Warren and had a reasonable replacement at 2B.

DNA+
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DNA+
5 months 13 days ago

Well, of course Cashman knows more about his players and also about his plans going forward. I don’t think that is an argument that needs to be made, I think it is self evident.

My opinion from watching the Yankees is that they do not view Warren internally as a starting pitcher. Also, out of the pen, his stuff doesn’t really play up and he isn’t someone you want in high leverage situations at the end of a game, so they probably feel they are selling high on him.

I also do not think they view Refsnyder as a second baseman. My guess is that Cashman’s endgame is to move Refsnyder for someone to replace Warren’s innings. We shall see.

Cory Settoon
Member
5 months 13 days ago

Ackley is also an option on RF. He didn’t grade out so well last year. Had a total of -8 DRS in 500+ innings in the OF.

L. Ron Hoyabembe
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L. Ron Hoyabembe
5 months 13 days ago

I’m surprised that the Yankees weren’t more in on starting pitching. Maybe they’re more confident in Tanaka and Severino, but ZiPS is not optimistic about the number of innings they’re going to get from their good starters.

DNA+
Guest
DNA+
5 months 13 days ago

I’d be surprised if they don’t make a trade for a starter before spring training (probably a package centered around Refsnyder). …that said, you have to take those innings projections with a massive grain of salt.

Cory Settoon
Member
5 months 13 days ago

You also have to take the rotation’s health with a massive grain of salt.

DNA+
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DNA+
5 months 13 days ago

That is the point.

Owen S
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Owen S
5 months 13 days ago

Yankees are pretty obviously trying to get under the luxury tax threshold for either 2017 or 2018 (Steinbrenner has said as much). If the threshold is upped to $200M, it’ll probably be 2018; if it is upped to $210M+, probably 2017. That said, I imagine the only SPs Cashman is allowed to pursue on the free agent market will be those who settle for a 1 year deal with a ~$10M AAV or a 2 year deal with a ~$8M AAV

RMD
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RMD
5 months 13 days ago

Signing one the marquee outfielders on the market and moving Beltran to the bench would do this team a world of good. Right now, this definitely looks like the team to get the “last team to be eliminated” award.

DNA+
Guest
DNA+
5 months 13 days ago

If Beltran doesn’t hit Aaron Judge will get a shot. Alternatively, if Arod can’t play, Beltran goes to DH and Judge goes to RF. They don’t need another outfielder though.

CoolWinnebago
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CoolWinnebago
5 months 13 days ago

Yeah i think they are set in the OF with Gardner, Ellsbury, Beltran, Hicks, Ackley, Judge

Mason Williams and Slade Heathcott will be around too.

Devon White
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Devon White
5 months 13 days ago

To Jorge Posada: Eat my dust, sucka!

PBeeston
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PBeeston
5 months 13 days ago

Esmil Rogers signed in KBO. Not sure Sabathia will pitch > 120 IP.

Dan Szymborski
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Dan Szymborski
5 months 13 days ago

Dan is aware. The projection is intentional.

Dan Szymborski
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Dan Szymborski
5 months 13 days ago

Just to expand, I always project players after their last year in the US, the last year before retirement, or their most recent team. Which is why Derek Jeter got a projection last year, Aramis Ramirez will get one this year, and David Ortiz will get one next year.

Quick Hits
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Quick Hits
5 months 13 days ago

I love ZiPS projections in general. My thoughts:

Will do better:
Eovaldi (developing)
Ellsbury (not that old yet)
Tanaka (will be more consistent)

Will do worse:
A-Rod (I think he’ll be below replacement)
Pineda (injury waiting to happen)
Headley (I’ve never seen it other than 2012 and 2H2014)

Bald Vincent
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Bald Vincent
5 months 12 days ago

Eovaldi is developing? I see a player regressing.

H/9
WHIP
SO/W
ERA
IP/start and others are all down from 3 years ago.

He started to throw a splitter this past year and his elbow couldn’t handle it. Eovaldi is what he is. A pitcher with a really fast fastball that is very hittable.

Boom
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Boom
5 months 12 days ago

He is Progressing, his Strikeouts wen’t up and his ERA dropped from the previous year. In the second half when he relied on the splitter more his ERA dropped from 4.50 to 3.67. and his strikeouts per game increased by a full 4. He’s getting better and the splitters helping him alot. Three years ago he had a career year but his FIP was actually better this year and his GB rate was higher this year which is something he’s gonna need in yankee stadium

Danny c
Guest
Danny c
5 months 13 days ago

Curious about judges power projection..seems optimistic given his power output in the minors and the fact that he’s in his power prime.

Boxkutter
Guest
Boxkutter
5 months 13 days ago

He has always been said to have massive power in his bat, if he could just tap into it. That was his calling card in college too. Maybe with the success of players like Giancarlo Stanton and Richie Sexson and their ability to do it, the system thinks Judge will as well. I’d be curious to see what players of his size usually become. Off the top of my head I don’t know many.

shoewizard
Guest
shoewizard
5 months 13 days ago

Looks like a sub .500 team to me.

A lot of league avg 2 WAR position players, but no break out candidates and no stars in their prime. Great bullpen, but not enough starting pitching.

One Tanaka injury away from 5th place.

jose
Guest
jose
5 months 12 days ago

These projections are very similar to the results that led them to 2nd place last season.

shoewizard
Guest
shoewizard
5 months 11 days ago

That would seem to be a comforting counterpoint. However their best players are all 30 something and another year older and their best pitcher’s elbow is held together with duct tape and elmers glue. Not to mention the reliability/volatility factor for bullpens. This team smells like collapse. I’m neither a hater nor a fan. Check back in 9.5 months.

DNA+
Guest
DNA+
5 months 11 days ago

It is a myth that Tanaka’s elbow is “held together with duct tape and elmers glue.” Tanaka had a very minor tear in the ligament. The doctors determined that the best way to mend the ligament was to allow it to heal naturally. Despite what the sports writers would have you believe, ligaments do heal themselves. Of course they do! Tanaka did not throw for several months while the ligament was healing. It healed. As best we know, his elbow is no worse than other pitcher with a healthy elbow (…that said, all pitching elbows are tenuous).

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