2016 ZiPS Projections – San Diego Padres

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Kansas City / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
The Padres entered the 2015 season having placed a sizable wager against the importance of outfield defense, choosing to deploy a unit consisting of Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Justin Upton. It didn’t pay off particularly well: San Diego outfielders produced a collective -23.6 UZR, third-worst among all major-league clubs, while recording merely the 12th-best offensive line (107 wRC+) — i.e. not enough to compensate for the unit’s defensive shortcomings. Overall, the aforementioned triumvirate posted a combined 4.6 WAR, or 1.8 WAR per 600 plate appearances. Not terrible, that, but also not commensurate with the club’s financial investment in them.

Defense will be less of an issue for the team this year, according to Dan Szymborski’s computer. Jon Jay and Melvin Upton are both projected to provide slightly above-average defense as center fielders — and, owing to how the game is traditionally played, only one of them is likely to occupy center at any given time, meaning the second will probably be playing a very capable left field alongside the first. Travis Jankowski (439 PA, +8 DEF in CF) and the newly acquired Manuel Margot (518 PA, +7 DEF in CF) are also candidates to prevent runs at an above-average rate.

The flaw for the current iteration of the Padres isn’t so much outfield defense as it is almost all the other aspects of the club. This is perhaps best expressed by observing how Derek Norris (468 PA, 2.9 zWAR) receives the top projection among San Diego’s position players. Norris absolutely has his virtues. To say that he’s not an ideal franchise cornerstone, however, is to say a correct thing.

Pitchers
The 2015 season marked the ninth consecutive one in which right-hander James Shields recorded at least 200 innings — and the first (of those nine) in which he failed to post at least two wins. Likely because ZiPS is designed to rain figuratively all over figurative parades, it projects Shields’ 200-inning streak to end. It also projects him to cross the two-win threshold again, though. He and Tyson Ross (178.0 IP, 3.3 zWAR) are the foundation of the rotation. Meanwhile, ZiPS is not optimistic about right-hander Andrew Cashner (155.2 IP, 1.5 zWAR).

With regard to the bullpen, one would be hard-pressed to deny its existence — or that it would seem to benefit greatly from the presence of left-hander Drew Pomeranz, who’s projected for a swing role, inside of it.

Bench/Prospects
The aforementioned Jankowski and Margot profile as the club’s top rookie-eligible players, each expected to parlay a combination of above-average speed and defense into a roughly average overall package (the latter’s more solidly average than the former’s). Beyond them, Rule 5 outfielder Jabari Blash (442 PA, 1.1 zWAR) appears capable, as well, of serving as a useful bench player. Among pitchers, there’s less about which to get excited. One notes, however, that recently signed left-hander Buddy Baumann (74.1 IP, 0.5 zWAR), the author of zero major-league innings ever, resembles a useful bullpen piece.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Padres, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Padres Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Justin Upton R 28 LF 613 86 135 27 3 25 82 13 4
Derek Norris R 27 C 468 55 104 23 1 13 54 4 1
Manuel Margot R 21 CF 518 54 121 23 5 10 47 31 17
Yangervis Solarte B 28 3B 564 61 135 28 2 11 56 1 0
Christian Bethancourt R 24 C 436 46 103 23 1 9 45 8 3
Cory Spangenberg L 25 2B 429 49 101 18 9 6 35 13 6
Wil Myers R 25 CF 443 60 103 21 1 15 53 8 2
Travis Jankowski L 25 CF 439 48 97 13 5 2 31 25 8
Jon Jay L 31 CF 413 44 92 13 2 4 30 6 3
Jabari Blash R 26 RF 442 58 91 17 1 21 55 7 4
Austin Hedges R 23 C 335 34 69 14 1 6 33 1 2
Melvin Upton R 31 CF 396 42 76 16 3 10 29 13 4
Jose Pirela R 26 2B 480 55 112 20 5 8 42 8 3
Rymer Liriano R 25 RF 515 61 103 22 3 11 50 15 8
Casey McElroy L 26 2B 512 58 108 18 3 8 46 2 3
Jose Rondon R 22 SS 464 44 103 17 4 2 31 13 10
Erik Kratz R 36 C 212 22 44 11 0 7 24 0 0
Tim Federowicz R 28 C 257 27 55 13 0 5 29 0 0
Alexi Amarista L 27 SS 410 42 89 14 4 6 43 7 1
Matt Kemp R 31 RF 543 69 129 27 2 16 78 9 3
Taylor Lindsey L 24 2B 456 48 97 20 4 9 40 4 3
Ryan Schimpf L 28 2B 459 49 85 21 1 18 49 2 2
Nick Evans R 30 1B 432 46 93 19 1 13 47 0 1
Carlos Asuaje L 24 2B 491 46 100 20 4 8 42 5 6
Hunter Renfroe R 24 RF 571 63 117 26 3 17 66 5 2
Brett Wallace L 29 1B 470 56 104 19 1 16 52 1 1
Rocky Gale R 28 C 288 24 62 10 1 1 21 1 1
Alex Dickerson L 26 LF 439 51 98 23 4 9 50 4 2
Clint Barmes R 37 SS 176 20 37 9 1 2 12 0 1
Hector Gomez R 28 SS 326 31 66 16 4 5 28 3 3
Tyson Gillies L 27 LF 248 23 49 7 2 3 18 5 3
Mike McCoy R 35 SS 307 29 56 10 1 2 20 8 4
Jason Lane R 39 1B 65 7 11 3 0 1 6 0 0
Fernando Perez L 22 2B 520 54 104 19 2 11 53 2 2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Justin Upton 613 10.9% 25.8% .202 .307 .252 .338 .454 .346
Derek Norris 468 8.8% 23.3% .152 .302 .247 .318 .399 .316
Manuel Margot 518 5.4% 16.8% .130 .285 .251 .293 .381 .316
Yangervis Solarte 564 6.6% 10.8% .126 .276 .262 .313 .388 .306
Christian Bethancourt 436 3.4% 20.2% .125 .293 .249 .274 .374 .282
Cory Spangenberg 429 6.5% 22.4% .139 .330 .260 .312 .399 .311
Wil Myers 443 9.3% 25.1% .172 .321 .259 .330 .431 .332
Travis Jankowski 439 6.8% 18.2% .072 .295 .241 .296 .313 .286
Jon Jay 413 7.0% 16.2% .080 .299 .254 .331 .334 .293
Jabari Blash 442 8.6% 33.5% .208 .307 .231 .308 .439 .331
Austin Hedges 335 4.8% 21.5% .109 .266 .221 .259 .330 .256
Melvin Upton 396 9.1% 29.8% .147 .288 .215 .287 .362 .291
Jose Pirela 480 5.8% 14.4% .122 .282 .253 .301 .375 .300
Rymer Liriano 515 7.6% 31.3% .130 .309 .221 .287 .351 .291
Casey McElroy 512 6.8% 20.1% .103 .281 .232 .295 .335 .279
Jose Rondon 464 5.2% 17.7% .072 .291 .240 .282 .312 .272
Erik Kratz 212 7.1% 21.2% .166 .257 .228 .283 .394 .290
Tim Federowicz 257 6.6% 28.0% .119 .311 .233 .285 .352 .276
Alexi Amarista 410 6.1% 15.1% .107 .267 .237 .284 .344 .271
Matt Kemp 543 7.4% 23.9% .160 .319 .261 .317 .421 .323
Taylor Lindsey 456 7.2% 19.1% .132 .272 .233 .291 .365 .289
Ryan Schimpf 459 8.7% 30.3% .187 .261 .207 .283 .394 .296
Nick Evans 432 7.4% 24.8% .151 .288 .235 .294 .386 .299
Carlos Asuaje 491 7.7% 23.2% .118 .286 .227 .294 .345 .287
Hunter Renfroe 571 5.8% 30.3% .157 .291 .221 .270 .378 .282
Brett Wallace 470 6.6% 29.1% .160 .315 .242 .302 .402 .306
Rocky Gale 288 3.5% 18.1% .055 .277 .229 .260 .284 .238
Alex Dickerson 439 5.9% 24.1% .143 .305 .243 .295 .386 .298
Clint Barmes 176 4.5% 21.6% .105 .287 .230 .282 .335 .264
Hector Gomez 326 3.4% 24.5% .128 .275 .216 .252 .344 .259
Tyson Gillies 248 3.2% 28.6% .086 .289 .211 .249 .297 .247
Mike McCoy 307 9.1% 21.2% .067 .265 .207 .288 .274 .263
Jason Lane 65 7.7% 30.8% .108 .278 .196 .270 .304 .249
Fernando Perez 520 5.2% 27.5% .116 .278 .214 .260 .330 .259

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Justin Upton 613 5.6 125 1 3.3 Chili Davis
Derek Norris 468 4.6 104 -1 2.9 Nick Hundley
Manuel Margot 518 4.0 91 7 2.1 Milton Bradley
Yangervis Solarte 564 4.5 100 -2 2.0 Luis Lopez
Christian Bethancourt 436 3.7 84 4 1.9 Jorge Pedre
Cory Spangenberg 429 4.6 102 0 1.7 Bill Russell
Wil Myers 443 5.3 116 -10 1.6 Ron Swoboda
Travis Jankowski 439 3.5 75 8 1.4 Evan Frey
Jon Jay 413 4.0 92 2 1.4 Jim Eppard
Jabari Blash 442 4.7 111 -4 1.1 Craig Wilson
Austin Hedges 335 2.9 68 7 1.1 Jeff Winchester
Melvin Upton 396 3.7 85 3 1.1 Bo Porter
Jose Pirela 480 4.1 93 -4 1.0 Orlando Hudson
Rymer Liriano 515 3.5 82 10 1.0 Marvin Garrison
Casey McElroy 512 3.4 80 3 1.0 Brian Hitchcox
Jose Rondon 464 3.0 71 5 0.9 Ron Gardenhire
Erik Kratz 212 3.9 92 -1 0.8 Mike Macfarlane
Tim Federowicz 257 3.5 82 0 0.8 Dusty Brown
Alexi Amarista 410 3.6 79 -1 0.7 Chris Lombardozzi
Matt Kemp 543 4.9 109 -10 0.7 Cleon Jones
Taylor Lindsey 456 3.7 87 -3 0.6 Richard Slavik
Ryan Schimpf 459 3.8 92 -7 0.5 Mike Pagliarulo
Nick Evans 432 4.0 93 3 0.4 Butch Huskey
Carlos Asuaje 491 3.4 82 -3 0.4 Doug Saunders
Hunter Renfroe 571 3.6 83 5 0.4 John Mayberry Jr.
Brett Wallace 470 4.3 100 -1 0.4 Chris Wakeland
Rocky Gale 288 2.5 56 4 0.3 Ken Huckaby
Alex Dickerson 439 4.1 93 -2 0.3 Rod Allen
Clint Barmes 176 3.2 76 0 0.3 Jeff Branson
Hector Gomez 326 2.9 69 -2 -0.1 Tripp Cromer
Tyson Gillies 248 2.5 56 7 -0.2 Jay Sitzman
Mike McCoy 307 2.7 63 -3 -0.3 Mark Belanger
Jason Lane 65 2.8 64 -3 -0.5 Tom Wilson
Fernando Perez 520 2.9 68 -3 -0.6 Sergio Santos

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Tyson Ross R 29 29 29 178.0 182 69 11 154 68 64
James Shields R 34 29 29 185.7 181 56 19 169 78 73
Andrew Cashner R 29 26 26 155.7 128 47 14 152 72 67
Drew Pomeranz L 27 39 14 100.7 106 40 10 86 41 38
Ian Kennedy R 31 28 28 161.7 160 55 21 155 79 74
Brandon Morrow R 31 9 9 52.0 49 18 4 48 22 21
Kevin Quackenbush R 27 66 0 67.3 70 26 5 58 26 24
Nick Vincent R 29 65 0 67.0 75 21 6 58 26 24
Buddy Baumann L 28 35 6 74.3 69 28 6 69 32 30
Leonel Campos R 28 47 0 55.0 72 28 4 42 20 19
Jay Jackson R 28 57 0 67.7 71 24 5 59 27 25
Cory Mazzoni R 26 24 7 63.3 61 20 6 60 29 27
Colin Rea R 25 27 22 118.7 88 46 11 120 60 56
Brandon Maurer R 25 61 0 60.0 53 19 5 55 25 23
Jerry Sullivan R 28 43 0 51.7 50 18 4 47 21 20
Marcos Mateo R 32 38 0 44.7 47 18 4 38 18 17
Zack Segovia R 33 12 11 59.0 45 18 7 61 30 28
Cesar Vargas R 24 46 0 72.3 69 24 7 67 31 29
Josh Johnson R 32 13 13 69.0 57 26 6 73 36 34
Caleb Thielbar L 29 52 0 53.7 45 21 4 50 24 22
Jon Edwards R 28 49 0 53.7 65 34 5 44 24 22
Ryan Buchter L 29 47 0 54.7 64 37 4 44 25 23
Cory Luebke L 31 6 4 17.3 15 6 2 17 9 8
Odrisamer Despaigne R 29 28 19 120.7 80 36 13 125 64 60
Dale Thayer R 35 53 0 50.7 46 17 6 48 24 22
Scott Elbert L 30 20 0 18.7 18 8 2 17 9 8
Ryan Butler R 24 20 6 52.0 34 22 5 54 28 26
Blake Smith R 28 41 0 50.3 49 27 4 46 25 23
Tayron Guerrero R 25 47 0 54.0 54 28 6 50 27 25
Jose Torres L 22 48 0 73.0 70 33 8 69 36 34
Aaron Northcraft R 26 31 16 104.7 76 50 11 109 59 55
Carlos Pimentel R 26 27 21 118.0 97 57 16 120 67 63
Chris Rearick L 28 43 0 46.3 39 21 5 46 25 23
Josh Martin R 26 43 0 66.0 64 26 8 63 34 32
Frank Garces L 26 63 0 65.3 59 32 8 63 34 32
Eury de la Rosa L 26 57 0 67.0 60 34 7 65 35 33
Justin Hancock R 25 22 21 107.0 67 49 11 116 63 59
Robbie Erlin L 25 24 23 124.3 96 37 19 132 73 68
Daniel McCutchen R 33 24 14 89.0 62 24 16 98 55 51
Luis Perdomo R 23 19 18 100.7 74 40 15 111 62 58
Jason Lane L 39 23 22 133.7 60 35 22 157 87 81

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Tyson Ross 178.0 757 24.0% 9.1% .294 3.24 3.17 87 82
James Shields 185.7 782 23.1% 7.2% .290 3.54 3.55 95 92
Andrew Cashner 155.7 666 19.2% 7.1% .292 3.87 3.63 104 94
Drew Pomeranz 100.7 428 24.8% 9.3% .283 3.40 3.63 92 94
Ian Kennedy 161.7 695 23.0% 7.9% .296 4.12 3.95 111 102
Brandon Morrow 52.0 222 22.1% 8.1% .291 3.63 3.32 98 86
Kevin Quackenbush 67.3 286 24.5% 9.1% .290 3.21 3.16 86 82
Nick Vincent 67.0 280 26.8% 7.5% .295 3.22 3.07 87 79
Buddy Baumann 74.3 320 21.6% 8.8% .296 3.63 3.57 98 92
Leonel Campos 55.0 235 30.6% 11.9% .295 3.11 3.13 84 81
Jay Jackson 67.7 286 24.8% 8.4% .295 3.33 3.13 90 81
Cory Mazzoni 63.3 270 22.6% 7.4% .300 3.84 3.56 103 92
Colin Rea 118.7 522 16.9% 8.8% .295 4.25 4.20 114 108
Brandon Maurer 60.0 254 20.9% 7.5% .284 3.45 3.38 93 87
Jerry Sullivan 51.7 220 22.7% 8.2% .294 3.48 3.34 94 86
Marcos Mateo 44.7 190 24.7% 9.5% .288 3.43 3.57 92 92
Zack Segovia 59.0 256 17.6% 7.0% .295 4.27 4.25 115 110
Cesar Vargas 72.3 308 22.4% 7.8% .294 3.61 3.63 97 94
Josh Johnson 69.0 306 18.6% 8.5% .312 4.43 3.77 119 97
Caleb Thielbar 53.7 232 19.4% 9.0% .287 3.69 3.57 99 92
Jon Edwards 53.7 239 27.2% 14.2% .295 3.69 4.02 99 104
Ryan Buchter 54.7 245 26.1% 15.1% .292 3.79 3.86 102 100
Cory Luebke 17.3 75 20.0% 8.0% .289 4.15 3.97 112 103
Odrisamer Despaigne 120.7 523 15.3% 6.9% .289 4.48 4.26 121 110
Dale Thayer 50.7 217 21.2% 7.8% .286 3.91 3.77 105 97
Scott Elbert 18.7 81 22.2% 9.9% .288 3.86 4.07 104 105
Ryan Butler 52.0 232 14.7% 9.5% .292 4.50 4.55 121 117
Blake Smith 50.3 224 21.9% 12.1% .298 4.11 3.92 111 101
Tayron Guerrero 54.0 240 22.5% 11.7% .295 4.17 4.33 112 112
Jose Torres 73.0 321 21.8% 10.3% .296 4.19 4.11 113 106
Aaron Northcraft 104.7 473 16.1% 10.6% .297 4.73 4.62 127 119
Carlos Pimentel 118.0 531 18.3% 10.7% .294 4.81 4.88 129 126
Chris Rearick 46.3 206 18.9% 10.2% .295 4.47 4.31 120 111
Josh Martin 66.0 287 22.3% 9.1% .297 4.36 4.12 117 106
Frank Garces 65.3 291 20.3% 11.0% .291 4.41 4.46 119 115
Eury de la Rosa 67.0 300 20.0% 11.3% .296 4.43 4.25 119 110
Justin Hancock 107.0 486 13.8% 10.1% .297 4.96 4.76 133 123
Robbie Erlin 124.3 542 17.7% 6.8% .294 4.92 4.62 132 119
Daniel McCutchen 89.0 389 15.9% 6.2% .290 5.16 4.98 139 129
Luis Perdomo 100.7 453 16.3% 8.8% .303 5.19 5.03 140 130
Jason Lane 133.7 593 10.1% 5.9% .288 5.45 5.30 147 137

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Tyson Ross 178.0 9.20 3.49 0.56 107 3.3 Matt Clement
James Shields 185.7 8.77 2.71 0.92 98 2.6 Andy Benes
Andrew Cashner 155.7 7.40 2.72 0.81 89 1.5 Adam Eaton
Drew Pomeranz 100.7 9.47 3.57 0.89 102 1.3 Brian Barnes
Ian Kennedy 161.7 8.91 3.06 1.17 84 0.9 Scott Elarton
Brandon Morrow 52.0 8.48 3.12 0.69 95 0.7 Charlie Puleo
Kevin Quackenbush 67.3 9.36 3.48 0.67 108 0.6 Steve Wapnick
Nick Vincent 67.0 10.07 2.82 0.81 107 0.6 Brian Sanches
Buddy Baumann 74.3 8.36 3.39 0.73 95 0.5 Matt Dunbar
Leonel Campos 55.0 11.78 4.58 0.65 111 0.5 Calvin Jones
Jay Jackson 67.7 9.44 3.19 0.66 104 0.5 Jason Boyd
Cory Mazzoni 63.3 8.67 2.84 0.85 90 0.4 Mike Iglesias
Colin Rea 118.7 6.67 3.49 0.83 81 0.4 Jonah Bayliss
Brandon Maurer 60.0 7.95 2.85 0.75 100 0.3 Mark Brown
Jerry Sullivan 51.7 8.70 3.13 0.70 99 0.2 Jesus Colome
Marcos Mateo 44.7 9.46 3.62 0.81 101 0.2 Jason Childers
Zack Segovia 59.0 6.86 2.75 1.07 81 0.2 Pete Vuckovich
Cesar Vargas 72.3 8.59 2.99 0.87 96 0.1 Jeff Martin
Josh Johnson 69.0 7.43 3.39 0.78 78 0.1 Evan Thomas
Caleb Thielbar 53.7 7.54 3.52 0.67 94 0.1 Jim Roland
Jon Edwards 53.7 10.89 5.70 0.84 94 0.1 Calvin Jones
Ryan Buchter 54.7 10.53 6.09 0.66 91 0.0 Greg McCarthy
Cory Luebke 17.3 7.80 3.12 1.04 83 0.0 Junior Walsh
Odrisamer Despaigne 120.7 5.97 2.68 0.97 77 -0.1 Vicente Bonilla
Dale Thayer 50.7 8.17 3.02 1.07 89 -0.1 Terry Mathews
Scott Elbert 18.7 8.66 3.85 0.96 90 -0.1 Scott Watkins
Ryan Butler 52.0 5.88 3.81 0.87 77 -0.2 Dan Rambo
Blake Smith 50.3 8.77 4.83 0.72 84 -0.2 Bart Evans
Tayron Guerrero 54.0 9.00 4.67 1.00 83 -0.4 Brett Wayne
Jose Torres 73.0 8.63 4.07 0.99 83 -0.4 Brian Burres
Aaron Northcraft 104.7 6.53 4.30 0.95 73 -0.5 Jose Segura
Carlos Pimentel 118.0 7.40 4.35 1.22 72 -0.5 Mike Romano
Chris Rearick 46.3 7.58 4.08 0.97 77 -0.5 Tom Martin
Josh Martin 66.0 8.73 3.55 1.09 79 -0.6 Bo Hall
Frank Garces 65.3 8.13 4.41 1.10 78 -0.6 Chad Miles
Eury de la Rosa 67.0 8.06 4.57 0.94 78 -0.6 Brad Weis
Justin Hancock 107.0 5.64 4.12 0.93 70 -0.7 Mark Woodyard
Robbie Erlin 124.3 6.95 2.68 1.38 70 -0.8 Jason Pierson
Daniel McCutchen 89.0 6.27 2.43 1.62 67 -1.0 Jeff Harris
Luis Perdomo 100.7 6.61 3.57 1.34 67 -1.0 Jared Jensen
Jason Lane 133.7 4.04 2.36 1.48 63 -1.9 Jerry Reuss

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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Carson Cistulli has just published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Ruvoloks
Member
Ruvoloks
4 months 16 days ago

Why is Justin Upton listed in the projections?

Sean C
Member
4 months 16 days ago

Because that is the last team he played for, and they began releasing these prior to all Free Agents signing. Upton himself has no team at this time still.

Jason B
Member
Jason B
4 months 16 days ago

I enjoy that we get to have some iteration of this conversation on EVERY. SINGLE. TEAM. PROJECTION.

a pad abroad
Member
a pad abroad
4 months 16 days ago

This is every bit as dreadful as I suspected.

Funny that Norris’ comp is Hundley and Ross, Shields & Cashner all spit out ex-Pad comps as well.

72 wins or so?

sholbert
Member
sholbert
4 months 16 days ago

Unfortunately, this looks pretty fair. I really wanted to get myself worked up and talk about how ZIPS has severely underrated several players… but I can’t. This, sadly, looks like a good preview of what to expect. This is no way to send Dick Enberg off into the sunset!

bmasar
Member
bmasar
4 months 15 days ago

Myers’s defensive projection seems pretty punishing at -10. Granted he hasn’t played much 1B in his career, but he looked pretty good there last year. Is ZiPS producing that number based on his poor CF showing last year?

Dan Szymborski
Member
Dan Szymborski
4 months 15 days ago

The defensive projection is at the position in the listed chart, not the graphic. It’s one of those places where ZiPS automatically chose CF since it’s where he played but Carson knows where the Padres are likely to play him (I usually overrule ZiPS if I’m pretty sure about a position, but I didn’t do so here which I should have). He projects at about league-average defensively at first.

carpaia
Member
carpaia
4 months 15 days ago

Love the Ron Swoboda comp for Will Myers!

Barney Coolio
Member
Barney Coolio
4 months 15 days ago

“The Padres entered the 2015 season having placed a sizable wager against the importance of outfield defense, choosing to deploy a unit consisting of Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Justin Upton.”

And yet, Justin Upton has been nominated for the NL Gold Glove Award for left field for the last two seasons. Despite the fact that nobody respects his outfield defense. Rawlings should go back to not differentiating between the outfield positions and just give 3 GGs to 3 outfielders, regardless of position. Too few teams deploy full time left fielders to justify a specific award for left field.

If Justin Upton is at once an unimpressive defensive player and yet a perfectly reasonable nominee for the LF GG, the award should be changed.

alekhine8
Member
alekhine8
4 months 14 days ago

Or the managers and coaches are just terrible at picking the winners (obviously the first time this has occurred) based on reputation or whatever.

Barney Coolio
Member
Barney Coolio
4 months 14 days ago

If “Left Field Gold Glove Award” is a thing, then Justin Upton is a perfectly reasonable nominee for a perfectly unreasonable award. It should just be 3 outfielders, regardless of Of position.

TheEmbassy
Member
TheEmbassy
4 months 14 days ago

The best part of these are the comps. I had forgotten about that Adam Eaton until the Cashner comp made me do a double take.

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