2016 ZiPS Projections – San Francisco Giants

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Francisco Giants. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles NL / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
When preparing the depth-chart graphics such as one finds below, it’s not always possible to fully represent the manner in which every player is likely to be deployed over the course of a season. In case of the Giants, for example, Buster Posey (606 PA, 6.3 zWAR) is a candidate to receive a number of starts at first base. Yet it’s also probably not inaccurate to characterize Brandon Belt (485 PA, 2.5 zWAR) as the team’s starting first baseman. To include Posey’s name at first wouldn’t have been wrong, at all. But it would have also required seconds — or perhaps even an entire minute — of more work. That’s a minute which the author could have utilized to the end of Googling his name on the internet and further crushing himself under the weight of his own vanity.

Posey isn’t merely the best player on the Giants, but also nearly the whole league. Angel Pagan (473 PA, 0.4 zWAR) definitely isn’t the worst player in the league, but he does appear — per Dan Szymborski’s computer, at least — he does appear to represent the club’s worst projected starter. If anyone cares, Jarrett Parker (515 PA, 1.1 zWAR) is also an outfielder and, despite a forecasted strikeout rate of 39.4%, receives a more encouraging prognosis than Pagan.

Pitchers
A 40-year-old version of Tim Hudson won’t pitch for San Francisco this year. After throwing 123.2 innings of replacement-level ball in 2015, the right-hander retired following the season. Despite his departure, it appears as though Hudson nonetheless remains with the club in spirit: Johnny Cueto‘s (207.0 IP, 4.1 zWAR) top comp from the past, it seems, is the 30-year-old version of Hudson. Together, Cueto and Madison Bumgarner (210.0 IP, 4.8 zWAR) are projected to produce roughly nine wins in roughly 400 innings. A strong combination, that.

As for the bullpen, it’s in a position — like if the Giants remain in contention at the deadline, for example — to benefit from an upgrade or two. Hunter Strickland (55.2 IP, 0.8 zWAR) receives the top forecast of any Giants pitcher on a per-inning basis — and, assuming a bigger load of innings, might begin to resemble a more classic relief-ace type. As currently constructed, however, the club’s top-five relievers receive one of the lowest collective WAR figures among the teams projected here thus far.

Bench/Prospects
While absent from the depth-chart graphic below, outfielder Gregor Blanco (422 PA, 0.9 zWAR) has also averaged 445 plate appearances annually during his four seasons in San Francisco. He’s likely to play a not inconsequential role with the club. Ehire Adrianza (331 PA, 0.9 zWAR) receive the top projection among the club’s non-starting infielders. In terms of rookie-eligible hitters, few appear ready for the majors after the aforementioned Parker. The data from Szymborski’s computer suggests not only that Clayton Blackburn (127.2 IP, 1.0 zWAR) is the club’s top rookie-eligible pitcher, but also the top starter not included in the depth chart.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of Los Gigantes, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Giants Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Buster Posey R 29 C 606 70 165 29 1 18 86 2 1
Matt Duffy R 25 3B 573 67 145 25 5 11 64 13 2
Brandon Crawford L 29 SS 545 58 122 26 5 14 67 5 3
Joe Panik L 25 2B 568 68 143 26 4 7 49 4 3
Brandon Belt L 28 1B 485 63 114 26 3 16 56 7 3
Denard Span L 32 CF 499 62 128 26 4 5 34 16 4
Hunter Pence R 33 RF 485 66 118 21 4 15 65 9 3
Andrew Susac R 26 C 311 34 62 12 2 6 29 0 0
Jarrett Parker L 27 RF 515 61 98 18 4 15 55 12 6
Ehire Adrianza B 26 SS 331 33 66 12 2 3 24 7 3
Gregor Blanco L 32 CF 422 54 98 18 4 4 33 13 6
Marlon Byrd R 38 LF 527 55 123 23 3 17 68 2 1
Ali Castillo R 27 SS 413 35 88 13 2 3 30 15 8
Gorkys Hernandez R 28 CF 395 40 81 14 2 4 31 14 5
Kyle Blanks R 29 1B 185 24 41 9 0 6 18 1 0
Angel Pagan B 34 CF 473 58 117 20 4 4 36 12 5
Christian Arroyo R 21 SS 459 45 107 21 2 7 42 5 4
Kelby Tomlinson R 26 2B 518 52 113 15 4 3 39 20 9
Hak-Ju Lee L 25 SS 325 31 63 11 2 3 22 13 4
Mac Williamson R 25 RF 414 48 87 17 2 9 39 4 1
Ryan Lollis L 29 RF 460 46 104 19 3 4 36 6 3
Brandon Hicks R 30 2B 295 30 50 11 2 7 27 2 1
Ramiro Pena B 30 SS 295 28 67 12 1 3 22 1 2
Nick Noonan L 27 SS 391 35 79 15 1 3 28 3 2
Trevor Brown R 24 C 383 35 80 16 1 2 29 3 3
Grant Green R 28 LF 468 50 116 24 4 6 45 3 4
Kevin Frandsen R 34 2B 366 32 86 13 1 3 28 2 2
Austin Slater R 23 2B 509 44 112 21 3 3 38 5 5
Hunter Cole R 23 RF 514 51 113 26 6 7 49 5 5
Rando Moreno B 24 SS 438 40 91 14 2 1 29 13 10
Darren Ford R 30 CF 360 37 75 10 2 6 29 21 11
Jeff Kobernus R 28 2B 331 33 72 11 1 2 21 18 6
Marco Scutaro R 40 2B 132 14 29 5 1 1 9 1 1
Carlos Moncrief L 27 RF 474 48 92 16 3 10 43 8 4
Skyler Stromsmoe B 32 2B 234 23 44 10 1 0 14 4 4
Engel Beltre L 26 CF 365 36 85 11 3 4 29 8 7
Brett Jackson L 27 RF 291 28 49 9 3 5 23 7 4
Junior Arias R 24 CF 382 40 81 11 3 8 34 25 12
Ryder Jones L 22 3B 505 47 106 25 2 7 44 4 2
Juan Ciriaco R 32 2B 209 19 45 9 1 2 16 8 1
Ricky Oropesa L 26 1B 483 44 92 17 1 11 45 1 1
Angel Villalona R 25 1B 422 37 78 16 1 8 37 0 0

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Buster Posey 606 8.9% 10.4% .157 .315 .305 .368 .462 .352
Matt Duffy 573 5.9% 18.3% .128 .322 .275 .322 .403 .320
Brandon Crawford 545 7.9% 20.6% .159 .293 .249 .314 .408 .308
Joe Panik 568 7.0% 11.1% .106 .302 .277 .331 .383 .314
Brandon Belt 485 9.7% 25.6% .185 .333 .265 .340 .450 .344
Denard Span 499 7.2% 10.0% .107 .304 .280 .333 .387 .324
Hunter Pence 485 7.2% 18.6% .165 .300 .265 .320 .430 .329
Andrew Susac 311 9.3% 30.2% .123 .315 .224 .305 .347 .291
Jarrett Parker 515 9.1% 39.4% .154 .342 .214 .294 .368 .300
Ehire Adrianza 331 7.9% 20.5% .086 .281 .224 .295 .310 .275
Gregor Blanco 422 9.5% 17.8% .102 .315 .261 .334 .363 .312
Marlon Byrd 527 4.9% 27.7% .163 .318 .250 .292 .413 .301
Ali Castillo 413 5.3% 16.0% .068 .269 .230 .274 .298 .267
Gorkys Hernandez 395 7.1% 26.1% .084 .304 .226 .286 .310 .276
Kyle Blanks 185 7.6% 27.6% .164 .318 .248 .319 .412 .320
Angel Pagan 473 6.1% 14.8% .091 .306 .267 .311 .358 .301
Christian Arroyo 459 3.9% 20.5% .106 .298 .246 .279 .352 .279
Kelby Tomlinson 518 6.6% 21.2% .068 .304 .239 .294 .307 .281
Hak-Ju Lee 325 8.0% 28.3% .082 .303 .216 .283 .298 .269
Mac Williamson 414 6.8% 26.8% .128 .305 .233 .302 .361 .293
Ryan Lollis 460 6.1% 14.6% .088 .282 .246 .296 .334 .280
Brandon Hicks 295 8.5% 36.6% .136 .285 .189 .265 .325 .262
Ramiro Pena 295 5.8% 14.9% .086 .284 .249 .293 .335 .271
Nick Noonan 391 5.4% 27.1% .071 .296 .218 .262 .289 .246
Trevor Brown 383 5.2% 18.3% .068 .273 .225 .270 .293 .254
Grant Green 468 3.8% 19.9% .113 .318 .263 .294 .376 .293
Kevin Frandsen 366 3.6% 8.7% .071 .272 .254 .300 .325 .277
Austin Slater 509 3.7% 23.2% .074 .299 .232 .264 .306 .256
Hunter Cole 514 5.8% 25.3% .125 .311 .238 .287 .363 .289
Rando Moreno 438 5.0% 17.4% .053 .278 .228 .271 .281 .252
Darren Ford 360 6.4% 23.1% .096 .283 .226 .279 .322 .289
Jeff Kobernus 331 6.0% 20.5% .062 .297 .238 .287 .300 .277
Marco Scutaro 132 5.3% 10.6% .082 .262 .240 .285 .322 .268
Carlos Moncrief 474 8.2% 28.5% .122 .288 .215 .282 .337 .276
Skyler Stromsmoe 234 9.0% 19.2% .058 .272 .214 .297 .272 .269
Engel Beltre 365 3.0% 20.5% .084 .305 .248 .276 .332 .272
Brett Jackson 291 8.9% 39.2% .115 .308 .188 .266 .303 .262
Junior Arias 382 3.9% 34.3% .113 .324 .223 .257 .336 .284
Ryder Jones 505 3.4% 24.4% .105 .280 .221 .252 .326 .253
Juan Ciriaco 209 3.8% 19.1% .087 .276 .228 .261 .315 .260
Ricky Oropesa 483 6.4% 34.8% .117 .299 .206 .259 .323 .256
Angel Villalona 422 5.0% 31.8% .107 .277 .199 .249 .306 .244

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Buster Posey 606 6.6 133 2 6.3 Spud Davis
Matt Duffy 573 5.0 104 7 3.7 Buddy Bell
Brandon Crawford 545 4.6 103 7 3.5 Leo Cardenas
Joe Panik 568 4.7 102 1 2.7 Edgardo Alfonzo
Brandon Belt 485 5.7 122 4 2.5 Leon Durham
Denard Span 499 5.0 103 -2 2.4 Johnny Damon
Hunter Pence 485 5.1 110 0 1.9 Ellis Burks
Andrew Susac 311 3.7 84 -1 1.3 David Ross
Jarrett Parker 515 3.7 86 6 1.1 Warren Newson
Ehire Adrianza 331 3.2 72 3 0.9 Doug Baker
Gregor Blanco 422 4.5 97 -7 0.9 Dave Martinez
Marlon Byrd 527 4.3 97 0 0.9 George Foster
Ali Castillo 413 2.8 62 5 0.6 Joey Aragon
Gorkys Hernandez 395 3.2 69 2 0.5 Damon Mashore
Kyle Blanks 185 4.8 105 0 0.5 Ryan Shealy
Angel Pagan 473 4.1 89 -8 0.4 Jim Piersall
Christian Arroyo 459 3.5 77 -4 0.4 Andres Thomas
Kelby Tomlinson 518 3.3 71 0 0.4 Herman Iribarren
Hak-Ju Lee 325 3.1 65 -1 0.3 Demetrish Jenkins
Mac Williamson 414 3.9 87 -1 0.3 Jeff Hermann
Ryan Lollis 460 3.5 78 4 0.3 Mike Lockwood
Brandon Hicks 295 2.9 66 2 0.2 Trace Coquillette
Ramiro Pena 295 3.4 77 -3 0.2 Danny Thompson
Nick Noonan 391 2.6 56 4 0.2 John Hotchkiss
Trevor Brown 383 2.7 60 -2 0.0 Matt Morgan
Grant Green 468 3.9 88 -3 0.0 Andrew Locke
Kevin Frandsen 366 3.5 77 -6 -0.2 Jerry Adair
Austin Slater 509 2.7 61 3 -0.2 Adolfo Gonzalez
Hunter Cole 514 3.6 83 -3 -0.3 Keith Williams
Rando Moreno 438 2.5 57 0 -0.3 Jhonny Carvajal
Darren Ford 360 3.1 70 -5 -0.3 Kenny Kelly
Jeff Kobernus 331 3.3 67 -5 -0.4 Jhonny Perez
Marco Scutaro 132 3.2 72 -4 -0.4 Rene Gonzales
Carlos Moncrief 474 3.3 75 -1 -0.4 Todd Soares
Skyler Stromsmoe 234 2.6 63 -4 -0.5 Dave Matranga
Engel Beltre 365 3.1 71 -5 -0.6 Raul Tovar
Brett Jackson 291 2.6 61 -1 -0.8 Mickey Hall
Junior Arias 382 3.0 66 -8 -0.9 Tony Barron
Ryder Jones 505 2.9 62 -4 -0.9 Ricky Bell
Juan Ciriaco 209 3.2 62 -9 -1.0 Casey Smith
Ricky Oropesa 483 2.8 64 -2 -1.7 Tate Seefried
Angel Villalona 422 2.6 56 -3 -2.0 John Lindsey

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Madison Bumgarner L 26 31 31 210.0 216 43 18 174 67 63
Johnny Cueto R 30 30 30 207.0 178 50 14 175 71 66
Jeff Samardzija R 31 29 29 196.0 180 44 16 179 77 72
Jake Peavy R 35 24 24 140.3 112 35 15 132 61 57
Clayton Blackburn R 23 23 21 127.7 99 35 12 127 58 54
Chris Heston R 28 26 26 150.7 113 54 14 147 72 67
Hunter Strickland R 27 59 0 55.7 60 12 4 45 17 16
Sergio Romo R 33 63 0 54.3 59 11 5 46 18 17
Santiago Casilla R 35 51 0 50.3 42 17 3 42 17 16
Tim Lincecum R 32 22 20 118.3 104 49 12 113 58 54
George Kontos R 31 64 0 71.7 58 18 7 66 29 27
Matt Cain R 31 18 18 101.7 83 31 14 99 51 48
Josh Osich L 27 56 0 57.7 54 23 5 52 24 22
Mike Broadway R 29 39 0 42.3 44 12 4 37 16 15
Tim Hudson R 40 22 21 123.0 68 31 12 133 63 59
Chase Johnson R 24 23 22 115.0 89 53 10 114 59 55
Javier Lopez L 38 62 0 31.3 23 13 2 27 13 12
Ray Black R 26 28 3 28.7 39 21 3 21 13 12
Derek Law R 25 29 0 27.7 28 15 2 24 12 11
Ty Blach L 25 24 24 140.7 85 37 15 152 74 69
Vin Mazzaro R 29 43 0 63.0 47 24 4 60 27 25
Albert Suarez R 26 18 18 97.3 63 30 12 102 51 48
Adalberto Mejia L 23 18 15 77.3 54 30 8 79 41 38
Cory Gearrin R 30 34 0 36.7 34 14 3 33 16 15
Steven Okert L 24 56 0 66.3 70 28 7 59 30 28
Edwin Quirarte R 29 39 4 67.3 44 25 5 69 33 31
Jacob Smith R 26 47 1 66.3 70 32 7 59 31 29
Jeremy Affeldt L 37 48 0 39.0 28 13 3 38 18 17
Brett Bochy R 28 45 0 59.3 46 24 5 57 28 26
Joan Gregorio R 24 30 12 78.3 68 42 9 76 43 40
Tyler Beede R 23 22 22 116.0 73 51 11 122 64 60
Clay Rapada L 35 37 0 37.3 25 14 3 38 19 18
Alfredo Aceves R 33 17 6 49.0 34 22 6 51 28 26
Kyle Crick R 23 32 16 71.7 81 71 6 61 41 38
Chris Stratton R 25 24 23 126.0 93 61 14 129 71 66
Ian Gardeck R 25 49 0 64.3 57 40 5 60 33 31
Ricky Romero L 31 10 10 42.0 24 33 5 46 30 28
Wilson Santos R 24 40 0 53.0 34 34 9 58 37 35

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Madison Bumgarner 210.0 847 25.5% 5.1% .277 2.70 2.88 75 78
Johnny Cueto 207.0 846 21.0% 5.9% .271 2.87 3.16 80 86
Jeff Samardzija 196.0 811 22.2% 5.4% .290 3.31 3.18 92 87
Jake Peavy 140.3 588 19.1% 6.0% .277 3.66 3.77 102 103
Clayton Blackburn 127.7 545 18.2% 6.4% .293 3.81 3.77 106 103
Chris Heston 150.7 653 17.3% 8.3% .287 4.00 4.09 111 111
Hunter Strickland 55.7 224 26.8% 5.4% .281 2.59 2.64 72 72
Sergio Romo 54.3 220 26.8% 5.0% .287 2.82 2.79 78 76
Santiago Casilla 50.3 210 20.0% 8.1% .269 2.86 3.28 79 89
Tim Lincecum 118.3 517 20.1% 9.5% .289 4.11 3.97 114 108
George Kontos 71.7 299 19.4% 6.0% .274 3.39 3.48 94 95
Matt Cain 101.7 435 19.1% 7.1% .280 4.25 4.32 118 118
Josh Osich 57.7 248 21.8% 9.3% .286 3.43 3.67 95 100
Mike Broadway 42.3 176 25.0% 6.8% .290 3.19 3.23 89 88
Tim Hudson 123.0 533 12.8% 5.8% .291 4.32 4.20 120 114
Chase Johnson 115.0 512 17.4% 10.4% .295 4.30 4.28 120 117
Javier Lopez 31.3 134 17.2% 9.7% .263 3.45 3.48 96 95
Ray Black 28.7 128 30.4% 16.4% .285 3.77 4.21 105 114
Derek Law 27.7 122 22.9% 12.3% .289 3.58 3.81 99 104
Ty Blach 140.7 611 13.9% 6.1% .293 4.41 4.26 123 116
Vin Mazzaro 63.0 273 17.2% 8.8% .287 3.57 3.69 99 100
Albert Suarez 97.3 424 14.9% 7.1% .287 4.44 4.52 123 123
Adalberto Mejia 77.3 341 15.8% 8.8% .291 4.42 4.47 123 122
Cory Gearrin 36.7 157 21.6% 8.9% .291 3.68 3.68 102 100
Steven Okert 66.3 286 24.5% 9.8% .292 3.80 3.78 106 103
Edwin Quirarte 67.3 296 14.9% 8.4% .294 4.14 4.07 115 111
Jacob Smith 66.3 290 24.1% 11.0% .294 3.93 4.01 109 109
Jeremy Affeldt 39.0 168 16.7% 7.7% .289 3.92 3.80 109 103
Brett Bochy 59.3 259 17.8% 9.3% .289 3.94 4.07 109 111
Joan Gregorio 78.3 353 19.3% 11.9% .291 4.60 4.61 128 125
Tyler Beede 116.0 521 14.0% 9.8% .293 4.66 4.61 130 125
Clay Rapada 37.3 164 15.3% 8.5% .292 4.34 4.07 121 111
Alfredo Aceves 49.0 220 15.5% 10.0% .288 4.78 4.77 133 130
Kyle Crick 71.7 347 23.3% 20.5% .297 4.77 5.09 133 138
Chris Stratton 126.0 568 16.4% 10.7% .293 4.71 4.75 131 129
Ian Gardeck 64.3 293 19.5% 13.7% .294 4.34 4.41 121 120
Ricky Romero 42.0 205 11.7% 16.1% .293 6.00 6.14 167 167
Wilson Santos 53.0 251 13.5% 13.5% .288 5.94 6.18 165 168

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Madison Bumgarner 210.0 9.26 1.84 0.77 131 4.8 Frank Viola
Johnny Cueto 207.0 7.74 2.17 0.61 123 4.1 Tim Hudson
Jeff Samardzija 196.0 8.27 2.02 0.73 107 3.0 Jeff Weaver
Jake Peavy 140.3 7.18 2.25 0.96 96 1.4 Bill Gullickson
Clayton Blackburn 127.7 6.98 2.47 0.85 93 1.0 Kelly Downs
Chris Heston 150.7 6.75 3.22 0.84 88 0.9 Rick Foley
Hunter Strickland 55.7 9.69 1.94 0.65 136 0.8 Rusty Meacham
Sergio Romo 54.3 9.78 1.82 0.83 125 0.6 Jeff Reardon
Santiago Casilla 50.3 7.51 3.04 0.54 123 0.5 Jim Corsi
Tim Lincecum 118.3 7.91 3.73 0.91 86 0.5 Russ Ortiz
George Kontos 71.7 7.28 2.26 0.88 104 0.3 John Frascatore
Matt Cain 101.7 7.35 2.74 1.24 83 0.3 Jeff Juden
Josh Osich 57.7 8.42 3.59 0.78 103 0.2 Tim Hamulack
Mike Broadway 42.3 9.36 2.55 0.85 111 0.2 Aaron Rakers
Tim Hudson 123.0 4.98 2.27 0.88 82 0.2 Mike Morgan
Chase Johnson 115.0 6.97 4.15 0.78 82 0.2 Jeff Bumgarner
Javier Lopez 31.3 6.61 3.74 0.58 102 0.1 Darold Knowles
Ray Black 28.7 12.23 6.59 0.94 94 0.1 Marcus Moore
Derek Law 27.7 9.10 4.87 0.65 99 0.1 Jeff Smith
Ty Blach 140.7 5.44 2.37 0.96 80 0.1 Andy Van Hekken
Vin Mazzaro 63.0 6.71 3.43 0.57 99 0.1 Todd Williams
Albert Suarez 97.3 5.83 2.77 1.11 79 0.0 Brandon Emanuel
Adalberto Mejia 77.3 6.29 3.49 0.93 80 0.0 Stevenson Agosto
Cory Gearrin 36.7 8.34 3.43 0.74 96 0.0 Jason Bullard
Steven Okert 66.3 9.50 3.80 0.95 93 -0.1 Mark Lukasiewicz
Edwin Quirarte 67.3 5.88 3.34 0.67 85 -0.1 Marty McLeary
Jacob Smith 66.3 9.50 4.34 0.95 90 -0.1 Todd Bussa
Jeremy Affeldt 39.0 6.46 3.00 0.69 90 -0.2 Dave Righetti
Brett Bochy 59.3 6.98 3.64 0.76 89 -0.2 Rick Greene
Joan Gregorio 78.3 7.82 4.83 1.03 77 -0.3 Paul Schappert
Tyler Beede 116.0 5.66 3.96 0.85 76 -0.3 Mark Woodyard
Clay Rapada 37.3 6.03 3.38 0.72 81 -0.3 Dave Righetti
Alfredo Aceves 49.0 6.24 4.04 1.10 74 -0.4 Elmer Riddle
Kyle Crick 71.7 10.17 8.91 0.75 74 -0.4 Jose Diaz
Chris Stratton 126.0 6.64 4.36 1.00 75 -0.5 Dana Allison
Ian Gardeck 64.3 7.98 5.60 0.70 81 -0.5 Dusty Hughes
Ricky Romero 42.0 5.14 7.07 1.07 59 -0.9 Dan Smith
Wilson Santos 53.0 5.77 5.77 1.53 59 -1.7 Mark Pedersen

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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mrmaddness
Member
mrmaddness
4 months 6 days ago

No.1 Comp for Panik is Edgardo Alfonzo? Wow. He was on a borderline hall of fame career until injuries derailed him.

Brians Sticky Sock
Member
Brians Sticky Sock
4 months 6 days ago

I guess the question is, is Panik’s comp the good Alfonzo, or the injured one?

Cory Settoon
Member
4 months 6 days ago

I guess I don’t fully understand the player comps.

Samardzija – Averages 94.5 MPH on his fastball, 8.18 K/9 and 2.96 BB/9

Weaver – Has never averaged 93 or more MPH on his fastball. The highest K/9 of his career was 7.29 and that was mostly bullpen aided.

And it goes on (Shark has a better GB% and a worse HR/FB)

Having the same first name seems like the most common thing they have.

Jamie
Member
Jamie
4 months 6 days ago

ZiPS comps are based almost entirely on hairstyle.

MonkeyMan
Member
Member
MonkeyMan
4 months 5 days ago

I was surprised by the Marlon Byrd/George Foster comp…

Jimbo
Member
Member
Jimbo
4 months 6 days ago

I am confused by the Spud Davis comp for Posey.

Hurtlocker
Member
Hurtlocker
4 months 6 days ago

Baseball reference has his #1 comp as Jocko Milligan, so WTF??

Jimbo
Member
Member
Jimbo
4 months 6 days ago

LOL. I mean they have similar rate stat (BB%, KK%) profiles I guess. But those numbers had an entirely different meaning in the context of when Spud and Jocko (side note: great names) were playing.

jfree
Member
jfree
4 months 5 days ago

Spud Davis is the saber way of saying Posey is Mr Potatohead

johansantana17
Member
johansantana17
4 months 6 days ago

As a Dodgers fan, these projections seem quite conservative, especially Pence’s projection. The only exception is Posey’s projection.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
4 months 5 days ago

Hm, I don’t know. ZiPS basically completely buys Duffy’s breakout. Samardzija and Cueto’s are both reasonable but on the optimistic side I’d say. The other ones look pretty normal to me. On the whole I’d say it’s fair, and that the team looks pretty good.

J2butter
Member
J2butter
4 months 5 days ago

These offensive projections are uniformly awful. Joe Panik with a 102 OPS+? He’s what, a 20/1 favorite to better that mark? Guy put up a 138 wRC+ with a mere .330 OBP and a below-average HR/FB %. Garbage.

caudata
Member
caudata
4 months 5 days ago

I assume you meant 330 BABIP, not OBP? Also, 330 BABIP is pretty much what is expected given his batted ball profile, so not sure he really climbed a mountain to achieve anything.

Below average HR/FB? Sure, maybe to the league, but he posted the highest mark of his career since A- in 2011. There’s plenty of room on the downside for his HR/FB mark to drop.

He has a pretty good milb record of being moderately better than avg hitter. So maybe chill, yes?

J2butter
Member
J2butter
4 months 5 days ago

oh sorry, did I personally offend you? Cuz that’d be weird. Point was that he didn’t need fluffed-up secondary #s to post a gaudy overall line. Guy can hit, and this projection is a joke

caudata
Member
caudata
4 months 5 days ago

I guess your issue is more with statistical projections in general, since steamer gave him a very similar projection.

– failure to address non-superstar milb track record
– failure to address HR/FB% fallacy
– 432 PA = settled matter proof amazing HOF!

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
4 months 5 days ago

oh sorry, did I personally offend you?

My name is Internet Etiquette, and yes you did.

J2butter
Member
J2butter
4 months 5 days ago

Pence wRC+ last 3 years: 135, 124, 127, with a 140 in ’11. And you project him for a 110? Fuck outta here

cornflake5000
Member
cornflake5000
4 months 5 days ago

Someone piss in your cheerios? Loosen up your panties…

caudata
Member
caudata
4 months 5 days ago

Pence K% and swstr% increased every year last 3, BB% down every year last 3. Normal things that happen when players get older.

ISO keeping him afloat last 3 years, and age curve isn’t nice to ISO.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
Member
4 months 5 days ago

Agree that perhaps hyperbole is not necessary, but here’s the stats from the past three seasons of ZIPS and Pence (good timing, I was going to study how well ZIPS projections and Giants production has been aligning, as I have found ZIPS, over the past few years, to be in the middle of Steamer, BP, Davenport on the low end, Bill James to be on the high end, and Baseball Forecaster also in the middle region as well):

Year – zPA – zWAR- zwOBA – PA – fWAR- wOBA
2013 – 665 – 2.1 – .316 – 687 – 5.5 – .356
2014 – 665 – 2.6 – .325 – 708 – 4.7 – .341
2015 – 674 – 2.5 – .327 – 223 – 1.6 – .347
2016 – 485 – 1.9 – .329

Clearly, perhaps ZIPS has been eating those cheerios when projecting Pence, it has not been doing anywhere close to what Pence has actually done, it has been piss-poor in its projections. If you project out a full season for 2015 at 674 PA we get a similar miss:

2015- 674 – 2.5 – .327 – 674 – 4.8 – .347

Clearly, Pence appears to be doing something that cannot be captured in the ZIPS methodology (Steamer is not much better, projects 2.3 WAR and .328 wOBA for 2016, with 547 PA; and generally been on the low end of projections for Giants players). So maybe J2B’s under garments are just fine.

And just because there is an age curve does not mean everyone hews to it. It’s a standard for a reason: most people follow it, and that is the way to bet, but there will always be outliers, and Pence appears to be one of them so far, the projection systems don’t seem to have him figured out, for at least three seasons so far. Don’t mean that he won’t start to succumb in 2016, so perhaps everyone should loosen things up a bit about projections. Many people act like they are firm and accurate projections, and they are among the best we got, but I’m finding that they are kind of like economic forecasts: all over the board, and not always the most accurate when you focus on one player/country or industry.

dcomegys
Member
Member
dcomegys
4 months 5 days ago

Leon Durham >>>>>>>>>> Brandon Belt

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
4 months 5 days ago

Lena Dunham ? Leon Durham ??

jacobfagan
Member
jacobfagan
4 months 3 days ago

Pretty similar

Anonymous
Member
Anonymous
4 months 5 days ago

Why are players who are no longer on the team listed in the charts at the end?

Curious Gorge
Member
Curious Gorge
4 months 5 days ago

It is explained in the article. The charts will make more sense if you read it.

Anonymous
Member
Anonymous
4 months 5 days ago

The ‘why’ is not explained. It is only pointed out that the author is aware that they are included.

I’m asking why.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
4 months 5 days ago

I’d want to be anonymous too if I was asking this question on this article.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
Member
4 months 5 days ago

Wow, does that mean Pagan will climb up the netting at home plate and/or run around the bases backwards, starting from 3B?

devo1d
Member
Member
devo1d
3 months 29 days ago

That’s the best case scenario. Maybe platooning with Blanco will help, but if he’s starting and Span is in LF, that’s no good. I just don’t see him being healthy again. It was a good run, but time to let Mac Williamson or anyone else have a turn…

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