2016 ZiPS Projections – St. Louis Cardinals

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the St. Louis Cardinals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles NL / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
No club outperformed its Base Runs record by a greater amount in 2015 than St. Louis. The numbers suggest that, at a fundamental level, the Cardinals played like an 89-win team. In reality, they won 100 games. This is neither good or bad in itself. It’s just, if the club below seems more likely to record 89 victories than 100 of them, then that’s not actually a sign of decline, but rather equilibrium.

The depth-chart graphic below lacks some of the nuance that Mike Matheny et al. are likely to employ in terms of fielding a team on a day-to-day basis. For example, Matt Adams (357 PA, 0.9 zWAR) appears quite likely to share starts at first base with Brandon Moss (492 PA, 1.2 zWAR), while the newly acquired Jedd Gyorko (522 PA, 1.6 zWAR) is a candidate to work in a platoon with second baseman Kolten Wong (571 PA, 2.4 zWAR).

The appearance of Matt Carpenter (628 PA, 3.8 zWAR) atop the Cards’ batter projections facilitates the opportunity not only to appreciate his career, but also to remember his No. 1 comparable, Corey Koskie. Despite exceeding his rookie limits as a 26-year-old, Koskie averaged 4.1 WAR per 600 plate appearances over the course of a career that was ultimately ended by concussion-related problems. Provided Jim Souhan isn’t purposely misleading everyone, it appears as though Koskie has found some manner of peace as a Planet Fitness franchisee and advocate for bringing greater joy to youth sports.

Pitchers
One quality that all successful teams seem to share is a starting rotation. That St. Louis has one, too, would appear to represent a step in the right direction. While lacking a proper ace — right-hander Adam Wainwright‘s projection (156.0 IP, 3.6 zWAR) is modest relative to some other No. 1 starters — the rotation does feature more depth than one finds elsewhere. Deploying Jaime Garcia (92.2 IP, 1.8 zWAR) as the club’s fifth starter is a manifestation of that. The presence both of Tim Cooney (130.2 IP, 1.3 zWAR) and Tyler Lyons (135.2 IP, 1.4 zWAR) is, too.

The 2015 edition of the Cardinals’ bullpen produced a collective mark of 4.5 WAR, placing them just inside the league’s top-10 relief corps. Accounting for 75% of those wins were Trevor Rosenthal (74.2 IP, 1.5 zWAR) and Kevin Siegrist (63.0 IP, 0.9 zWAR), who account for roughly two-third of the wins expected from the club’s top-five relievers. Newcomer Seung-hwan Oh (62.2 IP, 0.5 zWAR) receives a fine, if not overwhelming projection.

Bench/Prospects
Outfielder Tommy Pham (334 PA, 1.7 zWAR) was impressive last year as a 27-year-old rookie. Dan Szymborski’s computer indicates he’s likely to be quite productive once again on a rate basis. Infielder Greg Garcia (463 PA, 1.7 zWAR) also exceeded his rookie limits last year and also profiles as a roughly average major leaguer. Shortstop Aledmys Diaz (514 PA, 1.4 zWAR) and outfielder Charlie Tilson (598 PA, 1.2 zWAR) are both rookie-eligible players who’re projected to produce more than a win. Among pitchers, the aforementioned Cooney and Lyons are candidates to provide league-average innings in a starting capacity. Right-hander Zach Petrick (133.1 IP, 1.0 zWAR) receives a similarly promising projection, but won’t be able to test its accuracy this year: in December, the Cardinals sold his rights to the Yokohama Bay Stars in Japan.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Cards, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Cards Depth Chart

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Matt Carpenter L 30 3B 628 93 147 36 4 16 71 4 3
Yadier Molina R 33 C 497 41 128 24 1 7 58 3 1
Jhonny Peralta R 34 SS 549 53 130 27 1 14 62 2 3
Stephen Piscotty R 25 RF 577 68 143 35 3 13 65 7 6
Kolten Wong L 25 2B 571 68 137 24 5 11 56 18 5
Randal Grichuk R 24 LF 488 64 115 26 6 19 59 6 4
Greg Garcia L 26 SS 463 47 97 20 3 4 34 10 3
Tommy Pham R 28 CF 334 42 77 14 5 8 35 8 1
Matt Holliday R 36 LF 439 52 102 21 1 13 64 3 1
Jedd Gyorko R 27 2B 522 56 120 22 0 18 74 1 2
Aledmys Diaz R 25 SS 514 56 118 26 3 11 54 9 6
Charlie Tilson L 23 CF 598 67 147 16 9 5 46 26 14
Brandon Moss L 32 RF 492 53 103 21 3 21 63 1 1
Dean Anna L 29 2B 455 54 98 20 3 4 40 3 4
Jacob Wilson R 25 3B 426 46 89 21 1 10 45 3 3
Cody Stanley L 27 C 351 36 80 12 1 7 35 4 1
Carson Kelly R 21 C 432 44 95 20 2 8 53 1 0
Matt Adams L 27 1B 357 36 91 19 1 11 50 2 1
Eric Fryer R 30 C 243 23 49 9 1 2 18 3 1
Jeremy Hazelbaker L 28 RF 449 46 98 15 6 9 45 19 5
Mike Ohlman R 25 C 414 43 93 19 1 6 39 1 1
Scott Moore L 32 3B 325 33 65 18 0 7 32 1 1
Brayan Pena B 34 C 305 18 75 14 0 2 22 1 1
Matt Williams R 26 SS 334 33 68 10 2 3 24 9 5
Breyvic Valera B 24 2B 544 54 135 15 5 1 40 6 8
Dan Johnson L 36 1B 448 50 90 18 1 13 49 1 0
Anthony Garcia R 24 LF 416 46 85 20 2 10 43 4 3
Bruce Caldwell L 24 2B 442 44 84 19 3 8 40 4 1
Nick Martini L 26 LF 464 46 98 18 3 4 37 6 6
Patrick Wisdom R 24 3B 500 46 94 19 4 10 47 6 2
Juan Herrera R 23 SS 346 31 76 13 1 1 24 13 10
Jonathan Rodriguez R 26 1B 475 49 101 20 1 10 45 7 3
Travis Tartamella R 28 C 181 12 32 6 0 1 10 0 0

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Matt Carpenter 628 11.6% 18.8% .170 .317 .272 .362 .442 .350
Yadier Molina 497 5.8% 11.1% .103 .301 .279 .323 .382 .305
Jhonny Peralta 549 7.8% 18.2% .143 .299 .261 .322 .404 .315
Stephen Piscotty 577 7.5% 16.6% .153 .310 .272 .333 .425 .334
Kolten Wong 571 5.6% 15.6% .128 .294 .261 .313 .389 .313
Randal Grichuk 488 5.1% 26.0% .209 .309 .253 .298 .462 .329
Greg Garcia 463 9.1% 19.7% .094 .297 .238 .321 .332 .294
Tommy Pham 334 8.1% 25.1% .158 .322 .253 .314 .411 .319
Matt Holliday 439 10.5% 16.9% .162 .300 .268 .358 .430 .342
Jedd Gyorko 522 6.5% 21.3% .158 .288 .251 .305 .409 .311
Aledmys Diaz 514 4.7% 19.8% .136 .291 .247 .290 .383 .298
Charlie Tilson 598 5.0% 17.6% .087 .313 .262 .301 .349 .301
Brandon Moss 492 9.6% 27.4% .207 .291 .237 .319 .444 .327
Dean Anna 455 9.9% 14.1% .096 .281 .246 .327 .342 .300
Jacob Wilson 426 6.6% 21.4% .137 .272 .231 .289 .368 .291
Cody Stanley 351 4.8% 20.8% .108 .291 .245 .283 .353 .278
Carson Kelly 432 5.3% 19.7% .120 .279 .237 .281 .357 .278
Matt Adams 357 5.0% 22.4% .161 .324 .272 .308 .433 .318
Eric Fryer 243 7.8% 22.6% .077 .287 .223 .289 .300 .268
Jeremy Hazelbaker 449 6.2% 28.5% .132 .322 .238 .291 .370 .297
Mike Ohlman 414 7.2% 24.6% .103 .319 .245 .303 .348 .289
Scott Moore 325 6.8% 24.6% .133 .279 .222 .290 .355 .284
Brayan Pena 305 5.6% 9.8% .071 .289 .265 .307 .336 .282
Matt Williams 334 8.4% 19.5% .077 .279 .227 .296 .304 .279
Breyvic Valera 544 6.1% 7.7% .056 .289 .267 .312 .323 .289
Dan Johnson 448 10.0% 18.8% .149 .254 .228 .308 .377 .299
Anthony Garcia 416 7.5% 24.5% .145 .284 .227 .299 .372 .300
Bruce Caldwell 442 8.4% 30.8% .123 .296 .211 .280 .334 .270
Nick Martini 464 7.8% 16.8% .086 .278 .234 .303 .320 .284
Patrick Wisdom 500 6.0% 32.2% .122 .284 .203 .251 .325 .256
Juan Herrera 346 4.0% 18.2% .055 .285 .235 .272 .290 .268
Jonathan Rodriguez 475 7.8% 26.1% .120 .301 .233 .295 .353 .290
Travis Tartamella 181 4.4% 31.5% .054 .277 .190 .229 .244 .209

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Matt Carpenter 628 5.9 120 -5 3.8 Corey Koskie
Yadier Molina 497 4.6 94 8 3.3 Paul Lo Duca
Jhonny Peralta 549 4.7 99 0 2.6 Eddie Bressoud
Stephen Piscotty 577 5.1 107 6 2.6 Jerry Morales
Kolten Wong 571 4.6 92 4 2.4 Jose Ortiz
Randal Grichuk 488 4.9 105 5 2.0 Nick Evans
Greg Garcia 463 3.9 81 3 1.7 Matt Erickson
Tommy Pham 334 4.9 98 2 1.7 Lou Collier
Matt Holliday 439 5.7 116 -4 1.6 Brian Downing
Jedd Gyorko 522 4.4 95 -2 1.6 Ed Sprague
Aledmys Diaz 514 3.9 84 0 1.4 Jose Castro
Charlie Tilson 598 3.8 79 4 1.2 Luis Polonia
Brandon Moss 492 5.0 108 -4 1.2 Graham Koonce
Dean Anna 455 3.9 85 0 1.1 Ed Giovanola
Jacob Wilson 426 3.7 80 3 1.0 Eric Duncan
Cody Stanley 351 3.6 74 1 1.0 Bob Kearney
Carson Kelly 432 3.6 74 -2 1.0 Rene Rivera
Matt Adams 357 4.9 102 3 0.9 Daryle Ward
Eric Fryer 243 3.1 63 2 0.6 Danny Ardoin
Jeremy Hazelbaker 449 4.0 81 4 0.6 Andy Tomberlin
Mike Ohlman 414 3.7 79 -8 0.6 Tom Nieto
Scott Moore 325 3.5 77 0 0.4 Mike Pagliarulo
Brayan Pena 305 3.8 77 -4 0.4 Jamie Burke
Matt Williams 334 3.1 66 1 0.4 Michael Garciaparra
Breyvic Valera 544 3.5 76 -3 0.1 Ismael Gallo
Dan Johnson 448 4.1 88 0 0.0 Pete O’Brien
Anthony Garcia 416 3.8 84 -2 0.0 Rafael Alvarez
Bruce Caldwell 442 3.3 68 -2 -0.1 Koby Clemens
Nick Martini 464 3.3 72 3 -0.2 Scott Bikowski
Patrick Wisdom 500 2.8 58 1 -0.4 Heath Honeycutt
Juan Herrera 346 2.6 55 -2 -0.6 Jose Munoz
Jonathan Rodriguez 475 3.7 78 0 -0.6 Byron Gettis
Travis Tartamella 181 1.9 31 0 -0.6 Dave Ullery

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Adam Wainwright R 34 23 23 156.0 126 32 11 146 58 54
Lance Lynn R 29 31 30 181.7 173 66 13 168 73 68
Carlos Martinez R 24 31 29 172.3 167 57 12 161 68 64
Michael Wacha R 24 26 26 154.0 137 49 15 140 64 60
Mike Leake R 28 28 28 176.7 114 44 16 176 79 74
Jaime Garcia L 29 16 16 92.7 72 23 8 88 37 35
Trevor Rosenthal R 26 72 0 74.7 97 29 4 58 22 21
Tyler Lyons L 28 28 21 135.7 118 29 18 134 64 60
Tim Cooney L 25 23 22 130.7 96 33 15 133 63 59
Zach Petrick R 26 28 22 133.3 94 34 15 140 67 63
Kevin Siegrist L 26 69 0 63.0 77 28 6 49 22 21
Alex Reyes R 21 23 23 102.0 101 67 9 91 51 48
Marco Gonzales L 24 21 21 109.0 84 34 14 113 57 53
Artie Reyes R 24 23 23 127.7 82 47 12 135 67 63
Miguel Socolovich R 29 41 0 49.0 49 17 3 43 18 17
Seung-hwan Oh R 33 63 0 62.7 65 16 7 56 26 24
Jordan Walden R 28 38 0 33.7 39 14 3 27 12 11
Samuel Tuivailala R 23 56 0 61.3 71 33 5 51 26 24
Matthew Bowman R 25 24 23 129.7 87 44 15 138 72 67
John Gast L 27 17 17 88.7 59 32 10 94 48 45
Jonathan Broxton R 32 57 0 52.7 48 18 5 48 22 21
Deck McGuire R 27 27 21 134.3 98 45 17 139 74 69
Matt Belisle R 36 47 0 47.7 38 15 3 47 20 19
Seth Maness R 27 76 0 71.3 49 14 7 74 32 30
Justin Wright L 26 49 0 58.0 48 23 5 56 27 25
Randy Choate L 40 57 0 26.7 22 7 2 25 12 11
Dean Kiekhefer L 27 49 0 63.3 41 10 6 66 29 27
Juan Gonzalez R 26 48 0 54.7 43 25 4 53 26 24
Marcus Hatley R 28 44 0 52.7 43 23 5 51 26 24
Ryan Sherriff L 26 32 5 61.7 38 22 6 66 33 31
Heath Wyatt R 27 49 0 67.7 41 23 6 71 34 32
Chris Perry R 25 44 0 58.7 58 34 6 53 30 28
Thomas Lee R 26 27 12 99.0 55 20 14 113 58 54
Mitch Harris R 30 41 0 48.0 34 21 5 49 26 24
Nick Greenwood L 28 36 15 104.3 50 26 15 121 64 60
Jayson Aquino L 23 21 21 115.3 66 40 18 133 74 69
J.C. Sulbaran R 26 28 19 106.7 72 60 25 127 86 80

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Adam Wainwright 156.0 646 19.5% 5.0% .285 3.12 3.10 81 80
Lance Lynn 181.7 779 22.2% 8.5% .298 3.37 3.34 88 86
Carlos Martinez 172.3 735 22.7% 7.8% .303 3.34 3.14 87 81
Michael Wacha 154.0 651 21.0% 7.5% .282 3.51 3.66 92 95
Mike Leake 176.7 750 15.2% 5.9% .281 3.77 3.83 98 99
Jaime Garcia 92.7 389 18.5% 5.9% .282 3.40 3.54 89 91
Trevor Rosenthal 74.7 311 31.2% 9.3% .303 2.53 2.43 66 63
Tyler Lyons 135.7 570 20.7% 5.1% .291 3.98 3.90 104 101
Tim Cooney 130.7 558 17.2% 5.9% .290 4.06 4.06 106 105
Zach Petrick 133.3 574 16.4% 5.9% .295 4.25 4.09 111 106
Kevin Siegrist 63.0 266 28.9% 10.5% .283 3.00 3.38 78 87
Alex Reyes 102.0 464 21.8% 14.4% .292 4.24 4.48 111 116
Marco Gonzales 109.0 474 17.7% 7.2% .293 4.38 4.31 114 111
Artie Reyes 127.7 565 14.5% 8.3% .295 4.44 4.32 116 112
Miguel Socolovich 49.0 207 23.7% 8.2% .294 3.12 3.06 81 79
Seung-hwan Oh 62.7 260 25.0% 6.2% .290 3.45 3.40 90 88
Jordan Walden 33.7 142 27.4% 9.9% .279 2.94 3.07 77 79
Samuel Tuivailala 61.3 268 26.5% 12.3% .293 3.52 3.52 92 91
Matthew Bowman 129.7 571 15.2% 7.7% .294 4.65 4.48 121 116
John Gast 88.7 392 15.0% 8.2% .293 4.57 4.52 119 117
Jonathan Broxton 52.7 224 21.4% 8.0% .283 3.59 3.60 94 93
Deck McGuire 134.3 587 16.7% 7.7% .291 4.62 4.47 121 115
Matt Belisle 47.7 205 18.5% 7.3% .299 3.59 3.33 94 86
Seth Maness 71.3 302 16.2% 4.6% .291 3.79 3.57 99 92
Justin Wright 58.0 253 19.0% 9.1% .295 3.88 3.97 101 103
Randy Choate 26.7 112 19.6% 6.2% .302 3.71 3.72 97 96
Dean Kiekhefer 63.3 266 15.4% 3.8% .293 3.84 3.72 100 96
Juan Gonzalez 54.7 242 17.8% 10.3% .293 3.95 3.91 103 101
Marcus Hatley 52.7 232 18.5% 9.9% .291 4.10 4.07 107 105
Ryan Sherriff 61.7 273 13.9% 8.1% .295 4.52 4.36 118 113
Heath Wyatt 67.7 297 13.8% 7.7% .291 4.26 4.17 111 108
Chris Perry 58.7 263 22.0% 12.9% .292 4.30 4.36 112 112
Thomas Lee 99.0 430 12.8% 4.7% .295 4.91 4.65 128 120
Mitch Harris 48.0 214 15.9% 9.8% .289 4.50 4.41 117 114
Nick Greenwood 104.3 460 10.9% 5.7% .291 5.18 4.91 135 127
Jayson Aquino 115.3 519 12.7% 7.7% .296 5.38 5.27 140 136
J.C. Sulbaran 106.7 507 14.2% 11.8% .297 6.75 6.74 176 174

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Adam Wainwright 156.0 7.27 1.85 0.63 123 3.6 Derek Lowe
Lance Lynn 181.7 8.57 3.27 0.64 114 3.5 Jim Maloney
Carlos Martinez 172.3 8.72 2.98 0.63 114 3.4 Jason Schmidt
Michael Wacha 154.0 8.01 2.86 0.88 109 2.7 John Thomson
Mike Leake 176.7 5.81 2.24 0.81 102 2.5 Lary Sorensen
Jaime Garcia 92.7 6.99 2.23 0.78 113 1.8 John Candelaria
Trevor Rosenthal 74.7 11.69 3.49 0.48 151 1.5 Bryan Harvey
Tyler Lyons 135.7 7.83 1.92 1.19 96 1.4 Scott Downs
Tim Cooney 130.7 6.61 2.27 1.03 94 1.3 Darrell May
Zach Petrick 133.3 6.35 2.30 1.01 90 1.0 Ryan Whitaker
Kevin Siegrist 63.0 11.00 4.00 0.86 128 0.9 Mitch Williams
Alex Reyes 102.0 8.91 5.91 0.79 90 0.8 Matt Clement
Marco Gonzales 109.0 6.94 2.81 1.16 87 0.7 Sean Lawrence
Artie Reyes 127.7 5.78 3.31 0.85 86 0.7 Jake Dittler
Miguel Socolovich 49.0 9.00 3.12 0.55 123 0.5 Ken Ryan
Seung-hwan Oh 62.7 9.33 2.30 1.00 111 0.5 Guillermo Mota
Jordan Walden 33.7 10.42 3.74 0.80 130 0.5 Ryne Duren
Samuel Tuivailala 61.3 10.42 4.85 0.73 109 0.4 Jeff Zaske
Matthew Bowman 129.7 6.04 3.05 1.04 82 0.4 Paul O’Malley
John Gast 88.7 5.99 3.25 1.01 84 0.4 Tommy Phelps
Jonathan Broxton 52.7 8.20 3.07 0.85 107 0.3 Gregg Olson
Deck McGuire 134.3 6.57 3.02 1.14 83 0.3 Reggie Ritter
Matt Belisle 47.7 7.17 2.83 0.57 107 0.2 Mike Maddux
Seth Maness 71.3 6.19 1.77 0.88 101 0.2 Jeff Tam
Justin Wright 58.0 7.45 3.57 0.78 99 0.2 Mark Dempsey
Randy Choate 26.7 7.42 2.36 0.67 103 0.1 Terry Mulholland
Dean Kiekhefer 63.3 5.83 1.42 0.85 100 0.1 Roberto Rivera
Juan Gonzalez 54.7 7.07 4.11 0.66 97 0.1 Jamie Emiliano
Marcus Hatley 52.7 7.34 3.93 0.85 93 0.0 Ryan Baker
Ryan Sherriff 61.7 5.54 3.21 0.88 85 -0.1 Scott Eibey
Heath Wyatt 67.7 5.45 3.06 0.80 90 -0.2 Robert Paulk
Chris Perry 58.7 8.89 5.21 0.92 89 -0.2 Michael Doyne
Thomas Lee 99.0 5.00 1.82 1.27 78 -0.2 Bruce Walton
Mitch Harris 48.0 6.38 3.94 0.94 85 -0.3 Jarod Juelsgaard
Nick Greenwood 104.3 4.31 2.24 1.29 74 -0.7 Corey Hamman
Jayson Aquino 115.3 5.15 3.12 1.41 71 -0.8 Kevin King
J.C. Sulbaran 106.7 6.07 5.06 2.11 57 -2.6 Mike Romano

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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Regression is Mean
Member
Regression is Mean
4 months 7 days ago

Corey Koskie… what an unfortunate end that was. One of my favorite players in his Twin years.

rkochan2
Member
Member
rkochan2
4 months 7 days ago

Agreed. One of my favorite part about the projections are the comps, especially because I frequently see names I haven’t thought of in years and I like going back to see how their stats look more sabermetrically now, at least in terms of WAR and FIP, etc.

jruby
Member
Member
jruby
4 months 7 days ago

He was always one of my top targets in my favorite video game ever, MLB 2006 The Show, along with Jason Lane and Bobby Crosby. Alas, if only their careers had played out in real life like they did on my PS2!

devo1d
Member
Member
devo1d
3 months 26 days ago

Jason Lane….holy shit. I forgot how good Koskie was. He was a really solid player.

Austin
Member
Austin
4 months 7 days ago

Hasn’t Lance Lynn already been ruled out for the season?

Owen S
Member
Owen S
4 months 7 days ago

Ug. Why doesn’t anybody ever read the…

“Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016”

Famous Mortimer
Member
Member
4 months 6 days ago

It might be easier, for the system and for comments, if these reports filtered out people who’ve already been ruled out for the year. I don’t think knowing the projection for a guy who is 100% not going to play is all that useful.

Ivan_Grushenko
Member
Ivan_Grushenko
4 months 6 days ago

Or the confused people could just read the disclaimer and the rest of us can enjoy the projection as Dan intended.

Famous Mortimer
Member
Member
4 months 5 days ago

You’re right, why bother making it remotely user friendly?

Antonio Bananas
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Member
Antonio Bananas
4 months 3 days ago

I like having Lynn on there so I know how much of an affect its going to have.

Radermecher
Member
Radermecher
4 months 7 days ago

Austin,Lynn is out,this Zip needs to be zapped.

Brians Sticky Sock
Member
Brians Sticky Sock
4 months 7 days ago

Seriously dude, if you’re not going to read the disclaimer, read the comment right above yours…

Reading comprehension is a skill that can only be utilized by *reading*…

JDX
Member
JDX
4 months 7 days ago

He said “Austin,” which is the name of the person who posted the “comment right above [his].” So, I’ll presume he read that comment and was replying to said comment…

d_i
Member
Member
d_i
4 months 7 days ago

Don’t know if it’s true or not, but my friend used to always repeat this useless fact: Ed Sprague has the longest one syllable name in baseball

jruby
Member
Member
jruby
4 months 7 days ago

We all know that Jarred Saltalamacchia has the longest last name in MLB history at 14 letters. But his then-Red Sox teammate Will Middlebrooks has a 12-letter surname! Barring any instances of two 13-letter last name teammates, then, Salty and Will have the record for “longest combined surnames of teammates/consecutive hitters in the batting order.”

You know. Because you gave a name-based trivia fact. So. You know.

Umm. Just neighin’?

sunshine_and_rainbows
Member
sunshine_and_rainbows
4 months 7 days ago

The Cubs come close. In 2004, the Cubs had Todd Hollandsworth (13 letters) and Mark Grudzielanek (12 letters). They also had Nomar Garciaparra (11 letters) that year. I can’t be bothered to do extensive research but I have to think the Cubs of that year are up there for the record of “longest combined surnames of a trio of position players.”

sunshine_and_rainbows
Member
sunshine_and_rainbows
4 months 7 days ago

(just realizing that Kyle Farnesworth (11 letters) was on that team too. This makes me slightly less bothered by the soul-crushing late-season collapse of the 2004 Cubs)

David
Member
David
4 months 7 days ago

Which one, the Ed Sprague who pitched for the Reds or the Ed Sprague who played 3b for the Blue Jays?

Baron Samedi
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Baron Samedi
4 months 7 days ago

lol.

MonkeyMan
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Member
MonkeyMan
4 months 7 days ago

Jerry Morales! Love these player comps.

Ivan_Grushenko
Member
Ivan_Grushenko
4 months 6 days ago

It seems to be a common opinion that successful teams all have good rotations but the last two World Series winners didn’t, unless you count Bumgarner as a rotation unto himself. Neither did the 2012 Giants or the 2006 Cardinals. Obviously having a good rotation is a plus, but it’s not clear to me that it’s any more of a plus than a good infield or good anything else.

Antonio Bananas
Member
Member
Antonio Bananas
4 months 3 days ago

I think it’s still the sum. You can win with am exceptional rotation but you’ll need to be solid elsewhere too. Same with a powerhouse lineup, shut down pen, depth, etc.

devo1d
Member
Member
devo1d
3 months 26 days ago

I was gonna correct you on the 2012 Giants, but they were middle of the pack, if not below-average by nearly every metric. It’s funny how facts don’t always coincide with what we think we remember…..

Ivan_Grushenko
Member
Ivan_Grushenko
4 months 6 days ago

Out of curiosity how is Tommy Pham a better player on a per PA basis than Randal Grichuk if he’s a worse hitter and worse fielder? Is he an historically awesome baserunner or something?

jruby
Member
Member
jruby
4 months 6 days ago

I think most of Pham’s innings are projected at CF, and most of Grichuk’s are in the corners. All I can think of, anyway.

wpDiscuz