2016 ZiPS Projections – Tampa Bay Rays

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Tampa Bay center fielder Kevin Kiermaier hasn’t merely recorded more wins than every other 31st-round selection from the 2010 draft, but he appears also to have recorded more wins than all but six players — including (and, it would seem, limited to) Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Matt Harvey, Manny Machado, Chris Sale, and Andrelton Simmons — from that same draft class. What else he’s done is to distinguish himself as the prohibitive star of your 2016 Rays. Taken out of Parkland College in Champaign, Illinois, Kiermaier has now produced a 9.5 WAR in fewer than two full seasons’ worth of plate appearances. His projection for the 2016 campaign (521 PA, 4.2 zWAR) calls for roughly a repeat of the same.

After Kiermaier, the 2016 iteration of the club appears to be an exercise in uninspiring competence. Desmond Jennings is roughly average. Logan Forsythe and Brad Miller are roughly average. Whoever’s platooning in right field is likely to provide a roughly average platoon. The club’s weaknesses are at designated hitter and first base. Neither Logan Morrison (445 PA, 0.0 zWAR) nor James Loney (498 PA, 0.0 zWAR) appear well-equipped to benefit the team at either position.

Pitchers
Whatever the club’s difficulties in 2015, Tampa Bay’s rotation was about as successful as one could reasonably expect. Despite the total absence of Alex Cobb and the better version of Matt Moore, Rays starters produced the 10th- or sixth-best collective WAR in the majors last year, according to the FIP and runs-based version of that metric, respectively. While not expected to match last year’s numbers, right-hander Chris Archer (195.1 IP, 4.2 zWAR) nevertheless profiles as a legitimate No. 1 starter. The end of the rotation, meanwhile, is less strong. The departure of Nate Karns, for example, renders the team more reliant on Moore (109.0 IP, 0.6 zWAR) whose stuff has been diminished by injury.

Shall we mention the relievers? No one is stopping us. While the acquisition of Corey Dickerson in exchange for Jake McGee seems to represent a net-gain for the Rays overall, it has also thinned out the back end of the bullpen. ZiPS expects Brad Boxberger (69.0 IP, 0.8 zWAR) to rebound from a tough season, but doesn’t project him to exhibit the sort of per-inning dominance typical of a proper relief ace. Indeed, there’s even an argument that Xavier Cedeno (44.2 IP, 0.4 zWAR) is his equal on a rate basis: both are expected to produce park-adjusted ERAs roughly 15% better than league average.

Bench/Prospects
There are a number of field players omitted from the depth-chart graphic below who will nevertheless receive considerable playing time in 2016. Infielder Nick Franklin (465 PA, 0.9 zWAR) once again finds himself competing with Brad Miller for playing time — except now in Florida and not Washington. Tim Beckham (303 PA, 0.0 zWAR) and Brandon Guyer (352 PA, 1.0 zWAR) recorded over 600 plate appearance between them last year and figure to play a not insignifcant role in this year’s version of the team. Among rookie-eligible players, utility sort Taylor Motter (475 PA, 1.1 zWAR) and infielder Daniel Robertson (502 PA, 1.1 zWAR) receive the top projections. The organization features a couple of pitchers who appear capable of throwing competent innings in the majors. Right-hander Matt Andriese (128.1 IP, 1.7 zWAR) profiles as a useful swingman, while Jacob Faria (126.1IP, 1.0 zWAR) and Blake Snell (121.0 IP, 1.1 zWAR) are both promising prospects.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Tampa Bay-ers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Rays Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Kevin Kiermaier L 26 CF 521 60 128 22 10 10 44 15 6
Evan Longoria R 30 3B 628 75 146 29 2 22 77 3 1
Brad Miller L 26 SS 538 62 121 21 5 13 54 10 4
Logan Forsythe R 29 2B 449 50 101 20 2 11 44 7 2
Desmond Jennings R 29 LF 392 49 86 18 3 8 31 13 5
Corey Dickerson L 27 LF 425 48 102 21 4 17 47 5 5
Taylor Motter R 26 RF 475 53 108 23 1 11 47 15 7
Daniel Robertson R 22 SS 502 55 108 21 3 6 40 3 4
Steven Souza R 27 RF 418 54 86 17 1 15 43 14 6
Curt Casali R 27 C 308 34 59 12 0 9 29 1 0
Brandon Guyer R 30 LF 352 45 80 16 2 5 28 9 2
Steve Pearce R 33 LF 299 34 63 14 1 11 32 2 1
Nick Franklin B 25 2B 465 54 96 18 3 12 47 8 3
Hank Conger B 28 C 250 24 50 11 0 7 26 0 1
Luke Maile R 25 C 378 37 77 14 1 5 30 2 1
Richie Shaffer R 25 3B 491 56 94 22 1 18 55 3 1
Dayron Varona R 28 CF 380 39 87 14 5 9 43 4 7
Rene Rivera R 32 C 320 24 64 14 1 6 32 0 1
Ryan Brett B 24 2B 420 45 97 18 3 6 34 12 6
Patrick Leonard R 23 3B 527 59 107 23 2 12 45 8 1
Justin O’Conner R 24 C 446 41 87 19 1 10 40 5 1
Willy Adames R 20 SS 495 43 91 18 5 8 39 6 3
Jake DePew R 24 C 214 17 38 6 1 2 13 0 2
James Loney L 32 1B 498 40 127 22 0 7 48 3 2
Johnny Field R 24 RF 470 51 96 24 2 10 46 12 6
Logan Morrison L 28 1B 445 48 96 17 2 13 50 6 3
Tim Beckham R 26 2B 303 32 65 11 3 5 30 5 3
Mikie Mahtook R 26 RF 556 58 122 26 4 10 53 14 5
Juniel Querecuto B 23 SS 435 41 95 14 3 2 31 2 6
Jake Bauers L 20 1B 537 64 120 23 3 13 61 6 7
Tommy Coyle L 25 2B 463 46 84 14 3 6 32 16 6
Jose Constanza L 32 LF 325 30 73 6 2 0 20 13 7
Kyle Roller L 28 1B 488 52 88 17 2 17 53 0 0
Cameron Seitzer L 26 1B 507 52 111 21 0 9 45 1 2
Grady Sizemore L 33 RF 309 28 64 14 1 6 29 3 2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Kevin Kiermaier 521 5.4% 18.8% .149 .313 .265 .309 .414 .320
Evan Longoria 628 8.3% 20.5% .176 .296 .260 .325 .436 .321
Brad Miller 538 8.6% 21.0% .145 .300 .252 .316 .397 .315
Logan Forsythe 449 8.5% 19.2% .143 .295 .254 .328 .397 .321
Desmond Jennings 392 8.7% 19.9% .138 .294 .246 .317 .384 .317
Corey Dickerson 425 6.8% 26.4% .203 .320 .260 .311 .463 .333
Taylor Motter 475 6.7% 20.4% .134 .295 .250 .303 .384 .309
Daniel Robertson 502 6.8% 20.5% .099 .294 .239 .307 .338 .292
Steven Souza 418 9.8% 30.9% .174 .313 .234 .317 .408 .327
Curt Casali 308 8.8% 26.6% .143 .272 .215 .296 .358 .291
Brandon Guyer 352 5.7% 16.8% .113 .302 .257 .333 .370 .317
Steve Pearce 299 8.7% 21.4% .185 .271 .238 .318 .423 .324
Nick Franklin 465 8.8% 25.6% .144 .291 .230 .299 .374 .298
Hank Conger 250 8.4% 24.8% .144 .277 .225 .298 .369 .291
Luke Maile 378 6.6% 21.2% .089 .272 .222 .278 .311 .264
Richie Shaffer 491 7.5% 33.0% .175 .284 .212 .278 .387 .290
Dayron Varona 380 2.6% 21.6% .141 .285 .241 .268 .382 .290
Rene Rivera 320 5.0% 24.4% .115 .271 .217 .262 .332 .257
Ryan Brett 420 3.8% 20.5% .106 .297 .246 .282 .352 .288
Patrick Leonard 527 6.6% 29.8% .131 .302 .222 .285 .353 .285
Justin O’Conner 446 2.9% 35.9% .119 .295 .203 .229 .322 .242
Willy Adames 495 7.9% 37.6% .115 .319 .202 .265 .317 .261
Jake DePew 214 5.6% 32.7% .071 .283 .192 .241 .263 .227
James Loney 498 6.2% 11.6% .093 .299 .275 .319 .368 .299
Johnny Field 470 4.9% 27.2% .134 .290 .223 .276 .357 .286
Logan Morrison 445 9.0% 16.4% .150 .263 .241 .315 .391 .310
Tim Beckham 303 5.9% 26.4% .115 .306 .235 .282 .350 .282
Mikie Mahtook 556 5.0% 26.6% .124 .310 .236 .286 .360 .291
Juniel Querecuto 435 5.1% 17.9% .065 .285 .235 .277 .300 .259
Jake Bauers 537 7.1% 21.6% .139 .293 .245 .301 .384 .303
Tommy Coyle 463 8.4% 29.4% .091 .280 .200 .271 .291 .264
Jose Constanza 325 5.5% 15.4% .033 .290 .243 .287 .276 .264
Kyle Roller 488 8.2% 36.3% .164 .289 .201 .279 .365 .281
Cameron Seitzer 507 7.3% 24.9% .103 .308 .240 .300 .343 .284
Grady Sizemore 309 6.8% 21.7% .120 .272 .225 .282 .345 .281

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Kevin Kiermaier 521 4.8 101 20 4.2 Deion Sanders
Evan Longoria 628 5.2 112 2 3.4 Pinky Higgins
Brad Miller 538 4.6 99 -2 2.3 Dick McAuliffe
Logan Forsythe 449 4.8 103 1 2.1 Junior Spivey
Desmond Jennings 392 4.5 96 7 1.5 Benny Agbayani
Corey Dickerson 425 5.1 114 -1 1.3 John Rodriguez
Taylor Motter 475 4.2 92 6 1.1 Barry Bonnell
Daniel Robertson 502 3.6 82 -1 1.1 Willy Aybar
Steven Souza 418 4.6 102 0 1.0 Jack Voigt
Curt Casali 308 3.7 83 -2 1.0 Chris Snyder
Brandon Guyer 352 4.7 98 1 1.0 Alex Ochoa
Steve Pearce 299 4.8 106 1 1.0 Adam Hyzdu
Nick Franklin 465 4.0 88 -2 0.9 Jay Canizaro
Hank Conger 250 3.8 87 -1 0.9 Steve Holm
Luke Maile 378 3.0 66 3 0.9 Mike Nickeas
Richie Shaffer 491 3.7 85 -1 0.8 Joe Biasucci
Dayron Varona 380 3.4 81 4 0.6 Tom Marsh
Rene Rivera 320 2.9 66 3 0.6 George Mitterwald
Ryan Brett 420 3.6 77 2 0.6 John Wehner
Patrick Leonard 527 3.6 78 -2 0.5 Jim Opie
Justin O’Conner 446 2.6 53 4 0.3 Joe Ayrault
Willy Adames 495 2.8 63 1 0.1 Royce Clayton
Jake DePew 214 1.9 42 5 0.0 Andres Pagan
James Loney 498 4.4 93 0 0.0 Sean Casey
Johnny Field 470 3.4 77 4 0.0 Brett Carroll
Logan Morrison 445 4.4 97 -3 0.0 Travis Lee
Tim Beckham 303 3.5 77 -2 0.0 Pat Osborn
Mikie Mahtook 556 3.7 81 1 0.0 Scott Krause
Juniel Querecuto 435 2.7 63 0 -0.2 Brandon Fahey
Jake Bauers 537 4.0 91 -2 -0.4 Logan Morrison
Tommy Coyle 463 2.8 58 0 -0.5 Adam Davis
Jose Constanza 325 2.8 60 3 -0.7 Jim Buccheri
Kyle Roller 488 3.4 80 0 -0.7 Mike Hocutt
Cameron Seitzer 507 3.6 81 -1 -0.8 Alejandro Freire
Grady Sizemore 309 3.4 75 -6 -1.0 Dann Howitt

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Chris Archer R 27 33 33 195.3 202 66 16 169 75 70
Jake Odorizzi R 26 31 31 177.3 165 51 20 161 76 71
Alex Cobb R 28 21 21 128.3 111 41 11 118 52 49
Drew Smyly L 27 23 22 118.7 121 33 16 106 51 48
Matt Andriese R 26 35 21 128.3 99 31 12 129 58 54
Erasmo Ramirez R 26 30 25 148.0 111 43 18 148 75 70
Blake Snell L 23 26 24 121.0 123 62 14 109 60 56
Jacob Faria R 22 24 23 126.3 114 52 15 123 64 60
Brad Boxberger R 28 67 0 69.0 90 30 8 54 27 25
Matt Moore L 27 21 21 109.0 103 48 15 105 58 54
Alex Colome R 27 32 18 109.3 83 39 12 111 57 53
Taylor Guerrieri R 23 14 14 61.0 47 19 7 61 30 28
Austin Pruitt R 26 23 21 123.0 76 33 15 134 66 62
Chase Whitley R 27 21 10 66.3 51 21 7 68 33 31
Xavier Cedeno L 29 57 0 44.7 49 14 5 39 17 16
Danny Farquhar R 29 65 0 78.7 83 26 8 70 34 32
Dana Eveland L 32 36 7 69.7 52 25 6 70 34 32
Steve Geltz R 28 59 0 58.3 61 23 7 49 26 24
Burch Smith R 26 9 9 40.7 32 14 6 42 22 21
Grayson Garvin L 26 14 14 43.7 29 15 5 47 25 23
Jonny Venters L 31 21 0 21.3 17 11 2 21 11 10
Grant Balfour R 38 29 0 28.3 25 16 3 26 15 14
Adam Wilk L 28 26 24 140.0 86 41 21 155 83 78
Justin Marks L 28 25 14 90.7 65 45 11 96 55 51
Enny Romero L 25 33 16 104.3 85 51 13 108 62 58
Jhan Marinez R 27 48 0 59.3 57 30 8 56 32 30
Tyler Sturdevant R 30 32 0 36.7 31 15 6 37 21 20
Everett Teaford L 32 25 16 93.7 63 42 13 101 58 54
Adam Kolarek L 27 50 0 64.3 47 29 7 66 35 33
Jaime Schultz R 25 21 20 86.3 90 64 14 82 55 51
Eddie Gamboa R 31 22 18 103.3 72 65 12 106 64 60
Ryan Garton R 26 41 0 62.0 47 36 6 62 35 33
Kyle McPherson R 28 19 8 56.7 39 16 11 65 37 35
Mark Sappington R 25 49 0 67.7 58 45 7 66 39 36
Andrew Bellatti R 24 43 4 73.0 63 26 14 75 44 41
Bradin Hagens R 27 28 21 123.0 68 64 14 136 77 72
Parker Markel R 25 48 0 62.7 42 31 8 67 39 36
Ryne Stanek R 24 20 15 80.3 54 39 14 89 55 51

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Chris Archer 195.3 821 24.6% 8.0% .288 3.23 3.19 84 81
Jake Odorizzi 177.3 744 22.2% 6.9% .280 3.60 3.64 93 93
Alex Cobb 128.3 544 20.4% 7.5% .285 3.44 3.54 89 90
Drew Smyly 118.7 495 24.4% 6.7% .279 3.64 3.68 94 94
Matt Andriese 128.3 545 18.2% 5.7% .295 3.79 3.62 98 92
Erasmo Ramirez 148.0 635 17.5% 6.8% .286 4.26 4.20 111 107
Blake Snell 121.0 534 23.0% 11.6% .289 4.17 4.26 108 108
Jacob Faria 126.3 554 20.6% 9.4% .296 4.27 4.27 111 109
Brad Boxberger 69.0 291 30.9% 10.3% .288 3.26 3.31 85 84
Matt Moore 109.0 480 21.5% 10.0% .291 4.46 4.44 116 113
Alex Colome 109.3 478 17.4% 8.2% .292 4.36 4.17 113 106
Taylor Guerrieri 61.0 263 17.9% 7.2% .289 4.13 4.14 107 105
Austin Pruitt 123.0 536 14.2% 6.2% .294 4.54 4.43 118 113
Chase Whitley 66.3 288 17.7% 7.3% .298 4.21 4.07 109 103
Xavier Cedeno 44.7 187 26.2% 7.5% .290 3.22 3.31 84 84
Danny Farquhar 78.7 332 25.0% 7.8% .292 3.66 3.35 95 85
Dana Eveland 69.7 304 17.1% 8.2% .296 4.13 3.94 107 100
Steve Geltz 58.3 247 24.7% 9.3% .275 3.70 3.81 96 97
Burch Smith 40.7 178 18.0% 7.9% .290 4.65 4.63 121 118
Grayson Garvin 43.7 193 15.0% 7.8% .298 4.74 4.43 123 113
Jonny Venters 21.3 96 17.7% 11.5% .293 4.22 4.28 110 109
Grant Balfour 28.3 127 19.7% 12.6% .281 4.45 4.41 115 112
Adam Wilk 140.0 616 14.0% 6.7% .291 5.01 4.83 130 123
Justin Marks 90.7 413 15.7% 10.9% .296 5.06 4.87 131 124
Enny Romero 104.3 472 18.0% 10.8% .299 5.00 4.71 130 120
Jhan Marinez 59.3 264 21.6% 11.4% .289 4.55 4.51 118 115
Tyler Sturdevant 36.7 162 19.1% 9.3% .287 4.91 4.85 127 123
Everett Teaford 93.7 424 14.9% 9.9% .293 5.19 5.07 135 129
Adam Kolarek 64.3 288 16.3% 10.1% .294 4.62 4.55 120 116
Jaime Schultz 86.3 405 22.2% 15.8% .293 5.32 5.53 138 141
Eddie Gamboa 103.3 481 15.0% 13.5% .288 5.23 5.25 136 134
Ryan Garton 62.0 284 16.5% 12.7% .293 4.79 4.69 124 119
Kyle McPherson 56.7 251 15.5% 6.4% .297 5.56 5.26 144 134
Mark Sappington 67.7 314 18.5% 14.3% .295 4.79 4.91 124 125
Andrew Bellatti 73.0 320 19.7% 8.1% .285 5.05 5.06 131 129
Bradin Hagens 123.0 569 12.0% 11.2% .293 5.27 5.21 137 132
Parker Markel 62.7 286 14.7% 10.8% .293 5.17 5.10 134 130
Ryne Stanek 80.3 369 14.6% 10.6% .292 5.71 5.67 148 144

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Chris Archer 195.3 9.31 3.04 0.74 119 4.2 Ramon Martinez
Jake Odorizzi 177.3 8.38 2.59 1.02 107 3.0 Jose Guzman
Alex Cobb 128.3 7.79 2.88 0.77 112 2.4 Kris Benson
Drew Smyly 118.7 9.17 2.50 1.21 105 1.8 Ted Lilly
Matt Andriese 128.3 6.94 2.17 0.84 101 1.7 Ramiro Mendoza
Erasmo Ramirez 148.0 6.75 2.61 1.09 90 1.1 Jeff Shaw
Blake Snell 121.0 9.15 4.61 1.04 92 1.1 Jorge de la Rosa
Jacob Faria 126.3 8.12 3.71 1.07 90 1.0 Joaquin Benoit
Brad Boxberger 69.0 11.74 3.91 1.04 118 0.8 Brad Lidge
Matt Moore 109.0 8.50 3.96 1.24 86 0.6 Al Leiter
Alex Colome 109.3 6.83 3.21 0.99 88 0.6 Doug Cinnella
Taylor Guerrieri 61.0 6.93 2.80 1.03 93 0.6 Chien-Ming Wang
Austin Pruitt 123.0 5.56 2.41 1.10 85 0.5 Mike Lincoln
Chase Whitley 66.3 6.92 2.85 0.95 91 0.5 David Lundquist
Xavier Cedeno 44.7 9.87 2.82 1.01 119 0.4 George Sherrill
Danny Farquhar 78.7 9.49 2.97 0.91 105 0.4 Scott Proctor
Dana Eveland 69.7 6.71 3.23 0.77 93 0.4 C.J. Nitkowski
Steve Geltz 58.3 9.42 3.55 1.08 104 0.3 John Briscoe
Burch Smith 40.7 7.08 3.10 1.33 83 0.1 Larry Carter
Grayson Garvin 43.7 5.97 3.09 1.03 81 0.1 Derron Spiller
Jonny Venters 21.3 7.18 4.65 0.85 91 -0.1 Al Hrabosky
Grant Balfour 28.3 7.95 5.09 0.95 86 -0.1 Mike Fetters
Adam Wilk 140.0 5.53 2.64 1.35 77 -0.2 Lance Davis
Justin Marks 90.7 6.45 4.47 1.09 76 -0.4 Scott Forster
Enny Romero 104.3 7.33 4.40 1.12 77 -0.4 Dirk Hayhurst
Jhan Marinez 59.3 8.65 4.55 1.21 84 -0.4 Tracy Thorpe
Tyler Sturdevant 36.7 7.60 3.68 1.47 78 -0.4 Chuck Smith
Everett Teaford 93.7 6.05 4.03 1.25 74 -0.5 Eric DuBose
Adam Kolarek 64.3 6.58 4.06 0.98 83 -0.5 Justin Lamber
Jaime Schultz 86.3 9.39 6.67 1.46 72 -0.5 Ken Chenard
Eddie Gamboa 103.3 6.27 5.66 1.05 73 -0.5 Jeff Robinson
Ryan Garton 62.0 6.82 5.23 0.87 80 -0.6 Darin Moore
Kyle McPherson 56.7 6.19 2.54 1.75 69 -0.6 Todd Williams
Mark Sappington 67.7 7.71 5.98 0.93 80 -0.6 Dusty Hughes
Andrew Bellatti 73.0 7.77 3.21 1.73 76 -0.7 Joe Cotton
Bradin Hagens 123.0 4.98 4.68 1.02 73 -0.7 Charlie Zink
Parker Markel 62.7 6.03 4.45 1.15 74 -0.9 Matt Smith
Ryne Stanek 80.3 6.05 4.37 1.57 67 -1.0 Kerry Burchett

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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Carson Cistulli has just published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Mark Davidson
Member
Member
3 months 19 days ago

It’s only right that we start calling Kiermaier ‘Prime Time’ now.

John Elway
Member
3 months 19 days ago

I also think when he robs someone of a HR, we can start calling that a “Pick Four”

Just neighing.

Joeys Bat Flip
Member
Joeys Bat Flip
3 months 19 days ago

Jake Bauers’ comp doesn’t inspire much confidence. Why don’t the Rays just bench him in favour of Logan Morrison? I think he’s projected to be better….

HarryLives
Member
HarryLives
3 months 19 days ago

Someone comparing him to Jake Bauers is the nicest thing anyone has said about Logan Morrison in years.

dl80
Member
dl80
3 months 19 days ago

Logan Morrison = Travis Lee

“It feels right, Brian. It feels right.”

par016
Member
par016
3 months 19 days ago

Is this the last team? How long until we will be able to see all the ZiPS on the projection page?

kdm628496
Member
kdm628496
3 months 19 days ago

now that all 30 teams are out, will zips be added to the projections tab (including traded players)?

Mooser
Member
Mooser
3 months 19 days ago

If Smyly can get his HR/FB ratio back down to 10% he is as good as Archer.

Cory Settoon
Member
3 months 19 days ago

He needs to get his healthiness back up too.

dcholcomb
Member
3 months 19 days ago

What if the Rays signed Barry Lamar Bonds to be their 2016 designated hitter? I’ve got to think a 51-year-old Bonds actually may be better than Morrison or whoever. Bonds is in great shape. It’s not that bad of an idea, is it? Besides the media hoopla that would accompany such a signing.

kdm628496
Member
kdm628496
3 months 19 days ago

marlins already signed him

dcholcomb
Member
3 months 19 days ago

Quit playing games with my heart.

wily mo
Member
3 months 18 days ago

taylor motter’s comp is barry bon…nell… that’s something

diegosanchez
Member
diegosanchez
3 months 19 days ago

I think the projections shown are a pretty solid floor for all these players, with the exception of Longoria, catcher position, Jennings, and Odorizzi. Some are very likely to beat this projection (Erasmo, Forsythe) while it would not surprise me if many others do as well.

HarryLives
Member
HarryLives
3 months 19 days ago

Yeah, there’s a lot of youth on this team as usual, and by virtue of that youth, we could see unexpectedly big years from guys like Dickerson, Souza, Odorizzi, Miller, Colome, Erasmo, and Moore.

HarryLives
Member
HarryLives
3 months 19 days ago

Kevin Kiermaier is young enough to take a significant step forward with the bat, too.

Mike N
Member
Mike N
3 months 19 days ago

Wonderfully cromulent use of embiggen.

lipitorkid
Member
lipitorkid
3 months 18 days ago

Why couldn’t they play Souza at 1B or DH and then have him platoon in LF or RF when those guys need a day off. There is no way Logan or Looney is a more dangerous hitter than Souza. Yeah I know his AVG isn’t pretty, but he has always had good OBP skills and his power is way better at the 5 or 6 spot than the other two.

matt
Member
matt
3 months 18 days ago

Wow! This projection system is crazy! I don’t understand how it thinks Drew Smyly and Jake Odorizzi won’t combine for 15 zWAR+, they are a better combo than Greinke and Kershaw

rkelley
Member
rkelley
3 months 9 days ago

Rays fans, get a 5% discount on your tickets via my personal link: http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/tb/ticketing/friends_family.jsp?source=rkelley

I work in the Rays baseball ops department.

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