2016 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles NL / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
This set of ZiPS projections for the Nationals represents the 23rd post in this offseason series. A brief examination of the 22 previous installments reveals that no field player has received as robust a forecast yet as Bryce Harper (579 PA, 6.9 zWAR) does here. The other top contenders? Josh Donaldson (6.6 zWAR), Buster Posey (6.3), and Andrew McCutchen (6.0). Conspicuous by his absence from that brief list, of course, is Mike Trout. As for when Szymborski intends to release the Angels’ projections, one can only speculate as to that heartless monster’s plans.

Apart from their outfield wunderkind, the Nationals’ collection of batters is rather ordinary. Third baseman Anthony Rendon (512 PA, 3.3 zWAR) has the benefit both of youth and also a six-win season in his recent past. Otherwise, no starting field player receives a projection that reaches even the two-win threshold, the recently acquired Daniel Murphy (606 PA, 1.9 zWAR) representing the best of the remaining six.

Pitchers
It’s rare that a projection system like the one inside Dan Szymborski’s computer will produce a win figure, on a team level, that would have represented one of the previous season’s top marks. The range of likely median outcomes — which, this is essentially what projections are, a collection of likely median outcomes — tends to be smaller than the range of observed outcomes, owing to the influence of random variation. That said, one finds here that, a season after the rotation produced a collective 18 wins — which represented the second-best mark among all teams — that the Nationals’ top five starters are forecast to produce roughly 18 wins.

Optimism is everywhere: optimism for Stephen Strasburg (169.2 IP, 4.5 zWAR) to produce an ace-like season, for Tanner Roark (141.1 IP, 2.1 zWAR) to more greatly resemble the 2014 edition of himself, and for Joe Ross (135.1 IP, 1.9 zWAR) to build upon his successful rookie season.

With regard to the bullpen, it notably lacks Drew Storen, now a member of the Toronto Blue Jays. While the club might miss Storen in the most high-leverage of situations, the team does seem to possess a rather deep collection of useful relief arms, a collection augmented by the arrivals both of Shawn Kelley (52.0 IP, 0.8 zWAR) and Oliver Perez (46.2 IP, 0.6 zWAR).

Bench/Prospects
While, as noted above, only two starters (Harper and Rendon) are forecast to cross the two-win threshold in 2016, there is a third player who, given sufficient plate appearances, is also a candidate to do that. Trea Turner (483 PA, 2.2 zWAR) doesn’t appear to possess great control of the plate, but has produced markedly above-average BABIP figures throughout the minors, giving him sufficient offensive production, in addition to the shortstop skills, to profile as an average major leaguer right now. Among rookie-eligible players, both Wilmer Difo (482 PA, 1.1 zWAR) and Pedro Severino (375 PA, 1.1 zWAR) also appear sufficiently prepared to help out the parent club in 2016. As for pitchers, the top projections omitted from the depth-chart graphic belong to prospects Austin Voth (133.1 IP, 1.5 zWAR) and Lucas Giolito (119.0 IP, 1.4 zWAR).

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Washingtons, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Nats Depth Chart

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Bryce Harper L 23 RF 579 93 147 27 2 34 79 5 4
Anthony Rendon R 26 3B 512 67 122 27 3 13 52 6 2
Ian Desmond R 30 SS 623 69 145 28 3 21 74 17 5
Trea Turner R 23 SS 483 56 115 19 5 8 47 20 6
Daniel Murphy L 31 2B 606 76 161 36 3 12 74 10 3
Ben Revere L 28 CF 586 75 166 18 6 1 36 34 8
Wilson Ramos R 28 C 392 35 92 13 0 13 57 0 0
Danny Espinosa B 29 2B 435 49 88 20 2 11 37 7 2
Pedro Severino R 22 C 375 37 85 15 1 7 33 2 1
Matt den Dekker L 28 CF 443 53 99 20 5 10 47 10 4
Wilmer Difo B 24 SS 482 49 112 21 4 7 45 22 5
Michael Taylor R 25 CF 533 54 109 20 3 13 58 21 7
Ryan Zimmerman R 31 1B 426 49 98 23 1 15 69 2 0
Spencer Kieboom R 25 C 246 24 55 12 1 3 18 1 1
Stephen Drew L 33 2B 394 36 77 19 3 10 42 1 1
Jose Lobaton B 31 C 209 19 42 8 1 4 23 0 0
Dan Butler R 29 C 327 30 68 18 1 4 28 0 0
Jayson Werth R 37 LF 438 55 93 20 1 13 52 4 1
Jason Martinson R 27 3B 528 52 95 14 4 14 49 11 3
Jhonatan Solano R 30 C 252 24 57 11 1 4 24 0 0
Logan Schafer L 29 CF 384 36 79 18 4 3 30 5 2
Scott Sizemore R 31 3B 299 33 62 13 2 5 29 2 1
Josh Johnson B 30 2B 266 25 55 8 1 2 19 4 3
Chris Bostick R 23 2B 578 59 128 23 5 12 56 20 9
Brian Goodwin L 25 CF 452 46 88 15 5 7 38 11 7
Zack Cox L 27 3B 393 41 89 20 2 5 35 1 0
Tony Gwynn Jr. L 33 LF 315 30 67 10 3 1 21 7 4
Kevin Mattison L 30 CF 201 21 36 8 2 4 11 8 4
Nate McLouth L 34 LF 279 30 57 13 2 5 18 10 2
Matt Skole L 26 3B 430 44 81 17 1 11 54 3 1
Brian Jeroloman L 31 C 198 17 34 5 0 1 11 0 1
Ian Stewart L 31 3B 200 20 33 7 2 6 19 1 0
Steven Lerud L 31 C 206 19 38 7 0 2 14 0 0
Rafael Bautista R 23 CF 420 43 98 12 4 3 29 33 10
Dan Uggla R 36 2B 266 28 45 8 1 7 33 1 1
Mario Lisson R 32 3B 343 32 64 12 0 7 28 5 2
Clint Robinson L 31 1B 416 45 89 18 2 9 40 0 0
Tyler Moore R 29 1B 321 31 68 17 0 11 43 1 1
Cutter Dykstra R 27 2B 450 41 88 15 1 5 33 9 6
Reed Johnson R 39 LF 93 10 21 6 0 2 12 0 0
Marquez Smith R 31 1B 433 46 89 19 2 8 41 2 2
Derrick Robinson B 28 CF 371 33 76 8 2 0 17 15 7
Drew Ward L 21 3B 490 45 95 18 2 9 46 1 2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Bryce Harper 579 16.9% 20.0% .281 .347 .311 .431 .592 .426
Anthony Rendon 512 9.6% 18.4% .159 .311 .270 .344 .429 .339
Ian Desmond 623 6.7% 25.8% .171 .316 .254 .308 .425 .324
Trea Turner 483 6.4% 22.8% .120 .323 .258 .306 .378 .310
Daniel Murphy 606 5.6% 11.2% .138 .304 .285 .325 .423 .323
Ben Revere 586 4.1% 8.9% .060 .329 .301 .331 .361 .318
Wilson Ramos 392 4.8% 17.3% .141 .271 .249 .283 .390 .288
Danny Espinosa 435 6.2% 29.2% .144 .297 .223 .286 .367 .285
Pedro Severino 375 4.5% 19.7% .108 .289 .244 .281 .352 .274
Matt den Dekker 443 7.0% 24.4% .149 .308 .244 .302 .393 .308
Wilmer Difo 482 3.9% 20.7% .110 .299 .246 .281 .356 .289
Michael Taylor 533 7.3% 32.8% .134 .319 .224 .284 .358 .289
Ryan Zimmerman 426 8.7% 20.2% .183 .289 .257 .319 .440 .327
Spencer Kieboom 246 6.9% 19.5% .102 .294 .243 .297 .345 .285
Stephen Drew 394 9.1% 20.3% .156 .253 .219 .291 .375 .288
Jose Lobaton 209 8.6% 24.4% .117 .284 .223 .293 .340 .277
Dan Butler 327 7.3% 22.3% .108 .290 .230 .294 .338 .278
Jayson Werth 438 10.7% 20.3% .160 .282 .244 .331 .404 .324
Jason Martinson 528 7.4% 38.3% .134 .305 .198 .264 .332 .269
Jhonatan Solano 252 4.0% 14.3% .105 .266 .241 .275 .346 .268
Logan Schafer 384 6.5% 17.2% .101 .272 .228 .285 .329 .269
Scott Sizemore 299 8.4% 25.1% .120 .300 .231 .300 .351 .288
Josh Johnson 266 9.4% 16.2% .069 .277 .236 .307 .305 .274
Chris Bostick 578 4.7% 23.4% .129 .295 .238 .283 .367 .296
Brian Goodwin 452 8.6% 28.3% .112 .296 .216 .288 .328 .284
Zack Cox 393 6.1% 25.2% .107 .319 .244 .293 .351 .282
Tony Gwynn Jr. 315 7.6% 14.3% .067 .276 .237 .299 .304 .274
Kevin Mattison 201 6.5% 35.8% .130 .294 .196 .255 .326 .271
Nate McLouth 279 8.2% 17.2% .128 .263 .228 .300 .356 .296
Matt Skole 430 11.2% 30.9% .139 .298 .215 .307 .354 .294
Brian Jeroloman 198 11.1% 25.8% .047 .275 .199 .292 .246 .245
Ian Stewart 200 9.0% 35.5% .163 .265 .185 .270 .348 .271
Steven Lerud 206 8.3% 29.1% .070 .295 .207 .288 .277 .254
Rafael Bautista 420 3.8% 15.7% .074 .291 .249 .286 .323 .291
Dan Uggla 266 11.7% 30.1% .134 .264 .196 .301 .330 .285
Mario Lisson 343 6.7% 28.9% .107 .274 .206 .269 .313 .261
Clint Robinson 416 9.4% 18.8% .132 .279 .239 .315 .371 .300
Tyler Moore 321 7.5% 24.9% .171 .279 .232 .293 .403 .303
Cutter Dykstra 450 8.9% 28.2% .080 .304 .219 .294 .299 .275
Reed Johnson 93 0.0% 20.4% .138 .279 .241 .261 .379 .272
Marquez Smith 433 8.3% 25.2% .121 .295 .229 .300 .350 .289
Derrick Robinson 371 7.0% 21.3% .036 .292 .226 .281 .262 .256
Drew Ward 490 6.5% 34.7% .109 .314 .210 .268 .319 .262

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Bryce Harper 579 9.9 176 1 6.9 Ted Williams
Anthony Rendon 512 5.5 110 4 3.3 Todd Zeile
Ian Desmond 623 4.9 98 -1 3.1 Sea Bass Gonzalez
Trea Turner 483 4.4 85 4 2.2 Vance Law
Daniel Murphy 606 5.3 102 -7 1.9 Todd Walker
Ben Revere 586 5.0 89 -3 1.7 Juan Pierre
Wilson Ramos 392 4.0 82 3 1.6 Scott Servais
Danny Espinosa 435 3.7 77 6 1.2 Jim Chamblee
Pedro Severino 375 3.5 72 3 1.1 Rene Rivera
Matt den Dekker 443 4.3 88 -1 1.1 Keith Hughes
Wilmer Difo 482 3.9 72 2 1.1 Shawon Dunston
Michael Taylor 533 3.7 74 4 0.9 Mario Encarnacion
Ryan Zimmerman 426 5.2 105 0 0.9 Russ Morman
Spencer Kieboom 246 3.6 75 1 0.8 David Duff
Stephen Drew 394 3.7 80 0 0.6 Dick McAuliffe
Jose Lobaton 209 3.5 73 0 0.5 Chad Moeller
Dan Butler 327 3.5 72 -3 0.5 Carl Nichols
Jayson Werth 438 4.8 100 -6 0.5 Tim Salmon
Jason Martinson 528 3.1 62 5 0.4 Kody Kirkland
Jhonatan Solano 252 3.4 68 -1 0.3 Charlie Greene
Logan Schafer 384 3.3 67 3 0.3 Phil Dauphin
Scott Sizemore 299 3.7 77 -2 0.2 Dave Matranga
Josh Johnson 266 3.2 68 2 0.2 Todd Crosby
Chris Bostick 578 3.7 76 -5 0.2 Jose Castillo
Brian Goodwin 452 3.2 68 1 0.2 Mark Budzinski
Zack Cox 393 3.7 75 -2 0.2 Greg David
Tony Gwynn Jr. 315 3.2 65 7 0.2 Ryan Fleming
Kevin Mattison 201 2.8 57 4 0.1 Kevin Koslofski
Nate McLouth 279 4.0 78 0 0.1 Dave May
Matt Skole 430 3.8 80 -7 0.0 Sean Mcnally
Brian Jeroloman 198 2.3 49 1 0.0 Bob Swift
Ian Stewart 200 3.2 67 -1 0.0 Scott Stahoviak
Steven Lerud 206 2.7 55 -1 0.0 Jayhawk Owens
Rafael Bautista 420 3.7 66 -4 -0.2 Leo Sutherland
Dan Uggla 266 3.3 72 -5 -0.3 Craig Counsell
Mario Lisson 343 2.9 58 1 -0.3 Trace Coquillette
Clint Robinson 416 4.2 87 -3 -0.3 Larry Sutton
Tyler Moore 321 4.1 88 -3 -0.3 Jeff Kipila
Cutter Dykstra 450 3.0 63 -2 -0.4 Odie Davis
Reed Johnson 93 3.5 72 -4 -0.5 Brian Jordan
Marquez Smith 433 3.6 77 0 -0.6 Derek Nicholson
Derrick Robinson 371 2.6 50 -1 -0.9 Keith Smith
Drew Ward 490 2.9 59 -5 -1.0 Billy Rowell

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Max Scherzer R 31 32 31 212.3 249 57 15 170 67 63
Stephen Strasburg R 27 29 29 169.7 194 37 16 145 59 55
Gio Gonzalez L 30 28 28 162.7 160 63 11 148 66 62
Doug Fister R 32 24 20 132.3 94 26 13 135 58 54
Tanner Roark R 29 32 20 141.3 96 33 14 140 62 58
Joe Ross R 23 27 25 135.3 112 39 14 131 62 58
A.J. Cole R 24 23 23 133.7 103 35 19 134 64 60
Austin Voth R 24 26 25 133.3 117 47 15 129 64 60
Lucas Giolito R 21 20 20 119.0 108 44 14 114 58 54
Taylor Jordan R 27 18 17 97.0 66 25 8 101 46 43
Jonathan Papelbon R 35 55 0 56.7 49 12 5 51 20 19
Blake Treinen R 28 65 0 76.7 72 29 5 69 30 28
Yusmeiro Petit R 31 34 9 93.3 84 19 13 92 45 42
Shawn Kelley R 32 55 0 52.0 64 18 4 42 18 17
Rafael Martin R 32 42 0 51.7 62 17 5 43 19 18
Aaron Barrett R 28 52 0 43.3 50 13 3 36 15 14
Felipe Rivero L 24 60 0 56.3 50 17 4 49 21 20
Taylor Hill R 27 27 23 138.0 78 30 17 154 75 70
Oliver Perez L 34 62 0 46.7 56 18 4 40 18 17
Mitch Lively R 30 31 12 86.3 68 43 8 84 45 42
Paolo Espino R 29 27 21 129.7 97 34 20 138 73 68
Bruce Billings R 30 24 18 111.3 77 36 13 117 61 57
Craig Stammen R 32 41 0 60.0 51 18 4 58 26 24
Sammy Solis L 27 24 5 44.3 32 14 3 44 20 19
Matt Grace L 27 55 0 67.7 49 23 4 68 30 28
Trevor Gott R 23 68 0 71.3 54 29 5 68 32 30
Matt Thornton L 39 51 0 32.0 22 9 2 30 13 12
Casey Janssen R 34 50 0 44.0 34 9 4 43 19 18
Evan Meek R 33 44 4 67.0 48 30 6 67 34 32
Abel de los Santos R 23 43 0 59.7 53 19 8 58 29 27
Sam Runion R 27 41 0 59.3 46 21 6 59 29 27
Juan Gutierrez R 32 47 0 58.7 44 19 6 59 29 27
Aaron Laffey L 31 26 17 111.7 60 42 12 125 65 61
Stephen Shackleford R 27 51 0 57.7 50 30 5 55 29 27
Matt Spann L 25 23 17 105.3 62 50 11 116 62 58
P.J. Walters R 31 24 17 107.7 74 44 14 116 64 60
Darin Gorski L 28 22 21 109.7 87 47 17 114 66 62
Erik Davis R 29 38 0 46.7 40 24 5 46 25 23
Scott McGregor R 29 25 19 110.7 64 40 16 124 67 63
Boone Whiting R 26 23 18 103.0 73 51 14 110 63 59
Nick Lee L 25 42 0 50.0 50 40 5 45 28 26
Tim Alderson R 27 24 5 60.0 41 21 9 66 36 34
Bryan Harper L 26 39 0 48.7 35 29 6 51 30 28

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Max Scherzer 212.3 864 28.8% 6.6% .288 2.67 2.60 68 67
Stephen Strasburg 169.7 691 28.1% 5.4% .294 2.92 2.84 75 73
Gio Gonzalez 162.7 699 22.9% 9.0% .296 3.43 3.25 88 84
Doug Fister 132.3 558 16.8% 4.7% .292 3.67 3.72 94 96
Tanner Roark 141.3 597 16.1% 5.5% .281 3.69 3.86 94 100
Joe Ross 135.3 576 19.4% 6.8% .289 3.86 3.83 99 99
A.J. Cole 133.7 570 18.1% 6.1% .283 4.04 4.39 103 113
Austin Voth 133.3 576 20.3% 8.2% .292 4.05 4.06 104 105
Lucas Giolito 119.0 515 21.0% 8.5% .291 4.08 4.11 104 106
Taylor Jordan 97.0 417 15.8% 6.0% .297 3.99 3.77 102 97
Jonathan Papelbon 56.7 233 21.0% 5.1% .282 3.02 3.37 77 87
Blake Treinen 76.7 328 21.9% 8.8% .291 3.29 3.15 84 81
Yusmeiro Petit 93.3 391 21.5% 4.9% .289 4.05 3.78 104 98
Shawn Kelley 52.0 216 29.6% 8.3% .292 2.94 2.57 75 66
Rafael Martin 51.7 215 28.8% 7.9% .297 3.14 3.12 80 81
Aaron Barrett 43.3 179 27.9% 7.3% .298 2.91 2.72 74 70
Felipe Rivero 56.3 235 21.3% 7.2% .276 3.20 3.16 82 82
Taylor Hill 138.0 598 13.0% 5.0% .295 4.57 4.44 117 115
Oliver Perez 46.7 198 28.3% 9.1% .310 3.28 3.16 84 82
Mitch Lively 86.3 386 17.6% 11.1% .290 4.38 4.43 112 114
Paolo Espino 129.7 561 17.3% 6.1% .293 4.72 4.62 121 119
Bruce Billings 111.3 487 15.8% 7.4% .293 4.61 4.43 118 114
Craig Stammen 60.0 256 19.9% 7.0% .298 3.60 3.18 92 82
Sammy Solis 44.3 191 16.8% 7.3% .293 3.86 3.61 99 93
Matt Grace 67.7 294 16.7% 7.8% .299 3.72 3.59 95 93
Trevor Gott 71.3 311 17.4% 9.3% .288 3.79 3.82 97 99
Matt Thornton 32.0 135 16.3% 6.7% .280 3.37 3.44 86 89
Casey Janssen 44.0 184 18.5% 4.9% .287 3.68 3.34 94 86
Evan Meek 67.0 298 16.1% 10.1% .290 4.30 4.33 110 112
Abel de los Santos 59.7 256 20.7% 7.4% .291 4.07 4.18 104 108
Sam Runion 59.3 258 17.8% 8.1% .293 4.10 4.09 105 106
Juan Gutierrez 58.7 254 17.3% 7.5% .289 4.14 4.01 106 104
Aaron Laffey 111.7 502 11.9% 8.4% .297 4.92 4.75 126 123
Stephen Shackleford 57.7 258 19.4% 11.6% .294 4.21 4.22 108 109
Matt Spann 105.3 482 12.9% 10.4% .298 4.96 4.94 127 128
P.J. Walters 107.7 483 15.3% 9.1% .295 5.02 4.82 128 124
Darin Gorski 109.7 490 17.8% 9.6% .291 5.09 5.04 130 130
Erik Davis 46.7 210 19.0% 11.4% .297 4.44 4.45 114 115
Scott McGregor 110.7 496 12.9% 8.1% .292 5.12 5.10 131 132
Boone Whiting 103.0 470 15.5% 10.9% .294 5.16 5.14 132 133
Nick Lee 50.0 235 21.3% 17.0% .292 4.68 4.98 120 129
Tim Alderson 60.0 267 15.4% 7.9% .297 5.10 4.90 130 126
Bryan Harper 48.7 226 15.5% 12.8% .294 5.18 5.30 132 137

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Max Scherzer 212.3 10.56 2.42 0.64 145 6.2 Tom Seaver
Stephen Strasburg 169.7 10.29 1.96 0.85 133 4.5 Javier Vazquez
Gio Gonzalez 162.7 8.85 3.48 0.61 113 3.2 Shawn Estes
Doug Fister 132.3 6.39 1.77 0.88 105 2.2 Bill Wegman
Tanner Roark 141.3 6.11 2.10 0.89 105 2.1 Jeff Heathcock
Joe Ross 135.3 7.45 2.59 0.93 100 1.9 Wade Miller
A.J. Cole 133.7 6.93 2.36 1.28 96 1.6 Brian Rose
Austin Voth 133.3 7.90 3.17 1.01 96 1.5 Jason Bell
Lucas Giolito 119.0 8.17 3.33 1.06 95 1.4 Rafael Soriano
Taylor Jordan 97.0 6.12 2.32 0.74 97 1.3 Ron Reed
Jonathan Papelbon 56.7 7.78 1.90 0.79 128 0.9 Jeff Shaw
Blake Treinen 76.7 8.45 3.40 0.59 118 0.9 Ruddy Lugo
Yusmeiro Petit 93.3 8.10 1.83 1.25 96 0.9 Milt Hill
Shawn Kelley 52.0 11.08 3.12 0.69 131 0.8 Rich Croushore
Rafael Martin 51.7 10.79 2.96 0.87 123 0.7 Rich DeLucia
Aaron Barrett 43.3 10.39 2.70 0.62 133 0.7 Rich Garces
Felipe Rivero 56.3 7.99 2.72 0.64 121 0.6 Steve Howe
Taylor Hill 138.0 5.09 1.96 1.11 85 0.6 Ryan Cox
Oliver Perez 46.7 10.79 3.47 0.77 118 0.6 Tim Byrdak
Mitch Lively 86.3 7.09 4.48 0.83 88 0.5 Jarod Juelsgaard
Paolo Espino 129.7 6.73 2.36 1.39 82 0.4 Steve Ellsworth
Bruce Billings 111.3 6.23 2.91 1.05 84 0.4 Jason Roach
Craig Stammen 60.0 7.65 2.70 0.60 107 0.4 Mike Koplove
Sammy Solis 44.3 6.50 2.84 0.61 100 0.4 Jim Roland
Matt Grace 67.7 6.51 3.06 0.53 104 0.4 Jim Roland
Trevor Gott 71.3 6.82 3.66 0.63 102 0.4 Julio DePaula
Matt Thornton 32.0 6.19 2.53 0.56 115 0.3 Hank Aguirre
Casey Janssen 44.0 6.95 1.84 0.82 105 0.3 Jose Bautista
Evan Meek 67.0 6.45 4.03 0.81 90 0.1 Hal Elliott
Abel de los Santos 59.7 7.99 2.86 1.21 95 0.1 Julio Mateo
Sam Runion 59.3 6.98 3.19 0.91 94 0.0 Cary Hiles
Juan Gutierrez 58.7 6.75 2.91 0.92 93 0.0 Bob Scanlan
Aaron Laffey 111.7 4.83 3.38 0.97 79 0.0 Chris Peters
Stephen Shackleford 57.7 7.80 4.68 0.78 92 0.0 Edwardo Sierra
Matt Spann 105.3 5.30 4.27 0.94 78 -0.1 Matt Coenen
P.J. Walters 107.7 6.18 3.68 1.17 77 -0.2 Ryan Jensen
Darin Gorski 109.7 7.14 3.86 1.39 76 -0.2 Corey Lee
Erik Davis 46.7 7.71 4.63 0.96 87 -0.2 James Warden
Scott McGregor 110.7 5.20 3.25 1.30 75 -0.3 Mike Heathcott
Boone Whiting 103.0 6.38 4.46 1.22 75 -0.3 Nick Skuse
Nick Lee 50.0 9.00 7.20 0.90 83 -0.3 Jonathan Price
Tim Alderson 60.0 6.15 3.15 1.35 76 -0.4 Ivan Maldonado
Bryan Harper 48.7 6.47 5.36 1.11 75 -0.6 Carl Keliipuleole

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
rpmcsweeney
Member
rpmcsweeney
3 months 28 days ago

That’s, uh…that’s a good comp for Harper.

The Ghost of Johnny Dickshot
Member
The Ghost of Johnny Dickshot
3 months 28 days ago

Scherzer’s isn’t so bad either.

Ivdown
Member
Ivdown
3 months 28 days ago

I don’t know if they have done the Angels yet, but I’m just waiting for a Mantle comp for Trout.

Phillies113
Member
Member
3 months 28 days ago

Bryce Harper comps to Ted Williams, sure. But exactly how good WAS Ted Williams, really?

(checks stats)

Oh

atjlennon
Member
atjlennon
3 months 20 days ago

Forgive the novice question…but are the comps for the player at the same age (23 for Harper)? Was trying to find the list for top comps to see if it specified a year somewhere (and if the list went deeper than top comp) but couldn’t find it.

Am I missing it somewhere?

Thanks, all

Wes
Member
Member
Wes
3 months 18 days ago

Yes. The comps are made by age. So 23 year old Bryce Harper is compared to 23 year old Ted Williams.

I could also be 100% wrong, but the age comp is my understanding.

Cory Settoon
Member
3 months 28 days ago

Harper gets a Ted Williams comp and is on Zito’s All Dreamy Team?

That’s a big week.

SandyK
Member
SandyK
3 months 28 days ago

Does any other team in baseball have two players whose top comps are HoFers?

Pale Hose
Member
Pale Hose
3 months 28 days ago

The Dodgers do. I imagine the Angels will too.

SandyK
Member
SandyK
3 months 28 days ago

Trout and who else?

Cory Settoon
Member
3 months 28 days ago

I’m guessing Pujols.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
3 months 28 days ago

Comps I think are limited to on the projection the player receives, so Pujols is not likely to comp to a hall of famer at this point, even though he is one.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
3 months 28 days ago

If Trevor Hoffman had been elected this year, they would have had three (Kenley Jansen)

macman_65
Member
macman_65
3 months 28 days ago

Dodgers already have 3 if you count the comp for Joel Peralta (Eckersley).

Granted Peralta is not on the team – but then they get 3 via “electricity” the comp for Pedro Baez is Joel Peralta.

tkp444
Member
tkp444
3 months 28 days ago

The Mets have 2: Wilmer Flores (Bill Mazeroski) and Bartolo Colon(Jim Bunning). Matt Harvey is “on the ballot” with Curt Schilling.

carpaia
Member
carpaia
3 months 28 days ago

It’s fine to be
Comped to Ted Williams, but Desmond has got to be thrilled with his Sea Bass Gonzalez comp. That’s got a great value come free agency negotiations

Jason B
Member
Jason B
3 months 27 days ago

I dunno what you’re carping about, he’s no Catfish Hunter.

Damaso
Member
Damaso
3 months 28 days ago

dang.

was hoping Storen would still be included here, as he wasn’t in the Jays’ zips.

What is the Storen projection, I wonder?

The Ghost of Stephen Drews Bat
Member
The Ghost of Stephen Drews Bat
3 months 28 days ago

/looking through pitchers
/”Bryce Harper?”
/double-take
/”Oh, Bryan Harper…much better”

TKDC
Member
Member
TKDC
3 months 28 days ago

Dan Uggla’s comp proves that ZIPS does not take forearm size into consideration whatsoever.

Shauncore
Member
Shauncore
3 months 28 days ago

Ted Williams age 23 season (Harper’s 2016 age):

.356/.499/.648 206 wRC+ 11.6 WAR

What ended up being the 2nd year of 3 straight 11+ win seasons and 4 straight 10+ win seasons.

Although it should be mentioned…after 23, Williams went off to fight in the war and that 3rd 11+ win season came at age 27.

Can’t imagine Bryce would go enlist next winter.

Twin Billing
Member
Twin Billing
3 months 28 days ago

Well, he didn’t exactly fight in WWII, though he did run missions in Korea. He also enlisted after intense media and fan scrutiny over his 1A deferment designation (he was his mother’s source of income). Then again, I wouldn’t exactly compare WWII to the cluster we have today.

Anyway, history lessons/opinions aside, back to your regularly scheduled baseball talk.

That due is quite a comp

yougottalovethepain
Member
yougottalovethepain
3 months 28 days ago

It will be interesting to the see the numbers Harper puts up this year. Will he become “Trout-like” and dominate the NL for the next 3-5 years? He’s shown the ability is there.

Noah Baron
Member
Noah Baron
3 months 28 days ago

I hope FanGraphs learned their lesson and doesn’t pick the Nats to win the division again. ZiPS seems much more rational than Steamer but still a bit high on guys like Roark and Gio.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
3 months 28 days ago

What lesson would that be?

Jeff Sullivan
Editor
Member
3 months 28 days ago

Because we should’ve seen last year coming after the Nationals won 96 games in 2014?

wily mo
Member
3 months 28 days ago

that’s a startlingly bad projection for clint robinson considering what he did last year. i get that he’s old, but below uggla? ouch

screamin_jay
Member
screamin_jay
3 months 28 days ago

nats fans back in total cocky asshole mode

but feel bad for them everybody. so long suffering and they seem like such witty, good guys. they deserve all the ridiculous success of their team on and off the field.

hscer
Member
3 months 28 days ago
Atari
Member
Atari
3 months 28 days ago

So when is Casey Jannsen batting cleanup?

tyke
Member
Member
tyke
3 months 28 days ago

SEA BASS GONZALEZ!!!!!!!!!

Ivan_Grushenko
Member
Ivan_Grushenko
3 months 28 days ago

So Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth are now kinda sucky? That’s not good.

Jason B
Member
Jason B
3 months 27 days ago

This…this can’t be a surprise can it?

gelezinis vilkas
Member
gelezinis vilkas
3 months 28 days ago

I’m more than a little confused by the Giolito comp with Rafael Soriano.
Giolito is projected to be a starter given the number of innings pitched (119). Giolito is projected to have a K/9 of over 8, while the only year that Soriano (not including a couple of starts with a Yankees A+ team) that Soriano was a starter was his first year with the Mariners when he pitched 47 innings and had a K/9 rate of a little over 6.
The only comp I can see is the walk rate.
What am I missing?

philosofool
Member
Member
philosofool
3 months 26 days ago

I think you need to double check you source of Soriano stats. Except his rookie year, I count like 10 consecutive seasons of 8+ K/9.

Paul22
Member
Paul22
3 months 28 days ago

Way too optimistic on Strasburg IMO.

I bet the Yankees would go for a Didi, Bird, Judge, and Gardner (throwing in some money) for Harper swap. Nats would be a better team for it

Curious Gorge
Member
Curious Gorge
3 months 27 days ago

lol

Jamson1999
Member
Jamson1999
3 months 21 days ago

Please explain how ZiPS accounts for players returning from injuries that negatively affected their 2015 numbers. Zimmerman, Werth and Rendon each had their 2015 seasons blown-out by injury.

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