2017 Top AL Contact Survivors

Last week, we took a look at the hitters who have been the most productive on balls in play in both leagues, and peeled back a layer or two of batted-ball data to see how much of it was real. This week and next, we’re going to do the same with pitchers. Today, the AL.

To determine the AL’s top-10 contact survivors, we simply remove the Ks and BBs from the records of ERA-qualifying starters, and compare their production allowed on balls in play (BIP) to a league average of 100. Those who have read my articles on this topic in the past might recognize that as a pitcher’s “Unadjusted Contact Score”. We’re not saying these players have been the best contact managers (Adjusted Contact Score does that); but they’ve allowed the least in-game damage on contact. In the two tables below, contact authority and frequency data is provided for the AL leaders in Unadjusted Contact Score. All stats are through last Saturday:

The first of the tables above includes each pitcher’s aforementioned Unadjusted Contact Score, along with their Unadjusted and Adjusted Contact Scores for each BIP category, their overall Adjusted Contact Score, actual ERA-, FIP- and “tru” ERA-. “Tru” ERA adds back the Ks and BBs, and incorporates the Adjusted Contact Score data to give a better measure of each pitcher’s true performance level.

The bottom table lists their K and BB rates, as well as the breakdown of all of their BIP by category type. For this table, color-coding is used to note significant divergence from league average. Red cells indicate values that are over two full standard deviations above league average. Orange cells are over one STD above, yellow cells over one-half-STD above, blue cells over one-half STD below, and black cells over one STD below league average. Ran out of colors at that point. Variation of over two full STD below league average will be addressed as necessary in the text below.

A couple of comments about this group as a whole. Liner rates allowed are by far the most volatile of any BIP type. None of the pitchers listed have allowed a materially higher than average liner rate to this still early stage in the season, and six of the 10 have allowed a materially lower-than-average liner rate. Ervin Santana’s is over two full standard deviations lower than the AL average. These liner rates can be expected to regress upward as the season progresses, knocking some of these guys off of this list.

Eight of the 10 pitchers on this list have a go-to BIP tendency that is key to their inclusion. Santana, Ariel Miranda, and Jason Vargas are big pop-up generators, with a pop-up rate over one full STD higher than the AL average. Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers,(over two STD above average) Andrew Cashner, Michael Fulmer and Luis Severino (one STD above) have material grounder tendencies.

What is real, and what isn’t, with regard to these year-to-date performances? Let’s take a pitcher-by-pitcher look.

Ervin Santana, Twins
Both of the following statements can be true: Ervin Santana (a) has been extremely lucky to date and (b) has clearly been an above-average starter. His Unadjusted Contact Score is an insane 39; that is really difficult to do, even over a two-month stretch. His Adjusted Contact Score is a much higher but realistic 73; he has been very fortunate on all BIP types (57 Unadjusted vs. 88 Adjusted Fly Ball, 50 vs. 95 Liner, 35 vs. 93 Grounder Contact Scores). All of that said, his Adjusted Contact Scores are better than average across all BIP types, nothing to sneeze at.

His pop-up rate is way up from last season, a very positive sign. Still, that liner rate is going to regress upward, perhaps by a lot, and his K and BB rates are both trending in the wrong direction. When all is said and done, I wouldn’t bet on him being a materially better-than-average AL starter qualitatively. So far, his ERA- and FIP- are about equally out of whack, in opposite directions. He’s a 80 “tru” ERA- guy for now.

Dallas Keuchel, Astros
The 2015 version of Keuchel appears to be back. His K rate has bounced upward — and, more importantly, his grounder rate has shot back into the stratosphere. Sure, the liner rate is artificially low and bound to regress upward, but a healthy Keuchel can again be a Cy Young contender.

His average launch angle thus far is an incredible -2.4 degrees; yup, it’s below zero. Not only does he induce a ton of grounders, he induces a ton of weakly hit ones. His Adjusted Grounder Contact Score of 78 is tied for second best among this group. He’s been lucky both on grounders (49 Unadjusted Contact Score) and liners (59 Unadjusted vs. 91 Adjusted Contact Score), but his overall Adjusted Contact Score of 74, while well above his unadjusted mark of 53, is about as strong as Santana’s and sits on a better foundation moving forward.

His “tru” ERA of 64 is second best among this group, closer to his 71 FIP- than his 40 ERA-.

Andrew Cashner, Rangers
Well, when you’ve walked more batters than you’ve struck out, you had better be managing contact extremely well to even have a chance for survival. Let’s say Cashner had an average-range Adjusted Contact Score of 100; his poor K/BB ratio would push his “tru” ERA- into the 125-130 range at the very least, likely putting him out of the rotation or even the big leagues.

His biggest asset has been has his strong grounder tendency, though he has allowed exactly league-average authority (100 Adjusted Contact Score) on those grounders. Another plus has been his ability to thwart fly-ball authority (50 Adjusted Contact Score) on those rare occasions hitters have been able to elevate the baseball. Unlike Santana and Keuchel, Cashner hasn’t allowed a fluky low liner rate.

Cashner has absolutely zero margin for error, and I have a feeling this won’t end well. He’s sitting with merely a 96 “tru” ERA- despite an exceptional contact-management performance. I’d expect to see him on the other side of 100 before long.

Angel Miranda, Mariners
A lot going on here. Miranda is the premier pop-up generator among the above group. He’s also the premier fly-ball generator, which carries risk, even when you play your home games at Safeco Field. He has muffled the authority of those flies (63 Adjusted Contact Score), keying his success. Like Santana and Keuchel, he’s running an unnaturally low liner rate, begging for upward regression.

Miranda has been extremely unlucky on the relatively few grounders he has allowed; hitters are batting .289 AVG-.342 SLG (182 Unadjusted Contact Score) though his exit-speed and launch-angle data supports a much lower 113 mark.

He is one of only two pitchers above whose “tru” ERA- (81) to date is better than both his ERA- (90) and FIP- (108). If he can sustain his fly-ball-authority-muting ways, he could travel a Marco Estrada-like path to ongoing success.

Michael Fulmer, Tigers
When I see a Tiger starter like Fulmer sitting near the top of an Unadjusted Contact Score leader board, I first think of the spacious outfield at Comerica Park. While his Unadjusted Fly Ball Contact Score of 34 is crazy low and impacted quite a bit by his park, his adjusted mark of 65 indicates there is real ability there.

Fulmer’s other key contact-management asset is his solid grounder tendency. He manages authority of all BIP types reasonably well, with Adjusted Liner and Grounder Contact Scores of 97 and 89, respectively. His overall Adjusted Contact Score of 86 is strong and has been compiled despite the highest liner-rate allowed of the pitchers listed above. Many of these pitchers might regress right off of this list by season’s end; I’d bet on Fulmer sticking around.

Jason Vargas, Royals
Our last of three big pop-up guys. When healthy, Vargas had similar success in Seattle, in another big ballpark with another (at the time) strong defensive outfield. He has improved tremendously in one area since then: his management of authority in the air. He used Safeco Field’s outfield expanse to his benefit but hasn’t really needed to do so as much in KC. His 65 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score shows that Vargas is holding up his end of the bargain.

Some fortunate sequencing has held his ERA- down to an unrealistic 50; his 80 Adjusted Contact Score is strong in this company, and his “tru” ERA- (76) is right in line with his FIP- (78).

Carlos Carrasco, Indians
Three of our last four hurlers have been quite fortunate on balls in play to date, posting Adjusted Contact Scores in the league-average range. Of course, those three are the very best K/BB guys of the group. Carrasco has been very lucky on fly balls thus far (68 Unadjusted vs. 133 Adjusted Contact Score). He is one of only two pitchers on this list with an average fly-ball velocity allowed of over 90 mph, at 90.5.

He’s also one of two pitchers on this list to lack a material pop-up or grounder tendency. Carrasco’s best contact-management trait is his ability to mute authority on the ground: his average grounder velocity allowed of 80.1 mph is best among this group, as is his Adjusted Grounder Contact Score of 68.

While his overall Adjusted Contact Score of 104 ranks next to last on this list, it’s good enough when combined his very strong K and BB rates to place him squarely among the better pitchers in the AL. His 85 “tru” ERA- is bunched tightly with his ERA- and FIP-, and is built on a very solid foundation.

Lance McCullers, Astros
If the season ended today, this guy would be your AL Contact Manager of the Year. Remember, these are the top-10 Unadjusted Contact Scores in the league. McCullers is the only one of the 10 whose Adjusted Contact Score is better than the unadjusted version. He’s been incredibly unlucky on fly balls (147 Unadjusted vs. 72 Adjusted Contact Score), but made the list anyway. His average fly-ball-authority allowed of 86.1 mph is best among this group, but he’s allowed the most in-game damage in the air. Lots of cheap homers down both lines are available in Houston.

McCullers’ greatest strength, along with his K/BB excellence, is his go-to grounder tendency. His average launch-angle allowed of (1.0) degrees is almost as good as Keuchel’s. So, let’s see… whiff a bunch of guys, greatly improve your walk rate, allow few fly balls but manage authority of the ones you do: there aren’t any weaknesses here. A healthy McCullers is a superstar. Lastly, he’s the other pitcher whose “tru” ERA- (60) is better than both his ERA- (62) and FIP- (67).

Jordan Montgomery, Yankees
Let’s finish things off with a pair of Yankees, neither of whom is 2016 AL Contact Manager of the Year CC Sabathia (who, incidentally, finished 11th on this list). There is really nothing outstanding about Montgomery’s contact-management ability; he’s on this list because of an unsustainably low liner rate allowed, plus good fortune on fly balls (52 Unadjusted vs. 98 Adjusted Contact Score).

He has shown a slight fly-ball tendency thus far, but without the pop ups that would earn him a more secure spot on this list. One interesting positive has been his ability to muffle liner contact (average velocity of 89.3 mph, second lowest on this list, fractionally behind Keuchel).

All of this said, there is nothing wrong with a rookie pitcher lacking an obvious weakness. K and BB rates in the better end of the average range, plus a 99 Adjusted Contact Score, gives you a 90 “tru” ERA-, lagging behind his ERA- (83) and FIP- (79), but still in a good place.

Luis Severino, Yankees
Montgomery is solid, but this guy’s a potential star. Obviously, his stellar K/BB rates are the core drivers of his excellence. All he needs to be is an average contact manager to be really, really good; anything better makes him a Cy Young candidate. His strong grounder tendency will serve him well in his quest.

All of this said, he’s been pretty lucky on balls in play to date, as his overall 83 Unadjusted Contact Score is well below his adjusted mark of 110. He’s been fortunate on both flies (79 Unadjusted vs. 140 Adjusted) and grounders (78 vs. 110). His average fly-ball velocity of 91.1 mph is highest among this group, and that will get you sooner or later in Yankee Stadium.

While his “tru” ERA- (82) isn’t as good as his current ERA- (65) or FIP- (72), it’s a pretty good starting point as Severino stakes out his personal developmental curve.