2017 ZiPS Projections – Atlanta Braves

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Chicago NL / Detroit / Houston / San Diego / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
If one were to calculate the compensation practices of Major League Baseball merely by examining Atlanta’s roster, he or she might arrive at the conclusion that players are rewarded for producing as few wins as possible. Consider: at $21.8 million, Matt Kemp (601 PA, 0.6 zWAR) possesses the club’s highest salary, but is also projected to record the lowest WAR among Atlanta’s starting field players. Ender Inciarte (596, 3.4) and Dansby Swanson (580, 3.3), meanwhile, are likely to receive just over $3.0 million together — and yet Dan Szymborski’s computer suggests that they represent two-thirds of the team’s above-average field players.

With regard to Inciarte and Swanson, one finds that the ZiPS projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks appeared in these pages at the beginning of the month, providing an opportunity to re-visit the trade that sent those two players — plus Aaron Blair (139.1 IP, 0.5 zWAR) — to Atlanta in exchange for Shelby Miller.

Pitchers
Atlanta’s rotation was one of the weakest in all of baseball this past season, recording the second-lowest collective WAR among all starting units. Through a series of modest deals, the club has addressed that situation without sacrificing much in the way of resources. Neither Bartolo Colon (156.1 IP, 1.6 zWAR) nor R.A. Dickey (154.0, 1.1) nor Jaime Garcia (127.1, 1.6) seem likely to facilitate even a winning season; that said, they immediately become the three of the club’s five best starters while requiring little in the way of long-term commitments.

As for the bullpen, it likely isn’t a priority for the team at the moment — and, given the ZiPS figures published here, might look quite different even by midseason. Consider: A.J. Minter (33.2 IP, 84 ERA-), Daniel Winkler (18.0, 85) and the newly acquired Luke Jackson (62.1, 87) receive the top three ERA forecasts here. They pitched fewer than 15 major-league innings collectively in 2016.

Bench/Prospects
Infielder Ozzie Albies (568 PA, 1.8 zWAR) is one of the top prospects in all of baseball, having reach Triple-A last year in just his age-19 season. While his numbers for Gwinnett weren’t excellent, Albies’ mere presence on that roster speaks both to his present and future ability. ZiPS calls for league-average production from him already, rendering him one of Atlanta’s top present-value players, as well. Otherwise, both Rio Ruiz (534, 1.2) and Mallex Smith (439, 1.2) debuted last season, the latter somewhat more extensively than the former. They both currently profile as strong bench pieces on an average club.

As for pitchers, the organization possesses prospects who are ready to compete against major leaguers. Left-hander Sean Newcomb (124.0 IP, 0.7 zWAR), received from the Angels in exchange for Andrelton Simmons, continues to record both high strikeout but also high walk rates. Josh Collmenter (100.2, 1.0), who is not a prospect, remains an intriguing piece after having produced three excellent starts following his arrival in Atlanta.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Atlantas, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

atlanta-depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Freddie Freeman L 27 1B 639 94 153 34 3 26 86 4 2
Ender Inciarte L 26 CF 596 80 157 25 6 6 37 21 7
Dansby Swanson R 23 SS 580 71 132 28 7 12 64 7 2
Ozzie Albies B 20 2B 568 64 128 26 7 7 50 21 9
Tyler Flowers R 31 C 356 29 78 15 0 10 40 0 1
Mallex Smith L 24 CF 439 56 95 15 6 4 39 35 13
Rio Ruiz L 23 3B 534 59 114 22 4 12 56 2 4
Nick Markakis L 33 RF 641 69 155 30 1 9 60 1 2
Jace Peterson L 27 2B 514 57 108 20 5 6 43 11 8
Adonis Garcia R 32 3B 496 57 124 25 1 12 53 4 2
Sean Rodriguez R 32 SS 278 35 60 13 2 10 35 2 1
Tuffy Gosewisch R 33 C 223 19 48 9 1 5 20 1 0
Dustin Peterson R 22 LF 575 66 130 27 2 15 67 4 2
Matt Kemp R 32 RF 601 77 145 33 2 22 89 6 2
Anthony Recker R 33 C 239 25 44 9 0 8 28 1 0
David Freitas R 28 C 310 31 69 16 1 6 27 1 0
Connor Lien R 23 CF 392 45 77 12 5 11 36 15 9
Travis Demeritte R 22 2B 442 44 83 16 5 12 35 10 4
Matt Lipka R 25 CF 396 37 80 15 4 3 28 12 5
Chase d’Arnaud R 30 SS 411 42 88 16 5 4 31 17 7
Keith Curcio L 24 CF 557 57 119 21 7 4 44 16 8
Kyle Kubitza L 26 LF 497 54 93 22 5 8 40 9 4
Johan Camargo B 23 2B 501 48 109 22 6 5 42 2 2
Mel Rojas Jr. B 27 RF 442 45 89 18 5 9 41 8 4
A.J. Pierzynski L 40 C 300 23 72 16 0 4 31 1 1
George Kottaras L 34 C 133 15 21 2 0 5 12 0 0
Matt Tuiasosopo R 31 1B 330 41 61 13 0 13 37 1 0
Emilio Bonifacio B 32 CF 197 22 44 6 1 1 16 9 4
Ronnier Mustelier R 32 LF 403 40 94 19 2 7 37 5 2
Tyler Moore R 30 1B 242 24 49 11 0 8 29 0 0
Sean Kazmar R 32 1B 335 34 77 17 2 4 30 2 3
Jordan Pacheco R 31 3B 175 13 35 9 1 1 8 1 0
Colin Walsh B 27 LF 308 30 52 10 1 5 26 4 2
Balbino Fuenmayor R 27 1B 325 31 77 16 1 8 32 0 0
Blake Lalli L 34 1B 316 25 65 14 0 2 22 0 1
Joey Meneses R 25 1B 445 42 96 18 3 6 38 1 2
Braxton Davidson L 21 RF 515 54 78 17 1 15 48 2 6

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Freddie Freeman 639 12.8% 23.2% .217 .340 .281 .382 .498 .370
Ender Inciarte 596 6.4% 12.2% .101 .320 .286 .334 .387 .322
Dansby Swanson 580 8.8% 21.2% .150 .308 .253 .323 .403 .313
Ozzie Albies 568 7.0% 21.0% .118 .306 .247 .304 .365 .303
Tyler Flowers 356 6.7% 30.1% .140 .330 .243 .310 .383 .302
Mallex Smith 439 8.2% 23.0% .099 .314 .242 .309 .341 .312
Rio Ruiz 534 9.2% 26.0% .138 .308 .238 .310 .376 .301
Nick Markakis 641 9.7% 13.1% .103 .303 .272 .345 .375 .312
Jace Peterson 514 10.5% 19.3% .107 .293 .240 .322 .347 .301
Adonis Garcia 496 3.6% 16.1% .134 .294 .263 .296 .397 .300
Sean Rodriguez 278 6.8% 29.5% .189 .314 .241 .305 .430 .313
Tuffy Gosewisch 223 4.9% 18.4% .125 .264 .231 .275 .356 .274
Dustin Peterson 575 6.3% 23.5% .143 .298 .244 .294 .387 .296
Matt Kemp 601 6.5% 23.3% .187 .309 .263 .309 .450 .323
Anthony Recker 239 10.0% 31.4% .157 .283 .211 .300 .368 .290
David Freitas 310 6.1% 21.3% .126 .292 .241 .291 .367 .286
Connor Lien 392 5.9% 37.2% .154 .328 .216 .276 .370 .295
Travis Demeritte 442 8.6% 41.6% .155 .346 .208 .279 .363 .286
Matt Lipka 396 4.5% 25.8% .087 .291 .217 .262 .304 .259
Chase d’Arnaud 411 5.4% 19.5% .100 .281 .231 .280 .331 .281
Keith Curcio 557 6.6% 18.3% .092 .283 .235 .291 .327 .280
Kyle Kubitza 497 10.7% 32.8% .128 .316 .213 .300 .341 .286
Johan Camargo 501 4.6% 19.6% .107 .291 .238 .276 .345 .264
Mel Rojas Jr. 442 7.7% 27.8% .137 .294 .222 .282 .359 .282
A.J. Pierzynski 300 3.3% 11.0% .099 .273 .254 .287 .353 .278
George Kottaras 133 13.5% 39.1% .149 .281 .184 .295 .333 .275
Matt Tuiasosopo 330 11.2% 34.5% .180 .294 .212 .306 .392 .304
Emilio Bonifacio 197 6.1% 22.3% .060 .314 .242 .289 .302 .276
Ronnier Mustelier 403 5.7% 14.6% .117 .280 .250 .296 .367 .291
Tyler Moore 242 7.0% 28.5% .158 .281 .222 .278 .380 .281
Sean Kazmar 335 3.9% 16.1% .104 .280 .244 .275 .348 .274
Jordan Pacheco 175 6.3% 19.4% .087 .268 .219 .274 .306 .258
Colin Walsh 308 13.3% 30.8% .102 .287 .198 .309 .300 .280
Balbino Fuenmayor 325 3.1% 25.2% .135 .309 .248 .274 .383 .280
Blake Lalli 316 5.4% 20.6% .068 .276 .222 .268 .290 .243
Joey Meneses 445 5.4% 24.5% .101 .297 .231 .275 .332 .264
Braxton Davidson 515 11.1% 46.6% .143 .321 .174 .274 .317 .267

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Freddie Freeman 639 7.2 139 2 4.5 Keith Hernandez
Ender Inciarte 596 5.0 98 8 3.4 Mel Almada
Dansby Swanson 580 4.8 98 4 3.3 Jay Bell
Ozzie Albies 568 4.1 83 5 1.8 Orlando Hudson
Tyler Flowers 356 4.2 89 -4 1.3 Damian Miller
Mallex Smith 439 4.0 78 3 1.2 Milt Cuyler
Rio Ruiz 534 4.0 87 -2 1.2 Pedro Castellano
Nick Markakis 641 4.7 98 -2 1.2 Mule Haas
Jace Peterson 514 3.9 84 -2 1.0 Rance Mulliniks
Adonis Garcia 496 4.3 88 -4 0.9 Mike Cervenak
Sean Rodriguez 278 4.7 99 -5 0.9 Mike Blowers
Tuffy Gosewisch 223 3.5 72 2 0.8 Joe Oliver
Dustin Peterson 575 4.1 85 3 0.7 Juan Tejeda
Matt Kemp 601 5.1 105 -12 0.6 Hubie Brooks
Anthony Recker 239 3.8 82 -6 0.4 Steve Yeager
David Freitas 310 3.8 79 -7 0.4 John Purdom
Connor Lien 392 3.4 75 0 0.4 Braulio Castillo
Travis Demeritte 442 3.5 75 -2 0.3 Justin Turner
Matt Lipka 396 2.8 55 8 0.2 Dan Odgers
Chase d’Arnaud 411 3.3 67 -3 0.2 Derek Wathan
Keith Curcio 557 3.4 70 1 0.2 Vic Buttler
Kyle Kubitza 497 3.5 76 4 0.2 Chris Knabenshue
Johan Camargo 501 3.3 69 0 0.1 Gary Miller-Jones
Mel Rojas Jr. 442 3.5 75 4 0.1 Larry Barnes
A.J. Pierzynski 300 3.6 75 -7 0.0 Sandy Alomar
George Kottaras 133 3.3 72 -5 -0.1 Jerry Goff
Matt Tuiasosopo 330 4.2 90 -4 -0.2 Chris Cron
Emilio Bonifacio 197 3.2 63 -3 -0.5 Tony Scott
Ronnier Mustelier 403 3.9 81 -5 -0.5 Chan Perry
Tyler Moore 242 3.7 78 -2 -0.5 Darrell Whitmore
Sean Kazmar 335 3.3 70 3 -0.6 Francisco Santos
Jordan Pacheco 175 3.0 59 -5 -0.6 Jason Wood
Colin Walsh 308 3.1 69 -4 -0.8 Mike Richardson
Balbino Fuenmayor 325 3.8 78 -3 -0.8 Dan Dimascio
Blake Lalli 316 2.6 53 2 -1.3 Frank Charles
Joey Meneses 445 3.1 66 0 -1.4 Greg Porter
Braxton Davidson 515 2.6 62 -3 -1.7 Jay Schroeder

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Julio Teheran R 26 32 32 197.0 171 53 24 182 87 81
Bartolo Colon R 44 29 26 156.3 107 27 21 172 78 73
Jaime Garcia L 30 23 22 127.3 113 37 17 126 61 57
Mike Foltynewicz R 25 26 26 142.0 138 50 21 139 72 67
R.A. Dickey R 42 26 25 154.0 106 55 20 151 82 77
Josh Collmenter R 31 31 15 100.7 68 31 14 103 49 46
Matt Wisler R 24 30 29 170.7 129 50 25 177 93 87
Sean Newcomb L 24 27 27 124.0 128 82 15 115 67 63
John Danks L 32 17 17 100.7 73 32 14 107 55 51
A.A. Ron Blair R 25 26 26 139.3 126 60 19 142 79 74
Luke Jackson R 25 56 0 62.3 75 32 6 52 27 25
Williams Perez R 26 23 22 110.7 78 39 14 118 62 58
Jed Bradley L 27 37 12 99.7 84 42 12 102 54 50
Armando Rivero R 29 45 0 60.7 78 33 7 50 27 25
Chaz Roe R 30 55 0 62.7 69 26 6 55 28 26
Daniel Winkler R 27 5 3 18.0 19 6 2 16 7 7
Ian Krol L 26 68 0 59.7 65 22 7 56 27 25
Lucas Sims R 23 21 21 94.0 93 62 12 89 54 50
A.J. Minter L 23 33 0 33.7 42 14 4 27 14 13
Arodys Vizcaino R 26 48 0 45.7 52 22 5 41 20 19
Jim Johnson R 34 64 0 62.3 58 18 6 61 29 27
Joe Wieland R 27 22 21 108.3 85 31 16 117 63 59
Shae Simmons R 26 29 0 27.0 28 13 3 24 12 11
Caleb Dirks R 24 49 0 57.0 60 25 7 52 27 25
Mauricio Cabrera R 23 70 0 73.3 69 45 6 67 35 33
Paco Rodriguez L 26 27 0 21.7 24 10 3 19 10 9
Jacob Lindgren L 24 13 0 15.0 19 11 2 12 6 6
Patrick Weigel R 22 24 23 130.3 127 70 21 127 77 72
Max Fried L 23 17 17 77.0 58 46 10 80 46 43
Chris Withrow R 28 37 0 32.3 33 17 4 29 16 15
Sam Freeman L 30 49 1 56.7 56 31 7 54 29 27
Jose Al. Ramirez R 27 52 0 61.7 66 33 8 57 31 29
Maikel Cleto R 28 38 0 46.3 59 25 7 40 24 22
Rob W00t3n R 31 43 3 63.3 55 16 9 65 34 32
Akeel Morris R 24 49 0 58.7 75 40 8 49 30 28
Matt Marksberry L 26 49 0 53.7 50 25 7 52 28 26
Steve Janas R 25 31 10 87.3 54 27 12 98 51 48
Brandon Cunniff R 28 52 0 59.0 58 32 8 55 31 29
Bradley Roney R 24 41 0 58.0 77 52 7 47 31 29
Jason Hursh R 25 56 0 69.0 48 31 7 73 37 35
Joel de la Cruz R 28 33 14 103.0 66 39 15 113 63 59
Fauxsto Carmona R 36 18 16 89.3 55 35 13 98 57 53
Casey Kelly R 27 23 13 79.7 52 31 11 89 50 47
Michael Mader L 23 26 25 122.0 83 58 17 136 77 72
Andres Avila R 27 41 0 67.3 56 23 11 70 39 36
Eric O’Flaherty L 32 39 0 32.7 27 11 4 35 21 20
Adam Kolarek L 28 48 0 60.3 50 34 7 61 36 34
Jesse Biddle L 25 16 16 80.7 64 47 14 88 57 53
Victor Mateo R 27 25 18 101.7 57 47 17 119 71 66

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Julio Teheran 197.0 826 20.7% 6.4% .277 3.70 3.92 90 97
Bartolo Colon 156.3 668 16.0% 4.0% .296 4.20 4.06 102 100
Jaime Garcia 127.3 545 20.7% 6.8% .292 4.03 4.11 98 102
Mike Foltynewicz 142.0 615 22.4% 8.1% .296 4.25 4.35 103 107
R.A. Dickey 154.0 668 15.9% 8.2% .273 4.50 4.71 109 116
Josh Collmenter 100.7 436 15.6% 7.1% .278 4.11 4.60 100 114
Matt Wisler 170.7 739 17.5% 6.8% .287 4.59 4.49 111 111
Sean Newcomb 124.0 569 22.5% 14.4% .298 4.57 4.87 111 120
John Danks 100.7 441 16.5% 7.3% .291 4.56 4.59 110 113
A.A. Ron Blair 139.3 620 20.3% 9.7% .303 4.78 4.59 116 114
Luke Jackson 62.3 271 27.7% 11.8% .299 3.61 3.76 87 93
Williams Perez 110.7 489 15.9% 8.0% .295 4.72 4.59 114 113
Jed Bradley 99.7 443 19.0% 9.5% .300 4.52 4.42 109 109
Armando Rivero 60.7 265 29.4% 12.4% .298 3.71 3.90 90 96
Chaz Roe 62.7 269 25.6% 9.7% .297 3.73 3.52 90 87
Daniel Winkler 18.0 76 25.0% 7.9% .292 3.50 3.69 85 91
Ian Krol 59.7 257 25.3% 8.6% .306 3.77 3.64 91 90
Lucas Sims 94.0 433 21.5% 14.3% .294 4.79 4.97 116 123
A.J. Minter 33.7 142 29.6% 9.9% .284 3.48 3.57 84 88
Arodys Vizcaino 45.7 200 26.0% 11.0% .300 3.74 3.71 91 92
Jim Johnson 62.3 266 21.8% 6.8% .306 3.90 3.59 94 89
Joe Wieland 108.3 473 18.0% 6.6% .300 4.90 4.51 119 111
Shae Simmons 27.0 118 23.7% 11.0% .288 3.67 4.11 89 102
Caleb Dirks 57.0 248 24.2% 10.1% .296 3.95 4.10 96 101
Mauricio Cabrera 73.3 332 20.8% 13.6% .292 4.05 4.21 98 104
Paco Rodriguez 21.7 94 25.5% 10.6% .285 3.74 4.15 91 103
Jacob Lindgren 15.0 68 27.9% 16.2% .278 3.60 4.59 87 113
Patrick Weigel 130.3 588 21.6% 11.9% .293 4.97 5.13 120 127
Max Fried 77.0 357 16.2% 12.9% .294 5.03 5.32 122 131
Chris Withrow 32.3 143 23.1% 11.9% .288 4.18 4.52 101 112
Sam Freeman 56.7 255 22.0% 12.2% .297 4.29 4.62 104 114
Jose Al. Ramirez 61.7 275 24.0% 12.0% .300 4.23 4.43 102 110
Maikel Cleto 46.3 204 28.9% 12.3% .300 4.27 4.35 103 108
Rob W00t3n 63.3 271 20.3% 5.9% .298 4.55 4.10 110 101
Akeel Morris 58.7 265 28.3% 15.1% .295 4.30 4.55 104 112
Matt Marksberry 53.7 238 21.0% 10.5% .294 4.36 4.47 106 110
Steve Janas 87.3 387 14.0% 7.0% .298 4.95 4.84 120 120
Brandon Cunniff 59.0 264 22.0% 12.1% .288 4.42 4.61 107 114
Bradley Roney 58.0 273 28.2% 19.0% .299 4.50 4.89 109 121
Jason Hursh 69.0 311 15.4% 10.0% .299 4.57 4.64 111 115
Joel de la Cruz 103.0 461 14.3% 8.5% .292 5.16 5.05 125 125
Fauxsto Carmona 89.3 401 13.7% 8.7% .289 5.34 5.09 129 126
Casey Kelly 79.7 359 14.5% 8.6% .300 5.31 4.96 129 122
Michael Mader 122.0 560 14.8% 10.4% .302 5.31 5.26 129 130
Andres Avila 67.3 295 19.0% 7.8% .294 4.81 4.72 116 117
Eric O’Flaherty 32.7 144 18.7% 7.6% .310 5.51 4.23 133 104
Adam Kolarek 60.3 276 18.1% 12.3% .299 5.07 4.88 123 121
Jesse Biddle 80.7 377 17.0% 12.5% .298 5.91 5.75 143 142
Victor Mateo 101.7 471 12.1% 10.0% .296 5.84 5.80 141 143

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Julio Teheran 197.0 7.81 2.42 1.10 106 3.4 Jeff Suppan
Bartolo Colon 156.3 6.16 1.55 1.21 94 1.6 Jim Bunning
Jaime Garcia 127.3 7.99 2.62 1.20 98 1.6 Dave LaPoint
Mike Foltynewicz 142.0 8.75 3.17 1.33 93 1.4 Rod Nichols
R.A. Dickey 154.0 6.19 3.21 1.17 88 1.1 Orel Hershiser
Josh Collmenter 100.7 6.08 2.77 1.25 96 1.0 Carl Erskine
Matt Wisler 170.7 6.80 2.64 1.32 86 1.0 Mike Wilkins
Sean Newcomb 124.0 9.29 5.95 1.09 86 0.7 Renyel Pinto
John Danks 100.7 6.52 2.86 1.25 86 0.6 Geoff Zahn
A.A. Ron Blair 139.3 8.14 3.88 1.23 82 0.5 Zach Miner
Luke Jackson 62.3 10.83 4.62 0.87 109 0.5 Bobby Jenks
Williams Perez 110.7 6.34 3.17 1.14 84 0.5 Jon Perlman
Jed Bradley 99.7 7.58 3.79 1.08 87 0.4 Chris Cumberland
Armando Rivero 60.7 11.57 4.89 1.04 106 0.4 Jorge Vasquez
Chaz Roe 62.7 9.90 3.73 0.86 106 0.4 Cory Bailey
Daniel Winkler 18.0 9.50 3.00 1.00 113 0.3 Bryn Smith
Ian Krol 59.7 9.80 3.32 1.06 104 0.3 Mike Maurer
Lucas Sims 94.0 8.90 5.94 1.15 82 0.3 Vince Perkins
A.J. Minter 33.7 11.22 3.74 1.07 113 0.3 B.J. Ryan
Arodys Vizcaino 45.7 10.24 4.33 0.98 105 0.3 Hipolito Pichardo
Jim Johnson 62.3 8.38 2.60 0.87 101 0.2 Mark Williamson
Joe Wieland 108.3 7.06 2.58 1.33 80 0.2 Chris Smith
Shae Simmons 27.0 9.33 4.33 1.00 107 0.2 Bobby Castillo
Caleb Dirks 57.0 9.47 3.95 1.11 100 0.2 Bill Snyder
Mauricio Cabrera 73.3 8.47 5.53 0.74 97 0.1 Joe Hudson
Paco Rodriguez 21.7 9.95 4.15 1.24 105 0.1 Thomas Hart
Jacob Lindgren 15.0 11.40 6.60 1.20 109 0.1 Buzz Oliver
Patrick Weigel 130.3 8.77 4.83 1.45 79 0.1 Marvin Freeman
Max Fried 77.0 6.78 5.38 1.17 78 0.0 Phil Dumatrait
Chris Withrow 32.3 9.20 4.74 1.11 94 0.0 Franklyn German
Sam Freeman 56.7 8.89 4.92 1.11 92 0.0 Matt Whisenant
Jose Al. Ramirez 61.7 9.63 4.81 1.17 93 0.0 Mike Shade
Maikel Cleto 46.3 11.47 4.86 1.36 92 0.0 Eric Cammack
Rob W00t3n 63.3 7.82 2.27 1.28 87 -0.1 Er1c M00dy
Akeel Morris 58.7 11.50 6.13 1.23 92 -0.1 Dana Ridenour
Matt Marksberry 53.7 8.38 4.19 1.17 90 -0.1 Jake Benz
Steve Janas 87.3 5.57 2.78 1.24 80 -0.1 Matt Goodson
Brandon Cunniff 59.0 8.85 4.88 1.22 89 -0.2 Jake Robbins
Bradley Roney 58.0 11.95 8.07 1.09 88 -0.2 Billy Sadler
Jason Hursh 69.0 6.26 4.04 0.91 86 -0.3 Gary Ross
Joel de la Cruz 103.0 5.77 3.41 1.31 76 -0.3 Mike Walker
Fauxsto Carmona 89.3 5.54 3.53 1.31 74 -0.4 Aaron Sele
Casey Kelly 79.7 5.87 3.50 1.24 74 -0.4 Wes Wilkerson
Michael Mader 122.0 6.12 4.28 1.25 74 -0.4 Bruce Lockhart
Andres Avila 67.3 7.49 3.08 1.47 82 -0.5 Tom Tellmann
Eric O’Flaherty 32.7 7.43 3.03 1.10 72 -0.5 Rich Kelley
Adam Kolarek 60.3 7.46 5.07 1.04 78 -0.7 Tom Doyle
Jesse Biddle 80.7 7.14 5.24 1.56 67 -0.9 Steve Bourgeois
Victor Mateo 101.7 5.04 4.16 1.50 67 -1.1 Mike Heathcott

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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