2017 ZiPS Projections – Chicago White Sox

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / New York AL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
The White Sox have dealt two of their best players this offseason, and reports indicate that at least one more trade is likely. As a result, these ZiPS projections serve not only as a preview for the 2017 edition of the club but also as an instrument to better evaluate trade value. Corner infielders Jose Abreu (652 PA, 2.9 zWAR) and Todd Frazier (634 PA, 3.4 zWAR) would appear to be most appealing in this regard. Both receive above-average win projections (the top-two figures among Chicago field players) while also featuring contracts that compensate them at something less than market rate.

Among those members of the team who are almost certain to return in 2017, shortstop Tim Anderson (586, 2.2) earns the top forecast. ZiPS offers little encouragement regarding Anderson’s plate discipline — calling for a walk and strikeout rate of 2.7% and 27.8%, respectively — but projects sufficiently strong batted-ball skill (.348 BABIP) and defense (+4 runs at short) to render Anderson a solidly average player.

Pitchers
Whether one measures his performance by FIP or runs allowed, left-hander Jose Quintana (189.0 IP, 3.9 zWAR) has averaged roughly five wins per season over the last three years — a remarkable and improbable outcome, that, for a pitcher who was acquired as a minor-league free agent and possesses merely decent velocity. Szymborski’s model suggests that Quintana might fail to reach the five-win mark in 2017. Nevertheless, he’s wildly undercompensated relative to his skill level. Owed roughly $35 million over the next four years (including two club options), he could produce the equivalent of that in wins by the end of 2017.

One note about this White Sox team: for whatever their weaknesses entering the 2016-17 offseason, the club’s collection of starting pitchers really wasn’t one of them. The combination of Quintana, Sale, and Carlos Rodon (165.0, 3.0) would have recorded probably 12 wins between them — or basically the precise value of the average entire rotation in 2016. Any contribution from the No. 4 and 5 starters would have rendered the rotation an above-average one.

Bench/Prospects
After years of relatively barren farm systems, the White Sox now have not a barren farm system. While absent from the depth-chart image below, Yoan Moncada (650 PA, 2.2 zWAR) and Michael Kopech (148.2 IP, 1.3 zWAR) — both acquired from Boston in exchange for Chris Sale — profile as the club’s third-best position player and fourth-best pitcher, respectively. Lucas Giolito (131.2, 1.5) and Reynaldo Lopez (126.2, 0.9), meanwhile — part of the return for Adam Eaton, that pair — rank fourth and seventh by WAR projection among the club’s pitchers.

Finally, there’s Tyler Saladino (397, 1.6), who wasn’t acquired in a giant trade and who isn’t even rookie-eligible still, but who is reasonably well acquitted by ZiPS.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the White Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

white-sox-depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Todd Frazier R 31 3B 634 84 138 26 1 30 87 14 7
Jose Abreu R 30 1B 652 79 170 31 2 28 99 1 2
Yoan Moncada B 22 2B 650 72 134 27 3 17 60 34 13
Tim Anderson R 24 SS 586 70 146 23 6 11 47 19 6
Tyler Saladino R 27 2B 397 46 91 14 3 9 42 14 4
Melky Cabrera B 32 LF 607 68 157 33 3 11 71 3 1
Brett Lawrie R 27 2B 455 47 105 22 1 14 47 5 2
Carlos Sanchez B 25 2B 514 53 112 22 3 9 47 9 5
Roberto Pena R 25 C 322 31 69 13 0 5 27 1 0
Kevan Smith R 29 C 327 36 69 12 1 8 32 0 1
Austin Jackson R 30 CF 445 51 103 22 4 5 40 10 5
Jason Coats R 27 RF 506 59 116 25 2 14 56 5 3
Nick Delmonico L 24 1B 353 43 74 19 1 13 43 2 1
Eddy Alvarez B 27 SS 513 56 100 18 3 8 46 15 8
Charlie Tilson L 24 CF 516 57 119 16 7 5 40 19 8
Jake Peter L 24 2B 562 58 122 22 3 6 44 8 2
Adam Engel R 25 CF 534 58 99 17 5 8 39 31 11
Rymer Liriano R 26 RF 415 49 79 16 2 10 40 13 7
Jeremy Dowdy R 26 C 209 21 44 8 1 3 17 0 0
Omar Narvaez L 25 C 303 31 68 9 0 2 21 1 1
Justin Morneau L 36 DH 313 28 75 16 2 8 33 0 1
Jerry Sands R 29 1B 349 37 73 12 1 12 40 0 1
Jacob May B 25 CF 369 37 79 13 1 4 26 18 9
Avisail Garcia R 26 RF 475 62 112 17 2 13 58 5 4
Ronald Bueno B 24 3B 292 28 57 11 2 2 21 6 4
Matt Davidson R 26 3B 472 53 87 17 0 16 51 0 0
Alfredo Gonzalez R 24 C 286 25 55 8 1 1 15 3 2
Leury Garcia B 26 LF 352 39 79 10 3 5 27 16 7
Caleb Gindl L 27 RF 414 38 84 17 2 8 33 2 2
Brett Hayes R 33 C 146 12 27 6 0 4 13 0 0
Jose Vinicio B 23 2B 284 22 66 8 3 2 17 7 6
Danny Hayes L 26 1B 378 41 68 14 2 9 38 0 1
Hunter Jones R 25 CF 397 40 75 10 3 6 27 15 7
Andy Parrino B 31 2B 318 27 57 9 1 4 21 2 1
Trey Michalczewski B 22 3B 563 61 106 23 3 13 58 4 1
Slade Heathcott L 26 CF 239 24 45 7 2 4 21 3 3
Tony Campana L 31 LF 349 33 72 6 2 0 16 17 8
Jason Bourgeois R 35 LF 416 44 98 15 3 3 31 11 4
Courtney Hawkins R 23 LF 433 45 79 20 1 16 54 0 4
Vinny Rottino R 37 1B 324 32 61 10 0 5 25 1 1
Nick Basto R 23 LF 549 60 110 23 2 13 54 1 2
Mason Robbins L 24 RF 481 43 107 18 4 6 39 2 3
Eudy Pina R 26 RF 431 40 80 11 3 6 34 5 3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Todd Frazier 634 8.2% 22.9% .207 .270 .243 .310 .450 .331
Jose Abreu 652 6.7% 18.9% .202 .320 .288 .348 .490 .350
Yoan Moncada 650 10.5% 25.7% .148 .303 .236 .325 .384 .325
Tim Anderson 586 2.7% 27.8% .121 .348 .260 .284 .381 .295
Tyler Saladino 397 5.5% 20.2% .129 .293 .249 .294 .378 .300
Melky Cabrera 607 6.6% 11.4% .129 .302 .281 .327 .410 .317
Brett Lawrie 455 6.6% 24.4% .158 .310 .252 .308 .410 .313
Carlos Sanchez 514 4.7% 22.4% .116 .290 .235 .276 .351 .276
Roberto Pena 322 4.0% 19.9% .093 .275 .230 .267 .323 .256
Kevan Smith 327 6.4% 22.3% .127 .279 .232 .289 .359 .281
Austin Jackson 445 7.2% 23.1% .111 .326 .254 .309 .365 .302
Jason Coats 506 5.1% 22.1% .152 .296 .248 .294 .400 .302
Nick Delmonico 353 7.1% 31.2% .186 .303 .231 .288 .417 .303
Eddy Alvarez 513 9.0% 24.2% .106 .284 .221 .294 .327 .283
Charlie Tilson 516 6.4% 19.4% .094 .306 .251 .302 .345 .295
Jake Peter 562 6.4% 21.4% .090 .294 .236 .291 .326 .274
Adam Engel 534 7.1% 31.5% .105 .294 .204 .270 .309 .275
Rymer Liriano 415 8.0% 34.0% .133 .305 .211 .282 .344 .287
Jeremy Dowdy 209 8.1% 20.1% .100 .283 .232 .298 .332 .278
Omar Narvaez 303 6.9% 14.5% .054 .282 .245 .298 .299 .265
Justin Morneau 313 6.1% 18.2% .153 .296 .260 .310 .413 .308
Jerry Sands 349 8.6% 26.1% .160 .286 .232 .302 .392 .302
Jacob May 369 4.3% 25.7% .078 .302 .228 .268 .306 .271
Avisail Garcia 475 6.5% 24.8% .137 .321 .257 .312 .394 .311
Ronald Bueno 292 8.2% 27.4% .081 .304 .218 .285 .299 .267
Matt Davidson 472 8.1% 36.0% .153 .293 .205 .276 .358 .274
Alfredo Gonzalez 286 7.3% 25.2% .051 .290 .214 .279 .265 .249
Leury Garcia 352 5.1% 24.4% .095 .314 .243 .285 .338 .282
Caleb Gindl 414 7.7% 24.2% .119 .280 .223 .286 .342 .277
Brett Hayes 146 4.1% 31.5% .130 .261 .196 .234 .326 .242
Jose Vinicio 284 2.5% 18.0% .075 .295 .245 .266 .320 .263
Danny Hayes 378 11.1% 30.4% .136 .282 .205 .295 .341 .280
Hunter Jones 397 6.0% 28.7% .094 .283 .208 .266 .302 .265
Andy Parrino 318 6.9% 31.1% .079 .279 .195 .256 .274 .237
Trey Michalczewski 563 7.3% 34.1% .133 .299 .206 .270 .339 .268
Slade Heathcott 239 7.9% 33.1% .107 .306 .209 .277 .316 .267
Tony Campana 349 5.7% 22.1% .032 .298 .226 .276 .258 .254
Jason Bourgeois 416 5.0% 12.3% .077 .281 .251 .290 .328 .279
Courtney Hawkins 433 4.6% 40.2% .173 .288 .195 .236 .368 .261
Vinny Rottino 324 9.0% 26.2% .087 .280 .212 .291 .299 .265
Nick Basto 549 6.2% 29.3% .131 .291 .219 .274 .350 .271
Mason Robbins 481 1.9% 24.3% .094 .291 .230 .244 .324 .245
Eudy Pina 431 5.1% 32.3% .087 .286 .200 .247 .287 .238

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Todd Frazier 634 5.0 110 1 3.4 Gary Gaetti
Jose Abreu 652 6.4 132 -3 2.9 Bob Watson
Yoan Moncada 650 4.6 98 -4 2.2 Tony Phillips
Tim Anderson 586 4.1 85 4 2.2 Alex Gonzalez
Tyler Saladino 397 4.2 87 5 1.6 Carlos Garcia
Melky Cabrera 607 5.1 106 -4 1.2 Shannon Stewart
Brett Lawrie 455 4.6 100 -6 1.2 Bret Boone
Carlos Sanchez 514 3.4 75 6 1.0 Doug Strange
Roberto Pena 322 3.1 65 5 0.9 Hector Kuilan
Kevan Smith 327 3.6 81 -1 0.9 Guillermo Garcia
Austin Jackson 445 4.1 89 -2 0.9 Gino Cimoli
Jason Coats 506 4.2 93 2 0.8 Jeff Francoeur
Nick Delmonico 353 4.2 95 5 0.8 Lee Stevens
Eddy Alvarez 513 3.3 74 -1 0.7 Doug Baker
Charlie Tilson 516 3.8 82 -2 0.7 Luis Polonia
Jake Peter 562 3.4 73 2 0.6 Kelly Paris
Adam Engel 534 3.0 62 6 0.5 Gary Varsho
Rymer Liriano 415 3.3 75 8 0.4 Jim Orsag
Jeremy Dowdy 209 3.5 77 -2 0.4 Dave Parrish
Omar Narvaez 303 3.1 69 -1 0.4 Dave Miley
Justin Morneau 313 4.6 101 0 0.3 Jorge Orta
Jerry Sands 349 4.1 93 1 0.3 Ivan Cruz
Jacob May 369 2.9 61 6 0.3 Virgilio Silverio
Avisail Garcia 475 4.4 97 -6 0.1 Ruben Mateo
Ronald Bueno 292 2.9 64 2 0.1 Manuel Francois
Matt Davidson 472 3.4 76 -4 0.1 Paul Russo
Alfredo Gonzalez 286 2.5 54 0 0.1 Jeff Tackett
Leury Garcia 352 3.5 74 4 0.0 Reggie Williams
Caleb Gindl 414 3.3 75 2 -0.2 Matt Bowser
Brett Hayes 146 2.6 55 -2 -0.3 Chad Moeller
Jose Vinicio 284 2.9 63 2 -0.3 Cris Colon
Danny Hayes 378 3.4 78 2 -0.3 Matthew Rizzotti
Hunter Jones 397 2.8 59 1 -0.3 Tony Triplett
Andy Parrino 318 2.4 49 4 -0.4 Chris Petersen
Trey Michalczewski 563 3.2 70 -5 -0.4 Corey Smith
Slade Heathcott 239 2.9 66 -4 -0.5 Damon Mashore
Tony Campana 349 2.5 51 6 -0.7 Quincy Foster
Jason Bourgeois 416 3.5 73 -3 -0.8 Jay Payton
Courtney Hawkins 433 2.7 66 -1 -1.3 Brian Pettway
Vinny Rottino 324 2.9 66 -4 -1.4 Jason Wood
Nick Basto 549 3.3 74 -7 -1.5 Shon Ashley
Mason Robbins 481 2.7 58 -2 -2.0 Brennan Boesch
Eudy Pina 431 2.4 49 -1 -2.1 Andrew Toussaint

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Jose Quintana L 28 30 30 189.0 168 47 20 189 82 77
Carlos Rodon L 24 28 28 165.0 171 61 19 160 76 71
Lucas Giolito R 22 25 24 131.7 129 53 20 134 70 65
Michael Kopech R 21 28 28 148.7 180 74 16 124 72 67
Miguel Gonzalez R 33 25 25 136.0 105 42 21 146 75 70
James Shields R 35 28 28 166.0 141 61 28 177 96 90
Reynaldo Lopez R 23 26 23 126.7 131 52 20 129 72 67
Nate Jones R 31 52 0 50.0 59 12 7 41 18 17
David Robertson R 32 58 0 59.0 80 23 7 47 24 22
Dan Jennings L 30 58 0 57.3 49 24 5 57 24 22
Jordan Guerrero L 23 24 24 133.0 118 51 21 141 78 73
Zach Putnam R 29 39 0 41.0 48 17 4 35 16 15
Derek Holland L 30 19 17 88.7 67 30 14 95 51 48
Jake Petricka R 29 42 0 43.7 36 19 4 43 19 18
Brian Clark L 24 39 0 57.7 43 16 5 61 27 25
Tommy Kahnle R 27 56 0 58.3 66 37 7 51 29 27
Spencer Adams R 21 26 26 144.7 84 32 23 173 91 85
Zack Burdi R 22 53 0 69.0 78 38 9 65 35 33
Chris Volstad R 30 25 24 140.3 73 44 20 166 89 83
Matt Albers R 34 35 0 35.0 25 11 4 39 18 17
Juan Minaya R 26 41 0 58.3 52 27 6 58 31 29
Giovanni Soto L 26 41 0 51.7 51 29 6 50 28 26
Chris Beck R 26 31 13 92.7 61 39 13 106 58 54
Matt Cooper R 25 32 6 73.0 81 28 14 73 44 41
Michael Ynoa R 25 39 0 51.0 49 29 6 50 28 26
Jordan Stephens R 24 26 26 128.3 122 53 25 137 83 78
Tyler Danish R 22 23 20 114.7 69 44 17 137 75 70
Kameron Loe R 35 21 7 55.7 31 19 9 68 36 34
Blake Smith R 29 44 0 61.7 60 30 9 62 35 33
Nolan Sanburn R 25 35 3 62.3 49 29 9 68 39 36
Anthony Ranaudo R 27 26 24 131.3 96 50 25 148 87 81
Jorge Rondon R 29 46 0 60.7 47 28 7 65 35 33
Daniel Webb R 27 32 0 40.0 34 23 6 42 25 23
Dylan Covey R 25 17 17 83.3 49 42 13 97 58 54
Matt Purke L 26 26 7 51.3 40 31 9 58 36 34
Brad Goldberg R 27 45 0 54.0 49 33 8 56 34 32
David Holmberg L 25 26 25 136.7 85 51 25 161 93 87
Phillippe Aumont R 28 21 5 44.7 46 39 7 45 33 31
Will Lamb L 26 43 0 53.0 44 34 9 57 37 35
Carson Fulmer R 23 28 20 106.0 100 69 20 113 78 73
El’Hajj Muhammad R 25 41 2 47.0 34 39 9 54 39 36
Matt Lollis R 26 44 0 59.3 53 39 12 64 44 41

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Jose Quintana 189.0 803 20.9% 5.9% .300 3.67 3.48 86 80
Carlos Rodon 165.0 716 23.9% 8.5% .308 3.87 3.73 91 86
Lucas Giolito 131.7 582 22.2% 9.1% .305 4.44 4.47 104 103
Michael Kopech 148.7 644 27.9% 11.5% .293 4.06 3.70 96 85
Miguel Gonzalez 136.0 596 17.6% 7.0% .297 4.63 4.63 109 107
James Shields 166.0 736 19.2% 8.3% .299 4.88 4.81 115 111
Reynaldo Lopez 126.7 561 23.3% 9.3% .309 4.76 4.39 112 101
Nate Jones 50.0 203 29.1% 5.9% .276 3.06 3.29 72 76
David Robertson 59.0 247 32.4% 9.3% .294 3.36 3.00 79 69
Dan Jennings 57.3 253 19.4% 9.5% .299 3.45 3.73 81 86
Jordan Guerrero 133.0 591 20.0% 8.6% .305 4.94 4.72 116 109
Zach Putnam 41.0 175 27.4% 9.7% .295 3.29 3.20 77 74
Derek Holland 88.7 391 17.1% 7.7% .292 4.87 4.70 115 108
Jake Petricka 43.7 193 18.6% 9.8% .293 3.71 3.88 87 90
Brian Clark 57.7 250 17.2% 6.4% .304 3.90 3.68 92 85
Tommy Kahnle 58.3 263 25.1% 14.1% .290 4.17 4.20 98 97
Spencer Adams 144.7 639 13.1% 5.0% .305 5.29 4.86 124 112
Zack Burdi 69.0 310 25.2% 12.3% .309 4.30 4.28 101 99
Chris Volstad 140.3 631 11.6% 7.0% .300 5.32 4.99 125 115
Matt Albers 35.0 155 16.1% 7.1% .310 4.37 4.19 103 97
Juan Minaya 58.3 260 20.0% 10.4% .303 4.47 4.15 105 96
Giovanni Soto 51.7 234 21.8% 12.4% .303 4.53 4.44 107 102
Chris Beck 92.7 423 14.4% 9.2% .305 5.24 4.94 123 114
Matt Cooper 73.0 320 25.3% 8.8% .306 5.05 4.70 119 108
Michael Ynoa 51.0 232 21.1% 12.5% .306 4.59 4.48 108 103
Jordan Stephens 128.3 575 21.2% 9.2% .305 5.47 5.16 129 119
Tyler Danish 114.7 525 13.1% 8.4% .308 5.49 5.11 129 118
Kameron Loe 55.7 254 12.2% 7.5% .307 5.50 5.22 129 121
Blake Smith 61.7 277 21.7% 10.8% .304 4.82 4.66 113 108
Nolan Sanburn 62.3 284 17.3% 10.2% .306 5.20 5.00 122 115
Anthony Ranaudo 131.3 592 16.2% 8.4% .296 5.55 5.40 131 125
Jorge Rondon 60.7 275 17.1% 10.2% .305 4.90 4.49 115 104
Daniel Webb 40.0 185 18.4% 12.4% .298 5.17 5.01 122 116
Dylan Covey 83.3 389 12.6% 10.8% .300 5.83 5.65 137 130
Matt Purke 51.3 243 16.5% 12.8% .305 5.96 5.76 140 133
Brad Goldberg 54.0 251 19.5% 13.1% .302 5.33 5.11 125 118
David Holmberg 136.7 622 13.7% 8.2% .300 5.73 5.51 135 127
Phillippe Aumont 44.7 218 21.1% 17.9% .306 6.25 5.84 147 135
Will Lamb 53.0 250 17.6% 13.6% .300 5.94 5.75 140 133
Carson Fulmer 106.0 500 20.0% 13.8% .307 6.20 5.85 146 135
El’Hajj Muhammad 47.0 234 14.5% 16.7% .302 6.89 6.77 162 156
Matt Lollis 59.3 281 18.9% 13.9% .299 6.22 5.97 146 138

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Jose Quintana 189.0 8.00 2.24 0.95 113 3.9 John Candelaria
Carlos Rodon 165.0 9.33 3.33 1.04 107 3.0 Danny Jackson
Lucas Giolito 131.7 8.82 3.62 1.37 93 1.5 Freddy Garcia
Michael Kopech 148.7 10.89 4.48 0.97 102 1.3 Bobby Witt
Miguel Gonzalez 136.0 6.95 2.78 1.39 89 1.2 Larry Luebbers
James Shields 166.0 7.64 3.31 1.52 85 1.0 Mike Torrez
Reynaldo Lopez 126.7 9.31 3.69 1.42 87 0.9 Wascar Serrano
Nate Jones 50.0 10.62 2.16 1.26 135 0.9 Rick Aguilera
David Robertson 59.0 12.20 3.51 1.07 123 0.8 Todd Jones
Dan Jennings 57.3 7.70 3.77 0.79 120 0.7 Javier Lopez
Jordan Guerrero 133.0 7.98 3.45 1.42 84 0.7 Mike Connolly
Zach Putnam 41.0 10.54 3.73 0.88 126 0.6 Ken Ryan
Derek Holland 88.7 6.80 3.04 1.42 85 0.5 Joe Magrane
Jake Petricka 43.7 7.41 3.91 0.82 112 0.4 Ed Farmer
Brian Clark 57.7 6.71 2.50 0.78 106 0.4 Steve Sharts
Tommy Kahnle 58.3 10.19 5.71 1.08 99 0.2 Mark Acre
Spencer Adams 144.7 5.22 1.99 1.43 78 0.1 Paul Quantrill
Zack Burdi 69.0 10.17 4.96 1.17 96 0.1 Billy Sadler
Chris Volstad 140.3 4.68 2.82 1.28 78 0.1 Don Nottebart
Matt Albers 35.0 6.43 2.83 1.03 95 0.0 Ken Sanders
Juan Minaya 58.3 8.03 4.17 0.93 93 0.0 Joel Moore
Giovanni Soto 51.7 8.88 5.05 1.04 91 0.0 Scott Wiggins
Chris Beck 92.7 5.92 3.79 1.26 79 -0.1 Stan Kyles
Matt Cooper 73.0 9.99 3.45 1.73 82 -0.1 Julian Heredia
Michael Ynoa 51.0 8.65 5.12 1.06 90 -0.1 Blaine Neal
Jordan Stephens 128.3 8.56 3.72 1.75 76 -0.2 Jose Acevedo
Tyler Danish 114.7 5.41 3.45 1.33 75 -0.2 Zach McClellan
Kameron Loe 55.7 5.01 3.07 1.45 75 -0.2 Joe Haynes
Blake Smith 61.7 8.75 4.38 1.31 86 -0.3 Marty McLeary
Nolan Sanburn 62.3 7.08 4.19 1.30 80 -0.3 Brad Pautz
Anthony Ranaudo 131.3 6.58 3.43 1.71 75 -0.3 Rusty Richards
Jorge Rondon 60.7 6.97 4.15 1.04 85 -0.3 Jake Robbins
Daniel Webb 40.0 7.65 5.18 1.35 80 -0.4 Ed Sprague
Dylan Covey 83.3 5.29 4.54 1.40 71 -0.5 Kevin Hodges
Matt Purke 51.3 7.02 5.44 1.58 69 -0.6 Wes Pierorazio
Brad Goldberg 54.0 8.17 5.50 1.33 78 -0.6 Mike Zimmerman
David Holmberg 136.7 5.60 3.36 1.65 72 -0.6 Larry Casian
Phillippe Aumont 44.7 9.26 7.85 1.41 66 -0.7 Bart Evans
Will Lamb 53.0 7.47 5.77 1.53 70 -1.0 Randy Phillips
Carson Fulmer 106.0 8.49 5.86 1.70 67 -1.2 Robert Person
El’Hajj Muhammad 47.0 6.51 7.47 1.72 60 -1.3 Mark Zamarripa
Matt Lollis 59.3 8.04 5.92 1.82 67 -1.3 John Thompson

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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