2017 ZiPS Projections – Cincinnati Reds

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Cincinnati produced the worst BaseRuns record in the majors last year, tied with a very rebuilding Philadelphia team. The club’s field players weren’t really the problem, however, recording just a few wins less than a league-average unit.

The projections here reflect the general competence of the club’s position players. After Joey Votto (592 PA, 4.6 zWAR), who unsuprisingly receives the top wins forecast in the organization, there exists a collection of reasonably useful pieces. The front office probably deserves credit, in fact, for some of its discoveries. Adam Duvall (549, 1.9), Scott Schebler (564, 1.7), and Eugenio Suarez (608, 2.3) all profile as roughly league-average types, for example, despite having appeared on zero top-100 lists collectively as prospects.

This isn’t to suggest that there’s no room for improvement among the batting types here, but rather that “average” is probably not an unreasonable outcome for this group.

Pitchers
Reds starters, on the other hand, produced the worst WAR figure last season among major-league rotations. And, in what is likely not a promising development for 2017, Dan Straily — one of only two starters to record more than a single win last year — was sent to Miami in a trade this offseason. Anthony DeSclafani (171.2 IP, 2.6 zWAR) receives the lone projection greater than two wins. Only one other pitcher likely to appear in the Opening Day rotation, Brandon Finnegan (151.1, 1.6), earns more than a single win.

The club’s bullpen, meanwhile, was historically bad in 2016, producing the second-worst collective WAR figure of this dumb century. While the rotation doesn’t appear to have benefited from any substantive reinforcements, the relief corps does seem to have become stronger as the 2017 season approaches. The installation of Raisel Iglesias (65.0 IP, 72 ERA-, 1.0 zWAR) into a full-time relief role is almost sufficient to render the entire unit serviceable. Drew Storen (55.2, 84, 0.5) is also helpful in that regard.

Bench/Prospects
Because he’s a corner-outfield prospect who’s exhibited little power, Jesse Winker (509, 2.2) doesn’t earn much in the way of effusive praise. Dan Szmborski’s computer suggests he’s a league-average player already, though. The organization features a number of other possibly useful players who are nevertheless omitted from the depth-chart graphic below, Dilson Herrera (495, 1.8) and Jose Peraza (593, 1.9) most notable among them.

While the Opening Day rotation surely has its flaws, there’s some interesting depth in the organization. Cody Reed (133.1 IP, 1.2 zWAR) and Jackson Stephens (144.0, 1.1) receive the third- and fourth-best wins projections, respectively, among pitchers. Prospect Tyler Mahle (141.1, 0.8) also earns some promising numbers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Reds, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Joey Votto L 33 1B 592 80 139 29 2 21 73 7 2
Eugenio Suarez R 25 3B 608 73 138 26 3 19 69 10 6
Billy Hamilton B 26 CF 513 67 117 18 5 5 32 59 11
Jesse Winker L 23 RF 509 61 122 22 1 13 54 3 1
Adam Duvall R 28 LF 549 74 123 27 4 28 87 4 2
Zack Cozart R 31 SS 443 54 101 21 3 11 46 4 1
Jose Peraza R 23 SS 593 63 153 21 8 8 55 29 12
Dilson Herrera R 23 2B 495 65 115 21 3 18 63 8 7
Scott Schebler L 26 LF 564 72 128 21 9 21 79 8 3
Phil Ervin R 24 LF 530 66 109 23 3 16 62 22 9
Tucker Barnhart B 26 C 376 32 85 16 1 5 36 1 0
Brandon Phillips R 36 2B 532 59 136 23 1 9 60 11 5
Arismendy Alcantara B 25 2B 545 66 116 23 8 17 64 22 7
Aristides Aquino R 23 RF 469 58 109 21 7 14 68 6 5
Chad Wallach R 25 C 315 35 62 14 1 5 31 1 1
Rob Brantly L 27 C 324 35 76 12 2 10 40 0 1
Alex Blandino R 24 2B 485 55 100 20 1 12 47 10 8
Devin Mesoraco R 29 C 170 19 36 8 0 7 18 1 1
Tony Renda R 26 2B 545 56 127 28 3 4 42 16 5
Stuart Turner R 25 C 353 35 70 11 1 6 32 4 2
Josh VanMeter L 22 3B 400 45 86 16 2 10 40 7 4
Patrick Kivlehan R 27 3B 497 57 109 20 3 16 58 7 3
Adrian Nieto B 27 C 207 20 37 7 0 5 18 1 0
Zach Vincej R 26 SS 428 43 93 16 2 4 32 6 6
Carlos Triunfel R 27 2B 385 36 88 19 3 6 37 2 2
Taylor Sparks R 24 3B 461 50 84 16 3 17 55 7 4
Blake Trahan R 23 SS 571 64 119 20 6 4 47 15 8
Hernan Iribarren L 33 CF 381 36 86 12 3 2 25 3 3
Raffy Lopez L 29 C 263 24 53 11 1 3 20 1 1
Shawn Zarraga B 28 C 207 19 46 10 0 1 14 0 2
Kyle Skipworth L 27 C 198 21 32 7 1 9 22 0 1
Eric Jagielo L 25 3B 359 38 65 13 1 13 38 0 0
Brandon Allen L 31 1B 357 40 68 13 2 10 37 1 1
Chris Berset B 29 C 257 23 52 8 0 2 17 0 1
Sebastian Elizalde L 25 RF 456 50 105 19 3 10 49 7 5
Yorman Rodriguez R 24 LF 263 31 56 9 2 8 24 4 2
Brandon Dixon R 25 2B 464 49 95 18 2 14 51 10 5
Carlton Daal R 23 SS 288 25 64 5 1 1 17 10 4
Gabriel Guerrero R 23 RF 487 45 100 21 4 13 50 7 3
Gavin LaValley R 22 1B 479 51 104 26 2 11 54 2 1
Ray Chang R 33 2B 219 19 46 9 0 1 14 1 1
Beau Amaral L 26 CF 410 41 86 12 3 5 32 9 8
Donald Lutz L 28 1B 218 20 39 7 1 4 19 2 0

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Joey Votto 592 17.9% 19.4% .201 .341 .291 .421 .493 .381
Eugenio Suarez 608 7.4% 24.8% .162 .311 .251 .314 .413 .321
Billy Hamilton 513 6.8% 19.1% .092 .307 .251 .304 .343 .311
Jesse Winker 509 11.0% 18.3% .141 .318 .274 .358 .415 .333
Adam Duvall 549 6.2% 26.0% .236 .281 .244 .297 .480 .330
Zack Cozart 443 6.1% 16.3% .147 .275 .248 .298 .396 .297
Jose Peraza 593 4.0% 12.5% .111 .307 .279 .312 .390 .315
Dilson Herrera 495 7.1% 20.8% .180 .291 .255 .311 .435 .327
Scott Schebler 564 6.4% 25.4% .199 .306 .250 .314 .449 .326
Phil Ervin 530 8.5% 25.5% .163 .287 .231 .309 .395 .321
Tucker Barnhart 376 8.2% 17.0% .098 .295 .252 .316 .350 .283
Brandon Phillips 532 3.8% 12.6% .104 .297 .273 .306 .377 .300
Arismendy Alcantara 545 6.1% 29.4% .179 .300 .230 .277 .409 .304
Aristides Aquino 469 4.7% 26.2% .174 .310 .247 .288 .421 .309
Chad Wallach 315 10.2% 23.8% .112 .286 .224 .309 .336 .286
Rob Brantly 324 3.4% 18.5% .150 .275 .248 .276 .397 .288
Alex Blandino 485 8.5% 28.2% .134 .306 .230 .304 .364 .304
Devin Mesoraco 170 8.8% 21.2% .192 .266 .238 .318 .430 .323
Tony Renda 545 6.4% 12.3% .092 .286 .255 .309 .347 .296
Stuart Turner 353 6.8% 24.4% .097 .276 .218 .278 .315 .266
Josh VanMeter 400 8.0% 20.8% .137 .278 .236 .298 .373 .298
Patrick Kivlehan 497 5.6% 27.4% .160 .297 .236 .284 .396 .298
Adrian Nieto 207 9.7% 32.9% .120 .288 .202 .283 .322 .265
Zach Vincej 428 6.1% 22.9% .081 .304 .237 .289 .318 .276
Carlos Triunfel 385 1.8% 21.8% .117 .293 .239 .262 .356 .265
Taylor Sparks 461 5.2% 41.0% .172 .300 .198 .250 .369 .273
Blake Trahan 571 6.1% 14.9% .084 .263 .228 .278 .312 .268
Hernan Iribarren 381 6.6% 18.4% .069 .300 .246 .296 .314 .268
Raffy Lopez 263 8.0% 25.5% .092 .294 .223 .286 .315 .265
Shawn Zarraga 207 8.2% 17.4% .070 .298 .249 .311 .319 .279
Kyle Skipworth 198 6.6% 47.0% .201 .291 .179 .244 .380 .268
Eric Jagielo 359 7.8% 37.0% .167 .291 .201 .276 .368 .279
Brandon Allen 357 10.1% 24.6% .149 .262 .215 .297 .364 .288
Chris Berset 257 6.6% 21.8% .060 .281 .222 .278 .282 .248
Sebastian Elizalde 456 5.5% 23.7% .130 .306 .248 .290 .377 .294
Yorman Rodriguez 263 5.7% 32.7% .151 .316 .229 .275 .380 .288
Brandon Dixon 464 4.1% 35.1% .146 .308 .217 .253 .364 .271
Carlton Daal 288 4.9% 20.8% .037 .303 .239 .281 .276 .259
Gabriel Guerrero 487 4.5% 28.1% .148 .276 .217 .251 .364 .267
Gavin LaValley 479 6.7% 27.8% .143 .310 .236 .290 .379 .292
Ray Chang 219 6.4% 22.4% .059 .294 .228 .280 .287 .255
Beau Amaral 410 5.4% 24.1% .088 .295 .228 .278 .316 .272
Donald Lutz 218 5.5% 38.5% .104 .304 .193 .248 .297 .239

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Joey Votto 592 8.0 147 2 4.6 Todd Helton
Eugenio Suarez 608 4.6 95 2 2.3 Ty Wigginton
Billy Hamilton 513 4.6 75 9 2.3 Chuck Carr
Jesse Winker 509 5.5 109 3 2.2 Nick Markakis
Adam Duvall 549 5.1 106 2 1.9 Craig Monroe
Zack Cozart 443 4.3 86 6 1.9 Leo Durocher
Jose Peraza 593 4.7 89 -1 1.9 Alcides Escobar
Dilson Herrera 495 4.8 100 0 1.8 Tony Batista
Scott Schebler 564 5.1 104 0 1.7 Termel Sledge
Phil Ervin 530 4.4 90 5 1.3 Matt Lawton
Tucker Barnhart 376 4.0 81 2 1.3 Jason Jaramillo
Brandon Phillips 532 4.3 84 1 1.1 Cookie Rojas
Arismendy Alcantara 545 4.1 83 -3 0.8 Todd Dunwoody
Aristides Aquino 469 4.2 89 3 0.7 Tyler Colvin
Chad Wallach 315 3.6 75 -1 0.7 Steve Torrealba
Rob Brantly 324 3.9 80 -2 0.6 Matt Merullo
Alex Blandino 485 3.7 80 -1 0.6 David Newhan
Devin Mesoraco 170 4.8 101 -3 0.6 Dave Valle
Tony Renda 545 4.0 78 -3 0.6 Mark DeRosa
Stuart Turner 353 3.0 61 2 0.4 Jose Molina
Josh VanMeter 400 3.9 81 -3 0.3 Ken Bonifay
Patrick Kivlehan 497 4.0 82 -5 0.3 Adam Fox
Adrian Nieto 207 3.1 64 -1 0.2 Adam Donachie
Zach Vincej 428 3.1 65 1 0.1 Mendy Lopez
Carlos Triunfel 385 3.2 66 4 0.1 Andre Robertson
Taylor Sparks 461 3.1 65 3 0.1 Duane Thielen
Blake Trahan 571 3.0 60 3 0.1 Andy Sheets
Hernan Iribarren 381 3.2 66 2 0.0 Ken Ramos
Raffy Lopez 263 3.1 63 -3 -0.1 Dave Parrish
Shawn Zarraga 207 3.3 72 -4 -0.1 Johnny Oates
Kyle Skipworth 198 2.9 66 -3 -0.1 Gary Tremblay
Eric Jagielo 359 3.4 73 -6 -0.3 Steve Mena
Brandon Allen 357 3.7 78 0 -0.4 Ryan McGuire
Chris Berset 257 2.6 53 -2 -0.4 Chris Tremie
Sebastian Elizalde 456 3.9 80 -3 -0.4 Rich Lane
Yorman Rodriguez 263 3.7 75 -3 -0.5 Jason Herrick
Brandon Dixon 464 3.2 65 -3 -0.6 Steve Scarsone
Carlton Daal 288 2.8 52 -3 -0.6 Ramiro Pena
Gabriel Guerrero 487 3.2 64 4 -0.7 Mike Mallory
Gavin LaValley 479 3.9 80 -5 -0.9 Christopher Vinyard
Ray Chang 219 2.8 55 -6 -1.0 Kevin Baez
Beau Amaral 410 2.9 61 -7 -1.2 Kevin Wiggins
Donald Lutz 218 2.6 47 -2 -1.3 Greg Thomas

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Anthony DeSclafani R 27 29 29 171.7 147 44 23 169 79 74
Brandon Finnegan L 24 28 28 151.3 138 58 23 141 76 71
Cody Reed L 24 24 24 133.3 125 44 22 132 70 65
Jackson Stephens R 23 25 25 144.0 112 44 19 149 77 72
Raisel Iglesias R 27 58 0 65.0 73 21 7 55 24 22
Tyler Mahle R 22 27 26 141.3 115 40 24 152 78 73
Homer Bailey R 31 15 15 88.0 75 27 12 90 47 44
Luis Castillo R 24 29 21 112.3 85 37 17 115 62 58
Drew Storen R 29 60 0 55.7 55 15 6 51 24 22
Scott Feldman R 34 22 22 129.0 83 37 20 141 74 69
Tim Adleman R 29 27 19 111.7 82 37 18 116 63 59
Michael Lorenzen R 25 50 0 62.3 59 20 8 58 28 26
Jumbo Diaz R 33 64 0 63.7 64 24 9 57 29 27
Blake Wood R 31 55 0 55.7 64 26 6 48 26 24
Alejandro Chacin R 24 55 0 62.0 66 32 7 56 29 27
Amir Garrett L 25 24 24 123.3 110 68 18 121 73 68
Nick Routt L 26 52 0 65.0 53 29 7 63 32 30
Deunte Heath R 31 44 0 45.0 55 17 8 39 22 21
Ross Ohlendorf R 34 53 0 57.3 61 25 9 53 29 27
Pedro Villarreal R 29 29 0 42.3 31 12 6 44 21 20
Sal Romano R 23 26 26 137.7 103 46 22 148 83 78
Rob W00t3n R 31 43 3 63.3 59 16 11 63 34 32
Nick Travieso R 23 25 25 128.7 87 55 20 137 79 74
Louis Coleman R 31 55 0 58.3 58 27 9 55 31 29
Tony Cingrani L 27 56 0 51.7 51 31 6 47 28 26
Wandy Peralta L 25 64 0 73.7 58 36 8 73 40 37
Rookie Davis R 24 25 24 123.3 86 41 22 137 77 72
Caleb Cotham R 29 34 0 39.3 38 15 6 40 22 21
Robert Stephenson R 24 24 24 122.3 128 84 21 114 77 72
A.J. Morris R 30 31 6 60.0 48 29 10 62 37 35
Austin Brice R 25 34 19 110.7 96 55 19 114 70 65
Evan Mitchell R 25 43 0 53.7 39 25 7 55 31 29
Keury Mella R 23 23 22 113.7 79 52 18 125 73 68
Drew Hayes R 29 46 1 64.7 56 37 8 64 37 35
Jefri Hernandez R 26 32 0 39.7 36 25 5 39 25 23
Kevin Shackelford R 28 40 0 48.0 30 21 6 52 29 27
Alfredo Simon R 36 22 20 114.0 75 45 18 126 74 69
Barrett Astin R 25 33 16 108.3 86 41 20 113 70 65
Lucas Luetge L 30 43 0 56.0 50 28 9 55 34 32
Jon Moscot R 25 18 18 94.3 62 36 18 104 63 59
Tim Melville R 27 20 17 82.0 58 48 19 94 65 61
Geoff Broussard R 26 42 0 61.0 52 26 15 68 47 44

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Anthony DeSclafani 171.7 728 20.2% 6.0% .288 3.88 4.07 92 95
Brandon Finnegan 151.3 653 21.1% 8.9% .275 4.22 4.57 100 106
Cody Reed 133.3 576 21.7% 7.6% .291 4.39 4.58 104 107
Jackson Stephens 144.0 625 17.9% 7.0% .294 4.50 4.43 107 103
Raisel Iglesias 65.0 271 26.9% 7.7% .289 3.05 3.49 72 81
Tyler Mahle 141.3 616 18.7% 6.5% .298 4.65 4.79 110 111
Homer Bailey 88.0 381 19.7% 7.1% .297 4.50 4.28 107 100
Luis Castillo 112.3 489 17.4% 7.6% .286 4.65 4.82 110 112
Drew Storen 55.7 233 23.6% 6.4% .298 3.56 3.64 84 85
Scott Feldman 129.0 565 14.7% 6.5% .288 4.81 4.80 114 112
Tim Adleman 111.7 488 16.8% 7.6% .285 4.76 4.97 113 116
Michael Lorenzen 62.3 265 22.3% 7.5% .291 3.75 4.17 89 97
Jumbo Diaz 63.7 272 23.5% 8.8% .277 3.82 4.14 91 96
Blake Wood 55.7 241 26.6% 10.8% .296 3.88 3.85 92 90
Alejandro Chacin 62.0 274 24.1% 11.7% .295 3.92 4.07 93 95
Amir Garrett 123.3 559 19.7% 12.2% .289 4.96 5.10 118 119
Nick Routt 65.0 287 18.5% 10.1% .287 4.15 4.43 99 103
Deunte Heath 45.0 191 28.8% 8.9% .287 4.20 4.25 100 99
Ross Ohlendorf 57.3 250 24.4% 10.0% .291 4.24 4.51 101 105
Pedro Villarreal 42.3 183 16.9% 6.6% .288 4.25 4.49 101 104
Sal Romano 137.7 607 17.0% 7.6% .294 5.10 4.90 121 114
Rob W00t3n 63.3 269 21.9% 5.9% .289 4.55 4.39 108 102
Nick Travieso 128.7 578 15.1% 9.5% .287 5.18 5.32 123 124
Louis Coleman 58.3 257 22.6% 10.5% .288 4.47 4.64 106 108
Tony Cingrani 51.7 233 21.9% 13.3% .289 4.53 4.64 107 108
Wandy Peralta 73.7 330 17.6% 10.9% .291 4.52 4.69 107 109
Rookie Davis 123.3 548 15.7% 7.5% .293 5.25 5.25 125 122
Caleb Cotham 39.3 173 22.0% 8.7% .304 4.81 4.46 114 104
Robert Stephenson 122.3 565 22.7% 14.9% .286 5.30 5.56 126 129
A.J. Morris 60.0 271 17.7% 10.7% .287 5.25 5.35 125 125
Austin Brice 110.7 501 19.2% 11.0% .293 5.29 5.36 125 125
Evan Mitchell 53.7 241 16.2% 10.4% .287 4.86 4.94 115 115
Keury Mella 113.7 518 15.3% 10.0% .296 5.38 5.41 128 126
Drew Hayes 64.7 295 19.0% 12.5% .293 4.87 4.83 116 112
Jefri Hernandez 39.7 183 19.7% 13.7% .296 5.22 5.05 124 118
Kevin Shackelford 48.0 217 13.8% 9.7% .293 5.06 4.94 120 115
Alfredo Simon 114.0 513 14.6% 8.8% .294 5.45 5.27 129 123
Barrett Astin 108.3 479 18.0% 8.6% .285 5.40 5.27 128 123
Lucas Luetge 56.0 251 19.9% 11.2% .286 5.14 5.10 122 119
Jon Moscot 94.3 423 14.7% 8.5% .284 5.63 5.59 134 130
Tim Melville 82.0 388 14.9% 12.4% .290 6.70 6.69 159 156
Geoff Broussard 61.0 277 18.8% 9.4% .293 6.49 6.10 154 142

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Anthony DeSclafani 171.7 7.71 2.31 1.21 103 2.6 Esteban Loaiza
Brandon Finnegan 151.3 8.21 3.45 1.37 95 1.6 Paul Maholm
Cody Reed 133.3 8.44 2.97 1.49 91 1.2 Scott Taylor
Jackson Stephens 144.0 7.00 2.75 1.19 89 1.1 Cha-Seung Baek
Raisel Iglesias 65.0 10.11 2.91 0.97 131 1.0 Jeff Montgomery
Tyler Mahle 141.3 7.32 2.55 1.53 86 0.8 J.D. Smart
Homer Bailey 88.0 7.67 2.76 1.23 89 0.6 Wally Whitehurst
Luis Castillo 112.3 6.81 2.96 1.36 86 0.5 Thomas Biko
Drew Storen 55.7 8.89 2.43 0.97 112 0.5 Sergio Valdez
Scott Feldman 129.0 5.79 2.58 1.40 83 0.4 Bill Lee
Tim Adleman 111.7 6.61 2.98 1.45 84 0.4 Buck Ross
Michael Lorenzen 62.3 8.52 2.89 1.16 106 0.4 Danny Graves
Jumbo Diaz 63.7 9.05 3.39 1.27 105 0.3 Mike Fyhrie
Blake Wood 55.7 10.35 4.20 0.97 103 0.2 Todd Jones
Alejandro Chacin 62.0 9.58 4.65 1.02 102 0.2 Wayne Nix
Amir Garrett 123.3 8.03 4.96 1.31 81 0.2 Chris Mobley
Nick Routt 65.0 7.34 4.02 0.97 96 0.1 Marcelino Lopez
Deunte Heath 45.0 11.00 3.40 1.60 95 0.0 Rich Croushore
Ross Ohlendorf 57.3 9.58 3.92 1.41 94 0.0 Rich DeLucia
Pedro Villarreal 42.3 6.59 2.55 1.28 94 0.0 Harry Dorish
Sal Romano 137.7 6.73 3.01 1.44 78 0.0 Peter Bauer
Rob W00t3n 63.3 8.38 2.27 1.56 88 0.0 Er1c M00dy
Nick Travieso 128.7 6.09 3.85 1.40 77 -0.2 Chuck McGrath
Louis Coleman 58.3 8.95 4.17 1.39 89 -0.2 Dwight Bernard
Tony Cingrani 51.7 8.88 5.40 1.05 88 -0.2 Chris Marchok
Wandy Peralta 73.7 7.09 4.40 0.98 88 -0.3 Philip Barzilla
Rookie Davis 123.3 6.28 2.99 1.61 76 -0.3 Jeff Farnsworth
Caleb Cotham 39.3 8.69 3.43 1.37 83 -0.3 Mike Gardiner
Robert Stephenson 122.3 9.42 6.18 1.54 75 -0.3 Miguel Jimenez
A.J. Morris 60.0 7.20 4.35 1.50 76 -0.4 Marty McLeary
Austin Brice 110.7 7.81 4.47 1.55 76 -0.4 Ramon Manon
Evan Mitchell 53.7 6.54 4.19 1.17 82 -0.4 Casey Daigle
Keury Mella 113.7 6.26 4.12 1.43 74 -0.4 Jeff Bumgarner
Drew Hayes 64.7 7.79 5.15 1.11 82 -0.4 Jake Robbins
Jefri Hernandez 39.7 8.17 5.67 1.13 77 -0.5 Ken Wright
Kevin Shackelford 48.0 5.63 3.94 1.13 79 -0.5 Ed Sprague
Alfredo Simon 114.0 5.92 3.55 1.42 73 -0.6 Aaron Sele
Barrett Astin 108.3 7.14 3.41 1.66 74 -0.6 Chris Mears
Lucas Luetge 56.0 8.04 4.50 1.45 78 -0.7 Eddie Oropesa
Jon Moscot 94.3 5.92 3.43 1.72 71 -0.7 Brian Ahern
Tim Melville 82.0 6.37 5.27 2.09 60 -1.7 Dave Rozema
Geoff Broussard 61.0 7.67 3.84 2.21 62 -1.8 Ivan Maldonado

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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