2017 ZiPS Projections – Cleveland Indians

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Indians. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Chicago NL / Detroit / Houston / San Diego / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Despite having just completed only his age-22 season, shortstop Francisco Lindor (681 PA, 5.9 zWAR) has become pretty decisively not only the strongest of Cleveland’s field players, but among the strongest in the league. A brief examination of the nine clubs for whom a ZiPS projection has been published here reveals that only three batters — Kris Bryant (672, 6.9), Carlos Correa (682, 6.5), and Josh Donaldson (657, 7.0) — have received a more promising forecast for 2017.

If one takes for granted that every WAR projection possesses an implied error bar, then it stands to reason that Michael Brantley‘s projection (339, 1.6) features a larger error bar than most. ZiPS, the product of an algorithm on Dan Szymborski’s computer, does not account for the precise nature of Brantley’s injuries over the past couple years. What it does account for, however, is that Brantley recorded only 43 plate appearances in 2016. That both (a) suppresses his playing-time projection for 2017 and (b) creates uncertainty in general.

Pitchers
For however often it’s already been acknowledged, it’s probably fair to acknowledge once again the improbability of this Cleveland team advancing to Game Seven of the World Series in the absence of Carlos Carrasco (161.0 IP, 3.7 zWAR) and Danny Salazar (164.1, 3.4). As the projections here underscore, those guys are really good. For a club with Cleveland’s relatively modest resources to lose pitchers of their stature would typically seem like a death knell. Corey Kluber (208.2, 5.4), the ace of the staff, receives a rare forecast for 200 innings.

Unsurprisingly, Cleveland’s bullpen receives here the top WAR forecast among the nine clubs addressed thus far in this series. Also unsurprisingly, Cody Allen (67.0, 1.1) and, in particular, Andrew Miller (62.0, 1.9) are responsible for the largest portion of that collective, impressive forecast.

Bench/Prospects
While omitted from the depth-chart image below, Abraham Almonte (412 PA, 0.8 zWAR) is likely — unless the roster is altered significantly between now and Opening Day — to play a substantive role with the club, maybe in some sort of timeshare with Tyler Naquin (442, 1.2) or even as a starting left fielder. Among the organization’s prospects, outfielder Bradley Zimmer (524, 1.6) is one of the most celerated — and the most well equipped for the major leagues, according to ZiPS. Yandy Diaz (510, 1.1) isn’t celebrated much at all, but is nearly as well equipped.

Absent from the depth chart, right-hander Mike Clevinger (134.2 IP, 0.8 zWAR) represents useful rotation depth at the moment — as might left-hander Tim Cooney (95.0, 0.8), claimed off waivers from St. Louis after missing the 2016 season. Finally, ZiPS calls for right-handed reliever Shawn Armstrong (58.2 IP, 82 ERA-) to produce the third-highest strikeout rate among all Cleveland pitchers — and one of the best park-adjusted ERAs, as well.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of Cleveland’s roster, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

cleve-depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Francisco Lindor B 23 SS 681 86 180 31 6 17 80 19 6
Jose Ramirez B 24 3B 616 76 159 37 4 10 63 24 8
Jason Kipnis L 30 2B 630 78 152 35 4 16 67 17 5
Carlos Santana B 31 1B 615 70 128 28 2 25 84 6 2
Michael Brantley L 30 LF 399 49 105 25 1 9 65 11 1
Bradley Zimmer L 24 CF 524 57 106 20 3 15 54 22 9
Yan Gomes R 29 C 363 39 81 18 2 13 50 0 0
Brandon Guyer R 31 LF 355 45 84 19 2 7 34 6 2
Tyler Naquin L 26 CF 442 48 102 18 4 11 41 8 4
Mike Napoli R 35 1B 493 56 98 18 1 22 66 3 2
Yandy Diaz R 25 3B 510 53 117 15 3 8 43 6 4
Rajai Davis R 36 CF 410 54 95 20 4 8 36 28 6
Lonnie Chisenhall L 28 RF 494 52 120 28 3 11 63 5 0
Eric Stamets R 25 SS 408 39 84 16 2 7 33 8 2
Juan Uribe R 38 3B 281 26 61 12 0 9 33 1 0
Abraham Almonte B 28 RF 412 49 95 22 4 7 43 11 3
Giovanny Urshela R 25 3B 490 50 119 23 3 9 50 0 1
Francisco Mejia B 21 C 457 49 100 21 1 12 55 3 2
Roberto Perez R 28 C 244 25 42 10 1 5 24 0 0
Jesus Aguilar R 27 1B 568 63 127 25 0 23 77 0 0
Greg Allen B 24 CF 529 60 115 19 4 6 40 28 12
Erik Gonzalez R 25 SS 531 52 123 24 4 10 51 11 7
Marlon Byrd R 39 RF 265 27 60 13 2 11 40 1 0
Eric Haase R 24 C 333 34 61 15 3 12 39 1 3
Adam Moore R 33 C 315 30 66 13 0 7 28 0 0
Jeremy Lucas R 26 C 368 38 74 16 1 9 37 1 2
Yu-Cheng Chang R 21 SS 487 51 96 21 4 14 54 6 5
Chris Gimenez R 34 C 260 27 51 9 1 6 21 1 1
Mark Mathias R 22 2B 454 44 95 25 1 5 39 6 3
Guillermo Quiroz R 35 C 202 19 43 9 0 5 20 0 0
Bobby Bradley L 21 1B 540 66 100 16 1 32 82 3 0
Collin Cowgill R 31 CF 300 30 60 11 1 4 20 4 1
Coco Crisp B 37 LF 331 37 71 19 3 7 37 6 3
Bryson Myles R 27 LF 325 33 62 13 2 9 32 10 5
Erik Kratz R 37 C 188 16 32 8 0 4 15 0 0
Michael Choice R 27 LF 411 43 82 16 1 15 48 1 1
Joey Butler R 31 LF 379 39 81 14 1 9 35 2 1
Michael Martinez B 34 2B 308 31 67 11 2 3 23 4 4
Dan Robertson R 31 RF 394 40 92 16 3 3 35 8 3
Mike Papi L 24 LF 496 48 87 22 1 11 45 4 3
Todd Hankins R 26 2B 468 40 84 14 3 8 38 14 6

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Francisco Lindor 681 7.8% 13.4% .156 .320 .298 .351 .454 .347
Jose Ramirez 616 7.1% 10.6% .134 .306 .285 .338 .419 .336
Jason Kipnis 630 8.9% 19.7% .163 .320 .272 .340 .435 .339
Carlos Santana 615 15.3% 17.9% .207 .268 .249 .364 .456 .356
Michael Brantley 399 8.3% 9.3% .151 .303 .292 .353 .443 .345
Bradley Zimmer 524 9.0% 35.7% .153 .343 .227 .310 .380 .316
Yan Gomes 363 4.4% 24.8% .180 .283 .239 .278 .419 .295
Brandon Guyer 355 5.6% 16.6% .142 .316 .272 .358 .414 .343
Tyler Naquin 442 7.9% 29.6% .149 .351 .256 .320 .405 .316
Mike Napoli 493 12.4% 29.2% .202 .290 .231 .331 .433 .331
Yandy Diaz 510 10.2% 18.8% .100 .311 .260 .337 .360 .312
Rajai Davis 410 5.4% 20.5% .137 .299 .249 .296 .386 .314
Lonnie Chisenhall 494 6.1% 19.8% .149 .313 .265 .314 .414 .309
Eric Stamets 408 4.7% 23.3% .111 .281 .226 .274 .337 .268
Juan Uribe 281 6.4% 20.3% .150 .267 .236 .288 .386 .288
Abraham Almonte 412 7.3% 22.8% .136 .319 .254 .309 .390 .307
Giovanny Urshela 490 3.7% 15.7% .121 .287 .255 .284 .376 .285
Francisco Mejia 457 5.0% 21.7% .138 .278 .235 .279 .373 .281
Roberto Perez 244 12.3% 27.5% .132 .274 .205 .307 .337 .280
Jesus Aguilar 568 7.2% 24.5% .182 .288 .245 .303 .427 .310
Greg Allen 529 5.9% 17.2% .095 .288 .243 .311 .338 .304
Erik Gonzalez 531 3.6% 23.9% .124 .308 .245 .276 .369 .283
Marlon Byrd 265 5.7% 29.1% .203 .304 .244 .287 .447 .309
Eric Haase 333 6.0% 40.5% .185 .302 .198 .253 .383 .277
Adam Moore 315 6.0% 29.2% .116 .301 .224 .273 .340 .266
Jeremy Lucas 368 7.9% 24.7% .136 .279 .224 .292 .360 .287
Yu-Cheng Chang 487 5.7% 31.4% .159 .289 .215 .265 .374 .279
Chris Gimenez 260 7.7% 25.8% .124 .278 .218 .284 .342 .275
Mark Mathias 454 6.8% 22.2% .102 .291 .231 .294 .333 .281
Guillermo Quiroz 202 4.0% 26.2% .126 .286 .228 .264 .354 .266
Bobby Bradley 540 8.9% 42.2% .235 .300 .207 .283 .442 .305
Collin Cowgill 300 7.0% 25.0% .093 .290 .221 .286 .314 .268
Coco Crisp 331 8.5% 16.9% .153 .269 .237 .301 .390 .303
Bryson Myles 325 7.1% 32.6% .150 .294 .212 .281 .362 .292
Erik Kratz 188 5.3% 31.9% .115 .252 .184 .235 .299 .234
Michael Choice 411 6.6% 31.6% .169 .290 .220 .285 .389 .293
Joey Butler 379 7.9% 28.5% .125 .316 .235 .302 .360 .291
Michael Martinez 308 5.2% 20.5% .084 .288 .234 .275 .318 .263
Dan Robertson 394 6.6% 12.4% .086 .287 .256 .309 .342 .292
Mike Papi 496 11.1% 32.1% .130 .284 .200 .291 .330 .280
Todd Hankins 468 5.3% 34.8% .102 .288 .194 .244 .296 .247

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Francisco Lindor 681 6.3 112 9 5.9 Alan Trammell
Jose Ramirez 616 5.5 101 4 3.3 Gregg Jefferies
Jason Kipnis 630 5.6 105 0 3.3 Tony Bernazard
Carlos Santana 615 6.0 117 -1 2.5 Randy Milligan
Michael Brantley 399 6.3 111 -1 1.6 Wally Moses
Bradley Zimmer 524 4.2 83 2 1.6 Lloyd Moseby
Yan Gomes 363 4.1 82 2 1.5 Bob Melvin
Brandon Guyer 355 5.6 105 1 1.4 Barry Bonnell
Tyler Naquin 442 4.7 92 -2 1.2 Dave Martinez
Mike Napoli 493 5.0 102 2 1.2 Cecil Fielder
Yandy Diaz 510 4.4 86 -3 1.1 Russ Johnson
Rajai Davis 410 4.6 80 0 1.1 Shawon Dunston
Lonnie Chisenhall 494 4.9 92 2 1.0 Glenn Wilson
Eric Stamets 408 3.3 62 7 0.9 Nick Ortiz
Juan Uribe 281 4.0 78 5 0.9 Tim Wallach
Abraham Almonte 412 4.5 85 4 0.8 Jermaine Allensworth
Giovanny Urshela 490 3.8 74 4 0.7 Darryl Robinson
Francisco Mejia 457 3.7 72 -3 0.7 Jeff Goldbach
Roberto Perez 244 3.5 72 0 0.7 Chad Kreuter
Jesus Aguilar 568 4.6 92 4 0.7 Nate Gold
Greg Allen 529 3.8 73 0 0.6 Mitch Webster
Erik Gonzalez 531 3.6 70 1 0.6 Juan Melo
Marlon Byrd 265 4.6 92 1 0.4 Russ Morman
Eric Haase 333 3.1 66 -1 0.3 Yohanny Valera
Adam Moore 315 3.2 62 -1 0.3 George Mitterwald
Jeremy Lucas 368 3.6 73 -6 0.2 B.J. Waszgis
Yu-Cheng Chang 487 3.3 68 -1 0.2 Scott Leius
Chris Gimenez 260 3.3 66 -2 0.2 Keith McDonald
Mark Mathias 454 3.4 67 0 0.1 Howie Clark
Guillermo Quiroz 202 3.3 63 -1 0.1 Joe Oliver
Bobby Bradley 540 4.3 89 -1 0.0 Sam Horn
Collin Cowgill 300 3.2 60 2 0.0 Alan Cockrell
Coco Crisp 331 4.2 82 -1 0.0 Mike Kingery
Bryson Myles 325 3.5 70 2 -0.2 Todd Soares
Erik Kratz 188 2.3 41 0 -0.3 Tony Pena
Michael Choice 411 3.8 77 -4 -0.6 Ryan Jones
Joey Butler 379 3.8 76 -4 -0.6 Orsino Hill
Michael Martinez 308 2.9 58 -2 -0.7 Edgar Caceres
Dan Robertson 394 3.9 74 -4 -0.8 Ryan Fleming
Mike Papi 496 3.2 65 -3 -1.2 Billy McMillon
Todd Hankins 468 2.5 43 1 -1.4 Randy Randle

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Corey Kluber R 31 31 31 208.7 229 49 21 181 77 72
Carlos Carrasco R 30 26 26 161.0 178 37 18 144 63 59
Danny Salazar R 27 28 28 164.3 189 56 20 145 68 64
Trevor Bauer R 26 32 28 177.3 171 68 22 170 89 83
Andrew Miller L 32 64 0 62.0 103 14 7 41 14 13
Josh Tomlin R 32 24 22 130.0 101 19 21 138 65 61
Cody Allen R 28 70 0 67.0 93 25 8 52 24 22
Cody Anderson R 26 30 20 115.7 92 31 16 126 61 57
Mike Clevinger R 26 30 25 134.7 126 56 19 137 74 69
Tim Cooney L 26 16 16 95.0 70 25 15 107 50 47
Edwin Escobar L 25 32 16 97.7 74 31 14 107 52 49
Shawn Armstrong R 26 57 0 58.7 78 30 7 49 25 23
Bryan Shaw R 29 74 0 65.0 64 23 8 62 28 26
Zach McAllister R 29 58 0 62.0 68 22 8 60 27 25
Dan Otero R 32 59 0 68.3 49 12 8 72 30 28
Adam Plutko R 25 27 26 141.3 107 42 22 161 82 77
Ryan Merritt L 25 26 24 144.7 89 27 22 170 85 79
Jeff Manship R 32 52 0 51.7 48 20 7 50 24 22
Matt Esparza R 22 23 17 95.7 78 35 15 105 56 52
Kyle Crockett L 25 58 0 49.3 47 16 6 50 24 22
Hoby Milner L 26 43 0 64.0 58 18 9 66 31 29
Joba the Chamberlain R 31 41 0 36.3 36 14 4 35 17 16
Rob Kaminsky L 22 22 22 111.3 72 50 15 126 66 62
Perci Garner R 28 37 0 60.7 54 24 7 63 30 28
Craig Stammen R 33 31 0 41.3 33 11 5 45 20 19
Tyler Olson L 27 29 9 76.3 56 26 11 85 44 41
Cole Sulser R 27 31 11 78.7 64 26 11 87 46 43
Dylan Baker R 25 6 6 27.7 19 13 4 31 17 16
Jeff Johnson R 27 50 0 49.7 49 23 6 49 26 24
Austin D. Adams R 30 48 0 53.3 48 18 7 56 28 26
Shawn Haviland R 31 17 15 83.3 53 27 14 97 51 48
Joseph Colon R 27 33 0 38.0 36 17 5 39 20 19
Josh Martin R 27 46 0 64.3 60 26 9 66 34 32
T.J. House L 27 24 12 68.7 49 32 10 79 43 40
Casey Weathers R 32 26 0 28.0 25 20 4 30 18 17
Felipe Paulino R 33 15 10 57.3 43 31 10 66 39 36
Shawn Morimando L 24 27 26 136.7 107 71 20 153 88 82
Nick Pasquale R 26 30 14 90.7 55 42 12 107 60 56
D.J. Brown R 26 27 16 111.7 79 39 21 134 78 73
Michael Peoples R 25 25 23 123.7 71 60 19 150 87 81

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Corey Kluber 208.7 856 26.7% 5.7% .291 3.11 3.01 72 71
Carlos Carrasco 161.0 664 26.8% 5.6% .295 3.30 3.08 77 72
Danny Salazar 164.3 694 27.2% 8.1% .295 3.51 3.47 82 82
Trevor Bauer 177.3 770 22.2% 8.8% .295 4.21 4.04 98 95
Andrew Miller 62.0 241 42.7% 5.8% .298 1.89 2.03 44 48
Josh Tomlin 130.0 547 18.5% 3.5% .290 4.22 4.11 98 97
Cody Allen 67.0 278 33.5% 9.0% .291 2.96 2.91 69 69
Cody Anderson 115.7 504 18.3% 6.1% .305 4.44 4.17 103 98
Mike Clevinger 134.7 597 21.1% 9.4% .302 4.61 4.43 107 104
Tim Cooney 95.0 417 16.8% 6.0% .305 4.45 4.60 104 108
Edwin Escobar 97.7 431 17.2% 7.2% .304 4.52 4.56 105 107
Shawn Armstrong 58.7 255 30.6% 11.8% .304 3.53 3.53 82 83
Bryan Shaw 65.0 280 22.9% 8.2% .293 3.60 3.71 84 87
Zach McAllister 62.0 268 25.4% 8.2% .310 3.63 3.61 85 85
Dan Otero 68.3 289 17.0% 4.2% .292 3.69 3.63 86 85
Adam Plutko 141.3 627 17.1% 6.7% .310 4.90 4.68 114 110
Ryan Merritt 144.7 631 14.1% 4.3% .304 4.91 4.56 114 107
Jeff Manship 51.7 225 21.3% 8.9% .288 3.83 4.17 89 98
Matt Esparza 95.7 427 18.3% 8.2% .307 4.89 4.80 114 113
Kyle Crockett 49.3 214 22.0% 7.5% .308 4.01 3.69 93 87
Hoby Milner 64.0 276 21.0% 6.5% .305 4.08 4.11 95 97
Joba the Chamberlain 36.3 158 22.8% 8.9% .301 3.96 3.63 92 85
Rob Kaminsky 111.3 510 14.1% 9.8% .303 5.01 5.07 117 119
Perci Garner 60.7 269 20.1% 8.9% .311 4.15 4.16 97 98
Craig Stammen 41.3 180 18.3% 6.1% .310 4.14 3.95 96 93
Tyler Olson 76.3 340 16.5% 7.6% .305 4.83 4.57 113 108
Cole Sulser 78.7 349 18.3% 7.4% .311 4.92 4.40 115 104
Dylan Baker 27.7 127 14.9% 10.2% .303 5.20 5.24 121 123
Jeff Johnson 49.7 221 22.2% 10.4% .307 4.35 4.15 101 98
Austin D. Adams 53.3 234 20.5% 7.7% .308 4.39 4.08 102 96
Shawn Haviland 83.3 374 14.2% 7.2% .302 5.18 5.14 121 121
Joseph Colon 38.0 170 21.2% 10.0% .309 4.50 4.34 105 102
Josh Martin 64.3 285 21.1% 9.1% .305 4.48 4.41 104 104
T.J. House 68.7 317 15.5% 10.1% .312 5.24 5.14 122 121
Casey Weathers 28.0 134 18.7% 14.9% .313 5.46 5.43 127 128
Felipe Paulino 57.3 269 16.0% 11.5% .308 5.65 5.65 132 133
Shawn Morimando 136.7 634 16.9% 11.2% .311 5.40 5.18 126 122
Nick Pasquale 90.7 421 13.1% 10.0% .309 5.56 5.13 130 121
D.J. Brown 111.7 508 15.5% 7.7% .311 5.88 5.34 137 126
Michael Peoples 123.7 581 12.2% 10.3% .309 5.89 5.58 137 131

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Corey Kluber 208.7 9.88 2.11 0.91 129 5.4 Bob Welch
Carlos Carrasco 161.0 9.95 2.07 1.01 122 3.7 Kelvim Escobar
Danny Salazar 164.3 10.35 3.07 1.10 114 3.4 Tim Belcher
Trevor Bauer 177.3 8.68 3.45 1.12 95 2.0 Matt Clement
Andrew Miller 62.0 14.95 2.03 1.02 212 1.9 Arthur Rhodes
Josh Tomlin 130.0 6.99 1.32 1.45 95 1.4 Dick Bosman
Cody Allen 67.0 12.49 3.36 1.07 136 1.1 Bryan Harvey
Cody Anderson 115.7 7.16 2.41 1.24 90 0.9 Steve Lemke
Mike Clevinger 134.7 8.42 3.74 1.27 87 0.8 Greg Mayberry
Tim Cooney 95.0 6.63 2.37 1.42 90 0.8 Eric Knott
Edwin Escobar 97.7 6.82 2.86 1.29 89 0.6 Mark Watson
Shawn Armstrong 58.7 11.96 4.60 1.07 114 0.5 Ryan Bukvich
Bryan Shaw 65.0 8.86 3.18 1.11 111 0.5 John Costello
Zach McAllister 62.0 9.87 3.19 1.16 110 0.5 Hector Carrasco
Dan Otero 68.3 6.46 1.58 1.05 109 0.5 Dick Coffman
Adam Plutko 141.3 6.82 2.68 1.40 82 0.3 Luis Mendoza
Ryan Merritt 144.7 5.54 1.68 1.37 82 0.3 Evan MacLane
Jeff Manship 51.7 8.36 3.48 1.22 105 0.3 Matt Karchner
Matt Esparza 95.7 7.34 3.29 1.41 82 0.2 Shad Williams
Kyle Crockett 49.3 8.58 2.92 1.10 100 0.1 Kevin Saucier
Hoby Milner 64.0 8.16 2.53 1.27 98 0.1 Mark Sims
Joba the Chamberlain 36.3 8.93 3.47 0.99 101 0.1 Ken Ryan
Rob Kaminsky 111.3 5.82 4.04 1.21 80 0.1 Wade Blasingame
Perci Garner 60.7 8.01 3.56 1.04 97 0.1 Mike Gardner
Craig Stammen 41.3 7.19 2.40 1.09 97 0.1 Chuck Crim
Tyler Olson 76.3 6.61 3.07 1.30 83 0.0 Doug Johns
Cole Sulser 78.7 7.32 2.97 1.26 81 0.0 Andy Ashby
Dylan Baker 27.7 6.17 4.22 1.30 77 0.0 Craig Swan
Jeff Johnson 49.7 8.87 4.16 1.09 92 -0.1 Marc Pisciotta
Austin D. Adams 53.3 8.11 3.04 1.18 91 -0.1 Brian Edmondson
Shawn Haviland 83.3 5.73 2.92 1.51 77 -0.1 Bob Milacki
Joseph Colon 38.0 8.53 4.03 1.18 89 -0.1 Keith Shepherd
Josh Martin 64.3 8.40 3.64 1.26 90 -0.2 Paul Wilmet
T.J. House 68.7 6.42 4.19 1.31 76 -0.2 Jimmy Williams
Casey Weathers 28.0 8.04 6.43 1.29 73 -0.4 Moe Burtschy
Felipe Paulino 57.3 6.75 4.87 1.57 71 -0.5 Alan Benes
Shawn Morimando 136.7 7.04 4.67 1.32 74 -0.6 Mark Williams
Nick Pasquale 90.7 5.46 4.17 1.19 72 -0.7 Ben Ford
D.J. Brown 111.7 6.37 3.14 1.69 68 -1.3 William Cooper
Michael Peoples 123.7 5.17 4.37 1.38 68 -1.3 Jim Hunter

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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