2017 ZiPS Projections – Colorado Rockies

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Colorado Rockies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / Oakland / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Colorado field players produced slightly fewer wins than the average unit in 2016. The numbers here suggest that, given reasonable health, that same group ought to rate as something slightly better than average in 2017. Unsurprisingly, Nolan Arenado (646 PA, 4.7 zWAR) receives the club’s top wins projection. ZiPS calls for Arenado not only to produce the top batting line on the team (.374 wOBA), but also — after accounting for the third-base positional adjustment — to produce more than a win with his glove.

Of some interest here is the projection for Ian Desmond (639, 1.7). He’s forecast to record +6 runs at first base, a position he’s played zero times as a professional. Of course, one would expect a former shortstop to handle first base with some ease; however, those curious about Szymborski’ methodology should definitely, definitely, definitely contact him definitely at @DSzymborski.

Finally, a brief examination of things reveals that Colorado employs not one, but two, Gerardo Parras: Parra himself and also Raimel Tapia. Tapia’s No. 1 comp is the 23-year-old version of Parra.

Pitchers
Since 2011, only two Colorado starters have produced a three-win season: Jhoulys Chacin in 2013 and Jon Gray this past year. Szymborski’s computer indicates that two starters, Gray (155.0 IP, 3.2 zWAR) and Chad Bettis (167.1, 3.2), might cross that particular threshold in 2017 alone. Including both Tyler Anderson (113.2, 2.3) and Jeff Hoffman (132.1, 2.3), the Rockies feature four starters projected to surpass the two-win mark. It’s not an elite group, but — like the offense — profiles to be slightly above average given adequate health.

As for the bullpen, Adam Ottavino (42.3 IP, 78 ERA-, 0.6 zWAR) appears likely to enter the season as the team’s closer, although both Greg Holland (35.1, 72, 0.6) and Jake McGee (50.0, 73, 0.8) actually receive stronger per-inning run-prevention marks.

Bench/Prospects
The aforementioned Tapia (631 PA, 1.6 zWAR) receives the top WAR projection among all those players omitted from the depth chart below. ZiPS calls for him to record a strikeout rate that more resembles the 10.8% mark he produced last year in the minors than the 26.8% mark he recorded in a brief major-league stint last year.

With regard to the pitching staff, right-hander German Marquez (155.1 IP, 1.9 zWAR) appears as though he could immediately provide league-average value if called upon. Marquez made six appearances in the majors last season, three in a starting capacity and three in relief. Chris Rusin (119.2, 1.5) pitched well for the club last year, also in a mixed role. His projection also points to major-league competence.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rockies, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Nolan Arenado R 26 3B 646 85 171 38 5 38 110 2 3
Charlie Blackmon L 30 CF 636 81 172 31 6 25 68 24 10
Trevor Story R 24 SS 520 64 122 28 6 26 77 14 4
Carlos Gonzalez L 31 RF 544 69 141 29 3 28 83 7 2
David Dahl L 23 LF 531 66 140 27 5 23 71 18 7
DJ LeMahieu R 28 2B 620 73 167 25 6 9 57 18 7
Ian Desmond R 31 1B 639 86 165 28 3 25 99 21 6
Raimel Tapia L 23 CF 631 66 175 26 8 12 61 24 15
Dustin Garneau R 29 C 327 34 75 17 1 10 39 3 2
Mark Reynolds R 33 1B 410 45 90 17 1 20 53 2 2
Tom Murphy R 26 C 350 41 80 18 3 13 52 3 2
Cristhian Adames B 25 SS 443 41 107 15 4 6 36 8 7
Nick Hundley R 33 C 317 29 79 16 2 9 40 2 2
Tony Wolters L 25 C 292 27 63 12 2 3 26 3 2
Chris Denorfia R 36 LF 235 28 58 10 1 5 24 3 1
Jordan Patterson L 25 RF 501 52 114 23 4 14 52 12 6
Gerardo Parra L 30 LF 503 61 131 28 4 10 47 9 5
Dom Nunez L 22 C 454 45 96 15 1 12 46 7 5
Pat Valaika R 24 SS 565 52 129 28 4 12 57 13 10
Mike Tauchman L 26 CF 462 42 114 18 5 2 34 18 9
Noel Cuevas R 25 CF 440 40 104 16 5 6 40 14 9
Joey Wong L 29 SS 291 22 62 13 2 1 19 3 2
Daniel Castro R 24 SS 477 51 121 19 2 5 47 4 4
Jan Vazquez B 26 C 221 20 43 8 1 3 17 3 3
Wes Rogers R 23 CF 500 46 111 17 5 5 37 35 9
Daniel Descalso L 30 SS 255 28 56 11 1 5 28 2 2
Ryan Raburn R 36 LF 216 23 47 10 1 8 31 0 0
Maxx Tissenbaum L 25 C 229 24 55 9 1 2 18 1 0
Tim Smalling R 29 3B 308 27 71 10 1 4 24 3 4
Ryan McMahon L 22 1B 552 54 119 27 4 17 64 9 11
Jeff Bianchi R 30 2B 209 17 48 5 1 2 16 2 2
Chris Nelson R 31 3B 284 28 68 12 2 5 31 2 1
Derrik Gibson R 27 3B 385 41 88 13 3 2 29 8 4
Wilson Soriano R 25 3B 217 17 55 4 1 0 13 13 9
Omar Carrizales L 22 CF 513 50 130 15 7 8 43 20 13
Stephen Cardullo R 29 LF 507 48 117 24 3 14 55 5 6
Alexi Amarista L 28 2B 328 32 77 10 2 4 36 9 2
Rafael Ynoa B 29 2B 487 43 117 25 3 3 35 7 5
Forrest Wall L 21 2B 510 47 118 15 5 9 46 20 15
Cesar Galvez B 25 2B 171 13 41 3 0 0 8 10 10
Juan Ciriaco R 33 2B 207 22 49 10 1 4 21 7 2
Ashley Graeter R 27 2B 278 24 61 10 1 5 24 5 4
Rosell Herrera B 24 LF 466 41 108 15 3 5 37 18 10
Will Swanner R 25 1B 270 25 51 10 0 10 28 4 5
Dillon Thomas L 24 RF 398 31 83 21 2 5 32 12 9

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Nolan Arenado 646 7.3% 14.9% .276 .289 .291 .343 .567 .374
Charlie Blackmon 636 6.0% 15.7% .204 .322 .298 .351 .502 .372
Trevor Story 520 7.9% 29.8% .252 .330 .260 .326 .512 .358
Carlos Gonzalez 544 7.9% 23.0% .239 .326 .284 .340 .523 .363
David Dahl 531 6.6% 26.4% .215 .355 .285 .333 .500 .364
DJ LeMahieu 620 8.2% 15.3% .115 .346 .300 .359 .415 .340
Ian Desmond 639 6.7% 23.5% .185 .337 .281 .333 .466 .352
Raimel Tapia 631 3.6% 14.9% .132 .329 .295 .322 .427 .334
Dustin Garneau 327 6.4% 18.7% .165 .284 .253 .310 .418 .315
Mark Reynolds 410 10.2% 26.3% .218 .297 .249 .332 .467 .342
Tom Murphy 350 5.7% 30.3% .193 .322 .245 .294 .439 .315
Cristhian Adames 443 6.5% 16.7% .102 .313 .267 .320 .369 .305
Nick Hundley 317 6.3% 21.1% .160 .320 .270 .316 .430 .319
Tony Wolters 292 7.5% 25.0% .095 .317 .240 .301 .335 .280
Chris Denorfia 235 6.4% 19.1% .124 .315 .267 .316 .392 .308
Jordan Patterson 501 6.2% 27.1% .162 .328 .253 .317 .415 .324
Gerardo Parra 503 4.6% 16.5% .140 .318 .278 .314 .418 .316
Dom Nunez 454 8.1% 20.3% .130 .273 .235 .298 .365 .292
Pat Valaika 565 4.4% 26.4% .137 .316 .245 .281 .382 .293
Mike Tauchman 462 6.7% 16.9% .080 .324 .269 .320 .349 .306
Noel Cuevas 440 4.1% 22.3% .108 .319 .255 .291 .363 .292
Joey Wong 291 7.6% 19.6% .077 .299 .238 .301 .315 .274
Daniel Castro 477 3.6% 11.7% .085 .297 .270 .296 .355 .282
Jan Vazquez 221 7.7% 27.1% .097 .301 .221 .298 .318 .277
Wes Rogers 500 7.4% 20.8% .094 .310 .247 .312 .341 .307
Daniel Descalso 255 10.2% 18.8% .125 .295 .250 .328 .375 .303
Ryan Raburn 216 9.3% 25.9% .188 .300 .245 .319 .432 .321
Maxx Tissenbaum 229 5.2% 12.7% .081 .293 .262 .311 .343 .285
Tim Smalling 308 5.2% 17.9% .084 .294 .248 .294 .332 .279
Ryan McMahon 552 7.6% 32.2% .172 .330 .238 .301 .410 .316
Jeff Bianchi 209 6.2% 19.1% .067 .303 .249 .295 .316 .270
Chris Nelson 284 5.3% 19.4% .117 .306 .258 .300 .375 .292
Derrik Gibson 385 8.1% 20.3% .072 .322 .255 .322 .328 .296
Wilson Soriano 217 1.8% 12.9% .029 .307 .267 .286 .296 .281
Omar Carrizales 513 4.5% 19.5% .110 .325 .271 .304 .381 .311
Stephen Cardullo 507 6.1% 17.9% .155 .283 .252 .304 .406 .312
Alexi Amarista 328 6.1% 14.0% .087 .287 .257 .302 .343 .281
Rafael Ynoa 487 6.0% 17.5% .088 .311 .258 .304 .347 .289
Forrest Wall 510 6.7% 21.6% .113 .314 .255 .308 .368 .311
Cesar Galvez 171 5.3% 14.6% .019 .301 .256 .294 .275 .289
Juan Ciriaco 207 4.8% 16.4% .124 .287 .254 .288 .378 .295
Ashley Graeter 278 5.4% 24.1% .105 .301 .238 .286 .344 .283
Rosell Herrera 466 7.3% 21.0% .085 .318 .254 .310 .339 .299
Will Swanner 270 7.8% 39.3% .163 .313 .207 .271 .370 .288
Dillon Thomas 398 4.8% 32.7% .109 .332 .226 .273 .334 .279

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Nolan Arenado 646 7.3 126 10 4.7 Matt Williams
Charlie Blackmon 636 6.9 114 -3 3.4 Ken Landreaux
Trevor Story 520 6.2 109 -1 2.5 Ian Stewart
Carlos Gonzalez 544 6.8 115 0 2.3 Richard Hidalgo
David Dahl 531 6.4 108 6 2.2 Candy Maldonado
DJ LeMahieu 620 5.8 97 3 2.1 Pete Runnels
Ian Desmond 639 6.0 101 6 1.7 Gary Matthews
Raimel Tapia 631 5.1 89 7 1.6 Gerardo Parra
Dustin Garneau 327 4.6 83 0 0.8 Bob Melvin
Mark Reynolds 410 5.5 100 1 0.6 Graham Koonce
Tom Murphy 350 4.6 83 -3 0.6 Bob Geren
Cristhian Adames 443 4.2 75 2 0.5 Ozzie Chavez
Nick Hundley 317 5.0 88 -6 0.4 Randy Knorr
Tony Wolters 292 3.5 62 3 0.3 Joe Siddall
Chris Denorfia 235 4.6 79 4 0.2 Gary Ward
Jordan Patterson 501 4.7 84 2 0.2 Chris Wakeland
Gerardo Parra 503 4.9 84 2 0.1 Steve Carter
Dom Nunez 454 3.8 68 -2 0.1 John Mizerock
Pat Valaika 565 3.7 67 4 0.1 Edwin Diaz
Mike Tauchman 462 4.1 71 2 0.1 Chris Frey
Noel Cuevas 440 3.7 65 7 0.1 Tommy Winrow
Joey Wong 291 3.3 57 4 0.1 Pedro Lopez
Daniel Castro 477 3.8 65 3 0.1 Fidel Hernandez
Jan Vazquez 221 3.1 57 2 0.0 Patrick Arlis
Wes Rogers 500 4.2 66 0 0.0 Maiko Loyola
Daniel Descalso 255 4.3 79 -5 -0.2 Mike Moriarty
Ryan Raburn 216 4.9 89 -4 -0.2 Tom Wilson
Maxx Tissenbaum 229 4.0 67 -4 -0.2 Dave Miley
Tim Smalling 308 3.3 59 3 -0.3 Carlo Colombino
Ryan McMahon 552 4.1 79 7 -0.3 Tate Seefried
Jeff Bianchi 209 3.2 56 1 -0.4 Gary Green
Chris Nelson 284 4.1 71 -3 -0.4 Kevin Baez
Derrik Gibson 385 3.8 66 -2 -0.4 Ron Marigny
Wilson Soriano 217 2.9 49 3 -0.4 Chris de la Cruz
Omar Carrizales 513 4.1 73 -3 -0.4 Fredrick Tiburcio
Stephen Cardullo 507 4.3 79 -1 -0.5 Mike Bell
Alexi Amarista 328 3.9 64 -2 -0.5 Donovan Mitchell
Rafael Ynoa 487 3.8 65 -1 -0.6 Jose Olmeda
Forrest Wall 510 3.9 71 -4 -0.6 Demetrish Jenkins
Cesar Galvez 171 2.3 46 0 -0.7 Brian Butterfield
Juan Ciriaco 207 4.1 68 -8 -0.8 Warren Morris
Ashley Graeter 278 3.4 60 -6 -1.0 Randy Blood
Rosell Herrera 466 3.7 65 -1 -1.1 Buck McNabb
Will Swanner 270 3.2 61 -3 -1.3 Alan Rick
Dillon Thomas 398 3.0 54 -3 -1.8 W.H. Auden

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Jon Gray R 25 29 28 155.0 152 53 20 156 77 72
Chad Bettis R 28 29 29 167.3 127 54 21 183 87 81
Jeff Hoffman R 24 26 25 132.3 113 52 20 142 71 66
Tyler Anderson L 27 22 22 113.7 89 39 15 122 58 54
German Marquez R 22 29 26 155.3 117 43 25 179 91 85
Jorge de la Rosa L 36 26 24 134.3 106 60 20 145 77 72
Tyler Chatwood R 27 17 17 91.0 68 38 11 94 46 43
Chris Rusin L 30 28 17 119.7 81 36 17 138 68 64
Jordan Lyles R 26 32 15 97.7 63 39 12 111 57 53
Sam Howard L 24 25 25 135.0 94 51 24 160 86 80
Shane Carle R 25 27 22 128.0 75 34 22 158 80 75
Antonio Senzatela R 22 16 16 81.7 55 27 13 96 49 46
Yency Almonte R 23 25 24 136.0 95 55 25 163 89 83
Carlos D. Hernandez L 30 21 17 95.7 55 19 17 121 60 56
Kyle Freeland L 24 20 20 111.3 65 35 20 138 72 67
Jake McGee L 30 57 0 50.0 50 15 6 49 21 20
Eddie Butler R 26 27 23 133.0 71 50 22 165 88 82
Greg Holland R 31 39 0 35.3 45 19 3 29 15 14
Adam Ottavino R 31 47 0 42.3 48 16 6 39 19 18
Carlos Estevez R 24 64 0 61.7 62 26 7 60 31 29
Boone Logan L 32 56 0 37.3 45 17 5 33 17 16
Matt Flemer R 26 25 19 122.3 66 36 24 154 82 77
Harrison Musgrave L 25 22 21 110.7 77 39 23 133 75 70
Scott Oberg R 27 53 0 52.0 45 23 7 53 27 25
Mike Dunn L 32 61 0 46.7 48 18 7 47 24 22
Yohan Flande L 31 30 17 113.7 69 44 20 138 77 72
Miguel Castro R 22 42 0 43.0 37 18 6 49 22 21
C.C. Lee R 30 38 0 39.3 36 14 5 41 20 19
Jerry Vasto L 25 53 0 54.3 52 27 7 56 30 28
Austin House, M.D. R 26 50 0 59.7 46 25 7 66 33 31
Sam Moll L 25 36 0 45.0 35 17 7 52 25 23
Chad Qualls R 38 46 0 36.0 28 8 6 40 20 19
Rayan Gonzalez R 26 43 0 44.3 36 25 5 48 26 24
Jason Motte R 35 38 0 31.3 24 10 6 35 18 17
Gonzalez Germen R 29 53 0 59.3 52 33 9 62 35 33
Jairo Diaz R 26 48 0 52.0 44 27 8 56 31 29
Nelson Gonzalez R 27 38 0 51.7 41 21 8 58 31 29
Zach Jemiola R 23 25 25 141.3 77 50 30 182 103 96
Pat McCoy L 28 41 0 53.7 37 27 8 62 34 32
D.J. Johnson R 27 40 0 52.7 38 28 7 60 34 32
Evan Grills L 25 21 15 96.0 52 26 19 123 72 67
Matt Pierpont R 26 38 0 55.0 44 22 11 64 36 34
Johendi Jiminian R 24 49 0 60.0 42 29 10 71 40 37
Matt Carasiti R 25 57 0 61.0 51 28 11 70 41 38
Tyler Matzek L 26 31 0 24.3 24 36 4 24 19 18
Luis Ramirez R 24 50 0 49.0 53 36 11 51 35 33

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Jon Gray 155.0 674 22.6% 7.9% .309 4.18 4.06 85 90
Chad Bettis 167.3 739 17.2% 7.3% .305 4.36 4.30 88 96
Jeff Hoffman 132.3 591 19.1% 8.8% .305 4.49 4.74 91 105
Tyler Anderson 113.7 502 17.7% 7.8% .302 4.28 4.47 87 99
German Marquez 155.3 688 17.0% 6.3% .312 4.92 4.78 100 106
Jorge de la Rosa 134.3 608 17.4% 9.9% .300 4.82 4.97 98 110
Tyler Chatwood 91.0 405 16.8% 9.4% .291 4.25 4.58 86 102
Chris Rusin 119.7 533 15.2% 6.8% .307 4.81 4.61 98 102
Jordan Lyles 97.7 443 14.2% 8.8% .307 4.88 4.81 99 107
Sam Howard 135.0 616 15.3% 8.3% .310 5.33 5.42 108 120
Shane Carle 128.0 576 13.0% 5.9% .311 5.27 5.21 107 116
Antonio Senzatela 81.7 368 14.9% 7.3% .310 5.07 5.08 103 113
Yency Almonte 136.0 626 15.2% 8.8% .312 5.49 5.59 112 124
Carlos D. Hernandez 95.7 427 12.9% 4.4% .315 5.27 5.13 107 114
Kyle Freeland 111.3 507 12.8% 6.9% .310 5.42 5.46 110 121
Jake McGee 50.0 214 23.4% 7.0% .305 3.60 3.71 73 82
Eddie Butler 133.0 614 11.6% 8.1% .308 5.55 5.49 113 122
Greg Holland 35.3 154 29.2% 12.3% .299 3.57 3.36 72 74
Adam Ottavino 42.3 182 26.4% 8.8% .300 3.83 3.97 78 88
Carlos Estevez 61.7 271 22.9% 9.6% .308 4.23 3.97 86 88
Boone Logan 37.3 162 27.8% 10.5% .304 3.86 3.88 78 86
Matt Flemer 122.3 557 11.8% 6.5% .307 5.66 5.71 115 127
Harrison Musgrave 110.7 504 15.3% 7.7% .306 5.69 5.72 116 127
Scott Oberg 52.0 232 19.4% 9.9% .299 4.33 4.59 88 102
Mike Dunn 46.7 205 23.3% 8.9% .311 4.24 4.38 86 97
Yohan Flande 113.7 523 13.2% 8.4% .307 5.70 5.53 116 123
Miguel Castro 43.0 196 18.9% 9.2% .323 4.40 4.54 89 101
C.C. Lee 39.3 173 20.8% 8.1% .310 4.35 4.23 88 94
Jerry Vasto 54.3 246 21.1% 11.0% .312 4.64 4.55 94 101
Austin House, M.D. 59.7 270 17.0% 9.3% .312 4.68 4.53 95 100
Sam Moll 45.0 204 17.2% 8.3% .315 4.60 4.92 93 109
Chad Qualls 36.0 156 17.9% 5.1% .301 4.75 4.46 96 99
Rayan Gonzalez 44.3 206 17.5% 12.1% .314 4.87 4.86 99 108
Jason Motte 31.3 139 17.3% 7.2% .296 4.88 5.01 99 111
Gonzalez Germen 59.3 273 19.0% 12.1% .299 5.01 5.02 102 111
Jairo Diaz 52.0 239 18.4% 11.3% .306 5.02 5.17 102 115
Nelson Gonzalez 51.7 234 17.5% 9.0% .311 5.05 4.95 103 110
Zach Jemiola 141.3 656 11.7% 7.6% .310 6.11 6.09 124 135
Pat McCoy 53.7 250 14.8% 10.8% .309 5.37 5.37 109 119
D.J. Johnson 52.7 246 15.4% 11.4% .312 5.47 5.18 111 115
Evan Grills 96.0 437 11.8% 5.9% .310 6.28 5.70 128 127
Matt Pierpont 55.0 251 17.5% 8.8% .312 5.56 5.60 113 124
Johendi Jiminian 60.0 280 15.0% 10.4% .313 5.55 5.60 113 124
Matt Carasiti 61.0 281 18.1% 10.0% .316 5.61 5.38 114 119
Tyler Matzek 24.3 133 18.0% 27.1% .303 6.66 8.16 135 181
Luis Ramirez 49.0 234 22.6% 15.4% .305 6.06 6.27 123 139

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Jon Gray 155.0 8.83 3.08 1.16 112 3.2 Jason Schmidt
Chad Bettis 167.3 6.83 2.90 1.13 108 3.2 Andy Hawkins
Jeff Hoffman 132.3 7.69 3.54 1.36 105 2.3 Doug Jones
Tyler Anderson 113.7 7.05 3.09 1.19 110 2.3 Horacio Ramirez
German Marquez 155.3 6.78 2.49 1.45 95 1.9 Mike Bovee
Jorge de la Rosa 134.3 7.10 4.02 1.34 97 1.8 Johnny Vander Meer
Tyler Chatwood 91.0 6.73 3.76 1.09 110 1.8 Zach Day
Chris Rusin 119.7 6.09 2.71 1.28 98 1.5 Jimmy Anderson
Jordan Lyles 97.7 5.81 3.59 1.11 96 1.1 Don Stanhouse
Sam Howard 135.0 6.27 3.40 1.60 88 1.1 Larry Casian
Shane Carle 128.0 5.27 2.39 1.55 89 1.1 Mike Christopher
Antonio Senzatela 81.7 6.06 2.98 1.43 93 0.9 Doug Potestio
Yency Almonte 136.0 6.29 3.64 1.65 85 0.9 Jay Spurgeon
Carlos D. Hernandez 95.7 5.17 1.79 1.60 89 0.8 Jeff Ballard
Kyle Freeland 111.3 5.25 2.83 1.62 87 0.8 Jason Gooding
Jake McGee 50.0 9.00 2.70 1.08 130 0.8 Chuck McElroy
Eddie Butler 133.0 4.80 3.38 1.49 85 0.7 Brad Knox
Greg Holland 35.3 11.46 4.84 0.76 132 0.6 Ryne Duren
Adam Ottavino 42.3 10.20 3.40 1.28 123 0.6 Marvin Freeman
Carlos Estevez 61.7 9.05 3.79 1.02 111 0.6 John Semprini
Boone Logan 37.3 10.85 4.10 1.21 122 0.5 Marshall Bridges
Matt Flemer 122.3 4.86 2.65 1.77 83 0.5 Andy Ghelfi
Harrison Musgrave 110.7 6.26 3.17 1.87 82 0.5 Bryan Braswell
Scott Oberg 52.0 7.79 3.98 1.21 108 0.4 Marc Pisciotta
Mike Dunn 46.7 9.22 3.53 1.30 111 0.4 Kevin Tolar
Yohan Flande 113.7 5.46 3.48 1.58 82 0.3 Chris Michalak
Miguel Castro 43.0 7.74 3.77 1.26 107 0.3 Mike Hansen
C.C. Lee 39.3 8.24 3.20 1.14 108 0.3 Jason Childers
Jerry Vasto 54.3 8.61 4.47 1.16 101 0.2 Rob Murphy
Austin House, M.D. 59.7 6.94 3.77 1.06 100 0.2 Mike Gardner
Sam Moll 45.0 7.00 3.40 1.40 102 0.2 Eugene Espineli
Chad Qualls 36.0 7.00 2.00 1.50 99 0.1 Dave Pavlas
Rayan Gonzalez 44.3 7.31 5.08 1.02 96 0.1 Steve LaRose
Jason Motte 31.3 6.89 2.87 1.72 96 0.1 Bob Miller
Gonzalez Germen 59.3 7.89 5.01 1.37 94 0.0 Jake Robbins
Jairo Diaz 52.0 7.62 4.67 1.38 94 0.0 Pete Sikaras
Nelson Gonzalez 51.7 7.14 3.66 1.39 93 0.0 John Koronka
Zach Jemiola 141.3 4.90 3.18 1.91 77 -0.1 Mike Redding
Pat McCoy 53.7 6.20 4.53 1.34 87 -0.2 Tom Doyle
D.J. Johnson 52.7 6.49 4.78 1.20 86 -0.2 Mike Zimmerman
Evan Grills 96.0 4.83 2.40 1.82 75 -0.3 Randy Marshall
Matt Pierpont 55.0 7.20 3.60 1.80 84 -0.3 Ivan Maldonado
Johendi Jiminian 60.0 6.30 4.35 1.50 85 -0.3 Sean Green
Matt Carasiti 61.0 7.52 4.13 1.62 84 -0.4 Jared Camp
Tyler Matzek 24.3 8.88 13.32 1.48 70 -0.4 Tom Thurberg
Luis Ramirez 49.0 9.73 6.61 2.02 77 -0.6 Felix Villegas

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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