2017 ZiPS Projections – Detroit Tigers

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Chicago NL / Houston / San Diego / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Since 2009, only three different players have led Detroit batters by WAR: Miguel Cabrera (2009-13), Ian Kinsler (2014, -16), and J.D. Martinez (2015). According to Dan Szymborski’s computer, here are the probable top-three Tigers batters by WAR in 2017: Miguel Cabrera (583 PA, 4.0 zWAR), Ian Kinsler (631, 3.9), and J.D. Martinez (590, 3.1). That is, one finds, the precise same collection of players.

What does that say about a club generally? About this club specifically? Nothing definitive. That said, Detroit has developed a reputation in recent years for placing the majority of their eggs into expensive, aging baskets, and then the remainder of the eggs into whatever baskets happen to be lying around. The construction of the current roster — which pairs some well-compensated veterans like Cabrera and Kinsler with a replacement-level center-field platoon of Tyler Collins (463, 0.0) and JaCoby Jones (458, -0.1) — would appear to carry on that tradition.

Pitchers
Given how he looked in the 2014 season, Justin Verlander‘s 2016 campaign is a real achievement. At 33, he recorded his highest average fastball velocity since 2012 (his age-29 season) and the highest strikeout rate ever. That’s not really how the aging curve is supposed to work. As for 2017, ZiPS calls for an outcome (169.1 IP, 3.5 zWAR) that more closely resembles Verlander’s 2015 campaign — which is to say, something between the lows of his 2014 season and highs of his 2016 one. The remaining members of the rotation all profile as slightly better than average, except for Anibal Sanchez (134.0, 0.9).

The majority of 2016’s bullpen returns in 2017 — which is neither very good nor very bad. Francisco Rodriguez (49.1 IP, 73 ERA-) isn’t merely the nominal closer, but receives the club’s lowest projected ERA by some distance.

Bench/Prospects
Shorstop Dixon Machado (552 PA, 1.5 zWAR) is technically blocked by Jose Iglesias (467, 1.5) but also possesses almost the same exact profile as Iglesias, too, with a little more selectivity and a little less contact. Steven Moya (545, 0.8) features a very different collection of offensive skills than Victor Martinez (507, 0.6), founded much more on power and much less on plate discipline, but ZiPS calls for similar outcomes in this case, too — which is to say, about league-average offense.

Left-hander Matt Boyd (134.2 IP, 1.3 zWAR) appears unlikely to begin the season as a member of Detroit’s rotation at this point, but his projection is more favorable than Sanchez’s. Among relievers, Joe Jimenez (46.1 IP, 87 ERA) is a former undrafted free agent who has never appeared in the majors, but who receives the third-best ERA forecast (behind Rodriguez and Verlander) among Tigers pitchers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Tigers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

tigers-depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Miguel Cabrera R 34 1B 583 73 154 29 1 27 91 1 0
Ian Kinsler R 35 2B 631 90 160 29 5 17 75 11 6
J.D. Martinez R 29 RF 590 75 151 32 3 30 86 4 2
Justin Upton R 29 LF 608 82 139 27 2 29 92 11 4
Nick Castellanos R 25 3B 550 53 135 29 5 17 69 1 2
James McCann R 27 C 434 37 97 17 2 9 47 2 1
Dixon Machado R 25 SS 552 53 120 23 2 6 42 11 4
Jose Iglesias R 27 SS 467 47 113 19 1 4 31 8 5
John Hicks R 27 C 349 37 78 15 1 8 37 5 2
Steven Moya L 25 RF 545 62 125 24 3 28 76 5 2
Miguel An. Gonzalez R 26 C 223 20 48 11 0 3 20 1 1
Jason Krizan L 28 LF 512 50 118 23 3 7 45 5 4
Victor Martinez B 38 DH 507 47 122 19 0 17 73 0 0
Christin Stewart L 23 LF 461 57 95 19 2 16 62 3 2
Erick Aybar B 33 SS 548 57 132 24 2 4 47 9 6
Jarrod Saltalamacchia B 32 C 319 32 55 12 0 11 38 0 0
Mike Gerber L 24 RF 512 54 109 23 4 15 57 7 3
Casey McGehee R 34 3B 485 41 112 21 0 6 45 3 2
Andrew Romine B 31 3B 246 26 52 6 1 2 17 9 2
Jeff McVaney R 27 RF 493 49 104 21 4 7 40 10 6
Grayson Greiner R 24 C 296 25 57 10 1 6 24 1 0
Alex Presley L 31 LF 366 36 82 11 2 6 32 6 5
Austin Green R 27 C 274 25 59 10 1 6 26 0 1
Tyler Collins L 27 LF 463 46 98 14 2 14 50 6 3
Kody Eaves L 23 3B 474 48 90 19 4 11 49 8 7
Argenis Diaz R 30 2B 373 31 80 14 1 2 26 2 3
JaCoby Jones R 25 CF 458 45 88 15 3 12 44 11 6
Jordany Valdespin L 29 2B 315 31 70 10 2 5 28 8 5
Zac Shepherd R 21 3B 492 48 80 18 2 14 49 1 1
Nate Schierholtz L 33 LF 241 24 51 9 1 7 27 2 2
Anthony Gose L 26 CF 508 55 99 15 5 8 35 20 9
Gustavo Nunez B 29 SS 356 32 77 9 2 2 22 10 8
Brett Pirtle B 26 2B 302 26 66 12 1 1 20 4 3
Omar Infante R 35 2B 382 33 86 16 3 3 37 3 2
Pedro Ciriaco R 31 2B 287 24 65 11 1 2 21 8 3
Harold Castro L 23 2B 434 37 96 14 2 4 29 9 9
Connor Harrell R 26 CF 440 40 80 14 1 9 34 5 3
Dominic Ficociello B 25 1B 502 44 98 18 2 7 38 4 4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Miguel Cabrera 583 11.0% 17.8% .220 .330 .301 .379 .521 .368
Ian Kinsler 631 5.9% 13.6% .155 .297 .275 .325 .430 .333
J.D. Martinez 590 8.0% 25.6% .240 .339 .283 .344 .523 .365
Justin Upton 608 9.7% 26.3% .218 .309 .257 .332 .475 .348
Nick Castellanos 550 6.5% 24.0% .179 .326 .267 .316 .446 .326
James McCann 434 4.8% 24.7% .119 .302 .240 .282 .359 .279
Dixon Machado 552 7.4% 16.3% .091 .284 .242 .304 .333 .284
Jose Iglesias 467 5.1% 10.9% .077 .291 .265 .312 .342 .291
John Hicks 349 4.6% 25.5% .125 .302 .239 .277 .364 .281
Steven Moya 545 3.7% 32.1% .220 .303 .240 .270 .460 .310
Miguel An. Gonzalez 223 4.9% 20.2% .098 .283 .234 .277 .332 .266
Jason Krizan 512 7.6% 11.9% .108 .276 .253 .310 .361 .296
Victor Martinez 507 6.9% 13.8% .152 .276 .263 .320 .415 .308
Christin Stewart 461 9.5% 30.2% .175 .311 .234 .319 .409 .320
Erick Aybar 548 5.1% 11.3% .079 .288 .261 .303 .340 .283
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 319 11.9% 35.1% .163 .280 .199 .295 .362 .285
Mike Gerber 512 6.3% 29.1% .161 .301 .231 .283 .392 .293
Casey McGehee 485 7.4% 17.9% .087 .299 .252 .307 .339 .287
Andrew Romine 246 6.1% 20.7% .063 .292 .233 .289 .296 .268
Jeff McVaney 493 6.9% 19.9% .112 .283 .233 .301 .345 .294
Grayson Greiner 296 5.4% 31.4% .109 .287 .207 .254 .316 .247
Alex Presley 366 6.3% 16.9% .098 .280 .243 .294 .341 .284
Austin Green 274 3.3% 23.4% .116 .277 .228 .260 .344 .262
Tyler Collins 463 6.9% 25.5% .141 .284 .231 .287 .372 .292
Kody Eaves 474 6.8% 30.8% .138 .283 .208 .265 .346 .274
Argenis Diaz 373 4.8% 19.8% .063 .285 .229 .268 .292 .250
JaCoby Jones 458 5.9% 35.4% .135 .303 .210 .263 .345 .274
Jordany Valdespin 315 6.3% 15.9% .101 .278 .244 .298 .345 .289
Zac Shepherd 492 8.5% 39.6% .144 .278 .181 .255 .325 .256
Nate Schierholtz 241 4.6% 24.5% .141 .272 .226 .266 .367 .278
Anthony Gose 508 7.5% 32.5% .106 .314 .214 .279 .320 .279
Gustavo Nunez 356 5.6% 18.0% .058 .285 .235 .282 .293 .267
Brett Pirtle 302 5.0% 17.2% .060 .285 .236 .281 .296 .261
Omar Infante 382 3.9% 13.9% .086 .269 .240 .266 .326 .256
Pedro Ciriaco 287 1.7% 19.2% .070 .286 .237 .256 .307 .253
Harold Castro 434 2.5% 18.9% .073 .280 .234 .255 .307 .253
Connor Harrell 440 4.5% 35.5% .105 .292 .197 .253 .302 .251
Dominic Ficociello 502 6.2% 28.3% .093 .287 .211 .265 .304 .255

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Miguel Cabrera 583 7.7 145 1 4.0 Manny Ramirez
Ian Kinsler 631 5.2 106 7 3.9 Ryne Sandberg
J.D. Martinez 590 6.8 134 -8 3.1 Richie Zisk
Justin Upton 608 5.8 119 -1 2.9 Nelson Cruz
Nick Castellanos 550 5.1 107 -9 1.7 Kevin Mitchell
James McCann 434 3.6 75 5 1.7 Henry Blanco
Dixon Machado 552 3.7 76 3 1.5 Danny Bravo
Jose Iglesias 467 3.9 81 3 1.5 Manuel Mayorson
John Hicks 349 3.6 75 5 1.5 Ryan Hubele
Steven Moya 545 4.4 96 -1 0.8 Dave Hudgens
Miguel An. Gonzalez 223 3.2 67 4 0.8 David Duff
Jason Krizan 512 4.0 84 6 0.8 Andre David
Victor Martinez 507 4.9 100 0 0.6 Tony Oliva
Christin Stewart 461 4.6 99 -5 0.6 Randy Bush
Erick Aybar 548 3.7 77 -4 0.6 Denny Doyle
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 319 3.6 80 -5 0.6 Steve Yeager
Mike Gerber 512 3.9 84 4 0.5 Chris Lubanski
Casey McGehee 485 3.7 78 -2 0.5 Manny Trillo
Andrew Romine 246 3.3 62 5 0.5 Chico Ruiz
Jeff McVaney 493 3.6 78 5 0.4 Rick Lisi
Grayson Greiner 296 2.8 56 2 0.3 Alan Probst
Alex Presley 366 3.5 75 6 0.2 Ryan Fleming
Austin Green 274 3.0 65 -2 0.0 Joe Cipolloni
Tyler Collins 463 3.8 80 0 0.0 Luke Allen
Kody Eaves 474 3.0 67 1 0.0 Lance Madsen
Argenis Diaz 373 2.6 55 6 -0.1 Gary Green
JaCoby Jones 458 3.1 66 0 -0.1 Sean Barker
Jordany Valdespin 315 3.6 77 -5 -0.2 Luis Rivas
Zac Shepherd 492 2.7 58 2 -0.3 Troy Cameron
Nate Schierholtz 241 3.3 72 0 -0.3 Dann Howitt
Anthony Gose 508 3.1 65 -3 -0.4 Dave Krynzel
Gustavo Nunez 356 2.7 59 -2 -0.4 Vance McHenry
Brett Pirtle 302 2.9 60 0 -0.4 Wes Carroll
Omar Infante 382 3.1 62 -1 -0.5 Juan Castro
Pedro Ciriaco 287 2.9 54 0 -0.6 Casey Smith
Harold Castro 434 2.5 54 2 -0.8 Abigail Sandoval
Connor Harrell 440 2.5 52 -3 -1.1 Kevin Ham
Dominic Ficociello 502 2.7 57 2 -1.9 Brian Suarez

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Justin Verlander R 34 26 26 169.3 162 45 20 153 74 69
Michael Fulmer R 24 27 27 152.3 131 43 19 149 70 65
Daniel Norris L 24 30 30 153.0 142 58 18 155 75 70
Jordan Zimmermann R 31 25 25 143.3 107 31 19 154 71 66
Matt Boyd L 26 26 25 134.7 111 43 20 141 73 68
Anibal Sanchez R 33 26 22 134.0 114 42 20 138 76 71
Francisco Rodriguez R 35 55 0 49.3 48 15 6 45 18 17
Alex Wilson R 30 60 0 69.7 47 21 8 72 31 29
Tyler Alexander L 22 25 24 125.7 74 26 21 146 75 70
Joe Jimenez R 22 52 0 46.3 56 17 6 41 20 19
Blaine Hardy L 30 61 0 58.0 49 21 6 58 27 25
Kyle Ryan L 25 69 0 68.3 45 25 7 71 33 31
Mike Pelfrey R 33 21 20 109.0 53 37 14 135 66 62
Cesar Ramos L 33 38 6 66.0 47 25 9 72 36 34
Shane Greene R 28 38 15 99.3 80 35 12 107 59 55
Justin Wilson L 29 68 0 58.3 62 21 7 55 29 27
Preston Guilmet R 29 55 0 60.0 55 15 8 60 30 28
Chad Bell L 28 27 16 98.0 72 46 13 107 60 56
Bruce Rondon R 26 51 0 49.0 55 24 6 44 25 23
Artie Lewicki R 25 18 16 89.7 62 30 14 102 56 52
Logan Kensing R 34 44 0 53.3 40 21 5 56 28 26
Ruben Alaniz R 26 46 0 64.0 48 30 7 68 34 32
Angel Nesbitt R 26 50 0 61.3 55 28 8 62 33 31
Jeff Ferrell R 26 27 0 31.0 30 9 5 32 17 16
Mark Lowe R 34 51 0 49.0 48 18 7 49 27 25
Arcenio Leon R 30 43 0 48.3 40 20 6 51 27 25
Drew VerHagen R 26 33 0 42.0 27 18 5 46 24 22
Myles Jaye R 25 26 26 140.7 86 49 23 163 91 85
Warwick Saupold R 27 26 17 99.3 68 46 14 114 64 60
Buck Farmer R 26 30 21 121.0 96 46 22 135 78 73
Sean Donatello R 26 45 0 48.7 31 14 6 56 28 26
Paul Voelker R 24 50 0 54.0 58 26 8 53 31 29
Daniel Stumpf L 26 34 2 54.3 43 20 7 59 33 31
Dustin Molleken R 32 44 3 59.0 52 33 8 62 36 34
A.J. Achter R 28 53 0 71.3 51 25 12 78 42 39
William Cuevas R 26 25 18 114.7 76 53 19 132 77 72
Joshua Turley L 26 24 23 133.7 84 44 25 159 90 84
Austin Kubitza R 25 27 15 95.7 62 53 13 112 65 61
Bobby Parnell R 32 42 0 38.3 24 22 5 44 27 25
Drake Britton L 28 38 3 57.3 28 29 8 68 40 37
Kurt Spomer R 27 48 0 60.3 36 24 9 70 40 37
Thad Weber R 32 23 22 123.3 65 40 24 152 88 82
Adam Ravenelle R 24 41 0 49.0 40 33 8 54 35 33
Tommy Collier R 27 24 24 121.7 69 48 24 150 89 83
Jairo Labourt L 23 28 17 90.3 65 79 13 102 68 64
Sandy Baez R 23 18 18 87.7 52 36 19 110 68 64
Victor Alcantara R 24 27 22 106.7 65 72 18 128 87 81

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Justin Verlander 169.3 706 22.9% 6.4% .281 3.67 3.60 86 85
Michael Fulmer 152.3 649 20.2% 6.6% .291 3.84 4.01 90 94
Daniel Norris 153.0 672 21.1% 8.6% .305 4.12 4.00 97 94
Jordan Zimmermann 143.3 615 17.4% 5.0% .298 4.14 4.07 97 96
Matt Boyd 134.7 588 18.9% 7.3% .297 4.54 4.50 107 106
Anibal Sanchez 134.0 582 19.6% 7.2% .293 4.77 4.33 112 102
Francisco Rodriguez 49.3 208 23.1% 7.2% .281 3.10 3.59 73 85
Alex Wilson 69.7 302 15.6% 7.0% .286 3.75 4.11 88 97
Tyler Alexander 125.7 549 13.5% 4.7% .297 5.01 4.89 118 115
Joe Jimenez 46.3 197 28.4% 8.6% .305 3.69 3.60 87 85
Blaine Hardy 58.0 253 19.4% 8.3% .295 3.88 3.74 91 88
Kyle Ryan 68.3 301 15.0% 8.3% .290 4.08 4.18 96 98
Mike Pelfrey 109.0 499 10.6% 7.4% .311 5.12 4.99 120 117
Cesar Ramos 66.0 295 15.9% 8.5% .297 4.64 4.59 109 108
Shane Greene 99.3 440 18.2% 8.0% .310 4.98 4.24 117 100
Justin Wilson 58.3 251 24.7% 8.4% .302 4.17 3.62 98 85
Preston Guilmet 60.0 255 21.6% 5.9% .299 4.20 3.76 99 88
Chad Bell 98.0 447 16.1% 10.3% .303 5.14 4.86 121 114
Bruce Rondon 49.0 215 25.6% 11.2% .299 4.22 3.98 99 94
Artie Lewicki 89.7 401 15.5% 7.5% .303 5.22 4.92 123 116
Logan Kensing 53.3 237 16.9% 8.9% .302 4.39 4.06 103 96
Ruben Alaniz 64.0 290 16.6% 10.3% .303 4.50 4.53 106 107
Angel Nesbitt 61.3 274 20.1% 10.2% .302 4.55 4.53 107 106
Jeff Ferrell 31.0 134 22.4% 6.7% .303 4.65 4.14 109 97
Mark Lowe 49.0 214 22.4% 8.4% .300 4.59 4.05 108 95
Arcenio Leon 48.3 216 18.5% 9.3% .306 4.66 4.37 110 103
Drew VerHagen 42.0 190 14.2% 9.5% .297 4.71 4.65 111 110
Myles Jaye 140.7 634 13.6% 7.7% .299 5.44 5.20 128 122
Warwick Saupold 99.3 458 14.9% 10.0% .309 5.44 5.14 128 121
Buck Farmer 121.0 544 17.6% 8.5% .303 5.43 5.17 128 122
Sean Donatello 48.7 216 14.3% 6.5% .308 4.81 4.42 113 104
Paul Voelker 54.0 241 24.1% 10.8% .308 4.83 4.38 114 103
Daniel Stumpf 54.3 242 17.8% 8.3% .308 5.13 4.47 121 105
Dustin Molleken 59.0 272 19.1% 12.1% .307 5.19 4.89 122 115
A.J. Achter 71.3 317 16.1% 7.9% .292 4.92 5.00 116 118
William Cuevas 114.7 529 14.4% 10.0% .301 5.65 5.48 133 129
Joshua Turley 133.7 604 13.9% 7.3% .302 5.66 5.42 133 128
Austin Kubitza 95.7 452 13.7% 11.7% .311 5.74 5.43 135 128
Bobby Parnell 38.3 181 13.3% 12.2% .305 5.87 5.35 138 126
Drake Britton 57.3 269 10.4% 10.8% .299 5.81 5.51 137 130
Kurt Spomer 60.3 275 13.1% 8.7% .301 5.52 5.10 130 120
Thad Weber 123.3 562 11.6% 7.1% .301 5.98 5.68 141 134
Adam Ravenelle 49.0 234 17.1% 14.1% .307 6.06 5.80 143 136
Tommy Collier 121.7 563 12.3% 8.5% .304 6.14 5.89 144 139
Jairo Labourt 90.3 452 14.4% 17.5% .308 6.38 6.36 150 150
Sandy Baez 87.7 409 12.7% 8.8% .307 6.57 6.17 155 145
Victor Alcantara 106.7 520 12.5% 13.8% .307 6.83 6.30 161 148

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Justin Verlander 169.3 8.61 2.39 1.06 113 3.5 Orlando Hernandez
Michael Fulmer 152.3 7.74 2.54 1.12 108 2.8 Brad Penny
Daniel Norris 153.0 8.35 3.41 1.06 101 2.3 Paul Maholm
Jordan Zimmermann 143.3 6.72 1.95 1.19 100 2.1 Ismael Valdez
Matt Boyd 134.7 7.42 2.87 1.34 91 1.3 Horacio Estrada
Anibal Sanchez 134.0 7.66 2.82 1.34 87 0.9 Chan Ho Park
Francisco Rodriguez 49.3 8.76 2.74 1.10 134 0.8 Steve Reed
Alex Wilson 69.7 6.07 2.71 1.03 111 0.6 Dale Mohorcic
Tyler Alexander 125.7 5.30 1.86 1.50 83 0.5 Randy Leek
Joe Jimenez 46.3 10.89 3.30 1.17 112 0.4 Antonio Osuna
Blaine Hardy 58.0 7.60 3.26 0.93 107 0.4 Javier Lopez
Kyle Ryan 68.3 5.93 3.29 0.92 102 0.3 Pat Clements
Mike Pelfrey 109.0 4.38 3.06 1.16 81 0.3 Charlie Robertson
Cesar Ramos 66.0 6.41 3.41 1.23 89 0.2 Curt Young
Shane Greene 99.3 7.25 3.17 1.09 83 0.2 Matt Herges
Justin Wilson 58.3 9.57 3.24 1.08 100 0.2 John Grabow
Preston Guilmet 60.0 8.25 2.25 1.20 99 0.2 Travis Minix
Chad Bell 98.0 6.61 4.22 1.19 81 0.2 Scott Forster
Bruce Rondon 49.0 10.10 4.41 1.10 98 0.1 Brian Bruney
Artie Lewicki 89.7 6.22 3.01 1.40 79 0.1 Jamie Arnold
Logan Kensing 53.3 6.75 3.55 0.84 94 0.0 Rube Ehrhardt
Ruben Alaniz 64.0 6.75 4.22 0.98 92 0.0 Joe Hudson
Angel Nesbitt 61.3 8.08 4.11 1.17 91 -0.1 Tony Dougherty
Jeff Ferrell 31.0 8.71 2.61 1.45 89 -0.1 Kevin Crafton
Mark Lowe 49.0 8.82 3.31 1.29 90 -0.1 Matt Whiteside
Arcenio Leon 48.3 7.45 3.73 1.12 89 -0.1 Jason Bullard
Drew VerHagen 42.0 5.79 3.86 1.07 88 -0.1 Ed Sprague
Myles Jaye 140.7 5.50 3.13 1.47 76 -0.1 Junior Herndon
Warwick Saupold 99.3 6.16 4.17 1.27 76 -0.2 Daron Kirkreit
Buck Farmer 121.0 7.14 3.42 1.64 76 -0.2 Brent Schoening
Sean Donatello 48.7 5.73 2.59 1.11 86 -0.2 Bill McAfee
Paul Voelker 54.0 9.67 4.33 1.33 86 -0.3 Craig Dingman
Daniel Stumpf 54.3 7.13 3.31 1.16 81 -0.3 Tim Hamulack
Dustin Molleken 59.0 7.93 5.03 1.22 80 -0.3 David Lee
A.J. Achter 71.3 6.44 3.16 1.51 84 -0.4 Ryan Cummings
William Cuevas 114.7 5.96 4.16 1.49 73 -0.5 Mike Heathcott
Joshua Turley 133.7 5.65 2.96 1.68 73 -0.5 Mike Rochford
Austin Kubitza 95.7 5.83 4.98 1.22 72 -0.6 Steve Sparks
Bobby Parnell 38.3 5.64 5.17 1.17 71 -0.7 Jerry Johnson
Drake Britton 57.3 4.40 4.55 1.26 71 -0.7 Danny Young
Kurt Spomer 60.3 5.37 3.58 1.34 75 -0.8 Rick Berg
Thad Weber 123.3 4.74 2.92 1.75 69 -1.0 R.A. Dickey
Adam Ravenelle 49.0 7.35 6.06 1.47 68 -1.0 Brad Tweedlie
Tommy Collier 121.7 5.10 3.55 1.77 68 -1.2 Kirk McDonald
Jairo Labourt 90.3 6.48 7.87 1.30 65 -1.2 Rich Stahl
Sandy Baez 87.7 5.34 3.69 1.95 63 -1.3 Steve Wilson
Victor Alcantara 106.7 5.48 6.07 1.52 61 -2.0 Joel Santo

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



Print This Post



Carson Cistulli has just published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.


Comments Are Loading Now!