2017 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Angels

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / San Diego / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Most everyone has become comfortable with the fact that Mike Trout (680 PA, 9.0 zWAR) is the world’s best living ballplayer. Merely because one has grown accustomed to his excellence, however, doesn’t preclude one from wanting to have that greatness illustrated periodically. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections facilitate an opportunity to do that. ZiPS, like other projection systems, is inherently conservative. Despite that, Trout is forecast for nine wins. For reference, consider that, since 2011, a player has reached the nine-win threshold on just six occasions. (On four of those occasions, of course, the player in question was Trout himself.) By definition, a nine-win season is an outlier. Nevertheless, Szymborski’s computer has suggested that as the median outcome for Trout in 2017.

Beyond Trout, unfortunately, there’s little reason for enthusiasm here. Kole Calhoun (620, 3.0) and Andrelton Simmons (574, 3.4) offer some promise. Of the remaining six positions on the club’s offensive depth chart, though, five of them are expected to produce only about a win.

Pitchers
Angels starters produced the third-worst collective WAR among major-league rotations in 2016. The only significant alteration this offseason has been to replace Jered Weaver with Jesse Chavez (134.1 IP, 1.2 zWAR). Given Weaver’s troubles last year, that’s not an entirely inconsequential exchange. It doesn’t lift the group into the average range, however. As might be expected, Garrett Richards‘ projection (114.0, 1.9) features a collection of strong rate stats, but a less strong innings total. Unsurprising, that, given his mostly lost 2017 campaign.

The Angels bullpen was also third-worst in the league by FIP-based WAR. As is the case with the rotation, basically all the principal members of that group return in 2017. Cam Bedrosian (61.0 IP, 0.6 zWAR) receives the relief corps’ best projection by basically every measure, including park-adjusted ERA (81 ERA-).

Bench/Prospects
The express intent of the present document isn’t to facilitate an exercise in disappointment. However, examining the club’s role players and prospects, it’s difficult to offer much hope here, either. Outfielder Ryan LaMarre (312 PA, 0.7 zWAR), signed to major-league deal this offseason, receives the top WAR projection among players not included on the depth chart below. Regardless of what Szymborski’s dumb computer suggests, infielder Sherman Johnson (564, 0.4) is a ray of sunshine in a world that otherwise offers zero rays of sunshine.

Among pitchers, Andrew Heaney (136.2 IP, 1.8 zWAR) and Nick Tropeano (116.0, 1.3) earn the third- and fifth-best WAR forecasts on the Angels. Unfortunately, both underwent Tommy John procedures this past summer and are likely to return only late in the season, if at all. Left-hander John Lamb (124.2, 1.0) represents an interesting depth piece. Unfortunately, back surgery has likely rendered him unable to return for the start of the season, as well.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Angels, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

angels-depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Mike Trout R 25 CF 680 115 163 31 6 35 104 24 6
Andrelton Simmons R 27 SS 574 59 140 24 3 7 53 7 3
Kole Calhoun L 29 RF 620 84 147 29 4 20 75 4 2
Albert Pujols R 37 DH 581 70 140 19 0 28 107 3 1
Yunel Escobar R 34 3B 530 55 134 22 1 7 42 1 2
Cameron Maybin R 30 CF 447 57 106 18 4 7 46 14 5
Danny Espinosa B 30 SS 475 49 85 14 1 15 46 7 2
C.J. Cron R 27 1B 506 56 126 26 2 19 74 3 2
Ryan LaMarre R 28 CF 312 30 64 11 1 8 27 9 4
Martin Maldonado R 30 C 219 18 38 6 0 5 22 0 0
Johnny Giavotella R 29 2B 469 52 113 24 2 5 43 6 3
Carlos Perez R 26 C 345 34 70 19 0 5 39 2 1
Geovany Soto R 34 C 146 15 30 7 0 5 17 0 0
Rey Navarro B 27 SS 371 38 85 17 2 6 32 3 3
Jefry Marte R 26 1B 465 55 102 21 1 18 60 5 4
David Fletcher R 23 SS 429 40 100 16 2 2 31 13 4
Taylor Ward R 23 C 433 45 88 9 0 4 35 2 1
Sherman Johnson L 26 2B 564 61 107 20 4 10 49 13 5
Matt Williams R 27 SS 338 31 64 11 1 2 22 8 5
Gregorio Petit R 32 SS 330 32 71 16 1 4 27 1 1
Todd Cunningham B 28 RF 458 50 98 16 2 5 37 14 5
Cliff Pennington B 33 2B 229 21 44 6 2 2 14 3 0
Tony Sanchez R 29 C 311 31 60 14 0 7 30 1 1
Kaleb Cowart B 25 3B 532 53 105 24 3 8 49 12 4
Ramon Flores L 25 RF 381 37 77 15 2 8 36 3 2
Ji-Man Choi L 26 1B 287 31 60 12 1 7 30 3 4
Luis Tejada R 24 LF 375 39 77 15 2 7 37 5 3
Shane Robinson R 32 LF 206 24 42 7 1 1 16 4 2
Chad Hinshaw R 26 CF 327 32 54 10 2 5 25 14 6
Nolan Fontana L 26 SS 420 38 67 15 2 3 26 5 5
Jared Walsh L 23 1B 417 42 95 24 1 7 40 1 0
Hutton Moyer B 24 SS 417 42 81 17 2 9 42 7 4
Brendan Ryan R 35 SS 223 17 41 7 1 1 15 2 2
Craig Gentry R 33 LF 252 26 49 6 1 1 14 12 3
Francisco Arcia L 27 C 292 24 56 9 1 2 19 1 1
Nick Buss L 30 RF 452 44 96 18 4 6 39 8 4
Roberto Baldoquin R 23 SS 321 23 59 9 2 1 18 3 5
Caleb Adams R 24 LF 438 38 75 11 4 6 32 7 4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Mike Trout 680 15.6% 22.2% .265 .339 .292 .410 .557 .409
Andrelton Simmons 574 5.7% 9.2% .095 .279 .263 .308 .358 .291
Kole Calhoun 620 8.4% 19.7% .173 .302 .263 .328 .436 .332
Albert Pujols 581 6.9% 11.9% .193 .254 .262 .315 .455 .323
Yunel Escobar 530 7.2% 12.5% .093 .308 .278 .334 .371 .309
Cameron Maybin 447 8.1% 19.5% .116 .315 .261 .323 .377 .315
Danny Espinosa 475 7.2% 33.1% .145 .278 .202 .280 .347 .269
C.J. Cron 506 4.5% 19.6% .184 .299 .268 .308 .452 .326
Ryan LaMarre 312 5.8% 29.8% .129 .301 .225 .281 .354 .287
Martin Maldonado 219 10.0% 26.0% .111 .256 .200 .295 .311 .255
Johnny Giavotella 469 5.3% 11.1% .099 .283 .260 .301 .359 .289
Carlos Perez 345 5.5% 18.0% .107 .257 .220 .265 .327 .257
Geovany Soto 146 7.5% 30.1% .165 .298 .226 .285 .391 .289
Rey Navarro 371 4.3% 16.7% .112 .280 .244 .278 .356 .277
Jefry Marte 465 6.9% 22.2% .182 .275 .241 .300 .423 .316
David Fletcher 429 4.4% 13.3% .065 .284 .248 .285 .313 .271
Taylor Ward 433 6.9% 17.8% .054 .266 .223 .281 .277 .250
Sherman Johnson 564 9.6% 23.6% .116 .269 .214 .292 .330 .283
Matt Williams 338 9.5% 23.1% .064 .279 .213 .292 .277 .265
Gregorio Petit 330 4.8% 21.2% .097 .284 .231 .269 .328 .256
Todd Cunningham 458 6.3% 17.0% .085 .281 .238 .299 .323 .281
Cliff Pennington 229 9.2% 22.7% .079 .280 .217 .292 .296 .260
Tony Sanchez 311 8.0% 26.7% .126 .277 .215 .289 .341 .278
Kaleb Cowart 532 6.2% 28.0% .110 .286 .213 .264 .323 .261
Ramon Flores 381 8.9% 21.3% .127 .272 .227 .298 .354 .285
Ji-Man Choi 287 10.1% 19.5% .139 .276 .238 .318 .377 .309
Luis Tejada 375 5.3% 24.5% .115 .280 .221 .273 .336 .270
Shane Robinson 206 7.3% 15.5% .064 .265 .225 .284 .289 .262
Chad Hinshaw 327 6.4% 35.2% .099 .283 .185 .265 .284 .262
Nolan Fontana 420 11.0% 31.2% .077 .278 .186 .281 .263 .253
Jared Walsh 417 4.8% 23.5% .120 .304 .243 .280 .363 .275
Hutton Moyer 417 4.3% 33.1% .124 .298 .209 .260 .333 .264
Brendan Ryan 223 5.4% 26.5% .059 .272 .200 .249 .259 .230
Craig Gentry 252 7.1% 21.0% .048 .274 .216 .280 .264 .256
Francisco Arcia 292 5.1% 26.0% .063 .280 .207 .261 .270 .237
Nick Buss 452 5.5% 19.9% .106 .277 .231 .275 .337 .269
Roberto Baldoquin 321 4.4% 27.4% .054 .274 .197 .239 .251 .225
Caleb Adams 438 6.2% 39.0% .092 .304 .187 .242 .279 .236

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Mike Trout 680 9.0 169 -1 9.0 Mickey Mantle
Andrelton Simmons 574 4.1 87 14 3.4 Alex Arias
Kole Calhoun 620 5.2 113 4 3.0 John Stone
Albert Pujols 581 5.3 114 0 1.7 Ernie Banks
Yunel Escobar 530 4.6 99 -6 1.4 Mark Loretta
Cameron Maybin 447 4.6 97 -6 1.1 Marlon Byrd
Danny Espinosa 475 3.4 76 3 1.1 Cody Ransom
C.J. Cron 506 5.1 111 -2 1.1 Chris James
Ryan LaMarre 312 3.5 78 2 0.7 Mario Encarnacion
Martin Maldonado 219 3.1 71 2 0.7 Danny Ardoin
Johnny Giavotella 469 4.0 85 -3 0.6 Todd Haney
Carlos Perez 345 3.0 66 1 0.6 Jeff Winchester
Geovany Soto 146 3.9 88 -1 0.5 Damian Miller
Rey Navarro 371 3.5 77 -1 0.5 Ray Navarrete
Jefry Marte 465 4.4 101 -2 0.5 Rick Lancellotti
David Fletcher 429 3.3 69 -1 0.4 Dave Myers
Taylor Ward 433 2.7 59 1 0.4 Mike Rabelo
Sherman Johnson 564 3.4 75 -3 0.4 Jason Maxwell
Matt Williams 338 2.7 62 3 0.4 Taber Lee
Gregorio Petit 330 3.1 67 1 0.3 Garth Iorg
Todd Cunningham 458 3.5 76 4 0.2 Rick Manning
Cliff Pennington 229 3.1 67 1 0.2 Dave Matranga
Tony Sanchez 311 3.4 77 -7 0.1 Del Rice
Kaleb Cowart 532 3.0 64 3 0.1 Peter Pope
Ramon Flores 381 3.7 83 0 0.0 Brett Roneberg
Ji-Man Choi 287 4.0 95 -1 0.0 Larry Sutton
Luis Tejada 375 3.2 71 5 0.0 Luis Montanez
Shane Robinson 206 2.9 63 4 0.0 Jim Buccheri
Chad Hinshaw 327 2.6 55 2 -0.1 Barry Wesson
Nolan Fontana 420 2.3 55 1 -0.2 Rolando Pino
Jared Walsh 417 3.7 79 3 -0.3 Ross Gload
Hutton Moyer 417 2.9 66 -5 -0.3 Greg Jelks
Brendan Ryan 223 2.1 44 1 -0.4 Mark Belanger
Craig Gentry 252 2.8 55 2 -0.4 Thomas Johnson
Francisco Arcia 292 2.4 51 -3 -0.5 Fausto Tejero
Nick Buss 452 3.2 71 0 -0.7 Rick Lisi
Roberto Baldoquin 321 1.8 39 0 -1.1 Hector Tena
Caleb Adams 438 2.2 46 -1 -2.1 Randy Strijek

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Matt Shoemaker R 30 25 25 146.3 130 32 18 143 66 62
Garrett Richards R 29 18 18 114.0 109 42 11 101 49 46
Andrew Heaney L 26 23 23 136.7 110 38 15 138 63 59
Tyler Skaggs L 25 19 19 100.0 94 35 11 95 46 43
Nick Tropeano R 26 22 21 116.0 112 40 15 110 56 52
Jesse Chavez R 33 23 21 134.3 115 36 18 135 66 62
John Lamb L 26 24 24 124.7 117 46 16 122 63 59
Ricky Nolasco R 34 21 21 126.7 96 29 16 130 65 61
Alex Meyer R 27 26 15 88.3 94 39 10 80 43 40
Cam Bedrosian R 25 57 0 61.0 76 26 6 50 24 22
Vicente Campos R 24 22 21 109.3 78 37 15 116 58 54
David Huff L 32 30 9 81.0 57 17 10 85 40 37
Jered Weaver R 34 26 26 157.0 101 44 23 167 86 80
C.J. Wilson L 36 12 12 157.0 62 30 9 70 37 35
Kirby Yates R 30 52 0 56.3 63 22 7 50 24 22
Daniel Wright R 26 29 22 141.0 99 36 19 152 77 72
Brooks Pounders R 26 28 10 71.3 64 29 9 69 36 34
Chris Jones L 28 26 18 119.0 78 34 15 128 65 61
Justin Miller R 30 53 0 60.0 58 19 7 55 27 25
Deolis Guerra R 28 42 0 55.3 48 13 7 54 25 23
Osmer Morales R 24 36 10 99.3 85 32 13 99 52 49
Jose Alvarez L 28 66 0 66.0 60 21 7 64 30 28
Cory Rasmus R 29 30 3 42.3 43 18 5 38 20 19
Nate Smith L 25 23 23 129.0 96 44 19 134 73 68
Huston Street R 33 44 0 41.0 37 14 5 39 18 17
Mike Morin R 26 71 0 65.3 64 18 8 61 30 28
Andrew Bailey R 33 41 0 42.3 44 14 5 38 19 18
Tyler DeLoach L 26 37 13 99.3 89 48 13 97 55 51
Manny Banuelos L 26 19 19 87.0 74 46 12 85 50 47
Cody Ege L 26 52 0 64.3 61 28 8 62 31 29
Cody Satterwhite R 30 45 0 53.0 49 22 6 51 26 24
Yunesky Maya R 35 12 11 62.7 42 22 8 68 36 34
David D. Carpenter R 31 32 0 30.0 27 11 4 29 15 14
Chris O’Grady L 27 42 5 78.7 56 22 10 83 42 39
J.C. Ramirez R 28 60 0 68.3 54 24 8 69 34 32
Tim Lincecum R 33 19 17 92.0 72 39 13 99 55 51
Eduardo Paredes R 22 54 0 65.3 57 21 9 65 33 31
Abel de los Santos R 24 49 0 63.0 62 28 8 59 32 30
Kyle Kendrick R 32 22 22 123.0 73 32 19 137 73 68
Javy Guerra R 31 38 0 44.0 39 23 5 42 24 22
Greg Mahle L 24 56 0 58.3 45 20 7 60 31 29
Drew Gagnon R 27 30 14 95.0 72 43 14 99 57 53
Josh Roenicke R 34 25 9 70.0 42 30 10 77 43 40
Alex Blackford R 26 25 12 78.3 65 43 12 80 48 45
Keynan Middleton R 23 48 0 63.3 67 33 10 60 36 34
Jose Valdez R 27 57 0 63.0 56 36 8 61 36 34
Geoff Broussard R 26 42 0 62.7 51 23 10 65 36 34
Troy Scribner R 25 24 18 99.3 85 56 15 101 63 59
Nate Fury R 26 32 0 43.7 39 31 7 43 29 27

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Matt Shoemaker 146.3 614 21.2% 5.2% .291 3.81 3.67 95 90
Garrett Richards 114.0 485 22.5% 8.7% .282 3.63 3.63 91 89
Andrew Heaney 136.7 586 18.8% 6.5% .296 3.89 3.91 97 96
Tyler Skaggs 100.0 430 21.9% 8.1% .294 3.87 3.80 97 93
Nick Tropeano 116.0 498 22.5% 8.0% .291 4.03 3.97 101 97
Jesse Chavez 134.3 574 20.0% 6.3% .291 4.15 3.92 104 96
John Lamb 124.7 542 21.6% 8.5% .296 4.26 4.12 107 101
Ricky Nolasco 126.7 539 17.8% 5.4% .289 4.33 3.97 108 97
Alex Meyer 88.3 384 24.5% 10.2% .294 4.08 3.88 102 95
Cam Bedrosian 61.0 259 29.3% 10.0% .295 3.25 3.17 81 78
Vicente Campos 109.3 481 16.2% 7.7% .293 4.45 4.64 111 114
David Huff 81.0 345 16.5% 4.9% .292 4.11 4.08 103 100
Jered Weaver 157.0 682 14.8% 6.5% .283 4.59 4.64 115 114
C.J. Wilson 157.0 571 10.9% 5.3% .131 4.37 3.69 109 90
Kirby Yates 56.3 241 26.2% 9.1% .297 3.51 3.82 88 94
Daniel Wright 141.0 611 16.2% 5.9% .296 4.60 4.39 115 108
Brooks Pounders 71.3 312 20.5% 9.3% .290 4.29 4.26 107 104
Chris Jones 119.0 519 15.0% 6.6% .293 4.61 4.44 115 109
Justin Miller 60.0 254 22.8% 7.5% .286 3.75 3.74 94 92
Deolis Guerra 55.3 233 20.6% 5.6% .290 3.74 3.88 94 95
Osmer Morales 99.3 429 19.8% 7.5% .294 4.44 4.24 111 104
Jose Alvarez 66.0 283 21.2% 7.4% .297 3.82 3.58 96 88
Cory Rasmus 42.3 183 23.5% 9.8% .285 4.04 3.82 101 93
Nate Smith 129.0 565 17.0% 7.8% .288 4.74 4.70 119 115
Huston Street 41.0 176 21.0% 8.0% .283 3.73 3.69 93 90
Mike Morin 65.3 275 23.3% 6.5% .290 3.86 3.52 97 86
Andrew Bailey 42.3 179 24.6% 7.8% .287 3.83 3.63 96 89
Tyler DeLoach 99.3 443 20.1% 10.8% .292 4.62 4.59 116 112
Manny Banuelos 87.0 392 18.9% 11.7% .287 4.86 4.99 122 122
Cody Ege 64.3 283 21.6% 9.9% .295 4.06 4.18 102 102
Cody Satterwhite 53.0 232 21.1% 9.5% .296 4.08 4.14 102 102
Yunesky Maya 62.7 278 15.1% 7.9% .295 4.88 4.57 122 112
David D. Carpenter 30.0 130 20.8% 8.5% .287 4.20 4.24 105 104
Chris O’Grady 78.7 341 16.4% 6.4% .293 4.46 4.33 112 106
J.C. Ramirez 68.3 298 18.1% 8.1% .292 4.21 4.15 105 102
Tim Lincecum 92.0 414 17.4% 9.4% .300 4.99 4.71 125 116
Eduardo Paredes 65.3 282 20.2% 7.4% .293 4.27 4.21 107 103
Abel de los Santos 63.0 276 22.5% 10.1% .293 4.29 4.22 107 103
Kyle Kendrick 123.0 538 13.6% 5.9% .289 4.98 4.83 125 118
Javy Guerra 44.0 197 19.8% 11.7% .291 4.50 4.45 113 109
Greg Mahle 58.3 255 17.7% 7.8% .296 4.47 4.31 112 106
Drew Gagnon 95.0 427 16.9% 10.1% .290 5.02 4.99 126 122
Josh Roenicke 70.0 317 13.2% 9.5% .290 5.14 5.22 129 128
Alex Blackford 78.3 358 18.2% 12.0% .292 5.17 5.24 129 128
Keynan Middleton 63.3 283 23.7% 11.7% .296 4.83 4.80 121 118
Jose Valdez 63.0 286 19.6% 12.6% .290 4.86 4.79 122 117
Geoff Broussard 62.7 276 18.5% 8.3% .291 4.88 4.80 122 118
Troy Scribner 99.3 455 18.7% 12.3% .293 5.35 5.20 134 127
Nate Fury 43.7 205 19.0% 15.1% .285 5.56 5.67 139 139

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Matt Shoemaker 146.3 8.00 1.97 1.11 101 2.0 Ismael Valdez
Garrett Richards 114.0 8.61 3.32 0.87 106 1.9 Wade Miller
Andrew Heaney 136.7 7.24 2.50 0.99 99 1.8 Doug Davis
Tyler Skaggs 100.0 8.46 3.15 0.99 100 1.3 Paul Maholm
Nick Tropeano 116.0 8.69 3.10 1.16 95 1.3 Pete Fisher
Jesse Chavez 134.3 7.71 2.41 1.21 93 1.2 Charles Nagy
John Lamb 124.7 8.44 3.32 1.15 90 1.0 Mike Gosling
Ricky Nolasco 126.7 6.82 2.06 1.14 89 0.9 Pat Ahearne
Alex Meyer 88.3 9.58 3.98 1.02 94 0.8 Kevin Gallaher
Cam Bedrosian 61.0 11.21 3.84 0.89 119 0.6 Mark Wohlers
Vicente Campos 109.3 6.42 3.05 1.24 87 0.6 Zach McClellan
David Huff 81.0 6.33 1.89 1.11 94 0.6 Mark Thurmond
Jered Weaver 157.0 5.79 2.52 1.32 84 0.5 Jared Fernandez
C.J. Wilson 157.0 3.55 1.72 0.52 88 0.5 Tommy Byrne
Kirby Yates 56.3 10.07 3.52 1.12 110 0.4 Mike Butcher
Daniel Wright 141.0 6.32 2.30 1.21 84 0.4 Mike Thompson
Brooks Pounders 71.3 8.08 3.66 1.14 90 0.4 Mike Meyers
Chris Jones 119.0 5.90 2.57 1.13 83 0.3 Dave Otto
Justin Miller 60.0 8.70 2.85 1.05 103 0.2 Mike Koplove
Deolis Guerra 55.3 7.81 2.12 1.14 103 0.2 Scott Winchester
Osmer Morales 99.3 7.70 2.90 1.18 87 0.2 John Frascatore
Jose Alvarez 66.0 8.18 2.86 0.95 101 0.2 Juan Agosto
Cory Rasmus 42.3 9.15 3.83 1.06 95 0.2 Franklyn German
Nate Smith 129.0 6.70 3.07 1.33 81 0.2 Tim Kalita
Huston Street 41.0 8.12 3.07 1.10 103 0.2 Ricky Bottalico
Mike Morin 65.3 8.82 2.48 1.10 100 0.1 Rick Anderson
Andrew Bailey 42.3 9.36 2.98 1.06 101 0.1 Bob Long
Tyler DeLoach 99.3 8.07 4.35 1.18 83 0.0 Ryan Jacobs
Manny Banuelos 87.0 7.66 4.76 1.24 79 0.0 Vaughn Eshelman
Cody Ege 64.3 8.54 3.92 1.12 95 0.0 Bob MacDonald
Cody Satterwhite 53.0 8.32 3.74 1.02 94 0.0 Jason Bullard
Yunesky Maya 62.7 6.03 3.16 1.15 79 0.0 Nerio Rodriguez
David D. Carpenter 30.0 8.10 3.30 1.20 92 -0.1 Joe Borowski
Chris O’Grady 78.7 6.40 2.52 1.14 86 -0.1 Corey Hamman
J.C. Ramirez 68.3 7.12 3.16 1.05 91 -0.2 Tim Lavigne
Tim Lincecum 92.0 7.04 3.82 1.27 77 -0.2 Russ Ortiz
Eduardo Paredes 65.3 7.86 2.89 1.24 90 -0.2 Matt Snyder
Abel de los Santos 63.0 8.86 4.00 1.14 90 -0.2 Carlos Chavez
Kyle Kendrick 123.0 5.34 2.34 1.39 77 -0.2 Allen Davis
Javy Guerra 44.0 7.98 4.70 1.02 86 -0.3 Jason Bullard
Greg Mahle 58.3 6.95 3.09 1.08 86 -0.4 Dan Schatzeder
Drew Gagnon 95.0 6.82 4.07 1.33 77 -0.4 Jose Vaquedano
Josh Roenicke 70.0 5.40 3.86 1.29 75 -0.5 Hal Elliott
Alex Blackford 78.3 7.47 4.94 1.38 74 -0.5 Jason Baker
Keynan Middleton 63.3 9.53 4.69 1.42 80 -0.7 Felix Villegas
Jose Valdez 63.0 8.00 5.14 1.14 79 -0.7 Edwardo Sierra
Geoff Broussard 62.7 7.32 3.30 1.44 79 -0.7 Ivan Maldonado
Troy Scribner 99.3 7.70 5.08 1.36 72 -0.7 Earl Sanders
Nate Fury 43.7 8.03 6.38 1.44 69 -0.9 Brad Tweedlie

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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