2017 ZiPS Projections – Minnesota Twins

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / New York AL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
If you were to travel back to the winter of 2013-14 and inform the earlier version of yourself that, in just three years time, Joe Mauer (532 PA, 0.9 zWAR) would receive the worst projected WAR among all Twins starters, the young iteration of you would slap the older one right in the mouth. After that, he’d have some pretty understandable questions about how your journey to the recent past has been made possible and why you’ve chosen to make it. In that intial moment, however, the absurdity of your comments regarding Joe Mauer would overcome him.

On the one hand, this is a negative development for Minnesota. For the past couple years, they’ve typically run payrolls of about $100 million. Allocating nearly a quarter of that to a single win isn’t helpful.

On the other hand, this represents a very positive development for Minnesota — because Mauer’s projection isn’t that bad. Rather, a number of the other projections are just better. For the past couple years, the Twins have lacked an adequate supply of competent hitters and fielders. Regard: last season, their position players ranked 25th by WAR. The season before that? 27th. What the ZiPS numbers here depict is something much more like an average group — with serviceable depth, too.

Pitchers
The prognosis for the starting rotation isn’t as strong. Last year, Twins starters finished 26th by the FIP version of WAR and dead last by the version of WAR calculated with runs allowed. By that latter standard, the club’s 2017 rotation is likely to be a rousing success. By the standard of preventing runs relative to their opponents, however, they’re likely to perform worse than average. Right-hander Ervin Santana (156.1 IP, 2.1 zWAR) is the only starter to receive a projection above the two-win threshold. That said, there are quite a few arms in the 1.0- to 2.0-WAR range, so the floor isn’t terribly low, either.

In the bullpen, Glen Perkins (41.1 IP, 0.4 zWAR) missed all of 2016 with the exception of two April appearances. There’s a chance he could return for Opening Day. In either case, the ZiPS model doesn’t account for the particulars of Perkins’ injury, only that he missed a significant period of time. Nevertheless, he receives the top ERA forecast on the club (86 ERA-). Brandon Kintzler (52.1 IP, 92 ERA-, 0.3 zWAR) would continue to close games in his absence. Of note, however: both Trevor May (62.2, 87, 0.6) and Ryan Pressly (66.2, 88, 0.6) receive superior projections.

Bench/Prospects
Because a number of the club’s top prospects have graduated over the past couple years, most of them can be found as starters on the depth-chart image below. Catcher Mitch Garver (464 PA, 1.4 zAWR) enters his age-26 season and has never recorded a major-league plate appearance. He receives the top projection among rookie-eligible field players, though. Outfielder Zach Granite (580, 0.9) has appeared on Chris Mitchell’s KATOH prospect lists and is fairly well acquitted here, too. Also, a note about Jorge Polanco (598 PA, 2.3 zWAR). Following the trade of Eduardo Nunez to San Francisco, he more or less became Minnesota’s starting shortstop. He lost his rookie eligibility in the process, but merits some attention given the promise of his forecast.

If the Twins’ rotation were constructed entirely on the outcome of each pitcher’s ZiPS projection, Stephen Gonsalves (124.2 IP, 1.3 zWAR) would be the club’s No. 5 starter. Young right-hander Fernando Romero (125.2, 0.8), meanwhile, receives an encouraging forecast for a player who’s never appeared above High-A.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Twins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

twins-depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Brian Dozier R 30 2B 657 96 148 33 4 31 82 15 4
Byron Buxton R 23 CF 533 72 126 24 9 16 64 16 3
Miguel Sano R 24 3B 509 63 105 23 2 26 72 3 1
Jorge Polanco B 23 SS 598 63 149 26 8 11 67 11 7
Max Kepler L 24 RF 561 66 125 27 7 16 74 9 3
Jason Castro L 30 C 402 43 79 18 2 11 42 1 1
Eddie Rosario L 25 CF 528 69 132 25 6 13 58 9 6
Byung-Ho Park R 30 1B 436 56 98 18 1 21 55 3 1
Trevor Plouffe R 31 3B 490 53 114 24 2 15 65 1 1
Tommy Field R 30 2B 399 43 84 15 2 11 39 3 2
Mitch Garver R 26 C 464 46 95 21 0 8 48 2 3
Eduardo Escobar B 28 SS 426 43 100 23 3 8 45 2 3
Joe Mauer L 34 1B 532 59 122 23 2 9 51 2 0
Zach Granite L 24 CF 580 62 136 17 6 3 42 35 13
Kennys Vargas B 26 1B 546 68 115 21 1 24 70 0 0
Kurt Suzuki R 33 C 402 32 94 21 1 5 48 0 0
Matt Hague R 31 3B 367 37 85 17 1 8 38 2 1
Robbie Grossman B 27 LF 520 61 114 21 1 12 49 9 6
John Ryan Murphy R 26 C 319 32 68 15 0 6 30 0 0
Danny Santana B 26 CF 428 53 105 19 6 5 36 17 7
Leonardo Reginatto R 27 SS 487 45 110 16 2 2 34 5 4
Dan Rohlfing R 28 C 213 20 41 10 0 4 19 0 0
Nick Gordon L 21 SS 518 48 116 22 4 5 43 13 15
Benji Gonzalez B 27 SS 455 46 97 21 3 4 37 10 7
Engelb Vielma B 23 SS 469 41 98 8 3 1 24 15 10
Dan Gamache L 26 3B 288 28 60 12 1 4 24 2 4
Niko Goodrum B 25 3B 388 39 73 14 2 7 33 13 4
J.B. Shuck L 30 CF 395 44 93 13 4 4 36 6 5
Daniel Palka L 25 RF 527 61 105 20 2 24 67 9 4
James Beresford L 28 3B 525 48 122 18 2 1 34 3 2
Reynaldo Rodriguez R 30 1B 400 46 87 21 2 13 45 5 3
Jairo Rodriguez R 28 C 95 7 19 3 0 0 5 0 0
Ben Paulsen L 29 1B 459 42 98 22 4 12 46 2 2
Heiker Meneses R 25 3B 306 26 60 7 2 1 17 7 6
Eddy Rodriguez R 31 C 156 12 26 6 0 3 12 0 1
Travis Harrison R 24 LF 507 50 92 20 1 7 41 6 8

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Brian Dozier 657 9.3% 19.9% .230 .275 .255 .330 .485 .350
Byron Buxton 533 6.4% 29.3% .185 .345 .259 .311 .444 .328
Miguel Sano 509 11.4% 35.4% .236 .325 .235 .324 .471 .339
Jorge Polanco 598 6.0% 16.2% .136 .307 .269 .315 .405 .317
Max Kepler 561 9.4% 18.7% .179 .285 .251 .323 .430 .325
Jason Castro 402 9.5% 29.1% .153 .293 .221 .299 .374 .294
Eddie Rosario 528 3.8% 23.1% .152 .322 .263 .291 .415 .306
Byung-Ho Park 436 8.0% 29.4% .212 .314 .251 .321 .463 .335
Trevor Plouffe 490 6.9% 19.4% .163 .289 .254 .309 .417 .312
Tommy Field 399 7.0% 22.1% .145 .278 .234 .300 .379 .298
Mitch Garver 464 8.2% 24.1% .108 .288 .227 .295 .335 .281
Eduardo Escobar 426 5.9% 19.7% .134 .303 .254 .300 .388 .298
Joe Mauer 532 11.8% 17.7% .116 .310 .262 .350 .378 .310
Zach Granite 580 5.9% 12.9% .071 .291 .256 .302 .327 .295
Kennys Vargas 546 10.3% 28.0% .197 .294 .238 .319 .435 .321
Kurt Suzuki 402 5.5% 11.4% .104 .277 .255 .305 .359 .285
Matt Hague 367 7.6% 17.7% .130 .295 .256 .322 .386 .310
Robbie Grossman 520 11.2% 25.0% .130 .323 .249 .336 .379 .320
John Ryan Murphy 319 6.0% 21.3% .113 .277 .231 .277 .344 .269
Danny Santana 428 3.7% 22.2% .115 .329 .261 .293 .376 .300
Leonardo Reginatto 487 4.7% 17.9% .057 .293 .243 .283 .300 .262
Dan Rohlfing 213 6.1% 30.0% .114 .289 .211 .265 .325 .253
Nick Gordon 518 3.5% 23.9% .092 .305 .235 .271 .327 .276
Benji Gonzalez 455 6.6% 19.1% .093 .283 .233 .284 .326 .276
Engelb Vielma 469 6.0% 20.3% .040 .293 .231 .280 .271 .256
Dan Gamache 288 7.3% 26.7% .100 .308 .230 .290 .330 .279
Niko Goodrum 388 8.0% 31.2% .111 .292 .207 .274 .318 .270
J.B. Shuck 395 5.6% 8.6% .091 .270 .255 .297 .346 .284
Daniel Palka 527 7.2% 36.2% .199 .298 .218 .275 .417 .301
James Beresford 525 5.1% 15.6% .051 .295 .249 .288 .300 .261
Reynaldo Rodriguez 400 6.0% 21.5% .173 .269 .235 .283 .408 .301
Jairo Rodriguez 95 3.2% 20.0% .034 .271 .216 .247 .250 .217
Ben Paulsen 459 6.8% 27.2% .156 .298 .231 .285 .387 .292
Heiker Meneses 306 4.9% 25.2% .050 .289 .214 .262 .264 .245
Eddy Rodriguez 156 3.2% 40.4% .103 .280 .178 .213 .281 .216
Travis Harrison 507 8.7% 29.2% .095 .284 .204 .286 .299 .272

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Brian Dozier 657 5.9 121 -1 4.3 Dan Uggla
Byron Buxton 533 5.3 105 9 3.5 Mike Cameron
Miguel Sano 509 5.4 116 -6 2.5 Nick Esasky
Jorge Polanco 598 4.7 97 -3 2.3 Royce Clayton
Max Kepler 561 5.1 106 4 2.0 Von Hayes
Jason Castro 402 3.9 84 4 2.0 Jerry Goff
Eddie Rosario 528 4.4 92 3 1.6 Mike Patterson
Byung-Ho Park 436 5.4 113 2 1.5 Nick Esasky
Trevor Plouffe 490 4.6 98 -3 1.5 Rick Schu
Tommy Field 399 4.0 86 5 1.4 Dick Green
Mitch Garver 464 3.4 74 3 1.4 B.J. Waszgis
Eduardo Escobar 426 4.1 89 -4 0.9 Kurt Stillwell
Joe Mauer 532 4.9 101 2 0.9 Norm Siebern
Zach Granite 580 3.8 74 3 0.9 Adrian Brown
Kennys Vargas 546 4.9 106 -2 0.9 Jeff Larish
Kurt Suzuki 402 4.0 83 -5 0.8 Buddy Rosar
Matt Hague 367 4.5 94 -6 0.6 Ray Jablonski
Robbie Grossman 520 4.5 97 -5 0.5 Todd Linden
John Ryan Murphy 319 3.3 70 -2 0.4 Dave Van Gorder
Danny Santana 428 4.1 83 -4 0.4 Carlos Gomez
Leonardo Reginatto 487 3.0 62 4 0.3 Benny Ruiz
Dan Rohlfing 213 3.0 62 1 0.2 Steve Swisher
Nick Gordon 518 2.8 64 4 0.1 Carlos Garcia
Benji Gonzalez 455 3.2 67 0 0.1 Geoff Blum
Engelb Vielma 469 2.5 54 4 -0.2 James Lofton
Dan Gamache 288 3.1 71 -2 -0.2 Glenn Carpenter
Niko Goodrum 388 3.1 63 -1 -0.3 Sean Berry
J.B. Shuck 395 3.6 77 -5 -0.3 Doug Dascenzo
Daniel Palka 527 4.0 88 -6 -0.3 Eric Anthony
James Beresford 525 3.1 63 1 -0.3 Thad Reece
Reynaldo Rodriguez 400 4.0 88 -2 -0.4 Kevin Young
Jairo Rodriguez 95 2.1 38 -2 -0.4 Pedro Grifol
Ben Paulsen 459 3.8 84 0 -0.5 Doug DeVore
Heiker Meneses 306 2.2 46 5 -0.5 Luis Cotto
Eddy Rodriguez 156 1.8 35 -4 -0.9 Jayhawk Owens
Travis Harrison 507 2.7 62 -1 -1.4 Daryl Clark

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Ervin Santana R 34 26 26 156.3 121 50 19 166 80 75
Jose Berrios R 23 25 25 137.7 118 41 18 146 73 68
Kyle Gibson R 29 28 28 161.0 116 55 19 175 88 82
Phil Hughes R 31 19 18 109.0 81 15 15 122 56 52
Stephen Gonsalves L 22 25 25 124.7 116 67 14 124 67 63
Hector Santiago L 29 30 29 152.3 127 68 24 159 87 81
Tyler Duffey R 26 28 28 157.7 125 42 23 175 91 85
Fernando Romero R 22 21 21 125.7 87 47 17 138 73 68
Adalberto Mejia L 24 19 18 97.7 80 30 16 109 57 53
Trevor May R 27 62 0 62.7 75 22 7 57 28 26
Ryan Pressly R 28 58 0 66.7 58 23 7 68 30 28
Taylor Rogers L 26 68 0 78.0 67 24 8 81 36 34
D.J. Baxendale R 26 29 18 115.7 78 33 17 133 68 64
Michael Tonkin R 27 64 0 68.3 69 20 9 69 32 30
Justin Haley R 26 26 23 120.0 88 51 16 135 73 68
Glen Perkins L 34 42 0 41.3 42 9 5 41 18 17
Trevor Hildenberger R 26 37 0 46.3 42 9 6 47 21 20
Brandon Kintzler R 32 52 0 52.3 32 12 6 59 25 23
Buddy Boshers L 29 57 0 55.7 55 23 5 53 27 25
Jason Wheeler L 26 25 25 140.3 91 42 23 164 88 82
J.T. Chargois R 26 60 0 61.7 56 28 6 62 31 29
David Hurlbut L 27 21 20 116.3 59 31 17 142 73 68
Ryan O’Rourke L 29 55 0 44.0 46 19 6 41 22 21
Edward Mujica R 33 52 0 53.3 39 10 8 60 28 26
Tyler Jay L 23 24 24 126.0 65 49 20 155 80 75
Felix Jorge R 23 24 24 138.7 83 34 24 167 89 83
Nick Greenwood L 29 28 14 97.3 48 18 16 120 61 57
Henry Centeno R 22 24 19 97.3 64 46 14 112 62 58
Randy Rosario L 23 20 14 79.0 51 38 10 92 50 47
Zack Jones R 26 32 0 35.7 42 27 4 31 19 18
Logan Darnell L 28 24 15 94.3 59 38 14 110 60 56
Alex Wimmers R 28 43 7 81.7 66 38 11 88 49 46
Kohl Stewart R 22 23 23 123.7 65 63 15 146 80 75
Jake Reed R 24 50 0 66.3 52 26 7 71 36 34
Drew Rucinski R 28 26 24 131.7 92 45 21 156 86 80
Aaron Slegers R 24 24 24 131.0 79 45 21 155 86 80
Dan Runzler L 32 29 0 31.0 28 25 3 31 18 17
Yorman Landa R 23 29 0 38.3 31 26 4 40 24 22
Pat Dean L 28 28 24 143.7 79 38 25 178 95 89
Jim Miller R 35 25 0 39.3 34 13 7 43 25 23
Mason Melotakis L 26 31 1 40.0 33 21 7 45 27 25
Alan Busenitz R 26 45 2 72.0 47 28 11 85 46 43
Pat Light R 26 50 0 57.0 55 39 8 58 37 35
Nik Turley L 27 19 10 59.3 50 42 12 67 46 43

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Ervin Santana 156.3 685 17.7% 7.3% .299 4.32 4.14 101 97
Jose Berrios 137.7 600 19.7% 6.8% .308 4.45 4.14 104 97
Kyle Gibson 161.0 713 16.3% 7.7% .301 4.58 4.24 107 100
Phil Hughes 109.0 464 17.5% 3.2% .305 4.29 3.88 100 91
Stephen Gonsalves 124.7 565 20.5% 11.9% .305 4.55 4.49 106 106
Hector Santiago 152.3 684 18.6% 9.9% .294 4.79 4.91 112 115
Tyler Duffey 157.7 690 18.1% 6.1% .308 4.85 4.33 113 102
Fernando Romero 125.7 562 15.5% 8.4% .298 4.87 4.72 113 111
Adalberto Mejia 97.7 432 18.5% 6.9% .309 4.88 4.67 114 110
Trevor May 62.7 267 28.1% 8.2% .312 3.73 3.31 87 78
Ryan Pressly 66.7 291 19.9% 7.9% .303 3.78 3.77 88 89
Taylor Rogers 78.0 339 19.8% 7.1% .311 3.92 3.76 91 88
D.J. Baxendale 115.7 513 15.2% 6.4% .306 4.98 4.68 116 110
Michael Tonkin 68.3 294 23.5% 6.8% .311 3.95 3.77 92 89
Justin Haley 120.0 546 16.1% 9.3% .310 5.10 4.82 119 113
Glen Perkins 41.3 174 24.2% 5.2% .308 3.70 3.30 86 78
Trevor Hildenberger 46.3 195 21.5% 4.6% .304 3.88 3.69 90 87
Brandon Kintzler 52.3 228 14.0% 5.3% .301 3.96 4.12 92 97
Buddy Boshers 55.7 243 22.6% 9.5% .304 4.04 3.59 94 84
Jason Wheeler 140.3 627 14.5% 6.7% .304 5.26 4.99 123 117
J.T. Chargois 61.7 275 20.4% 10.2% .309 4.23 4.11 99 97
David Hurlbut 116.3 522 11.3% 5.9% .306 5.26 4.95 123 116
Ryan O’Rourke 44.0 192 24.0% 9.9% .294 4.30 4.08 100 96
Edward Mujica 53.3 230 17.0% 4.3% .304 4.39 4.21 102 99
Tyler Jay 126.0 582 11.2% 8.4% .310 5.36 5.45 125 128
Felix Jorge 138.7 617 13.5% 5.5% .305 5.39 5.07 126 119
Nick Greenwood 97.3 430 11.2% 4.2% .303 5.27 4.94 123 116
Henry Centeno 97.3 450 14.2% 10.2% .307 5.36 5.30 125 125
Randy Rosario 79.0 367 13.9% 10.4% .311 5.35 5.06 125 119
Zack Jones 35.7 165 25.4% 16.4% .300 4.54 4.56 106 107
Logan Darnell 94.3 431 13.7% 8.8% .305 5.34 5.12 124 120
Alex Wimmers 81.7 371 17.8% 10.2% .305 5.07 4.75 118 112
Kohl Stewart 123.7 580 11.2% 10.9% .305 5.46 5.33 127 125
Jake Reed 66.3 296 17.6% 8.8% .309 4.61 4.22 107 99
Drew Rucinski 131.7 596 15.4% 7.5% .313 5.47 4.97 127 117
Aaron Slegers 131.0 593 13.3% 7.6% .304 5.50 5.17 128 122
Dan Runzler 31.0 149 18.8% 16.8% .304 4.94 4.88 115 115
Yorman Landa 38.3 181 17.1% 14.4% .305 5.17 4.96 120 117
Pat Dean 143.7 647 12.2% 5.9% .307 5.58 5.19 130 122
Jim Miller 39.3 174 19.6% 7.5% .305 5.26 4.84 123 114
Mason Melotakis 40.0 186 17.7% 11.3% .311 5.62 5.53 131 130
Alan Busenitz 72.0 329 14.3% 8.5% .310 5.37 5.04 125 119
Pat Light 57.0 268 20.5% 14.6% .305 5.53 5.05 129 119
Nik Turley 59.3 287 17.4% 14.6% .306 6.52 6.33 152 149

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Ervin Santana 156.3 6.97 2.88 1.09 96 2.1 Tim Belcher
Jose Berrios 137.7 7.71 2.68 1.18 93 1.6 LaTroy Hawkins
Kyle Gibson 161.0 6.48 3.07 1.06 90 1.6 Jaime Cocanower
Phil Hughes 109.0 6.69 1.24 1.24 96 1.5 Dave Eiland
Stephen Gonsalves 124.7 8.37 4.84 1.01 91 1.3 David West
Hector Santiago 152.3 7.50 4.02 1.42 86 1.1 Rich Robertson
Tyler Duffey 157.7 7.13 2.40 1.31 85 1.0 Mike Wood
Fernando Romero 125.7 6.23 3.37 1.22 85 0.8 Mario Brito
Adalberto Mejia 97.7 7.37 2.76 1.47 85 0.6 John Peterson
Trevor May 62.7 10.77 3.16 1.00 111 0.6 Jorge Vasquez
Ryan Pressly 66.7 7.83 3.10 0.94 109 0.6 Tim Crabtree
Taylor Rogers 78.0 7.73 2.77 0.92 105 0.5 Tom Thobe
D.J. Baxendale 115.7 6.07 2.57 1.32 83 0.5 Pat Ahearne
Michael Tonkin 68.3 9.09 2.64 1.19 105 0.4 Rich Monteleone
Justin Haley 120.0 6.60 3.83 1.20 81 0.4 Jeff Fulchino
Glen Perkins 41.3 9.15 1.96 1.09 112 0.4 Bob Patterson
Trevor Hildenberger 46.3 8.16 1.75 1.17 106 0.3 John Kelly
Brandon Kintzler 52.3 5.51 2.07 1.03 105 0.3 Clint Brown
Buddy Boshers 55.7 8.89 3.72 0.81 102 0.3 Matt Whisenant
Jason Wheeler 140.3 5.84 2.69 1.48 79 0.2 Heath Phillips
J.T. Chargois 61.7 8.17 4.08 0.88 98 0.2 Mike Schultz
David Hurlbut 116.3 4.57 2.40 1.32 79 0.2 Horacio Ramirez
Ryan O’Rourke 44.0 9.41 3.89 1.23 96 0.1 Tim Young
Edward Mujica 53.3 6.59 1.69 1.35 94 0.1 Jose Bautista
Tyler Jay 126.0 4.64 3.50 1.43 77 0.1 Dusty Bergman
Felix Jorge 138.7 5.39 2.21 1.56 77 0.0 Charlie Scott
Nick Greenwood 97.3 4.44 1.66 1.48 78 0.0 Jeff Ballard
Henry Centeno 97.3 5.92 4.25 1.29 77 0.0 Jeff Fulchino
Randy Rosario 79.0 5.81 4.33 1.14 77 0.0 Ben Kozlowski
Zack Jones 35.7 10.59 6.81 1.01 91 0.0 Brad Voyles
Logan Darnell 94.3 5.63 3.63 1.34 77 0.0 Rick Borchers
Alex Wimmers 81.7 7.27 4.19 1.21 82 -0.1 Tim Lavigne
Kohl Stewart 123.7 4.73 4.58 1.09 76 -0.1 Ken Pumphrey
Jake Reed 66.3 7.06 3.53 0.95 90 -0.1 Joe Davenport
Drew Rucinski 131.7 6.29 3.08 1.44 76 -0.1 Kip Bouknight
Aaron Slegers 131.0 5.43 3.09 1.44 75 -0.2 Kyle Middleton
Dan Runzler 31.0 8.13 7.26 0.87 84 -0.2 Marshall Bridges
Yorman Landa 38.3 7.28 6.11 0.94 80 -0.3 Dave Cole
Pat Dean 143.7 4.95 2.38 1.57 74 -0.4 Scott Downs
Jim Miller 39.3 7.79 2.98 1.60 79 -0.4 Terry Mathews
Mason Melotakis 40.0 7.43 4.73 1.58 73 -0.5 Carl Keliipuleole
Alan Busenitz 72.0 5.88 3.50 1.38 77 -0.6 Elliot Brown
Pat Light 57.0 8.68 6.16 1.26 75 -0.7 Bill Bene
Nik Turley 59.3 7.59 6.37 1.82 63 -0.9 Ryan Wing

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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