2017 ZiPS Projections – New York Mets

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / Oakland / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Only four Mets field players recorded a WAR figure of 2.0 or greater in 2016. According to Dan Szymborski’s computer, six different Mets might be expected to reach that mark in 2017. Yoenis Cespedes (596 PA, 4.1 zWAR) receives the club’s top projection by a full win — and three of the club’s top-four forecasts overall belong to outfielders. One of those additional outfielders is Curtis Granderson (538, 2.3). The other isn’t presumptive right-field starter Jay Bruce (583, 1.2) but rather Michael Conforto (558, 3.0). Conforto, in other words, appears to be a markedly superior option.

ZiPS doesn’t account for the nature of David Wright‘s (331, 1.1) injury over the past couple seasons, only that he’s missed time because of it. Following two abbreviated seasons, Wright unsurprisingly earns a muted playing-time projection for 2017. The rate numbers are predictably modest relative to Wright’s best seasons. He still appears to profile as an average player, though, when he’s on the field.

Pitchers
The projections for the club’s most likely group of five starters don’t seem to be the sort one might expect from a team whose rotation produced the highest WAR figure in the majors last season. ZiPS has already called for the five likely members of the Nationals’ rotation to produce about 19 wins collectively; of the Cubs’ rotation, roughly 16 wins. Here: just 13. The principal causes appear to be both (a) general regression (which is probably inevitable for a team that finishes first in anything) and (b) the departure of Bartolo Colon.

With regard to the bullpen, it features something not unlike a relief ace in Jeurys Familia (76.0 IP, 75 ERA-, 1.0 zWAR), who receives not only the top WAR projection among the club’s relievers, but also the best adjusted ERA. Right-hander Addison Reed (69.1, 79, 0.8) also earns strong marks by both measures.

Bench/Prospects
The Mets appear to feature a rather large collection of competent role players. Juan Lagares (364 PA, 1.5 zWAR) is coupled with Jay Bruce in the depth-chart graphic below, but is more likely to actually appear in center when he plays, moving Granderson over to right. He receives a +8 fielding-runs mark in center. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo (526, 1.8) earns the top wins projection among the club’s rookie-eligible players. The forecast for shortstop Gavin Cecchini (531, 1.6) is also promising.

Robert Gsellman (155.0 IP, 1.4 zWAR) earns the top wins projection among those pitchers not included in the depth-chart graphic below. His cumulative forecast is more promising than Zack Wheeler‘s (97.0, 0.8), although the run-prevention numbers on a per-inning basis are nearly identical.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Mets, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Yoenis Cespedes R 31 LF 596 83 145 29 4 30 95 5 3
Neil Walker B 31 2B 521 65 123 20 2 20 65 3 1
Michael Conforto L 24 LF 558 77 125 29 3 24 80 2 3
Curtis Granderson L 36 CF 538 75 111 22 3 21 57 6 3
Asdrubal Cabrera B 31 SS 558 68 132 29 3 17 63 6 2
Lucas Duda L 31 1B 382 50 79 17 0 20 62 1 1
Brandon Nimmo L 24 CF 526 66 117 18 6 11 51 6 6
Kevin Plawecki R 26 C 399 39 89 17 1 7 42 0 0
Gavin Cecchini R 23 SS 531 65 128 24 3 9 53 3 2
Travis d’Arnaud R 28 C 363 43 82 16 1 10 36 1 0
Juan Lagares R 28 CF 364 39 85 16 3 5 30 7 3
Wilmer Flores R 25 SS 477 56 116 21 2 15 63 1 1
T.J. Rivera R 28 3B 532 57 130 23 2 8 53 3 2
Jose Reyes B 34 SS 456 59 112 19 3 9 39 16 4
Jay Bruce L 30 RF 583 72 129 28 4 22 89 6 3
David Wright R 34 3B 331 38 72 13 1 8 33 4 2
Tomas Nido R 23 C 374 41 80 18 2 9 43 1 1
Rene Rivera R 33 C 277 21 57 11 0 6 33 0 0
Travis Taijeron R 28 RF 469 59 83 23 2 17 59 1 2
Amed Rosario R 21 SS 513 49 110 20 7 5 44 12 6
Matt Reynolds R 26 SS 469 51 96 20 3 6 42 9 3
Johnny Monell L 31 C 375 44 82 15 1 7 42 3 1
Dominic Smith L 22 1B 553 63 132 27 1 13 69 1 1
Eric Campbell R 30 1B 387 47 79 14 2 7 39 7 3
Kelly Johnson L 35 2B 310 31 68 12 1 11 38 3 1
Roger Bernadina L 33 CF 340 34 63 13 2 7 32 9 3
Ty Kelly B 28 2B 438 50 92 16 2 6 39 4 4
Victor Cruzado B 25 LF 390 41 75 12 3 7 35 3 5
Xorge Carrillo R 28 C 295 31 58 11 0 5 26 0 1
Phillip Evans R 24 SS 419 40 93 20 1 5 37 1 1
Niuman Romero B 32 SS 365 34 76 14 1 2 22 2 3
Luis Guillorme L 22 SS 537 48 112 17 2 1 35 7 5
Raywilly Gomez B 27 C 185 17 42 7 0 1 12 1 0
Marc Krauss L 29 1B 337 37 61 12 1 11 37 2 1
L.J. Mazzilli R 26 2B 461 47 96 18 3 6 40 5 3
Jhoan Urena B 22 3B 403 42 82 17 3 8 42 1 1
David Thompson R 23 3B 418 46 89 21 2 9 47 4 0
Matt Oberste R 25 1B 457 48 99 19 3 9 47 1 2
Wuilmer Becerra R 22 RF 400 40 87 18 2 7 40 8 4
Champ Stuart R 24 CF 446 40 63 8 4 7 29 18 4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Yoenis Cespedes 596 6.5% 21.0% .233 .290 .266 .317 .498 .341
Neil Walker 521 8.1% 18.0% .179 .288 .263 .329 .442 .330
Michael Conforto 558 9.0% 22.2% .215 .285 .251 .324 .466 .336
Curtis Granderson 538 11.3% 21.7% .195 .270 .238 .331 .433 .330
Asdrubal Cabrera 558 6.8% 18.3% .169 .292 .259 .316 .428 .320
Lucas Duda 382 11.8% 24.9% .235 .274 .242 .343 .477 .344
Brandon Nimmo 526 9.5% 23.6% .134 .316 .249 .328 .384 .316
Kevin Plawecki 399 6.3% 16.5% .110 .279 .245 .302 .354 .284
Gavin Cecchini 531 7.2% 13.7% .117 .292 .262 .316 .378 .305
Travis d’Arnaud 363 7.4% 18.2% .145 .281 .248 .309 .393 .302
Juan Lagares 364 4.4% 19.5% .109 .302 .251 .291 .361 .284
Wilmer Flores 477 5.2% 14.5% .158 .278 .262 .303 .420 .307
T.J. Rivera 532 3.9% 16.4% .103 .300 .262 .299 .364 .288
Jose Reyes 456 6.8% 12.9% .124 .291 .267 .316 .391 .314
Jay Bruce 583 8.1% 22.8% .193 .282 .244 .305 .437 .313
David Wright 331 11.2% 23.9% .134 .311 .247 .332 .380 .315
Tomas Nido 374 3.5% 21.7% .138 .264 .225 .254 .362 .266
Rene Rivera 277 6.1% 23.5% .115 .279 .226 .281 .341 .265
Travis Taijeron 469 10.0% 38.8% .190 .307 .202 .294 .393 .300
Amed Rosario 513 5.5% 23.8% .103 .297 .230 .275 .333 .273
Matt Reynolds 469 6.2% 25.4% .102 .291 .223 .276 .326 .270
Johnny Monell 375 6.7% 20.8% .110 .285 .237 .291 .347 .280
Dominic Smith 553 6.3% 18.6% .133 .298 .258 .306 .391 .300
Eric Campbell 387 10.3% 20.2% .116 .282 .234 .324 .350 .304
Kelly Johnson 310 7.4% 21.9% .166 .277 .240 .300 .406 .306
Roger Bernadina 340 8.8% 28.8% .126 .283 .209 .288 .334 .280
Ty Kelly 438 10.7% 17.4% .099 .282 .240 .323 .339 .299
Victor Cruzado 390 9.2% 26.7% .111 .282 .214 .288 .326 .276
Xorge Carrillo 295 5.8% 20.7% .097 .259 .216 .276 .312 .261
Phillip Evans 419 5.5% 20.8% .095 .292 .238 .282 .332 .270
Niuman Romero 365 8.5% 17.8% .067 .280 .232 .298 .299 .268
Luis Guillorme 537 6.7% 17.7% .049 .283 .231 .285 .280 .255
Raywilly Gomez 185 8.1% 13.5% .060 .289 .251 .315 .311 .280
Marc Krauss 337 11.0% 29.4% .159 .266 .206 .297 .365 .292
L.J. Mazzilli 461 6.9% 21.0% .099 .279 .227 .283 .326 .272
Jhoan Urena 403 6.5% 24.1% .125 .273 .219 .270 .344 .270
David Thompson 418 4.3% 24.9% .134 .286 .230 .271 .364 .275
Matt Oberste 457 5.5% 23.6% .123 .288 .233 .278 .356 .276
Wuilmer Becerra 400 4.3% 26.3% .113 .299 .230 .266 .343 .272
Champ Stuart 446 7.2% 47.3% .092 .298 .156 .224 .248 .222

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Yoenis Cespedes 596 5.8 120 9 4.1 Willie Horton
Neil Walker 521 5.4 110 -1 3.0 Ken McMullen
Michael Conforto 558 5.4 114 3 3.0 Ryan Ludwick
Curtis Granderson 538 5.1 108 -7 2.3 Steve Finley
Asdrubal Cabrera 558 5.0 103 -9 2.3 Hector Lopez
Lucas Duda 382 5.8 123 1 2.0 Bob Hamelin
Brandon Nimmo 526 4.4 95 -3 1.8 Rich Becker
Kevin Plawecki 399 3.8 80 1 1.6 Jason Jaramillo
Gavin Cecchini 531 4.3 90 -6 1.6 Aaron Hill
Travis d’Arnaud 363 4.4 92 -4 1.5 Randy Hundley
Juan Lagares 364 3.8 78 8 1.5 Juan Beniquez
Wilmer Flores 477 4.6 96 -8 1.4 Mike Lowell
T.J. Rivera 532 4.0 81 2 1.4 Scott Livingstone
Jose Reyes 456 4.8 93 -9 1.3 Joe Stripp
Jay Bruce 583 4.8 101 -5 1.2 Garrett Jones
David Wright 331 4.5 96 -3 1.1 Billy Johnson
Tomas Nido 374 3.2 67 3 1.0 Walt McKeel
Rene Rivera 277 3.3 70 3 0.9 Nelson Santovenia
Travis Taijeron 469 3.8 87 2 0.9 Wes Clements
Amed Rosario 513 3.2 67 2 0.7 Carlos Garcia
Matt Reynolds 469 3.2 65 2 0.7 Travis Dawkins
Johnny Monell 375 3.6 75 -4 0.7 Ed Ott
Dominic Smith 553 4.3 90 2 0.7 Billy Butler
Eric Campbell 387 4.0 86 2 0.6 Chris Sheff
Kelly Johnson 310 4.4 92 -6 0.5 Travis Fryman
Roger Bernadina 340 3.4 71 1 0.5 Dann Howitt
Ty Kelly 438 3.8 83 -6 0.5 Todd Crosby
Victor Cruzado 390 3.0 69 8 0.4 Ntema Ndungidi
Xorge Carrillo 295 2.9 62 0 0.3 Pedro Grifol
Phillip Evans 419 3.3 69 -2 0.3 Tim Naehring
Niuman Romero 365 3.0 65 -1 0.2 Kevin Baez
Luis Guillorme 537 2.7 57 3 0.2 Mike Bordick
Raywilly Gomez 185 3.6 74 -4 0.1 Michel Hernandez
Marc Krauss 337 3.7 81 1 0.1 Jay Gainer
L.J. Mazzilli 461 3.2 67 -1 0.0 Doug Saunders
Jhoan Urena 403 3.2 68 -2 0.0 Scott White
David Thompson 418 3.6 73 -5 -0.1 Brant Ust
Matt Oberste 457 3.4 73 -1 -0.8 Scott Hodges
Wuilmer Becerra 400 3.2 66 -3 -0.9 Mauricio Nunez
Champ Stuart 446 2.0 30 -3 -2.1 Travis Ezi

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Noah Syndergaard R 24 32 31 188.7 224 43 18 159 65 61
Jacob deGrom R 29 26 26 163.0 162 41 16 146 64 60
Steven Matz L 26 24 24 138.0 141 39 15 126 57 53
Matt Harvey R 28 23 23 141.0 112 45 13 127 64 60
Robert Gsellman R 23 28 28 155.0 124 47 18 153 76 71
Jeurys Familia R 27 76 0 76.0 80 28 6 63 27 25
Addison Reed R 28 72 0 69.3 77 17 7 60 26 24
Zack Wheeler R 27 17 17 97.0 85 42 11 95 48 45
Hansel Robles R 26 66 0 69.7 80 26 8 57 29 27
Sean Gilmartin L 27 35 15 106.7 89 33 13 106 56 52
Josh Smoker L 28 60 0 65.7 83 24 8 55 28 26
Seth Lugo R 27 31 22 131.7 104 39 20 133 72 67
Fernando Salas R 32 68 0 64.0 65 16 8 57 29 27
Jerry Blevins L 33 48 0 32.3 38 12 3 27 14 13
Corey Taylor R 24 49 0 58.3 41 19 5 58 27 25
Jon Niese L 30 30 23 143.3 102 47 21 151 80 75
Josh Edgin L 30 51 0 37.7 39 19 4 33 17 16
Ben Rowen R 28 48 0 59.7 41 15 5 60 28 26
Chasen Bradford R 27 56 0 70.7 53 15 7 72 33 31
Paul Sewald R 27 51 0 59.0 66 20 8 52 28 26
Kevin McGowan R 25 37 8 87.0 68 34 10 87 47 44
Jeff Walters R 29 26 0 26.3 21 8 3 26 14 13
Erik Goeddel R 28 55 0 61.3 61 27 7 55 31 29
David Roseboom L 25 66 0 66.3 59 29 8 63 34 32
Zack Thornton R 29 48 0 54.7 44 20 6 54 29 27
Chris Flexen R 22 21 19 100.0 68 46 13 105 60 56
Luis Mateo R 27 40 0 49.7 35 17 6 52 27 25
Ricky Knapp R 25 24 20 130.0 83 41 18 142 77 72
Duane Below L 31 18 15 99.7 66 23 18 110 60 56
Logan Taylor R 25 53 0 69.3 73 38 8 63 36 34
Tim Peterson R 26 37 0 48.7 54 18 8 45 27 25
Adam Wilk L 29 21 19 113.0 79 31 19 123 68 64
Jim Henderson R 34 40 0 35.7 38 17 6 35 21 20
Gabriel Ynoa R 24 30 25 154.0 87 41 23 172 92 86
Rafael Montero R 26 26 21 108.3 94 52 16 109 66 62
Tyler Pill R 27 24 23 132.0 96 42 20 140 80 75
Cory Burns R 29 40 0 63.0 46 20 9 65 35 33
Chase Huchingson L 28 35 0 39.3 36 30 5 37 26 24
Beck Wheeler R 28 43 0 52.7 59 34 8 48 32 30
Darin Gorski L 29 19 17 91.3 73 41 17 96 60 56
Josh Zeid R 30 28 8 68.0 56 37 12 71 46 43
Rainy Lara R 26 23 22 113.0 69 41 22 129 80 75

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Noah Syndergaard 188.7 768 29.2% 5.6% .294 2.91 2.75 73 66
Jacob deGrom 163.0 676 24.0% 6.1% .286 3.31 3.27 84 78
Steven Matz 138.0 579 24.4% 6.7% .293 3.46 3.47 87 83
Matt Harvey 141.0 595 18.8% 7.6% .271 3.83 3.80 97 91
Robert Gsellman 155.0 665 18.6% 7.1% .287 4.12 4.08 104 98
Jeurys Familia 76.0 319 25.1% 8.8% .281 2.96 3.13 75 75
Addison Reed 69.3 285 27.0% 6.0% .290 3.12 2.88 79 69
Zack Wheeler 97.0 428 19.9% 9.8% .295 4.18 4.33 105 104
Hansel Robles 69.7 292 27.4% 8.9% .278 3.49 3.50 88 84
Sean Gilmartin 106.7 459 19.4% 7.2% .292 4.39 4.11 111 99
Josh Smoker 65.7 276 30.1% 8.7% .297 3.56 3.38 90 81
Seth Lugo 131.7 567 18.3% 6.9% .285 4.58 4.58 116 110
Fernando Salas 64.0 265 24.5% 6.0% .280 3.80 3.44 96 82
Jerry Blevins 32.3 136 27.9% 8.8% .293 3.62 2.97 91 71
Corey Taylor 58.3 252 16.3% 7.5% .288 3.86 3.92 97 94
Jon Niese 143.3 628 16.2% 7.5% .287 4.71 4.71 119 113
Josh Edgin 37.7 165 23.6% 11.5% .284 3.82 4.09 96 98
Ben Rowen 59.7 254 16.1% 5.9% .289 3.92 3.66 99 88
Chasen Bradford 70.7 299 17.7% 5.0% .294 3.95 3.70 100 89
Paul Sewald 59.0 249 26.5% 8.0% .289 3.97 3.78 100 91
Kevin McGowan 87.0 382 17.8% 8.9% .291 4.55 4.46 115 107
Jeff Walters 26.3 113 18.6% 7.1% .288 4.44 4.10 112 98
Erik Goeddel 61.3 266 22.9% 10.2% .284 4.26 4.00 107 96
David Roseboom 66.3 291 20.3% 10.0% .286 4.34 4.33 110 104
Zack Thornton 54.7 238 18.5% 8.4% .291 4.45 4.10 112 98
Chris Flexen 100.0 451 15.1% 10.2% .289 5.04 5.08 127 122
Luis Mateo 49.7 218 16.1% 7.8% .291 4.53 4.44 114 106
Ricky Knapp 130.0 573 14.5% 7.2% .293 4.98 4.84 126 116
Duane Below 99.7 432 15.3% 5.3% .288 5.06 5.05 128 121
Logan Taylor 69.3 309 23.6% 12.3% .296 4.41 4.40 111 105
Tim Peterson 48.7 209 25.8% 8.6% .294 4.62 4.40 117 105
Adam Wilk 113.0 493 16.0% 6.3% .291 5.10 4.93 129 118
Jim Henderson 35.7 159 23.9% 10.7% .299 5.05 4.67 127 112
Gabriel Ynoa 154.0 675 12.9% 6.1% .289 5.03 4.95 127 119
Rafael Montero 108.3 486 19.3% 10.7% .291 5.15 4.84 130 116
Tyler Pill 132.0 578 16.6% 7.3% .291 5.11 4.82 129 115
Cory Burns 63.0 274 16.8% 7.3% .287 4.71 4.63 119 111
Chase Huchingson 39.3 185 19.5% 16.2% .288 5.49 5.45 139 131
Beck Wheeler 52.7 240 24.6% 14.2% .294 5.13 4.97 129 119
Darin Gorski 91.3 411 17.8% 10.0% .287 5.52 5.52 139 132
Josh Zeid 68.0 312 17.9% 11.9% .291 5.69 5.55 144 133
Rainy Lara 113.0 509 13.6% 8.1% .288 5.97 5.72 151 137

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Noah Syndergaard 188.7 10.69 2.05 0.86 129 4.7 Dwight Gooden
Jacob deGrom 163.0 8.94 2.26 0.88 113 3.2 Charles Nagy
Steven Matz 138.0 9.20 2.54 0.98 108 2.4 Steve Avery
Matt Harvey 141.0 7.15 2.87 0.83 98 1.8 Dick Ruthven
Robert Gsellman 155.0 7.20 2.73 1.05 91 1.4 Steve Fireovid
Jeurys Familia 76.0 9.47 3.32 0.71 127 1.0 Hector Carrasco
Addison Reed 69.3 10.00 2.21 0.91 120 0.8 Dave Schmidt
Zack Wheeler 97.0 7.89 3.90 1.02 90 0.8 Tim Leary
Hansel Robles 69.7 10.33 3.36 1.03 107 0.5 Bobby Castillo
Sean Gilmartin 106.7 7.51 2.78 1.10 85 0.4 Jeff Musselman
Josh Smoker 65.7 11.38 3.29 1.10 105 0.4 John Grabow
Seth Lugo 131.7 7.11 2.67 1.37 82 0.3 Ryan Franklin
Fernando Salas 64.0 9.14 2.25 1.13 99 0.2 Rusty Meacham
Jerry Blevins 32.3 10.58 3.34 0.84 104 0.2 Lance Painter
Corey Taylor 58.3 6.33 2.93 0.77 97 0.1 Ehren Wassermann
Jon Niese 143.3 6.40 2.95 1.32 80 0.1 Huck Flener
Josh Edgin 37.7 9.32 4.54 0.96 98 0.1 Arnold Earley
Ben Rowen 59.7 6.18 2.26 0.75 96 0.1 Casey Cox
Chasen Bradford 70.7 6.75 1.91 0.89 95 0.0 John Doherty
Paul Sewald 59.0 10.07 3.05 1.22 94 0.0 Gene Harris
Kevin McGowan 87.0 7.03 3.52 1.03 82 -0.1 Luis Estrella
Jeff Walters 26.3 7.18 2.73 1.03 84 -0.2 Gary Ross
Erik Goeddel 61.3 8.95 3.96 1.03 88 -0.2 Steve Wapnick
David Roseboom 66.3 8.01 3.93 1.09 86 -0.3 Chad Brown
Zack Thornton 54.7 7.24 3.29 0.99 84 -0.3 Cary Hiles
Chris Flexen 100.0 6.12 4.14 1.17 74 -0.3 Jeff Fulchino
Luis Mateo 49.7 6.34 3.08 1.09 83 -0.4 Bill McAfee
Ricky Knapp 130.0 5.75 2.84 1.25 75 -0.4 Nick Blackburn
Duane Below 99.7 5.96 2.08 1.63 74 -0.4 Brian Tollberg
Logan Taylor 69.3 9.48 4.93 1.04 85 -0.4 Eddy Rodriguez
Tim Peterson 48.7 9.99 3.33 1.48 81 -0.4 Jim Miller
Adam Wilk 113.0 6.29 2.47 1.51 74 -0.5 Dave Gassner
Jim Henderson 35.7 9.59 4.29 1.51 74 -0.5 Archie Corbin
Gabriel Ynoa 154.0 5.08 2.40 1.34 75 -0.5 Chris Rauth
Rafael Montero 108.3 7.81 4.32 1.33 73 -0.5 Carl Dale
Tyler Pill 132.0 6.55 2.86 1.36 73 -0.6 John Lackey
Cory Burns 63.0 6.57 2.86 1.29 79 -0.6 Jason Karnuth
Chase Huchingson 39.3 8.24 6.86 1.14 68 -0.8 Tom Doyle
Beck Wheeler 52.7 10.08 5.81 1.37 73 -0.8 Calvin Jones
Darin Gorski 91.3 7.19 4.04 1.68 68 -0.9 Dan Smith
Josh Zeid 68.0 7.41 4.90 1.59 66 -1.0 Chris Hook
Rainy Lara 113.0 5.50 3.27 1.75 63 -1.8 Scott Bakkum

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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