2017 ZiPS Projections – New York Yankees

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
This Yankees club — on the field-playing side, at least — offers an almost perfect case study in the Completely Average. Five of the club’s nine likely starters — Starlin Castro (624 PA, 2.1 zWAR), Jacoby Ellsbury (561, 2.1), Brett Gardner (587, 2.0), Chase Headley (531, 2.2), and Aaron Judge (522, 2.2) — are projected by Dan Szymborski’s computer to produce between 2.0 and 2.2 wins in 2017. A sixth, Didi Gregorius (586, 2.5), is only a tenth of a win from rounding down to two.

Even the more extremes cases preserve the equilibrium. On the strength both of his youth and a fantastic debut, catcher Gary Sanchez (499, 4.0) earns the club’s top projection. The team’s array of first basemen and DHs, meanwhile, offset whatever surplus wins Sanchez provides. The result, once again, is vehemently average.

Pitchers
The 2016 Yankees featured two of baseball’s most prominent FIP underpeformers. Michael Pineda recorded an ERA about a run higher than his fielding-independent numbers suggested he should; Luis Severino, about one-and-a-half runs higher. The result: a discrepancy between that version of WAR calculated by way of FIP and the other sort, calculated by way of runs allowed. Unsurprisingly, ZiPS calls for regression all the way around, calling for slightly less strong fielding-independent performances from the pair, coupled with slightly better run-prevention. Because the latter metric is the one that actually descibes what occurs on the field, this would seem to represent a net-win for the club.

As for the bullpen, it’s hardly a surprise to find that it’s a strength. The combination of Dellin Betances (76.2 IP, 1.9 zWAR) and Aroldis Chapman (57.2, 1.4), in particular, appears to represent the strongest relief twosome in the majors — or the strongest of all those considered in this series of ZiPS projections so far, at least. By comparison, Cody Allen (67.0, 1.1) and Andrew Miller (62.0, 1.9) are forecast to record 0.3 fewer wins.

Bench/Prospects
In outfielder Clint Frazier (555 PA, 1.9 zWAR), New York has of the top rookie-eligible players in baseball, according to Szymborski’s model. Acquired in the deal that sent Andrew Miller to Cleveland, Frazier has produced above-average power numbers in the minors while also experiencing periodic issues with contact. ZiPS calls for more of the same (.195 ISO, 30.1% K). Combined with roughly average center-field defense, however, the result is a roughly average major leaguer.

Among pitchers, there doesn’t appear to be much depth. Right-hander Bryan Mitchell (80.0 IP, -0.6 zWAR) is a candidate to join the rotation; his projection for 2017 is decidely not promising, however. While the bullpen doesn’t feature a wealth of minor-league options, either, there is Jonathan Holder (67.0 IP, 0.6 zWAR). Recognized in late November by Jeff Sullivan as the most dominant pitcher in the minors, Holder receives the club’s third-best ERA projection (85 ERA-) after Betances and Chapman.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Yankees, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

yanks-depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Gary Sanchez R 24 C 499 66 116 24 1 27 82 5 1
Didi Gregorius L 27 SS 586 64 141 26 3 15 63 5 1
Chase Headley B 33 3B 531 59 117 20 1 13 54 4 2
Aaron Judge R 25 RF 522 71 107 20 2 30 83 4 1
Starlin Castro R 27 2B 624 64 160 29 2 18 78 5 3
Jacoby Ellsbury L 33 CF 561 66 134 21 4 9 51 23 6
Brett Gardner L 33 LF 587 76 130 22 6 11 50 15 4
Clint Frazier R 22 CF 555 65 120 24 4 22 67 10 5
Rob Refsnyder R 26 3B 507 59 115 23 2 10 50 8 3
Kyle Higashioka R 27 C 384 44 88 19 2 13 55 0 1
Matt Holliday R 37 DH 329 35 71 15 1 14 52 1 0
Mark Teixeira B 37 1B 395 42 79 16 0 18 54 2 0
Miguel Andujar R 22 3B 576 62 132 25 4 17 69 5 3
Ronald Torreyes R 24 3B 379 40 93 15 4 3 29 5 4
Donovan Solano R 29 3B 439 43 105 18 2 6 44 1 1
Billy Butler R 31 DH 459 46 111 22 0 12 58 0 0
Gregory Bird L 24 1B 397 50 83 20 1 18 57 1 1
Aaron Hicks B 27 CF 438 47 91 17 3 10 43 7 4
Tyler Wade L 22 SS 582 59 119 16 4 8 39 20 10
Alex Rodriguez R 41 DH 348 38 70 11 0 16 52 3 0
Austin Romine R 28 C 262 28 60 14 0 6 34 1 0
Mike Ford L 24 1B 386 45 85 16 1 12 46 1 1
Dustin Ackley L 29 LF 276 34 63 12 2 8 44 3 2
Jorge Saez R 26 C 235 22 44 8 0 4 24 1 1
Tyler Austin R 25 1B 459 54 96 20 2 18 59 5 2
Pete Kozma R 29 SS 372 37 71 14 0 3 24 7 3
Dustin Fowler L 22 CF 582 59 137 24 7 14 67 20 11
Mark Payton L 25 LF 437 46 92 16 4 10 45 7 5
Billy McKinney L 22 RF 494 52 105 21 3 8 47 2 5
Mason Williams L 25 CF 352 34 76 14 3 4 26 7 5
Jonathan Diaz R 32 2B 373 32 69 10 1 2 22 4 3
Ruben Tejada R 27 SS 357 34 74 16 1 4 29 1 1
Ike Davis L 30 1B 316 33 62 14 0 11 37 0 1
Eric Young Jr. B 32 LF 362 43 71 10 3 2 24 20 6
Gleyber Torres R 20 SS 552 58 112 21 4 11 55 13 14
Jake Cave L 24 LF 547 54 114 21 5 9 47 7 5
Jorge Mateo R 22 SS 529 51 108 17 5 10 46 34 17
Jose Rosario R 25 2B 334 31 73 12 2 5 29 6 5
Nick Swisher B 36 1B 306 29 61 10 0 10 36 0 0
Dante Bichette Jr. R 24 1B 474 46 94 20 2 11 48 2 2
Abiatal Avelino R 22 2B 556 57 122 23 2 10 47 22 18
Cito Culver R 24 SS 481 42 85 16 2 6 35 5 3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Gary Sanchez 499 7.2% 23.4% .235 .283 .255 .313 .490 .342
Didi Gregorius 586 5.1% 15.2% .142 .286 .262 .308 .404 .305
Chase Headley 531 9.0% 22.2% .129 .301 .247 .324 .376 .309
Aaron Judge 522 8.6% 34.3% .244 .293 .229 .301 .473 .329
Starlin Castro 624 4.2% 18.1% .147 .307 .272 .305 .419 .311
Jacoby Ellsbury 561 7.5% 14.6% .110 .296 .263 .322 .373 .314
Brett Gardner 587 10.1% 19.3% .132 .304 .254 .336 .386 .321
Clint Frazier 555 7.4% 30.1% .195 .308 .238 .299 .433 .319
Rob Refsnyder 507 8.1% 19.1% .125 .297 .252 .318 .377 .307
Kyle Higashioka 384 5.5% 22.7% .173 .286 .245 .286 .418 .300
Matt Holliday 329 9.1% 20.1% .203 .268 .244 .325 .447 .329
Mark Teixeira 395 10.9% 23.0% .203 .254 .228 .316 .431 .319
Miguel Andujar 576 4.7% 19.4% .156 .277 .245 .285 .401 .298
Ronald Torreyes 379 4.5% 9.2% .091 .287 .266 .306 .357 .292
Donovan Solano 439 3.9% 17.3% .097 .296 .255 .287 .352 .275
Billy Butler 459 8.3% 17.4% .140 .304 .268 .331 .408 .317
Gregory Bird 397 8.8% 28.5% .215 .286 .234 .307 .449 .323
Aaron Hicks 438 9.4% 21.5% .135 .278 .233 .304 .368 .299
Tyler Wade 582 7.0% 23.5% .091 .286 .224 .284 .315 .277
Alex Rodriguez 348 9.8% 26.1% .192 .265 .228 .307 .420 .312
Austin Romine 262 4.6% 19.5% .130 .283 .244 .280 .374 .279
Mike Ford 386 9.6% 18.7% .157 .278 .248 .321 .405 .315
Dustin Ackley 276 7.2% 15.9% .159 .274 .251 .307 .410 .312
Jorge Saez 235 6.8% 34.5% .093 .303 .205 .261 .298 .249
Tyler Austin 459 8.5% 30.9% .188 .302 .231 .298 .419 .313
Pete Kozma 372 6.5% 21.0% .067 .261 .209 .268 .276 .248
Dustin Fowler 582 3.3% 21.0% .144 .290 .246 .272 .390 .296
Mark Payton 437 7.6% 22.4% .137 .284 .234 .296 .371 .292
Billy McKinney 494 8.1% 24.7% .114 .303 .235 .300 .349 .287
Mason Williams 352 6.3% 17.9% .099 .279 .235 .282 .334 .274
Jonathan Diaz 373 8.8% 20.4% .055 .272 .214 .294 .269 .254
Ruben Tejada 357 8.4% 17.9% .095 .279 .234 .308 .329 .275
Ike Davis 316 11.4% 26.3% .170 .274 .224 .310 .394 .304
Eric Young Jr. 362 7.5% 20.4% .068 .276 .219 .284 .287 .266
Gleyber Torres 552 6.9% 30.8% .123 .309 .221 .279 .344 .286
Jake Cave 547 6.0% 27.2% .115 .300 .225 .277 .340 .274
Jorge Mateo 529 4.9% 28.5% .115 .291 .218 .259 .333 .280
Jose Rosario 334 2.7% 22.8% .098 .287 .230 .260 .328 .263
Nick Swisher 306 8.5% 26.5% .145 .273 .222 .291 .367 .285
Dante Bichette Jr. 474 7.4% 26.8% .132 .279 .217 .278 .349 .277
Abiatal Avelino 556 5.0% 20.5% .110 .282 .236 .278 .346 .292
Cito Culver 481 6.2% 34.1% .086 .285 .191 .243 .277 .232

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Gary Sanchez 499 5.6 120 -1 4.0 Chris Hoiles
Didi Gregorius 586 4.6 97 -1 2.5 Jeff Treadway
Chase Headley 531 4.4 96 4 2.2 Dave Hollins
Aaron Judge 522 5.0 112 3 2.2 Jesse Barfield
Starlin Castro 624 4.7 100 -1 2.1 Bret Boone
Jacoby Ellsbury 561 4.6 94 1 2.1 Milt Thompson
Brett Gardner 587 4.8 102 4 2.0 Phil Bradley
Clint Frazier 555 4.6 102 -3 1.9 Dave Henderson
Rob Refsnyder 507 4.4 94 -2 1.4 Chris Snopek
Kyle Higashioka 384 4.2 94 -4 1.3 Chris Widger
Matt Holliday 329 5.2 109 0 0.9 Kevin Millar
Mark Teixeira 395 4.8 107 1 0.9 Kevin Millar
Miguel Andujar 576 4.1 89 -4 0.9 Howard Battle
Ronald Torreyes 379 3.9 85 2 0.8 Placido Polanco
Donovan Solano 439 3.6 78 5 0.8 Garth Iorg
Billy Butler 459 5.0 106 0 0.8 Keith Moreland
Gregory Bird 397 4.8 108 0 0.8 Mo Vaughn
Aaron Hicks 438 3.9 87 -2 0.8 Paul Householder
Tyler Wade 582 3.1 68 3 0.7 Justin Sellers
Alex Rodriguez 348 4.6 101 0 0.5 Jeff Manto
Austin Romine 262 3.8 81 -3 0.4 Willie Morales
Mike Ford 386 4.6 102 -1 0.4 Bo Dodson
Dustin Ackley 276 4.5 98 -1 0.4 Stu Pederson
Jorge Saez 235 2.6 56 3 0.3 Dave Liddell
Tyler Austin 459 4.4 98 -1 0.3 Ben Johnson
Pete Kozma 372 2.6 53 7 0.3 Les Dennis
Dustin Fowler 582 3.8 82 -4 0.3 Jim Steels
Mark Payton 437 3.8 85 3 0.3 Drew Macias
Billy McKinney 494 3.5 81 5 0.2 Craig Cooper
Mason Williams 352 3.2 72 2 0.2 Cory Sullivan
Jonathan Diaz 373 2.7 59 4 0.1 Rabbit Warstler
Ruben Tejada 357 3.5 75 -5 0.0 Woody Woodward
Ike Davis 316 4.2 95 -2 -0.1 Mark Johnson
Eric Young Jr. 362 3.1 61 7 -0.1 Esix Snead
Gleyber Torres 552 3.0 73 -5 -0.1 Wil Cordero
Jake Cave 547 3.2 72 6 -0.3 Johan Limonta
Jorge Mateo 529 3.0 64 -3 -0.3 Julio Lugo
Jose Rosario 334 2.9 63 -1 -0.5 Frank Moore
Nick Swisher 306 3.7 83 -3 -0.6 Carl Everett
Dante Bichette Jr. 474 3.3 74 3 -0.7 Angel Molina
Abiatal Avelino 556 3.1 74 -6 -0.7 Jorge Sequea
Cito Culver 481 2.2 45 2 -1.0 Jake Wald

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Masahiro Tanaka R 28 27 27 165.7 150 31 22 159 72 67
Michael Pineda R 28 28 28 156.7 164 33 20 153 74 69
Dellin Betances R 29 70 0 76.7 127 30 7 49 21 20
Luis Severino R 23 33 26 152.0 145 46 20 149 76 71
Aroldis Chapman L 29 59 0 57.7 95 23 6 38 16 15
Nathan Eovaldi R 27 24 23 132.3 112 41 18 136 71 66
CC Sabathia L 36 21 21 124.0 103 40 18 130 67 63
Chad Green R 26 25 24 128.7 118 41 21 135 72 67
Jonathan Holder R 24 55 0 67.0 75 15 9 61 29 27
Jordan Montgomery L 24 24 24 125.7 106 49 19 131 73 68
Tyler Clippard R 32 67 0 61.3 70 25 9 53 27 25
Adam Warren R 29 56 6 87.0 77 30 12 84 44 41
Dietrich Enns L 26 20 15 81.0 70 42 11 82 46 43
Giovanny Gallegos R 25 41 0 69.7 84 20 11 62 33 31
Tommy Layne L 32 63 0 48.7 46 23 5 45 22 21
Chasen Shreve L 26 57 0 58.0 66 24 9 52 28 26
Richard Bleier L 30 31 13 95.3 42 17 14 114 56 52
Justus Sheffield L 21 22 22 111.3 98 53 17 118 68 64
J.R. Graham R 27 41 0 51.3 45 20 6 52 27 25
Branden Pinder R 28 23 0 30.3 30 11 5 30 16 15
Ben Heller R 25 54 0 50.3 56 25 8 47 27 25
Jason Gurka L 29 32 1 51.3 46 16 8 54 29 27
Chance Adams R 22 26 24 115.0 117 47 23 116 73 68
Johnny Barbato R 24 44 1 61.7 64 30 9 60 34 32
James Reeves L 24 25 8 63.7 63 30 11 64 40 37
Joe Mantiply L 26 52 0 64.7 57 20 9 67 35 33
Luis Cessa R 25 26 22 126.7 97 38 24 139 80 75
Anthony Swarzak R 31 39 8 83.0 63 24 13 90 50 47
Mark Montgomery R 26 41 0 47.3 51 26 7 44 27 25
J.P. Feyereisen R 24 46 0 51.3 59 29 8 47 29 27
Matt Wotherspoon R 25 28 6 76.0 65 34 12 80 47 44
Domingo German R 24 18 18 79.0 59 25 17 91 54 50
Bryan Mitchell R 26 23 16 80.0 64 39 14 87 55 51
Tyler Cloyd R 30 16 15 90.7 62 25 20 107 62 58
Ronald Herrera R 22 24 23 127.7 93 46 24 145 86 80
Eric Ruth R 26 27 12 89.7 67 37 18 102 63 59
Brady Lail R 23 25 24 120.7 71 46 23 142 87 81
Yefrey Ramirez R 23 19 19 93.7 78 36 25 109 74 69
Dan Camarena L 24 26 22 124.7 88 37 29 148 94 88

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Masahiro Tanaka 165.7 687 21.8% 4.5% .285 3.64 3.64 86 83
Michael Pineda 156.7 656 25.0% 5.0% .306 3.96 3.38 93 77
Dellin Betances 76.7 309 41.1% 9.7% .294 2.35 2.19 55 50
Luis Severino 152.0 651 22.3% 7.1% .298 4.20 3.94 99 90
Aroldis Chapman 57.7 234 40.6% 9.8% .296 2.34 2.47 55 56
Nathan Eovaldi 132.3 574 19.5% 7.1% .294 4.49 4.11 106 94
CC Sabathia 124.0 542 19.0% 7.4% .299 4.57 4.42 108 101
Chad Green 128.7 562 21.0% 7.3% .303 4.69 4.47 110 102
Jonathan Holder 67.0 277 27.1% 5.4% .297 3.63 3.42 85 78
Jordan Montgomery 125.7 557 19.0% 8.8% .298 4.87 4.72 115 108
Tyler Clippard 61.3 262 26.7% 9.5% .282 3.67 3.95 86 90
Adam Warren 87.0 375 20.5% 8.0% .285 4.24 4.16 100 95
Dietrich Enns 81.0 367 19.1% 11.4% .297 4.78 4.88 112 112
Giovanny Gallegos 69.7 291 28.9% 6.9% .296 4.00 3.74 94 85
Tommy Layne 48.7 214 21.5% 10.7% .292 3.88 4.03 91 92
Chasen Shreve 58.0 250 26.4% 9.6% .291 4.03 4.19 95 96
Richard Bleier 95.3 417 10.1% 4.1% .295 4.91 4.83 116 110
Justus Sheffield 111.3 505 19.4% 10.5% .305 5.17 4.92 122 112
J.R. Graham 51.3 226 19.9% 8.9% .303 4.38 4.22 103 96
Branden Pinder 30.3 132 22.7% 8.3% .294 4.45 4.46 105 102
Ben Heller 50.3 223 25.1% 11.2% .298 4.47 4.50 105 103
Jason Gurka 51.3 224 20.5% 7.1% .303 4.73 4.33 111 99
Chance Adams 115.0 508 23.0% 9.3% .295 5.32 5.05 125 115
Johnny Barbato 61.7 275 23.3% 10.9% .303 4.67 4.58 110 105
James Reeves 63.7 285 22.1% 10.5% .298 5.23 4.88 123 112
Joe Mantiply 64.7 281 20.3% 7.1% .304 4.59 4.22 108 96
Luis Cessa 126.7 557 17.4% 6.8% .293 5.33 5.08 125 116
Anthony Swarzak 83.0 363 17.4% 6.6% .296 5.10 4.53 120 103
Mark Montgomery 47.3 212 24.1% 12.3% .294 4.75 4.59 112 105
J.P. Feyereisen 51.3 230 25.7% 12.6% .298 4.73 4.59 111 105
Matt Wotherspoon 76.0 342 19.0% 9.9% .300 5.21 4.91 123 112
Domingo German 79.0 353 16.7% 7.1% .298 5.70 5.51 134 126
Bryan Mitchell 80.0 366 17.5% 10.7% .298 5.74 5.36 135 122
Tyler Cloyd 90.7 404 15.3% 6.2% .298 5.76 5.60 136 128
Ronald Herrera 127.7 574 16.2% 8.0% .299 5.64 5.34 133 122
Eric Ruth 89.7 408 16.4% 9.1% .299 5.92 5.63 139 129
Brady Lail 120.7 550 12.9% 8.4% .294 6.04 5.70 142 130
Yefrey Ramirez 93.7 426 18.3% 8.4% .299 6.63 6.25 156 143
Dan Camarena 124.7 559 15.7% 6.6% .299 6.35 5.78 149 132

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Masahiro Tanaka 165.7 8.15 1.68 1.19 111 3.3 Chris Bosio
Michael Pineda 156.7 9.42 1.90 1.15 102 2.5 Kevin Tapani
Dellin Betances 76.7 14.90 3.52 0.82 173 1.9 Jim Kern
Luis Severino 152.0 8.59 2.72 1.18 97 1.9 Mike Witt
Aroldis Chapman 57.7 14.82 3.59 0.94 173 1.4 Billy Wagner
Nathan Eovaldi 132.3 7.62 2.79 1.22 90 1.2 Mike Thurman
CC Sabathia 124.0 7.48 2.90 1.31 89 1.0 Mike Flanagan
Chad Green 128.7 8.25 2.87 1.47 87 0.8 Travis Thompson
Jonathan Holder 67.0 10.07 2.01 1.21 112 0.6 Manuel Corpas
Jordan Montgomery 125.7 7.59 3.51 1.36 83 0.5 Randy Flores
Tyler Clippard 61.3 10.28 3.67 1.32 111 0.5 Turk Wendell
Adam Warren 87.0 7.97 3.10 1.24 96 0.5 Tony Fiore
Dietrich Enns 81.0 7.78 4.67 1.22 85 0.4 Jeff Tabaka
Giovanny Gallegos 69.7 10.85 2.58 1.42 101 0.3 Pat Neshek
Tommy Layne 48.7 8.50 4.25 0.92 104 0.3 Bill Kennedy
Chasen Shreve 58.0 10.24 3.72 1.40 101 0.2 Armando Almanza
Richard Bleier 95.3 3.97 1.61 1.32 83 0.2 Jim Merritt
Justus Sheffield 111.3 7.92 4.29 1.37 78 0.1 Eric Hillman
J.R. Graham 51.3 7.89 3.51 1.05 93 0.0 Casey Daigle
Branden Pinder 30.3 8.91 3.27 1.49 91 0.0 Derrick Turnbow
Ben Heller 50.3 10.02 4.47 1.43 91 -0.1 Josh Banks
Jason Gurka 51.3 8.07 2.81 1.40 86 -0.2 Mark Holzemer
Chance Adams 115.0 9.16 3.68 1.80 76 -0.2 Claudio Vargas
Johnny Barbato 61.7 9.34 4.38 1.31 87 -0.2 Joe Valentine
James Reeves 63.7 8.90 4.24 1.55 78 -0.2 Dean Brueggemann
Joe Mantiply 64.7 7.93 2.78 1.25 88 -0.2 Kevin Ool
Luis Cessa 126.7 6.89 2.70 1.70 76 -0.2 J.D. Smart
Anthony Swarzak 83.0 6.83 2.60 1.41 80 -0.2 Dickie Noles
Mark Montgomery 47.3 9.70 4.95 1.33 85 -0.3 Josh Banks
J.P. Feyereisen 51.3 10.35 5.09 1.40 86 -0.3 Josh Banks
Matt Wotherspoon 76.0 7.70 4.03 1.42 78 -0.3 Tim Lavigne
Domingo German 79.0 6.72 2.85 1.94 71 -0.5 Mitch Atkins
Bryan Mitchell 80.0 7.20 4.39 1.58 71 -0.6 Ken Luckham
Tyler Cloyd 90.7 6.15 2.48 1.98 70 -0.6 Allen Davis
Ronald Herrera 127.7 6.55 3.24 1.69 72 -0.7 Vance Cozier
Eric Ruth 89.7 6.72 3.71 1.81 69 -1.0 Shawn Bryant
Brady Lail 120.7 5.29 3.43 1.71 67 -1.3 Mark Mangum
Yefrey Ramirez 93.7 7.49 3.46 2.40 61 -1.7 Rod Steph
Dan Camarena 124.7 6.35 2.67 2.09 64 -1.8 Kerry Knox

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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