2017 ZiPS Projections – Oakland Athletics

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Oakland Athletics. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / Miami / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Yesterday, in these pages, Jeff Sullivan wrote a brief post entitled “How Much Hope Do the Bad Teams Have?” In it, he examined the end-of-season outcomes for clubs that had received uninspiring preseason projections. It’s likely that Sullivan’s post has some relevance to this Oakland club as it’s currently constructed.

According to Dan Szymborski’s computer, only two field players, Marcus Semien (627 PA, 2.7 zWAR) and Stephen Vogt (467, 2.1), are expected to exceed the two-win threshold, typically the mark of an average player. By comparison, the Milwaukee Brewers — a club definitively in the midst of a rebuild — feature six field players forecast for two or more wins. Minnesota also has six. San Diego, five.

One, searching for optimism, might note that a number of Oakland’s starters — Rajai Davis (410, 1.1) and Jed Lowrie (399, 0.4), for instance — receive only modest plate-appearance projections, and thus better prorated figures. That said, the playing-time numbers are based on sums from previous seasons, too, which themselves have been modest due either to injury or role.

Pitchers
While also lacking anything like an elite projection, the starting rotation appears more likely to produce something in the average range. Sonny Gray (159.1, 2.3 zWAR) and Sean Manaea (146.0, 2.3) both receive better than a two-win forecast, while Jharel Cotton (138.2, 1.9) and Kendall Graveman (158.1, 1.6) are in proximity of same. Andrew Triggs (66.2, 0.6), meanwhile, is treated mostly like a reliever because he’s been mostly a reliever since entering pro ball in 2012. Prorated to a starter’s load, though, his projection is more appealing.

As for the bullpen, what it lacks in a definitive relief ace it possesses in competent depth. There are a number of decent arms here. Indeed, four relievers — Santiago Casilla (51.3, 82 ERA-), Sean Doolittle (41.0, 82), Ryan Dull (68.2, 84), and Liam Hendriks (67.2, 82) — receive a park-adjusted ERA projection 15% lower (i.e. better) than league average.

Bench/Prospects
While some of the rebuilding clubs cited above feature dynamic young talent — think Lewis Brinson in Milwaukee or Manuel Margot in San Diego — Oakland has less of it. Third-base prospect Matt Chapman (451 PA, 1.9 zWAR) earns the top wins projection among players absent from the depth chart below. It appears as though he could be a useful piece for the club almost immediately. After him, though, the collection of major-league-ready talent is relegated mostly to Matt Olson (572, 1.0) and Joey Wendle (571, 1.3). Each has his own strengths, of course, but neither is indicative of a “wave” of talent making its way to the majors.

In terms of pitching, veteran right-hander Cesar Valdez (110.0 IP, 1.1 zWAR) receives the top win projection among the pitchers excluded from the depth chart below. Frankie Montas (32.0 IP, 0.4 zWAR), who arrived in Oakland from the Dodgers, has encouraging rate figures, including the fourth-best ERA projection (84 ERA-) on the club. Injuries have been troublesome for him.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the A’s, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Marcus Semien R 26 SS 627 77 139 27 4 21 70 11 3
Stephen Vogt L 32 C 467 50 109 22 3 14 55 0 1
Matt Chapman R 24 3B 451 57 88 19 3 20 56 4 2
Khris Davis R 29 LF 529 71 116 23 2 27 81 4 2
Ryon Healy R 25 3B 615 73 154 36 2 21 75 1 1
Joey Wendle L 27 2B 571 64 129 29 5 12 60 8 3
Trevor Plouffe R 31 3B 489 52 110 24 2 14 62 1 1
Rajai Davis R 36 CF 410 54 94 18 4 7 35 29 7
Josh Phegley R 29 C 267 32 58 15 1 7 36 0 0
Jake Smolinski R 28 CF 432 46 97 21 2 10 45 5 2
Matt Olson L 23 RF 572 70 110 33 1 19 65 2 0
Renato Nunez R 23 3B 534 66 122 23 1 23 72 2 0
Bruce Maxwell L 26 C 373 36 81 15 1 7 36 0 1
Matt Joyce L 32 RF 375 45 74 16 1 11 44 2 3
Jermaine Curtis R 29 3B 318 35 69 11 0 5 28 4 1
Yonder Alonso L 30 1B 434 48 102 24 1 7 46 4 2
Sam Fuld L 35 CF 241 25 47 9 3 3 21 8 2
Chris Parmelee L 29 1B 342 38 75 16 0 12 38 1 1
Ryan Lavarnway R 29 C 286 27 60 12 0 5 23 0 0
Jaff Decker L 27 CF 405 45 81 16 2 8 35 11 5
Max Schrock L 22 2B 535 59 132 24 3 8 52 12 5
Matt McBride R 32 C 298 32 69 18 1 7 30 1 1
Jed Lowrie B 33 2B 399 40 90 18 1 6 36 0 0
Chad Pinder R 25 SS 484 53 106 23 2 12 48 5 3
Brett Eibner R 28 CF 418 45 83 15 2 12 41 6 2
Josh Rodriguez R 32 2B 414 45 81 15 1 9 39 5 3
Franklin Barreto R 21 SS 501 55 114 21 3 11 47 17 13
Mark Canha R 28 1B 317 38 69 14 1 10 40 3 1
Yairo Munoz R 22 SS 513 52 115 20 3 10 49 8 7
Richie Martin R 22 SS 448 46 88 14 4 4 32 11 13
B.J. Boyd L 23 LF 527 52 124 15 3 5 41 10 6
Kenny Wilson R 27 CF 487 48 96 18 3 5 35 21 9
Rangel Ravelo R 25 1B 419 48 93 22 2 8 44 3 2
Jaycob Brugman L 25 CF 576 55 119 25 5 10 54 5 5
James Harris R 23 CF 521 54 112 20 3 5 38 13 12
Tyler Ladendorf R 29 2B 211 21 42 7 1 2 14 1 1
Max Muncy L 26 LF 437 47 83 15 2 9 39 3 1
Bryan Anderson L 30 C 236 23 44 11 1 5 22 0 0
Andrew Lambo L 28 LF 236 27 51 11 2 7 20 1 1
Tyler Marincov R 25 RF 541 54 105 20 2 11 48 9 7
J.P. Sportman R 25 LF 489 45 104 18 4 4 37 12 4
Viosergy Rosa L 27 1B 515 50 92 20 0 10 46 1 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Marcus Semien 627 8.6% 22.2% .173 .288 .245 .312 .417 .319
Stephen Vogt 467 7.7% 16.5% .165 .281 .256 .315 .421 .313
Matt Chapman 451 7.8% 33.0% .207 .279 .214 .279 .421 .301
Khris Davis 529 7.4% 25.1% .226 .276 .243 .306 .469 .331
Ryon Healy 615 4.9% 21.3% .179 .310 .267 .305 .445 .318
Joey Wendle 571 4.0% 22.2% .140 .292 .240 .278 .380 .286
Trevor Plouffe 489 7.2% 19.6% .157 .282 .247 .303 .404 .304
Rajai Davis 410 5.4% 19.5% .123 .294 .247 .293 .370 .309
Josh Phegley 267 5.2% 18.4% .155 .266 .237 .286 .392 .291
Jake Smolinski 432 6.7% 17.8% .140 .282 .247 .309 .388 .307
Matt Olson 572 11.4% 27.4% .184 .277 .220 .310 .404 .307
Renato Nunez 534 4.7% 21.3% .188 .270 .244 .285 .433 .305
Bruce Maxwell 373 7.5% 22.3% .111 .291 .237 .295 .348 .283
Matt Joyce 375 14.4% 23.2% .163 .286 .236 .349 .399 .328
Jermaine Curtis 318 9.4% 13.8% .094 .279 .250 .341 .344 .308
Yonder Alonso 434 8.3% 12.9% .120 .285 .260 .323 .380 .308
Sam Fuld 241 9.1% 16.6% .112 .256 .220 .294 .332 .281
Chris Parmelee 342 8.2% 22.2% .168 .281 .242 .307 .410 .310
Ryan Lavarnway 286 8.4% 20.6% .105 .282 .233 .304 .337 .285
Jaff Decker 405 10.4% 22.2% .124 .281 .228 .311 .352 .298
Max Schrock 535 4.3% 10.5% .107 .279 .261 .295 .368 .296
Matt McBride 298 5.4% 17.1% .147 .279 .248 .292 .396 .298
Jed Lowrie 399 7.8% 15.3% .106 .283 .250 .312 .356 .287
Chad Pinder 484 3.9% 25.8% .139 .294 .233 .273 .372 .283
Brett Eibner 418 8.6% 26.8% .146 .278 .220 .288 .366 .288
Josh Rodriguez 414 9.2% 26.8% .119 .286 .220 .294 .339 .284
Franklin Barreto 501 4.8% 22.4% .128 .296 .244 .286 .372 .300
Mark Canha 317 7.3% 24.6% .161 .295 .242 .307 .404 .310
Yairo Munoz 513 4.3% 20.3% .115 .282 .237 .272 .353 .278
Richie Martin 448 7.1% 23.7% .084 .286 .218 .291 .303 .281
B.J. Boyd 527 5.3% 18.2% .074 .305 .254 .298 .327 .281
Kenny Wilson 487 7.0% 26.7% .088 .294 .217 .279 .305 .273
Rangel Ravelo 419 6.7% 18.4% .132 .285 .245 .305 .377 .296

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Marcus Semien 627 4.7 102 -4 2.7 Tim Teufel
Stephen Vogt 467 4.8 104 -5 2.1 Johnny Roseboro
Matt Chapman 451 4.0 92 6 1.9 Kevin Eberwein
Khris Davis 529 5.1 113 -2 1.8 Pete Incaviglia
Ryon Healy 615 5.0 106 -9 1.7 Jorge Cantu
Joey Wendle 571 3.8 82 5 1.3 Jose Nieves
Trevor Plouffe 489 4.4 96 -3 1.2 Rick Schu
Rajai Davis 410 4.3 84 0 1.1 Shawon Dunston
Josh Phegley 267 4.0 87 1 1.1 Scott Servais
Jake Smolinski 432 4.3 94 -3 1.0 Barry Bonnell
Matt Olson 572 4.4 98 -1 1.0 Paul Sorrento
Renato Nunez 534 4.4 97 -7 1.0 Dale Berra
Bruce Maxwell 373 3.6 79 0 1.0 Alberto Castillo
Matt Joyce 375 4.8 109 -3 0.8 Mark Leonard
Jermaine Curtis 318 4.3 93 -2 0.8 Paul Schaal
Yonder Alonso 434 4.5 96 2 0.6 Larry Sutton
Sam Fuld 241 3.6 75 3 0.6 Mike Kingery
Chris Parmelee 342 4.4 98 1 0.6 Ivan Cruz
Ryan Lavarnway 286 3.6 80 -3 0.6 Dave Toth
Jaff Decker 405 3.9 86 -3 0.5 Drew Macias
Max Schrock 535 4.0 84 -5 0.5 Tom Foley
Matt McBride 298 4.1 90 -7 0.4 Randy Knorr
Jed Lowrie 399 4.0 87 -3 0.4 Dennis Hocking
Chad Pinder 484 3.6 78 -4 0.4 Brian Barden
Brett Eibner 418 3.7 82 -3 0.3 Kurt Airoso
Josh Rodriguez 414 3.4 77 0 0.3 Shanie Dugas
Franklin Barreto 501 3.6 82 -7 0.2 Greg Gagne
Mark Canha 317 4.5 97 -2 0.2 Steve Stanicek
Yairo Munoz 513 3.3 73 -2 0.2 Ozzie Chavez
Richie Martin 448 2.7 67 2 0.2 Jerry Bertolani
B.J. Boyd 527 3.5 75 5 0.0 Mamon Tucker
Kenny Wilson 487 3.0 64 3 0.0 Maiko Loyola
Rangel Ravelo 419 4.1 90 -2 -0.2 Jamie D’Antona
Jaycob Brugman 576 3.3 76 -5 -0.3 Chris Lubanski
James Harris 521 3.2 74 -4 -0.3 Mike Neill
Tyler Ladendorf 211 2.6 55 1 -0.4 Chris Petersen
Max Muncy 437 3.6 80 -4 -0.4 Kevin Burford
Bryan Anderson 236 2.9 65 -6 -0.4 Chad Moeller
Andrew Lambo 236 4.0 89 -6 -0.5 Matt Luke
Tyler Marincov 541 2.9 65 -2 -1.6 Aaron Royster
J.P. Sportman 489 2.9 58 -1 -1.6 Dave Oliva
Viosergy Rosa 515 2.9 65 -5 -1.9 Steve Carver

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Sonny Gray R 27 26 26 159.3 137 52 17 155 75 70
Sean Manaea L 25 27 26 146.0 132 42 17 140 67 63
Jharel Cotton R 25 23 23 138.7 136 48 16 133 66 62
Kendall Graveman R 26 28 27 158.3 97 43 18 171 81 76
Cesar Valdez R 32 22 17 110.0 76 18 14 121 56 52
Liam Hendriks R 28 57 0 67.7 71 14 6 63 27 25
Chris Bassitt R 28 16 13 82.7 66 32 9 85 43 40
Daniel Mengden R 24 28 27 145.3 121 55 17 150 81 76
Ryan Dull R 27 61 0 68.7 70 18 9 61 28 26
Josh Smith R 29 33 17 126.3 98 46 15 133 68 64
Andrew Triggs R 28 42 3 66.7 57 18 6 65 30 28
Henderson Alvarez R 27 15 15 73.0 42 18 10 84 39 36
Zach Neal R 28 29 21 137.7 72 23 19 158 77 72
Dillon Overton L 25 27 24 133.0 91 36 18 148 75 70
Santiago Casilla R 36 53 0 51.3 46 16 6 47 20 19
Chris Smith R 36 23 16 101.3 85 40 14 102 56 52
Sean Doolittle L 30 44 0 41.0 54 8 6 33 16 15
Simon Castro R 29 49 0 59.3 60 17 7 57 26 24
Jesse Hahn R 27 22 21 105.3 71 44 12 112 60 56
Daniel Gossett R 24 26 26 135.0 100 55 17 146 78 73
Frankie Montas R 24 37 0 32.0 37 14 3 27 13 12
Ryan Madson R 36 46 0 44.7 39 13 5 44 19 18
Daniel Coulombe L 27 54 0 65.7 71 29 6 58 30 28
Paul Blackburn R 23 24 23 118.0 72 35 16 138 68 64
Donn Roach R 27 29 20 125.7 59 33 14 147 73 68
Michael Brady R 30 27 11 80.3 59 17 12 89 45 42
Felix Doubront L 29 18 14 80.7 62 33 10 87 47 44
Grant Holmes R 21 23 23 127.0 98 59 16 140 76 71
Tucker Healy R 27 46 0 54.0 58 28 6 49 27 25
John Axford R 34 62 0 60.0 54 28 6 59 30 28
Raul Alcantara R 24 25 25 114.7 69 29 19 131 70 65
Ben Bracewell R 26 32 5 59.3 37 22 7 64 33 31
Jake Sanchez R 27 56 0 69.7 56 24 8 72 35 33
J.B. Wendelken R 24 71 0 76.3 58 23 8 84 40 37
Tyler Sturdevant R 31 41 0 46.3 42 17 6 47 25 23
Colt Hynes L 32 43 0 48.3 41 14 7 51 26 24
Bobby Wahl R 25 39 0 44.7 46 27 5 42 25 23
Aaron Kurcz R 26 46 0 59.3 50 27 7 59 32 30
Ryan Brasier R 29 35 0 45.0 39 16 7 46 26 24
Carlos Navas R 24 48 0 63.3 53 30 7 64 35 33
Brandon Mann L 33 13 8 51.0 42 23 10 56 34 32
Eduard Santos R 27 44 1 54.7 55 36 7 52 32 30
Ross Detwiler L 31 36 12 89.0 57 36 12 102 56 52
Cody Stull L 25 42 0 63.3 44 24 8 68 36 34
Ryan Doolittle R 29 35 0 49.0 34 19 8 55 31 29
Trey Cochran-Gill R 24 44 0 70.3 46 33 8 76 43 40
Joel Seddon R 24 29 21 121.3 59 43 19 143 80 75
Angel Castro R 34 33 8 76.7 45 30 13 90 51 48
Heath Fillmyer R 23 25 23 112.7 73 59 17 127 76 71
Sam Bragg R 24 40 1 67.0 57 27 12 71 43 40
Kyle Finnegan R 25 34 13 86.7 53 51 16 101 65 61

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Sonny Gray 159.3 685 20.0% 7.6% .290 3.95 3.81 98 92
Sean Manaea 146.0 620 21.3% 6.8% .289 3.88 3.74 96 91
Jharel Cotton 138.7 597 22.8% 8.0% .299 4.02 3.81 100 92
Kendall Graveman 158.3 689 14.1% 6.2% .292 4.32 4.29 107 104
Cesar Valdez 110.0 469 16.1% 3.8% .301 4.25 3.92 105 95
Liam Hendriks 67.7 280 25.4% 5.0% .305 3.33 2.78 82 67
Chris Bassitt 82.7 365 18.1% 8.8% .300 4.35 4.27 108 103
Daniel Mengden 145.3 641 18.9% 8.6% .302 4.71 4.22 117 102
Ryan Dull 68.7 285 24.6% 6.3% .280 3.41 3.47 84 84
Josh Smith 126.3 558 17.6% 8.2% .300 4.56 4.29 113 104
Andrew Triggs 66.7 283 20.1% 6.4% .296 3.78 3.47 94 84
Henderson Alvarez 73.0 321 13.1% 5.6% .298 4.44 4.56 110 111
Zach Neal 137.7 594 12.1% 3.9% .293 4.71 4.49 117 109
Dillon Overton 133.0 583 15.6% 6.2% .301 4.74 4.44 117 108
Santiago Casilla 51.3 217 21.2% 7.4% .283 3.33 3.89 82 94
Chris Smith 101.3 446 19.1% 9.0% .290 4.62 4.50 114 109
Sean Doolittle 41.0 164 32.9% 4.9% .281 3.29 2.89 82 70
Simon Castro 59.3 252 23.8% 6.7% .303 3.64 3.63 90 88
Jesse Hahn 105.3 472 15.0% 9.3% .294 4.78 4.61 118 112
Daniel Gossett 135.0 606 16.5% 9.1% .304 4.87 4.68 120 114
Frankie Montas 32.0 137 27.0% 10.2% .296 3.37 3.51 84 85
Ryan Madson 44.7 191 20.4% 6.8% .293 3.63 3.62 90 88
Daniel Coulombe 65.7 284 25.0% 10.2% .295 3.84 3.46 95 84
Paul Blackburn 118.0 527 13.7% 6.6% .307 4.88 4.69 121 114
Donn Roach 125.7 557 10.6% 5.9% .300 4.87 4.55 121 110
Michael Brady 80.3 347 17.0% 4.9% .302 4.71 4.29 116 104
Felix Doubront 80.7 362 17.1% 9.1% .302 4.91 4.48 122 109
Grant Holmes 127.0 580 16.9% 10.2% .311 5.03 4.78 125 116
Tucker Healy 54.0 239 24.3% 11.7% .299 4.17 3.96 103 96
John Axford 60.0 267 20.2% 10.5% .301 4.20 4.11 104 100
Raul Alcantara 114.7 504 13.7% 5.8% .296 5.10 5.00 126 121
Ben Bracewell 59.3 264 14.0% 8.3% .292 4.70 4.66 116 113
Jake Sanchez 69.7 305 18.4% 7.9% .300 4.26 4.15 106 101
J.B. Wendelken 76.3 336 17.3% 6.8% .314 4.36 4.05 108 98
Tyler Sturdevant 46.3 203 20.9% 8.2% .300 4.47 4.15 111 101
Colt Hynes 48.3 210 19.5% 6.7% .301 4.47 4.22 111 102
Bobby Wahl 44.7 203 22.7% 13.3% .301 4.63 4.32 115 105
Aaron Kurcz 59.3 264 18.9% 10.2% .294 4.55 4.47 113 108
Ryan Brasier 45.0 197 19.8% 8.1% .293 4.80 4.53 119 110
Carlos Navas 63.3 284 18.7% 10.6% .300 4.69 4.34 116 105
Brandon Mann 51.0 232 18.1% 9.9% .297 5.65 5.48 140 133
Eduard Santos 54.7 252 21.8% 14.3% .298 4.94 4.79 122 116
Ross Detwiler 89.0 405 14.1% 8.9% .305 5.26 4.93 130 119
Cody Stull 63.3 282 15.6% 8.5% .296 4.83 4.64 120 112
Ryan Doolittle 49.0 221 15.4% 8.6% .299 5.33 5.07 132 123
Trey Cochran-Gill 70.3 320 14.4% 10.3% .297 5.12 4.73 127 115
Joel Seddon 121.3 550 10.7% 7.8% .294 5.56 5.36 138 130
Angel Castro 76.7 350 12.9% 8.6% .298 5.63 5.47 139 133
Heath Fillmyer 112.7 524 13.9% 11.3% .299 5.67 5.53 140 134
Sam Bragg 67.0 299 19.1% 9.0% .295 5.37 4.99 133 121
Kyle Finnegan 86.7 412 12.9% 12.4% .296 6.33 6.19 157 150

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Sonny Gray 159.3 7.74 2.94 0.96 100 2.3 Jason Marquis
Sean Manaea 146.0 8.14 2.59 1.05 102 2.3 Randy Tomlin
Jharel Cotton 138.7 8.83 3.12 1.04 98 1.9 Bob Walk
Kendall Graveman 158.3 5.51 2.44 1.02 92 1.6 Dan Freed
Cesar Valdez 110.0 6.19 1.46 1.10 93 1.1 Joe Roa
Liam Hendriks 67.7 9.44 1.86 0.80 119 0.8 Chad Bradford
Chris Bassitt 82.7 7.19 3.48 0.98 91 0.8 Jason Grilli
Daniel Mengden 145.3 7.49 3.41 1.05 84 0.7 John Johnstone
Ryan Dull 68.7 9.17 2.36 1.18 116 0.7 Rod Beck
Josh Smith 126.3 6.98 3.28 1.07 87 0.7 Rick Rodriguez
Andrew Triggs 66.7 7.70 2.43 0.81 105 0.6 Colby Lewis
Henderson Alvarez 73.0 5.18 2.22 1.23 89 0.6 Darrell Rasner
Zach Neal 137.7 4.71 1.50 1.24 84 0.6 Josh Towers
Dillon Overton 133.0 6.16 2.44 1.22 83 0.6 John Rheinecker
Santiago Casilla 51.3 8.06 2.81 1.05 119 0.6 Steve Reed
Chris Smith 101.3 7.55 3.55 1.24 86 0.6 Paul Abbott
Sean Doolittle 41.0 11.85 1.76 1.32 120 0.5 Mike Myers
Simon Castro 59.3 9.10 2.58 1.06 109 0.5 Mark Huismann
Jesse Hahn 105.3 6.07 3.76 1.03 83 0.4 Landon Jacobsen
Daniel Gossett 135.0 6.67 3.67 1.13 81 0.4 Stan Kyles
Frankie Montas 32.0 10.41 3.94 0.84 117 0.4 Bobby Castillo
Ryan Madson 44.7 7.86 2.62 1.01 109 0.4 LaTroy Hawkins
Daniel Coulombe 65.7 9.73 3.97 0.82 103 0.3 Armando Almanza
Paul Blackburn 118.0 5.49 2.67 1.22 81 0.3 Nate Cornejo
Donn Roach 125.7 4.23 2.36 1.00 81 0.3 Benny Frey
Michael Brady 80.3 6.61 1.90 1.34 84 0.2 Kris Wilson
Felix Doubront 80.7 6.92 3.68 1.12 81 0.2 Roger Deago
Grant Holmes 127.0 6.94 4.18 1.13 79 0.1 Rich Loiselle
Tucker Healy 54.0 9.67 4.67 1.00 95 0.1 Brad Voyles
John Axford 60.0 8.10 4.20 0.90 94 0.0 Jim Czajkowski
Raul Alcantara 114.7 5.42 2.28 1.49 78 0.0 Ryan Cox
Ben Bracewell 59.3 5.61 3.34 1.06 84 0.0 Scott Munter
Jake Sanchez 69.7 7.23 3.10 1.03 93 0.0 Todd Williams
J.B. Wendelken 76.3 6.84 2.71 0.94 91 -0.1 Ross Wolf
Tyler Sturdevant 46.3 8.21 3.21 1.25 89 -0.1 Manny Aybar
Colt Hynes 48.3 7.63 2.61 1.30 88 -0.1 Rich Kelley
Bobby Wahl 44.7 9.27 5.44 1.01 85 -0.2 Josh Banks
Aaron Kurcz 59.3 7.58 4.10 1.06 87 -0.2 Joel Moore
Ryan Brasier 45.0 7.80 3.20 1.40 82 -0.3 Roman Colon
Carlos Navas 63.3 7.53 4.26 0.99 84 -0.4 Marc Pisciotta
Brandon Mann 51.0 7.41 4.06 1.76 70 -0.4 Freddie Toliver
Eduard Santos 54.7 9.05 5.93 1.15 80 -0.4 Calvin Jones
Ross Detwiler 89.0 5.76 3.64 1.21 75 -0.4 Jeff Williams
Cody Stull 63.3 6.25 3.41 1.14 82 -0.5 Danny Zell
Ryan Doolittle 49.0 6.24 3.49 1.47 74 -0.7 Chuck Smith
Trey Cochran-Gill 70.3 5.89 4.22 1.02 77 -0.8 Sean Green
Joel Seddon 121.3 4.38 3.19 1.41 71 -0.8 Mark Ratekin
Angel Castro 76.7 5.28 3.52 1.53 70 -0.8 Joe Haynes
Heath Fillmyer 112.7 5.83 4.71 1.36 70 -0.8 Joel Santo
Sam Bragg 67.0 7.66 3.63 1.61 74 -0.9 Jeff Smith
Kyle Finnegan 86.7 5.50 5.30 1.66 62 -1.6 Mumba Rivera

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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