2017 ZiPS Projections – San Diego Padres

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Chicago NL / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Were one to have followed major-league baseball with some vigor through the 2014 season but then entered a coma at the end of that season but then just exited that coma this morning, that would constitute an unsual series of events. It would also uniquely qualify the nearly awakened to comment on the relative inexperience of the Padres’ starting lineup, because basically none of that lineup’s constituent members had appeared in major-league baseball by the end of 2014.

Catcher Derek Norris (450 PA, 1.7 zWAR), who’s recorded fewer than 600 career games (or less than four full seasons’ worth), is the veteran of this club. Wil Myers (621, 3.4) and Yangervis Solarte (519, 2.5) are the only other two projected starters who’ve recorded more than 1,000 career plate appearances. The starting outfielders, meanwhile, have compiled 552 PAs as a group.

Which, a note about San Diego and its outfields. The reader might remember, in 2015, when the Padres fielded an Opening Day alignment (from left to right field) of Justin Upton, Wil Myers, and Matt Kemp, marking one of the worst defensive units in recent memory. The results were not positive. In any case, the current iteration of the Padres outfield represents a great departure from that. Travis Jankowski (404, 1.6) and Manuel Margot (581, 2.6) are projected for +7 and +9 fielding runs in center; Hunter Renfroe (586, 1.5), meanwhile, is forecast to save +6 runs in right.

Pitchers
While San Diego’s field players possess a considerable volume both of youth and promise, the club’s rotation features less of the former and almost none of the latter. Right-hander Tyson Ross (124.2 IP, 1.2 zWAR) has experienced some success when healthy. He recorded only five total innings in 2016, however, before eventually undergoing a procedure for thoracic outlet syndrome that leaves his return questionable for the start of the season. After Ross, there’s little cause for hope.

The bullpen is better by comparison, fronted technically by Brandon Maurer (65.0, -0.1) but in practice — according to ZiPS, at least — by left-hander Brad Hand (81.0, 0.8). For those who remember Hand as a young, soft-tossing starter for the Marlins at the beginning of the decade, this version will be unfamiliar. Working exclusively as a reliever in 2016, Hand recorded an average fastball velocity of 94 mph while striking out just over 30% of the batters he faced.

Bench/Prospects
A number of the young players who might otherwise appear in this space have already been mentioned, on account of they represent the core the major-league club now. With regard to those who haven’t been named, both Christian Bethancourt (348 PA, 1.3 zWAR) and Austin Hedges (368, 2.0) are interesting: neither retain their rookie eligibility, but both seem to possess untapped promise. Except for the latter’s youth, Carlos Asuaje (558, 1.1) and Luis Urias (478, 1.0) are nearly identical players: middle infielders with strong contact skills, if little power. And both offering some use at the major-league level now.

Were one looking for any indication of optimism among the club’s pitching depth, right-hander Dinelson Lamet (135.0 IP, 0.8 zWAR) would seem to be the direction in which one should look. Lamet acquitted himself well as a starter across three levels in 2016.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Padres, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

padres-depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Wil Myers R 26 1B 621 92 143 28 3 25 86 21 5
Manuel Margot R 22 CF 581 66 139 25 9 7 50 27 11
Yangervis Solarte B 29 3B 519 61 127 27 3 13 65 1 1
Ryan Schimpf L 29 2B 466 62 92 24 3 24 64 1 2
Austin Hedges R 24 C 368 43 83 17 1 12 47 1 2
Derek Norris R 28 C 450 53 91 20 1 13 50 6 2
Travis Jankowski L 26 CF 404 50 88 13 4 2 22 26 9
Hunter Renfroe R 25 RF 586 73 132 28 3 23 80 5 2
Christian Bethancourt R 25 C 348 37 81 17 0 8 40 5 3
Jabari Blash R 27 LF 376 50 71 14 1 18 46 4 3
Cory Spangenberg L 26 2B 262 32 61 10 6 4 31 7 3
Carlos Asuaje L 25 2B 558 60 123 23 6 9 50 7 5
Alex Dickerson L 27 LF 457 60 107 25 4 13 59 4 1
Luis Urias R 20 2B 478 56 106 19 4 5 40 7 15
Adam Rosales R 34 3B 250 31 52 10 2 7 26 3 2
Jose Rondon R 23 SS 496 49 113 20 4 6 42 12 8
Rocky Gale R 29 C 340 32 74 11 1 3 26 1 1
Casey McElroy L 27 3B 402 44 85 16 2 5 36 1 2
Josh VanMeter L 22 3B 401 44 86 17 2 9 37 7 4
Brett Wallace L 30 3B 371 40 76 14 0 12 39 0 0
Jose Pirela R 27 LF 369 42 86 16 4 6 33 5 3
Ty France R 22 1B 471 55 95 20 0 11 47 5 7
Jemile Weeks B 30 2B 227 23 45 8 3 1 13 4 1
Javier Guerra L 21 SS 474 46 86 17 2 14 46 4 7
Oswaldo Arcia L 26 RF 373 40 77 14 2 17 48 1 2
Nick Noonan L 28 SS 383 34 77 17 0 4 28 2 2
Jason Hagerty B 29 1B 231 27 48 11 1 6 25 1 1
Alexi Amarista L 28 2B 328 30 71 9 2 4 29 8 1
Michael Gettys R 21 CF 562 55 105 18 4 12 49 18 14
Franchy Cordero L 22 CF 591 59 120 17 9 10 50 16 12
Taylor Lindsey L 25 1B 448 47 92 19 4 9 40 4 3
Stephen McGee R 26 C 221 19 39 8 0 2 15 1 1
Luis Sardinas B 24 SS 484 48 109 17 3 1 35 12 5
Nick Torres R 24 LF 467 45 100 24 2 8 44 6 4
Hector Sanchez B 27 1B 151 13 33 6 0 5 20 0 0
Jamie Romak R 31 1B 336 35 64 16 1 12 37 2 1
Mike Olt R 28 1B 292 32 50 11 0 11 31 1 1
Josh Naylor L 20 1B 547 58 132 26 2 11 57 11 6

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Wil Myers 621 10.0% 24.5% .197 .311 .260 .335 .457 .348
Manuel Margot 581 5.2% 14.3% .118 .290 .257 .298 .375 .307
Yangervis Solarte 519 7.1% 11.9% .153 .284 .269 .326 .422 .322
Ryan Schimpf 466 10.1% 29.0% .249 .269 .225 .313 .474 .333
Austin Hedges 368 4.1% 21.2% .159 .274 .241 .275 .400 .287
Derek Norris 450 8.7% 26.4% .150 .284 .225 .298 .375 .294
Travis Jankowski 404 8.7% 21.5% .075 .313 .242 .312 .317 .301
Hunter Renfroe 586 4.8% 27.6% .186 .295 .240 .278 .426 .300
Christian Bethancourt 348 3.7% 21.8% .125 .293 .245 .274 .370 .281
Jabari Blash 376 10.9% 34.6% .216 .296 .219 .319 .435 .330
Cory Spangenberg 262 7.6% 22.1% .145 .328 .261 .319 .406 .314
Carlos Asuaje 558 7.2% 19.7% .123 .292 .243 .301 .366 .295
Alex Dickerson 457 6.6% 19.9% .172 .297 .257 .313 .429 .315
Luis Urias 478 6.5% 9.4% .099 .266 .248 .314 .347 .303
Adam Rosales 250 8.8% 28.4% .156 .304 .232 .304 .388 .304
Jose Rondon 496 3.8% 17.7% .099 .287 .244 .275 .343 .273
Rocky Gale 340 5.0% 17.4% .071 .280 .236 .282 .307 .256
Casey McElroy 402 7.2% 19.2% .096 .282 .234 .298 .330 .276
Josh VanMeter 401 8.0% 20.4% .131 .279 .235 .298 .366 .295
Brett Wallace 371 7.8% 30.2% .149 .303 .228 .302 .377 .292
Jose Pirela 369 5.4% 15.2% .122 .282 .250 .293 .372 .292
Ty France 471 8.3% 22.9% .128 .284 .231 .319 .359 .309
Jemile Weeks 227 8.8% 18.9% .084 .278 .224 .299 .308 .274
Javier Guerra 474 5.7% 38.2% .143 .290 .195 .242 .338 .257
Oswaldo Arcia 373 7.2% 31.9% .204 .293 .227 .292 .431 .309
Nick Noonan 383 5.0% 26.6% .082 .289 .216 .256 .298 .244
Jason Hagerty 231 7.8% 23.8% .148 .284 .230 .303 .378 .301
Alexi Amarista 328 6.1% 15.5% .083 .269 .237 .283 .320 .262
Michael Gettys 562 4.8% 37.4% .119 .305 .200 .246 .319 .261
Franchy Cordero 591 5.1% 30.3% .118 .301 .217 .263 .335 .270
Taylor Lindsey 448 7.6% 21.9% .133 .274 .225 .287 .358 .283
Stephen McGee 221 9.0% 28.1% .072 .276 .200 .281 .272 .253
Luis Sardinas 484 4.5% 17.8% .057 .293 .241 .278 .298 .258
Nick Torres 467 3.6% 28.3% .118 .304 .227 .266 .345 .270
Hector Sanchez 151 5.3% 22.5% .152 .277 .239 .287 .391 .290
Jamie Romak 336 7.4% 32.4% .177 .277 .209 .271 .386 .285
Mike Olt 292 9.6% 37.3% .168 .273 .192 .271 .360 .278
Josh Naylor 547 4.0% 22.1% .121 .310 .254 .286 .375 .291

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Wil Myers 621 5.8 118 6 3.4 Derrek Lee
Manuel Margot 581 4.2 86 9 2.6 Alexis Rios
Yangervis Solarte 519 5.1 106 -2 2.5 Terry Pendleton
Ryan Schimpf 466 5.1 115 -8 2.0 Mike Pagliarulo
Austin Hedges 368 3.8 85 5 2.0 Mike Rivera
Derek Norris 450 3.9 86 -4 1.7 Marty Castillo
Travis Jankowski 404 3.8 76 7 1.6 Curtis Goodwin
Hunter Renfroe 586 4.2 92 6 1.5 Dante Bichette
Christian Bethancourt 348 3.6 77 3 1.3 Jorge Pedre
Jabari Blash 376 4.7 107 -1 1.3 Brent Cookson
Cory Spangenberg 262 4.8 100 0 1.1 Mariano Duncan
Carlos Asuaje 558 3.9 84 -3 1.1 Chris Pittaro
Alex Dickerson 457 4.9 104 -4 1.0 Troy O’Leary
Luis Urias 478 3.3 84 2 1.0 Erik Laseke
Adam Rosales 250 4.1 91 2 1.0 Dave Matranga
Jose Rondon 496 3.3 70 3 0.9 Mike Huyler
Rocky Gale 340 3.0 64 4 0.9 Brian Loyd
Casey McElroy 402 3.4 74 3 0.8 Lou Merloni
Josh VanMeter 401 3.8 83 -3 0.6 Ken Bonifay
Brett Wallace 371 4.0 87 -5 0.6 Ray Giannelli
Jose Pirela 369 3.9 84 2 0.4 Pat Watkins
Ty France 471 3.8 88 2 0.3 Steve Goodell
Jemile Weeks 227 3.3 70 0 0.2 Frank Kellner
Javier Guerra 474 2.5 59 4 0.2 Justin Lincoln
Oswaldo Arcia 373 4.3 98 -6 0.2 Dann Howitt
Nick Noonan 383 2.6 54 4 0.1 Gary Green
Jason Hagerty 231 4.0 88 -1 0.0 Chris Pritchett
Alexi Amarista 328 3.4 67 -2 -0.1 Donovan Mitchell
Michael Gettys 562 2.5 56 7 -0.1 Andre King
Franchy Cordero 591 2.9 65 2 -0.1 Jimmy White
Taylor Lindsey 448 3.5 78 3 -0.2 Matt Bowser
Stephen McGee 221 2.5 55 -4 -0.3 Jean Boscan
Luis Sardinas 484 3.0 60 -4 -0.3 Curtis Wilkerson
Nick Torres 467 3.2 68 3 -0.4 Steve Murphy
Hector Sanchez 151 4.0 86 -4 -0.5 Dan Dimascio
Jamie Romak 336 3.6 80 -2 -0.5 Dustan Mohr
Mike Olt 292 3.2 73 -2 -0.6 Danny Peoples
Josh Naylor 547 3.9 82 -3 -0.8 Robin Jennings

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Tyson Ross R 30 21 21 124.7 116 55 12 121 60 56
Dinelson Lamet R 24 27 27 135.0 127 68 15 130 70 65
Brad Hand L 27 76 0 81.0 99 32 8 65 31 29
Phil Maton R 24 34 0 44.7 56 12 5 37 16 15
Ryan Buchter L 30 55 0 56.0 67 27 6 45 22 21
Rafael De Paula R 26 46 0 64.7 76 26 6 55 27 25
Carter Capps R 26 25 0 28.3 39 11 3 22 10 9
Kyle McGrath L 24 46 0 65.7 66 14 8 62 28 26
Clayton Richard L 33 27 10 66.0 39 21 7 74 33 31
Colin Rea R 26 23 22 114.3 86 41 14 119 62 58
Kevin Quackenbush R 28 68 0 68.7 64 23 7 64 30 28
Buddy Baumann L 29 36 4 60.0 56 24 6 57 29 27
Paul Clemens R 29 27 16 96.3 79 42 13 99 52 49
Brad Wieck L 25 42 0 52.0 61 27 6 45 24 22
Jon Edwards R 29 28 0 28.3 36 17 3 24 13 12
Cesar Vargas R 25 29 4 60.7 55 21 7 60 31 29
Andrew Lockett R 23 25 22 132.7 85 31 19 147 75 70
Christian Friedrich L 29 41 16 109.0 91 43 13 112 60 56
Jason Jester R 26 40 0 49.7 46 15 6 49 24 22
Keith Hessler L 28 55 0 64.7 60 25 7 64 31 29
Carlos Villanueva R 33 42 0 64.7 56 17 8 65 31 29
Matt Thornton L 40 30 0 23.3 15 8 3 25 12 11
Brandon Morrow R 32 21 6 49.7 35 17 6 53 28 26
Brandon Maurer R 26 66 0 65.0 63 21 7 61 32 30
Jose Ruiz R 22 47 0 39.3 44 22 4 35 20 19
Erik Johnson R 27 21 20 112.3 89 49 16 117 66 62
Jose Torres L 23 54 0 62.3 57 30 7 61 32 30
Daniel Moskos L 31 32 0 37.3 29 16 4 39 20 19
Jarred Cosart R 27 24 24 120.0 81 61 14 125 72 67
Carlos Pimentel R 27 27 23 127.3 104 58 19 133 76 71
Robbie Erlin L 26 14 13 72.3 56 21 12 78 45 42
Justin Hancock R 26 12 12 58.7 38 26 8 66 37 35
Eric Yardley R 26 50 0 66.0 44 20 8 71 35 33
Aaron Northcraft R 27 30 13 92.7 70 41 12 99 56 52
Kyle Lloyd R 26 28 19 117.3 93 49 17 126 71 66
Seth Rosin R 28 28 0 40.3 29 14 6 44 25 23
Luis Perdomo R 24 29 20 132.7 98 44 19 152 80 75
Edwin Jackson R 33 25 22 118.3 82 49 16 127 73 68
Jake Smith R 27 35 0 33.0 33 26 4 32 21 20
Enyel De Los Santos R 21 21 19 93.0 68 38 15 102 60 56
Bryan Rodriguez R 25 25 24 135.7 75 48 18 157 86 80
Michael Kelly R 24 23 22 108.7 81 52 17 119 72 67
Daniel McCutchen R 34 25 20 117.3 70 32 22 138 77 72
Tim Berry L 26 24 17 91.7 60 50 15 105 67 63

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Tyson Ross 124.7 550 21.1% 10.0% .302 4.04 4.00 101 97
Dinelson Lamet 135.0 603 21.1% 11.3% .299 4.33 4.44 108 107
Brad Hand 81.0 340 29.1% 9.4% .285 3.22 3.14 80 76
Phil Maton 44.7 183 30.6% 6.6% .299 3.02 3.14 75 76
Ryan Buchter 56.0 240 27.9% 11.3% .283 3.37 3.63 84 88
Rafael De Paula 64.7 275 27.6% 9.5% .300 3.48 3.43 87 83
Carter Capps 28.3 118 33.1% 9.3% .302 2.86 3.19 71 77
Kyle McGrath 65.7 273 24.2% 5.1% .298 3.56 3.58 89 87
Clayton Richard 66.0 293 13.3% 7.2% .299 4.23 4.34 106 105
Colin Rea 114.3 503 17.1% 8.2% .296 4.57 4.48 114 109
Kevin Quackenbush 68.7 293 21.8% 7.8% .288 3.67 3.57 92 86
Buddy Baumann 60.0 261 21.5% 9.2% .297 4.05 3.92 101 95
Paul Clemens 96.3 430 18.4% 9.8% .296 4.58 4.77 114 115
Brad Wieck 52.0 228 26.8% 11.8% .298 3.81 4.07 95 99
Jon Edwards 28.3 126 28.6% 13.5% .305 3.81 3.93 95 95
Cesar Vargas 60.7 263 20.9% 8.0% .299 4.30 4.01 107 97
Andrew Lockett 132.7 576 14.8% 5.4% .296 4.75 4.65 119 113
Christian Friedrich 109.0 482 18.9% 8.9% .298 4.62 4.28 115 104
Jason Jester 49.7 213 21.6% 7.0% .300 3.99 3.93 100 95
Keith Hessler 64.7 283 21.2% 8.8% .303 4.04 3.94 101 95
Carlos Villanueva 64.7 276 20.3% 6.2% .295 4.04 3.80 101 92
Matt Thornton 23.3 103 14.6% 7.8% .290 4.24 4.60 106 111
Brandon Morrow 49.7 219 16.0% 7.8% .294 4.71 4.43 118 107
Brandon Maurer 65.0 277 22.7% 7.6% .293 4.15 3.57 104 86
Jose Ruiz 39.3 175 25.2% 12.6% .298 4.35 4.03 109 97
Erik Johnson 112.3 503 17.7% 9.7% .294 4.97 4.90 124 119
Jose Torres 62.3 278 20.5% 10.8% .299 4.33 4.36 108 106
Daniel Moskos 37.3 167 17.4% 9.6% .302 4.58 4.47 114 108
Jarred Cosart 120.0 546 14.8% 11.2% .288 5.02 4.95 125 120
Carlos Pimentel 127.3 573 18.2% 10.1% .296 5.02 5.00 125 121
Robbie Erlin 72.3 316 17.7% 6.6% .295 5.23 4.79 131 116
Justin Hancock 58.7 268 14.2% 9.7% .300 5.37 5.09 134 123
Eric Yardley 66.0 289 15.2% 6.9% .294 4.50 4.38 112 106
Aaron Northcraft 92.7 418 16.7% 9.8% .300 5.05 4.82 126 117
Kyle Lloyd 117.3 527 17.7% 9.3% .302 5.06 4.92 126 119
Seth Rosin 40.3 179 16.2% 7.8% .297 5.13 4.80 128 116
Luis Perdomo 132.7 594 16.5% 7.4% .312 5.09 4.63 127 112
Edwin Jackson 118.3 531 15.4% 9.2% .291 5.17 4.80 129 116
Jake Smith 33.0 157 21.0% 16.6% .304 5.45 5.22 136 126
Enyel De Los Santos 93.0 419 16.2% 9.1% .298 5.42 5.24 135 127
Bryan Rodriguez 135.7 612 12.3% 7.8% .300 5.31 5.00 133 121
Michael Kelly 108.7 497 16.3% 10.5% .299 5.55 5.30 139 128
Daniel McCutchen 117.3 522 13.4% 6.1% .296 5.52 5.35 138 130
Tim Berry 91.7 430 14.0% 11.6% .300 6.19 5.80 155 141

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Tyson Ross 124.7 8.37 3.97 0.87 92 1.2 Pat Rapp
Dinelson Lamet 135.0 8.47 4.53 1.00 86 0.8 Larry Mitchell
Brad Hand 81.0 11.00 3.56 0.89 115 0.8 Neal Cotts
Phil Maton 44.7 11.28 2.42 1.01 123 0.6 Edwin Nunez
Ryan Buchter 56.0 10.77 4.34 0.96 110 0.5 J.C. Romero
Rafael De Paula 64.7 10.57 3.62 0.83 107 0.4 Buddy Hernandez
Carter Capps 28.3 12.40 3.50 0.95 130 0.4 Bobby Castillo
Kyle McGrath 65.7 9.04 1.92 1.10 104 0.4 Ryan Meaux
Clayton Richard 66.0 5.32 2.86 0.95 88 0.3 Clarence Mitchell
Colin Rea 114.3 6.77 3.23 1.10 81 0.3 Jeff Paluk
Kevin Quackenbush 68.7 8.38 3.01 0.92 101 0.3 Mike DeJean
Buddy Baumann 60.0 8.40 3.60 0.90 92 0.2 Randy Choate
Paul Clemens 96.3 7.38 3.93 1.21 81 0.2 Hal Griggs
Brad Wieck 52.0 10.56 4.67 1.04 97 0.1 Buzz Oliver
Jon Edwards 28.3 11.45 5.41 0.95 97 0.1 Bart Miadich
Cesar Vargas 60.7 8.15 3.11 1.04 86 0.1 Jason Cole
Andrew Lockett 132.7 5.76 2.10 1.29 78 0.0 Paul Quantrill
Christian Friedrich 109.0 7.51 3.55 1.07 80 0.0 Matt White
Jason Jester 49.7 8.33 2.72 1.09 93 0.0 Barry Johnson
Keith Hessler 64.7 8.35 3.48 0.97 92 0.0 Tim Hamulack
Carlos Villanueva 64.7 7.79 2.36 1.11 92 0.0 Jose Bautista
Matt Thornton 23.3 5.79 3.09 1.16 87 -0.1 Joe Hoerner
Brandon Morrow 49.7 6.34 3.08 1.09 79 -0.1 Jose Santiago
Brandon Maurer 65.0 8.72 2.91 0.97 89 -0.1 Bo McLaughlin
Jose Ruiz 39.3 10.08 5.04 0.92 85 -0.2 Josh Banks
Erik Johnson 112.3 7.13 3.93 1.28 75 -0.3 Darrell Rodgers
Jose Torres 62.3 8.23 4.33 1.01 86 -0.3 Mark Dempsey
Daniel Moskos 37.3 7.00 3.86 0.97 81 -0.3 Joey Eischen
Jarred Cosart 120.0 6.08 4.58 1.05 74 -0.4 Elvin Nina
Carlos Pimentel 127.3 7.35 4.10 1.34 74 -0.4 Ryan Glynn
Robbie Erlin 72.3 6.97 2.61 1.49 71 -0.4 Rich Pratt
Justin Hancock 58.7 5.83 3.99 1.23 69 -0.5 Gary Goldsmith
Eric Yardley 66.0 6.00 2.73 1.09 82 -0.5 Matt Wilhite
Aaron Northcraft 92.7 6.80 3.98 1.17 73 -0.5 Timothy Smith
Kyle Lloyd 117.3 7.14 3.76 1.30 73 -0.5 Chris Enochs
Seth Rosin 40.3 6.48 3.13 1.34 72 -0.6 Alan Benes
Luis Perdomo 132.7 6.65 2.98 1.29 73 -0.6 Matt Childers
Edwin Jackson 118.3 6.24 3.73 1.22 72 -0.6 Russ Ortiz
Jake Smith 33.0 9.00 7.09 1.09 68 -0.7 Johnny Humphries
Enyel De Los Santos 93.0 6.58 3.68 1.45 68 -0.8 Brian Ahern
Bryan Rodriguez 135.7 4.97 3.18 1.19 70 -1.0 Luis Mendoza
Michael Kelly 108.7 6.71 4.31 1.41 67 -1.1 Ryan Glynn
Daniel McCutchen 117.3 5.37 2.46 1.69 67 -1.2 Jose Lima
Tim Berry 91.7 5.89 4.91 1.47 60 -1.8 Matt White

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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