2017 ZiPS Projections – San Francisco Giants

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Francisco Giants. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / San Diego / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
A cursory examination of the club’s field players reveals a theme: almost all of them receive both a better-than-averge (a) strikeout and (b) fielding-runs projection. Nor should this be very surprising: Giants batters produced the second-lowest strikeout rate in the majors last year and the second-most defensive runs. Buster Posey (512 PA, 5.1 zWAR) is well acquitted by both measures. Brandon Crawford (575, 4.3) receives something closer to a league-average strikeout-rate projection; on the defensive side, however, the combination of his fielding mark (+9) and hypothetical positional adjustment (something like +7, probably) produce about 1.5 wins, rendering him league-average player almost without any consideration of his offensive skills.

Overall, the position-player side of things appears well suited to avoiding the awful. If an area of weakness remains, it’s in left field, where Jarrett Parker (449, 1.4) and Mac Williamson (389, 0.6) are expected to form a platoon. Even that combination, though, appears capable of providing wins at a league-average rate.

Pitchers
The average rotation produced roughly 12 wins in 2016. The Giants are in position nearly to reach that mark by means of just their top-two starters, Madison Bumgarner (211.2 IP, 5.5 zWAR) and Johnny Cueto (207.2, 4.7). Whatever the superficial differences between the pitchers, Bumgarner’s and Cueto’s forecasts share a couple of important traits. Both feature an innings mark above 200, a rarity among the pitchers for whom these ZiPS projections have been published so far. Both are also projected to outperform their fielding-independent numbers, each receiving an ERA forecast about 0.3 runs below his FIP.

At the top of the bullpen depth chart appears another pitcher who’s exhibited a real ability to outperform his fielding-independent numbers, the newly acquired Mark Melancon (65.0, 1.4). Dan Szymborski’s computer calls for an ERA over half a run lower than his FIP. Will Smith (56.0, 0.6) and Hunter Strickland (60.0, 0.7) both receive ERA projections 20%-plus lower than league average.

Bench/Prospects
Omitted from the depth-chart image below, outfielder Gorkys Hernandez (452 PA, 1.2 zWAR) is nevertheless a candidate to receive a fair amount of playing time. ZiPS characterizes him as well suited for the role he’ll play: a strong bench option with at least average defense in center. Among the club’s rookie-eligible types, infielders Christian Arroyo (523, 0.8), Miguel Gomez (442, 0.8), and C.J. Hinojosa (528, 0.8) earn the top projections.

As for pitchers, Ty Blach (151.2 IP, 0.9 zWAR), who made his major-league debut last season and appeared fourth on Eric Longenhagen’s Giants list, receives the top overall WAR projection among the rookie-eligible sort. Clayton Blackburn (133.1, 0.8), who didn’t make his debut and also didn’t appear (except as a prospect of note) on Longenhagen’s list, earns the second-best one.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Giants, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

giants-depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Buster Posey R 30 C 512 63 134 25 2 14 71 3 1
Brandon Crawford L 30 SS 575 62 134 26 7 14 78 6 2
Brandon Belt L 29 1B 529 66 121 30 5 16 62 4 3
Joe Panik L 26 2B 554 70 134 25 5 8 56 4 1
Eduardo Nunez R 30 3B 406 47 107 18 4 8 42 22 7
Hunter Pence R 34 RF 457 63 115 21 3 16 62 5 2
Denard Span L 33 CF 535 62 131 22 5 6 38 14 5
Jarrett Parker L 28 RF 449 58 89 15 3 16 51 7 5
Gorkys Hernandez R 29 CF 452 49 101 19 2 6 37 14 7
Tim Federowicz R 29 C 261 26 59 13 0 5 29 1 0
Kelby Tomlinson R 27 2B 453 47 103 14 4 2 31 18 7
Ehire Adrianza B 27 SS 232 23 50 9 1 4 20 4 3
Christian Arroyo R 22 3B 523 49 124 30 2 5 44 2 2
C.J. Hinojosa R 22 SS 528 55 121 24 4 8 46 3 6
Miguel Gomez B 24 3B 442 47 115 20 3 10 49 2 2
Gordon Beckham R 30 2B 354 39 77 19 1 6 36 2 0
Conor Gillaspie L 29 3B 345 34 84 17 4 7 39 1 2
Austin Slater R 24 LF 475 51 106 19 2 11 46 6 6
Mac Williamson R 26 RF 389 46 84 17 1 12 43 4 1
Kyle Blanks R 29 1B 264 32 61 14 0 8 31 1 1
Hak-Ju Lee L 26 SS 278 26 53 9 1 4 19 8 3
Juniel Querecuto B 24 3B 423 41 96 17 4 3 34 3 3
Angel Pagan B 35 LF 473 58 117 20 3 6 39 12 5
Chris Marrero R 28 1B 440 44 106 22 2 12 46 0 0
Diego Goris R 26 3B 439 46 102 17 1 8 43 2 2
Jimmy Rollins B 38 SS 287 38 61 13 2 5 18 6 4
Trevor Brown R 25 C 296 28 65 12 0 4 25 2 2
Wynton Bernard R 26 LF 483 49 110 18 4 5 35 21 9
Grant Green R 29 2B 434 45 108 20 3 6 43 2 3
Gregor Blanco L 33 RF 347 42 78 14 4 3 27 9 4
Ryan Lollis L 30 RF 425 42 95 14 3 4 33 5 2
Ramiro Pena B 31 2B 302 30 72 13 1 3 25 2 3
Steven Lerud L 32 C 208 19 35 6 0 2 13 0 0
Miguel Olivo R 38 C 253 26 49 9 3 8 25 1 0
Darren Ford R 31 LF 385 37 77 10 2 4 25 18 10
Ryder Jones L 23 3B 511 51 115 26 1 12 53 1 3
Orlando Calixte R 25 RF 480 45 102 18 3 7 36 12 6
Carlos Moncrief L 28 LF 368 39 74 14 2 8 34 6 2
Tyler Horan L 26 LF 383 40 74 15 3 11 37 5 5
Dylan Davis R 23 RF 503 57 106 20 3 11 56 3 2
Steven Duggar L 23 RF 576 59 119 22 5 7 45 9 12
Travis Ishikawa L 33 1B 363 36 70 12 0 9 37 0 0
Chris Shaw L 23 1B 559 60 118 27 3 18 61 0 1
Hunter Cole R 24 RF 520 51 110 23 4 11 50 3 4
Jeff Arnold R 29 C 139 11 22 6 1 2 9 1 1
Ricky Oropesa L 27 1B 387 36 73 12 0 11 36 0 0
Angel Villalona R 26 1B 267 24 49 11 1 5 20 0 0

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Buster Posey 512 9.2% 10.4% .156 .304 .295 .359 .451 .343
Brandon Crawford 575 8.5% 19.5% .160 .305 .261 .328 .421 .315
Brandon Belt 529 12.9% 24.0% .193 .334 .267 .365 .460 .357
Joe Panik 554 8.1% 10.5% .119 .289 .269 .332 .388 .311
Eduardo Nunez 406 4.7% 14.3% .132 .313 .283 .319 .415 .331
Hunter Pence 457 7.9% 20.1% .180 .318 .276 .335 .456 .342
Denard Span 535 7.7% 11.0% .102 .296 .270 .328 .372 .313
Jarrett Parker 449 9.8% 36.5% .174 .335 .224 .312 .398 .316
Gorkys Hernandez 452 7.5% 20.6% .100 .305 .248 .310 .348 .299
Tim Federowicz 261 5.7% 25.7% .116 .316 .245 .292 .361 .282
Kelby Tomlinson 453 7.3% 19.0% .069 .312 .251 .312 .320 .291
Ehire Adrianza 232 6.9% 18.5% .111 .286 .242 .304 .353 .292
Christian Arroyo 523 4.2% 19.1% .100 .304 .252 .286 .352 .275
C.J. Hinojosa 528 6.3% 17.4% .115 .290 .248 .297 .363 .291
Miguel Gomez 442 2.7% 14.0% .131 .296 .271 .293 .402 .299
Gordon Beckham 354 6.8% 16.4% .122 .272 .241 .297 .363 .286
Conor Gillaspie 345 6.1% 14.8% .143 .291 .262 .307 .405 .304
Austin Slater 475 7.6% 25.1% .128 .309 .244 .303 .372 .301
Mac Williamson 389 6.9% 27.0% .156 .303 .238 .303 .394 .303
Kyle Blanks 264 7.6% 27.3% .161 .333 .257 .326 .418 .322
Hak-Ju Lee 278 8.3% 29.9% .092 .302 .214 .285 .306 .268
Juniel Querecuto 423 5.4% 20.1% .087 .304 .245 .289 .332 .272
Angel Pagan 473 6.6% 13.7% .100 .300 .268 .315 .368 .306
Chris Marrero 440 6.4% 19.3% .153 .300 .261 .309 .414 .310
Diego Goris 439 2.7% 20.0% .103 .289 .244 .267 .347 .265
Jimmy Rollins 287 8.4% 16.7% .122 .267 .233 .296 .355 .295
Trevor Brown 296 5.4% 18.9% .088 .281 .236 .281 .324 .269
Wynton Bernard 483 6.0% 18.8% .093 .301 .248 .298 .341 .293
Grant Green 434 3.5% 18.4% .107 .309 .262 .289 .369 .287
Gregor Blanco 347 10.1% 17.6% .101 .307 .255 .333 .356 .306
Ryan Lollis 425 6.8% 14.4% .082 .279 .245 .299 .327 .277
Ramiro Pena 302 5.6% 15.2% .087 .300 .261 .305 .348 .283
Steven Lerud 208 10.1% 30.8% .066 .284 .192 .290 .258 .253
Miguel Olivo 253 4.0% 36.0% .163 .291 .205 .242 .368 .261
Darren Ford 385 6.8% 24.2% .074 .284 .219 .275 .293 .271
Ryder Jones 511 3.5% 20.7% .133 .278 .238 .267 .371 .276
Orlando Calixte 480 5.4% 24.8% .101 .296 .230 .272 .331 .269
Carlos Moncrief 368 8.4% 26.6% .128 .292 .224 .293 .352 .283
Tyler Horan 383 7.6% 32.1% .155 .289 .211 .274 .366 .284
Dylan Davis 503 7.4% 29.0% .128 .310 .230 .290 .358 .285
Steven Duggar 576 8.7% 25.7% .102 .304 .229 .299 .331 .289
Travis Ishikawa 363 7.4% 31.1% .119 .295 .215 .285 .334 .271
Chris Shaw 559 5.9% 29.5% .168 .296 .228 .279 .396 .290
Hunter Cole 520 5.2% 28.3% .133 .301 .228 .272 .361 .277
Jeff Arnold 139 5.8% 38.8% .110 .278 .173 .232 .283 .231
Ricky Oropesa 387 6.7% 35.1% .126 .294 .205 .264 .331 .261
Angel Villalona 267 5.2% 33.0% .114 .282 .198 .251 .312 .247

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Buster Posey 512 6.2 121 4 5.1 Thurman Munson
Brandon Crawford 575 5.1 104 9 4.3 Orlando Hudson
Brandon Belt 529 6.1 125 4 3.3 Leon Durham
Joe Panik 554 4.8 97 3 2.8 Alberto Callaspo
Eduardo Nunez 406 5.2 100 4 2.4 Mark DeRosa
Hunter Pence 457 5.7 114 1 2.3 Jermaine Dye
Denard Span 535 4.6 92 -5 1.6 Darryl Hamilton
Jarrett Parker 449 4.2 93 4 1.4 Ty Gainey
Gorkys Hernandez 452 3.9 81 2 1.2 Charles Thomas
Tim Federowicz 261 3.8 78 0 1.0 Dave Parrish
Kelby Tomlinson 453 3.7 74 1 0.9 Pat Austin
Ehire Adrianza 232 3.7 80 2 0.9 Chris Demetral
Christian Arroyo 523 3.6 74 3 0.8 Aurelio Rodriguez
C.J. Hinojosa 528 3.7 80 -5 0.8 Kevin Kouzmanoff
Miguel Gomez 442 4.3 88 -5 0.8 Vic Rodriguez
Gordon Beckham 354 3.9 80 0 0.7 Stu Cole
Conor Gillaspie 345 4.5 94 -5 0.6 Tom Foley
Austin Slater 475 3.9 84 2 0.6 Chad Huffman
Mac Williamson 389 4.3 90 -1 0.6 Steve Stanicek
Kyle Blanks 264 4.9 98 -1 0.6 Jason Dubois
Hak-Ju Lee 278 3.1 63 2 0.5 Lauro Felix
Juniel Querecuto 423 3.3 70 2 0.5 Frank Martinez
Angel Pagan 473 4.3 87 -2 0.4 Jim Piersall
Chris Marrero 440 4.7 96 -2 0.4 Justin Huber
Diego Goris 439 3.3 67 3 0.4 Christopher Johnson
Jimmy Rollins 287 3.6 78 -4 0.4 Casey Candaele
Trevor Brown 296 3.1 66 -2 0.3 David Duff
Wynton Bernard 483 3.7 75 1 0.2 Ed Yacopino
Grant Green 434 3.8 79 -5 0.1 Fred Manrique
Gregor Blanco 347 4.3 90 -4 0.1 Milt Thompson
Ryan Lollis 425 3.5 72 3 0.1 Ryan Fleming
Ramiro Pena 302 3.7 79 -4 0.0 Dave Berg
Steven Lerud 208 2.5 52 -2 0.0 Jayhawk Owens
Miguel Olivo 253 3.1 64 -5 0.0 Hannibal Lechter
Darren Ford 385 2.7 56 9 -0.1 Mike Murphy
Ryder Jones 511 3.4 73 -5 -0.1 Kennedy Infante
Orlando Calixte 480 3.2 65 6 -0.2 Mauricio Nunez
Carlos Moncrief 368 3.7 76 -2 -0.3 Nate Murphy
Tyler Horan 383 3.3 74 0 -0.3 Doug DeVore
Dylan Davis 503 3.6 77 -2 -0.3 Rich Murray
Steven Duggar 576 3.2 73 2 -0.4 Mike Neill
Travis Ishikawa 363 3.3 69 2 -0.4 Alan Cockrell
Chris Shaw 559 3.8 83 -2 -0.4 J.R. Phillips
Hunter Cole 520 3.3 72 0 -0.5 Jose Barrios
Jeff Arnold 139 2.1 41 -4 -0.6 Gary Hymel
Ricky Oropesa 387 3.0 62 -1 -1.2 Juan Richardson
Angel Villalona 267 2.6 53 -2 -1.3 Jose Zambrano

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Madison Bumgarner L 27 32 32 211.7 227 44 22 179 71 66
Johnny Cueto R 31 30 30 207.7 182 48 18 186 75 70
Jeff Samardzija R 32 29 29 188.3 161 44 19 178 79 74
Matt Moore L 28 22 22 125.0 116 51 13 115 57 53
Mark Melancon R 32 70 0 65.0 63 13 5 55 18 17
Jake Peavy R 36 25 21 123.3 98 36 15 125 60 56
Ty Blach L 26 27 26 151.7 94 40 16 163 77 72
Clayton Blackburn R 24 25 22 133.3 95 36 16 142 67 63
Hunter Strickland R 28 68 0 60.0 62 15 6 52 21 20
Will Smith L 27 68 0 56.0 72 23 5 45 20 19
Tyler Beede R 24 24 24 136.7 120 57 16 140 71 66
Sergio Romo R 34 55 0 45.3 51 10 5 39 16 15
Santiago Casilla R 36 53 0 51.3 49 16 5 46 19 18
Cory Taylor R 23 23 23 117.3 93 45 13 124 61 57
Andrew Suarez L 24 23 23 136.3 104 33 19 149 72 67
Albert Suarez R 27 25 19 115.7 78 37 14 122 60 56
Steven Okert L 25 57 0 65.7 70 23 7 60 27 25
Joan Gregorio R 25 27 19 101.7 99 47 13 98 52 49
George Kontos R 32 59 0 60.7 46 18 6 58 25 23
Derek Law R 26 47 0 41.7 41 14 4 38 17 16
Cory Gearrin R 31 47 0 44.7 44 15 5 41 19 18
Matt Cain R 32 19 17 92.7 69 31 13 98 50 47
Chris Stratton R 26 25 22 125.0 95 53 14 130 68 64
Neil Ramirez R 28 38 0 39.0 44 20 4 33 17 16
Bryan Morris R 30 49 0 46.3 37 20 5 46 21 20
Preston Claiborne R 29 40 1 49.3 44 18 6 48 24 22
Dan Slania R 25 46 8 89.0 73 33 11 92 46 43
Joe Nathan R 42 15 0 11.3 13 5 1 10 5 5
Javier Lopez L 39 60 0 24.7 18 11 2 24 12 11
Matt Reynolds L 32 36 0 33.7 30 12 4 33 16 15
Reyes Moronta R 24 55 0 56.7 65 28 6 50 27 25
Kyle Drabek R 29 23 15 96.3 63 41 11 103 54 50
Chase Johnson R 25 24 15 84.7 63 41 9 89 47 44
Jean Machi R 35 52 0 54.7 44 18 6 54 27 25
Kraig Sitton L 28 44 0 54.7 34 17 6 58 27 25
Matt Lujan L 28 17 16 82.0 64 40 11 87 47 44
Josh Osich L 28 60 0 47.7 42 23 5 45 24 22
Christian Jones L 26 39 7 73.3 54 32 8 77 40 37
Sam Coonrod R 24 24 23 119.7 86 59 14 126 68 64
Ricky Romero L 32 4 4 13.7 10 11 2 14 10 9
Nestor Molina R 28 28 10 78.0 56 29 11 83 44 41
Rodolfo Martinez R 23 51 0 52.0 42 24 5 52 27 25
Tyler Rogers R 26 57 0 74.7 55 30 7 76 37 35
Vin Mazzaro R 30 38 2 59.7 41 27 6 63 32 30
Jake Dunning R 28 38 4 64.0 45 27 7 68 35 33
Austin Fleet R 30 26 8 66.3 46 32 8 71 39 36
Ray Black R 27 38 0 32.0 40 27 3 26 18 17
Alex Torres L 29 50 0 43.0 41 30 4 40 24 22
Jose Dominguez R 26 50 0 56.0 48 31 6 54 30 28
Michael Roth L 27 28 20 126.7 75 50 16 140 75 70
Tyler Mizenko R 27 51 0 55.3 36 24 7 61 32 30
Kyle Crick R 24 28 19 89.0 76 73 11 90 59 55
Ian Gardeck R 25 35 0 43.3 38 37 6 45 30 28

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Madison Bumgarner 211.7 858 26.5% 5.1% .281 2.81 3.09 71 78
Johnny Cueto 207.7 857 21.2% 5.6% .280 3.03 3.37 76 85
Jeff Samardzija 188.3 787 20.5% 5.6% .286 3.54 3.55 89 90
Matt Moore 125.0 541 21.4% 9.4% .286 3.82 3.98 96 100
Mark Melancon 65.0 263 24.0% 4.9% .278 2.35 2.89 59 73
Jake Peavy 123.3 531 18.5% 6.8% .291 4.09 4.13 103 104
Ty Blach 151.7 658 14.3% 6.1% .293 4.27 4.23 108 107
Clayton Blackburn 133.3 578 16.4% 6.2% .297 4.25 4.27 107 108
Hunter Strickland 60.0 247 25.1% 6.1% .284 3.00 3.17 76 80
Will Smith 56.0 236 30.5% 9.7% .296 3.05 2.95 77 75
Tyler Beede 136.7 607 19.8% 9.4% .305 4.35 4.38 110 110
Sergio Romo 45.3 185 27.6% 5.4% .288 2.98 3.03 75 77
Santiago Casilla 51.3 216 22.7% 7.4% .289 3.16 3.60 80 91
Cory Taylor 117.3 521 17.9% 8.6% .307 4.37 4.37 110 110
Andrew Suarez 136.3 591 17.6% 5.6% .305 4.42 4.38 112 110
Albert Suarez 115.7 506 15.4% 7.3% .291 4.36 4.45 110 112
Steven Okert 65.7 280 25.0% 8.2% .299 3.43 3.54 87 89
Joan Gregorio 101.7 450 22.0% 10.4% .297 4.34 4.41 110 111
George Kontos 60.7 258 17.8% 7.0% .278 3.41 3.75 86 95
Derek Law 41.7 177 23.2% 7.9% .290 3.46 3.55 87 89
Cory Gearrin 44.7 190 23.1% 7.9% .290 3.63 3.75 92 95
Matt Cain 92.7 407 16.9% 7.6% .294 4.56 4.65 115 117
Chris Stratton 125.0 558 17.0% 9.5% .298 4.61 4.54 116 115
Neil Ramirez 39.0 170 25.9% 11.8% .287 3.69 3.80 93 96
Bryan Morris 46.3 205 18.1% 9.8% .291 3.88 4.29 98 108
Preston Claiborne 49.3 214 20.6% 8.4% .292 4.01 4.02 101 101
Dan Slania 89.0 392 18.6% 8.4% .300 4.35 4.40 110 111
Joe Nathan 11.3 49 26.6% 10.2% .301 3.97 3.36 100 85
Javier Lopez 24.7 109 16.5% 10.1% .285 4.01 4.12 101 104
Matt Reynolds 33.7 146 20.5% 8.2% .293 4.01 3.93 101 99
Reyes Moronta 56.7 248 26.2% 11.3% .301 3.97 3.91 100 99
Kyle Drabek 96.3 433 14.6% 9.5% .294 4.67 4.80 118 121
Chase Johnson 84.7 384 16.4% 10.7% .301 4.68 4.67 118 118
Jean Machi 54.7 236 18.6% 7.6% .289 4.12 4.05 104 102
Kraig Sitton 54.7 239 14.2% 7.1% .290 4.12 4.41 104 111
Matt Lujan 82.0 373 17.2% 10.7% .300 4.83 5.02 122 127
Josh Osich 47.7 211 19.9% 10.9% .288 4.15 4.30 105 108
Christian Jones 73.3 329 16.4% 9.7% .299 4.54 4.56 115 115
Sam Coonrod 119.7 544 15.8% 10.8% .296 4.81 4.90 121 124
Ricky Romero 13.7 66 15.1% 16.6% .285 5.93 6.25 150 158
Nestor Molina 78.0 346 16.2% 8.4% .294 4.73 4.78 119 121
Rodolfo Martinez 52.0 232 18.1% 10.3% .297 4.33 4.32 109 109
Tyler Rogers 74.7 330 16.7% 9.1% .296 4.22 4.30 106 108
Vin Mazzaro 59.7 269 15.2% 10.0% .297 4.53 4.58 114 115
Jake Dunning 64.0 287 15.7% 9.4% .299 4.64 4.66 117 117
Austin Fleet 66.3 302 15.2% 10.6% .297 4.88 5.00 123 126
Ray Black 32.0 149 26.8% 18.1% .299 4.78 4.62 121 117
Alex Torres 43.0 199 20.6% 15.1% .295 4.60 4.65 116 117
Jose Dominguez 56.0 253 19.0% 12.3% .293 4.50 4.69 114 118
Michael Roth 126.7 570 13.2% 8.8% .294 4.97 4.97 125 125
Tyler Mizenko 55.3 251 14.3% 9.6% .299 4.88 4.89 123 123
Kyle Crick 89.0 430 17.7% 17.0% .298 5.56 5.71 140 144
Ian Gardeck 43.3 212 17.9% 17.5% .307 5.82 6.00 147 151

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Madison Bumgarner 211.7 9.65 1.87 0.94 134 5.5 Frank Viola
Johnny Cueto 207.7 7.89 2.08 0.78 124 4.7 Tim Hudson
Jeff Samardzija 188.3 7.70 2.10 0.91 106 3.0 Matt Morris
Matt Moore 125.0 8.35 3.67 0.94 98 1.5 John Tudor
Mark Melancon 65.0 8.72 1.80 0.69 159 1.4 Jeff Shaw
Jake Peavy 123.3 7.15 2.63 1.09 92 1.0 Frank Castillo
Ty Blach 151.7 5.58 2.37 0.95 88 0.9 Dave Gassner
Clayton Blackburn 133.3 6.41 2.43 1.08 88 0.8 Mike Lincoln
Hunter Strickland 60.0 9.30 2.25 0.90 125 0.7 Jose Bautista
Will Smith 56.0 11.57 3.70 0.80 123 0.6 Mike Gonzalez
Tyler Beede 136.7 7.90 3.75 1.05 86 0.6 Darryl Banks
Sergio Romo 45.3 10.13 1.99 0.99 126 0.6 Todd Worrell
Santiago Casilla 51.3 8.60 2.81 0.88 119 0.5 Steve Reed
Cory Taylor 117.3 7.14 3.45 1.00 86 0.5 Zach McClellan
Andrew Suarez 136.3 6.87 2.18 1.25 85 0.5 Heath Phillips
Albert Suarez 115.7 6.07 2.88 1.09 86 0.5 Shawn Purdy
Steven Okert 65.7 9.59 3.15 0.96 110 0.4 Scott Watkins
Joan Gregorio 101.7 8.76 4.16 1.15 87 0.4 Rich Monteleone
George Kontos 60.7 6.82 2.67 0.89 110 0.4 Dale Mohorcic
Derek Law 41.7 8.85 3.02 0.86 109 0.3 Jay Powell
Cory Gearrin 44.7 8.86 3.02 1.01 103 0.2 Rob Stanifer
Matt Cain 92.7 6.70 3.01 1.26 82 0.1 Nerio Rodriguez
Chris Stratton 125.0 6.84 3.82 1.01 81 0.1 Tim Layana
Neil Ramirez 39.0 10.15 4.62 0.92 102 0.1 Franklyn German
Bryan Morris 46.3 7.19 3.89 0.97 97 0.0 Danny Frisella
Preston Claiborne 49.3 8.03 3.29 1.10 94 0.0 Mike Gardiner
Dan Slania 89.0 7.38 3.34 1.11 86 0.0 Merkin Valdez
Joe Nathan 11.3 10.35 3.98 0.80 95 0.0 Doug Brocail
Javier Lopez 24.7 6.56 4.01 0.73 94 0.0 Joe Hoerner
Matt Reynolds 33.7 8.01 3.20 1.07 94 -0.1 Mike Venafro
Reyes Moronta 56.7 10.32 4.44 0.95 95 -0.1 Rickey Keeton
Kyle Drabek 96.3 5.89 3.83 1.03 80 -0.1 Landon Jacobsen
Chase Johnson 84.7 6.69 4.36 0.96 80 -0.1 Rob Purvis
Jean Machi 54.7 7.24 2.96 0.99 91 -0.2 Terry Mathews
Kraig Sitton 54.7 5.59 2.80 0.99 91 -0.2 Tom Burgmeier
Matt Lujan 82.0 7.02 4.39 1.21 78 -0.2 Mark Hendrickson
Josh Osich 47.7 7.92 4.34 0.94 90 -0.2 Ken Vining
Christian Jones 73.3 6.63 3.93 0.98 83 -0.2 Doug Slaten
Sam Coonrod 119.7 6.47 4.44 1.05 78 -0.2 Jeff Bumgarner
Ricky Romero 13.7 6.57 7.23 1.31 63 -0.2 Jim Abbott
Nestor Molina 78.0 6.46 3.35 1.27 79 -0.2 Roger Smithberg
Rodolfo Martinez 52.0 7.27 4.15 0.87 87 -0.3 Scott Munter
Tyler Rogers 74.7 6.63 3.61 0.84 89 -0.3 Brett Merriman
Vin Mazzaro 59.7 6.18 4.07 0.90 83 -0.3 Jake Robbins
Jake Dunning 64.0 6.33 3.80 0.98 81 -0.4 Tim Lambert
Austin Fleet 66.3 6.24 4.34 1.09 77 -0.4 Matt Albers
Ray Black 32.0 11.25 7.59 0.84 78 -0.4 Eric Cammack
Alex Torres 43.0 8.58 6.28 0.84 81 -0.4 Mike Kinnunen
Jose Dominguez 56.0 7.71 4.98 0.96 83 -0.5 Pete Sikaras
Michael Roth 126.7 5.33 3.55 1.14 75 -0.6 Don Vesling
Tyler Mizenko 55.3 5.86 3.91 1.14 77 -0.7 Mario Ramos
Kyle Crick 89.0 7.69 7.38 1.11 67 -1.1 Mike Bell
Ian Gardeck 43.3 7.90 7.69 1.25 65 -1.1 Matt Smith

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



Print This Post



Carson Cistulli has just published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.


Comments Are Loading Now!