2017 ZiPS Projections – Seattle Mariners

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Seattle Mariners. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / San Diego / San Francisco / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Here’s the very easiest way to determine if a club is likely to possess at least an average collection of field players: determine if all the field players in question receive a forecast of two wins or better. Where the Seattle Mariners are concerned, that’s more or less the case.

The hypothetical right-field platoon of Seth Smith (410 PA, 1.4 zWAR) and Guillermo Heredia (523, 0.9) might represent a weak spot — as might a platoon of Dan Vogelbach (508, 1.0) and Danny Valencia (419, 1.4) at first. In both instances, however, there’s at least a path to competence. Beyond that, basically every other position in the starting lineup — including a left field occupied by the recently acquired Mitch Haniger (517, 1.9) — is average or better. Nor does this account for the nearly elite contributions of Robinson Cano (644, 4.2) and Kyle Seager (653, 4.8).

Pitchers
There are two ways pitcher WAR is calculated at FanGraphs — both by fielding-independent pitching (FIP) and by runs allowed (RA9). The first accounts only for those actions over which a pitcher exerts direct control (strikeouts, walks, home runs); the latter, for all runs conceded while the relevant pitcher is on the mound. Seattle’s rotation finished 19th in the majors by both measures this past year. The current roster doesn’t seem to offer much hope for improvement.

The 2016 season was the worst for Felix Hernandez (179.1 IP, 3.0 zWAR) basically in his career. He failed to record at least 30 starts for the first time since he debuted as a 19-year-old in 2005. He failed to record at least two wins both by FIP-WAR and RA9-WAR for the first time ever in his career — including that age-19 season. ZiPS calls for something more like his 2015 campaign, suggesting both that (a) he’s a candidate for positive regression and (b) he’s unlikely to reach the frenzied heights of his best years. No other starter is projected to produce even an average season, however.

One of the club’s very best pitchers by any measure is right-hander Edwin Diaz (79.1 IP, 67 ERA-, 1.5 zWAR). Given his recent history of working as a starter — including six of the 16 appearances he recorded at Triple-A Tacoma in 2016 — Diaz seems like a candidate for non-traditional closer usage.

Bench/Prospects
The five-player deal between Seattle and Tampa Bay on November 18 was distinctly not the most celebrated trade of the offseason. That said, utility everything Taylor Motter (492 PA, 1.4 zWAR) — acquired by the Mariners in that deal — now represents the club’s top bench player, according to Dan Szymborski’s computer. Heredia and Vogelbach, mentioned above, still retain their rookie eligibility. Beyond that pair, Boog Powell (406, 0.8), who’ll return from a suspension in 2017, receives the top projection among prospect types.

As for pitchers, the combination of Chris Heston (146.0 IP, 0.6 zWAR) and Cody Martin (129.1, 0.7) seem to represent the most promising of the club’s current starting-pitching depth. Reliever Tony Zych (45.2, 0.6), meanwhile, actually receives the second-best ERA projection (75 ERA-) on the entire team, just after Edwin Diaz and before Evan Scribner (79 ERA-).

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Mariners, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

seattle-depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Kyle Seager L 29 3B 653 82 155 32 3 26 92 5 3
Robinson Cano L 34 2B 644 84 169 30 2 24 90 3 3
Nelson Cruz R 36 RF 586 77 141 23 1 36 93 3 2
Jean Segura R 27 SS 657 76 165 25 6 13 55 30 9
Leonys Martin L 29 CF 508 58 114 17 4 11 44 22 7
Mike Zunino R 26 C 470 53 91 17 1 22 63 0 1
Mitch Haniger R 26 CF 517 57 110 20 3 18 61 7 3
Seth Smith L 34 RF 410 52 87 19 2 13 51 0 0
Danny Valencia R 32 3B 419 54 103 20 1 14 52 1 1
Taylor Motter R 27 SS 492 57 109 23 1 14 55 15 6
Chris Iannetta R 34 C 320 28 58 13 0 9 32 1 0
Dan Vogelbach L 24 1B 508 63 106 20 1 18 62 1 1
Guillermo Heredia R 26 CF 523 55 112 14 1 5 41 4 4
Dae-Ho Lee R 35 1B 439 50 102 19 0 20 67 0 0
Boog Powell L 24 CF 406 41 89 11 3 4 28 11 10
Stefen Romero R 28 RF 475 59 114 23 3 16 63 3 3
Carlos Ruiz R 38 C 239 20 49 9 0 2 17 2 1
Marcus Littlewood B 25 C 286 28 54 13 0 4 24 2 1
Ben Gamel L 25 CF 580 63 129 25 6 10 56 11 5
Adam Lind L 33 1B 429 48 98 19 1 14 57 0 0
Tyler O’Neill R 22 RF 537 63 112 20 2 25 76 9 4
Shawn O’Malley B 29 SS 376 39 78 12 3 4 30 12 4
Jesus Sucre R 29 C 171 14 38 6 0 1 12 0 1
Franklin Gutierrez R 34 RF 281 34 60 12 0 13 41 2 1
Steve Clevenger L 31 C 234 22 53 9 1 3 22 0 0
Zach Shank R 26 3B 432 41 90 14 3 4 30 4 3
Ryan Casteel R 26 C 350 31 69 13 1 8 32 2 2
Drew Jackson R 23 SS 615 58 125 19 2 4 36 11 9
Tyler Smith R 25 SS 477 45 102 18 2 5 35 7 3
Tyler Marlette R 24 C 394 38 81 16 1 8 38 4 3
Sebastian Valle R 26 C 268 23 50 11 0 5 24 0 1
Mike Freeman L 29 2B 485 44 101 16 3 4 33 9 2
Ryan Strausborger R 29 RF 374 35 76 13 1 7 28 14 3
Ian Miller L 25 CF 431 38 89 9 4 0 23 25 6
Adam Law R 27 3B 343 31 71 11 1 2 22 11 5
James Ramsey L 27 RF 433 42 79 14 2 12 40 3 3
D.J. Peterson R 25 1B 475 52 98 20 1 17 57 2 1
Braden Bishop R 23 CF 478 40 95 10 0 2 25 6 1
Mike Baxter L 32 RF 330 33 64 12 2 4 25 6 2
Leon Landry L 27 LF 428 42 90 12 4 7 37 9 5
Kyle Waldrop L 25 RF 469 44 101 20 2 9 42 5 4
Kyle Petty R 26 1B 412 37 78 14 1 5 31 6 3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Kyle Seager 653 8.9% 16.5% .198 .284 .265 .337 .463 .341
Robinson Cano 644 7.0% 14.1% .180 .303 .287 .342 .467 .339
Nelson Cruz 586 8.2% 25.4% .252 .303 .267 .333 .519 .356
Jean Segura 657 4.3% 15.8% .124 .305 .269 .308 .393 .314
Leonys Martin 508 6.5% 23.4% .125 .306 .246 .298 .371 .301
Mike Zunino 470 6.8% 31.5% .202 .272 .216 .288 .418 .304
Mitch Haniger 517 7.5% 25.7% .172 .288 .237 .302 .409 .310
Seth Smith 410 10.7% 21.5% .173 .285 .243 .332 .416 .322
Danny Valencia 419 6.7% 22.2% .166 .316 .266 .317 .432 .322
Taylor Motter 492 6.9% 20.1% .150 .279 .243 .298 .393 .307
Chris Iannetta 320 12.8% 26.6% .147 .269 .212 .319 .359 .300
Dan Vogelbach 508 11.4% 24.8% .171 .290 .239 .329 .410 .319
Guillermo Heredia 523 8.4% 14.9% .068 .281 .246 .323 .314 .289
Dae-Ho Lee 439 6.2% 22.3% .195 .284 .251 .305 .446 .321
Boog Powell 406 8.1% 19.2% .079 .297 .244 .308 .323 .294
Stefen Romero 475 4.4% 19.8% .172 .288 .256 .293 .428 .310
Carlos Ruiz 239 9.2% 15.9% .071 .273 .231 .315 .302 .279
Marcus Littlewood 286 8.7% 28.3% .097 .286 .209 .277 .306 .261
Ben Gamel 580 6.6% 23.3% .125 .304 .242 .293 .367 .290
Adam Lind 429 8.6% 19.3% .162 .286 .252 .317 .414 .309
Tyler O’Neill 537 6.5% 35.4% .202 .310 .229 .285 .431 .308
Shawn O’Malley 376 6.9% 20.5% .089 .287 .231 .293 .320 .278
Jesus Sucre 171 2.9% 17.0% .056 .282 .236 .263 .292 .241
Franklin Gutierrez 281 7.5% 30.2% .200 .296 .235 .299 .435 .318
Steve Clevenger 234 7.3% 16.7% .093 .286 .247 .299 .340 .278
Zach Shank 432 4.9% 22.9% .081 .290 .226 .274 .307 .258
Ryan Casteel 350 5.1% 32.0% .119 .289 .210 .251 .329 .254
Drew Jackson 615 5.4% 22.4% .062 .284 .221 .271 .283 .254
Tyler Smith 477 5.7% 21.0% .084 .288 .232 .281 .316 .266
Tyler Marlette 394 5.1% 28.4% .113 .289 .218 .259 .331 .262
Sebastian Valle 268 4.1% 34.0% .102 .283 .198 .229 .300 .230
Mike Freeman 485 6.6% 21.6% .076 .285 .226 .280 .302 .261
Ryan Strausborger 374 4.8% 24.1% .104 .273 .219 .261 .323 .264
Ian Miller 431 5.3% 18.8% .043 .278 .223 .269 .266 .253
Adam Law 343 6.1% 21.0% .061 .290 .230 .287 .291 .267
James Ramsey 433 7.4% 36.3% .137 .298 .202 .267 .339 .265
D.J. Peterson 475 5.1% 30.3% .164 .283 .220 .265 .384 .281
Braden Bishop 478 5.2% 24.3% .036 .287 .216 .263 .252 .232
Mike Baxter 330 8.2% 22.7% .095 .274 .216 .291 .311 .271
Leon Landry 428 4.2% 19.9% .102 .264 .224 .258 .326 .260
Kyle Waldrop 469 4.3% 27.5% .115 .298 .228 .262 .343 .263
Kyle Petty 412 5.8% 32.5% .081 .299 .205 .260 .286 .249

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Kyle Seager 653 5.7 122 3 4.8 Robin Ventura
Robinson Cano 644 6.0 124 -2 4.2 Charlie Gehringer
Nelson Cruz 586 6.3 134 -5 3.3 Sammy Sosa
Jean Segura 657 4.7 95 -3 2.8 Michael Young
Leonys Martin 508 4.2 87 8 2.2 Chris Duffy
Mike Zunino 470 4.1 95 -4 2.1 John Buck
Mitch Haniger 517 4.4 98 -1 1.9 Adam Hyzdu
Seth Smith 410 4.9 109 0 1.4 Lyle Overbay
Danny Valencia 419 5.0 108 -7 1.4 Travis Fryman
Taylor Motter 492 4.3 92 -6 1.4 Bobby Crosby
Chris Iannetta 320 4.0 90 -5 1.0 Rick Dempsey
Dan Vogelbach 508 4.8 106 -1 1.0 Mario Valdez
Guillermo Heredia 523 3.5 81 0 0.9 Derrell Baker
Dae-Ho Lee 439 4.9 107 -1 0.9 Richie Zisk
Boog Powell 406 3.3 78 3 0.8 Jonathan Jay
Stefen Romero 475 4.5 99 -2 0.7 Wil Cordero
Carlos Ruiz 239 3.3 75 -1 0.7 Brad Ausmus
Marcus Littlewood 286 2.9 64 2 0.7 Donnie Scott
Ben Gamel 580 3.9 84 -5 0.6 Xavier Paul
Adam Lind 429 4.7 103 -2 0.5 Kevin Millar
Tyler O’Neill 537 4.3 97 -4 0.5 Micah Franklin
Shawn O’Malley 376 3.4 72 -3 0.4 Jose Uribe
Jesus Sucre 171 2.6 56 3 0.3 Ken Huckaby
Franklin Gutierrez 281 4.6 103 -4 0.3 Candy Maldonado
Steve Clevenger 234 3.6 79 -4 0.3 Jerry Grote
Zach Shank 432 2.9 63 5 0.2 Josh Petersen
Ryan Casteel 350 2.8 61 -1 0.1 Luis Pujols
Drew Jackson 615 2.5 56 5 0.1 Esteban Beltre
Tyler Smith 477 3.2 68 -3 0.1 Steve Sisco
Tyler Marlette 394 2.9 64 -5 -0.1 Ryan Luzinski
Sebastian Valle 268 2.2 47 2 -0.2 Chris Curry
Mike Freeman 485 3.1 64 -1 -0.3 Chico Ruiz
Ryan Strausborger 374 3.2 63 4 -0.3 Ambiorix Concepcion
Ian Miller 431 2.8 52 2 -0.4 Jose Constanza
Adam Law 343 3.0 63 -3 -0.5 Bobby DeJardin
James Ramsey 433 3.0 69 3 -0.5 Brian Brady
D.J. Peterson 475 3.5 79 1 -0.5 Fred McNair
Braden Bishop 478 2.4 46 6 -0.6 Selwyn Langaigne
Mike Baxter 330 3.2 70 -3 -0.8 Bubba Carpenter
Leon Landry 428 2.9 63 0 -1.1 Tonayne Brown
Kyle Waldrop 469 3.1 68 -2 -1.3 John Hughes
Kyle Petty 412 2.5 53 -1 -2.0 Josh Loggins

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Felix Hernandez R 31 28 28 179.3 171 55 21 164 78 73
Hisashi Iwakuma R 36 25 25 148.7 120 28 20 154 73 68
James Paxton L 28 23 23 118.3 109 35 14 119 56 52
Edwin Diaz R 23 76 0 79.3 120 20 9 61 26 24
Ariel Miranda L 28 29 27 143.0 114 47 19 146 73 68
Nate Karns R 29 24 21 119.7 123 49 16 116 62 58
Cody Martin R 27 33 21 129.3 114 45 18 132 68 64
Chris Heston R 29 27 26 146.0 114 53 19 153 80 75
Tony Zych R 26 37 0 45.7 55 13 5 40 17 16
Max Povse R 23 27 27 145.3 107 41 20 159 80 75
Evan Scribner R 31 37 0 39.7 47 7 6 35 15 14
Nick Vincent R 30 61 0 61.0 68 17 8 56 26 24
Steve Cishek R 31 61 0 60.7 69 22 7 54 26 24
Drew Storen R 29 60 0 55.0 54 14 6 53 24 22
Paul Fry L 24 50 0 65.7 70 28 7 60 30 28
Andrew Moore R 23 28 28 149.3 106 35 23 165 86 80
Marc Rzepczynski L 31 69 0 43.3 46 20 4 41 19 18
Casey Fien R 33 57 0 56.3 51 11 7 56 26 24
Steve Johnson R 29 31 5 60.7 63 28 8 57 31 29
Zac Curtis L 24 53 0 49.7 59 20 7 44 22 21
Ryne Harper R 28 38 0 58.0 64 22 7 54 27 25
Ryan Yarbrough L 25 24 24 110.0 75 33 16 121 63 59
James Pazos L 26 42 0 50.7 53 21 6 47 24 22
Charlie Furbush L 31 28 0 17.7 18 5 2 16 7 7
Dan Altavilla R 24 61 0 69.7 68 25 9 67 33 31
Ryan Weber R 26 39 10 103.7 65 19 14 118 57 53
Micah Owings R 32 5 1 8.7 8 3 1 9 4 4
Christian Bergman R 29 26 13 88.3 60 20 14 101 50 47
Rob Whalen R 23 23 23 120.7 102 53 17 125 71 66
Arquimedes Caminero R 30 65 0 68.0 67 30 9 66 33 31
Dean Kiekhefer L 28 53 0 58.3 40 12 7 64 29 27
Al Alburquerque R 31 52 0 47.3 50 22 6 45 24 22
Danny Hultzen L 27 4 4 13.7 11 7 2 15 9 8
Kevin Munson R 28 33 0 38.3 42 19 5 36 19 18
Jonathan Aro R 26 32 0 61.7 53 21 7 63 31 29
Pat Venditte B 32 43 0 65.7 67 25 9 63 33 31
Mayckol Guaipe R 26 39 0 49.3 39 14 6 52 26 24
Brad Mills L 32 16 16 82.7 63 32 13 90 50 47
Ryan Cook R 30 28 0 27.0 26 12 4 27 15 14
Matt M. Anderson R 25 40 5 77.3 58 25 10 84 44 41
Tom Wilhelmsen R 33 53 0 59.0 50 25 7 60 32 30
Peter Tago R 24 41 0 60.7 66 34 8 57 33 31
Sam Gaviglio R 27 24 22 129.0 89 38 20 145 79 74
Emilio Pagan R 26 43 0 64.7 63 29 9 64 35 33
Thyago Vieira R 24 31 0 40.7 34 23 5 42 25 23

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Felix Hernandez 179.3 757 22.6% 7.3% .285 3.66 3.78 91 92
Hisashi Iwakuma 148.7 628 19.1% 4.5% .293 4.12 3.83 102 93
James Paxton 118.3 509 21.4% 6.9% .301 3.95 3.69 98 89
Edwin Diaz 79.3 319 37.6% 6.3% .312 2.72 2.39 67 58
Ariel Miranda 143.0 622 18.3% 7.6% .291 4.28 4.33 106 105
Nate Karns 119.7 524 23.5% 9.3% .302 4.36 4.12 108 100
Cody Martin 129.3 565 20.2% 8.0% .299 4.45 4.31 110 105
Chris Heston 146.0 644 17.7% 8.2% .299 4.62 4.47 114 108
Tony Zych 45.7 190 28.9% 6.8% .307 3.15 3.11 78 75
Max Povse 145.3 636 16.8% 6.4% .302 4.64 4.41 115 107
Evan Scribner 39.7 161 29.2% 4.3% .293 3.18 3.38 79 82
Nick Vincent 61.0 256 26.6% 6.6% .296 3.54 3.32 88 80
Steve Cishek 60.7 258 26.7% 8.5% .297 3.56 3.42 88 83
Drew Storen 55.0 232 23.3% 6.0% .309 3.60 3.54 89 86
Paul Fry 65.7 285 24.6% 9.8% .299 3.84 3.68 95 89
Andrew Moore 149.3 648 16.4% 5.4% .298 4.82 4.55 119 110
Marc Rzepczynski 43.3 191 24.1% 10.5% .314 3.74 3.43 93 83
Casey Fien 56.3 236 21.6% 4.7% .294 3.83 3.44 95 84
Steve Johnson 60.7 267 23.6% 10.5% .295 4.30 4.18 106 101
Zac Curtis 49.7 213 27.7% 9.4% .301 3.81 3.95 94 96
Ryne Harper 58.0 250 25.6% 8.8% .305 3.88 3.71 96 90
Ryan Yarbrough 110.0 484 15.5% 6.8% .297 4.83 4.72 120 115
James Pazos 50.7 220 24.1% 9.5% .297 3.91 3.91 97 95
Charlie Furbush 17.7 74 24.3% 6.7% .291 3.57 3.39 88 82
Dan Altavilla 69.7 301 22.6% 8.3% .297 4.00 4.04 99 98
Ryan Weber 103.7 448 14.5% 4.2% .301 4.60 4.24 114 103
Micah Owings 8.7 38 21.0% 7.9% .319 4.15 4.14 103 100
Christian Bergman 88.3 386 15.5% 5.2% .300 4.79 4.52 119 110
Rob Whalen 120.7 540 18.9% 9.8% .300 4.92 4.74 122 115
Arquimedes Caminero 68.0 300 22.3% 10.0% .302 4.10 4.36 101 106
Dean Kiekhefer 58.3 251 15.9% 4.8% .303 4.17 3.96 103 96
Al Alburquerque 47.3 209 23.9% 10.5% .300 4.18 4.04 103 98
Danny Hultzen 13.7 63 17.4% 11.1% .309 5.27 5.15 130 125
Kevin Munson 38.3 170 24.7% 11.2% .304 4.23 4.02 105 97
Jonathan Aro 61.7 269 19.7% 7.8% .303 4.23 4.03 105 98
Pat Venditte 65.7 285 23.5% 8.8% .298 4.25 4.13 105 100
Mayckol Guaipe 49.3 214 18.2% 6.5% .303 4.38 4.08 108 99
Brad Mills 82.7 370 17.0% 8.6% .298 5.12 4.93 127 120
Ryan Cook 27.0 120 21.7% 10.0% .299 4.67 4.44 116 108
Matt M. Anderson 77.3 341 17.0% 7.3% .303 4.77 4.37 118 106
Tom Wilhelmsen 59.0 262 19.1% 9.5% .298 4.58 4.22 113 102
Peter Tago 60.7 273 24.2% 12.4% .302 4.60 4.47 114 108
Sam Gaviglio 129.0 570 15.6% 6.7% .300 5.16 4.79 128 116
Emilio Pagan 64.7 287 21.9% 10.1% .302 4.59 4.45 114 108
Thyago Vieira 40.7 187 18.2% 12.3% .303 5.09 4.95 126 120

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Felix Hernandez 179.3 8.58 2.76 1.05 104 3.0 Dave Stieb
Hisashi Iwakuma 148.7 7.26 1.69 1.21 93 1.6 Paul Byrd
James Paxton 118.3 8.29 2.66 1.07 97 1.5 Chris Hammond
Edwin Diaz 79.3 13.62 2.27 1.02 140 1.5 Jonathan Broxton
Ariel Miranda 143.0 7.17 2.96 1.20 89 1.2 Scott Sauerbeck
Nate Karns 119.7 9.25 3.68 1.20 88 0.9 Chris Seelbach
Cody Martin 129.3 7.94 3.13 1.25 86 0.7 Steve Soderstrom
Chris Heston 146.0 7.03 3.27 1.17 83 0.6 Jeremy Guthrie
Tony Zych 45.7 10.83 2.56 0.98 121 0.6 Antonio Osuna
Max Povse 145.3 6.63 2.54 1.24 82 0.6 Tim Drew
Evan Scribner 39.7 10.65 1.59 1.36 120 0.5 Aaron Rakers
Nick Vincent 61.0 10.03 2.51 1.18 108 0.5 Joel Peralta
Steve Cishek 60.7 10.23 3.26 1.04 107 0.4 Cory Bailey
Drew Storen 55.0 8.84 2.29 0.98 106 0.4 Cory Bailey
Paul Fry 65.7 9.59 3.84 0.96 100 0.2 Buzz Oliver
Andrew Moore 149.3 6.39 2.11 1.39 79 0.2 Paul Quantrill
Marc Rzepczynski 43.3 9.56 4.16 0.83 102 0.2 Doug Capilla
Casey Fien 56.3 8.15 1.76 1.12 100 0.2 Gil Heredia
Steve Johnson 60.7 9.34 4.15 1.19 89 0.2 Doug Robertson
Zac Curtis 49.7 10.68 3.62 1.27 100 0.2 Angel Miranda
Ryne Harper 58.0 9.93 3.41 1.09 98 0.2 Steve Andrade
Ryan Yarbrough 110.0 6.14 2.70 1.31 79 0.2 Zach Parker
James Pazos 50.7 9.41 3.73 1.07 98 0.1 Jaime Cerda
Charlie Furbush 17.7 9.15 2.54 1.02 107 0.1 Bobby Seay
Dan Altavilla 69.7 8.78 3.23 1.16 95 0.1 Josh Kinney
Ryan Weber 103.7 5.64 1.65 1.22 83 0.1 Tim Kester
Micah Owings 8.7 8.28 3.10 1.03 90 0.0 Manny Aybar
Christian Bergman 88.3 6.12 2.04 1.43 80 0.0 Jason Simontacchi
Rob Whalen 120.7 7.61 3.95 1.27 78 0.0 Carl Dale
Arquimedes Caminero 68.0 8.87 3.97 1.19 93 0.0 Miguel Saladin
Dean Kiekhefer 58.3 6.17 1.85 1.08 92 0.0 Will McEnaney
Al Alburquerque 47.3 9.51 4.19 1.14 91 0.0 Mike Cook
Danny Hultzen 13.7 7.23 4.60 1.31 73 -0.1 Paul Mirabella
Kevin Munson 38.3 9.87 4.46 1.17 90 -0.1 Franklyn German
Jonathan Aro 61.7 7.73 3.06 1.02 90 -0.1 Jeremy Wedel
Pat Venditte 65.7 9.18 3.42 1.23 90 -0.1 Dave Stevens
Mayckol Guaipe 49.3 7.12 2.56 1.10 87 -0.2 Jeremy Ward
Brad Mills 82.7 6.86 3.48 1.41 75 -0.2 Jim Abbott
Ryan Cook 27.0 8.67 4.00 1.33 82 -0.2 Ryan Bukvich
Matt M. Anderson 77.3 6.75 2.91 1.16 80 -0.3 Gary Serum
Tom Wilhelmsen 59.0 7.63 3.81 1.07 83 -0.4 Jim Czajkowski
Peter Tago 60.7 9.79 5.04 1.19 83 -0.4 Joe Valentine
Sam Gaviglio 129.0 6.21 2.65 1.40 74 -0.4 John Lackey
Emilio Pagan 64.7 8.76 4.03 1.25 83 -0.4 Rich Croushore
Thyago Vieira 40.7 7.52 5.09 1.11 75 -0.5 Mark Zamarripa

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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