2017 ZiPS Projections – Texas Rangers

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / Miami / Oakland / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
The Texas Rangers added catcher Jonathan Lucroy (510 PA, 3.7 zWAR) at the trade deadline last year. A brief examination of the projections below reveals that Lucroy is forecast to produce more wins than any other Rangers field player in 2017. This would seem to be a harbinger of good things for Texas: a club that won its division by nine games just a year ago, and which has retained basically all its principal characters from the previous season, will now benefit from an even better principal character.

None of that is actually false. What that line of reasoning fails to acknowledge, however, is that the 2016 edition of the Texas Rangers was very likely the most fortunate club in the majors. On the one hand, they won 95 games. On the other, the salient indicators — in this case, represented by BaseRuns — suggest they played more like an 82-win club.

Unsurprisingly, the ZiPS projections here seem to call for something more like an average team than an elite one. Only three starting field players besides Lucroy receive a forecast for more than two wins. Three positions — first base, left field, and right field — are expected to contribute just a single win each.

Pitchers
None of the teams covered thus far in this series of ZiPS projection posts has featured such an imbalance in its starting rotation as this Texas club. Cole Hamels (190.2 IP, 4.1 zWAR) and Yu Darvish (139.1, 3.2) are expected to account for more than seven wins in 2017. That’s quite good. Among the other likely members of the Rangers’ Opening Day rotation, however, only Martin Perez (132.2, 1.4) exceeds even the one-win mark.

Unlike the rotation, the bullpen is an almost flawless case study in parity. Sam Dyson (70.1 IP, 0.9 zWAR) is the nominal relief ace, but all five pitchers included in the depth-chart image below are expected to record an ERA between 20% and 24% lower (which is to say, better) than league average.

Bench/Prospects
Among those players omitted from the depth chart below, Matt Duffy (518 PA, 1.4 zWAR) earns the top wins projection. Unfortunately, he’s now employed by the Chiba Lotte Marines. Outfielder Jared Hoying (481, 1.1) is also 27, however, and also retains his rookie eligibility and also appears capable of functioning as a competent bench player right now.

ZiPS doesn’t account for the precise nature of Tyson Ross‘s (123.0 IP, 1.7 zWAR) injury, only the time he’s missed because of it. Regardless, he earns one of the top forecasts among all the club’s starters. Rule 5 pick Mike Hauschild (127.0, 1.3) is 27 and has never appeared at the major-league level. Even so, his projection qualifies him as a possible asset in the Rangers’ rotation.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rangers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Jonathan Lucroy R 31 C 510 58 127 26 3 14 64 3 1
Adrian Beltre R 38 3B 562 69 145 26 2 21 82 1 1
Rougned Odor L 23 2B 642 86 165 32 7 29 92 12 7
Carlos Gomez R 31 CF 518 64 120 25 2 16 67 20 8
Joey Gallo L 23 3B 494 63 91 17 3 28 70 4 0
Elvis Andrus R 28 SS 641 73 159 31 4 7 62 27 10
Nomar Mazara L 22 RF 598 62 146 15 4 22 72 0 2
Matt E. Duffy R 26 3B 518 61 113 19 2 16 62 2 2
Shin-Soo Choo L 34 RF 417 53 92 17 1 14 41 5 4
Jared Hoying L 28 CF 481 56 105 21 4 18 58 15 5
Hanser Alberto R 24 SS 437 43 109 18 3 7 43 7 5
Luis Yander La O R 25 3B 534 56 137 17 2 5 42 15 12
Robinson Chirinos R 33 C 251 27 50 12 0 8 28 0 1
Jurickson Profar B 24 SS 346 38 76 12 3 7 31 4 3
Brett Nicholas L 28 C 480 48 110 21 1 12 48 2 2
Cesar Puello R 26 RF 328 43 70 13 1 8 36 12 3
Prince Fielder L 33 DH 472 45 105 19 0 14 63 0 0
Jose Cardona R 23 CF 498 53 113 17 2 10 42 15 11
Ryan Rua R 27 LF 382 46 83 15 1 12 37 6 2
Andy Ibanez R 24 2B 568 56 129 29 3 10 54 11 10
Delino DeShields R 24 CF 494 65 105 18 3 7 36 27 10
Josh Morgan R 21 3B 523 52 120 15 2 5 39 5 3
Jose Trevino R 24 C 436 48 95 20 1 8 45 2 3
Michael De Leon B 20 SS 473 41 107 18 2 6 37 5 5
James Loney L 33 1B 502 45 133 21 0 9 53 2 1
Nevin Ashley R 32 C 265 28 50 9 1 5 25 1 1
Doug Bernier R 37 2B 377 35 78 11 1 6 29 3 4
Josh Hamilton L 36 LF 273 29 61 13 1 9 33 1 1
Matt Lipka R 25 CF 395 37 80 14 3 3 31 13 5
Jason Martinson R 28 3B 506 48 87 15 3 15 49 9 2
Will Middlebrooks R 28 3B 374 35 77 14 1 11 42 2 2
Juremi Profar R 21 1B 430 43 103 19 2 7 39 1 3
Travis Snider L 29 LF 317 31 67 13 1 7 31 1 1
Drew Robinson L 25 RF 508 55 94 19 4 17 54 10 5
Steven Lerud L 32 C 208 19 34 6 0 2 13 0 0
Darin Mastroianni R 31 CF 363 33 75 14 1 3 26 12 4
Pat Cantwell R 27 C 236 18 46 5 1 2 14 2 2
Alex Burg R 29 C 333 31 64 14 0 7 30 1 1
Luis Mendez B 24 3B 346 28 66 8 1 2 20 8 7
Preston Beck L 26 RF 457 43 95 20 4 7 41 5 2
Edwin Garcia R 26 2B 305 24 67 9 1 0 17 3 2
Ronald Guzman L 22 1B 550 54 124 20 5 13 56 2 1
Jairo Beras R 22 RF 442 43 91 18 3 12 45 6 6
Shoeful Joe Jackson L 25 LF 436 38 91 17 2 5 34 2 3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Jonathan Lucroy 510 8.8% 15.5% .160 .305 .275 .339 .435 .334
Adrian Beltre 562 6.8% 10.9% .180 .283 .281 .333 .461 .335
Rougned Odor 642 3.9% 17.9% .221 .294 .275 .311 .496 .347
Carlos Gomez 518 6.6% 24.9% .163 .318 .255 .318 .418 .331
Joey Gallo 494 11.3% 39.7% .247 .299 .210 .304 .456 .322
Elvis Andrus 641 7.2% 12.9% .104 .307 .276 .328 .380 .319
Nomar Mazara 598 6.9% 19.4% .164 .300 .268 .323 .432 .325
Matt E. Duffy 518 5.4% 25.9% .149 .295 .238 .292 .387 .296
Shin-Soo Choo 417 11.8% 23.7% .172 .321 .260 .365 .432 .352
Jared Hoying 481 5.4% 25.2% .184 .277 .233 .277 .417 .305
Hanser Alberto 437 2.1% 12.8% .108 .287 .262 .281 .370 .284
Luis Yander La O 534 5.8% 8.4% .073 .297 .278 .326 .351 .303
Robinson Chirinos 251 7.6% 23.9% .162 .269 .225 .298 .387 .297
Jurickson Profar 346 8.1% 19.1% .125 .289 .244 .314 .370 .305
Brett Nicholas 480 5.4% 23.8% .132 .303 .247 .292 .379 .292
Cesar Puello 328 8.2% 24.1% .138 .316 .248 .347 .387 .333
Prince Fielder 472 9.7% 16.3% .147 .278 .254 .337 .401 .312
Jose Cardona 498 5.8% 18.7% .111 .289 .247 .296 .358 .298
Ryan Rua 382 7.1% 27.0% .153 .303 .239 .304 .392 .306
Andy Ibanez 568 7.2% 16.5% .126 .285 .250 .306 .375 .304
Delino DeShields 494 9.5% 25.9% .105 .328 .244 .323 .349 .312
Josh Morgan 523 6.5% 16.6% .072 .297 .253 .311 .324 .284
Jose Trevino 436 3.9% 16.7% .111 .259 .229 .260 .341 .261
Michael De Leon 473 4.0% 16.5% .090 .278 .240 .274 .330 .267
James Loney 502 5.4% 10.6% .103 .302 .284 .325 .387 .307
Nevin Ashley 265 7.5% 26.8% .109 .274 .210 .280 .319 .267
Doug Bernier 377 6.9% 22.5% .090 .283 .227 .284 .317 .270
Josh Hamilton 273 6.6% 28.2% .169 .311 .245 .297 .414 .302
Matt Lipka 395 4.3% 25.8% .079 .291 .217 .260 .296 .255
Jason Martinson 506 6.7% 42.7% .143 .309 .189 .252 .332 .260
Will Middlebrooks 374 4.5% 27.0% .140 .273 .219 .257 .359 .265
Juremi Profar 430 5.1% 15.3% .110 .289 .257 .296 .367 .290
Travis Snider 317 9.8% 23.0% .128 .296 .238 .316 .365 .297
Drew Robinson 508 9.4% 34.4% .172 .293 .207 .287 .379 .296
Steven Lerud 208 10.1% 31.7% .066 .281 .187 .285 .253 .249
Darin Mastroianni 363 6.1% 21.8% .075 .283 .225 .277 .299 .266
Pat Cantwell 236 5.1% 27.5% .060 .289 .211 .261 .271 .241
Alex Burg 333 7.5% 29.7% .116 .288 .213 .277 .329 .268
Luis Mendez 346 6.1% 24.3% .051 .278 .210 .269 .261 .250
Preston Beck 457 7.4% 22.5% .117 .285 .227 .289 .344 .279
Edwin Garcia 305 4.6% 19.0% .038 .290 .233 .267 .272 .242
Ronald Guzman 550 5.3% 24.2% .133 .298 .240 .281 .373 .282
Jairo Beras 442 4.1% 33.0% .143 .299 .217 .251 .360 .269
Shoeful Joe Jackson 436 6.0% 24.3% .090 .293 .227 .278 .317 .264

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Jonathan Lucroy 510 5.5 111 2 3.7 Bob Boone
Adrian Beltre 562 5.7 111 7 3.5 Brooks Robinson
Rougned Odor 642 5.7 112 -7 2.7 Robinson Cano
Carlos Gomez 518 4.9 96 4 2.5 Eric Byrnes
Joey Gallo 494 4.8 100 -2 1.8 Mike Pagliarulo
Elvis Andrus 641 4.8 90 -5 1.7 Jason Bartlett
Nomar Mazara 598 5.1 101 1 1.4 Harold Baines
Matt E. Duffy 518 4.0 81 5 1.4 Greg Jelks
Shin-Soo Choo 417 5.7 114 -5 1.2 Bruce Campbell
Jared Hoying 481 4.2 83 3 1.1 Brant Brown
Hanser Alberto 437 3.7 73 6 1.0 Hal Lanier
Luis Yander La O 534 4.1 83 4 0.9 Jeff Keppinger
Robinson Chirinos 251 3.9 83 1 0.8 Ron Karkovice
Jurickson Profar 346 4.1 83 0 0.8 Rance Mulliniks
Brett Nicholas 480 3.9 79 -5 0.7 Geronimo Gil
Cesar Puello 328 5.0 97 -3 0.7 Shane Mack
Prince Fielder 472 4.9 98 0 0.5 Pete O’Brien
Jose Cardona 498 3.6 75 2 0.5 David Murphy
Ryan Rua 382 4.3 85 1 0.4 Matthew Cepicky
Andy Ibanez 568 3.9 82 -3 0.4 Jason Hardtke
Delino DeShields 494 4.2 81 -6 0.3 Stan Javier
Josh Morgan 523 3.6 72 1 0.3 Brennan King
Jose Trevino 436 3.0 60 3 0.2 Jeff Winchester
Michael De Leon 473 3.1 61 5 0.2 Jorge Velandia
James Loney 502 4.7 91 0 0.2 Jim Rushford
Nevin Ashley 265 3.0 61 0 0.1 Chad Moeller
Doug Bernier 377 3.0 62 5 0.1 Jeff Branson
Josh Hamilton 273 4.3 88 -3 -0.1 George Hendrick
Matt Lipka 395 2.7 49 8 -0.2 Dan Odgers
Jason Martinson 506 2.9 55 5 -0.3 Kody Kirkland
Will Middlebrooks 374 3.1 67 1 -0.3 Seth Johnston
Juremi Profar 430 3.8 77 4 -0.3 Carlos Mendez
Travis Snider 317 4.1 83 -4 -0.3 Ray Giannelli
Drew Robinson 508 3.7 77 -1 -0.3 Glenn Davis
Steven Lerud 208 2.4 47 -2 -0.3 Jayhawk Owens
Darin Mastroianni 363 3.0 55 -1 -0.7 Charles Thomas
Pat Cantwell 236 2.3 44 -2 -0.7 Dave Ullery
Alex Burg 333 3.1 62 -9 -0.7 Jeff Ontiveros
Luis Mendez 346 2.2 44 3 -0.9 Mark Farris
Preston Beck 457 3.5 70 -3 -0.9 Matt Bowser
Edwin Garcia 305 2.5 46 0 -1.0 Nestor Perez
Ronald Guzman 550 3.7 74 -2 -1.2 Greg Litton
Jairo Beras 442 3.0 62 -6 -1.9 Thomas Pittman
Shoeful Joe Jackson 436 3.0 60 -8 -2.1 Kevin Wiggins

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Cole Hamels L 33 30 30 190.7 177 61 23 187 82 77
Yu Darvish R 30 24 24 139.3 162 46 16 129 58 54
Tyson Ross R 30 21 21 123.0 109 52 13 126 62 58
Colby Lewis R 37 22 22 129.3 90 33 18 142 68 64
Martin Perez L 26 23 23 132.7 79 45 14 146 71 66
Mike Hauschild R 27 25 22 127.0 95 38 15 141 68 64
Nick Martinez R 26 29 23 138.3 84 46 19 159 77 72
Yohander Mendez L 22 25 17 91.0 78 38 10 93 47 44
Ariel Jurado R 21 24 20 110.7 78 32 14 125 61 57
Andrew Cashner R 30 25 25 133.0 106 48 19 146 76 71
Jeremy Jeffress R 29 63 0 62.3 52 21 5 64 25 23
Sam Dyson R 29 73 0 70.3 61 20 7 69 29 27
Chi Chi Gonzalez R 25 28 25 137.3 83 53 16 157 79 74
Matt Bush R 31 67 0 65.3 69 19 7 59 27 25
A.J. Griffin R 29 21 21 109.7 93 37 20 113 62 58
Alex Claudio L 25 52 0 67.0 49 15 6 70 28 26
Adrian Sampson R 25 22 22 124.3 82 29 20 144 72 67
Dillon Gee R 31 27 19 129.0 87 36 20 148 74 69
Tony Barnette R 33 47 0 49.0 45 16 5 47 19 18
Keone Kela R 24 54 0 50.3 62 18 6 43 20 19
Jake Diekman L 30 67 0 58.0 66 27 6 51 26 24
Eric Jokisch L 27 24 14 88.3 58 28 13 103 50 47
Dario Alvarez L 28 53 0 54.0 73 23 8 48 26 24
Tyler Wagner R 26 18 17 92.0 62 36 15 106 56 52
Connor Sadzeck R 25 23 21 104.7 71 60 13 119 64 60
Allen Webster R 27 20 18 103.0 77 50 16 116 64 60
Jaye Chapman R 30 44 0 44.0 44 15 7 44 22 21
Jimmy Reyes L 28 41 3 63.7 40 20 8 73 35 33
Eric Surkamp L 29 33 17 103.7 81 39 18 118 64 60
Jose Leclerc R 23 55 0 69.0 76 50 7 63 36 34
Jeff Malm L 26 41 0 48.7 39 16 6 53 26 24
Adam Parks R 24 26 0 39.7 36 14 6 43 21 20
Tanner Scheppers R 30 45 0 41.3 35 20 5 40 22 21
John Fasola R 25 37 0 47.3 41 15 7 50 26 24
Lucas Harrell R 32 24 21 112.0 79 70 14 124 72 67
Andrew Faulkner L 24 49 6 71.7 58 36 11 77 43 40
Craig Breslow L 36 39 0 47.0 35 20 7 55 27 25
Scott Carroll R 32 27 18 105.0 53 40 16 128 70 65
Anthony Carter R 31 52 0 46.7 35 29 6 50 29 27
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 32 22 15 88.3 63 29 18 105 60 56
Kyle Lohse R 38 17 13 77.7 48 24 14 94 55 51
Brady Dragmire R 24 44 0 66.3 39 31 8 80 41 38
Ryne Slack L 24 41 0 54.7 40 33 9 62 37 35
Juan Grullon L 27 37 0 59.7 47 29 11 69 41 38

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Cole Hamels 190.7 820 21.6% 7.4% .298 3.63 3.87 83 91
Yu Darvish 139.3 593 27.3% 7.8% .310 3.49 3.33 80 78
Tyson Ross 123.0 547 19.9% 9.5% .308 4.24 4.07 97 96
Colby Lewis 129.3 563 16.0% 5.9% .298 4.45 4.41 102 104
Martin Perez 132.7 589 13.4% 7.6% .295 4.48 4.35 102 102
Mike Hauschild 127.0 560 17.0% 6.8% .311 4.54 4.21 104 99
Nick Martinez 138.3 620 13.5% 7.4% .303 4.68 4.85 107 114
Yohander Mendez 91.0 404 19.3% 9.4% .304 4.35 4.24 99 100
Ariel Jurado 110.7 489 16.0% 6.5% .309 4.64 4.37 106 103
Andrew Cashner 133.0 593 17.9% 8.1% .306 4.80 4.52 110 106
Jeremy Jeffress 62.3 272 19.1% 7.7% .311 3.32 3.49 76 82
Sam Dyson 70.3 300 20.3% 6.7% .297 3.45 3.60 79 85
Chi Chi Gonzalez 137.3 622 13.3% 8.5% .305 4.85 4.72 111 111
Matt Bush 65.3 274 25.2% 6.9% .294 3.44 3.35 79 79
A.J. Griffin 109.7 479 19.4% 7.7% .287 4.76 4.90 109 115
Alex Claudio 67.0 286 17.1% 5.2% .300 3.49 3.57 80 84
Adrian Sampson 124.3 546 15.0% 5.3% .303 4.85 4.70 111 111
Dillon Gee 129.0 571 15.2% 6.3% .303 4.81 4.70 110 111
Tony Barnette 49.0 210 21.4% 7.6% .298 3.31 3.70 76 87
Keone Kela 50.3 212 29.2% 8.5% .298 3.40 3.38 78 80
Jake Diekman 58.0 252 26.2% 10.7% .300 3.72 3.62 85 85
Eric Jokisch 88.3 396 14.6% 7.1% .307 4.79 4.76 109 112
Dario Alvarez 54.0 233 31.3% 9.9% .320 4.00 3.77 91 89
Tyler Wagner 92.0 418 14.8% 8.6% .303 5.09 5.21 116 123
Connor Sadzeck 104.7 493 14.4% 12.2% .309 5.16 5.26 118 124
Allen Webster 103.0 475 16.2% 10.5% .308 5.24 5.29 120 124
Jaye Chapman 44.0 191 23.0% 7.9% .301 4.30 4.27 98 100
Jimmy Reyes 63.7 284 14.1% 7.0% .305 4.66 4.57 107 107
Eric Surkamp 103.7 468 17.3% 8.3% .310 5.21 5.07 119 119
Jose Leclerc 69.0 320 23.8% 15.6% .304 4.43 4.44 101 104
Jeff Malm 48.7 215 18.1% 7.4% .311 4.44 4.28 101 101
Adam Parks 39.7 176 20.5% 8.0% .316 4.54 4.54 104 107
Tanner Scheppers 41.3 184 19.0% 10.9% .289 4.57 4.44 104 104
John Fasola 47.3 207 19.8% 7.2% .305 4.56 4.37 104 103
Lucas Harrell 112.0 530 14.9% 13.2% .306 5.38 5.36 123 126
Andrew Faulkner 71.7 328 17.7% 11.0% .300 5.02 5.03 115 118
Craig Breslow 47.0 216 16.2% 9.3% .314 4.79 4.77 109 112
Scott Carroll 105.0 483 11.0% 8.3% .305 5.57 5.39 127 127
Anthony Carter 46.7 219 16.0% 13.2% .299 5.21 5.21 119 123
Austin Bibens-Dirkx 88.3 399 15.8% 7.3% .306 5.71 5.48 130 129
Kyle Lohse 77.7 351 13.7% 6.8% .305 5.91 5.22 135 123
Brady Dragmire 66.3 310 12.6% 10.0% .316 5.16 5.08 118 120
Ryne Slack 54.7 259 15.4% 12.7% .306 5.76 5.76 132 136
Juan Grullon 59.7 277 17.0% 10.5% .310 5.73 5.39 131 127

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Cole Hamels 190.7 8.35 2.88 1.09 116 4.1 Kenny Rogers
Yu Darvish 139.3 10.46 2.97 1.03 121 3.2 Jason Schmidt
Tyson Ross 123.0 7.98 3.80 0.95 99 1.7 Pat Rapp
Colby Lewis 129.3 6.26 2.30 1.25 95 1.4 Tim Belcher
Martin Perez 132.7 5.36 3.05 0.95 94 1.4 Bill Wight
Mike Hauschild 127.0 6.73 2.69 1.06 93 1.3 Mike LaCoss
Nick Martinez 138.3 5.47 2.99 1.24 90 1.1 Bobby Chouinard
Yohander Mendez 91.0 7.71 3.76 0.99 97 1.1 Brian Snyder
Ariel Jurado 110.7 6.34 2.60 1.14 91 0.9 Michael Macdonald
Andrew Cashner 133.0 7.17 3.25 1.29 88 0.9 Dennis Burtt
Jeremy Jeffress 62.3 7.51 3.03 0.72 127 0.9 Greg Minton
Sam Dyson 70.3 7.81 2.56 0.90 122 0.9 Cory Bailey
Chi Chi Gonzalez 137.3 5.44 3.47 1.05 87 0.8 Jake Dittler
Matt Bush 65.3 9.51 2.62 0.96 122 0.8 Dan Miceli
A.J. Griffin 109.7 7.63 3.04 1.64 88 0.8 Jeremy Cummings
Alex Claudio 67.0 6.58 2.01 0.81 121 0.8 Harry Eisenstat
Adrian Sampson 124.3 5.94 2.10 1.45 87 0.8 Bob Tewksbury
Dillon Gee 129.0 6.07 2.51 1.40 87 0.8 Jonathan Figueroa
Tony Barnette 49.0 8.27 2.94 0.92 127 0.7 Warren Brusstar
Keone Kela 50.3 11.09 3.22 1.07 124 0.7 Antonio Osuna
Jake Diekman 58.0 10.24 4.19 0.93 113 0.5 Kevin Tolar
Eric Jokisch 88.3 5.91 2.85 1.32 88 0.5 Norm Montoya
Dario Alvarez 54.0 12.17 3.83 1.33 105 0.3 Greg McCarthy
Tyler Wagner 92.0 6.07 3.52 1.47 83 0.3 Joel Moore
Connor Sadzeck 104.7 6.11 5.16 1.12 82 0.2 Rick Berg
Allen Webster 103.0 6.73 4.37 1.40 80 0.1 Daron Kirkreit
Jaye Chapman 44.0 9.00 3.07 1.43 98 0.1 Nate Field
Jimmy Reyes 63.7 5.65 2.83 1.13 90 0.1 Tom Burgmeier
Eric Surkamp 103.7 7.03 3.39 1.56 81 0.0 Kevin Rawitzer
Jose Leclerc 69.0 9.91 6.52 0.91 95 0.0 Tom Thurberg
Jeff Malm 48.7 7.21 2.96 1.11 95 0.0 Ed Farmer
Adam Parks 39.7 8.17 3.18 1.36 93 0.0 Frank DiPino
Tanner Scheppers 41.3 7.62 4.35 1.09 92 -0.1 Jason Bullard
John Fasola 47.3 7.80 2.85 1.33 92 -0.1 Rory Shortell
Lucas Harrell 112.0 6.35 5.63 1.13 78 -0.1 Dick Fowler
Andrew Faulkner 71.7 7.28 4.52 1.38 84 -0.1 Glenn Bott
Craig Breslow 47.0 6.70 3.83 1.34 88 -0.2 Dave Righetti
Scott Carroll 105.0 4.54 3.43 1.37 76 -0.4 Brian Cooper
Anthony Carter 46.7 6.75 5.59 1.16 81 -0.4 Bucky Brandon
Austin Bibens-Dirkx 88.3 6.42 2.95 1.83 74 -0.5 Jeff Harris
Kyle Lohse 77.7 5.56 2.78 1.62 71 -0.6 Dennis Springer
Brady Dragmire 66.3 5.29 4.21 1.09 82 -0.6 Timothy Burton
Ryne Slack 54.7 6.59 5.43 1.48 73 -0.9 Randy Phillips
Juan Grullon 59.7 7.09 4.37 1.66 73 -0.9 Chad Miles

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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