2017 ZiPS Projections – Toronto Blue Jays

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Toronto Blue Jays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Chicago NL / Washington.

Batters
The Blue Jays find themselves in a strangely enviable position right now, if ZiPS is to be believed. The loss both of Jose Bautista (510 PA, 3.1 zWAR) and Edwin Encarnacion (576, 3.6) to free agency creates obvious areas of weakness for the club, nor does the combination of Ezequiel Carrera (381, 0.5) and Melvin Upton Jr. (433, 0.4) appear to be what the metaphorical doctor ordered so far as compensating for those losses. That said, every other position on the team (with the exception of first base) is occupied by a capable starter. Translation: the roster can be improved easily by the installation of even just average players in the corner-outfield slots (and/or first base). The Blue Jays’ reported interest in Jay Bruce and Dexter Fowler (the latter of whom received a three-win projection from ZiPS) is unsurprising, as a result.

Pitchers
Toronto starters produced the highest collective WAR among all American League clubs in 2016, recording slightly more than 15 wins as a group. The rotation for 2017, as presently constructed, would appear to be a candidate for repeating that distinction. Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman, and Francisco Liriano are projected to compile nearly 15 wins among themselves. Even without any offseason additions, in other words, the club’s starting corps appears to be a real strength.

As for the bullpen, while it lacks a relief ace on par with Andrew Miller, it does feature a real force in Roberto Osuna (71.2 IP, 64 ERA-). After Osuna, however, there’s less certainty. The second-best option at the back of the bullpen might actually be a pitcher who’s recorded just 13.2 career innings: right-hander Danny Barnes (66.1, 82). Despite possessing a fastball that sits at a relatively modest 92 mph, Barnes recorded strikeout and walk rates of 36.0% and 2.8%, respectively, in just over 60 innings at Double- and Triple-A this past year. ZiPS appears to be swayed by those impressive minor-league numbers.

Bench/Prospects
Even as the Blue Jays are likely to search for corner-outfield solutions in free agency or by way of trade, it’s possible that the club already possesses the answer in Lourdes Gurriel (567 PA, 1.7 zWAR), signed earlier this month to a seven-year, $22 million deal. According to ZiPS, Gurriel probably isn’t a left fielder for a championship club at the moment. That said, he’d also probably represent an improvement over either Carrera or Upton Jr. There isn’t a wealth of MLB-ready position players after Gurriel, although Andy Burns (522, 0.9) and Dwight Smith Jr. (539, 0.9) offer some combination of offensive and defensive competence.

The Toronto system features almost nothing in the way of present value on the pitching side. The top projection for an actual prospect belongs to right-hander Sean Reid-Foley (102.1 IP, 0.0 zWAR), who profiles as a replacement-level player according to Dan Szymborski’s computer.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Blue Jays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

jays-depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Josh Donaldson R 31 3B 657 98 155 32 3 34 105 6 1
Edwin Encarnacion R 34 DH 576 78 131 27 1 34 111 2 1
Troy Tulowitzki R 32 SS 481 53 111 21 0 19 67 1 0
Kevin Pillar R 28 CF 609 66 155 37 3 11 63 17 6
Russell Martin R 34 C 462 52 92 16 0 18 71 3 3
Jose Bautista R 36 RF 510 70 107 22 1 27 85 4 2
Devon Travis R 26 2B 471 60 124 29 2 15 61 6 2
Kendrys Morales B 34 DH 557 63 134 26 1 25 94 0 0
Lourdes Gurriel R 23 LF 567 68 138 29 0 17 78 11 7
Michael Saunders L 30 LF 427 55 94 21 3 16 55 3 3
Matt Dominguez R 27 3B 542 57 126 23 0 19 71 0 0
Andy Burns R 26 3B 522 50 117 27 2 11 52 11 7
A.J. Jimenez R 27 C 240 21 55 16 1 3 25 2 1
Dwight Smith Jr. L 24 LF 539 56 119 24 4 13 56 8 4
Dioner Navarro B 33 C 318 26 72 13 1 8 41 1 1
Darwin Barney R 31 2B 356 37 82 14 1 5 29 3 2
Dalton Pompey B 24 CF 497 53 104 16 4 9 40 22 6
Reese McGuire L 22 C 407 36 90 20 2 1 32 8 9
Rowdy Tellez L 22 1B 514 59 116 24 1 21 69 4 3
David Adams R 30 2B 342 34 73 15 2 6 34 2 1
Ryan Lavarnway R 29 C 285 28 61 13 0 5 27 0 0
Richard Urena B 21 SS 576 58 134 20 6 18 66 6 7
Ezequiel Carrera L 30 RF 381 46 85 12 3 6 33 15 6
Anthony Alford R 22 CF 462 46 86 17 3 10 41 15 8
Timmy Lopes R 23 2B 576 55 128 23 4 2 41 19 10
Alexi Casilla B 32 SS 271 26 61 11 2 3 22 6 2
Melvin Upton Jr. R 32 LF 433 49 87 16 3 13 43 15 5
Justin Smoak B 30 1B 387 44 79 16 0 16 54 0 1
Darrell Ceciliani L 27 LF 385 43 85 17 3 10 44 12 4
Jesus Montero R 27 1B 490 57 128 22 2 17 70 1 0
Junior Lake R 27 RF 378 39 77 17 2 10 37 10 5
Mike Ohlman R 26 C 369 38 78 16 1 8 37 1 1
Casey Kotchman L 34 1B 301 30 69 13 0 6 34 1 0
Ryan Goins L 29 2B 425 37 88 18 3 5 37 2 2
Wilkin Castillo B 33 C 136 12 30 7 1 1 12 1 2
Melky Mesa R 30 CF 310 26 59 15 2 8 30 3 2
Jon Berti R 27 2B 463 43 97 14 4 5 34 24 10
Erik Kratz R 37 C 188 16 32 8 0 4 16 0 0
Chris Colabello R 33 1B 347 38 76 14 0 14 46 1 1
Josh Thole L 30 C 177 13 35 5 0 1 12 0 1
Jiovanni Mier R 26 SS 354 34 68 14 1 5 31 5 3
Christian Lopes R 24 2B 468 42 99 21 1 5 36 5 3
Jason Leblebijian R 26 3B 437 41 85 18 1 10 42 6 4
Harold Ramirez R 22 RF 441 45 102 16 5 4 42 10 13
Ryan McBroom R 25 1B 503 51 110 24 1 17 65 4 3
Roemon Fields L 26 CF 498 41 96 11 3 3 29 28 11
Domonic Brown L 29 RF 488 47 106 22 1 11 60 7 3
Ian Parmley L 27 RF 278 22 51 5 2 1 15 7 3
Dickie Joe Thon R 25 2B 419 35 75 15 2 7 33 9 7
D.J. Davis L 22 CF 439 36 79 12 3 5 30 15 9

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Josh Donaldson 657 12.5% 19.3% .249 .298 .276 .372 .525 .379
Edwin Encarnacion 576 12.0% 17.9% .264 .266 .264 .356 .528 .370
Troy Tulowitzki 481 8.5% 20.6% .181 .290 .258 .326 .439 .326
Kevin Pillar 609 3.9% 15.8% .133 .307 .271 .305 .404 .312
Russell Martin 462 11.3% 25.5% .177 .281 .233 .334 .410 .326
Jose Bautista 510 15.1% 18.8% .247 .261 .252 .369 .499 .371
Devon Travis 471 6.2% 18.5% .179 .323 .284 .330 .463 .343
Kendrys Morales 557 7.7% 20.3% .204 .295 .266 .329 .470 .338
Lourdes Gurriel 567 6.9% 12.7% .155 .281 .267 .324 .422 .324
Michael Saunders 427 10.8% 26.5% .201 .313 .251 .333 .452 .338
Matt Dominguez 542 4.2% 18.3% .158 .271 .248 .285 .406 .294
Andy Burns 522 5.6% 21.8% .131 .291 .241 .285 .372 .293
A.J. Jimenez 240 4.2% 19.2% .120 .291 .243 .279 .363 .281
Dwight Smith Jr. 539 6.9% 21.5% .144 .287 .240 .296 .384 .299
Dioner Navarro 318 6.6% 17.6% .134 .277 .247 .297 .381 .292
Darwin Barney 356 5.6% 14.9% .095 .283 .250 .297 .345 .279
Dalton Pompey 497 8.2% 24.9% .113 .299 .232 .299 .345 .297
Reese McGuire 407 6.4% 14.3% .073 .282 .242 .293 .315 .279
Rowdy Tellez 514 7.8% 25.5% .192 .299 .249 .311 .441 .322
David Adams 342 7.6% 21.3% .119 .288 .235 .299 .354 .289
Ryan Lavarnway 285 8.1% 21.8% .109 .292 .236 .305 .345 .288
Richard Urena 576 3.3% 24.7% .157 .297 .245 .271 .402 .291
Ezequiel Carrera 381 7.1% 21.3% .106 .309 .249 .310 .355 .302
Anthony Alford 462 8.9% 36.1% .128 .317 .208 .284 .336 .287
Timmy Lopes 576 5.9% 20.1% .071 .306 .243 .295 .314 .280
Alexi Casilla 271 5.2% 17.3% .095 .284 .240 .280 .335 .273
Melvin Upton Jr. 433 7.6% 31.4% .155 .298 .221 .281 .376 .292
Justin Smoak 387 10.3% 27.4% .187 .283 .230 .313 .417 .316
Darrell Ceciliani 385 5.2% 27.3% .148 .305 .237 .281 .385 .295
Jesus Montero 490 4.3% 20.6% .166 .318 .276 .308 .442 .320
Junior Lake 378 7.7% 31.7% .148 .310 .224 .286 .372 .297
Mike Ohlman 369 7.0% 29.8% .124 .314 .231 .285 .355 .280
Casey Kotchman 301 7.0% 11.3% .112 .267 .250 .312 .362 .296
Ryan Goins 425 5.4% 22.4% .100 .283 .226 .269 .326 .257
Wilkin Castillo 136 4.4% 15.4% .095 .276 .238 .276 .333 .269
Melky Mesa 310 3.2% 39.4% .146 .307 .200 .235 .346 .255
Jon Berti 463 6.3% 21.8% .088 .288 .229 .289 .317 .287
Erik Kratz 188 5.3% 32.4% .115 .255 .184 .235 .299 .234
Chris Colabello 347 6.6% 30.8% .176 .310 .238 .294 .414 .305
Josh Thole 177 8.5% 18.1% .050 .270 .222 .291 .272 .255
Jiovanni Mier 354 7.6% 26.0% .097 .283 .214 .278 .311 .264
Christian Lopes 468 6.6% 23.3% .089 .297 .231 .288 .320 .272
Jason Leblebijian 437 5.9% 34.1% .124 .304 .211 .264 .335 .268
Harold Ramirez 441 4.5% 21.5% .093 .314 .249 .296 .342 .295
Ryan McBroom 503 4.6% 28.6% .164 .297 .236 .276 .400 .293
Roemon Fields 498 5.4% 26.3% .056 .283 .208 .254 .264 .249
Domonic Brown 488 6.1% 21.3% .126 .279 .235 .285 .361 .284
Ian Parmley 278 6.5% 31.7% .047 .301 .202 .253 .249 .231
Dickie Joe Thon 419 4.8% 37.2% .103 .297 .192 .242 .295 .247
D.J. Davis 439 6.4% 36.0% .082 .307 .197 .253 .279 .250

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Josh Donaldson 657 7.4 141 6 7.0 Bob Elliott
Edwin Encarnacion 576 6.9 137 0 3.6 Andre Thornton
Troy Tulowitzki 481 5.2 106 4 3.3 Johnny Logan
Kevin Pillar 609 4.7 92 11 3.2 Johnny Groth
Russell Martin 462 4.7 102 1 3.1 Chris Hoiles
Jose Bautista 510 6.6 134 -4 3.1 Brian Downing
Devon Travis 471 5.8 113 0 2.9 Jeff Kent
Kendrys Morales 557 5.7 115 0 2.0 Richie Zisk
Lourdes Gurriel 567 5.0 102 3 1.7 Magglio Ordonez
Michael Saunders 427 5.4 112 1 1.7 Ryan Church
Matt Dominguez 542 4.1 86 3 1.6 Blair Barbier
Andy Burns 522 3.7 78 3 0.9 Nelson Johnson
A.J. Jimenez 240 3.6 74 3 0.9 Brook Fordyce
Dwight Smith Jr. 539 4.0 84 6 0.9 D.J. Boston
Dioner Navarro 318 4.0 83 -3 0.9 Jamie Quirk
Darwin Barney 356 3.7 75 5 0.8 Rennie Stennett
Dalton Pompey 497 3.9 76 -1 0.8 Benny Agbayani
Reese McGuire 407 3.0 66 2 0.7 John Mizerock
Rowdy Tellez 514 4.9 102 -2 0.7 Adam LaRoche
David Adams 342 3.7 78 1 0.7 Dick Green
Ryan Lavarnway 285 3.7 77 -3 0.7 Dave Toth
Richard Urena 576 3.7 80 -6 0.6 Cris Colon
Ezequiel Carrera 381 4.1 81 3 0.5 Cory Sullivan
Anthony Alford 462 3.2 68 3 0.5 Ben Shelton
Timmy Lopes 576 3.3 67 5 0.5 Andy Stankiewicz
Alexi Casilla 271 3.4 67 2 0.5 Jose Olmeda
Melvin Upton Jr. 433 3.8 77 5 0.4 Bo Porter
Justin Smoak 387 4.5 97 -1 0.4 Carmelo Martinez
Darrell Ceciliani 385 4.0 80 3 0.3 Matt Cimo
Jesus Montero 490 5.1 101 -6 0.3 Nicholas Stavinoha
Junior Lake 378 3.7 78 3 0.2 Randy Salava
Mike Ohlman 369 3.5 74 -8 0.1 Dusty Brown
Casey Kotchman 301 4.1 84 1 0.1 Glenn Adams
Ryan Goins 425 3.0 61 4 0.0 Juan Castro
Wilkin Castillo 136 3.0 66 -2 -0.1 Rollie Hemsley
Melky Mesa 310 2.7 56 4 -0.1 Greg Catalanotte
Jon Berti 463 3.3 65 -2 -0.1 Elvis Pena
Erik Kratz 188 2.3 45 0 -0.2 Tony Pena
Chris Colabello 347 4.3 90 -3 -0.2 Gene Schall
Josh Thole 177 2.6 56 -3 -0.3 Bob Swift
Jiovanni Mier 354 2.9 61 -3 -0.3 Jason Camilli
Christian Lopes 468 3.2 66 -3 -0.3 Lionel Hastings
Jason Leblebijian 437 3.0 62 -2 -0.5 Tim Olson
Harold Ramirez 441 3.2 74 1 -0.6 Alexis Rios
Ryan McBroom 503 3.9 82 -2 -0.7 Lance Belen
Roemon Fields 498 2.4 42 7 -0.7 Freddie Money
Domonic Brown 488 3.7 75 -5 -0.9 Jim O’Dell
Ian Parmley 278 2.2 38 4 -1.0 Jay Sitzman
Dickie Joe Thon 419 2.3 46 -1 -1.3 Robert McIntyre
D.J. Davis 439 2.3 45 -3 -1.6 Yuber Rodriguez

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Aaron Sanchez R 24 31 31 196.0 176 62 20 176 78 73
Marco Estrada R 33 29 29 180.3 129 52 24 159 82 77
J.A. Happ L 34 28 27 154.7 137 46 20 150 73 68
Marcus Stroman R 26 23 23 140.7 119 35 15 141 66 62
Francisco Liriano L 33 29 28 158.0 174 71 24 147 79 74
Roberto Osuna R 22 72 0 71.7 83 15 9 59 24 22
Scott Feldman R 34 27 13 95.0 66 27 13 103 48 45
Mike Bolsinger R 29 26 20 112.0 111 42 17 116 61 57
Joaquin Benoit R 39 48 0 44.0 46 18 6 38 16 15
Danny Barnes R 27 50 0 66.3 78 15 9 60 28 26
Joe Biagini R 27 60 0 66.7 63 20 8 67 30 28
Jason Grilli R 40 47 0 41.3 53 18 6 35 18 17
Ryan Tepera R 29 53 0 61.0 60 23 8 59 29 27
Aaron Loup L 29 57 0 48.0 47 16 6 46 22 21
Leonel Campos R 29 46 0 58.3 71 30 7 51 28 26
Blake McFarland R 29 44 0 55.3 61 16 8 52 27 25
Wil Browning R 28 48 0 49.3 51 18 7 47 25 23
Gavin Floyd R 34 18 4 34.3 30 10 6 36 19 18
Casey Lawrence R 29 25 24 142.3 82 37 22 171 88 82
Sean Reid-Foley R 21 24 24 102.3 106 64 15 101 63 59
Francisco Rios R 22 22 18 97.3 72 35 15 108 61 57
Dominic Leone R 25 55 0 62.0 61 24 9 64 33 31
Chris Smith R 28 40 0 53.7 56 20 8 52 29 27
Bobby Korecky R 37 29 0 36.3 30 12 5 39 20 19
Murphy Smith R 29 32 7 72.7 55 32 10 79 44 41
Scott Diamond L 30 26 24 137.0 77 31 23 167 87 81
John Stilson R 26 25 0 33.7 28 15 5 36 19 18
Wilmer Font R 27 26 5 50.0 43 18 8 53 31 29
Matt Dermody L 26 47 0 67.0 49 15 8 74 37 35
Chad Girodo L 26 46 0 56.3 45 18 9 61 32 30
Jarrett Grube R 35 20 17 94.7 75 28 20 107 62 58
Ryan Borucki L 23 18 18 85.3 60 33 16 100 58 54
Scott Copeland R 29 24 22 120.3 70 52 20 143 81 76
Conner Greene R 22 26 26 127.3 88 66 20 146 88 82
Jason Berken R 33 24 13 98.0 60 34 19 118 68 64

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Aaron Sanchez 196.0 826 21.3% 7.5% .277 3.35 3.66 78 86
Marco Estrada 180.3 752 17.2% 6.9% .249 3.84 4.32 89 102
J.A. Happ 154.7 660 20.8% 7.0% .286 3.96 3.95 92 93
Marcus Stroman 140.7 598 19.9% 5.9% .296 3.97 3.61 92 85
Francisco Liriano 158.0 692 25.1% 10.3% .295 4.22 4.32 98 102
Roberto Osuna 71.7 289 28.7% 5.2% .278 2.76 3.01 64 71
Scott Feldman 95.0 415 15.9% 6.5% .295 4.26 4.41 99 104
Mike Bolsinger 112.0 494 22.5% 8.5% .309 4.58 4.28 107 101
Joaquin Benoit 44.0 188 24.5% 9.6% .274 3.07 4.02 72 94
Danny Barnes 66.3 274 28.5% 5.5% .302 3.53 3.33 82 78
Joe Biagini 66.7 287 21.9% 7.0% .307 3.78 3.81 88 90
Jason Grilli 41.3 177 30.0% 10.2% .293 3.70 3.74 86 88
Ryan Tepera 61.0 265 22.6% 8.7% .300 3.98 4.07 93 96
Aaron Loup 48.0 206 22.8% 7.8% .303 3.94 4.02 92 95
Leonel Campos 58.3 256 27.7% 11.7% .302 4.01 3.83 93 90
Blake McFarland 55.3 234 26.1% 6.8% .300 4.07 3.70 95 87
Wil Browning 49.3 213 24.0% 8.5% .299 4.20 4.10 98 96
Gavin Floyd 34.3 149 20.1% 6.7% .297 4.72 4.68 110 110
Casey Lawrence 142.3 635 12.9% 5.8% .307 5.19 4.91 121 116
Sean Reid-Foley 102.3 472 22.5% 13.6% .306 5.19 4.99 121 117
Francisco Rios 97.3 435 16.6% 8.0% .303 5.27 4.89 123 115
Dominic Leone 62.0 274 22.3% 8.8% .311 4.50 4.14 105 97
Chris Smith 53.7 233 24.0% 8.6% .301 4.53 4.24 106 100
Bobby Korecky 36.3 160 18.8% 7.5% .307 4.71 4.32 110 102
Murphy Smith 72.7 329 16.7% 9.7% .304 5.08 4.87 118 115
Scott Diamond 137.0 609 12.6% 5.1% .306 5.32 5.00 124 118
John Stilson 33.7 152 18.4% 9.9% .304 4.81 4.89 112 115
Wilmer Font 50.0 221 19.5% 8.1% .302 5.22 4.73 122 111
Matt Dermody 67.0 290 16.9% 5.2% .310 4.70 4.09 110 96
Chad Girodo 56.3 248 18.2% 7.3% .301 4.79 4.70 112 111
Jarrett Grube 94.7 419 17.9% 6.7% .299 5.51 5.31 128 125
Ryan Borucki 85.3 389 15.4% 8.5% .306 5.70 5.47 133 129
Scott Copeland 120.3 556 12.6% 9.4% .302 5.68 5.55 132 131
Conner Greene 127.3 594 14.8% 11.1% .306 5.80 5.51 135 130
Jason Berken 98.0 446 13.5% 7.6% .302 5.88 5.60 137 132

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Aaron Sanchez 196.0 8.08 2.85 0.92 123 4.6 Dave Stieb
Marco Estrada 180.3 6.44 2.60 1.20 108 3.1 Bob Forsch
J.A. Happ 154.7 7.97 2.68 1.16 104 2.5 Kenny Rogers
Marcus Stroman 140.7 7.61 2.24 0.96 104 2.2 Mike Scott
Francisco Liriano 158.0 9.91 4.04 1.37 98 2.0 Shawn Estes
Roberto Osuna 71.7 10.42 1.88 1.13 150 1.4 Luis DeLeon
Scott Feldman 95.0 6.25 2.56 1.23 97 1.0 Jack Kramer
Mike Bolsinger 112.0 8.92 3.38 1.37 90 0.9 Freddie Toliver
Joaquin Benoit 44.0 9.41 3.68 1.23 135 0.7 Roberto Hernandez
Danny Barnes 66.3 10.59 2.04 1.22 117 0.7 Steve Reed
Joe Biagini 66.7 8.50 2.70 1.08 109 0.5 Braden Looper
Jason Grilli 41.3 11.55 3.92 1.31 112 0.3 Greg Harris
Ryan Tepera 61.0 8.85 3.39 1.18 104 0.3 Kevin Gryboski
Aaron Loup 48.0 8.81 3.00 1.13 105 0.2 Eric Gunderson
Leonel Campos 58.3 10.96 4.63 1.08 103 0.2 Calvin Jones
Blake McFarland 55.3 9.93 2.60 1.30 102 0.2 Aaron Rakers
Wil Browning 49.3 9.31 3.29 1.28 99 0.1 David Holdridge
Gavin Floyd 34.3 7.87 2.62 1.57 88 0.1 Blas Minor
Casey Lawrence 142.3 5.19 2.34 1.39 80 0.1 Dave Borkowski
Sean Reid-Foley 102.3 9.33 5.63 1.32 80 0.0 Phil Stockman
Francisco Rios 97.3 6.66 3.24 1.39 78 -0.1 Preston Larrison
Dominic Leone 62.0 8.85 3.48 1.31 92 -0.1 Rich Scalamandre
Chris Smith 53.7 9.39 3.35 1.34 91 -0.1 Carlos Muniz
Bobby Korecky 36.3 7.44 2.98 1.24 88 -0.2 Terry Clark
Murphy Smith 72.7 6.81 3.96 1.24 81 -0.2 Marty McLeary
Scott Diamond 137.0 5.06 2.04 1.51 78 -0.2 Scott Downs
John Stilson 33.7 7.48 4.01 1.34 86 -0.2 Tom Dukes
Wilmer Font 50.0 7.74 3.24 1.44 79 -0.2 Lou Pote
Matt Dermody 67.0 6.58 2.01 1.07 88 -0.3 Chris Key
Chad Girodo 56.3 7.19 2.88 1.44 86 -0.3 Bart Haley
Jarrett Grube 94.7 7.13 2.66 1.90 75 -0.4 Shawn Boskie
Ryan Borucki 85.3 6.33 3.48 1.69 73 -0.5 David Lundberg
Scott Copeland 120.3 5.24 3.89 1.50 73 -0.7 Robert Ellis
Conner Greene 127.3 6.22 4.67 1.41 71 -0.9 Jason Standridge
Jason Berken 98.0 5.51 3.12 1.74 70 -0.9 Aaron Small

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.



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