Nice article. I also think the crapshootness is overstated, there’s certainly a degree of it, but I’d be fairly surprised if this even went 5. The Yankees have the Morneau-less Twins solidly covered in pretty much every aspect.
With Morneau there, Cuddyer moves to the OF, Kubel to DH, and the Twins have 4 hitters with wOBA’s over .370, and Denard Span at the top of the lineup. Obviously that’s not the Yankees lineup, but it’s reasonably close (probably a difference of less than half a run per game).
The big gap is the pitching. The Twins are gonna need a lot of luck w/ BABIP and LOB%.
Anyone think that it would be optimal to start Burnett tonight over CC? The Twins rotation is in shambles, sending out a back-of-the-rotation guy, the bullpen is fried, and the team is a little tired. Why not save CC for game two when the Yankees will face a better pitcher and a rested bullpen?
Comment by Thank You Michael Lewis — October 7, 2009 @ 2:52 pm
Just so you know Dave, Duensing’s “first taste of the bigs” actually was when he started the season with the Twins and made 1 relief appearance of 3 innings on April 10th. Unless your comment means Duensing first became a full-time major-league starter in mid-August (he had a spot start at the end of July), he had 15 appearances totaling 35 1/3 IP before his Aug. 22nd start.
Is this right? I mean, if they’re down 2-0, they have to win three games – might as well ensure optimal rest for all three, since they’re all equally important in they’re planning on winning the series.
Comment by lookatthosetwins — October 8, 2009 @ 12:06 pm
Agreed. They should give the team the best chance of winning the series. Whether Baker pitches game 3 or 4, he’s only pitching one game, so it might as well be with full rest. No reason to pitch a guy on 4 days rest so you can pitch a guy on 7 the next day.
Comment by lookatthosetwins — October 8, 2009 @ 12:08 pm
I’m an idiot – my bad. Missed him in the list of good hitters, but saw Morales. Brain fart.