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  1. Given that the Orioles’ 2012 record is much better than their run differential would indicate and that there is more widespread recognition that that kind of overperformance is not very persistent from one year to the next than there probably was 15+ years ago, I wonder if the “year after” attendance boost based on the 2012 excitement might be smaller than if the same conditions had happened 15+ years ago.

    Hopefully, that wasn’t too convoluted.

    Comment by Detroit Michael — September 28, 2012 @ 12:38 pm

  2. Just throwing it out there, run differential and pythag win expectancy have kind of fallen out of favor. Teams change over the year, so while te O’s may regress, it shouldn’t be to the extent that their run diff ‘suggests’.

    Comment by LGT — September 28, 2012 @ 12:44 pm

  3. Yes, I agree. The fair weather fans will absolutely not buy tickets because the O’s win too many close games. Can’t agree more.

    Comment by Bill — September 28, 2012 @ 12:50 pm

  4. I think there’s some truth there. The portion of the population (ever increasing) which recognizes this success as perhaps less sustainable might be more cautious in their hopes for next year, which might affect their expectations. And that could have a bearing on ticket sales, however slightly.

    Comment by Tom — September 28, 2012 @ 2:56 pm

  5. The fall from 2M+ annually coincided pretty well with the Nationals moving in down south doesn’t it? Pretty crazy that it resulted in a drop of ~300k tickets/yr it looks like. Maybe SFG are justified in their worries about oakland trying to move to San Jose or whatever the latest plan was.

    Comment by futant462 — September 28, 2012 @ 3:22 pm

  6. Just more evidence that the Rays should have been contracted, IMHO.

    Comment by Mr Punch — September 28, 2012 @ 3:51 pm

  7. $25 per fan sounds kinda low. Besides tickets, fans buy food and beer, pay for parking etc. I think it would be reasonable to double that number.

    Comment by brendan — September 28, 2012 @ 6:23 pm

  8. Considering that number is based on the actual ticket sales ($42 million in revenue divided by 1.75 million tickets) the number is correct. He wasn’t trying to compare the team’s total revenue, just provide an example of how winning has increased revenue. Speculating or obsessing over parking and hot dog sales (which don’t make all that much – a huge amount goes to the operating vendor) is beyond the scope of the article.

    Comment by Ralph — September 28, 2012 @ 7:19 pm

  9. Oakland is actually closer to the SFG than San Jose is. SFG wants them out of San Jose because there is a Class A SFG minor league team in San Jose.

    Comment by CA Tom — September 28, 2012 @ 8:05 pm

  10. tickets for a potential wildcard game at tampa or oakland still a plenty!

    Comment by ucanthandlethetruth — September 28, 2012 @ 9:07 pm

  11. For the record, it’s a she.

    Comment by tbad — September 28, 2012 @ 10:10 pm

  12. The targeted promotion of discount tickets for weekday games in September has helped as well:

    Comment by Bill — September 28, 2012 @ 10:19 pm

  13. Are you sure it’s about the minor league team? Or about control of the TV market…

    Comment by A — September 29, 2012 @ 1:22 pm

  14. Or about the corporate dollars from the tech corridor south of SF and which team they align with.

    Comment by TerryMc — September 29, 2012 @ 10:14 pm

  15. The Bay Area is all one TV market, so media revenues won’t be affected by the A’s moving to San Jose.

    Silicon Valley has the Bay Area’s largest and richest corporate base. The Giants currently dominate it, as they do almost all parts of Northern California. They don’t want the A’s to make inroads there by rebranding themselves “San Jose.”

    DC and Baltimore are a very different situation – culturally and historically DC and Baltimore are separate markets. They are also separate media markets, even though MLB forcibly combined them via MASN. And of course the Nationals did not move into the Orioles’ official territory, and in fact the territories of those two teams don’t even touch each other.

    Comment by Candlestick — September 29, 2012 @ 10:25 pm

  16. More evidence of the declining quality of analytically provoking comments on Fangraphs.

    Comment by makeitRayn — October 1, 2012 @ 11:44 am

  17. @Tom — I think you missed the sarcasm in that post.

    Comment by JimNYC — October 1, 2012 @ 12:09 pm

  18. I was thinking the same thing about $25 per ticket being low on average. Obviously prices at Yankee Stadium are higher, but I’ve been able to get tickets at Yankee Stadium for less than $25 exactly once — went to a Yankees / Orioles night game at the end of August and got $22 tickets which were literally two rows from the top of the stadium. Normally I spend $150-$200 per ticket, and there are of course tickets that cost thousands of dollars.

    Comment by JimNYC — October 1, 2012 @ 12:14 pm

  19. I believe Tom was agreeing with my (Detroit Michael’s) original point, not Bill’s reply with the sarcasm.

    Comment by Detroit Michael — October 1, 2012 @ 12:35 pm

  20. Stubhub is your friend, I gave gotten $100 FV for ~$20 on M-Th games.

    Comment by RJ — October 1, 2012 @ 8:38 pm

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