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  1. Pretty easy. A-Rod has worst trade value of any player in baseball. So a fair swap would be trading him for next worse, Billy Hamilton.

    Win-win for both sides.

    Comment by Doug Dirt — October 19, 2012 @ 10:43 am

  2. This is getting old.

    Older than Brandon Weedon.

    Comment by Voxx — October 19, 2012 @ 10:51 am

  3. One thing that is missing from the Arod trade discussions is the fact that the $114 million owed to Arod is a sunk cost for the Yankess. Before even reading this analysis (which was great) I figured the Yankees would have to chip in at least $80 million of Arod’s contract to the team acquiring him (assuming no bad contracts come back to New York). People will be up in the arms about paying someone that much to play somewhere else, but the money was going to have to be paid anyway, and like you said, the team would save $34 million dollars in this example. Definitely not chump change. That is $5.7 per year the next five years to make up “x” wins the Yankees project he would have given them. Definitely doable.

    I also think dealing Arod greatly enhances the chances Cano is resigned by the team (its about 95% anyway) because in two years they would simply move him over to third, where is presumably diminished range, cannon arm, and power bat, would play well.

    Comment by Tyler — October 19, 2012 @ 10:55 am

  4. This guy might argue with your assertion about trade value….

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2154&position=1B

    Comment by Jeff B. — October 19, 2012 @ 11:03 am

  5. How does the luxury tax come in to play? If the Yankees pay part of his salary, does the entire salary still count against the new team’s tax? If so, I can’t see why any high payroll team (e.g., Phils) would take him on. Why would they spend so much of their “cap” on a fading player regardless of whether the actual dollars make sense?

    Comment by yo — October 19, 2012 @ 11:09 am

  6. (1) The acquiring team would only be responsible for what it is paying for luxury tax purposes, not the entire contract. It would be the same exact scenario more or less with the Yankees-Pirates trade of Burnett.

    (2) Even when considering the fact that the acquiring team would not take on Arod’s entire contract for luxury tax purposes, why wouldn’t a team spend money on a “fading” player (and he has been fading for a couple years now) so long as the team is obtaining surplus value from the deal, like Eno said? Who cares if he is fading?

    Comment by Tyler — October 19, 2012 @ 11:19 am

  7. if the Dodgers need to open an OF spot for Puig, maybe an Ethier swap plus $$$… or Hanley + more $$$…. I frankly don’t see it though.

    ARod for Teixeira… oh wait…

    Comment by Spike — October 19, 2012 @ 11:21 am

  8. It was inevitable that this contract was going to be a disaster. The Yankees happily agreed to approximately 100 million more than any other team would have considered paying for A-Rod, so it seems only right that they should choke on that portion of the deal.

    Comment by Monroe — October 19, 2012 @ 11:24 am

  9. Huh? The first paragraph mentions that his contract is a sunk cost.

    Not to mention that the idea that replacing A-Rod’s production with $5.7m per year is “definitely doable” is actually defintiely a big question mark. Sure, in years 3,4,5, he might be replacement level. But he also could be a 2-3 win player the next few seasons. Or maybe he just gets to the point where he retires after a few seasons because he is already very, very, very rich.

    Comment by Marty — October 19, 2012 @ 11:28 am

  10. this.

    Comment by Spike — October 19, 2012 @ 11:30 am

  11. Agreed – fading doesn’t matter if it is not the full luxury tax hit. Thanks.

    Comment by yo — October 19, 2012 @ 11:33 am

  12. Yes…..it is money the Yankees cannot get back at this moment, they are obligated to pay it. Contracts do not fit in perfectly with the definition of “sunk costs” I suppose but the point is that the Yankees are on the hook for that money. My point is is that people will harp on the fact that, if the Yanks deal Arod to whoever, the narrative will be “oh my god the Yankees are paying so much money for him to play somewhere else.” If they Yankees made such a deal they obviously thought it was in there best interest, and again, they were going to have to pay it anyway, and would actually save at least some money in any deal.

    Comment by Tyler — October 19, 2012 @ 11:38 am

  13. The salary is apportioned for luxury tax purposes between club dumping part of the salary and the club receiving the dump. The cash considerations in the trade are included in the dumping team’s payroll.

    See Article XXIII (C)(2)(b)(iii) of the CBA which can be viewed as a pdf on the Biz of Baseball website.

    Comment by Mike Green — October 19, 2012 @ 11:39 am

  14. Put labels on your plot axes!

    Comment by A Scientist — October 19, 2012 @ 11:39 am

  15. Maybe ARod would be like Ichiro and suddenly get motivated. I’m sure his pride is hurt over getting benched and he may be out to prove the Yankees wrong.

    Comment by Hurtlockertwo — October 19, 2012 @ 11:46 am

  16. I expected Albert Pujols when I saw “position=1B”

    Comment by BX — October 19, 2012 @ 12:00 pm

  17. If that money gets the Yankees under the luxury tax then maybe. Otherwise they’re probably going to be competitive next year. It very well could be the last year that Jeter, Petitte and Rivera play and I’m sure the Yankees want those three guys to go out on a solid note in the playoffs. If A-Rod is a three WAR player then he’ll help them compete and is better then any other cheap option they’ll find.

    If you’re the Yankees, why not simply let him play for that year and then see about trading him and eating 80 million beginning in 2014? Certainly some team would eat the remaining 10 million over four years to see if he has something left.

    With so many old players and so many questions in the near future, it makes sense to try and win now and not worry about later until later.

    Comment by Matt P — October 19, 2012 @ 12:02 pm

  18. Or at least move them into the hardware aisle.

    Comment by Royo — October 19, 2012 @ 12:10 pm

  19. I expected Todd Helton when I saw “position=1B”

    Comment by Alex — October 19, 2012 @ 12:30 pm

  20. Name a better 3rd base situation for the yankees (who are not cost concious) than a-rod and please don’t say Eric Chavez who has been totally unreliable for the last 7 years. Unless they somehow trade for someone, it will be a-rod at the hot corner in pinstripes.

    Comment by Joe — October 19, 2012 @ 12:44 pm

  21. I expected to see Billy Ham, but alas, I am an idiot.

    Comment by Doug Dirt — October 19, 2012 @ 1:10 pm

  22. Would moving off 3B make a difference? Perhaps he has more value to an acquiring team as a 1B/DH.

    Comment by Sean — October 19, 2012 @ 1:12 pm

  23. If the Yankees trade Rodriquez, but pay almost all of his salary, does that part of his salary that they are paying continue to count toward their luxury tax limit? Or does the entire amount count against the receiving team’s cap?

    Comment by Ben — October 19, 2012 @ 1:13 pm

  24. A lot of people felt the same way about Carl Crawford, but Boston was bailed out of that mess.

    Comment by Tom B — October 19, 2012 @ 1:17 pm

  25. Agreed. A lot of the comments and even some articles on the Phillies-centric blogs are about the Yankees trading ARod to the Phillies because the Phillies need a 3B and there are no good free agent options at the position. What I don’t understand is why anyone expects the Yankees to trade ARod for nothing, pay the great majority of what is due to him and then face the Phillies situation of needing a 3B when none are available.

    Comment by hk — October 19, 2012 @ 1:23 pm

  26. The only two guys with really bad contracts and no equity with the teams (Philly fans “like” Howard) are Lackey and Wells. The Yankees aren’t making a move with the Sox, so that leaves the Angels.

    Comment by Sean — October 19, 2012 @ 1:32 pm

  27. No, a lot of A-Rod’s current value is his defensive play at 3b, a better than league average offensive player who plays solid D at 3b is highly valuable. A better than league average offensive player at 1b and DH does not.

    Comment by Preston — October 19, 2012 @ 1:32 pm

  28. Every penny they pay him continues to count against the luxury tax.

    Comment by Preston — October 19, 2012 @ 1:33 pm

  29. Except that A-Rod has value and Wells shouldn’t have a major league job.

    Comment by Preston — October 19, 2012 @ 1:35 pm

  30. Well I think the Yankees could move Jeter to 3b and play Nunez at SS. Although who knows how Jeter would react to the move, and Nunez’s glove work is pretty inconsistent.

    Comment by Preston — October 19, 2012 @ 1:40 pm

  31. After seeing Boston get bailed out of three horrible contracts by the Dodgers, who knows how lucky the Yankees could get. I wouldn’t put it past a “win the offseason” team like the marlins, either LA team or the Phillies to eat most of this contract.

    Comment by Gerry — October 19, 2012 @ 1:40 pm

  32. So a team would “win the offseason” by taking on a guy who was just publicly shamed and embarrassed?

    Comment by nik — October 19, 2012 @ 1:42 pm

  33. Nobody has mentioned that the Yankees don’t like A-roid’s personality. While he is playing extremely poorly, he is unprofessional enough to try and pick up a bikini model (who was super cute btw). His subtraction is more than a baseball numbers issue to the Yanks and they are going to have to pay if they believe it is their best move.

    Comment by enhanced performance — October 19, 2012 @ 1:57 pm

  34. Carl Crawford isn’t 37 years old.

    Comment by GMH — October 19, 2012 @ 2:16 pm

  35. If Jeter would have been the one throwing balls at the stands to hot chicks, people would have reacted differently “Aww, Jeter is so cute”.

    Gimme a break.

    Comment by Berenjena — October 19, 2012 @ 2:21 pm

  36. And Lackey’s deal is terrible, but its not that terrible (assuming some of his troubles were attributable to injury). Lackey should be fully recovered from his injury and the Sox hold a ’15 option at the league minimum due to the injury, so he’s basically a 3/33. He could easily produce a WAR to justify those numbers over the next three years.

    Comment by Bob — October 19, 2012 @ 2:26 pm

  37. do you think the Dodgers are going to bail out other teams’ problems from now on? either that or you must believe in the ability of lightning to strike the same place twice…

    Comment by Spike — October 19, 2012 @ 2:37 pm

  38. yeah he’s been a pretty steady 3Bman. In fact, I find it hard to believe he won’t hit 20 HRs a year for the next several yrs. That and playing a good 3B has plenty of value.

    Comment by Spike — October 19, 2012 @ 2:38 pm

  39. Wells has only 2 yrs remaining. A-Clod 5. I don’t see the Yankees as that desperate to get rid of him that they’d do something dumb. He’ll still be a 2-3 win player for a while.

    Comment by Spike — October 19, 2012 @ 2:47 pm

  40. A-Rod also has his marketing agreement. He’s at 647 career HR now and is due payments of $6 million each for reaching 660, 714, 755, 762, 763 (if the record remains 762, but no one else could realistically get there before the contract ends).

    I think we have to assume that the first 2 are more or less a given. Not that he will definitely get 67 more HRs, but it’s hard to see how he provides decent value to the acquiring team over the next 5 years if he doesn’t.

    It’s hard to project if he’ll get 108, 115 and 116, but they are close enough together that we can lump them together (he could very well end up somewhere in the between after 5 years, but no projection can distinguish that precisely). But the acquiring team has to consider this a possibility. If he averages 23-24/year for the next 5 years the acquiring team is probably getting better performance than it expects, but will have it’s costs increase $6 million/year, but distributed unevenly. Does the team go under budget by those $6 million each year to prepare for the potential balloon payment or wait til later in the contract and prepare for it then? It’s not unreasonable to foresee a situation where whichever team A-Rod plays for will enter 2017 not knowing if it will owe him $20 or $38 million for the year, which could be very hard for most teams to budget for.

    Comment by Evan — October 19, 2012 @ 2:47 pm

  41. Reds should trade for him to replace Rolen just to ride the marketing buzz of his breaking the HR record in that bandbox. lol

    I’m a Braves fan so I’m not entirely sure what they have to offer, but I think it would make the team enough $$$ to offset the performance bonuses.

    (this post is only half joking)

    Comment by NickB — October 19, 2012 @ 3:27 pm

  42. Spike, it wasn’t isolated to Crawford though. When a team thinks they’re close to contending, sometimes they act foolishly. Who would’ve thought that Vernon Wells’ contract would’ve picked up?

    Comment by vivalajeter — October 19, 2012 @ 3:43 pm

  43. yeah, i wonder how often this happens to a typical team. I can’t imagine this is something that Arod did out of the blue, and no other ballplayers have done.

    Comment by vivalajeter — October 19, 2012 @ 3:49 pm

  44. Now I am sure that this will never happen but last year the Yankees traded an aging veteran for some salary relief to this small market team in Pittsburgh. If the yanks eat enough salary, I would think it would make sense for the Pirates to reunite Arod & AJ.

    Comment by Los — October 19, 2012 @ 3:57 pm

  45. The definition of sunk costs works perfectly fine with contracts. All guaranteed baseball contracts are essentially sunk costs. Sunk costs are simply money that has already been committed to something.
    The Yankees don’t have to preference being perfectly efficient when it comes to reducing costs though, like some teams constrained by their budget. If the Yankees place a higher preference on just winning and are willing to sacrifice some efficiency with regards to matching costs to value then predicting what they’ll do becomes a lot more difficult.

    Comment by Yeah — October 19, 2012 @ 3:58 pm

  46. and that Wells trade got Tony Reagins fired. Face it. There simply aren’t as many idiots running clubs as there used to be. Sure, if the Yankees eat $90M of what’s remaining on the deal they’d be able to move him, but it isn’t as if they have any replacement waiting in the wings anyway…

    Comment by Spike — October 19, 2012 @ 4:02 pm

  47. People forget that A-Rod was injured in both of the past two seasons. He hasn’t performed up to his abilities dealing with the after-effects of the broken hand. If healthy, I see a .280/.370/30HR/15SB season next year. Let’s also not forget the $30M marketing deal for reaching HR thresholds (at $6M per).

    Comment by SABRphreak — October 19, 2012 @ 4:03 pm

  48. …and why would he waive his no-trade???

    Comment by SABRphreak — October 19, 2012 @ 4:04 pm

  49. A-Rod won’t waive his NTC to go to Pittsburgh..

    Comment by Justin — October 19, 2012 @ 4:06 pm

  50. 1. this was an ridiculously outstanding piece. the only thing i wonder about is the milestone incentive issue… does anyone know anything about what the #s are for when he gets #715, #755 etc etc?

    2. was marcel the name of the monkey on friends?

    Comment by jcxy — October 19, 2012 @ 4:20 pm

  51. What about a john danks for arod swap with cash going to the white sox?

    Comment by Ned — October 19, 2012 @ 4:29 pm

  52. Nobody thought that was a 100 Million dollar overpay…maybe 35-40 million over 7 years

    Comment by Tomcat — October 19, 2012 @ 4:31 pm

  53. Alex would have to approve a new home. I’m sure the Marlins would want him as a draw. If the Yanks were willing to pay his salary could they pick the best prospects that the Marlins have year by year.
    The assumption that he will play five more years is, I think, mistaken. His body is breaking down and his ability to play 3rd for an NL team is two years max. With hip problems and leg issues his base is shaky and even in his younger days he had some trouble with getting jammed. Now he really has problems middle in against righties.
    There is no way he will show up to play if he can’t perform. He will retire and leave the money on the table.

    Comment by hornblower — October 19, 2012 @ 4:37 pm

  54. This isn’t the worst Idea I had a similar thought about the Rockies acquiring him to replace Helton

    Comment by Tomcat — October 19, 2012 @ 4:38 pm

  55. That would be one of the best 38yr old 3b seasons in history I do believe. Regardless, the yankees deserve most of the blame for the awful contract, I can’t think of too many 3b, even elite, who have produced past 38. Schmidt had an excellent age 37 season I do believe, then got injured in age 38 and was retired in age 39. G. Brett significantly tailed off after 36, though he still hit for avg. Off all the 3b I looked up, here are there triple slash lines for age 38, 39 and 40. Even if Arod is one of the best players of all time, and I feel he is, 30hr I believe would be an alltime high by alot for a 38yr old 3b. I fear DH is in his near future, with luck he can age like molitor or winfield, without it could get ugly quick.

    Brett
    255/327/402
    285/330/397
    266/312/434
    Schmidt
    249/337/405
    203/297/372
    C Jones
    265/381/426
    275/344/470
    287/377/455
    Nettles
    266/341/446
    228/329/413
    261/363/420

    On top of that no one knows exactly how he is in the clubhouse, but at best he’s probably neutral, at best. If I was an NL team no way I would even give that guy a 2yr contract, so you can forget the Phils or Marlins above, that leaves only AL teams who need a DH, that Arod would accept a trade too. Anaheim, Seattle…that’s about it. Throw out other al east teams, detroit, chicago don’t need him with dunn and v. martinez, maybe oakland but I bet arod would veto. Texas doesn’t need him, the rest he would veto.

    Suck it up and pray yankee fans that he can at least put up c. jones numbers for a year or two, then it’s DH for sure.

    Comment by Bill — October 19, 2012 @ 4:39 pm

  56. look above.

    Comment by Spike — October 19, 2012 @ 4:40 pm

  57. The Braves struggle to draw crowds as it is; I’m not sure that the addition of A-rod would be a significant draw, even as he approaches the HR record (if he managed to do so). Particularly given that one of the guys he’s running down, Hank Aaron, is still viewed by many (rightly or wrongly) as the ‘real’ HR champ or the ‘clean’ HR champ. I would imagine that sentiment really holds true for a lot of Braves fans.

    Comment by Jason B — October 19, 2012 @ 4:56 pm

  58. Can I take all of my money and bet the under on 15 SB? If anyone wants to wire me funds I’ll place your bets along with mine…

    Comment by Jason B — October 19, 2012 @ 4:57 pm

  59. “Look above” seems to indicate “there’s a monkey on the roof.”

    Comment by Jason B — October 19, 2012 @ 4:57 pm

  60. Yup. The contract guarantees $119M but could be worth $149M. Would the receiving team recoup that money as well as the Yankees might for those milestones? I think a team can only make money off 762 and 763. Nobody is going to buy extra tickets with the idea of “hey, let’s go see A-Rod pass Mays!”

    Comment by MikeS — October 19, 2012 @ 5:11 pm

  61. I don’t care who he gets traded to, I just hope he gets to play the Yankees in the post season next year and hits about 370/450/800. Then everybody in the five boroughs and beyond who ever uttered the words “True Yankee” will immediately die of apoplexy.

    Comment by MikeS — October 19, 2012 @ 5:15 pm

  62. Arod has been hurt the last 2 years.And he’ll probably be hurt again next year.And why not? He’ll be 39 years old with a lot of miles on that body. He is only human and he’s had a great career,he’s a lock for the HOF.
    Mr. Cashman has done a great job assemblying this team, but at an expense. He has signed several players to expensive long term contracts, Those contracts looked great at the time but those players are now getting inyo their mid to late 30′s with 4-5 years left on their contracts And tey’re getting hurt, and therefore much less productive.Arod is one. Tex is another. He’s been hurt this year and did not factor much in post-season. And he has regressed each of his last 3 years.Sabathia is another. He’s not 35 yet but is his body breaking down early because of all that excess weight he’s carrying? And Derek Jeter, the ageless one? A 38 year old shortstop with a broken ankle. Make that 39- that’s what he’ll be next year. What are the chances he’ll be even 75%,(but at 75% he’ll be as good as a lot of others at 100%.)? Or evn 50%?
    And the Yankees aren’t the only ones. The Red sox have their problems too. They got Ortiz with his achilles problem.That’s the same thing Garciaparra had and he was never the same. And he was younger, a lot younger. And Jon Lester- he’s regressed the last 2 years; will he ever get back to where he was before?
    Looks like in a couple of years the A.L.East is going to be upside down with the O’s and Rays leading the way and the Yanks and Red Sox fighting for the cellar. We can only wish ….

    Comment by freeagencysucks — October 19, 2012 @ 5:26 pm

  63. Because of the money the Rangers ate to trade Rodriguez to the Yankees ($67 million), if the Yankees did not extend A-Rod they would have received 44.4 WAR for $112M, or 2.52M per Win, which any GM would have taken in a heartbeat. They extended him 7 Yrs and $194M above his remaining contract. So far, they have received 6.4 WAR in the first 2 years of the extension portion. If the article is correct that they would eat $80+M, then they would have ultimately paid roughly $114M for 6.4 WAR, or 17.81M per Win. This would be a case of the same organization making an equally great/awful transaction with the same player.

    Comment by Nick Doyle — October 19, 2012 @ 6:10 pm

  64. I was saying that as a Braves fan I don’t know what the Reds would have to offer. I see no reason for the Braves to acquire A-rod.

    Comment by NickB — October 19, 2012 @ 6:17 pm

  65. Also curious about his milestone bonuses — up to $30 million could be added on if/when he surpasses milestones.

    He’ll provide more value than expected if he reaches some of them, but he could easily play poorly and still get half that.

    Comment by Travis L — October 19, 2012 @ 6:30 pm

  66. Nick, I don’t think it works out quite that way. When Arod opted out of his contract a few years ago, that was the end of his original deal. He was no longer signed through 2010. So they could’ve let him walk away at the time (and they would’ve had an incredible bargain for the first couple of years he was with the Yankees), but they couldn’t just keep him around through 2010 on his original deal.

    As it turns out, they really got hosed with him opting out. Not only did they give him an absurd new 10-year deal, but they let Texas off the hook for the rest of his original contract since Texas no longer had to pay the $6-7MM/year that they agreed to.

    To my original point, you’d have to look at how much WAR he accumulated since he signed the latest deal with the Yankees; you can’t just look at how he’s done since 2010, since they didn’t have the option to keep him around until 2010.

    Comment by vivalajeter — October 19, 2012 @ 6:35 pm

  67. But people went crazy about Bonds.

    Comment by Alvaro — October 19, 2012 @ 6:57 pm

  68. Lesson learned. Never give a 32 year old who we all knew was on the juice 275M for 10 years. Really 275 MILLION DOLLARS. I could split that into 4 and approx 68M dollars and get 4 good players instead of one. 4 players all hit 10-25HR and bat from 280-320 perfect.

    Comment by Andrew — October 19, 2012 @ 11:49 pm

  69. The one factor not considered – his final 3 years are at 22, 21,21 mil, but his luxury tax # will be 27.5mil those years (AAV).

    If the Yankees cut him, the take the full luxury tax hit. If they trade him and pay nearly every penny, there is a substantial luxury tax gain for them. Say they trade him and pay 20mil per – that is the # used for the luxury calculation (saving 7.5mil). If the acquiring team is not near the luxury tax threshold they only will care about what they are paying him: 1-2 mil (as opposed to the 7.5 mil on the luxury tax calculation).

    So basically there is a little bit of an asymmetric value situation – assuming the Yankees stay near the luxury tax threshold in the future and are trading him to a team not near it.

    At some point if he’s so unproductive that the Yankees want to cut him they might consider picking up everything but the league min and package a mid level prospect so an acquiring team can then cut him. The Yankees would gain 7.5mil of “cap” space and the inquiring team would need to get a prospect at least worth the 0.5mil min (X however many years) or they could send back a contract they don’t want that is more than that.

    Comment by Ton — October 20, 2012 @ 2:37 am

  70. inquiring = acquiring (damn autocorrect!)

    Comment by Ton — October 20, 2012 @ 2:39 am

  71. Would it really be that much of a surprise if he has the best season a 38 year old third basemen has ever had?

    He was the best shortstop on the planet through his 20s and he should go down as one of the best players of this generation, putting up elite numbers wouldn’t be new to him.

    I hope this doesn’t spark a steroid debate

    Comment by jim08 — October 20, 2012 @ 3:46 am

  72. 1. $6 million per milestone

    2. Hell yeah Marcel was the name of Ross’ monkey. He was awesome.

    Comment by jim08 — October 20, 2012 @ 3:48 am

  73. As a Sox fan I don’t mind Lackey’s contract that much after finding out he was pitching with a shredded elbow last year and skipping his bullpen sessions in between starts because of it. He’s owed $31M for the next 3 seasons, doesn’t bother me.

    Comment by jim08 — October 20, 2012 @ 3:50 am

  74. He was probably the best player in baseball + it was a Steinbrenner deal (a dollar did not have the same value to Steinbrenner that it did to another team) + Cashman had no idea that a few years down the line his boss was going to drop the “we want to get under the luxury tax threshold” bombshell.

    Yes, its an awful contract but I actually have sympathy for GMs that have to negotiate with Scott Boras. That guy is inevitably going to be the first agent to be inducted into Cooperstown.

    Comment by jim08 — October 20, 2012 @ 3:56 am

  75. wow, that’s disgusting. I can’t believe he has those milestone bonuses. Scott Boras is despicable. (And the Yankees deserve every mediocre moment A-Rod gonna give them for the next five years.)

    Comment by Brandon — October 20, 2012 @ 11:02 am

  76. @Yeah: A sunk cost can’t be recovered. You can trade a player and have his contract assumed by the other team, thereby recovering at least a portion of the money you originally committed.

    Comment by Bigmouth — October 20, 2012 @ 12:02 pm

  77. Nope, some of a sunk cost can generally be recovered.
    For example if you buy a factory the price of the factory is a sunk cost, but you can still sell the factory yourself later.
    From wikipedia, “… the sunk cost is not a precise quantity, but an economic term for a sum paid, in the past, which is no longer relevant to decisions about the future…”
    With a trade of A-rod you’re probably not getting much baseball talent back, you’re basically selling his contract.

    Comment by Yeah — October 20, 2012 @ 1:13 pm

  78. Also, he has brought in a lot of money. Its both a business as its a sport.

    Comment by Alvaro — October 20, 2012 @ 1:34 pm

  79. Yankees eat it, trade him to Minny for Mauer and his big contract.

    Comment by Alvaro — October 20, 2012 @ 1:36 pm

  80. @Yeah: From wikipedia:

    “In economics and business decision-making, sunk costs are retrospective (past) costs that have already been incurred and cannot be recovered.”

    Comment by Bigmouth — October 20, 2012 @ 1:41 pm

  81. This is a great point. I suppose it means that sending $100 to save $20 is a possibility, because it would actually be saving more on the lux tax bill. I guess I would shift my trade numbers a little. I’m not sure so much as you have. They only spent 40% on overage last year, $13.9 million… and they still have to fill a full team. I’m not sure exactly how to allocate the lux tax savings in such a deal without full knowledge of their roster and lux tax situation next year. But it deserves thought, thanks for pointing it out.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — October 20, 2012 @ 1:43 pm

  82. Keep arod

    Comment by Dawoo — October 20, 2012 @ 1:55 pm

  83. Yes, the COSTS can not be recovered. The costs are only what you have initially paid. If you sell an item you are not recovering the costs you paid for it, that money is already gone. However, you are mitigating the costs somewhat by getting money through a separate transaction.
    Technically, you’re not recovering costs because that has already been paid out, but it is essentially the same thing. So that’s really just semantics.

    Comment by yeah — October 20, 2012 @ 1:56 pm

  84. Rodriguez has said that he won’t waive his NTC period. If he’s telling the truth, this entire discussion is moot.

    Comment by Baltar — October 20, 2012 @ 3:13 pm

  85. aramis ramirez was given a 3 year deal by an NL team. i fail to see a world in which a-rod couldn’t get a better deal in free agency, even at this point, than aramis ramirez

    Comment by jim — October 20, 2012 @ 3:24 pm

  86. The 20mil was arbitrary just to put #’s so folks could understand my point – I agree that might be too far.

    My main point is even if he is not worthy of a roster spot, at some point it makes sense for the Yankees to eat a lot more than a normal WAR/$ type evaluation. And a smart small-mid market team might be able to make a few mil or get a fringe prospect and then just cut ARod post trade.

    At a 189mil threshold if the Yankees continue to operate at 200-210mil, even at a 50% tax rate (it jumps to 50% in the new CBA) is “only” ~5-10mi/yrl in tax; but if ARod puts him under it that can almost be factored in the trade eval (and also the ability to reset the rate back down to 17% the next time they go over).

    It’s also not just the luxury tax bill – there are provisions in the new CBA for not getting back local revenue sharing (not sure on the terms). This is what I believe is truly driving the Yankees to get under the threshold as speculative #’s I have seen put it at 40-100mil if the Yankees are under 189mil in 2014 and 15.

    If the Yankees do eat 20mil/yr they are “saving” the direct salary costs (19mil?) and the missed tax on 7.5 mil/yr (27.5-20) which at a 50% rate would be an additional 3.75mil/yr (~18mil). Of course this has a crude assumption that they will otherwise be operating over the threshold all those years with ARod.

    Comment by Ton — October 20, 2012 @ 7:05 pm

  87. Motodating is dating and friendship site designed specifically for bikers. If you’re a biker babe or a biker boy and if you’re looking for love online then register here today.

    Comment by kiskis — October 20, 2012 @ 9:56 pm

  88. Reasonable bad contract swap (assuming that one believes that Vernon Wells has at least nominal value):

    Rodriguez ($120m & 5 years) + $40M
    for
    Callaspo (arb eligible – appx $4m) + Wells ($42M & 2 years)

    Angels incur approximately $34M in additional contract costs (net of $80M remaining on his contract offset by $42M for Wells and $4M for Callaspo).

    This would give the Yankees a solution for 3rd base this season as Callaspo is perfectly serviceable at a reasonable cost. They can spend 2013 figuring out if they want to retain Callaspo, make a trade for a better 3rd baseman or see what the 2014 FA class brings.

    Meanwhile the Angels get a power bat. They get a big (if not hated) name. They roll the dice on a guy who has a ton of talent without taking a tremendous amount of risk (5 years is a lot but the $34M isn’t a big deal).

    Comment by BJsWorld — October 21, 2012 @ 12:19 am

  89. And the Twins would make that deal because……? Only way they trade Mauer is for prospects, and at 38, I think A-Rod is a little past the “prospect” stage.

    Comment by Ericpalmer — October 21, 2012 @ 2:51 am

  90. Please, God, let the Yankees keep ARod so they all sink again next year.

    Comment by Barbara — October 21, 2012 @ 9:04 am

  91. It’s interesting you have to defend the notion that A-Rod is still a 3 WAR player. Even this most reason year, he registered 2.2 WAR, and that’s with missing over six weeks with a broken hand, and then not hitting well on his return for the final month. He was well on pace for another 3.5+ WAR season prior to the injury.

    Lost in the conversation is the broken hand, a type of injury that is well-documented in reducing a player’s ability to drive the ball initially. We saw that from A-Rod in September forward. It could be another six months before full strength returns.

    I expect teams will contact the Yankees on A-Rod hoping to get the Yankees to pay upwards of $100M. And say what you want about him, A-Rod is still a draw. He will create interest, helping the acquiring team to pay what little they hope they’re paying. Yet is won’t happen. The Yankees won’t be giving up a 3+ WAR player and paying most of his salary just for the heck of it.

    Comment by Rob — October 21, 2012 @ 3:16 pm

  92. Sit him on the bench for most of April and May and let’s see how he reacts.

    Comment by David33957 — October 21, 2012 @ 5:13 pm

  93. Aramis Ramirez is 3 years younger than ARod and has been a significantly better and healthier player over the past two years. I’d re-evaluate my world view if I were you.

    Comment by Flharfh — October 21, 2012 @ 6:06 pm

  94. Here is a crazyyyy trade proposal.

    A-Rod and 65 million of his contract
    Cano
    Nova
    Nunez

    to the Marlins for

    Reyes and his remaining 90+mill (rumor mill is Marlins would like dump contract)
    Josh Johnson (in last year of contract)
    Either two top prospects or Mike Stanton whichever gets deal done

    Put Reyes at short.
    jete’s at third.
    Adams and Cojo at second platoon at second.

    Arod and Marlins Owner Loria are very close so this is feasible as Marlins would go for it next year and pack stadium with Arod and have money to resign Cano.

    Thoughts Bitches?

    Comment by BillyBall — October 21, 2012 @ 7:06 pm

  95. Don’t see the Yankees trading Cano. And highly, highly doubt the Yankees would want prospects thrown in a trade. Since when do the Yankees want prospects in return?

    Comment by Eric — October 21, 2012 @ 11:42 pm

  96. Why not just a simple trade of ARod for Howard, maybe some cash or minor leaguers exchanged? Both have exhausted their stays with the current club.

    Comment by Richard — October 22, 2012 @ 10:33 am

  97. Jeter off SS? Yea, from a “hey, let’s do something that makes sense” standpoint it’s a good idea. However, from a “Derek Jeter is the toughest player ever and is the captain, he’s our SS” perspective, they won’t do it.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — October 22, 2012 @ 2:35 pm

  98. The Braves draw 30K a game. It’s not as bad as it looks on TV, it’s that Turner Field is huge. Still, I doubt A-Rod generates that much interest. Not to mention possibly alienating even more fans. The Braves seem to pride themselves on having ‘good guy’ players. You always hear about how they “do things the right way” and “have a business-like attitude”.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — October 22, 2012 @ 2:46 pm

  99. I was appealing to Pohlad’s cheapness, obviously this favors the yankees… but then I remembered he passed away years ago.

    Comment by Alvaro — October 22, 2012 @ 4:44 pm

  100. Thanks for the clarification. As a Twins fan, when I first heard about him maybe being traded, I thought about a blockbuster that might work but not if the Yankees still get hit on the luxury tax. Was contemplating a Mauer for A-Rod with the Yankees throwing in 100+. It would get the Yankees good value back while getting MN out from under a contract that is going to make it difficult to rebuild and a player that still has a productive year or two.

    Comment by Tom — October 22, 2012 @ 8:35 pm

  101. And as bad as Rodriguez has looked in the playoffs, there are reasons to think this particular nadir is temporary.

    Comment by Daavois Marketing And Design — October 22, 2012 @ 10:53 pm

  102. Send A-Rod back to the Mariners…they suck and they can use another sucky player!

    Mariner’s Fan!!

    Comment by Daniel Allen — October 23, 2012 @ 12:36 am

  103. with all the hand wringing over A-Rod’s contract I’m wondering why people are not equally worried about Mark Teixeira’s remaining contract which is similar.

    Comment by Doug B — October 23, 2012 @ 1:50 pm

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