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  1. Hudson has said a couple times that he’d prefer to stay in Atlanta, and that he’d resign for a discount if they’d let him. I think Rosenthal is misinterpreting his information.

    Comment by gej — October 13, 2009 @ 5:35 pm

  2. Everything I’ve read before Ken Rosenthals latest had led me to believe the Braves weren’t going to pick up his option, which made sense considering he just had Tommy John surgery.

    It’s not that i think he has had some complications after surgery. It’s simply a matter of ability, and making 12 million in the current market. Even though he only had 7 starts as you mentioned, he had a ton of baserunners. It may be a question of rust and lack of control. He had a 1.46Whip, his highest total of his entire career. His second highest was in 2006 when he had a 1.44Whip to go with a 4.86ERA. A lot of lucky dp’s this year.

    But seriously you’d give Hudson more than 12 million per year…..No way. I think if you’re him, the best you could hope for is 3 yrs 27 million.

    Comment by Tomas — October 13, 2009 @ 6:03 pm

  3. Of course he’s not going to get $12M/yr. on the market, but in terms of absolute dollars if he could even get $9M/yr. for 3 years (total $27M) that would still be better for him longterm. After next year, Hudson will be 35. He’d be lucky to get a one year contract with an option at that point. This is his last chance at a 3 or 4 year guaranteed contract.

    Comment by Jason — October 13, 2009 @ 6:22 pm

  4. There’s just no reason to use WHIP to evaluate a pitcher anymore.

    Comment by Dave Cameron — October 13, 2009 @ 7:11 pm

  5. While it is a really small sample size, in 42 1/3 Innings this year, Hudson has a 3.88 FIP and a 3.56 xFIP. In limited innings, Hudson has been as good as he ever was.

    Comment by YC — October 13, 2009 @ 7:22 pm

  6. You also need to take into account that the Braves have got 6 starters currently in Vazquez, Lowe, Jurrjens, Hanson, Kawakami and Hudson. If they keep Hudson around then they’ve either gotta trade one or stick Kawakami in the pen

    Comment by Ewan — October 13, 2009 @ 7:42 pm

  7. I think the Braves would have to seriously lowball Hudson for him to move out.

    I think he’ll re-sign 2/20 with some option for the 3rd year. Just a guess, though.

    Comment by John C — October 13, 2009 @ 7:45 pm

  8. really? There is never a situation to use WHIP?

    Why throw away a tool just cause you may only use it on very few occasions?

    Comment by bobo — October 13, 2009 @ 10:52 pm

  9. Well sure… when constructing a fantasy baseball roster.

    But no, there’s no reason to use it when we can see, without looking very hard at all, that absolutely anything he can control is right in line with his career rates. K/9, BB/9, GB/FB, all normal for him. Even digging deeper and looking at his plate discipline numbers shows consistency with previous seasons. What did change, however, was a large spike in BABip and a smaller spike in HR/FB, both of which would increase his WHIP but neither of which were his fault.

    Comment by Kevin S. — October 13, 2009 @ 11:02 pm

  10. You should never use WHIP. Not very few occasions. No occasions. It’s useless.

    Comment by Dave Cameron — October 13, 2009 @ 11:41 pm

  11. i think “useless” is a little strong, but i understand where you are going. it treats a single the same as a HR, so yeah, it has very LIMITED use.

    but as a quick and dirty metric, it has some use.

    any pitcher with a WHIP close to 1 is going to be pretty good. in that respect, it’s a handy little tool, you just have to know, understand, and account for the limitations.

    yes, i know, if you wanted “quick and dirty” you probably wouldn’t come to Fangraphs….

    Comment by Steve — October 14, 2009 @ 8:50 am

  12. I would assume he will likely want to stay in the NL unless the $$ is too great somewhere else.

    Comment by Matt B. — October 14, 2009 @ 8:52 am

  13. I think it seems pretty clear that he’ll opt out of the deal in search of a longer term deal (that is if he does the rational economic decision, not accounting for emotions or other factors). Does anyone think that the Mets might be a reasonable fit, as a Met fan I hope so, we could sure use him.

    Comment by David Foy — October 14, 2009 @ 9:20 am

  14. Or the pitcher is just getting lucky on BABIP. WHIP really is useless.

    Comment by MPC — October 14, 2009 @ 9:20 am

  15. No, OPS+ is a quick-and-dirty stat. WHIP is far too dependent on random variation to be worth anything.

    Comment by Kevin S. — October 14, 2009 @ 9:57 am

  16. Yeah, a TJ pitcher is probably a perfect fit for the Mets.

    Comment by Matt B. — October 14, 2009 @ 11:36 am

  17. Hudson has since refuted the story, saying he will only opt out if the Braves and his agent can’t get close on a contract extension that both sides are working on right now. He says he’ll definitely take a hometown discount to stay, but he wants the extra years.

    Comment by Temo — October 14, 2009 @ 12:41 pm

  18. There is one, and only one, reason to pay attention to WHIP: you’re playing fantasy in a league that uses it as a stat. In that respect it’s in the same category as charisma, dexterity, and hit points. It may help you evaluate how your level 10 Mage throw fireballs at orcs. It isn’t going to help you in the real world. And bringing it up may just get you laughed at.

    Comment by joser — October 14, 2009 @ 1:06 pm

  19. Hudson would make sense for the Nationals if he does opt out. They have cash to spend and a stated intention to add to their rotation. Rizzo has shown a preference for sinker/groundball ptuchers.

    Comment by Neil — October 14, 2009 @ 2:40 pm

  20. I can only think of one reason to quote WHIP and that is when you are explaining baseball to someone that doesn’t want to learn the more complicated statistics. For example, you could explain to one of your senior management baseball advertysing types (is this even a type?) how a pitcher could be lucky. Pitcher 1 has a low ERA but a very high WHIP. Pitcher 2 could have equally low ERA but a low WHIP.

    Senior manager business type: “FPIT QUAR WAR ERA+ what are you talking about????…Oh, WHIP, yes I play fantasy baseball, I see what you mean, too many baserunners but got lucky and didn’t give up more earned runs…Why do you stat heads bother with all those other synonyms when you can just use WHIP???”

    Stathead “A sir, they are actually acronyms”

    Senior manager business type: “What did you call me?”

    Comment by rolo — October 14, 2009 @ 3:41 pm

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