FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Melky Cabrera is on this list twice.

    Comment by Kevin B — October 22, 2012 @ 10:37 am

  2. Melky- no idea really, I said 1/13. I doubt he would want to sign a long-term deal, as it would be too team friendly. Therefore he is looking at 1 year and whatever salary.
    Gomes- 1/5
    Hunter- 2/15
    Ross- 3/22
    Ichiro- 1/3
    Swisher- 6/96

    Comment by RudolfSchmidt — October 22, 2012 @ 11:28 am

  3. 6 yr/$96M for Swisher after that playoff performance? I know it’s a slack FA class, but I just don’t see $16M for him now. I’ve never thought he was worth that though, so after the playoffs, I’m certainly not on that bandwagon. I think he gets closer to $12M per for 4 or 5 years. I also think Ichiro will get more than $3 to resign with the Yankees. If he puts up the same batting line next season as he did post-trade this season, he is easily going to get double that.

    Comment by Pinstripe Wizard — October 22, 2012 @ 11:35 am

  4. My gut says someone gives Melky a 3 year deal ($30M over 3)
    Also I agree with Pinstripe on Swisher, closer to 3 years and $30M
    Ichiro signs with someone for a year and an option
    Gomes resigns with Oakland for $2M and a year.
    Cant see Cody Ross getting a 3 year deal with his on-base skills.

    Comment by Darren — October 22, 2012 @ 11:55 am

  5. I’m thinking swisher will get $15 million a year. I put him for four years, but I could see five or six if a bidding war starts. I don’t think I’d want to go over four for him though.

    Comment by JayT — October 22, 2012 @ 1:27 pm

  6. I think ichiro actually gets more than one year. I could see a 2 year deal with an option year for #3….

    i put swisher down for 4/12.

    Comment by attgig — October 22, 2012 @ 5:16 pm

  7. Ichiro: 3 years/7 million per is my guess. Someone overpays a little to try and bring in some star power with decent skills and hopes for a bit of a rebound. Ichiro retires when the deal ends.

    Gomes: Well, Gomes has been improving his BB% this past two years, but he has signifcant splits. But he’s still been hitting some HRs well and can play well enough he can slot in against righties if needed. He’s also younger than I thought, 31. I think he gets something like 3 years/8-9 million per with about 2-3 mil in incentives. I think part of it is teams will buy into the improved average and want a leftie hitter. I coudl see someone overpaying here.

    Torii Hunter: He’s 37, so I think teams will hesitate on signing him long term, and I don’t recall him having a good year this year, but I’ll be honest and say I didn’t pay barely any attention to his year. His previous time and Gold Gloves and such let him get a 1 year/10 mil deal, but with a comfortable team option if he does great. I also guessed 6th best WAR, by the way: Turns out I was way off and he has his best year this year! He’ll almost certainly be overvalued and get more than I said due to that.

    Melky Cabrera: He’s not going to get barely anything. He was nothing before ‘roids, he presents a possible PR hazard and he’s risky due to the question of if he will be good without ‘roids or return to the terrible Melky of yesteryear. He gets 1 year/9 million from a team that is bad enough to take the risk, possibly with a team option. I predict he lost about 6 mil in 2013 from that.

    Ross: He’s the same age as Gomes, but doing much better. His good ending to 2011 with the Giants and following it with a “breakout” year this year will inflate his value, even if K% is the highest ever and his BB% is going back down. I predict a 4 year/12 million per contract.

    Swisher: He’s gonna get a good deal. The playoff stuff slightly depresses it, but he’s probably the best non-Hamilton option, without the baggage Hamilton has. I think teams compete and drive up the price on him, it ends up at 5 years at 15 mil per.

    (Warning: I have no idea how market values are!)

    Also is there any way to see what other people said for their answers?

    Comment by Ruki Motomiya — October 22, 2012 @ 7:45 pm

  8. Hunter picked a pretty good year to have an extreme outlying high BABIP and what appears to be outlying elevated defensive metric. I would assume that most GM’s would see the sharp declines in ISO and BB% and increased K% and see through his season. But it only takes one…

    Comment by Vegemitch — October 22, 2012 @ 9:12 pm

  9. 22 million for Ross? I don’t see how that’s possible.

    Comment by Bip — October 22, 2012 @ 11:29 pm

  10. I put 5/70 for Melky. It’s way more than everyone else is saying, but I think someone will give him an amount that makes us wonder whether they mistakenly thought he has always been 2011-2012 Melky. Also, the winner’s curse will probably counteract much of the damage that could have been done by his suspension.

    Comment by Bip — October 22, 2012 @ 11:31 pm

  11. In regards to “how many millions of dollars the PED suspension will cost Melky in 2013″ are we saying on a per year basis or total contract length? I felt that the maximum value of $20 million was not high enough if we were talking the entrie length of the contract, so I just answered on a per year basis.

    Comment by Matty Brown — October 26, 2012 @ 10:38 am

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