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  1. The other crazy thing is, looking at Pitch F/X, only his slider and changeup have above-average H/V movement in both 2008 and 2009. These pitches, however, only account for 18.9% and 21.7% of pitches thrown respectively. So it really doesn’t seem, unless these are consistently his “out” pitches, that his movement is otherworldly either.

    Comment by Big Oil — October 15, 2009 @ 10:26 am

  2. I’d clarify this is only for vertical movement and not horizontal movement.

    Comment by Big Oil — October 15, 2009 @ 10:28 am

  3. I would suggest his FB and LD data is a sample size to small based on the high groundball rate. Then looking at his infield defense he had an amazing season from Zimmerman at third base and if he was able to avoid Dunn at first the infield defense would have been neutral or even above neutral.

    Comment by Troy Patterson — October 15, 2009 @ 11:28 am

  4. It looks like he’s a classic lefty in the Tommy John family, controls the running game very well, gets the double play and doesn’t walk many. If he strikes out 3.9/9 IP going forward, I doubt that he will be able to sustain it, but if he can strike out 4.5-5, he may be able to. He’s young, so the possibility remains that he will get it up over 5 and aim for Glavine, behind Strasburg’s Ryan.

    I don’t know the mechanics of tRA, but I doubt that the combination of controlling the running game and getting ground balls is adequately accounted for.

    Comment by Mike Green — October 15, 2009 @ 11:55 am

  5. Groundballs are adequately accounted for in tRA. Controlling the running game is not, although I doubt that has as much of an impact as you think. The real reason he’s overperforming is what was outlined in this post: his BABIP is incredibly low. We’ll see if this continues in 2010.

    Comment by lookatthosetwins — October 16, 2009 @ 5:33 am

  6. Lockdown Lannan is a huge building block for our team going forward, a 1-2 punch of Strasburgh and Lannan and a closer in Storen is huge!!

    Hopefully Baby Zimmermann comes back and Ross full of Rage can continue his improvement. I am hoping for Ian Desmond to take over at SS so we can move Cristian Guzman to 2ND to shore up the infield and provide good offense. Career years from Flores and Dukes will also help get the Nats playing relevant baseball in September/October.

    Comment by Natty Nation — October 16, 2009 @ 11:14 am

  7. For his career, the contact rate on Lannan’s pitches outside the strike zone is almost 10% higher than league average although the swing rate is just about average. One might hypothesize that the BABIP on contact on pitches outside the strike zone is significantly lower than BABIP on contact on pitches in the strike zone.

    Comment by Mike Green — October 16, 2009 @ 12:00 pm

  8. Dave Allen has the answer to that question:

    http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/07/can_pitchers_co.php

    Now if you have a map of where Lannan’s O-contact pitches were, you could get an answer about how important that factor was. If he’s getting a lot of contact on pitches inside, that would explain it. Changeup outside, sinking fastball in on the fists to the RHH. When you’re throwing 90, that works.

    Comment by Mike Green — October 16, 2009 @ 3:44 pm

  9. Do not forget JMax. Sample size is small, but he looks legit with both the bat and glove. Check out his stats on this site. Amazing.

    Comment by Nats Fan — October 16, 2009 @ 4:58 pm

  10. Lannan can repeat the weak hitting of other players pretty consistently. I have watched almost every start he has ever made and it is almost comical how pathetic he can make some of the games top power hitters look on balls they put in play. Its repeatable for sure! His weakness are speedy guys who get infield hits off his stuff constantly. He struggles with the light hitters and dominates the homer run hitters from my observation.

    Comment by Nats Fan — October 16, 2009 @ 5:02 pm

  11. “Groundballs are adequately accounted for in tRA.” Their run value is averaged across all MLB plays, like other events, right? If Lannan gets more grounders in double play situations than the average pitcher, that’s not going to be accounted for in tRA.

    Comment by puck — October 17, 2009 @ 3:07 am

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