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  1. why is his UZR so low? it’s not like he’s slow out there. and watching lots of yankee games last year, very rarely did i say “why didn’t you get taht bobby?”…

    Comment by Tom B — October 16, 2009 @ 12:07 pm

  2. Great work Dave, as per usual.

    Comment by Logan — October 16, 2009 @ 12:18 pm

  3. Abreu is apparently looking for a better offer. Seems kind of odd on his part considering they signed him for 5 million base this year. Does he really think someone is going to double that for even one year let alone two? I guess he enjoyed waiting himself into monetary loss last season and decided to try it again.

    Comment by walkoffblast — October 16, 2009 @ 12:27 pm

  4. HE has very limited range, you probably don’t say “why didn’t you get that Bobby” because he doesn’t even come close to a batted ball that would be considered a “rangy play” so you just assume he had no chance. He is a safe out there, very safe.

    Comment by Matt B. — October 16, 2009 @ 12:44 pm

  5. He was underpaid this year. If he has an offer on the table that is acceptable, it makes perfect sense for him to check and see if anybody else wants to pay more. Considering he had a good year, it seems plausible that somebody would pay more (for instance, the Giants like to overpay older hitters). I don’t remember him having an offer last year that was significantly better that he “waited into monetary loss”.

    Comment by Gabriel — October 16, 2009 @ 1:12 pm

  6. how can you say abreu is an average player? with his defense sure, but you said that he’s equally effective regardless of which position he plays (DH vs. RF). as a DH, he has to be considered a great asset to the team and certainly above average.

    Comment by Eric — October 16, 2009 @ 1:20 pm

  7. No, sorry, that’s not how it works.

    If you move him to DH, you cancel out the negative effects of his fielding, but the expected level of offense is higher as well due to the opportunity cost.

    Abreu is an average player, worth about +2 wins over a full season, whether he plays OF or DH. If his fielding deteriorates any further, he’ll be below average as an OF.

    Comment by Dave Cameron — October 16, 2009 @ 2:20 pm

  8. If he plays the field, then his defensive liabilities bring him down to “average.” If he DHs, then the positional adjustment does.

    Remember that “average” in this context is not the colloquial sense of “Not bad, but not good.” An MLB-average player is a good player compared to the total replacement pool.

    Comment by joser — October 16, 2009 @ 2:43 pm

  9. Seriously?! LOL. I said that constantly. He was absolutely terrible last year.

    Comment by Rob in CT — October 16, 2009 @ 2:55 pm

  10. You did a nice job with this article. I enjoyed reading it and I learned so much.

    Comment by dorsal — October 16, 2009 @ 5:16 pm

  11. Hey Dave. Shouldn’t Abreu get closer to $9-10 milion per? He’s closer to a 3 WAR player than he is a 2 WAR player, right (even if he regresses a bit)? Obviously he won’t get $12 million per year, but a $18-20 million deal over a 2-year period doesn’t seem far fetched.

    Comment by iYankees — October 16, 2009 @ 5:25 pm

  12. No, he’s pretty much a +2 win guy. A ~.360 wOBA and -15 defense in the outfield is pretty much the definition of a league average player.

    $9 or $10 million a year for two years wouldn’t be a disaster, but if that’s what he wants, teams should pass. The market is full of DH types who will sign for way less.

    Comment by Dave Cameron — October 16, 2009 @ 6:02 pm

  13. I gotcha. Thanks, Dave. Keep up the good work.

    Comment by iYankees — October 16, 2009 @ 6:21 pm

  14. Yes, he was underpaid but his contract was a product of the market and that market has not changed much if at all.

    Comment by walkoffblast — October 16, 2009 @ 10:45 pm

  15. None of this statistical analysis considers the significant impact Abreu had on almost every hitter in the lineup. The team OBP rising from .330 to .350 was a major peripheral benefit of bringing Abreu on board. Check the career numbers of guys like Figgins and Hunter, along with younger guys such as Aybar and Morales. They all gave Abreu much of the credit for their improved discipline. You can’t quantify leadership like that.

    Comment by Lyle Spencer — October 17, 2009 @ 2:25 pm

  16. Did any of your non-statistical analysis recognize that there was nothing special about Hunter’s discipline? Or that Figgins has been a steady improver in that department long before Abreu joined them? Or that this was Morales’ first full season and you have absolutely no idea what he would have done had Abreu not been there? Or that Aybar’s walk rate remained unchanged?

    I’ll take the statistical analysis over subjective hyperbole eight days a week.

    Comment by Not David — October 17, 2009 @ 10:20 pm

  17. Or that the difference in OBP between 2008 and 2009 was due almost entirely to the team’s batting average? (.268 vs. .285)

    Comment by Not David — October 17, 2009 @ 10:23 pm

  18. $5

    Comment by TomG — October 17, 2009 @ 10:29 pm

  19. $3.50

    Comment by Not David — October 17, 2009 @ 10:33 pm

  20. Well, the market for him may have changed some, since there seem to be more teams in the mix this offseason for good offensive corner OF/DHs than there were last offseason, and the pitching free agent market doesn’t seem to have as much worth spending your money on.

    Comment by Judy — October 18, 2009 @ 10:23 am

  21. You can’t quantify leadership like that.

    Of course you most certainly can. In fact…

    The team OBP rising from .330 to .350

    … you seem to think you just did.

    Of course, it’s nowhere near as simple or direct as you think it is, and a couple of other folks have already pointed that out. But to the extent his “leadership” actually mattered, it will be evident in other stats; and if it isn’t, well, then meh.

    Comment by joser — October 18, 2009 @ 11:26 am

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