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  1. Felix good, Price better, Verlander best.

    Comment by Slats — November 14, 2012 @ 4:41 pm

  2. Why wasn’t this article posted weeks ago when it could have actually affected the ballots? The votes have already been counted.

    Comment by Phantom Stranger — November 14, 2012 @ 5:22 pm

  3. Verlander is the top choice for the CY but King Felix should be the runner-up, then Price. (WAR) Verlander 6.8, Felix 6.1, Price 5.1 (INN) Verlander 238, Felix 232, Price 188 (K’s) Verlander 239, Felix 223, Price 212 (FIP) Felix 2.84, Verlander 2.89, Price 3.05 (t-ERA) Felix 3.21, Price 3.23, Verlander 3.43 (HR\9) Felix 0.54, Price 0.68, Verlander 0.72. But at least you thought KING FELIX as it seems everyone else has forgotten about him in this debate.

    Comment by Crix — November 14, 2012 @ 5:57 pm

  4. it may be worth noting that price led the AL in ERA, and each AL ERA leader has won the AL CY since 2006. ERA leader + 20 game winner + verlander winning in 2011 = price probably being the winner

    Comment by jim — November 14, 2012 @ 5:59 pm

  5. AL RA9-win leaders – verlander 7.6, price 7.2, sale 6.2, harrison 6.1, felix 5.9

    Comment by jim — November 14, 2012 @ 6:01 pm

  6. sorry brain error. Price’s innings 211 as mentioned in this article. sorry again.

    Comment by Crix — November 14, 2012 @ 6:03 pm

  7. personal wins are a non-factor.

    Comment by Crix — November 14, 2012 @ 6:06 pm

  8. for people who read fangraphs, sure. for the BBWAA? pitcher wins are absolutely a factor

    Comment by jim — November 14, 2012 @ 6:15 pm

  9. That’s nonsense. Personal wins aren’t the best way to evaluate a pitcher, but they’re not a non-factor (especially when it comes to jim’s point, which is who will win rather than who should win).

    Comment by vivalajeter — November 14, 2012 @ 6:16 pm

  10. Hmm, should Price’s value be adjusted for any benefit he got from Jose Molina’s pitch framing? argues that Jose Molina may have been worth as much as five wins converting balls to strikes, which would reduce the value of Price qua price by, perhaps, three-quarters of a win. Is this something teams getting pitchers from the Rays are going to have to look out for, inflated K/BB rates from Molina’s pitch framing?

    Comment by Kinanik — November 14, 2012 @ 6:16 pm

  11. That was supposed to be “Ben Lindbergh at BP: link to ungated article”

    Comment by Kinanik — November 14, 2012 @ 6:17 pm

  12. You’re crazy if you think fangraphs posts affect the ballots of these awards.

    Comment by Steve — November 14, 2012 @ 6:33 pm

  13. Verlander better, Price winninger.

    Comment by Cy Young Voters — November 14, 2012 @ 6:42 pm

  14. As a Tigers fan, I am now not going to feel as badly when Miguel Cabrera wins the MVP tomorrow. JV got robbed, so will Mike Trout.

    Comment by Colin — November 14, 2012 @ 6:47 pm

  15. It’s hard to say the voters chose Price because of wins. It had a lot to do with demographics. You had that one voter who had to go Rodney, Price, then Verlander. And those two LA voters going Weaver over Verlander cost him the ballot for sure. If you knock out the homerism of the vote, Verlander would of won.

    Comment by Frank — November 14, 2012 @ 6:47 pm

  16. He had a bit of an underperformance at the end. Yeah, Seattle sucked, but you still gotta look at the whole set of numbers. But yeah, JV, Felix, then Price.

    Was honestly surprised it went to Price. At least in the pitching world, a more holistic approach has been taken the last several years, instead of now just relying on raw win loss stats.

    Comment by Kevin — November 14, 2012 @ 6:47 pm

  17. Tough to feel sorry for someone who is banging Kate Upton.

    Comment by Rippers — November 14, 2012 @ 7:08 pm

  18. Consider these numbers for Price:

    * He was 10-2, 2.51 in 16 starts against AL East teams, representing four of the league’s top eight offensive teams by OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage).

    * He was 13-3, 2.27 in 19 games (and 62 percent of his innings) against teams that finished .500 or better, matching Weaver for the most such wins. (Verlander was 8-4, 2.63.)

    * He faced hitters with the highest aggregate OPS, as compiled by Baseball Prospectus, of the finalists, .763 (fifth among AL starters), compared to Verlander, .758 (15th) and Weaver .749 (29th).

    * He went seven or more innings in 23 of his 31 starts, the most in the majors. (Verlander did so in only 21 of his 33, Weaver in 16 of 30).

    * He allowed two earned runs or fewer in 23 starts, most in the AL.

    * He had a 1.62 ERA in his six no-decisions, including two starts when he threw eight shutout innings.

    Comment by JS7 — November 14, 2012 @ 7:08 pm

  19. Price and Verlander should have both won.

    Comment by Slats — November 14, 2012 @ 7:12 pm

  20. So you just add OBP to SLG?

    Comment by BBWAA — November 14, 2012 @ 7:14 pm

  21. Thank you for those totally arbitrary numbers!

    Comment by Colin — November 14, 2012 @ 7:17 pm

  22. Naturally, you’ve chosen the cutoff that makes Price look good.

    JV went 8 innings 15 times
    Price went 8 innings 5 times

    JV went 6 innings 31 times
    Price went 6 innings 26 times

    Comment by TheLegacyofJordanTata — November 14, 2012 @ 7:21 pm

  23. I am not complaining.

    Comment by Justin Verlander — November 14, 2012 @ 7:24 pm

  24. Valverde got robbed.

    Comment by Slats — November 14, 2012 @ 7:24 pm

  25. Could the Central’s OPS numbers be inflated relative to the East’s, because the East had overall better pitching? That would bolster the argument that Price pitched as well against tougher foes, maybe even enough that he’s an acceptable first-place candidate.

    From B-R, team ERA+ for the five AL East teams: 120, 109, 109, 92, 92. For the AL Central teams: 112, 108, 96, 82, 85. Maybe this means that the Central’s hitters were actually better, but my gut says to go the other way and say that the East hit as well against better pitching.

    Comment by Haishan — November 14, 2012 @ 8:00 pm

  26. Why should Verlander have an edge over Felix, especially since fWAR/FIP is heavily used on this site…

    Comment by Joe — November 14, 2012 @ 8:02 pm

  27. You’re really reaching with that one.

    Comment by Colin — November 14, 2012 @ 8:08 pm

  28. I’m just thinking out loud, I’m certainly no homer for Price. Certainly the W-L records are consistent with the hypothesis that teams in the East had significantly better pitching and somewhat better offense — divisional OPS doesn’t tell the whole story. (ERA+ is probably not the best stat to use here, either, but it was easy to look up).

    Maybe someone (I guess probably me) should run the splits and see if the East hit significantly better against the AL West than did the Central. If not, then maybe the East’s dominance is mostly due to pitching — certainly writers have mistaken good pitching for good, “scrappy” hitting in the past. But otherwise I think it’s still an open question which division was actually better on offense.

    Comment by Haishan — November 14, 2012 @ 8:21 pm

  29. Maybe not, a article about trout vs Cabrera was almost a carbon copy of a similar article on here. Fangraphs is seen as THE stat site.

    Comment by Antonio bananas — November 14, 2012 @ 8:23 pm

  30. Am I the only guy that thinks she’s incredibly run of the mill? Scrawney, no butt, blonde, it boobs. Wow, never see that before…

    Comment by Antonio bananas — November 14, 2012 @ 8:24 pm

  31. Not a bad decision. Price was actually the best pitcher this year until he missed a start or two because of a shoulder problem.

    Anyway, Verlander only lost because of those Angels writers refusing to give him more credit. A shame really. I wouldn’t even say he was robbed though. The voting was close as hell and Price isn’t exactly Bartolo Colon, if you get what I’m saying.

    Comment by Roy J — November 14, 2012 @ 8:44 pm

  32. Justin Verlander is pretty clearly the best pitcher on the planet right now and has been for at least the last 2-3 years now. He deserves the award. Other possible explanations for Price winning (and both are lousy reasons):

    - “I’m voting for Miguel Cabrera for MVP and I feel weird about giving the two major awards to teammates, especially when their team had the seventh-best record in the league.”

    - “Verlander already has won it, and Price hasn’t, and Price came close before… I think I’ll go for Price this time around.”

    Call the second rationale the Michael Jordan rationale. There was a pretty long stretch there when Jordan was very obviously the best basketball player on the planet, every single year. Yet voters got bored with just giving the MVP to him every single time. I’m sure that there have been some very lovely ladies who have won Homecoming Queen as juniors in high school who didn’t repeat for basically this same dumb reason although their loveliness was presumably more difficult to quantify than was Verlander’s performance vis-a-vis Price and the rest of the field.

    And do we know who voted for Fernando Romney? What an idiot.

    Comment by Robbie G. — November 14, 2012 @ 8:56 pm

  33. The Cy vote is a closer competition.

    Comment by chuckb — November 14, 2012 @ 9:06 pm

  34. Your girlfriend must be really special. Keep Verlander away from her.

    Comment by chuckb — November 14, 2012 @ 9:08 pm

  35. It was still big enough of a gap for there not to be much of a question so I fail to see your point.

    Comment by Colin — November 14, 2012 @ 9:19 pm

  36. I would also point out:

    Difference between JV WAR and Price WAR = 1.7
    Difference between Trout WAR and Miggy War = 2.9

    Difference to total WAR of pitchers (%) = 14.2%
    Difference to total WAR of hitters (%) = 16.9%

    Really it is pretty much the same.

    Comment by Colin — November 14, 2012 @ 9:26 pm

  37. Yes, it’s quite possible you’re the only one.

    Comment by Chris — November 14, 2012 @ 10:22 pm

  38. From the novice POV, am I to understand that JV had the superior, more highly valued, advanced stats yet lost the Cy to Price who had better traditional stats? Is this a fair statement?

    Comment by beelza — November 14, 2012 @ 11:13 pm

  39. Even then, not really. Verlander only had three less wins (20 to 17), but threw 27 more innings, had more strikeouts (239 to 205), had a higher K-rate (9.03 to 8.74 per 9), a lower BB/9, a lower H/9, had a lower WHIP, led the league in complete games.

    Some of the differences were very small, but they basically all leaned it Verlander’s direction. Even with ERA, Price beat him out by 0.08, but Verlander led the league in ERA+. It probably shouldn’t have been close.

    Comment by Frank Campagnola — November 14, 2012 @ 11:58 pm

  40. After Weaver finishing 3rd this year and 2nd (?) last year, I think it’s safe to say the CY vote is not “advanced stats catching on” in the Cy Voting and the narrative that people were trying to generate after Felix won the award is more just a shift of voters putting ERA in front of wins (instead of vice-versa). Seems like ERA is one, wins are now more of a secondary tiebreaker.

    Heck even the year Felix won it, he was significantly behind Cliff Lee (fWAR) and Price who had a pretty ERA finished 2nd (despite being pretty far down the fWAR list). Last year CC Sabathia was a distant 3rd (or 4th?) despite being dead even with Verlander on fWAR (and no I’m not saying Verlander shouldn’t have won last year). I don’t follow bWAR that closely, but my guess is that probably tracks the CY voting more closely as that is more closely tied to ERA (or at least RA)

    Comment by Tom — November 15, 2012 @ 12:48 am

  41. No, you’re not the only one. She’s pretty boring.

    Comment by JD — November 15, 2012 @ 1:31 am

  42. Price, Verlander, Weaver, King Felix…All pretty damn good. No debate there. Unless a pitcher is clearly super dominate in other categories/advanced metric stats then I still think a 20-5 pitcher is going to win out over a 17-8 pitcher in the voter’s eyes most years. Yes, this day in age the bullpen really screws with a pitcher’s win total, but it’s not like it’s a crime Price won. Price should however let Rodney skate with the trophy around the rink for a few seconds as he helped Price with that win total just a bit.

    Comment by rdj3video — November 15, 2012 @ 4:45 am

  43. Silly how Weaver somehow always gets overlooked, but King Felix really can’t be considered better than 4th in 2012. He got punched around a handful of times and punted away his Cy Young chances with a pretty lame September.

    Comment by rdj3video — November 15, 2012 @ 4:53 am

  44. The guy who went Rodney, Price, Verlander was from the Fort Worth Star Telegram in Texas. I doubt he’s a Rays homer, he’s just incorrect.

    Comment by YanksFanInBeantown — November 15, 2012 @ 7:48 am

  45. Meh face, too.

    Comment by YanksFanInBeantown — November 15, 2012 @ 7:49 am

  46. Alex Avila is pretty good at pitch framing, too, at least by subjective measurements–not sure how you look at that objectively.

    Comment by rea — November 15, 2012 @ 8:03 am

  47. I agree Verlander deserved it, for the reasons stated. I am curious how sabermeteics recognizes a Catfish Hunter-type lots-of-wins-but-lousy-peripherals season?

    Take 1973: he was 21-5 with a 3.34 ERA, but a 4.40 FIP and just 0.9 WAR.

    When he had leads, he got complacent and gave up dingers (1.37/9)–or perhaps he went into a sort of pre-vent defense. Either way, isn’t it worth something that the great majority of the times he maintained the leads? And is there evidence in this kind of pitcher, like the boxer being killed on points but able to pull off a late-round KO, that the end result has more statistical merit than newer metrics take into consideration?

    Comment by Keith — November 15, 2012 @ 8:47 am

  48. Also, because of the 7-4-3-2-1 scoring, Rodney-Price-Verlander would have actually narrowed the gap in Verlander’s favor rather than if he had Price 1 Verlander 2.

    Comment by David — November 15, 2012 @ 9:33 am

  49. While the second one shouldn’t matter, unfortunately, it probably is true in some cases. (Might have affected the NL voting too with Kershaw) For the first one, voters only vote for one award each year, so if they were voting for Cy Young, they would not be voting for MVP. I suppose someone still might use it as a rational saying he thinks Cabrera was the MVP, but I don’t know.

    Comment by David — November 15, 2012 @ 9:45 am

  50. What you’re going to do here is add OBP and SLG. Or not and just look at batting average.

    If I could have, I’d have voted for Davey Concepcion.

    Comment by Joe Morgan — November 15, 2012 @ 9:59 am

  51. This might help clarify the Cy Young debate.

    Comment by Josh Robbins — November 15, 2012 @ 10:14 pm

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