FanGraphs Baseball

Comments

RSS feed for comments on this post.

  1. With the Eagles going into full rebuilding mode (putting it nicely!), Philadelphia pools its assets and offers the city of Miami the first multi-sport trade…LeSean McCoy for Giancarlo Stanton

    Comment by sam — November 27, 2012 @ 3:39 pm

  2. Why compare Stanton’s potential earning to guys who signed away their arbitration years for long-term security (Pujols and Braun) instead of someone who actually went through the arbitration process, Like Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera received $7.4MM in his first arbitration year (before then signing an extension when traded to the Tigers). Given the general upward trend in MLB contracts, shouldn’t we expect Stanton to receive something in the $8-10MM range his first time through?

    If that is his starting point, he will definitely exceed $25MM in his 3 arbitration years. He would likely receive something more in the $35-45MM range.

    Comment by RationalSportsFan — November 27, 2012 @ 3:42 pm

  3. Stanton’s 2013 ZIPS projection:

    42R, 42HR & 42RBI.

    Comment by Rippers — November 27, 2012 @ 3:44 pm

  4. Anything is possible with that scumbag Loria.

    Comment by Slats — November 27, 2012 @ 3:44 pm

  5. What Stanton brings to the table so beautifully lines up with one of the most glaring Ranger needs right now it’s almost too much to behold. For Profar, Olt, and say 1 top ten pitcher in the minor league system, 1 from 11-20, and 1 from 21-30, good lord that’s a hell of a knot to untie. I, like most Rangers prospect followers, absolutely love Profar and Olt. The thought of parting with both of them, especially to condemn them to Jeff Loria’s Baseball Hell, makes me borderline nauseous. At the same time, both are blocked right now at their natural positions by Elvis and Adrian. I feel it comes down to how you feel about the competitive window: Does it close with Hamilton’s departure? If so, you hug your trash can, pull the trigger, and puke. If you think the window stays open, primarily because you have Profar and Olt ready to step in, then you dream of how Stanton could mash moonshots into the landing pattern at D/FW International and wait for the other shoe to fall.

    Comment by Mister Naxal — November 27, 2012 @ 3:48 pm

  6. No mention of the Mariners as trade partners? Montero, Smoak, Paxton, Franklin, Walker? Seems like the Ms have got a farm system that could appeal to the Marlins.

    Comment by Lh — November 27, 2012 @ 3:52 pm

  7. I had a hard time with Miggie, totally looked at him for a while. My problem with him was that he was still a third baseman! That puts him in a different bin, I’d guess. Even if you go down to 20 WAR for $30M, there’s just so much surplus value there that it’s going to be near impossible for another team to match.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — November 27, 2012 @ 3:53 pm

  8. The Rangers are the best match, I agree with you. Should they do it? Does it fit with their past dealings? I don’t think so.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — November 27, 2012 @ 3:54 pm

  9. No top-ten hitter, which would provide the bulk of the prospect surplus value going back.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — November 27, 2012 @ 3:54 pm

  10. Tell me how crazy I am: Justin Upton and Trevor Bauer to the Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton and Yunel Escobar. The Marlins then flip Upton for the best package available, say, Olt and Profar from Texas. The Rangers get their man, the Diamondbacks get both their coveted shortstop and a massive power threat, and the Marlins get rid of a head-case SS while stocking up with three of the best prospects in the game.

    Comment by Glomp — November 27, 2012 @ 3:54 pm

  11. Sign Mike Stanton out of retirement and trade him for Giancarlo Stanton.

    Fair deal.

    Comment by sameulraphael — November 27, 2012 @ 3:56 pm

  12. Did you really mention Smoak? Even as a throw in his value is so insignificant, he has no place in this conversation. Montero would have to be the 3rd or 4th most valuable piece in any deal for Stanton.

    Comment by brian — November 27, 2012 @ 3:57 pm

  13. Atlanta? They have the high-end arms plus lower ranking SS/C, would be set at the outfield corners for years, and Lauria seems to not care – I can’t imagine him worrying about Stanton ending up within the division. Advantage of being a pariah is that people’s opinion of you only goes so low.

    Comment by AK7007 — November 27, 2012 @ 3:57 pm

  14. On paper, there’s some chance for this. Three-team trade could help this happen. Marlins could put Olt, Profar and Bauer right into their lineup at positions of need. DBacks get what they want. Rangers? Upton for Olt and Profar? That’s the part that’s not quite there.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — November 27, 2012 @ 3:59 pm

  15. I wouldn’t mind the Braves trading the farm for Stanton.

    Comment by Chad — November 27, 2012 @ 4:02 pm

  16. Good point about the positional difference. I had not considered that. I still expect Stanton to set some arbitration records.

    But, as you said, he will still be supplying a ridiculous amount of surplus value.

    Comment by RationalSportsFan — November 27, 2012 @ 4:03 pm

  17. “penciling him in for another 25 wins over the next four years is reasonable.”

    No it isn’t. There are very few players in the recent history of baseball that you can reliably predict to be a consistent 6+ WAR player four years into the future. And I’d say that, Trout aside, there are none in baseball at present.

    Comment by Felonius_Monk — November 27, 2012 @ 4:03 pm

  18. Paging Alex A:
    Finish the trade with Toronto, send the Fish some combination (or all of) of TDA, Sanchez, Osuna, Noah S, and remove Rajai Davis and Lind from the team. Put Melky in RF, Bautista as 1B/DH sharing duties with EE and then proceed to drool over the lineup. Contingent on Stanton signing a 10yr 225mil deal!

    Cmon AA, gut the farm system completely, trade all the 2017 Jays for the 2013 Marlins!

    Comment by Radivel — November 27, 2012 @ 4:05 pm

  19. If there was one, he’d probably be a pre-peak slugger with consistent walk rates and decent defense, though, no?

    Comment by Eno Sarris — November 27, 2012 @ 4:06 pm

  20. “penciling him in for another 25 wins over the next four years is reasonable.”

    No it isn’t. There are very few players in the recent history of baseball, at any one point in time, that you can reliably predict to be a consistent >6 WAR player four years into the future. And I’d say that, Trout aside, there are none in baseball at present.

    Comment by Felonius_Monk — November 27, 2012 @ 4:07 pm

  21. But the principle still applies. Marlins could get more for their buck if they get Bauer plus whatever package Upton can bring them. Maybe Oscar Taveras/Shelby Miller from St. Louis? Just spitballing, I feel as if the Marlins’ asking price for Upton would be somewhat less specific than the D-Backs’ need for an SS

    Comment by Glomp — November 27, 2012 @ 4:09 pm

  22. I think to project someone to be worth 6.25 wins per year for the next four years they’d have to be a 7-8 WAR player in their peak years, to account for the risks endemic to baseball (injury, form falling away for various reasons, etc) which are comparatively greater over longer periods of projection.

    I’m not sure you’d project peak-Pujols for 25 WAR for the next 4 years at any point in his career. Perhaps Pujols, but that’s the sort of player you’re talking about. I’m not convinced Stanton, who hasn’t hit 6 WAR in his career yet ONCE, and who possesses an arguably rather high BABIP for a flyball hitter thus far in his career, is that sort of player, just yet. To be honest, if you gave me 20 WAR for his next 4 seasons, I’d take the under.

    Comment by Felonius_Monk — November 27, 2012 @ 4:11 pm

  23. I have a tough time seeing Profar as being the apple of the Marlins eye in any of these deals given they already traded for 2 shortstops.

    Comment by Pablo — November 27, 2012 @ 4:15 pm

  24. I’ll throw my hat in:

    Some combination of Gyorko and Erlin (essentially MLB ready) and Liriano and Hedges (both possibly ready 2014-2015) get it done?

    Comment by Drew — November 27, 2012 @ 4:18 pm

  25. $Texas for Stanton. Give Loria what he really wants.

    Comment by Jaack — November 27, 2012 @ 4:32 pm

  26. Braun and Pujols both topped 25 WAR in their peak four years, but the point is taken. Perhaps I should have put 20, but I’ll take the over on 20. And even at 20 WAR at $30M, he offers more than $80M in surplus value, and these trades were the only ones that got to $80M.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — November 27, 2012 @ 4:32 pm

  27. Doesn’t seem especially close. None of them top ten, or twenty five for that matter.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — November 27, 2012 @ 4:33 pm

  28. He’s 24? Is he no longer 23 because he’s not mike Stanton anymore and being Latin makes you age faster?

    Comment by Antonio bananas — November 27, 2012 @ 4:35 pm

  29. The Braves don’t have a single top 10 prospect. Simmons is probably their best prospect, and he’s more like top 25. So it’d have to be Simmons and then like 5 or 6 of their best minor league arms (Teheran, Delgado, Sims, Wood, Graham, and Gilmartin) to even get to the neighborhood of what Sarris is talking about here.

    Laying bare the cupboard for one player like that really doesn’t seem like Wren-era Braves style.

    Comment by Anon21 — November 27, 2012 @ 4:36 pm

  30. Thought the positional adjustment might account for some of that, but oh well, worth a shot.

    Comment by Drew — November 27, 2012 @ 4:52 pm

  31. The Cardinals could put together a pretty nice package, and their whole “You know what, screw defense!” thing of the past two years keeps me from completely ruling out Stanton in CF.

    Comment by Sparkles Peterson — November 27, 2012 @ 4:54 pm

  32. Where are you finding 2013 ZIPs projections?

    Comment by Rusty — November 27, 2012 @ 4:57 pm

  33. Considering their home parks, the current run environment, and the difference in defensive value, I can’t see how Ryan Braun was a better player at this point in his career than Giancarlo.

    But that is beside the point – the real point is that $25 million is absurdly low for what Stanton will get over the next 4 years. My guess is it is closer to $40 million. In addition, 25 WAR is absurdly high, and 20 WAR is more like the fair guess while 16 would be the conservative guess, especially given his durability concerns.

    All that said, just like any other top-10 trade commodity, a deal would be too ridiculous to ever happen. Can you even think of one player in the last 20 years who was traded while being a top-10 trade commodity? This applies to Stanton, but it also applies to McCutchen, Kemp, and other young superstars.

    Comment by TKDC — November 27, 2012 @ 4:57 pm

  34. 25 WAR over 4 years is an incredibly high and unrealistic bar. For example, nobody in baseball has managed 26 WAR over the last 4 years, and only three – Cabrera, Pujols and Zobrist – managed 25. Nobody in baseball should be pencilled in for both that level of skill and health.

    Comment by Andrew — November 27, 2012 @ 5:04 pm

  35. I should have been more clear that the money and WAR stuff was a guesstimation, and I get the criticism that 25 WAR is too high. I’ll take the over on 20 WAR though, and I’d guess I’d take the under on the arb offers, since I don’t think he’ll have great batting averages and they won’t care about his OBP. The point remains, as you finish in your comment, that even with 20 WAR/ $40M, he’s likely to have too much surplus value (over $80M) to make these deals work. These were the only deals I saw that even crossed the $80M threshold.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — November 27, 2012 @ 5:04 pm

  36. “Even if you are more conservative and have Stanton at 20 wins over the next four years, he’s a great bargain.”

    I’ll also offer up that he’s an elite talent himself.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — November 27, 2012 @ 5:06 pm

  37. It would be someone with a spotless injury history whose value is largely tied to his positional and defensive value that is not as likely to be affected by random luck like BABIP imo.

    I’m not saying he wont be that valuable. But to trade for him as if he will be is risking the most possible. I mean, the odds are almost zero that he OUTPERFORMS 25 WAR/4-years.

    Comment by Sivart — November 27, 2012 @ 5:07 pm

  38. None of these trades assumes he will hit the 25 WAR bar. All of them only get to $80M surplus.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — November 27, 2012 @ 5:08 pm

  39. Dude’s American. Born in the US. Don’t be an asshole.

    Comment by Ben — November 27, 2012 @ 5:09 pm

  40. Does any farm system have a top-ten pitcher AND hitter to spare, and then the willingness to add a top-50 hitter and pitcher? They’d still be a ‘live arm’ short of Stanton’s surplus value.

    The Cardinals have all this (very close to it if you don’t agree), but the willingness to part with that much talent dooms this trade.

    And Jon Jay could be included in the trade to make room for Stanton in the St. Louis OF (put Beltran in CF for the last year of his contract).

    Comment by Anon — November 27, 2012 @ 5:10 pm

  41. Woosh.

    Comment by Eric — November 27, 2012 @ 5:12 pm

  42. edited the piece to reflect the truth that more than 20 WAR is more reasonable than 25.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — November 27, 2012 @ 5:13 pm

  43. eh I had it a 24 years for some reason. My bad.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — November 27, 2012 @ 5:14 pm

  44. You forgot the Jays who have the assets to do it – TDA and Lawrie plus Syndergaard, Sanchez and Osuna. Yes there isn’t a top 10 pitcher, but close. I would balk if I was AA though – iits too much risk to gut the system and give up Lawrie who is still 22

    Comment by phil — November 27, 2012 @ 5:20 pm

  45. Settle down Francis.

    Comment by Pablo — November 27, 2012 @ 5:20 pm

  46. 153 BB, 150 IBB.

    Comment by Josh — November 27, 2012 @ 5:21 pm

  47. No I saw Travis D’Arnaud there… I just figured if they were going to do it, they woulda done it.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — November 27, 2012 @ 5:23 pm

  48. I was just thinking my beloved Jays have the stuff to get it done, if they want. d’Arnaud as the big young bat, Sanchez as the arm, and then go from there (some combo of Gose, Osuna, Syndergaard et. al.).

    I agree though – I’d want to sign him long term before I’d bet the farm on him. Exciting to think about!

    Comment by RaptorsAddict — November 27, 2012 @ 5:25 pm

  49. I love all the fans here trying to make up trades where their team could get Stanton.

    Comment by Steve 1 — November 27, 2012 @ 5:25 pm

  50. “Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy” for Stanton?

    I think I’d rather have the two Orioles kids.

    Comment by TX Ball Scout — November 27, 2012 @ 5:26 pm

  51. I’m a Giants fan. Its more of being an anti-Lauria fan at this point, thinking of ways to move Stanton to another team.

    Comment by AK7007 — November 27, 2012 @ 5:30 pm

  52. This guys says the exact same thing in almost the exact same words: http://www.fishstripes.com/2012/11/26/3690822/miami-marlins-giancarlo-stanton-trade-rumors-2012?ref=fangraphs

    Comment by randplaty — November 27, 2012 @ 5:30 pm

  53. I wouldn’t throw Lawrie into the deal, but I’d consider an all-prospect deal.

    Comment by RaptorsAddict — November 27, 2012 @ 5:30 pm

  54. Shoot I’ll have to get Michael on chat. I didn’t see that as I was working it up. I’d say that it’s not too hard for two people to use these same sources and work through this the same way.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — November 27, 2012 @ 5:33 pm

  55. I think we are forgetting an important point here. Given the scumbag that Loria is, would we really be shocked if he didn’t accept 100mil surplus in a trade? What about 80mil? 60mil? Given his incompetence it wouldn’t surprise me if he accepted a deal for Stanton that most of us thought was a fleece.

    Comment by jjdouglas — November 27, 2012 @ 5:42 pm

  56. I can’t come up with a single scenario where my team (the Indians) gets Stanton. So I’ll just follow along…

    Comment by RéRé — November 27, 2012 @ 5:42 pm

  57. When has he ever been fleeced before the fact? Trading Beckett for Hanley and Anibal? No. Trading Cabrera for Miller and Maybin? Yes after the fact but not before the fact — they were both BA Top 10 prospects. I’m not seeing where Loria has sacrificed value in a salary dump. For that matter Beinfest seems pretty sharp. Mike Hill is probably good too but I’ve no idea what he does.

    Comment by Ivan Grushenko — November 27, 2012 @ 6:03 pm

  58. stanton is 23 and has the highest HR/FB in baseball, by nearly 3%, since he entered the league. he’s 8th in SLG over that same time, 13th in wRC+, and in a park which suppresses RHB power by a fair margin. he shows no signs of a persistent or lingering injury.

    stanton is exactly the kind of player you would predict to do that.

    Comment by jim — November 27, 2012 @ 6:24 pm

  59. Newton and Leibniz both invented calculus and did so simultaneously, without being aware of the other’s work. When it’s time for a great idea, two or more geniuses may find it without copying the other. I maintain that’s what happened with Eno and the Fish guy.

    Comment by Baltar — November 27, 2012 @ 6:28 pm

  60. I wasn’t being an asshole. If anything, I was making fun of the rednecks that always make that assumption. Don’t be a sissy.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — November 27, 2012 @ 6:38 pm

  61. Also, he is latin. That’s his heritage. I have blonde hair and blue eyes, born in the US, german heritage, get Nazi jokes. It’s fun. Shouldn’t take yourself too serious.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — November 27, 2012 @ 6:40 pm

  62. OMG, that sounds so good right now…Jay can go back to a 4th OF until Beltran gets hurt again. Then, next year Taveras can join them – except we’d have to trade him to get Stanton. :(

    Comment by Ben — November 27, 2012 @ 6:41 pm

  63. Would Jarrod Parker and Josh Reddick get it done?

    Comment by Niall — November 27, 2012 @ 7:16 pm

  64. Hypothetically, what if Stanton went to Loria or whoever, and said, “I’m not playing another game for Miami. Trade me.”

    Does Stanton get suspended or otherwise punished? That has to lower the price for him. If the best Loria can get back is a stolen Rembrandt and two bags of weed, he has to take it at that point, right?

    Comment by Phrozen — November 27, 2012 @ 7:28 pm

  65. No, Newton’s work came first. Whether or not Leibniz was aware is debatable, but they definitely weren’t simueltaneous.

    /missing the point

    Comment by Phrozen — November 27, 2012 @ 7:31 pm

  66. The logic is that Loria should accept less than Stanton’s isolated surplus value (say $90m) for the sake of argument, because that value is a team-neutral assessment.

    Stanton helping the Marlins keep the losses in double digits isn’t as useful as getting some other team over the hump into the playoffs; it might make sense for Loria to take 80c on the dollar [other arguments about the Marlins fan base notwithstanding].

    What I don’t get is the idea that he’s too valuable now but that they may resign themselves to trading him in one or two years time – that seems crazy.

    Anyway, the Nats could be a reasonable trade partner – their one obvious need is in the OF (though signing Stanton would mean committing to Harper in CF for a while) and elsewhere their prospects may be blocked since most of the rest of the team is controlled through at least 3 years.

    A package based on the below could be interesting (obviously it might need one or two more):

    Anthony Rendon
    Alex Meyer
    Brian Goodwin
    Robbie Ray
    Steve Lombardozzi
    Michael Morse (only signed through next year)

    Comment by Aaron (UK) — November 27, 2012 @ 7:33 pm

  67. Heck, he probably got the better end of the Jays deal despite the media coverage of it.

    He traded very little surplus value for a pretty good return of surplus value – noone wants to do this analysis because it might make it look like a decent move from a talent perspective and it might not look like such a great trade for AA.

    Comment by Tom — November 27, 2012 @ 7:46 pm

  68. I spoke with Eno, it’s totally cool. Great minds think alike and such.

    Comment by Michael Jong — November 27, 2012 @ 8:29 pm

  69. Ok Hitler

    Comment by Nerds of Summer — November 27, 2012 @ 8:34 pm

  70. @Glomp

    Oscar Taveras and Shelby Miller for Upton? You’re joking, right? Why would a team that already has three outfielders under contract, 2 of whom are arguably better than Upton, give up two top 20 prospects to do that?

    Comment by gnomez — November 27, 2012 @ 8:56 pm

  71. I’m thinking:
    J.P. Arenciia
    Colby Rasmus
    Noah Syndergaard
    D.J. Davis
    For:
    Giancarlo Stanton

    Comment by Ted R. — November 27, 2012 @ 9:21 pm

  72. Miami is likely to get more surplus value from this trade, but I also think Toronto is likely to get more absolute value.

    Comment by David — November 27, 2012 @ 9:22 pm

  73. The cards could get there but it’s not with Jon Jay. Taveras and Shelby Miller + another piece is something the Marlin’s would have to consider. I don’t think the cards should attempt to meet that price simply because Stanton’s not a CF. Though the cards could meet the price, they’re not a very good fit.

    Comment by chuckb — November 27, 2012 @ 10:09 pm

  74. Are you a Blue Jays fan?

    Comment by WTF — November 27, 2012 @ 10:11 pm

  75. Not even close.

    Comment by vivalajeter — November 27, 2012 @ 10:13 pm

  76. “Can you even think of one player in the last 20 years who was traded while being a top-10 trade commodity?”

    I doubt it would be top 10, but ARod from Texas to the Yankees? By my calculations, after Texas chipped in money to help cover his salary, the Yankees owed him about $110 million for 7 years. That was still a lot back then.

    But he had just won the MVP, had average 9 WAR per year in Texas over 3 years, played SS (soon to be 3B). It’s the biggest trade I can think of, though it doesn’t match the overall value that Stanton would.

    Comment by dl80 — November 27, 2012 @ 10:49 pm

  77. Yes. Think they’d bite? Would they need another prospect, or a major leaguer, or someone in-between like Sierra?

    Comment by Ted R. — November 27, 2012 @ 11:13 pm

  78. D’arnaud would be a good starting point if you’re adding to that package, but not sure if that gets it done. J.P. hits HR, and does nothing else (I think he’s accumulated about 2 WAR in his career). Rasmus has minimal trade value as it’s looking less and less likely that he’ll be the player people thought he’d be. The rest aren’t bad 3rd/4th pieces if you have some top-notch talent ahead of them – but that offer doesn’t have anything close to top-notch talent between J.P. and Rasmus.

    Comment by vivalajeter — November 27, 2012 @ 11:18 pm

  79. the pirates have major league ready talent i think to cover a trade. cole or taillion (both rated between 8-15) Marte just promoted last yr and or josh bell is a top 50 prospect. the pirates also have alot of back end or reliever prospects at triple a.

    Comment by todd kemmerer — November 27, 2012 @ 11:44 pm

  80. MIke Illitch wants a freakin championship….

    Castellanos, Avi Garcia, Smyly, Casey Crosby and Dixon Machado.

    Comment by Tim — November 28, 2012 @ 12:01 am

  81. Glomp, maybe I’m just a Springfield cards fan. But I’ll take taveras over Upton right now. Next 5 years Upton will get worse, taveras will get better for much less. Add in miller? You nuts? Maybe miller and taveras for trout, Stanton, or maybe Heyward.

    Comment by Antonio bananas — November 28, 2012 @ 12:04 am

  82. It’s not, but with three 23 year olds in the everyday linep, adding a 23 year old Stanton and you’re looking at some ridiculousness. Teheran is just a year removed from back to back top 5 prospect rankings and apparently was working on stuff this year. Trade Teheran, gilmartin, Delgado, salcedo, betancourt, and graham for Stanton. That’s 6 decent-high ceiling guys. Maybe get a third team in somehow.

    Really don’t see why the rangers don’t get him. Hamilton shouldn’t be offered anything, Stanton will likely be better. Olt and Profar are blocked. No reason not to.

    Comment by Antonio bananas — November 28, 2012 @ 12:09 am

  83. 2 of wacha, miller, and Wong plus 2 of Jenkins, Martinez, rosenthal, and Adams plus an org filler could do it.

    Comment by Antonio bananas — November 28, 2012 @ 12:14 am

  84. Eh, bundy is a pitcher, so that makes him more of a risk. Machado has had small sample success in his limited time in AA and the Majors, but Stanton is a proven 23 year old 35-45 home run threat. I’d take Stanton.

    Comment by Antonio bananas — November 28, 2012 @ 12:18 am

  85. Surprised no one has mentioned the Red Sox yet but I’d be thinking that Bogaerts, Bradley Jr., and Barnes would be a pretty reasonable package. You’d probably have to add someone like Swihart or Cecchini but the basic outline is there.

    Comment by Michael Scarn — November 28, 2012 @ 12:42 am

  86. who would have guessed Zorilla would be on that select list?

    Comment by Cidron — November 28, 2012 @ 12:55 am

  87. Bad precedent for the player to do that. Remember the flack that Manny got when he (was accused of) tanked on his team(s) ? That action will haunt Stanton (or any other player) for years, always showing up at contract time in the form of incentives or clauses, but lower base pay.

    Comment by Cidron — November 28, 2012 @ 1:02 am

  88. not the pirates style. though, I like the thinking.. if they can acquire Stanton, they may be more able to attract free agents as well. (well, better ones)

    Comment by Cidron — November 28, 2012 @ 1:04 am

  89. He’s not obligated to play major league baseball. If he doesn’t play all they can do is not pay him. Plus he could probably go play in a Latin American league to keep sharp and put on a show for other teams. Heck, espn would probably show more highights of Giancarlo games in Latin America than Marlins games. It would be a bold move.

    Comment by Preston — November 28, 2012 @ 1:05 am

  90. this has been my same thought about how the Rangers are the ideal trade candidate.. it just doesn’t make sense unless there is a third team involved

    Comment by cody k — November 28, 2012 @ 1:36 am

  91. I think if you threw Porcello in there, they would have to consider that…

    I am still waiting to find out that the Tigers are a mystery team for Hamilton but that Hunter signing put a damper on that thought

    Comment by cody k — November 28, 2012 @ 1:52 am

  92. The M’s would probably have to part with Zunino plus two heads of Cerebus to bring the Marlins to the table. And even then they would probably have to throw in one of their bat first second base prospects.

    Comment by Brian — November 28, 2012 @ 1:54 am

  93. I saw this and thought you were crazy, but I guess from the Marlins’ end they are about cost cutting, not winning, and the only way they do the latter is to catch lightning in a bottle… such as hitting on the majority of a large package of prospects. Of course, only Rendon is considered a top one, though Goodwin has been making waves. But all four could, I suppose, have a chance. I think Lombo is a future super utility and that’s his ceiling, and like you say, Morse could bounce back from his injury but it’s one year (and more expensive than Stanton in 2013). But it’s a thought of how it could go down, instead of a formula of one top-ten pitcher and hitter. However, I don’t see Rizzo literally giving up the farm, even if Stanton’s four remaining controlled years fit in with their window because of just that… he doesn’t want it to be 2013-2015 and then have nothing. It wasn’t very fun having nothing for the first five years building up a razed farm system once D.C. got the team, and I think they want to have an eye both to now and after-now. Oh, and they’d need to then give LaRoche the inflated contract he wants, because Morse couldn’t move over and take his spot if he is traded… and the OF FA market is waaay better this year than 1B.

    Interesting, though…

    Comment by Will H. — November 28, 2012 @ 2:13 am

  94. I love that this inquiry, investigation, and settlement took about three hours on a Tuesday evening. It seems like the sort of thing that, back in the day, might have taken several decades and a good historian to reconcile.

    Comment by Jon L. — November 28, 2012 @ 2:16 am

  95. Or Stanton can compile MLB money and MLB numbers playing for the Marlins. He could easily hit 50 home runs if the Marlins are bad enough that pitchers often have no strategic need not to challenge him. At this point in his career, he has a shot at historic home run totals and a Hall of Fame career. There’s no need to self-handicap himself by being too much of a child to tolerate playing baseball in a beautiful stadium in his own country for incredible riches for a bad team.

    Comment by Jon L. — November 28, 2012 @ 2:22 am

  96. And you wagered Texas…with a dollar sign in front of it. I’m speechless.

    Comment by Eric — November 28, 2012 @ 3:10 am

  97. As a Mets fan, I’m glad we got Wheeler and left Brown to graze your outfields. Brandon Belt and Wheeler could have made that trade happen, and it would have been annoying as hell.

    Comment by Mets Magic — November 28, 2012 @ 4:48 am

  98. lol

    Comment by theeiffeltower — November 28, 2012 @ 4:49 am

  99. Yeah you’re right Yunel Escobar and Adeiny frekaing Hechevarria are really going to stand in Jurickson Profar’s way

    Comment by theeiffeltower — November 28, 2012 @ 4:50 am

  100. haha

    Comment by theeiffeltower — November 28, 2012 @ 4:50 am

  101. Lawrie/TDA/Sanchez might do it/be too much to give up, I dunno. Also “If they were going to do it, they woulda done it” is a total cop-out–can’t you say that about every single potential trade?

    Comment by theeiffeltower — November 28, 2012 @ 4:54 am

  102. hahahaha

    Comment by theeiffeltower — November 28, 2012 @ 4:56 am

  103. who is d.j. davis

    Comment by theeiffeltower — November 28, 2012 @ 4:56 am

  104. Isn’t that the point of this post??

    Comment by Phil — November 28, 2012 @ 5:48 am

  105. Not in a million years would the Marlins consider this.

    Comment by Simon — November 28, 2012 @ 7:43 am

  106. No chance.

    Comment by Simon — November 28, 2012 @ 7:44 am

  107. I want Tigers to trade for stanton, extend him, and then sign Hamilton. Have VMart catch, Stanton DH, hamilton in LF, Hunter in RF, jackson CF, leave peralta at SS and get someone to stand at 2B. Hey, it is not my money.

    Comment by binqasim — November 28, 2012 @ 8:02 am

  108. This was assuming the Nats re-sign LaRoche – if they don’t then obviously keeping Morse for 2013 makes more sense – though they do have prospects at 1B too (Tyler Moore, Chris Marrero). They have internal candidates for 1B too: Werth (declining range) and Zimmerman (declining ability to throw).

    The Nats would still have some reasonable farm prospects further down the line even if they gave up a lot: to be honest a bigger reason for the Nats not doing it might be that they don’t feel they need the extra wins in this current window.

    PS another reason for the Marlins to trade Stanton is to lock down that #1 draft pick for the next couple of years ;-)

    Comment by Aaron (UK) — November 28, 2012 @ 8:11 am

  109. What about Ryan Howard? His profile is more similar to Stanton and he got paid quite a bit through his arbitration years.

    Comment by Brad Johnson — November 28, 2012 @ 8:12 am

  110. Can we send Andrew Bynum to the Heat too? We swear his knees are fine.

    Comment by James — November 28, 2012 @ 8:27 am

  111. Could be the first player in history with a 30% K rate and a 30% BB rate in the same season!

    Comment by James — November 28, 2012 @ 8:31 am

  112. I Feel like that overrates his vaule, If the Marlin’s offered Stanton for Bundy/Machdo, there is no way the O’s do that, and really, Im not sure many teams would take Stanton over those two.

    Comment by jesse — November 28, 2012 @ 8:44 am

  113. What would an NL team do with Montero?

    Comment by Jack — November 28, 2012 @ 8:54 am

  114. What about Miller + Taveras for Stanton? Top 5 prospect in OT and ~Top 15-20 in Miller.

    The Cards could then try to flip Beltran to a contender. As a Cards fan I don’t think I’d do this (and they never would), but it doesn’t sound awful.

    Comment by MSom13 — November 28, 2012 @ 9:22 am

  115. I thought about A-Rod, but he was not a top-10 trade commodity as you can’t count the cash (or else it really just ruins the point). You might call the A-Rod the Yankees had (the 7/110 million guy) a top-10 trade commodity, but then the Yankees did not trade him.

    Comment by TKDC — November 28, 2012 @ 10:05 am

  116. Next 5 years upton will get worse? How old do you think he is?

    Comment by David — November 28, 2012 @ 10:08 am

  117. Though the cards could meet the price, they’re not a very good fit.

    I agree, which is why I mentioned moving Jay to make room in the OF. Marlins don’t want salary, so Beltran and Holliday wouldn’t work unless it is a three team deal.

    Comment by Anon — November 28, 2012 @ 10:09 am

  118. If I were the O’s owner and I found out my GM didn’t take that, I’d fire him.

    Comment by TKDC — November 28, 2012 @ 10:09 am

  119. I honestly don’t think it would be enough. You do have 3 top 100 guys, but Robbie Ray was awful this year. Lombo makes some sense. I imagine you would have to throw a few more arms in, Karns isn’t on lists but his stuff and performance would be interesting. Maybe a tools guy or two like michael taylor or destin hood. A catcher that could actually play at the MLB level (maybe Ramos, even though injured last year, would need to be included I honestly have no idea what florida likes in players from a tools standpoint though) Miggy had a terrible reputation when he was traded and still brought 2 top 10 propsects in baseball, a high velocity lefty and CF specifically, and a number of other arms, plus the marlins got to dump salary with dontrelle willis. I just don’t see 3 top 100 guys getting it done, Im not even sure the Nats have enough availible unless solis or giolito bounce back very strong next year.

    Comment by David — November 28, 2012 @ 10:14 am

  120. Vmart catch AND Miggie at 3b? Your pitchers will not like you one bit, given the defense they have to perform with.

    Comment by Cidron — November 28, 2012 @ 10:20 am

  121. It would be awfully fun to watch them kick the ball around in 10-8 wins though.

    *not a Tigers Fan

    Comment by Chris — November 28, 2012 @ 10:43 am

  122. Of course it is, but but you didn’t expect snarkyinternetguy to not chime did you? I sure did.

    Comment by Chris — November 28, 2012 @ 10:47 am

  123. It might. When were they hired as GM and who were they thinking of offering in trade to the Marlins?

    Comment by Chris — November 28, 2012 @ 10:49 am

  124. It’s easy to be snarky – but even given the hypothetical of the Marlins dealing Stanton, all of these deals aren’t done in a vacuum. The Marlins just traded for two shortstops – why would they trade for more?

    The question was begged: Is it impossible for the Marlins to trade Stanton? It just might be, and their recent trade to acquire multiple shortstops hinders their need/want to trade for more.

    Comment by Chris — November 28, 2012 @ 10:56 am

  125. Don’t think Miami takes that. Salcedo and Bethancourt really haven’t established themselves as good prospects in the grand scheme of things. All the arms have promise, but I continue to believe any package they’d put together would have to involve Simmons (thereby creating a hole at SS, which is another thing Wren wouldn’t want to do).

    Comment by Anon21 — November 28, 2012 @ 11:11 am

  126. yeah, Michael Jong used Howard and Fielder to get to $38 million in arb, which sounds reasonable to me. Still $80m of surplus at 20 WAR and $38M in salary, probably.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — November 28, 2012 @ 11:22 am

  127. I don’t think it is in this case, considering the two teams just locked up in a mega trade and I’m sure they talked about Stanton.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — November 28, 2012 @ 11:22 am

  128. But what about the hair???

    Comment by Bigmouth — November 28, 2012 @ 11:56 am

  129. Do the Marlins even want players back? I’m pretty sure the Marlins would take the money and run if someone offered them something like $50-60 million for the rest of Stanton’s contract. Players are too much of a hassle…

    Comment by OtherSideoftheCoin — November 28, 2012 @ 12:08 pm

  130. No, and if you toss in maybe Jenkins, I think the Marlins would have to think about it, right?

    Comment by tehzachatak — November 28, 2012 @ 12:14 pm

  131. Most fangraphs readers?

    Comment by tehzachatak — November 28, 2012 @ 12:15 pm

  132. Didn’t Stanton himself already say it wouldn’t work since his last name backwards is NotNats? I guess there is a chance he changes his name to make it happen.

    Comment by Dustin — November 28, 2012 @ 12:23 pm

  133. Might have to agree to disagree on this. The “type” of player you project to put up 6+ WAR/yr for four years into the future is generally pretty much the best player in baseball, in their peak years. Pujols hasn’t done it in the last four years. Braun hasn’t, and he’s been remarkably healthy.

    I might’ve projected the 27-year-old Pujols to do it, Barry Bonds at his peak, and A-Rod a few years ago, but other than that (and maybe Trout now), hard to see too many players at any point in the last decade or so that you’d project more than 6 WAR/yr for the next four years of their career. It’s just a huge level, in terms of production and health.

    Ryan Braun’s put up 24.7 WAR the last four years and was almost superhumanly healthy during that time (averaging about 670 PA/yr).

    Also, the only real difference between Stanton’s pro-rata numbers last year and his 4.5 WAR full-season 2011 were a higher BABIP and better (some might say unlikely sustainable) UZR. He basically needs to maintain the BABIP (or improve his BB/K figure), keep being statistically one of the best right-fielders in baseball defensively, AND be pretty much healthy for the next four full seasons to put up 25 WAR.

    I’m not making the point that Stanton isn’t one of the best and most valuable players in baseball. Just that a projection of 25 WAR over the next four years of a career should be reserved for peak-level, hall-of-fame, generational-type talents.

    Comment by Felonius_Monk — November 28, 2012 @ 1:53 pm

  134. The papers here in Chicago had some kind of Starlin Castro/pitching offer for Stanton. I know Theo would set the Cubs in the right direction with Stanton and Rizzo. Maybe it’s our journalists wishful thinking, but Castro (last name notwithstanding) would go over well with the Miami crowd as a latin player.

    Comment by VeilsideTony — November 28, 2012 @ 2:13 pm

  135. Maybe they have an evil plan to acquire all shortstops of value and use them to form an artificial scarcity, driving up the prices when they trade them!

    Though I prefer the Goldfinger plan, which is to acquire only a small number of shortstops and then irradiate the rest to increase the value of the ones currently in your farm system. *Loria-finger… he’s the man, the man with the miser’s touch! A spider’s touch!”

    Comment by B N — November 28, 2012 @ 2:18 pm

  136. With Cabrera/Stanton/Fielder/Hamilton/VMart as the heart of the order, would they really need defense? Just let the pitchers throw until they record three strikeouts every inning.

    Comment by Sinnycal — November 28, 2012 @ 2:19 pm

  137. Matching Stanton’s entire surplus value isn’t the only way to close the value gap. A team could take on another player and the contract to reduce the surplus value Miami is giving up. But do the Marlins even have any bad contracts remaining that that’d like to get out from under, or have they been completely bailed out by now?

    Comment by Sinnycal — November 28, 2012 @ 2:27 pm

  138. why yes, it would go over well.. just like the last “Castro” out of Chicago. okay okay, but, given the SS in Miami (Escobar for current, Hechavarria for future) I am not sure that Castro is really worth Miami’s time. That is, unless they flip him to a SS starved team for even more prospects.

    Comment by Cidron — November 28, 2012 @ 2:29 pm

  139. Nolasco is about the only remaining name.. LoMo is also still on the roster, though neither is a “bad contract”..

    Comment by Cidron — November 28, 2012 @ 2:30 pm

  140. From a pure value standpoint, not considering team needs, a young MLB star like Castro is probably the easiest way to cover a big portion of Stanton’s surplus value in a trade without completely gutting a farm system.

    And the Cubs in particular, with deep pockets and relatively little (for that market) in the way of payroll obligations, are in a position to create or negate surplus value by eating whatever money is necessary. Someone above joked that the Marlins don’t want players and would rather take cash, but it’s not an entirely invalid point to consider. This is purely academic as I can’t imagine why the Marlins would consider it, but say the Cubs were to include Soriano and cash to cover virtually all of his contract. That’s a lot of pure cash value added to whatever Castro-headlined package they could put together.

    Comment by Sinnycal — November 28, 2012 @ 3:00 pm

  141. Hey, if the Marlins wanted to move Nolasco and Stanton to the Cubbies for Castro, Soriano (Cubs pay the contract) and a pitching prospect or two, I am pretty sure Theo would jump all over that deal. Rizzo and Stanton would form a pretty solid core as 3-4 hitters….maybe the Marlins would also take Carlos Marmol if the Cubs pay his salary too?

    Comment by VeilsideTony — November 28, 2012 @ 3:23 pm

  142. sign ALL the players!

    Comment by jim — November 28, 2012 @ 5:27 pm

  143. this is the most ridiculous thing i’ve read all week

    Comment by jim — November 28, 2012 @ 5:31 pm

  144. Cabrera is a better comp by age. I believe Howard and Braun were still in the minors at Stanton’s current age. I would think a younger age is something that could be leveraged in arbitration for more value.

    Comment by James — November 28, 2012 @ 6:16 pm

  145. It’s incredibly misleading to say Braun hasn’t “put up 6+ WAR/yr for four years” because he did in fact average 6.2 WAR over that span. So all you really mean is he didn’t literally put up 6+ WAR each season.

    And just a few comments ago you were saying “I think to project someone to be worth 6.25 wins per year for the next four years they’d have to be a 7-8 WAR player in their peak years.”

    So apparently it was OK to speak in terms of average WAR but it’s not anymore.

    Comment by glenstein — November 28, 2012 @ 6:41 pm

  146. I think I’d rather have five years of Machado and Bundy than three years of Stanton.

    Comment by philosofool — November 28, 2012 @ 7:04 pm

  147. Two things: positional need is pretty far down the list of concerns when you’re as far from contention as the Marlins are. They should be thinking in terms of adding future franchise cornerstones, not filling out the lineup in 2012. They could even play them all simultaneously, for what that’s worth–Profar and Hechevarria covering the MI positions, and Escobar at 3B. Also, the gap between Profar and Escobar/Hechevarria is quite large. Escobar is 30 and was middling at best last year in a nice hitting environment, while Hechevarria is totally unproven, not nearly as highly regarded by talent evaluators as Profar, and could very well profile as a utility guy.

    Comment by theeiffeltower — November 28, 2012 @ 10:20 pm

  148. LOLOL Taveras over Upton? No, you’re not just a Springfield cards fan. You’re an incredibly stupid Springfield cards fan. Oscar was in AA last year as a 20 year old. Justin spent his 20th year on Earth in the major leagues putting up an all-time top ten season for 20 year olds. Oscar won’t even be a major league regular for at least 2 more seasons.

    Upton walks more, has more power and steals more bases than Taveras. Oh yeah, he also had a higher OPS than OT at AA too.

    As for the other Cards’ idiot. Good luck relying on a couple of aging corner outfielders. Who do you think will decline more in the next 3 years? A 35 year old Beltran, a 32 year old Holiday or a 24 year old Upton? I already know your answer though …

    Comment by Terms of Service — November 28, 2012 @ 10:53 pm

  149. LOL You are pure comedy gold Hitler

    Comment by Terms of Service — November 28, 2012 @ 11:02 pm

  150. Either play him at catcher or first base. NL teams have found a way to play Lucas Duda or Adam Dunn, so I’m sure trotting out Montero at catcher won’t be the most egregious thing ever.

    Comment by BlackOps — November 29, 2012 @ 3:44 am

  151. Braun hasn’t put up 25 WAR over the last 4 years, is what I meant, apologies if this was unclear.

    As to the rest of your post, not really sure what you mean.

    My basic point is that it is incredibly hard to put up 25 WAR in 4 years, and you should only project absolutely elite, generational talents at their peak to do so. Projecting this for Stanton is simply wrong, as the OP has since corrected.

    Comment by Felonius_Monk — November 29, 2012 @ 7:26 am

  152. Miller + Taveras is probably fair I think. If we assume 20 WAR for Stanton over the next four years, and 30-40m salary paid during arby, he’s got something like 60-70m in surplus value.

    Using Wang’s prospect values, Taveras + Miller is worth about $50m. It’s pretty close, especially if Loria is keen to sell Stanton and there are no other takers.

    Comment by Felonius_Monk — November 29, 2012 @ 7:30 am

  153. @glomp

    It might happen if Taveras wasn’t a good pure hitter who was never projected to make it to the majors. Upton is good, but he isn’t the type of player who would command multiple top prospects, right now anyway. Theres still time for him to improve. And as far as the fellow who talked about Beltran declining for the next three years. He’s only under contract for one more, and I find it extremely unlikely that the Cardinals will resign him for 13 million per year again.

    Comment by deathring109 — November 29, 2012 @ 9:39 am

  154. the marlins will keep him until arbitration Nuff said

    Comment by Stanton Sweep stakes — November 29, 2012 @ 8:30 pm

  155. The Marlins would probably trade him for a bag of marbles.

    Comment by Mark Schroeder — November 30, 2012 @ 2:29 am

  156. I have been saying that as a Marlins fan, its really hard to even fathom what we can ask for Stanton. I have come to the conclusion that right now, the best move might be to trade him and look towards 2014 or 2015 to begin competing. The only thing I can even consider though is if the Cardinals called and offered Taveras, Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez, Mat Adams, and 1-2 slightly lower prospects, Maybe its 1 more power arm and an infielder, maybe Mat Carpenter, or even another power arm. The Cardinals system is deep enough to take the hit right now, though I dont know if they would be willing to do something like this. For the Marlins, they get a potential superstar in Taveras, a power hitting 1b in Adams, 2 young SP who throw 100 and at the very least can dominate the backend of the bullpen if they dont pan out as starters, etc. I know it sounds greedy, but I honestly think that being greedy is something that should be understood in this situation, especially since Stanton is just 23 with 4 more years of control.

    Comment by Z..... — November 30, 2012 @ 5:50 am

  157. That was the point.

    Comment by binqasim — November 30, 2012 @ 9:08 am

  158. They play two different sports

    Comment by Jahdiel — November 30, 2012 @ 9:43 am

  159. Miguel Cabrera

    Comment by Jeff M — November 30, 2012 @ 1:17 pm

  160. Just some fruit for thought. V-Mart will never catch again, even if signing Hamilton were possible, you really want an injury riddled (not to mention the off field problems) on our Tigers? Miggy has fought his demons and you wanna pair the two? On paper, great, but he seems to end up on the relapse side more than not. Not the best idea. As for Stanton, he may seem impossible to abtain, but in baseball, and thing is possible. The only way the Tigs could get him is by signing Drew, flipping Jhonny (who I like) for a good prospect. Use that prospect and deal him, Smily, Crosby and Avasail Garcia, kick in some cash and try and get Stanton. Maybe even Buck as a back-up catcher. That’s the only way its going down. I like all the players I have mentioned and it would saddened a lot of hometown Detroit fans, but Stanton would be worth it. It won’t happen, Stanton will end up wearing that fancy M for years to come. Stupid, yes. But we are talking about the Marlins. Than again, thanks for Cabby, how are Maybin, Miller and those “other” guys working out for ya?

    Comment by kevin — November 30, 2012 @ 2:06 pm

  161. please joking?

    Comment by henry — November 30, 2012 @ 4:53 pm

  162. Buck went to Toronto in the deal. Also, Castellanos has to be in there with Garcia and the rest.

    Comment by Z..... — November 30, 2012 @ 6:31 pm

  163. aroldis chapman,billy hamilton,devin mesoraco,corcino.put stanton in between votto an bruce

    Comment by dave rothwell — December 1, 2012 @ 2:44 pm

  164. Okay Eno,

    What do you think of a trade with the Angels?

    Mark Trumbo, Peter Bourjos, Randall Grichuk, A.J. Alvarez, and Travis Witherspoon for Giancarlo Stanton?

    Trumbo and Bourjos have a lot of value and are both controllable for the next 4 seasons and would fill up the hole created by Stanton leaving plus the CF issue.

    Just a wild thought from an Angels fan. Trumbo has about $30 million in surplus value. Bourjos could easily have $50 million+ in surplus value due to his elite defense and average MLB bat (he never had a regular amount of consistent plate appearances in 2012).

    Comment by ettin — December 18, 2012 @ 2:05 pm

  165. Trumbo for Stanton.. basically, with some throw-ins.. I dont see the upgrade being enough to warrant such a trade. Who knows what Trumbo will become as he gets more playtime under his belt.

    Comment by Cidron — December 18, 2012 @ 3:58 pm

  166. Hi Cidron,

    The problem is do you believe in the early 2012 Trumbo or the 2nd half 2012 Trumbo? Or something in between?

    Trumbo has about the same raw power that Stanton has but Giancarlo appears to get on-base a lot better than Trumbo has or possibly ever will.

    I love Trumbo but to be honest I’m not sure he is ever going to be as consistently good as Stanton is. Trumbo’s on-base skills leave something to be desired. That being said Trumbo appears to be a hard worker and could possibly improve.

    Mike Stanton is a step above and is much younger than Trumbo. How far above is debatable but Stanton just slugs a little better and gets on-base a lot better. If the Angels, by some miracle, could trade for him and sign him long-term, along with Trout, it would be a coup of epic proportions for the Halos.

    Comment by ettin — December 18, 2012 @ 4:06 pm

  167. Stanton to the Cubs for Castro/Vitters/Lake/Soriano/$forSoriano? Cubs could bring up Baez to take over in Castro’s absence and might get a SS who can remember how many outs there are.

    Comment by Kris — January 2, 2013 @ 8:52 am

Leave a comment

Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>


Close this window.

0.326 Powered by WordPress