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  1. Marshall can’t be trusted as closer. Dusty Baker told me so.

    Comment by AJ — November 28, 2012 @ 2:07 pm

  2. Hard to know for sure, but one possible explanation of better performance in Cincinnati than KC is improved health or arm strength or however you want to couch it. Missing most of 2011 due to injury implies some transition period in 2012, no?

    Comment by TK — November 28, 2012 @ 2:41 pm

  3. Strangely he had a period of arm tiredness in Cincy where he had to be shut down.

    Comment by AJ — November 28, 2012 @ 3:07 pm

  4. Strangely he had a period of arm tiredness in Cincy where he had to be shut down.

    Comment by AJ — November 28, 2012 @ 3:07 pm

  5. If guys like League, Broxton, and Affeldt are getting 3 years and $18-21 million, what on earth is Rafael Soriano asking for? I thought Papelbon type contracts would be on the decline, but if non-elite (or even great) relievers are getting these three year deals…oi!

    Comment by Marcat — November 28, 2012 @ 3:38 pm

  6. I don’t like this for Cincy. Whatever the $ value for marginal wins, and wherever the Reds fall on the success cycle, any FA contract should be viewed through the lens of the Four Questions:

    Is there someone almost as good, for a lot less money?

    Is there anyone just as good, for a bit less money?

    Is there somebody a little better, for the same dollars?

    Is there anybody who’d cost more, but be quite a bit better?

    Given all the options (internal and external) for Cincy, I think one can safely answer in the affirmative to at least two or three of the above questions — if not all four.

    The large investments in Votto and Phillips notwithstanding, this is still a mid-market club with modest payroll flexibility, as far as I can tell. So $7M per year, for three years of a reliever who may or may not be healthy plus effective, and ain’t exactly a paragon of conditioning, just feels borderline reckless.

    Comment by Bob — November 28, 2012 @ 4:05 pm

  7. I would have liked to have given a shot to both Marshall and JJ Hoover at closer before signing a free agent as the closer. With that said, if Broxton can be close to the guy he was with the Reds last year (not so much the guy he was with the Royals), this works for the Reds because when it comes to Dusty Baker, he absolutely needs guys for exact roles. He doesn’t handle things well when there aren’t defined roles for everyone, so this whole “not having a proven closer” thing doesn’t work for him. He would yank anyone after a sketchy performance or two (see Sean Marshall, 2012) and that just isn’t good business. Having someone who is proven (I use that word for him, not for you or I) allows him to have leeway in not yanking someone if they show struggles over a week or two period of time and disrupt the entire bullpen. I don’t like it in that sense, but we are stuck with Dusty as the manager, so with that in mind, the move makes sense for the team.

    As for not knowing if he is healthy, the guy pitched in 63 games last if we include the playoffs. He wasn’t shut down at the end of the year for anything, so there really doesn’t seem to be any more “injury risk” associated with him than any other reliever you are going to bring in.

    Comment by Doug Gray — November 28, 2012 @ 5:08 pm

  8. How is BJ Upton worth 15 mil a year, there is the story you should be writng….The guy can’t even hit .250…..And has slightly better then average power……His contract compared to Broxton…..I await your story on the Braves ineptness.

    Comment by Bob — November 29, 2012 @ 1:26 am

  9. All I know is dude is fat. While that may have worked for David Wells, I am not sure about Broxton.

    Comment by bkgeneral — November 29, 2012 @ 9:39 am

  10. I would say its not just Dusty Baker that needs a proven closer, but a team that is trying to win a WS while shuffling their rotation to fit a potential superstar. Broxton on board calms things down for the bullpen instead of relying on guys that haven’t done it. Right or wrong, it’s what the organization needs. Not many serious contenders like going into the season without a big name closer.

    Comment by mdccclxix — November 29, 2012 @ 9:42 am

  11. Just want to disassociate myself from those oddly off-topic Upton remarks of Other Bob.

    Also, Doug does make some very valid points — but it nevertheless feels (not unlike the League contract) like an overreach, in AAV or years or both. Philosophically, I can see the Reds wanting Broxton… but on a practical level, would he not have re-inked for, say 2/12 or 3/16?

    It just feels like there’s a real double-risk in play here. If Broxton is good-not-great, it’s an overpay of $3-4M per year. And if Chapman is an OK-but-inefficient 5 1/2 innings-per-start guy, then you’ve weakened your bullpen without really improving the rotation, while bumping payroll up against its limit.

    Or to put it yet another way, if Broxton’s contract has any *meaningful* effect on who the club can and can’t pursue at other needful spots (LF, bench, maybe even CF) then I have to call it a mistake.

    Comment by First Bob — November 29, 2012 @ 2:16 pm

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