Why would the Braves want Bourjos for lead-off? Aren’t leadoff hitters supposed to be good at getting on base? Bourjos is more of a #9 hitter than a #1 hitter. The Braves also have a CF so they don’t need him.
But Frank Wren stated that Upton is their CF and he will not be moving. Thus, it would be a total waste for the Braves to get Bourjos and then play him in LF. They may as well just use Constanza in LF and not give up a valuable prospect or young pitcher.
Bourjos for Nolasco. I would love that.
I would even take on Vernon Wells contract in order to get Bourjos to play CF here.
a) This team has no talent.
b) This team hasn’t spent any money anyway.
Difference between Nolasco/Wells contracts is 10 million in ’13.
The Marlins are likely not going to spend the next two offseasons so just deal with Wells contract and get a real CF’er for a change.
Sort of like an expiring contract but for two years since the Marlins aren’t likely to compete in ’13 and ’14, anyway. After that, he leaves.
From the Angels standpoint, they get their pitcher. If they’re interested in Blanton, they’d probably have some interest in Nolasco. Basically the same guy. Strike-thrower, could have better results with a better defensive team. Nolasco’s main problem has to do with shitty .BABIP’s, in part because the Marlins defense always sucks. Because this front office is clueless. Fortunately, DiPoto seems to know the value of a good defensive team.
Comment by marlins12 — December 13, 2012 @ 5:42 pm
The batting tee for Wells might work the best, although that’s one expensive batting tee.
Comment by rdj3video — December 13, 2012 @ 5:43 pm
Yeah, Wren seemed pretty unequivocal that Upton would be the starting center fielder, even if that doesn’t make a lot of sense in light of the trade candidates available. I could see them getting in on Trumbo if they were convinced he will stick in the outfield for the duration of team control. Or maybe not; they may want to keep a spot in LF open for Uggla in 2014, and might prefer to do a LF rental this year.
No way. Mike never gave that an honest effort with Trumbo last March/April. They could try it again, but I’d be surprised as Mike goes nuts over poor defense.
Comment by rdj3video — December 13, 2012 @ 5:49 pm
I agree with that. Peter probably deserves a shot to play, but I’m not totally sure his beastly speed and bunting ability on MLB2K12 will translate to real baseball in 2013.
Comment by rdj3video — December 13, 2012 @ 5:51 pm
Would love to see the Royals deal Hosmer to get Trumbo. Hoz probably needs to go back to AAA this year, then he can slide in for Kendry after his contract is up next season. Since they suddenly have about 8 fifth starters, Hosmer, Mendoza and a prospect could get it done for Trumbo methinks. They really need a legit feared power hitter in the middle of that lineup, not a big kid with a mohawk who swings at everything.
I would LOVE to see the Indians try hard for Trumbo and stick him in RF to replace Choo. The combination of youth, control, and power would help balance out the lineup with his RH bat and set the team for long term success. Once Reynolds’ deal is over, Trumbo could slide over to 1B.
Comment by Stuck in a slump — December 13, 2012 @ 6:01 pm
Seeing as the Royals seem to be trying to make a run and GMDM is hearing about his Frency love, I could see tthe Royals making a run at Bourjos (and moving Cain to right) or Trumbo. Not sure exactly what it would take, but they still have bullets left to fire (though probably not ML ready starters unless LA wants Santana back or has interest in Chen/Hochevar) if they really want to go all in for the short term.
The Mariners fan in me says trade them all and get not that much in return. If I were the GM though, I would get rid of Morales as he’s about done and Bourjos can be a defensive replacement late in the innings and can play the outfield when Hamilton gets hurt like he does almost every year. I wouldn’t trade Trumbo as he may turn into an all star caliber player.
Comment by Average_Casey — December 13, 2012 @ 6:12 pm
“The days of every successful team having 35 homer guys in both right and left field are long gone.”
Not for the Angels if they go Trout Left, Hamilton Right, Bourjos Center or Trout Center, Hamilton Left, Trumbo Right. The second one may end up having all 3 outfielders with 35+ HR. Not impossible.
If I was the angels, I would try to send a packaged deal of bourgous AND vernon wells to a rebuilding team that could take on salary (like houston or chicago), then use the money for vernon to sign someone like edwin jackson or anibal sanchez
Hamilton will play left or right which will greatly help his UZR, since he was a -12.6 in CF and a 0.2 in LF last year. The two previous years he was positive in LF as well in over 700 innings each year.
A trade within the division is unlikely, but the Mariners trading Paxton for Trumbo might make sense for both teams, even though Paxton is not MLB ready yet. If I were the Mariners I wouldn’t give up more than that, or at least anything significantly more than that.
And that is only if the Mariners can’t sign Swisher. Trumbo is a poor mans Nick Swisher. Same positions similar power numbers and avg, but Swisher has much better defense and OBP.
I imagine one of these guys will also be coupled with another young player. Maybe Conger…or Garrett Richards. Maybe Nick Maronde? I just can’t imagine the Mets doing a one for one swap with P-Bo for Dickey.
Either way I am sure Jerry Dipoto’s phone is ringing off the hook right now.
Am I crazy to say this…. play Trout in LF, Bourjos in RF, and Trumbo in CF? Would the range of Trout/Bourjos on both sides make up for the shitty CF?? Also.. in other news the As/Blue Jays will be acquiring Kendry Morales
Comment by Jim Lahey — December 13, 2012 @ 8:57 pm
Unless Bourjos learns to get on base, Wells still has considerably more negative value than Bourjos has positive (in other words, if someone would take both Wells and Bourjos and give nothing in return, the Angels should jump on it). It can’t hurt to try though.
Perhaps they could find some team to fall for Wells, Bourjos, AND Morales in exchange for nothing?
No one is taking Vernon’s money. $42m over the next two years? The Halos would need to virtually all of that even if they threw in Boujos and got virtually nothing back.
Ask yourself this – “If the Cubs will really pay $26m of Alfonso’s $36m remaining money and accept the likes of Dominic Brown in return, how much of Vernon’s money are you going to have to pony up even if you throw in Boujos?” He’s had a combined .258/.409/.667 line over the last two years. Anybody think he’s getting significantly better as he gets older?
There’s no possibility of “using his money” for anything except paying Vernon, although I suppose if you threw in Mike Trout somebody might take on VW’s money.
Really enjoy reading your work Dave – thanks man! Keep it up.
Comment by Paul Wilson — December 13, 2012 @ 9:15 pm
Yah he is. MARK IT.
Comment by HalosPhan — December 13, 2012 @ 9:17 pm
Kinda like this, but that is now an inter-divisional trade.
Comment by HalosPhan — December 13, 2012 @ 9:17 pm
Trout just hit 30 homers as a rookie. You’re probably right that he won’t hit as many next year, but after that he’ll only get better at the plate and stronger. His isn’t the power hitter Harper will be or Stanton is obviously, and his value will come from AVG, OBP and doubles, but don’t count him out. Trout has 40-40 potential. We may never see it, but it is certainly a bet I would take.
Comment by dzburnham — December 13, 2012 @ 9:19 pm
Mariners are a prime example. They might jump at taking on some of Well’s contract if Trumbo was involved. Unfortunately, it is inner-division and the M’s don’t really have the big league starting pitching the Angels need. Will never happen…
Comment by dzburnham — December 13, 2012 @ 9:28 pm
Why would the Astros want an expiring Kendry Morales?
Trumbo has more power and potential.. but the Angels are in win-now mode, so no go on Paxton or any of the big 3, even though the Angels are digging a hole for the future. I still would rather have Swisher’s veteran, now presence than Trumbo’s potential…
Comment by dzburnham — December 13, 2012 @ 9:30 pm
Why not? He was 5 short last year, missed a month of the season, and is now a year closer to his prime…
Wells is not quite a sunk cost yet. In fact, his slash line would start on many teams in baseball, just not a contending team haha. He’s trash for the Angels, and anyone with that ridiculous contract, but since he has it, you might as well have a chance at a pinch hit home run and average defense in case injury prone Morales and Hammy fall once more…
Comment by dzburnham — December 13, 2012 @ 9:33 pm
It will have to be a package of course, Bourjos and a top prospect. Bourjos is equal to a lower A, high B-level prospect. Won’t be an all-star, but could be a decent starter. Dickey will require at least another prospect to make it happen. But without doubt the Angels are working on it…
Comment by dzburnham — December 13, 2012 @ 9:35 pm
Not the A’s after they beat out the Angels this year, and why would you put those guys in the corner? Your defense has to be based around the CF, Trout stays there…
Comment by dzburnham — December 13, 2012 @ 9:36 pm
Hahaha. That’d be a fair trade if the Angels kicked in some cash! :)
Yeah, Hamilton and Morales both have durability issues. So it’s not hard to envision Borjous and Trumbo in the lineup together some days. If Big Mike is any kind of manager he should be able to find 500 ABs for all of Trumbo, Borjous and Morales.
The Angels are clearly a win-now team and most of their top prospects are blocked for the foreseeable future. I wonder if this is the team the Mets get their “monster” package from. Bourjos, Cron, Calhoun for Dickey and Wilmer Flores?
That might be true if there were more than one year left of Dickey’s contract. There are four years left of Bourjos – and he’s cheap, cheap.
Bourjos has put up 8.3 WAR in a season and a half of plate appearances. Dickey put up 4.6 WAR last season in the only season he’s ever delivered more than 3 WAR.
I’m surprised that posters on Fangraphs of all places would fail to understand defensive value. Bourjos truly has an elite glove in centerfield.
Comment by Turks Teeth — December 13, 2012 @ 10:38 pm
Eh, I’d still hold onto Wells, unless they can get some team to pay at least $4 Million/year or so of his salary. You can do worse for a 25th man – he hit very well against LHP as recently as 2011, and character-wise he can’t be beat (yes – I know, I know, but what I mean is he’d essentially be acting as a coach).
He can DH and pinch hit occasionally against lefties, fill in when an OF goes down, and be a good mentor. He was always one of my favorite players to hear speak.
Comment by Pedantic Bear — December 13, 2012 @ 11:10 pm
This is the much better reason why such a trade wouldn’t happen.
Comment by Pedantic Bear — December 13, 2012 @ 11:11 pm
It would make more sense to hide Trumbo in a corner and shift the other two over to cover more ground. Say, have Trumbo play RF a few steps closer to foul territory, have Trout stand almost in left-center and have Bourjos play a little closer to right. That way, the best defensive OF is still in a position to get to the most balls and the team is set up to take advantage of both Trout’s and Bourjos’ range.
Of course, with Hamilton this idea becomes fairly moot.
Another really crazy move (but potentially workable with an extreme groundballer on the ground) would be to play Trout in left-center, Bourjos in right-center and stick the nominal center fielder right behind the second base bag. Anything hit to the outfield would be trouble, but the five-man infield would be nearly impossible to sneak a grounder through and would probably even catch most low line drives.
How about Bourjos+Conger+SP(Williams/Richards) = David Price?
Comment by Rilke metro — December 13, 2012 @ 11:54 pm
From an Angels perspective I wouldn’t do Bourjos-Dickey.
Comment by Rilke metro — December 13, 2012 @ 11:54 pm
Why exactly? Bourjos was struggling to get at bats last season before the Hamilton signing. He has value to the Mets as a half-way decent CF. The Angels offense looks downright scary right now, but there are serious question marks past Weaver in that rotation. Dickey may be the piece that puts them over the top.
You’re absolutely right. Question is what in addition to Bourjos would DiPoto be willing to add. I’d be looking for Kole Calhoun and a pitcher, either Nick Maronde or Garrett Richards. Hold on . . I know that’s asking alot . . probably more than I should expect for just Dickey. So I’d be willing to add one or two of the Mets prospects to the mix. Also, to those who are concerned about years of control, remember that a deal for Dickey would probably come with a window to negotiate an extension, giving the Angels 3 years of control at the least.
Comment by John Smith — December 14, 2012 @ 12:32 am
So? it’s the Astros. who cares what division they’re in.
Comment by a seattle fan — December 14, 2012 @ 12:34 am
I don’t trust the Angels after Bavasi and Figgins.
Comment by a seattle fan — December 14, 2012 @ 12:37 am
This Orioles fan is lusting after Trumbo. He’s just what the O’s need, a young power hitting 1B/DH to replace the recently departed Mr. Strikeout+LowAverage. And they have excess starting pitchers. DD claims other teams value the O’s young pitchers, let’s see if he can pull off something….
The Angels or any team looking to trade guys of the caliber of Trumbo or Bourjos, guys with serious flaws who are still overall good players should have a major stumbling block in Texas. If I was running a major league team, I wouldn’t make any such trade until Texas sorted out what it was doing with the whole Andrus/Profar/Kinsler situation and Beltre/Olt/Moreland situation.
Really, an Upton for Andrus trade made too much sense not to happen. The only thing I can see is that they feel Leonys Martin can adequately handle cf and is ready for the majors. Or they are planning on moving one of the middle infielders there? But they need to do something to since they have too many major league ready ball players for two few positions.
For teams with holes in both the infield and outfield, it seems that Texas would still be the ideal trading partner. And for teams looking for outfielders, I’d definitely take a run at potential buy-cheap candidates like Upton (no way he’s going to ever sign another contract with Arizona) and Mike Stanton.
Obviously, Bourjos and Trumbo have value but the Angels seem more likely to extract it at the trade deadline, after some of the larger pieces have moved off the board. Though of course, stranger things have happened with trades in baseball, perhaps two or three times in the last month, as impatient teams look to “strike while the iron is hot.”
4 years of Bourjos. He’s a reasonably safe bet for 3 wins. That gives you 12 wins or $60M or so in value. His cost will most likely clock in at $15M or so. That’s $45M in surplus.
If you take on Wells and his entire contract and he does absolutely nothing for you you are out $42M.
So, Bourjos projected at 3 wins/season is roughly equivalent to DFA’ing Wells or keeping him on for limited pinch hitting duties. Obviously, if you think Bourjos is more likely a 4 WAR player than you are looking at $20M+ in surplus value even with absorbing Wells.
Not saying that a team should do that but I don’t think the idea is entirely crazy when you look at it from a value perspective.
I’ve never understood this desire to DFA guys either. You are already paying for him. As long as he isn’t a distraction and isn’t keeping somebody off the team let him ride the pine. He still has some value in a limited role.
The situation with AB’s hasn’t changed. Sure they brought in Hamilton but they swapped out Hunter. If anything, Bourjos could reasonably expect to get more AB’s given Hamilton’s injury history.
In any event – Bourjos projects to have somewhere (conservatively) near $25M worth of surplus value over his next 4 years. If the Angels sign Dickey there is little chance that he provides that same value. Dickey would need to be a 6 WAR pitcher. Not going to happen.
Now, if the Angels could extend Dickey at a reasonable rate (say 2/24) then the deal has the potential to be more equitable. As it stands now, the Angels lose on this deal when you talk about absolute value.
However, the deal makes a lot of contextual sense. The Mets don’t need Dickey’s 4 WAR 2013 season. They can drop in a replacement level pitcher and not have it impact their prospects for the post-season. The Angels are definitely in a win now mode. Given what both teams are facing for 2013, a deal like this makes sense. The Angels actually lose in overall value BUT they trade from a surplus and fix a glaring hole. The Mets are probably worse off in 2013 but it doesn’t matter much. They also have their starting CF’er for the next 3 years beyond that.
Hmm… Fangraphs LOVES Bourjos’ defense. For comparison’s sake, Bourjos has a career 4.2 WARP according to Baseball Prospectus. Both sites think his bat is crap; Baseball Prospectus doesn’t think his defense is as great as Fangraphs does. Not endorsing one over the other; just noting there are different takes on Bourjos’ value. That said, I think I’d prefer four years of Bourjos over one year of Dickey.
Comment by Dick Almighty — December 14, 2012 @ 1:33 am
Not even close to enough for Dave Price.
Comment by Dick Almighty — December 14, 2012 @ 1:42 am
There is no way that the Mets would give up Dickey for Bourjos alone. While Bourjos is a good young player, he really is a dime a dozen. There are more than enough players with his skill set out there for close to nothing. Is he capable of having some great years that would improve his value? Of course. But, he has not been given enough of an opportunity to show off his skills in Orange County, so his trade value should bring back maybe a number 4 or 5 pitcher, or a set up man.
Also, the Angels farm system is one of the worst in MLB, and it only got worse with the Greinke trade. I do not think they can get Dickey, but if they package some players together they might be able to get a decent number 3 type pitcher.
Comment by Adam Christian — December 14, 2012 @ 2:07 am
Trumbo for Arrieta?
Comment by Ivan Grushenko — December 14, 2012 @ 2:08 am
Trumbo for Vargas? Vargas does have 600 innings of above replacement starting pitching in the last 3 years. Swisher isn’t going to happen. I think nobody who hits for power will sign with the M’s again. Beltre/Sexton was the last.
Comment by Cleveland Cavs — December 14, 2012 @ 4:10 am
The presumption that Bourjos would play a corner with the Angels is a poor one. Trout would be moved into a corner. Bourjos is better defensively in every way, except perhaps how far over the fence Trout can get. There is a reason that Scioscia would shift Trout when he subbed Bourjos in for defense.
If they can pull value for Trumbo, the better deal for the Angels is to trade him and play Bourjos in CF. Probably want to put Trout in LF and Hamilton in RF, as Trout’s arm isn’t as good.
At best, Wells is insurance against nagging injuries.
But roster spots are limited and a 4A OF that can be shuttled in from the minors could give you what Wells does in case of injury.
It is a zero-sum game; every AB Wells gets comes at the expense of a better player.
Now, say you eat 90% of the salary, what team would take him and give him ABs? The Marlins, maybe. Not Houston, not Seattle, not the Cubs (if they’re bidding for Sanchez they’re dreaming of non-suckitude)…
If you can’t find a trade for even a minor league scrub and the guy offers you nothing of value…
Well, that’s what DFA is for.
It’s not as if “good guy” Wells is willing to be outrighted to AAA for the good of the team and be the 4A guy riding the shuttle.
Seriously, if you’re trying to win now, and your biggest goal was re-signing Greinke, why not make a winning bid for Price (subject to him signing an extension) and get some good young pitching depth in return.
Given how important CF defense is, I would imagine there will be several teams in the hunt for him. But he’s been rumored to be on the move for a while now. Angels should jump on the first offer of a serviceable starter they get for Bourjos. Dickey may be aiming a little high, but they should flip him for pitching. That rotation will be their undoing as it stands right now.
Comment by hernandez17 — December 14, 2012 @ 7:27 am
And with Shields gone, Price isn’t moving until Moore matures. It’s not like the Rays are rebuilding; they want to win now.
What the Angels need is a good number 3 pitcher.
Ideally another #2 but a 3 is the minimum. Could be a guy with a higher ceiling coming off a bad year (say Masterson) or it could be an older player on a short term run (Dickey/Garza-type).
Top choice might be a Sanchez who’ll “only” cost money.
Or if money is in fact an issue, an Edwin Jackson or a trade.
(It’s not as if the team was actually *bad* last year; the slow start just killed them.)
They do need some quality innings in the middle of the rotation so a workhorse would be a better fit than a younger pitcher.
On those terms, trading Bourjos just get the job done.
If the Mets just want an strong defensive CF who can’t hit, they can bring up Matt Den Dekker. He’s a lefty, but other than that trading for Bourjos would trading for something they believe they already have, even if he might be a year away.
The tricky part about this situation is the Mets could easily and would happily sign Dickey to a couple year extension for 12-13M/yr if they don’t get what they want, so from their perspective they’re giving up on three years of Dickey, yet the trade partners are probably only getting one year of him.
The Angels should sign Michael Bourn to go with their ensemble of CFs. When they play the A’s, I vote they play without fences and play slow pitch softball style. Both teams could put 5 CFs out there and really go and rob some deep shots.
Comment by Pinstripe Wizard — December 14, 2012 @ 8:47 am
Hey strikeouts worked for the A’s last season.
Comment by Pinstripe Wizard — December 14, 2012 @ 8:50 am
Can we change it to a batting tee to be named later accompanied with a Tom Emanski/Fred McGriff video?
Comment by Pinstripe Wizard — December 14, 2012 @ 8:56 am
I’d pay for that! Hell, I’d even go to a game in Oakland for that!!!
Rays would be mildly interested, though probably more so in Morales. That would give them Zobrist (S), Longoria (R), Morales (S – left side best), Joyce (L), Jennings (R) and Morales could DH most days.
I don’t know what Morales contract is or years, but isn’t he a FA next year? If so, don’t expect too much back.
Comment by Frank Sinatra — December 14, 2012 @ 9:48 am
Minor point here, but Quintin Berry does not have CF defense skills. Takes horrible routes, but his speed allows him to make some spectacular catches that should have been routine. SSS defensive metrics agree with me.
I don’t know if it would be great, but it would not be terrible. Dickey is a one year rental who appears to be willing to extend his contract for 2/26m. Bourjos has 4 years left on his contract and is a very good player. Dickey isn’t a sure thing and such a trade could work out well for Mets.
Comment by philosofool — December 14, 2012 @ 10:14 am
I think this deal works for both teams. Arrieta certainly still has worlds of potential, but the rotation is soon to be very crowded in Baltimore with Bundy and Gausman on their way. The Halos aren’t going to get a better pitcher than this for Trumbo, but if they can get Dickey or similiar in a deal that includes Trumbo, Bourjos, Morales, I think they would go this route instead.
Bourjos for Mike Minor. Roll the Dice on Teheran and Delgado as your #4 and #5 knowing Beachy will come in to save the day midseason if necessary.
Comment by Bob LobLaw — December 14, 2012 @ 11:39 am
Borjous can fill the role of a 4th OF just fine, he’s inexpensive still. A defensive replacement for Trumbo late in games and some starts when Hamilton needs days off or DH days. Morales will be the most day DH.
And that leaves Wells rotting on the bench… The Angels are probably wise to just hold only everyone unless a trade blows them away. Hopefully the Mets don’t get stupid and offer Dickey for Borjous and Conger.
One is a Cy Young winning starting pitcher who has a sub 3.00 ERA over the past 3 years and pitched 235 innings in 2010, 208.2 in 2011, and 233.2 in 2012. He also is the only pitcher in baseball with a 0% risk for Tommy John surgery.
The other is a speedy outfielder who has been below average offensively over the course of his career, and missed 38% of games his team played in 2012 while putting up an atrocious sub .300 OBP.
His point was that Bourjos has only recorded about 1.5 full seasons of plate appearances in the last three years, and in that time he has accumulated 8.3 fWAR. Obviously that isn’t sustainable, but his per-plate-appearance production has been exceptional.
Vernon Wells would be a great DH for the Seattle Mariners or Peter Bourjos and Kendry Morales at outfield as they can use some help on offense. Angels can alone address the need at relief pitching by acquiring Erasmo Ramirez, starting pitcher James Paxton, infielder Alex Liddi or Brendan Ryan, and a player to be named later.
Comment by John Rhee — December 15, 2012 @ 8:53 pm