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  1. But Bourjos is white and Maybin is black, so this just won’t work.

    Comment by BillWallace — December 14, 2012 @ 1:20 pm

  2. NBADraft.net would not approve.

    Comment by Andrew — December 14, 2012 @ 1:24 pm

  3. It’s all moot if you’re convinced as I am that the Angels won’t trade him.

    Comment by AverageMeansAverageOverTime — December 14, 2012 @ 1:32 pm

  4. I have no qualms with any of the objective arguments for Bourgos. But when your $500k house has been for sale for a year and a half, you need to realize that the market just doesn’t think your house is worth $500k.

    Comment by indyralph — December 14, 2012 @ 1:37 pm

  5. The liberal elite may not want to admit it, but white people HAVE historically been at a disadvantage.

    Comment by Rush Limbaugh — December 14, 2012 @ 1:42 pm

  6. This comment is awesome.

    Comment by Mr. Barfman — December 14, 2012 @ 1:46 pm

  7. Go get him Frank Wren.

    Comment by Makes it Difficult for Everyone — December 14, 2012 @ 1:46 pm

  8. Yeah but is Maybin real black or cornball black?

    Comment by drewcorb — December 14, 2012 @ 1:47 pm

  9. It’s interesting because (I think) the point of this article was to make us think that Bourjos is better than we thought, but my takeaway is that Maybin is worse than I thought. I had no clue he was a sub-.400 slugger who doesn’t get on base much.

    As for Bourjos, the main problem is that his skillset just isn’t highly valued in trades or on the open market. He’s not going to be the centerpiece in a deal for Dickey, for instance. Look at the market for someone like Bourn. If he put up the same exact WAR over the last 3-4 years, but it was based more on hitting and less on CF defense, he’d have signed a megacontract by now. As is, executives don’t value CF defense the way that WAR does.

    Comment by vivalajeter — December 14, 2012 @ 1:52 pm

  10. I think the most surprising thing about this is that they have 9-10% HR/FB ratios for their careers (and playing in pitchers parks). Some guys in that range in 2012:
    Joe Mauer
    Adrien Gonzalez
    Mike Moustakis
    Brett Lawrie

    Comment by TKDC — December 14, 2012 @ 1:56 pm

  11. “an historical”

    BAD DAVE!! BAD!!

    Comment by tyke — December 14, 2012 @ 1:57 pm

  12. That I’m agreeing with a man named “Mr. Barfman” makes me want to vomit.

    Comment by mysteryteam — December 14, 2012 @ 1:57 pm

  13. Why?

    Comment by TKDC — December 14, 2012 @ 1:58 pm

  14. Aren’t you the guy that said “Feminism is a means by which unattractive women gain easier access to mainstream society?”

    Comment by Rachel Maddow — December 14, 2012 @ 1:58 pm

  15. I wonder if the Phils offered Worley and Mays to LAA for Bourjos?

    Comment by Dave S — December 14, 2012 @ 2:02 pm

  16. Good point, which is why I’d be more tempted to try to trade Trumbo or (preferably) Morales because either could actually be part of a package for a pretty decent pitcher but end up being no more valuable next year.

    Bourjos’s defense–at least as far as Fld shows–was actually below his norm in 2011, his one full year. If he can recreate those hitting numbers AND have a full season of his best defense, he could be a 6 WAR player. Even if he only hits .250/.310/.400, he’s at around 4 WAR – which is about the very best we could expect from Trumbo or Morales.

    On the other hand, I’d be sad to see Trout leave CF to play LF. Trout as a CFer makes his overall package sexier; he goes from being a 7 WAR All-Star in left to a 9 WAR dynamo in center.

    Comment by Angelsjunky — December 14, 2012 @ 2:04 pm

  17. Lesbian.

    Comment by Rush Limbaugh — December 14, 2012 @ 2:20 pm

  18. that is correct

    Comment by Erik — December 14, 2012 @ 2:23 pm

  19. Einhorn is Finkel!

    Finkel is Einhorn!

    Comment by andys — December 14, 2012 @ 2:31 pm

  20. Looks fine to me

    Comment by Ivan Grushenko — December 14, 2012 @ 2:35 pm

  21. Willie, Carl or Joe?

    Comment by Ivan Grushenko — December 14, 2012 @ 2:36 pm

  22. Dont Frank. The Braves need an impact bat in LF, not another slap hitter. Bourjos would lose a ton of value being put in LF. There’s no chance the Braves are moving Upton to LF.

    Comment by Chad — December 14, 2012 @ 2:45 pm

  23. Are you sure? the ‘H’ in historical is hard, unlike the ‘H’ in honor.

    It’s an honor…
    It’s a historical fact…

    An is only used before vowels, “an apple” while A is used in front of consonants that are pronounced (a soft H isn’t, but a soft J is) “a grape”.

    I’m not one to be a grammar Nazi, but I think tyke is right.

    Comment by Stuck in a slump — December 14, 2012 @ 2:56 pm

  24. Then who is Peter Bourjos?

    Not Vernon Wells trying to make us think he’s not really Vernon Wells, right?

    Comment by chuckb — December 14, 2012 @ 2:56 pm

  25. I meant who is Cameron Maybin. Epic joke fail!

    That thud you heard is me dropping the mic and running off the stage to go and drown my sorrows.

    Comment by chuckb — December 14, 2012 @ 2:58 pm

  26. There are a couple of important differences between Maybin and Bourjos, for the purpose of projecting what they are likely to do in the next couple of years. They are both 25 years old. Maybin has been a full-time player for two years, and is about a year ahead of Bourjos in major league experience. He’s also taller. Maybin’s IsoP on the road so far is .137, which isn’t great but PETCO makes it look worse than it actually is. The view that Maybin is more likely to have league-average or better power than Bourjos going forward has some decent objective basis.

    Comment by Mike Green — December 14, 2012 @ 3:04 pm

  27. I still think Bourjos is the best defender I’ve ever seen in the outfield sans Andruw Jones, so I think +24 in CF for a full season is very possible every year.

    Comment by Stringer Bell — December 14, 2012 @ 3:22 pm

  28. Very well put. This is why the Angels should just hold on to Bourjos. They’re never going to get equal value for the guy. If you can swap Mark Trumbo for a solid #4ish starting pitcher, and I think you probably can, pull the trigger and call it a day.

    Comment by Robbie G. — December 14, 2012 @ 3:23 pm

  29. Cameron Maybin and Peter Bourjos are a lot alike. They are both terrible hitters. As far as I am concerned Maybin is still a bust. Both are 4th outfielders.

    Comment by JT — December 14, 2012 @ 3:30 pm

  30. The Braves need someone to help their offense, not make it worse. The very last thing they need is a lead-off hitter who doesn’t get on base.

    Comment by JT — December 14, 2012 @ 3:33 pm

  31. Not everyone pronounces the ‘aitch in ‘istory. Dave’s Cockney roots are showing through.

    Comment by joser — December 14, 2012 @ 3:37 pm

  32. There are some implicit assumptions that may not be sound. It’s a three year sampel referred to, but in 2/3 years Bourjos has <200 PA. So, he's had one good year, and two years where he has had limited PA and hasn't hit well. Maybin, on the other hand, hit poorly in year one but was stronger in the most recent two years. For projection purposes I'd say that seems like Bourjos' results are more prone to volatility.

    Comment by grant — December 14, 2012 @ 3:51 pm

  33. I thought a lot of people were actually upset Maybin wasn’t doing better by now? Not sure if that’s the best comparison…

    Comment by Ruki Motomiya — December 14, 2012 @ 4:11 pm

  34. Billie

    Comment by Cliff — December 14, 2012 @ 4:24 pm

  35. Didn’t Bourjos play most of last year with a hip injury? If so, that might of hindered his production.

    Comment by Colin — December 14, 2012 @ 4:25 pm

  36. hahaha.

    Comment by jfree — December 14, 2012 @ 4:38 pm

  37. Right now sure, but in the next 5 years I expect Bourjos to blossom while Maybe will be an average starter.

    Comment by Alex — December 14, 2012 @ 4:39 pm

  38. Even more interesting is that both parlayed pretty good 2011s (4.5 WAR each) into more-or-less disappointing 2012s (Bourjos to injury, Maybin to ineffectiveness and minor injuries).

    I can’t speak for Bourjos, but I do like Maybin’s production going forward. As it was covered here, Maybin revitalized himself around the end of June last season and posted above-average wRC+’s for the rest of the season. The strikeouts were down to the high-teens (walks dropped as well, unfortunately).

    Ultimately, I don’t think Maybin ever develops into the super-prospect he was expected to be, but I think he could be an above-average CFer, with great speed and good defense, and the possibility to add some power as his body fills out.

    Comment by Drew — December 14, 2012 @ 4:54 pm

  39. ….trying to convince people that a player is deceptively good by showing that he is a carbon copy of a player who is deceptively bad might not be the best approach.

    …this must be some Pacific Northwest affliction, loving players who can’t hit, but can catch the ball real well. …I would think years of rooting for the Mariners would make one despise these types of players. Wasn’t it more fun back in the days when you had Griffey, Edgar, Buhner, Tino, BabyRod, et al. blasting balls to all reaches of the King Dome? I even liked watching those teams as a Yankees fan (except for the last meaningful game 0f ’95).

    Comment by Jason H. — December 14, 2012 @ 4:55 pm

  40. Yup, either is acceptable. Same deal with “hotel”. I don’t know why, though.

    Comment by Colm — December 14, 2012 @ 4:57 pm

  41. This reads like a crusty “You pesky young writers with your ‘facts’ and ‘analysis’… I prefer my own gut feelings to your so-called ‘logic'” response. Do you really mean that?

    Comment by Colm — December 14, 2012 @ 5:09 pm

  42. I agree. And I’ve seen Maybin strikeout or make weak contact so many times I want my money back. I’d rather have Bourjos.

    Comment by Fiery Furnaces — December 14, 2012 @ 5:16 pm

  43. This confirmed my gut: I’d probably take Bourjos over Maybin, by a hair (all pay being equal). But I think the real takeaway is that CF don’t hit very well as a group. In fact, it’s QUITE hard to get an average-defense CF who will give you much at the plate.

    Would you believe that Bourjos is the 16th best hitter at CF over the last two years by wRC+? (among guys with at least 400 PA) Right between Jon Jay and Denard Span, in fact. And he’s top 25 by wOBA at in the same list (which should be taken with a grain of salt, as guys like Mayberry somehow have 400 PA and Fangraphs lists them as CF?).

    Basically, it’s safe to say that Bourjos is likely the best defensive CF and is within the top 15-25 hitters at the position. It just happens to be that CF is a position that kind of sucks at hitting compared to other spots not named SS or C.

    Comment by B N — December 14, 2012 @ 5:22 pm

  44. No, it’s more like, “You pesky writer, you have always overrated a player so you now come up with all kinds of reasons to make people think he is better than he is”.

    btw, I wouldn’t be reading this site if I was someone who thought “gut feelings” were more important than facts.

    Bourjos had a wRC+ of 72 last year. Why would anyone trade anything of value for that?

    Comment by JT — December 14, 2012 @ 5:36 pm

  45. Exactly. Maybin was projected to be some sort of superstar and so far he has been a bust. Not sure why he was used for comparison purposes, other than to say Bourjos isn’t that good either.

    Comment by JT — December 14, 2012 @ 5:38 pm

  46. It’s ahistorical?

    Perhaps it’s an historical occasion when he decided not to confuse ourselves by confusing ourselves.

    Comment by Jake Squid — December 14, 2012 @ 6:20 pm

  47. lol

    Comment by BillWallace — December 14, 2012 @ 6:24 pm

  48. Cameron Maybin is 6’3 and 210 lbs.

    Peter Bourjos is 6’1 and 185lbs (and plays like 5’9″ 170lbs).

    Comment by FYI — December 14, 2012 @ 6:29 pm

  49. You forgot to finish your thoughts JT

    “Bourjos had a wRC+ of 72 last year … which is very understandable being a pinch hitter and used infrequently. Of course, his one full year where he started he managed to put up a wRC+ of 113. This aligns with what you would expect given his minor league track record.”

    “As far as I am concerned Maybin is still a bust. [He is] a 4th outfielder … on any team that is stacked with 3 stud outfielders. The guy has averaged 3.5 WAR over the past 2 years. That’s within spitting distance of BJ Upton who just signed that massive contract.”

    Hopefully that helps out. You must have been distracted when you wrote the comments above.

    Comment by BJsWorld — December 14, 2012 @ 6:34 pm

  50. because 4 of the 8.3 WAR he has amassed in 940 PAs comes from his outstanding defense? or how about just “he has amassed 8.3 WAR in 940 PAs”?

    Comment by tom s. — December 14, 2012 @ 6:35 pm

  51. This article isn’t whether Maybin is a superstar or if he has reached his potential. Here the discussion is simply about value. Having a pre-arb guy who is more than capable of replicating Maybin’s performance makes Bourjos quite valuable.

    Comment by BJsWorld — December 14, 2012 @ 6:35 pm

  52. Hey Rachel, aren’t you the one going on television and explaining to all of your peace-loving Zio-Commie terrorist viewers why the sovereign government of Syria and its legitimate ruler, Bashir al-Assad, needs to be killed and his supporters murdered so that an IMF-controlled central bank can be installed in Syria just like de facto President Soetoro and his NWO rump ranger buddies did to Qaddafi in Libya?

    Oh, what’s that? You don’t mention that part about the central banking scam? Yeah, that might blow your cover, you rotten Jewess.

    Comment by Dead Syrians At the Hands of Washington-funded Terrorists — December 14, 2012 @ 6:50 pm

  53. I don’t think you’re correct when you say that executives don’t value CF defense the way WAR does. In fact, wouldn’t a SABR friendly executive be exactly the type who understands that defense typically peaks early, during the pre- and arbitration years, and the reason Bourn sits on the market isn’t necessarily the failing of the market to recognize Bourn’s value but rather explained by a GM acquiring the same skillset at a much, much cheaper price on the farm?

    Put another way: Is Bourn’s projectible value added worth the premium paid to acquire him? IDK…

    Comment by cable fixer — December 14, 2012 @ 7:13 pm

  54. JT a guys value comes from far more than his pure hitting. Maybin is a far cry from a bust! 2.7 WAR is solid. For reference Ichiro was worth exactly the same WAR in 100 more at bats in 2012. Car Gonzalez of the Rockies was worth exactly the same 2.7 War. Shin So0 choo, Justin Upton and Cutis Granderson were all worth a hair less with more at bats than Maybin. If you do not agree then go click on leaders the OF and then go to the second page. You will find all these names as mentioned.

    Comment by Nats Fan — December 14, 2012 @ 8:45 pm

  55. Agreed. Bourjos could prove to be the better player, but Trumbo has greater market value.

    Comment by Jon L. — December 14, 2012 @ 9:45 pm

  56. sorry… excuse me for the typo and adding an “s”. really… is this the best use of your time asswipes? (or is that asswipe?)

    Comment by Dave S — December 14, 2012 @ 10:32 pm

  57. and Cliff… if I was going Billie… it’d be Billie Letts, not Billie Mays.

    Comment by Dave S — December 14, 2012 @ 10:36 pm

  58. Revere is more valuable at this point than Bourjos.

    Comment by Nik — December 14, 2012 @ 10:47 pm

  59. So vivalajeter, I’m with you on the comparison making me downmark Maybin more than upmark Bourjos. Maybin does have the burden of swatting the ball in Petco, but that said he’s only managed to be a regular for two years, only one of which was even decent with the bat, after years of floundering at the plate.

    I, however, _do_ have some problems with the analysis. A three-year aggregated for Bourjos does seem good on the surface, but in this case it subtlely (deliberately?) conceals the most salient issue regarding Bourjos: he’s had wildly different results over three years, so no one really knows who he is as a hitter. His first time up he had a few knowks in under 200 ABs to make the ISO look good, but otherwise looked like the low-BB, high-K guy he has always been, minors and majors. Bourjos had quite a good year with his skillset in 2011 as a regular, supporting real value. Bourjos couldn’t his half his weight in 2012, and lost most of that power two as well as any spot in the regular line up.

    So: are we just to ignore Bourjos’ miserable 2012 and draw a meaningless trend or an obfuscatory mean through Pete’s performance? Well, _I_ wouldn’t do that. It is at least as probable to consider that the league has figured how to pitch Bourjos and that he’ll never turn in that ‘don’t know me yet’ ISO again. Bourjos is entering his age-26 season to, so while one might anticipate he’ll get the upside of his skillset for the next 3-4 years, one also has to consider he is unlikely now to significantly change that skillset. Anyone acquiring Bourjos should pay for the under on his offensive projection if they’re sane, which is exactly why no one has ponied up top talent for the guy yet. Getting Maybin isn’t exactly appealing given what Maybin does when not wearing a glove, and nobody wants to get a righty Jeremy Reed even if the guy can actually field CF.

    Bourjos as a glove-mostly player has real value, ’cause his is a good one. An org with a strong offensive 25 man but short on outfielders could find a lot of value in Peter Bourjos, batting him 8-9, putting him in CF, and forgetting about the rest, for sure. And there are teams around the league who fit that. So, I have a comp that to me fits Bourjos even better: Cesar Geronimo. That guy was valuable too, for a few years. But ouside of his brief, early peak in his early 20s Geronimo never hit a lick either. Be warned, buyers: buy the walk, not the talk.

    Comment by Balthazar — December 14, 2012 @ 11:30 pm

  60. The Rockies should try to acquire Bourjos. Their best strategy almost certainly involves having multiple centerfielders playing at Coors. They would be positioned to extract maximum defensive value from him.

    Comment by Nate — December 15, 2012 @ 12:59 am

  61. who wants Bourjos enough to give the Angels anything that they would want or need for him?

    not only is the no shortage of people who play a good CF but don’t hit at al, but the Angels clearly HAVE to trade an outfielder so they have little leverage…..and they don’t need anything much other than a front-end starter and a closer.

    there’s hardly any chance that Bourjos is gonna secure that for them.

    they just might be forced to trade Trumbo for a starter.

    Comment by fuster — December 15, 2012 @ 1:21 am

  62. So Nate, I agree, the Rockies are one of the best matches for dealing Bourjos. He’d be extremely valuable in center there. Swap some of their not so #1 pitcher pick-ups from Cleveland a year ago for him, the Halos at least get an arm. But if the Angels want to trade him at his 2011 value or forget it, it’s already forgotten.

    Comment by Balthazar — December 15, 2012 @ 2:19 am

  63. Bring back Reggie Willits.

    Comment by iallm — December 15, 2012 @ 7:15 am

  64. The Angels should keep Bourjos and trade Trumbo, who’s value probably won’t get any higher than it is right now. That suspect pitching staff would be helped a lot by having two elite OF defenders plus Aybar at SS and Kendrick at 2b.

    Comment by Brett — December 15, 2012 @ 9:22 am

  65. Agreed. It makes more sense (to me) for the Rockies to trade for Bourjos than to trade away Fowler. More than any other team, they could use exceptional OF play. It would ease the burden on their entire overtaxed pitching staff, which I’d prioritize over adding another arm. Don’t know if they have what Angels want in return. Colvin or Cuddyer could be moved in a separate deal, if that helps.

    Comment by itch — December 15, 2012 @ 10:59 am

  66. I don’t see how this comment is awesome. Dave was arguing that the players are in fact the same in value. He was implicitly criticizing the fact that they are not so regarded.
    I’d say the comment is irrelevant.

    Comment by Baltar — December 15, 2012 @ 1:09 pm

  67. I loved your comment until you used that awful, used-up “not named” cliche.
    I still like it a lot.

    Comment by Baltar — December 15, 2012 @ 1:13 pm

  68. Colm has the right answer.
    Shame on Tyke for even making his comment.

    Comment by Baltar — December 15, 2012 @ 1:17 pm

  69. I knew someone who didn’t actually read Dave’s article would bring up Petco.
    Dave used wRC+, which is adjsted for park, for his offensive comparison.

    Comment by Baltar — December 15, 2012 @ 1:21 pm

  70. A lot of people are idiots. Many of them think that a flat Earth is the center of the universe and that the moon landing was fake.

    Comment by Baltar — December 15, 2012 @ 1:26 pm

  71. Those dead Syrians have a point.

    Comment by CIA Operative — December 15, 2012 @ 5:03 pm

  72. Oh really Nats Fan? Darwin Barney had a 2.5 WAR. Oh, that’s right, he’s a Cub and isn’t a saber darling like Bourjos & Maybin.

    Maybin still sucks at baseball. WAR completely overrates defense and is dependant on horrific defensive metrics. Enjoy those 500+ outs every year …

    Comment by Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics — December 15, 2012 @ 9:34 pm

  73. If by “quite valuable” you mean not valuable at all, then you’re exactly right. You might was well have the pitcher hit for himself.

    Comment by Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics — December 15, 2012 @ 9:36 pm

  74. They can get Dickey right now for Trumbo if they wanted, but they don’t

    Comment by EDUB — December 16, 2012 @ 6:32 am

  75. …Dustin Pedroia is also 5’9″. …in baseball, 5’9″ is the equivalent of a “gentleman’s C” at Harvard.

    Comment by Jason H — December 16, 2012 @ 11:06 am

  76. …reading comprehension not so good….

    Comment by Jason H — December 16, 2012 @ 11:07 am

  77. I give you the key to the city knowing full well that what you are about to do will end everything we know and cherish

    Comment by Sorinson Soriano — December 16, 2012 @ 11:54 pm

  78. The queen’s english leaves the h-vowel started words up for the “an” since usually they don’t pronounce the h.

    Comment by Tyler — December 17, 2012 @ 12:39 pm

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