FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Profundo.

    Comment by therood — December 17, 2012 @ 10:17 am

  2. For reference, Justin Henry is now property of the Red Sox.

    Comment by theroundsquare — December 17, 2012 @ 10:26 am

  3. could be that the crowd is pretty accurate for the smaller and shorter deals, but for the bigger deals either the crowd is underestimating the teams expected revenue windfall from new TV deals or the teams themselves are overestimating it. I suspect the teams probably better understand their likely revenue 3-5 years down the road better than the fans.

    Comment by Dan — December 17, 2012 @ 10:43 am

  4. Marginal players usually get about what people think they are worth because there are a lot of them and if you don’t get one, you can usually trade non-top prospects for one, but star players usually get more because there are only a select few and teams that want them are scared of missing out. It was clear from when these results came out that it was too conservative at the top. I think the overestimations at the bottom might be a result of believing inflation was going to just be huge with the TV contract stuff.

    Comment by TKDC — December 17, 2012 @ 10:47 am

  5. I think it is too many people who put down what they think a player should get instead of what they think he will get.

    Comment by TKDC — December 17, 2012 @ 10:49 am

  6. He has it stamped below his ear.

    Comment by Well-Beered Englishman — December 17, 2012 @ 10:57 am

  7. Despite the big splashes by the Blue Jays, Angels and Dodgers; I really believe this off-seasons ‘gold star for savvy’ should go to Kevin Towers of the Diamondbacks.

    This article highlights they scored two good players for a mediocre-player price – Eric Chavez and Brandon McCarthy. A price that is clearly below the expectations of most casual (and non-casual) fans. McCarthy, is only getting about one million and change more than pitchers like Scott Baker. In addition, via trade they filled their SS need with a great defensive player and grabbed Heath Bell while having the Marlins suck up over 8mil and 45% of their financial obligations to him.

    Their ripples in this off seasons market aren’t as bold as other teams, but possibly more savvy, certainly they have scored more value for the price they have paid.

    (Two points for the post-script: 1) I’m not a Diamondbacks fan, so no unjustified bias, and 2) I’m shrugging off the Bauer trade as Towers knows something non-insiders do not.

    Comment by Angus Archer — December 17, 2012 @ 11:36 am

  8. Carson, your averages seem to be off. The sum of the crowd sourced years differential is exactly 0.0. We projected 72 total contract years and 72 years were awarded.

    While the AAV differential in -$20.5 indicating we were way low on AAV overall.

    Comment by Pirates Hurdles — December 17, 2012 @ 12:05 pm

  9. They got rid of Chris Young for Heath Bell and traded Bauer for Gregorious. That is stupid.

    Comment by Brian — December 17, 2012 @ 12:07 pm

  10. First off Chris Young is terrible – on all metrics. He just can’t get on base.

    They traded Chris Young for Heath Bell AND Cliff Pennington. They were planning on moving an OF (since they are loaded with OF prospects and young players). It was why they had Justin Upton on the market, because they thought they could get the most value from him. It is because of Cliff P., and getting their defensive SS, they were able to pull Justin Upton off the market this season. That is a win, I would say.

    I put the Bauer Astrix in my initial comment. Moving Bauer was something that Towers could not do alone. He would have had to go through the ownership, which leads me to believe there was inside information involved here.

    Comment by Angus Archer — December 17, 2012 @ 12:22 pm

  11. For what it’s worth, Venezuelan hitting celebrity Luis Jimenez is now a Toronto Blue Jay. May have picked a savvy time to jump the Mariner ship.

    Comment by Gus — December 17, 2012 @ 1:11 pm

  12. All in all, those differences are tiny. The crowd did a great job.

    Comment by Baltar — December 17, 2012 @ 1:17 pm

  13. Yeah, Chris Young is only terrible if the only thing you care about is the OBP thing. It’s a big deal, sure, but the elite defense in center and the pop in the bat make him far from terrible, since he’s been above average the last three years.

    Comment by Purple — December 17, 2012 @ 1:29 pm

  14. An addendum – getting on base is in fact really important. Chris Young will never be a star because he can’t do it enough. But that does not preclude him from being a really valuable piece to a team, and far from terrible. I’m not trying to downplay the importance of not making outs.

    Comment by Purple — December 17, 2012 @ 2:21 pm

  15. Apart from underestimating AAV on the largest contracts (see TDKC above), I agree the crowd did very well. Averages of years will always be off some, because there’s no such thing as a fractional-year contract; the results look even better with appropriate rounding.

    Comment by Mr Punch — December 17, 2012 @ 2:22 pm

  16. Is the code bar or QR?

    Comment by joser — December 17, 2012 @ 9:59 pm

  17. I think you mean Luis Rodriguez.

    Comment by virginie lebeau — December 18, 2012 @ 1:55 am

  18. Agreed. It seems like lots of people were voting for what they’d give the player rather than predicting the final contract based on what the market would dictate.

    Comment by subtle — December 18, 2012 @ 12:03 pm

  19. You mean the same ownership group who was openly criticizing Upton last season?

    Comment by subtle — December 18, 2012 @ 12:10 pm

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