FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. This is beyond me, but presumably someone could convert those odds into a win-loss projection, right? That shouldn’t be too hard?

    Comment by Neil — December 18, 2012 @ 10:19 am

  2. I rather think it might be, when you start taking wildcards and so on into consideration: for example the Tigers might reasonably be expected to win fewer games than Texas but still be a shorter price for the WS.

    You’re asking to reverse-engineer the process; what odds-makers should be doing is starting with W/L records and working it out from there.

    I’ll have a go, though…

    Comment by Aaron (UK) — December 18, 2012 @ 10:32 am

  3. Yup, it’s too difficult to do in half an hour on Excel, that’s for sure.

    Howver, some additional percentages do fall out of the data:

    Sum (AL teams) = 52.41%
    Sum (NL teams) = 47.59%

    This doesn’t seem unreasonable.

    Sum (AL winner from Central) = 23.8% – so we can already see the “equal chance in the postseason hypothesis” can’t possibly be consistent with these odds

    Sum (AL winner from East) = 42.1%
    Sum (AL winner from West) = 34.2%

    Sum (NL winner from Central) = 27.7%
    Sum (NL winner from East) = 38.2%
    Sum (NL winner from West) = 34.2%

    In short the odds are expecting one wild card team from the East & the West in both leagues. This is hardly a massive shock.

    Comment by Aaron (UK) — December 18, 2012 @ 10:50 am

  4. Also, the author’s method for generating true prices (which sum to 100%) tends to over-penalise the good teams.

    My preference is to raise the raw probabilities to a power (which you find by trial and error). In this case it is c. 1.09645, and that, for example, leaves the Blue Jays at 8.99% and drops the Astros all the way to 0.30% [still not low enough, but…]

    Comment by Aaron (UK) — December 18, 2012 @ 11:01 am

  5. Is it possible to short-sell in sports markets? I can see the Dodgers’ odds being much lower in July.

    Comment by Well-Beered Englishman — December 18, 2012 @ 11:12 am

  6. Yes, on betfair, but not if you live in the States.

    Though there isn’t much liquidity there yet:

    Comment by Aaron (UK) — December 18, 2012 @ 11:23 am

  7. Yes, you can convert it. And yes, it will be hard if you want to create a formula for it. Easy if all you want to do is spit-ball it.
    vr, Xei

    Comment by Xeifrank — December 18, 2012 @ 11:37 am

  8. It would be interesting to see WAR projections for each teams next to the odds and Proj%.

    Comment by luke — December 18, 2012 @ 12:04 pm

  9. As of yesterday, Aneury Rodriguez is no longer an Astro. He agreed to a contract with the Samsung Lions of the KBO.

    Comment by El Vigilante — December 18, 2012 @ 2:28 pm

  10. Yam Gomes is not a blue jay. And thus ends irrational BJ fans’ thoughts that he was ‘awesome’.

    Comment by Bam! — December 18, 2012 @ 8:36 pm

  11. Can’t wait to bet the under on the Phils…

    Comment by will h — December 18, 2012 @ 9:18 pm

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