Aging curve says to deduct half a win each season, starting with 2013. So 1.5 WAR this year, 1 next and .5 in 2015. That’s 3 WAR for the reported 24 million. Factor in inflation and its not a gross over pay, but he still not worth 8 – 9 million per year based off of WAR.
I think it’s a big stretch to say that a Rivera/Morgan platoon is likely to replicate Ross’s production. Morgan had a wRC+ of 69 against right handers last year, much worse than Ross’s own number against right handers. The reason Morgan (or Rivera) could be had for cheap is they were horrible last year. Sure, Morgan was good in 2011, but judging by his declining baserunning ability, I’d say his days of putting up a .368 BABIP are over. I think the overall argument is flawed. Why would it be better to sign Hairston for 2/10 to platoon against lefties, then to just sign Ross? You still have to spend the money on the right handed half of that platoon, and you have 3-4 million before you get to Ross’s salary. Could you take a flyer on a Morgan? Yeah, but the value of Ross is he’s been consistent, and pretty much by definition a right-handed hitter who could be had for under $4 million is not someone who’s been consistent or good.
Comment by isavage30 — December 21, 2012 @ 1:34 pm
What’s he worth based on WAR, instead of off of it?
meant, left-handed hitter who could be had for under $4 million
Comment by isavage30 — December 21, 2012 @ 1:48 pm
Comment by snoop LION — December 21, 2012 @ 2:18 pm
Morgan still brings plus defense, doesn’t he? That’s the missing factor from this discussion, a platoon can bring not just better offense playing the match ups, but better defense if you get the right platoon partners.