As a long time reader of Fangraphs I truly respect you guys opinion a lot, So I am really curious on your take as to the trade off Girardi is making. Riding his premier pithcers the team has long term intrest in Burnett and CC. I know we play for championships but in your opinion is the motto win the ring and worry later? Could he be starting a trend that kind causes other teams who handle with care to reasses? Thanks for any reply and keep up the good writing.
Comment by Mike Ketchen — November 2, 2009 @ 11:36 am
Manuel’s confidence in Lidge in all likelihood would have been justified had Lidge gone with his best pitch – the slider. He did not throw a single one to Teixeira or ARod and all the baserunners reached base on fastballs.
Comment by longgandhi — November 2, 2009 @ 11:37 am
Joba threw one bad pitch. Lidge melted down.
Comment by Seideberg — November 2, 2009 @ 11:38 am
spot on dave, as several of your last articles have been.
i would have to put Lee vs Burnett at 60-40 for the phillies, probably very high as far as splits go, but the short rest for burnett + Lee being dominant makes me about as confident in a WS Game as i can get.
from a yankee hater perspective though, the next two games are solidly 55-45 yankees, especially as it should be only Sabbathia on short rest again, something that doesn’t seem to bother him over the short run. dont know about the home-road thing being a big deal (and not just because 3 out of 4 games to date have been road wins), between the small samplesize of the phillies having a better road record (and i think pythagorean record too?) as well as the unique dimensions of New Yankee stadium i’d treat each game as more or less neutral.
So to estimate, .6*.45*.45 = 12.1 chance for the phillies and 87.9% chance for the yankees.
Still, it’s why we watch the games right?
Comment by TheUnrepentantGunner — November 2, 2009 @ 11:42 am
lidge throws a large percentage of his sliders in the dirt. you can’t do that with a man on 3rd, which is why damon’s play was HUGE.
the biggest thing I notice about the game last night? These umps have NO CLUE where home plate is. Low corners in AND out of the strikezone were a 50/50 flip last night on if it was gonna get called or not.
Everything is a trade-off. The benefit of increased odds of winning it all are worth some extra risk. How much? That’s a preference thing, really. Add in the fact that the actual amount of risk that is being placed on the pitchers is tough to quantify, and it’s probably rational to lean towards the benefit and away from the cost.
Without better evidence that there’s a real cost to pitching on short rest, it’s the right call – especially for a team like the Yankees who can absorb an injured pitcher’s contract without a significant problem.
Pitches on the edges of zones are usually 50/50. The ump doesn’t have FoxTrack, but rather, has to make an instantaneous call on a ball thrown up to 98 MPH. I thought the ump was pretty consistent.
Comment by neuter_your_dogma — November 2, 2009 @ 12:02 pm
It is not “ONE” start per say, its the fact that for the first time in his career Burnett has gone over 200 IP back to back and further more he is now past any IP he has ever had. The point of my question was is this one championship wort it if is say hypothetically cost him +1WAR of value over the remaining life of the contract. It is strictly an opinion thing hence why I asked. But hey, if Burnett gets hurt next season I am sure you will simply be on here to point out how dumb the contract was for the Yanks given his injury riddled past.
Comment by Mike Ketchen — November 2, 2009 @ 12:02 pm
Thanks for the reply, great stuff as always.
Comment by Mike Ketchen — November 2, 2009 @ 12:02 pm
Did the Sox go with a 3 man rotation in there runs? (And I am a Sox fan not a Yanks fan btw) I think my point may be getting lost or perhaps I should have explained better. The way they are using CC and Mo and Burnett to shoulder most of the load goes against what has become common practice in the last few years with more pitchers being handled very carefully. All I wanted was opinion if it was logical for teams to make this trade off (one WS vs the remainder of contracts) that is all.
Comment by Mike Ketchen — November 2, 2009 @ 12:10 pm
but you are implying that before tonight, Girardi has “ridden” AJ Burnett.
he hasn’t. he’s simply made all of the scheduled starts that a #2 starter would make in a postseason where his team goes deep. before tonight, there was nothing “discretionary” about his usage.
it’s a good question with regards to CC, but i guess i was just confused when it came to AJ. in my opinion, he is only being “ridden” for one start.
Game 4 was riddled with “A-Rod is 1-11”, “A-Rod is 1-12” and “A-Rod is 1-13” in the world series talk. It’s too bad that 0-8 of A-Rod’s “slump” came in consecutive games, one of which was pitched by Cliff Lee, who shut down everyone except Derek Jeter in Game 1. How come nobody is ragging on Teixeira, who is hitting almost as bad as Nick Swisher? Can’t we lay off A-Rod, who has been an absolute beast in the post season outside of two games? No one has ever had 8 bad at bats in a row before, right?
I wonder if it does any good to mention that A-Rod had an “unclutch” 2-R HR in game 3 and game winning double in the top of the 9th today. I guess hitting in the clutch doesn’t count as being clutch. It’s all about being David Eckstein and hitting .400 with a .390 OBP and .400 SLG.
Cause you know, WPA is a made up stat created by nerds in their mother’s basements, right?
For the record, here is A-Rod’s WPA by game in the WS:
1: -.096 (Teixeira and Damon weren’t much better and Cliff Lee pitched an amazing game)
2: -.090 (Pedro, Howard, Damon and Utley were all worse; Werth had a -.087 WPA in game 2)
3: +.165 (third best amongst all players in game 4)
4: +.280 (second to only Pedro Feliz in game 4)
That’s a cumulative +.259 WPA in the World Series. Four of those = 1 win; by proxy, A-Rod’s .259 WPA showing over four games means that he’s helped the Yankees win one of them. Please Tim McCarver. Keep complaining.
He HAS to do that though no? It’s his pitch….the one that make him who he is today. You can bet he’s crying in his coffee this morning having not thrown it. If I’m going down, I’m going down with my best.
Joe Girardi’s best managerial decision came when he accepted the job as the manager of the highest salaried team in baseball. Not too many teams have 3 starters you can work like this to this kind of effect. All three are free agent signings.
We could then complain about malfunctioning robots. It would be fun.
As our blog’s mission statement says:
We are but four humble men who love sports, but hate sports commentary. Peter Gammons is our hero and John Madden is our enemy. If you were to ask us our purpose, our answer would be simple: “We are forever locked in Mortal Kombat for the souls of sports fans everywhere. Statistics are our science and ‘the immeasurable character of men’ is the obsolete religion of blind faith. Our job is to prove that God doesn’t exist and that athletes are merely cold, metal machines with no souls or heart.”
Do you guys really believe it’s up to Girardi to make those Do or Die decisions? Hank Steinbrenner would give one or both testicles (if he had them) to win the WS ring after spending all that money this season.
Comment by siul narud — November 2, 2009 @ 12:57 pm
b/c the count was full and he had yet to throw a slider for any sort of strike (swinging or called). don’t want to walk the guy in a 1 run game, and his fastball was HUMMING. he was blowing people away.
he missed inside. it happens.
(this comment is not directed at you) but sometimes bad things can happen without anyone deserving any “blame”. sometimes the hitter just beats you.
I’d be willing to never see Burnett pitch again to get a World Series Ring if I was the Yankee management.
My concern is that starting Burnett and Petite and Sabathia (again) on three days rest is a recipe for disaster.
He already threw 2 sliders before the fastball and none of them were close.
The fastball is a lot easier to control than the slider and you don’t want to walk the tying run with the go ahead run on deck.
“His fastball has been awful this yr”
That’s because he was a starter all year. He took off velocity as a starter and his fastball had a wFB of -21.0 as opposed to positive values the year before.
Again, it was all about location. How many times did T. McCarver yap about the inside corner as Feliz’s wheelhouse? The fastball needed to be elsewhere. He probably should have thrown it earlier in the count with 2 strikes instead of two consecutive sliders.
The Phillies fan in me is hoping that Lee out pitches AJ, Pettitte is too old to be effective against all of the Phillies LHB, and CC falls apart from exhaustion.
The realist is me isn’t so confident.
Comment by DavidCEisen — November 2, 2009 @ 2:42 pm
well the initial assumption wernet my actual numbers, just a way of saying that no one should be shocked (if the yankees were to win a season long series with the phillies 86-76) that the phillies would win a world series 43% of the time. Furthermore i explained that it doesnt matter which games Cole, Pedro, and Lee pitch but it matters more HOW MANY games they pitch, so those numbers were illustrative.
Furthermore, how heavily can you really factor starting pitching? Obviously pretty heavily, but maybe not as heavy as you think. The best season over the last 10 years was from Dave Cameron’s not-so-secret crush in 1999. That was a 10 win season over replacement. Over 36 starts how much does that really tilt the odds? Does that truly make 1999 pedro 22% more likely (8/36) than average to win a start he pitches? How do you quantify that world series games by definition are not average, with well above average lineups and typically opposing pitchers?
While we know that historically playing at home improves winning odds by 3%, we don’t know fully why, except that we are quite sure that a big piece of it is that savvy general managers build their teams around their park, even if their construction is misguided (see the mid 80’s cardinals).
What if it just so happens that the ideal park for the 2009 phillies just happens not to be CBP? What if the lineup (loaded with left handed power hitters) *really* enjoys hitting towards that short fence in NYS in right field? We only have 162 games of data + postseason, but we know the phillies, at least in the 2009 incarnation, have at least a reasonable chance that they are at least as good on the road as at home, even factoring in the other team’s home superiority.
If you accept that the home team wins 52.5% of the time, then the home team would win 85 out of 162 games over the season, with a standard deviation of 6.3 games one way or another. The phillies are over 1 sigma away from that. So either their season has been a meaningful (but not completely insane) aberration that would regress or we can instead pencil in a softer 50-50 split for phillies games. I chose the latter for personal preference reasons. I refuse to give cliff lee a massive 63-37 split (which i would have to do with home field advantage), and punish pedro as a 42-58 split or so, (though he might be tired of hearing who is daddy is by now).
I think my numbers have been, and continue to be both reasonable, defensible, and inexact. Finally, i looked at BP postseason odds. I was within 3% at the start of the series, and am now a full 5% at this time. Either my math is excessively sloppy, or the mistakes in their calculations (and they are surely there) lean a different way than the mistakes in my very rough calculations.
I welcome all intellgent and continued critiques.
Comment by TheUnrepentantGunner — November 2, 2009 @ 2:50 pm
well if it makes you feel any better, I try to be objective, but am also a Phillies season ticket holder, who is more than a little self satisfied that I helped David Wright drop an easy popup in foul ground this year, leading to a multi run inning instead of a 0 run inning, and thus helping the hated mets lose yet another game this year.
(by the way, I never ever thought that calling “I GOT IT!” with 2-3 other people in the right cadence would cause david wright to think that we in fact, had it, and thus lead to my brief flash with sports center fame.
I maintain a WPA of ~=+ .007 for the phillies this season, and want a piece of a playoff share.
Comment by TheUnrepentantGunner — November 2, 2009 @ 2:54 pm
If you watch the first two fastball’s Joba threw him, Feliz was very late. He just doesn’t have great batspeed. The fastball was the right pitch to throw. This is very similar to the Leyritz homer off Wohlers in ’96: he knew a fastball was coming and got lucky enough that the pitch was in the only place he could hit it.
Comment by longgandhi — November 2, 2009 @ 3:04 pm
andy and pedro are the same age
you really feel better about pedro facing the yankee lineup at home than andy vs the phillies?
Lidge threw 563 sliders this season, yet only 4 of his 1143 pitches went for wild pitches. I think the percentages greatly favor a strikeout or a groundball out as the likely outcome over a wild pitch. He should have been throwing his best pitch. What Damon had done is largely irrelevant.
Comment by longgandhi — November 2, 2009 @ 3:13 pm
Pedro is coming off of more rest than Andy. Plus I believe you’ve both missed my realist side.
Comment by DavidCEisen — November 2, 2009 @ 3:15 pm
“Meltdown” means is not executing. He executed the pitches that were called, which were the wrong pitches, whether they came from the catcher, the dugout or Tim McCarver.
longgandhi’s absolutely correct. The likelihood of a hit there was much greater than the likelihood of a wild pitch, particularly w/ Ruiz behind the plate. At that point, if Lidge decided not to throw the slider simply b/c Damon was on third, he made a colossal mistake. He has to make the pitches and have faith that Ruiz will block the ball. The concern over wild pitches that the media has when there’s a runner on third is overblown. Though they happen, it’s much more likely that a batter will get a hit when the pitcher’s not throwing his best pitch.
I can’t believe someone actually wrote this article.
Manuel HAD NO OTHER OPTIONS? REALLY, DAVE? Hey, how about that Ryan Madson guy? Or how about anyone else? Brad Lidge was one of the worst pitchers in history this season, explain to me how it was his ONLY CHOICE.
Also every Phillies and Yankees fan I know was suicidal over the respective managers bringing in Joba and Lidge. It appears the only people that were shocked that they failed were Joe Girardi, Charlie Manuel, and Dave Cameron.