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  1. Hi Jeff. :-)

    Comment by Steve — January 4, 2013 @ 5:53 pm

  2. This article makes me wonder if Jeff lost a bet somewhere. But I guess it is January, after all.

    Comment by Wally — January 4, 2013 @ 5:59 pm

  3. Oh, it can get worse. You’ll see it get worse.

    Comment by Jeff Sullivan — January 4, 2013 @ 6:05 pm

  4. If you were Phil Dumatrait and stumbled upon this article: would you be more furious about the scathing review of your career or happy to be written up at all?

    Follow up: would you be able to finish it and bear through all the gruesome details of how historically ineffective you were?

    FYI all: 5.2% swSTR career….so not much better if “swing and miss stuff” = deception either…..

    Comment by Scott Clarkson — January 4, 2013 @ 6:14 pm

  5. By worse, you must mean an analysis of Jeff Ridgway’s historic 2007 season with the Devil Rays.

    Comment by Samuel Deduno — January 4, 2013 @ 6:16 pm

  6. I personally would like to see a Bob Zupcic career retrospective next: peaking in your first MLB PA: grand slam to irrelevance.

    Comment by Scott Clarkson — January 4, 2013 @ 6:20 pm

  7. I don’t not mean that

    Comment by Jeff Sullivan — January 4, 2013 @ 6:23 pm

  8. I assume Phil’s reaction will be a single tear running down his cheek, much the same as when an entirely uneaten lunch was thrown at the feet of that Native American fellow walking down the freeway in stereotypical regalia.

    I assume Phil will find this while googling his own name and read through to the very end. Hi, Phil!

    Comment by steex — January 4, 2013 @ 6:36 pm

  9. How about an analysis of Stan Ridgway’s historic 1982 season with Wall of Voodoo?

    Comment by steex — January 4, 2013 @ 6:41 pm

  10. I dunno how mad he could be. There have been much more mean-spirited things written about him in the past, without a doubt.

    Comment by James — January 4, 2013 @ 7:12 pm

  11. I love the fact that the final GIF is of Hosmer swinging on a pitch high and tight.

    Comment by thecodygriffin — January 4, 2013 @ 7:16 pm

  12. Bring it on, Jeff, I’ll read anything right now that isn’t Adam Laroche and the push me/pull me contract. How about a comparison of today’s Nats to the legendary team of 2008? Paul Loduca, Johnny Estrada, Kory Casto, Jason Bergmann…ah, the good old days.

    What do we have, 80 days to pitchers & catchers? It is going to be a close call.

    Comment by Wally — January 4, 2013 @ 7:46 pm

  13. wow. Is this what goes on in fangraphs’ lair on Friday nights?

    Comment by attgig — January 4, 2013 @ 10:13 pm

  14. Does anybody get “comment is awaiting moderation” messages, or is it just me? Whenever I post from work now, I get that comment.

    Comment by vivalajeter — January 4, 2013 @ 10:44 pm

  15. Seems plausible, although honestly I would rather read a post by Jeff on pretty much any topic–say, evaluating impact of different brands of beans on wind currents within various stadia–than pretty much anything by Remington even if the topic has enormous potential to be interesting.

    No offense, Alex. You’re just the Phil Dumatrait of Fangrahs.

    Comment by walt526 — January 4, 2013 @ 11:02 pm

  16. I’d love to know whether there’s any validity to the notion that players do better than usual in walk years. And are there any metrics to gauge managerial performance? Not that this wasn’t a good story or didn’t beat the hell out of NCAA hoops analysis.

    Comment by Keith — January 4, 2013 @ 11:46 pm

  17. Since the Royals have the greatest farm system ever, it’s unfair showing this guy facing hitters who have been drafted and trained to humiliate the middling players on other teams.

    Royals’ hitters don’t need to tell balls from strikes. They can see into the future, but also into alternate futures and can predict what the umpire will do if they don’t swing. Their super-computer brains work out the odds of swinging at a pitch the umpire will call a strike, and take their chances with their well-honed swings.

    Comment by johng — January 5, 2013 @ 12:02 am

  18. Just out of question, is there any way for us to tell just how often he threw to various catchers? He spent most of those innings in Pittsburgh while the primary backstop was the notoriously terrible pitch framer Ryan Doumit. He should’ve been throwing to some combination of Mauer, Butera, and Rivera in 2011 (Mauer rates out well, the other two don’t seem to have enough of a sample to be in Fast’s research and I’m not especially familiar with them).

    The difference wouldn’t turn him into Venters (maybe not even into Runzler, frankly), but being a borderline Quad-A pitcher with questionable control throwing to a catcher who can’t frame seems like it would really magnify the problem.

    Comment by steex — January 5, 2013 @ 12:31 am

  19. I enjoyed this article quite a bit. I read the snide comments above, but maybe it’s a matter of not being able to please all the audience all the time.

    Seems to me that a benefit of getting a lot of swings at pitchers outside of the strike zone ought to be weak contact, reflected in better than league average BABIP. Maybe so, but of the 6 leaders (one of whom is Mariano Rivera), only 4 out of 6 have lower than typical career BABIP. Still, it’s fascinating to me.

    Comment by Detroit Michael — January 5, 2013 @ 12:50 am

  20. I’m pretty sure than studies have been done on the first thing, and that there is no validity to the claim.

    Comment by BurleighGrimes — January 5, 2013 @ 2:13 am

  21. What if his perceived deception was, in fact, his greatest deception? Meta-deception! Congratulations Neal Huntington, you got Dumatraited.

    Comment by George — January 5, 2013 @ 9:19 am

  22. Alex Remington is my favorite FanGraphs author, but Jeff Sullivan is the most prolific.

    Comment by Baltar — January 5, 2013 @ 10:22 am

  23. Do you also get bizarre replies like the one from johng?

    Comment by Baltar — January 5, 2013 @ 10:25 am

  24. It sounds like Dumatrait stole Jeff’s lover. I think it woulda been hilarious if Dumatrait woulda actually written this. But he didn’t, so thus, it’s not as hilarious. Maybe you can make a FanGraphs stat with that equation.

    Comment by elninoheroe — January 5, 2013 @ 11:48 am

  25. When you read those comments about Dumatrait’s bright future with the Pirates, keep in mind that he was competing for a roster spot with Matt Morris, John van Benschoten, and Bryan Bullington.

    Comment by matt w — January 5, 2013 @ 12:45 pm

  26. I found the article interesting .I enjoy things which make me look at things in a different way .I think that is the key to true learning .

    Comment by Dirck — January 5, 2013 @ 3:50 pm

  27. Kevin Kouzmanoff?

    Comment by Jason — January 5, 2013 @ 8:13 pm

  28. Once Dumatrait dropped the umlaut, it was all downhill.

    Comment by Ken — January 5, 2013 @ 9:33 pm

  29. Just curious why anyone thought he had potential? His numbers even in the minors were bad to mediocre. Did he throw in the upper 90s when he was drafted? Otherwise being left handed seems to be the point of interest.

    Comment by Franco — January 5, 2013 @ 11:15 pm

  30. no thanks Jeff lol

    Comment by Pat — January 5, 2013 @ 11:17 pm

  31. this was a fun article

    Comment by Pat — January 5, 2013 @ 11:17 pm

  32. Baseball-ref has it in the splits section.

    Doumit did catch him the most, at 37.2 of his 151 IP (roughly 25%). Next were Raul Chavez (29.1), Drew Butera (22.2), Ronny Paulino (20.2) and Joe Mauer (12.2)

    Of those top 5, ironically, he was actually at his worst with Mauer back there. Specifically
    .364/.422/.600/1.022 – Mauer
    .321/.418/.506/.925 – Doumit
    .259/.325/.402/.651 – Chavez
    .214/.330/.321/.651 – Buetra
    .194/.310/.333/.644 – Paulino

    Comment by blahblahblah — January 6, 2013 @ 11:26 am

  33. when I came back to close the page, noticed a typo – Chavez should be .727 OPS

    Comment by blahblahblah — January 6, 2013 @ 11:45 am

  34. You’re the best, Jeff. Love you.

    Comment by Phil Dumatrait — January 6, 2013 @ 12:13 pm

  35. Dumatrait appears to be a French name . No umlaut in French .

    Comment by Dirck — January 6, 2013 @ 1:30 pm

  36. My support of the Reds goes back to 1950 Dumatrait was a real strong prospect for a system which has done pretty well over the time he spent with the Reds–THE Twins never saw him for a total season they missed a thrill.

    Comment by Dave Silverwood — January 6, 2013 @ 1:35 pm

  37. Just looking at those .gifs . . . anyone know if that Dairy Queen special is still on?

    Comment by Matt — January 6, 2013 @ 9:19 pm

  38. I admit it, I scrolled back up to look. Now off to DQ for a Blizzard!

    Comment by Subversive — January 6, 2013 @ 9:36 pm

  39. That O-Swing bottom 5 is not all that truly awful. Dessens and MacDougal each have 400+ MLB appearances to their names. That’s not all-time worst material there.

    Also, to all that haters, I find the analyses of unsuccessful players equally if not more fascinating that the successful ones. I learn more about baseball skill from these articles than from the articles explaining freakish aberrations of success.

    Comment by Mac — January 7, 2013 @ 1:02 am

  40. I believe the research shows that the performance level is about the same, but there was a difference in playing time.

    In other words, during a contract year, players are little less likely to sit out with a nagging injury.

    But, in general , players don;t “crank up the talent” or “try really hard” during their contract year as compared to other years.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — January 7, 2013 @ 11:00 am

  41. They’re not called umlauts, but don’t ë and ï appear from time to time?

    Or is that just for English spellings of French words?

    Comment by Llewdor — January 7, 2013 @ 2:32 pm

  42. Amusing and interesting, thumbs up.

    Comment by Ruki Motomiya — January 10, 2013 @ 2:43 am

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