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  1. No comps for pitchers?!

    Comment by Coop! — January 7, 2013 @ 8:37 am

  2. All very nice, BUT WHERE IN THE @#$^*@&^#$ IS FANGRAPHS AUDIO???

    Comment by Adam R — January 7, 2013 @ 9:10 am

  3. The one thing that jumped out was the projection on Hamilton, which seemed crazy low, though his career has been weird enough that he probably breaks all the projection systems.

    Comment by touqianzhuang — January 7, 2013 @ 9:42 am

  4. Got cut off. Fixed now. Thanks.

    Comment by Carson Cistulli — January 7, 2013 @ 9:47 am

  5. This is an interesting team, and one I can see winning 95+ games. I saw an article from Cameron on ESPN that thought they didnt improve at all, which may be true from their signings and trades. But this team seemed to be very unlucky last year. On a team WAR stand-point I think the 2012 team was around a 95 win team, largely due to the world’s best offence. Further, a lot of their pitching woes came from some terrible RPs that are not on the team any longer, and Ervin Santana. As of now, I think these guys are a few games ahead of the Rangers on paper.

    Comment by Darren — January 7, 2013 @ 9:55 am

  6. Yeah, seems weird. Maybe they’re thinking a post-contract lull? I don’t see any world where he only hits 26 HRs, a 38% drop off from last year.

    Comment by jeromesdome — January 7, 2013 @ 9:57 am

  7. It’s the world where he suffers one significant or multiple minor nagging injuries, and misses 50 games.

    Comment by David — January 7, 2013 @ 10:08 am

  8. A small bit of that is simple regression and a base projection… I’d guess his odds for more are pretty nice. But, also… there’s the park factor, which looks to be a near extreme opposite from Texas. With a full season of ~650 PA, he’s still a good bet for 30+

    Comment by BobbyS — January 7, 2013 @ 10:10 am

  9. Boom Boom Beck. Best comp name?

    Comment by BobbyS — January 7, 2013 @ 10:19 am

  10. Gotta take the under on the Weaver projection. Turning 30, with his K rate and velocity falling 3 years in a row, there’s no way he posts those kinds of numbers.

    Also, there’s a player named (and not even nicknamed!) boom-boom?! Awesome.

    Comment by johnnycuff — January 7, 2013 @ 10:30 am

  11. Well, if LaTroy Hawkins looks half as good as Boom-Boom Beck, the Angels will be sitting pretty.

    Comment by Joe — January 7, 2013 @ 10:34 am

  12. His name is Walter. Not sure on the origin of the nickname, but it is pretty rad.

    Comment by Derb — January 7, 2013 @ 10:34 am

  13. He’s play 150+ games once in his career. He’s 31 years old.

    Comment by James — January 7, 2013 @ 10:43 am

  14. I’ve had to while my cooking/washing/cleaning time listening to Comedy Bang Bang these past few weeks. Not that I mind terribly.

    Comment by Well-Beered Englishman — January 7, 2013 @ 10:51 am

  15. ZiPS has yet to project a single .300 BA. I’m new to ZiPS, are the projections typically conservative?

    Comment by jB4s7 — January 7, 2013 @ 11:23 am

  16. Looks like LA is gonna have some great baseball this summer.

    Comment by jfree — January 7, 2013 @ 11:25 am

  17. no, no thank you sir.

    Comment by Coop! — January 7, 2013 @ 11:44 am

  18. Yes, quite conservative compared to BJ and fans.

    Comment by James — January 7, 2013 @ 11:47 am

  19. ZiPS projects there *will* be .300 batting averages, but of the teams posted, no individual is *more* likely to have a .300 batting average than not. It’s an important distinction. If your mean projections don’t have a tighter spread than yearly final totals, you’re doing something wrong.

    Comment by Dan Szymborski — January 7, 2013 @ 11:56 am

  20. According to Wiki (best source ever?!:-/)… ” His nickname, Boom-Boom, was earned while pitching at Baker Bowl against the Phillies in 1934. He allowed numerous line drives that struck the outfield wall, each time making a booming sound. Manager Casey Stengel sought to remove Beck from the game. Frustrated with his performance and for being removed, Beck threw the baseball at the outfield wall, where it hit and made another booming sound.” Boom-Boom!!!!

    Comment by BobbyS — January 7, 2013 @ 12:07 pm

  21. So I guess Trout regressed to the “mean?” What a beast…

    Comment by shubox — January 7, 2013 @ 12:12 pm

  22. Only twenty players have a .300+ average through the last two seasons. No one not on that list will get a .300+ projection. Many of the guys very close to .300 won’t either.

    That leaves you with a shot list of guys you would really expect to get a .300 projection. Cabrera, Votto, and Beltre are the only guys I would see as near locks to get such a projection.

    Comment by philosofool — January 7, 2013 @ 12:31 pm

  23. What would Trout project at as a CF? I’d imagine he is losing a touch of value by having to play LF. That makes the 8 WAR seem even more bullish to me. I think the HR total will drop a lot more.

    Comment by TKDC — January 7, 2013 @ 12:43 pm

  24. You are very close with your 95+ to the rough, invalid projection of 96 obtained by adding 45 (all-replacement team) to the 51 total on the depth chart.
    The previous high was 92 for the Nationals. I think the Rangers were around 88, though I am not certain.
    I’m really curious to see the Rays’ projections.

    Comment by Baltar — January 7, 2013 @ 1:03 pm

  25. 8 WAR projection for a sophomore is staggering. That means 10 WAR would not be surprising.

    Comment by Baltar — January 7, 2013 @ 1:07 pm

  26. I had never even heard of the name, but it just jumps off the page. My goal was to have him trend for player page lookups on the home page but it seems like that has been removed with the new re-design of the home page. :(

    Comment by Atari — January 7, 2013 @ 1:11 pm

  27. trout is projecting as a CF

    Comment by jim — January 7, 2013 @ 1:14 pm

  28. I hear you. If one day I’m unable to repress massive amounts of household-cleaning-related angst because there’s been no Fangraphs Audio to enjoy while washing dishes, that’s blood on Cistulli’s hands, as far as I’m concerned.

    Just a few notes of Herb Alpert and the Tijuana Brass…and it’s goodbye, cathexis.

    Comment by Adam R — January 7, 2013 @ 2:13 pm

  29. The rotation is leaving a lot to hopes and dreams, can Weaver maintain dominance and health, will Wilson really step up, can Hanson still pitch too his previous ability at all, is Blanton above replacement level, will road Vargas be what they get, can Williams or Richard give them even replacement level production if one of the starters goes down, and most importantly does the team have any depth behind those seven, or prospect depth to acquire it? That is a lot of praying for best case scenarios in my opinion, with a lot of regression in the wrong direction with several options. They are, in my opinion, Weavers arm breaking away from being the ’12 Redsox Rotation. Colorado scored a lot last year where did it get them without pitching?

    P.S. look for Madson to look like Nathan did his first year back for a while.

    Comment by Tim A — January 7, 2013 @ 3:44 pm

  30. Mark Trumbo to Richie Sexson is about as accurate a comp as I could imagine.

    Comment by Big Jgke — January 7, 2013 @ 4:03 pm

  31. So basically, the Angels are projected to win at least 95 games by raw context (51 WAR not including last four spots on the bench), assuming the baseline of a replacement level 25 man roster is 44 wins? I have a hard time seeing that. I love Trout, but if he’s playing LF instead of CF while posting an .870 OPS with his defense and baserunning adding a win each, that sounds more like a 6 win player, maybe 7. I think the rotation at the top is overrated by at least two wins as well, and that doesn’t include the 15-20 starts I think they’ll need from someone in AAA when Hanson inevitably goes under the knife. It may seem to be splitting hairs, but this is more of a good 90 win team than a great 95 win one.

    Comment by Brian — January 7, 2013 @ 4:29 pm

  32. Beltre was already projected to hit .296.

    Comment by IZZY2112 — January 7, 2013 @ 11:39 pm

  33. They should have a better record this year with just average luck but I think 90 wins is about their ceiling. Hamilton can hit them out of any park but some of his Arlington dingers are going to be doubles or outs at Angels Stadium. I don’t see Pujols getting any better at this point in his career, ditto Wells and their rotation looks only a little better than average thanks to their bats and OF. The Astros will make the other AL West teams records look a bit better so they might get to 92 wins.

    Comment by maqman — January 8, 2013 @ 8:06 am

  34. Their rotation was actually pretty bad last year. They also under-performed their WAR total by about 3 wins last year. Put in some league average starting pitchers, trim the bullpen of dead weight, have what is by far the best position player roster in all of baseball, and you’ve got yourselves a playoff team. Their rotation doesn’t need to be that good, it just needs to be better than horrible.

    Comment by KrunchyGoodness — January 8, 2013 @ 5:35 pm

  35. Well sure, he had 10 WAR in 2012. Repeating it wouldn’t be surprising at all. I guess 6 WAR would be a disappointment. Wow.

    Comment by Ivan Grushenko — January 9, 2013 @ 7:53 am

  36. Wells is going to have a positive WAR? Broken!

    Comment by Experiment 626 — January 9, 2013 @ 11:43 am

  37. The josh Hamilton projections are way wrong. How do u figure aybar and Howie will hit more doubles than Hamilton? I get u thik park factors will lower his home run totals, but he should still hit plenty of doubles. Look at ap doules last year. Why can’t josh do the same? No way he hits less than 30 and 100 RBI unless he plays in under 120 games. And there’s no way Albert won’t hit over .300 again this year. Computers don’t realize how hot he was minus that month long slump…he was one of the best hitters in baseball after April. Also how in the heck do u figure Peter bourjos will oly steal 18 bases in a full season. U computer geeks are way off. Wy don’t I watch baseball instead of relying on computers. Trout with 170 hits in almost 700 pa is ridiculous as well.

    Comment by Wow — January 10, 2013 @ 2:36 pm

  38. Exactly. Their pitchers total WAR in 2012 was 10. Easily the lowest of any competitive team.

    Comment by PraiseTrout — January 10, 2013 @ 2:59 pm

  39. They’re just comparing David Carpenter to Brendan Donnelly because they both wear glasses !

    Comment by Shouldn't hit a man — January 12, 2013 @ 1:32 pm

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