Going to be super interesting to see how many high knucklers get corked out of Rogers’ Centre that wouldn’t make it out of Citi Field.
Comment by MonkeyEpoxy — January 9, 2013 @ 8:22 am
Right on eh.
Comment by Robert MacKenzie — January 9, 2013 @ 8:59 am
except that dickey, and knuckleballers in general, pitch better in domes – especially if they’re closed. so what would be even more interesting to see is whether or not dickey pitches even better at Rogers centre. while Rogers centre is a hitters park, people tend to forget that the jays pitching staff had the lowest era a few years back.
Read the disclaimer: “ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.”
How are major-league comps for minor-league players determined? For example, the comp for Anthony Gose is a guy who never earned a non-negative WAR over a full season in his big league career. Yet Carson wrote in the intro that Gose is “viewed as something not unlike major-league average” by ZiPS, based on his projected 2.0 WAR…
Not sure you can do what I’m about to because the hitters are projected to total 14,109 plate appearances and the pitchers 3313 innings pitched, but total WAR projected adds up to 47.1 which I believe projects to about 96 wins.
You can’t. ZIPS is only about player production and projected PA based only on recent history of PA. To accurately project team WAR, a more indepth PA assessment is needed (he depth chart approach from the article is a good first cut, only including the expected starters for each position).
Supported enough for AA to admit in press conference context that the dome will ALWAYS be closed for Dickey’s starts, irrespective of the weather. Given the very strong preference of fans for an open dome, that says something significant.
Comment by Someanalyst — January 9, 2013 @ 11:33 am
I sometimes stick in a joke, but Buck is definitely the top comp. I’ll screenshot if disbelief persists!
Comment by Dan Szymborski — January 9, 2013 @ 11:43 am
This year, just looking at top 3 comps, some of the most comped-to players are Herm Winningham, Chad Moeller, Brook Jacoby, George Mitterwald, Brad Voyles, Brook Jacoby, and Dave Martinez.
Comment by Dan Szymborski — January 9, 2013 @ 11:47 am
– If you have a pitcher leading the league in batters faced and you’re not projecting fewer next year, something’s gone wrong, because the risk is essentially all to the downside.
– Dickey has two 200 inning seasons in his career, so it’s a little premature to conclude he’s a tank, even if he is a knuckler.
– A good chunk of the innings dropped is simply the result of a lesser projection and a change to a significantly tougher environment to pitch in. More hits and a few more walks reduced IP for the same number of batters faced. Not pitching quite as well also results in shorter stints, on average.
Comment by Dan Szymborski — January 9, 2013 @ 11:56 am
They are not “major league” comps.
Winningham comes as similar to Gose because, at the same point in his career Gose is, Winningham had the most similar recent history to Gose, majors and minors.
Comment by Dan Szymborski — January 9, 2013 @ 12:01 pm
Yeah, the Cecil and Lincoln IP projections seem crazy. Is there any reason for them being predicted to pitch that many innings? Isn’t Happ the guy that will pick up rotation slack in the case of injuries?
On the whole, ZIPs seems fairly conservative about the Jays and yet the result is still quite positive.
I imagine that Bautista will finish with at least 50 more PAs which could push his WAR above 5. I also don’t see Dickey pitching >3.5 ERA given his track record over the last 3 years and the fact that the dome will mostly be closed. I’d prefer Janssen to close given he’s been one of the best relievers in baseball over the last 2 years by any metric (WAR, WPA, ERA-, K/9, BB/9). Either way, an 8/9 of Santos and Janssen is something to look forward to. Brad Lincoln’s #’s should also be far improved as ZIPs (rightfully so) is ignoring that he became a completely different pitcher in 2012, gaining 2 MPH on his fastball.
Pure speculation but that speculation is coming from the pitchers themselves. Even if that gives a placebo mental advantage it’s worth noting. ZIPs seems pretty low on Dickey (although it somehow still equates to 4 WAR). I think he can and will beat most of his peripherals (K/9, HR/9, ERA). His K% last year was 24.8% and ZIPs has him at 18%.
Career Avg. means NOTHING for some players.
Bautista pre swing changes playing twice a week in Pitt is not an indicator of his future performance.
Look at RA Dickey’s stats from 2001-2008. WORTHLESS he didnt even try to throw a knuckle until 06.
And their current roles mean nothing here… because you’re assuming certain playing time for one or the other, but ZiPs doesn’t project playing time in regards to expected role. Look at the projections in context, reading the disclaimers and other information here. Nobody expects Thole to be a better or more valuable player, nor does ZiPs even suggest they’re anywhere in the same.
Although, Bautista’s .262 average with Toronto alone, doesn’t sway things either.
The ERAs seem worse than the FIPs. If that’s because of crappy defense, the Jays might want to put Gose, Rasmus and Melky in the OF and move Bautista to 1B. Also get a good defensive 2B….like Cliff Pennington or somebody. It’s not like Lind and Mice Hair are going to set the world on fire.
Comment by Ivan Grushenko — January 10, 2013 @ 12:27 am
Career average “means nothing” is a pretty ridiculous statement. Bautista’s hit between .260 and .270 as a Jay, which is more or less Thole’s career average. And Bautista is getting old, and probably worse, while Thole is still pretty young. Pretty plausible projection, then.
I don’t think ZiPS takes knuckleballers into account in any special way, does it? That is, it doesn’t know that Dickey’s ability to induce weak contact is a legitimate skill. That’d probably explain it.
You don’t need a computer program to make the comparison.
Comment by vilifyingforce — January 10, 2013 @ 1:15 pm
No, not valid. Adding 45 (Dan’s approximate for an all-replacement team) to the total from the depth chart comes to 90. This is not valid either, but probably a reasonable projection. Doing the same for the Angels yields 96 and for the Nationals 92.
Comment by DukeBlueDevils — January 11, 2013 @ 4:37 pm
Any chance we can get a projection for Deck McGuire? I’m sure it won’t be pretty, but he pitched great as a reliever in the AFL this winter, and it’s very possible he sees innings out of the Toronto bullpen this year if nothing else.