FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Didn’t realize Shields had given up so many HRs in his career until I saw that ZiPS had him projected to give up 28 next year. Boy is he going to miss everything about Tampa Bay.

    Comment by Caveman Jones — January 10, 2013 @ 9:30 am

  2. Maybe, he’s got some Home/Road splits for sure, but Kauffman stadium isn’t bad for pitchers, and he surely won’t miss going to Fenway, NY, Rogers Centre or Baltimore 6-8 times a year. The Cell could be a nightmare for him, but Detroit, Target Field and CLE shouldn’t be bad…

    Comment by Bill — January 10, 2013 @ 9:43 am

  3. I wonder how much of that stat is directly related to pitching against the Yankees and Red Sox more than he faced any other team over the past few years. NYY and BOS were in the top 3 in AL HRs from 2009-2011. Last year in the AL, the bottom three teams in HRs were Central division teams. If I were a betting man, I’d take the under if it’s set at 28 for 2013. (He gave up 25 in 227.2 IP last year)

    Comment by CreativeMace — January 10, 2013 @ 9:44 am

  4. Is that WAR figure for Billy Butler correct? He’s projected at 0.354 wOBA and 3.8 WAR, whereas last year he had 0.377 wOBA and 3.2 WAR, so his hitting is going to get worse but he’s going to get significantly more valuable? The difference in wOBA over 660 PAs amounts to a drop of about 7 runs; even if we assume that you’re not including his usual -6 runs for base running the result should be around 3.1, and if you include base running it’ll be closer to 2.5.

    Comment by Paul Clarke — January 10, 2013 @ 9:48 am

  5. Ervin Santana with a worse projection than Hochevar, Chen or Smith? That’s insane!

    Comment by tj — January 10, 2013 @ 9:53 am

  6. Seems like a pretty conservative projection for Gordon.

    Comment by Matt — January 10, 2013 @ 9:59 am

  7. It’s likely that FG uses a different DH baseline that I do, plus, it doesn’t have the -3 runs that last year’s WAR had from his 1B play.

    I have DH equal to 1B. While it’s an easier job defensively, there’s also good evidence that it’s a little harder to hit as a DH than as an actual fielder – if you look at same season players in history with 150 games played in a season (to try and eliminate most of the injured guys), they have hit worse collectively DHing than playing the field.

    Comment by Dan Szymborski — January 10, 2013 @ 10:04 am

  8. I have Butler in front of me now. In Butler’s projected playing time, I have a league-average hitter in KC at 77 runs created and a replacement-level 1B/DH in KC at 65 runs created. I have Butler at 102 runs created, or 37 runs above replacement.

    Comment by Dan Szymborski — January 10, 2013 @ 10:20 am

  9. Thanks. Fangraphs, I believe, uses Tango’s position adjustment of -17.5 for DH, so if you’re using something closer to -12.5 and not including base running the 3.8 WAR makes sense.

    Comment by Paul Clarke — January 10, 2013 @ 10:24 am

  10. Indeed it seems very conservative. But on the other hand, he’s probably the only hitter that I think ZiPs is pessimistic on. Everything else sounds about right – which means this team is going to be kinda bad.

    Add in the pitching, which is close to what I would expect on most pitchers, and yeah, this isn’t a .500 team. I do think Mendoza is better than his projection, but the Royals have already designated him for bullpen duty so that Hochevar can start. Also, Duffy’s projection is bad, but if he gets healthy I think it’s obvious that he’s better than Hochevar.

    Comment by hawkinscm — January 10, 2013 @ 10:24 am

  11. I hope for the sake of Royals fans that both Hosmer and Moustakas take a giant leap forward this year. Otherwise, this is yet another 90-loss team.

    Comment by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat — January 10, 2013 @ 10:26 am

  12. “Paphlagonian Liver”

    You made up that name.

    Comment by Brandon Warne — January 10, 2013 @ 10:39 am

  13. No he didn’t, he was a team-mate of Spartan Appendix.

    Comment by Aaron (UK) — January 10, 2013 @ 10:50 am

  14. Maybe, last year his HR home/road split wasn’t that huge, but it has been for his career. He’ll miss the trop not only because of HRs but because of the defense he’s been accustomed to playing in front of all those years (easily number one in UZR from 08-12).

    Comment by Caveman Jones — January 10, 2013 @ 10:55 am

  15. HR rate as calculated HR/PA versus AL East (all 20+ starts):

    Yankees: 3.79%
    Red Sox: 3.29%
    Blue Jays: 4.38%
    Orioles: 2.54%

    Career versus MLB: 3.05%

    Interesting thing to note looking at his B-R splits page; his career tOPS+ versus Chi, Cle, Min, & Det are 125, 113, 108, & 104 respectively. Something to keep in mind considering he is also going to be pitching in front of a much lesser defensive team. His home runs will likely go down, but his overall results will likely heavily degrade.

    Comment by Glorpo — January 10, 2013 @ 11:02 am

  16. Ervin Santana and Luke Hochevar are both future Richard Dotsons
    Dan Wheeler and Brian Sanches are both future Terry Mathews

    Is this a typo, or do both sets of players both have the same #1 comp and listed sequentially by 2013 projected WAR? If it’s just a coincidence, that’s pretty amazing.

    Comment by gore51 — January 10, 2013 @ 11:13 am

  17. The projections for Salvador Perez seem very conservative – especially the playing time. If anyone on the Royals has a shot at hitting .300+, wouldn’t it be him? He seems primed for a huge breakout year.

    Also interesting: Moustakas, Hosmer, & Escobar are all projected to have similar Runs & Hits totals. If Escobar isn’t leading off, then how will he possibly produce at the same level of Hosmer & Moose? Both H&M should produce a LOT more power while hitting in the heart of the lineup. Seems too high on Escobar or too low for Hosmer & Moustakas, no?

    Comment by Ziggy — January 10, 2013 @ 11:21 am

  18. Kauffman Stadium is just as tough on home runs as The Trop is, and, in many years, more so.

    Comment by rbt — January 10, 2013 @ 11:28 am

  19. Playing time? He has a projected 473 PA, only 12 catchers in the league got more than that last year, and that’s including guys like Jesus Montero, Ryan Doumit, and Joe Mauer who all spent a majority of their PA playing elsewhere (or DHing).

    Comment by gore51 — January 10, 2013 @ 11:40 am

  20. Love the Butler/Sweeney comp

    Comment by playingwithfire — January 10, 2013 @ 11:41 am

  21. I believe the same positive effect of Kauffman expanse + above-average outfield defense that worked well for Guthrie will pay dividends to Shields as well.

    Comment by KCDaveInLA — January 10, 2013 @ 12:32 pm

  22. How could anyone project 382 PAs for Brandon Wood?!

    Comment by Jimmy D — January 10, 2013 @ 1:46 pm

  23. And Crow/Hoffman

    Comment by Jimmy D — January 10, 2013 @ 1:50 pm

  24. How will Escobar produce at Hosmer and Moose’s level? Fairly easily I would think. As long as he doesn’t get too much worse.

    Comment by hawkinscm — January 10, 2013 @ 2:00 pm

  25. Read the disclaimer and you’ll know how!

    Comment by jda — January 10, 2013 @ 2:06 pm

  26. Other than Butler, it looks like Perez does have the best shot at hitting .300+, but that isn’t to say his mean projection (not necessarily prediction) should be over .300.

    Comment by BobbyS — January 10, 2013 @ 2:54 pm

  27. Does anyone else feel like Moustakas and Hosmer should be much better than this? Also, I feel like overall this is a little conservative across the board as far as projections go…that being said I still find the Myers/Odorizzi etc. for Shields/Davis trade embarassingly stupid. Even if Shields and Davis outperform this, Francoeur in RF is hilarious and wouldn’t Myers have probably provided the same upgrade in wins just by generating so many more runs than Francoeur?

    Comment by Michael — January 10, 2013 @ 4:28 pm

  28. Sadly I agree. Frenchy should not be penciled in for any starting job in baseball. In fact, I think he should be competing for a 4th OF spot.

    Comment by NATS Fan — January 10, 2013 @ 5:34 pm

  29. This is not conservative across the board as projections go. Adding Dan’s approximaton of wins for an all-replacement of 45 to the numbers in his depth chart yields 83. If my memory serves me correctly, that is higher than the same calculations for each of the Giants and A’s yielded. That’s pretty good company.
    If Dan’s projections are in the ballpark, KC is a dark horse contender. Perhaps those universally ridiculed off-season moves weren’t so bad after all.

    Comment by Baltar — January 10, 2013 @ 6:04 pm

  30. Trevor Hoffman, Brad Lidge and Mitch Williams comps in the bullpen. Sounds like a good bullpen.

    Comment by Atari — January 10, 2013 @ 7:59 pm

  31. Surprised to see Alex Gordon projected for only 3.6 WAR after 6.9 and 5.9 WAR seasons and his age (29) for the entire 2013 season.

    Comment by Serious Sam — January 10, 2013 @ 9:12 pm

  32. Perez is interesting. He’s pegged as a 3 WAR player in just 473 AB’s, yet his best comp is Bengie Molina, a guy with a career high of 2.4 WAR over a full season.

    Comment by Mac — January 10, 2013 @ 11:16 pm

  33. Exactly. If it was expressed as a prediction interval, .300 would easily fall within the range.

    Comment by Paul — January 10, 2013 @ 11:38 pm

  34. How is Moustakas only +1 defensively when he was +16 in his first full season?

    Comment by tb — January 10, 2013 @ 11:50 pm

  35. Adding Dan’s approximaton of wins for an all-replacement of 45 to the numbers in his depth chart yields 83.

    I’ve seen a comment like this in every projection thread. What’s the best way to get an estimate of wins given the ZIPS?

    Obviously the 21st-25th players on a roster don’t contribute much, but given 10-12 players take up those spots is ignoring them right? Clearly we could improve on the rounded numbers on the black depth chart which yield +/- 2-3 wins in rounding error, a big deal when teams are tightly bunched. In fact adding up the depth chart players from the tables below, the Royals will produce only 35.9 WAR instead of 38 WAR.

    Comment by Adam S — January 11, 2013 @ 3:08 am

  36. This just recognizes the reality that all the offseason mythology has skewed: the Royals offense was crap last year. A perpetual and quite intentional problem by the front office, is that the offense contains 5-7 absolute hackers and two or three legit guys. But no team runs a hacktastic offense on purpose without having at least one MVP caliber hitter in the middle. They just plain don’t get on base enough. Gordon/Butler just cannot consistently bail out the other seven guys who would not take a pitch if their families were being held hostage.

    Comment by Paul — January 11, 2013 @ 8:36 am

  37. No one complaining about Cain yet? I know there isn’t a huge history to go on, but he basically hit this projection last year after being injured for 4 months. So happy that this kid gets no love in fantasy circles. Can’t wait to draft him on every team I have!

    Comment by SKob — January 11, 2013 @ 9:44 am

  38. Oh and ‘Blech’ on the Reggie Williams comp. I don’t even care which Reggie Williams, just ‘pft’!

    Comment by SKob — January 11, 2013 @ 9:48 am

  39. Baltar…fair enough, but you are missing one of my main points…Are they actually better than they would have been if they had just replaced Frenchy with Myers? I feel like if these projections hold up, the answer is more than likely no.

    Comment by Michael — January 11, 2013 @ 3:43 pm

  40. Frenchy will hopefully be platooned with Dyson, as Frenchy is actually okay hitting vs. lefties and Dyson is okay vs. righties. Combined, they’d make a decent player. And they did try it last year…

    Comment by Ruki Motomiya — January 12, 2013 @ 11:10 pm

  41. I wouldn’t say 90 loss. Not in that awful division.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — January 15, 2013 @ 1:09 am

  42. Any chance you would give a projection for Christian Colon?

    Comment by Dan — January 15, 2013 @ 5:29 pm

  43. The absurdity of Luis Durango’s projected ISO is the only thing to like about him.

    Comment by RA Rowe — January 16, 2013 @ 4:16 pm

  44. I am wondering this also?? I am not quite sure how these numbers translate to how the defensive ratings usually are. AV/100 and so on, anyone have an idea what Moustakas will actually be? AV/85ish?

    Comment by DoubleDave — January 22, 2013 @ 9:17 am

  45. I don’t think he’s going to miss everything about Tampa Bay. Shields will have a solid defense behind him and Kaufman Stadium is quite possibly the worst home run park in baseball. ESPN did a program about the lack of homers hit in that stadium. It’s not like his home runs allowed are going to skyrocket.

    Comment by Bob — January 31, 2013 @ 10:30 am

  46. Michael – regarding the Myers v. Frenchy question…I do think KC is better off having revamped the rotation and stuck with Frenchy for now. They have platoon options should he falter. And it’s not like Myers is guaranteed to come up to the big leagues and rake. Most projections I’ve seen for him aren’t anything better than a typical Frenchy season. Eventually, sure, Myers will PROBABLY be miles ahead of Frenchy…but we won’t know until he gets his shot.

    On the other hand, their 1-2 pitchers from 2012 are now battling each other for the 5 spot in the rotation. That was the main area of need, and they did a great job overhauling the starting pitching. At some point you have to try to win at this level – prospect rankings be damned. If they want to keep some of these players around – Gordon, butler, Moose, Hosmer, etc., they need to show these guys they aren’t always going to be waiting til next year.

    Comment by Bob — January 31, 2013 @ 10:35 am

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