FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Dan, you’ve got pretty much all of the Brewers top pitching prospects projected here except Jimmy Nelson. Can we get a projection for him as well?

    Comment by Ward — January 11, 2013 @ 10:10 am

  2. Pleasantly surprised with the Scooter Gennett projection. What’s his ceiling project as? Is this projection basically it?

    Comment by Derb — January 11, 2013 @ 10:35 am

  3. Carlos Gomez’s #1 comp is Tim Raines?!

    Comment by Eminor3rd — January 11, 2013 @ 10:42 am

  4. that’s a brutal projection for mark rogers: 0.94 K/BB rate… and he’s still projected for a better ERA than chris narveson.

    ahh sea bass gonzalez, how you’ve been messing up my scripts for years. do you still project yourself, dan? if so, how does your season look this year?

    Comment by johnnycuff — January 11, 2013 @ 10:50 am

  5. Not the good one.

    Comment by Dan Szymborski — January 11, 2013 @ 11:02 am

  6. I usually stick myself in at the end, generally with something like 1/3 IP, 6 ER.

    Comment by Dan Szymborski — January 11, 2013 @ 11:06 am

  7. Carston,

    Would you mind summing the WAR for the team? Also, did a bit of searching and a replacement level team (0 WAR) would generate 52 wins in a year.

    So, the Brewers would subsequently project as a 35 WAR team, or an 87 game winner.

    At least that’s what makes sense off the top of my head. Just seems to fit within these summaries.

    Comment by Other Bill — January 11, 2013 @ 11:07 am

  8. Why’d Wily Peralta get left out of the starting rotation depth chart?

    Comment by filihok — January 11, 2013 @ 11:09 am

  9. Wow, Ryan Braun or bust.

    Comment by Hurtlockertwo — January 11, 2013 @ 11:34 am

  10. Dan estimates 45 wins for an all-replacement team. Although this methodology is not valid, adding 35 from the depth chart would give the Brewers 80. Surprisingly this is the same as the Giants for what it’s worth.

    Comment by Baltar — January 11, 2013 @ 11:36 am

  11. The Brewers have a pitcher named Zach Kroenke? That would be like the Cardinals having a first baseman named Albert Buholtz.

    Comment by Well-Beered Englishman — January 11, 2013 @ 11:55 am

  12. These comment threads play like a broken record for each team.

    “using 65 wins as replacment level i get 127 wins for dis team by added up all da numberz!”

    “Sean Marcumb isn’t on dis team anymor stupid!!”

    “how cum u projected 245 innings fer jose lima no way he pitches dat many dis year!!!!”

    Comment by BaseClogger — January 11, 2013 @ 12:15 pm

  13. How does a player end up with an ERA- and ERA+ number >100?

    I.e., Marco Estrada: 104 ERA-, 102 ERA+. So according to his ERA-, Estrada is 4% worse than league average, but according to ERA+, the league’s average ERA is 2% worse than Estrada’s.

    Am I missing something here?

    Comment by gore51 — January 11, 2013 @ 12:47 pm

  14. At a guess: ERA- is being calculated by Fangraphs and ERA+ by ZiPS, and the two differ on what the league average will be and/or on park factors.

    Comment by Paul Clarke — January 11, 2013 @ 1:05 pm

  15. breaking news: dan szymborski now in the hunt for saves in houston

    Comment by johnnycuff — January 11, 2013 @ 2:06 pm

  16. I believe there is a suffix missing from that name…

    Comment by scatterbrian — January 11, 2013 @ 3:03 pm

  17. Terrific!

    Comment by Ginger Croissant — January 11, 2013 @ 4:18 pm

  18. Maybe it’s just me, but 5.8 WAR for Braun seems a bit low. He’s been significantly better offensively over his career (especially the last 2 years). Any idea what the reason for this is?

    Comment by Izzy Hechkoff — January 11, 2013 @ 4:45 pm

  19. Looks like this Brewer team is about a 75 win team this year, just as I expected. Keep up the great work Dan.

    Comment by smocon — January 11, 2013 @ 4:46 pm

  20. Who the heck is Robert W00t3n?

    Comment by Darryl — January 11, 2013 @ 4:48 pm

  21. Not only this, but if last year’s team was an 83 win team, the projections here show the team to be a 75 win team vs 80 win team.

    Comment by smocon — January 11, 2013 @ 4:49 pm

  22. But, the Brewers got the good Sea Bass Gonzalez.

    Comment by samuelraphael — January 11, 2013 @ 4:52 pm

  23. quit selling shit on here asswipe-
    and for the Brewers Hitters- “Kick his ass Sea Bass!”

    Comment by Polka — January 11, 2013 @ 5:33 pm

  24. The projections always err on the side of conservative.

    Comment by Nick — January 11, 2013 @ 7:44 pm

  25. This projects them at 80 wins and they bring back more or less the same team that won 83 last year. Seems like a reasonable expectation is in the 80 to 85 range. Not sure where you got 75.

    It will largely just depend on the young pitchers which makes their projections really high variance.

    Comment by Ender — January 11, 2013 @ 9:32 pm

  26. these projections are idiotic. completely disagree with most of these. Must be a cubs fan making this

    Comment by annynomous — January 11, 2013 @ 10:37 pm

  27. Nice try. If you look at the numbers compared to the team last year it makes them a 75 win team. Loss of 3.5 from Greinke and regression from almost everyone.

    “Almost same team as last year” won 83 games, no Grienke, and a lineup and rotation full of guys who greatly overperformed.

    It’s almost like the same argument that Brewer fans tried to use in ’09 after Sabathia left “we should be just as good”. This team will struggle to play .500 ball in 2013l

    Comment by smocon — January 11, 2013 @ 10:47 pm

  28. Do you regress for their bullpen leading the majors in losses? Their bullpen ERA should be better with Axford improving, losing K-rod, Parra, Wolf and replacing with Henderson, Badenhop, Gonzalez. The number of bullpen losses was unsustainably high, even for the second worst bullpen in ERA. Whether they improve or maintain, the bullpen shouldn’t blow as many leads next year.

    Comment by Debby Downer — January 11, 2013 @ 11:05 pm

  29. This comment is idiotic. Must be an ESPN writer making it.

    Comment by Debby Downer — January 11, 2013 @ 11:06 pm

  30. Greinke was not worth 3.5 wins in half a season and almost nobody on the team overproduced. The bullpen has improved, SS has improved and the back end of the rotation is better than what they got last year from Wolf. No way they should be projected under .500 and certainly not 75 wins. They aren’t an elite team by any means but they are a competitive one.

    Comment by Ender — January 11, 2013 @ 11:57 pm

  31. You’re right, Grienke wasn’t a 3.5 WAR pitcher during his time with the Brewers… he tallied a 3.8 WAR mark. :)

    Comment by BobbyS — January 12, 2013 @ 7:30 am

  32. But the reasoning behind his/her argument is so compelling!!!! :-/

    Comment by BobbyS — January 12, 2013 @ 7:31 am

  33. 1337 |O17{=}312

    Comment by BothDakotas — January 12, 2013 @ 4:05 pm

  34. The bullpen probably wont blow as many leads this year is true, but they wont have as many leads as they did last year, because the starting pitching is demonstrably worse this year than it was last year. The new and improved bullpen will most likely have a very heavy workload.

    “almost no one overeproduced”…..Fiers, Estrada, Lucroy, Gomez, Aoki….all prime candidates for regressio.

    Comment by smocon — January 12, 2013 @ 4:58 pm

  35. Is the Rogers projection due to the system picking up his 2011 numbers? It seems strange to project such a reversal in fortune in K/BB after a full season (part minors, part majors) that was pretty decent.

    Comment by Sean — January 12, 2013 @ 6:16 pm

  36. I guess he was worth that if you use FIP based WAR which I’ll never agree with.

    Gomez had less WAR per game than the year before. Aoki looks repeatable given his peripherals. Lucroy hit like I expect him to hit other than a few extra RH, again look at the K% and BB% and history of ISO and it is largely supported. Estrada pitched mostly like he did the previous year. Fiers I’ll give you, but then they had other guys who played poorly too.

    This is not a 75 win team. It isn’t a 90 win team or anything but it is hang around between .500 and the playoff race type.

    Comment by Ender — January 13, 2013 @ 11:23 pm

  37. Ahhhh

    Comment by Eminor3rd — January 14, 2013 @ 10:55 am

  38. Smocon says Aoki is a prime candidate for regression. How does that work? Honest question. When a player is a rookie, has no minor league experience, and put up good, but modest numbers, isn’t he as much a candidate for progression as regression?

    Comment by cmow — January 14, 2013 @ 11:49 am

  39. CMOW I would say that being 32 yaars old already with horrible swing mechanics makes one a prime candidate for regression.

    Comment by smocon — January 14, 2013 @ 1:23 pm

  40. Hi Dan, is it possible to get a projection for Nick Bucci again this year? Thanks

    Comment by DoubleDave — January 15, 2013 @ 7:45 pm

  41. Robert Wooten is a reliever who spent most of his season at AAA. I don’t know why Fangraphs puts up with Dan doing his stupid in-jokes like W00t3n and Sea Bass Gonzalez. Presumably his comp is Sean Green.

    Comment by Zac — January 22, 2013 @ 1:29 am

  42. cmow:
    Aoki spent four full seasons in Japan. Most projections will take those stats into account (adjusting them for league strength).

    Comment by Zac — January 22, 2013 @ 1:32 am

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