FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Dan, what’s the variance with Sale’s 5.0 WAR? Can’t be as low as Verlander or Weaver. Wonder how much risk there is for his Cy Young contending numbers.

    Comment by ceelanks — January 16, 2013 @ 8:23 am

  2. Dan Johnson is still a free agent. Shouldn’t he be listed here, with his last team?

    Comment by Ward — January 16, 2013 @ 8:28 am

  3. and how is Quintana worth 3.0 WAR with those awful numbers? Compare to any other pitcher ZiPS has projected so far, his projected stats are much worse than pitchers with 1.5-2.5 WAR… ? Is ZiPS drinking the South Side Kool-aid?

    Comment by ceelanks — January 16, 2013 @ 8:33 am

  4. I agree it seems a bit high, based on ERA+, but if you are looking at the raw numbers, those get a bit of a boost because of the park he plays in.

    Comment by travolta19 — January 16, 2013 @ 9:26 am

  5. Comping Jeff Keppinger with Bill Madlock is hysterical.

    Comment by TheOldProfessor — January 16, 2013 @ 9:30 am

  6. So when Quintana struggles and/or Danks inevitably gets hurt for the entire season, whose got the best chance to step into the rotation: Hector Santiago, Charlie Leesman, Nestor Molina, Simon Castro, or Nate Jones?….personally, id love to see Jones in a starting role ala Alexi Ogando….i just think he could be a very good starter for the ChiSox.

    Comment by Clifford — January 16, 2013 @ 9:49 am

  7. Danks projections seem to assume injury as he is only projected for 20 starts. While he has been on the DL each of the last two seasons, he has never made less than 26 starts until last year. So his projections might be low. Of course, that comes with the provision “if he is healthy” but that applies to all players, especially pitchers.

    Comment by MikeS — January 16, 2013 @ 10:08 am

  8. I forgot there was a baseball player named Roberto Duran.

    Comment by Ivan Grushenko — January 16, 2013 @ 10:28 am

  9. Do like Quintana or not ? They project a 3.1 WAR but compare him to Jimmy Anderson …one of those things has to be wrong

    Comment by Rob — January 16, 2013 @ 11:00 am

  10. What makes you think that? He only has two decent pitches, and walks more than 4 per 9

    Comment by Eminor3rd — January 16, 2013 @ 11:06 am

  11. Yeah injuries are tough for projections, especially stuff like shoulders because of how unpredictable they are. Realistically, I think you have to look at the projection as a mean with a really high range — if he has actually recovered he’ll be substantially better, but if he hasn’t he’ll be substantially worse. The chances probably aren’t good that he actually posts THAT line.

    Comment by Eminor3rd — January 16, 2013 @ 11:08 am

  12. I would say it is not even certain that Quintana wins a rotation spot out of spring training. If healthy (and untraded)then Sale, Peavy, Danks and Floyd are pretty much locks, but aren’t they stretching out Santiago to be a starter? From what I have heard, the White Sox feel that he is an option as a fifth starter.

    Comment by MikeS — January 16, 2013 @ 11:19 am

  13. ZIPS is really high on Veal.

    We’re all high on Veal.

    Comment by samuelraphael — January 16, 2013 @ 11:45 am

  14. Veal being a new street drug, I’m assuming.

    Comment by Carson Cistulli — January 16, 2013 @ 11:46 am

  15. Well, at least White Sox fans can be secure in the fact that their team leads the league in Kaz Matsui comps.

    Comment by Big Jgke — January 16, 2013 @ 12:43 pm

  16. That’s Madlock while Madlock was collapsing, remember.

    Comment by Dan Szymborski — January 16, 2013 @ 12:48 pm

  17. Curious if you have Keppinger’s platoon splits yet, and also how that D breaks down between 2b and 3b (the latter where he seems a bit above average). Certainly seems like a great platoon sort.

    Comment by Dan — January 16, 2013 @ 1:11 pm

  18. Her?

    Comment by juan pierres mustache — January 16, 2013 @ 1:14 pm

  19. I think Szym said something about the margin of error on projections numbers being in the final spreadsheet.

    Comment by Tim A — January 16, 2013 @ 1:17 pm

  20. This is more of a gripe against WAR, but how does Dunn get a 0 for defense and Konerko get a -5? Surely the floor of a defenders value should be that of a DH even if you have to truncate it.

    Comment by Brian — January 16, 2013 @ 1:29 pm

  21. I believe the baseline already includes a knock for DH, but the defensive value/number is simply for that player’s position, so it’d be in addition to the already included bonus/penalty.

    Comment by BobbyS — January 16, 2013 @ 2:06 pm

  22. I’m confussed why Zips projects only 29 HRs for Dunn after he bounced back with 41 last year? They must also be expecting a few weeks on the DL for Sale as they project about 25 less inning than last year.

    Comment by CFG250 — January 16, 2013 @ 2:26 pm

  23. Only Rafael Palmeiro is a Gold Glove DH.

    Comment by Dan Szymborski — January 16, 2013 @ 2:41 pm

  24. Is she funny?

    Comment by TheGrandslamwich — January 16, 2013 @ 4:31 pm

  25. There probably an athlete in almost every (warm weather) sport named Roberto Duran.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — January 16, 2013 @ 5:07 pm

  26. Classic.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — January 16, 2013 @ 5:08 pm

  27. Kevin Brown as the comp for Gavin Floyd? Interesting…

    Age 30 is the year that Kevin Brown started to break out although Brown had a much stronger GB profile than Floyd.

    Comment by 96mnc — January 17, 2013 @ 3:36 pm

  28. What’s the projection for how much hawk harrelson is going to suck?

    Comment by Antonio bananas — January 18, 2013 @ 2:11 pm

  29. I love Hawk Harrelson. I did as a player and even more as an announcer. I say nothing as GM.

    Comment by whitesox67 — January 19, 2013 @ 12:11 pm

  30. Who is Trayce Thompson taking playing time from in order to get 600+ plate appearances?

    Comment by tylersnotes — January 24, 2013 @ 10:31 am

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