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  1. Those are some good projected numbers from Rutledge. Counting stats wise. Zobrist-like.

    Comment by Josh — January 17, 2013 @ 8:41 am

  2. I am a bit surprised at the low PA and HR totals for Rosario

    Comment by Scott — January 17, 2013 @ 9:12 am

  3. Number one comp of Tulowitzki is amusing: Iron man

    Comment by abreutime — January 17, 2013 @ 10:18 am

  4. With that many PAs and that slash line, does Fowler’s projected WAR of 2 in CF represent a bad defensive projection or is that simply the Coors Effect?

    Comment by BaseClogger — January 17, 2013 @ 11:07 am

  5. I don’t think it’s reasonable to evaluate their bullpen by WAR. They threw a TON more innings than everyone else last year because of their odd system where they limited their starters to 75 pitches. If you go by FIP/xFIP, they look decent, but far less impressive.

    Comment by dstancato — January 17, 2013 @ 11:52 am

  6. Wow… that rotation… ouch.

    Comment by Jaker — January 17, 2013 @ 12:17 pm

  7. he is the streakiest of streaky hitters but should hit 16HR no problem

    Comment by Tomcat — January 17, 2013 @ 12:55 pm

  8. Zips doesn know what to make of his numbers yet his AA numbers were .249/.284/.457 in 2011 after an injury and .285/.342/.552 in 2010 oddly enough his first half last year was .247/.279/.521 and his second half was .291/.342/.539 I think his low PA may have to do with that knee injury limiting PA in 2010/11

    Comment by Tomcat — January 17, 2013 @ 1:03 pm

  9. If memory serves me correctly, on the invalid formula of 45 for replacement level plus 33 from the depth chart leaves the Rockies only 2 wins below the Giants.
    That can’t be right, but I presume that 7 WAR from the bullpen will effectively be reduced when Zim does the team projections, unless he figures that Colorado will continue to drastically limit starting pitchers’ innings.

    Comment by Baltar — January 17, 2013 @ 1:39 pm

  10. Charlie Lea #1 comp for Chacin — I have always had it in my mind that Charlie Lea was an excellent pitcher, because he was top-notch in Pennant Race. Now I see he was just good for a few years, and not even great. Ah, childhood misconceptions from board games.

    Comment by Matt — January 17, 2013 @ 2:10 pm

  11. Nothing here that every Rockies fan didn’t already know, mainly that 2013 is a year full of question marks.
    To me the best defensive alignment would be Helton1B/DJ Lemathieu2B/TuloSS/Rutledge3BCargoLF/FowlerCF/Colvin-BlackmonRF
    Unfortunately I see it being a Helton,Cuddyer,Colvin,Pacheco,Wheeler1B/Rutledge,DJLM2B
    Tulo/Rutledge/HerreraSS/Nelson,Wheeler,Pacheco,DJLM3B/Cargo,EY2,BlackmonLF/Fowler,Colvin,BlackmonCF/Cuddyer,Colvin,EY2RF

    as the old saying goes when you have 2QBs you really have none

    Comment by Tomcat — January 17, 2013 @ 2:14 pm

  12. well Chacin is the Rockies all time leader in ERA+ and out side of those 5 injured starts in 2012 has a 3.44ERA through 400ip.

    Comment by Tomcat — January 17, 2013 @ 2:21 pm

  13. Weren’t the rockies going to try the extreme pitch limited starting rotation again this year? Might throw these ZiPS numbers off a bit…

    Comment by bryan — January 17, 2013 @ 4:03 pm

  14. counting numbers… that is…

    Comment by bryan — January 17, 2013 @ 4:07 pm

  15. Actually, part of the Coors Effect appears to be underrating outfielders by UZR.

    Comment by rusty — January 17, 2013 @ 4:19 pm

  16. No way is Rosario only -3 runs behind the plate.

    Comment by rusty — January 17, 2013 @ 4:24 pm

  17. People keep saying that, but the Giants chart had 43 wins, 13 from the rotation, 3 from the bullpen, 9 from the outfield, 18 from the infield.

    Comment by Dan Szymborski — January 17, 2013 @ 5:09 pm

  18. I really hope his work in the offseason brings him up to that level, because that +600PA would make him a 5WAR catcher

    Comment by Tomcat — January 17, 2013 @ 7:26 pm

  19. Largest outfield (maybe Marlins is bigger now), fast/deep hits because of altitude effect on pitch velocity, and an erratic fielding infield (to back up the overused meme of “we need groundball pitchers”) really renders generic fielding stats irrelevant.

    Fowler actually has very good range, an average arm (with better than average accuracy), and average/good instincts. Overall a better than average defensive CF — but the stats say he’s the worst defensive CF in the league and his WAR is low for that reason.

    Comment by jfree — January 17, 2013 @ 7:28 pm

  20. I should start by saying that with Jim Tracy as manager, I would have been surprised by nothing. But now that he’s out you should see some sense of reason deployed in managing the lineup night to night.

    I find it ridiculous that if Tulo and Cargo are healthy that anybody will be taking time away from them. Unfortunately you are probably right about Cuddyer seeing plenty of time ahead of Colvin/Blackmon in right. Though it’s only natural he should see more time at 1st, with Helton aging and hitting from the other side of the plate.

    And after Rutledge’s season last year, you’d think he has to be tabbed for the regular job at 3rd.

    Comment by RA Rowe — January 17, 2013 @ 7:48 pm

  21. I’d take most of these defensive projections with a grain of salt. There’s no way Rosario is only -3, and I’d be willing to bet Chris Nelson will be better than -7 at third.

    Also, I initially misread Corey Dickerson as Chris Dickerson and was really confused.

    Comment by gnomez — January 17, 2013 @ 8:59 pm

  22. Of course it’s reasonable, because they’re likely to see a bunch of innings again this year. Probably not as many as 2012, but the increase in starting pitcher WAR in the predictions makes up for that. Some reliever WAR was transferred to the starters in these projections

    Comment by Alex — January 17, 2013 @ 9:42 pm

  23. This. When healthy, Chacin is VERY good and VERY underrated. Career road ERA barely over 3

    Comment by Alex — January 17, 2013 @ 9:43 pm

  24. No. They’re using a standard 5 man rotation

    Comment by Alex — January 17, 2013 @ 9:44 pm

  25. According to the Fielding Bible, the worst 3Bs in baseball last year were Jordan Pacheco and Chris Nelson, in that order. I’m actually surprised that ZIPS is so generous to Nelson’s defense

    Comment by Alex — January 17, 2013 @ 9:46 pm

  26. Hopefully he can bring his walks down, but he already has two of the 5 best seasons in Rockies History

    Comment by TomCat — January 18, 2013 @ 1:06 am

  27. I’m guessing there’s some kind of order, but I’m anxiously waiting for the Dodgers and Orioles.

    Comment by My echo and bunnymen — January 18, 2013 @ 3:35 am

  28. Al Martin is beyond ecstatic to be compared to Carlos Gonzalez

    Comment by shoewizard — January 18, 2013 @ 7:58 am

  29. Kyle Parker hasn’t played above High-A ball. How can anyone project 526 PAs for him?!

    Comment by Jimmy D — January 18, 2013 @ 10:07 am

  30. Bryan, it read better the first time!

    Comment by Jimmy D — January 18, 2013 @ 10:08 am

  31. A Wheeler/Nelson platoon at 3B is the most likely outcome right now although Wheeler/Pacheco is also possible. They seem to view Rutledge as a long term solution at 2B, so they may want him there full time.

    Walt Weiss gives me hope as he was a defense and patience player(his 1995 in COL was awesome .260/.403/.321) which means he may give guys like Lemathieu more playing time.

    Comment by Tomcat — January 18, 2013 @ 11:04 am

  32. These numbers are what the projection system would think if for some reason they had to start from day one, not that they will

    Comment by Tomcat — January 18, 2013 @ 11:07 am

  33. Didn’t scan thru all of the posts but I hate the McGehee comp for Arenado. Is defense considered regarding the the comp? McGehee is a special kind of bad defensively at 3B.

    Agree completely regarding Jim Tracy’s ineptitude and I also agree that UZR for Rockies outfielders is a mess at times. Something definitely doesn’t feel right where that stuff is concerned, but the Rockies didn’t field well in 2012 and that certainly didn’t help the already bad pitching situation.

    Anyway, that comp for Arenado does not inspire. I’ll take the over on that one for sure, no matter what ZIPS spits out.

    Comment by razor — January 18, 2013 @ 4:25 pm

  34. Fortunately, the Arenado comp is a “one season at this point in his career”, rather than an estimation of his true talent. 22 and in the majors with a .280/.319/.433 line doesn’t seem completely crazy (especially since it’s over a full season, so you don’t get SSS numbers like Rutledge’s 2012). I’m optimistic about his potential and career, but his 2013 projection doesn’t seem incompatible with that optimism.

    Comment by rusty — January 18, 2013 @ 5:13 pm

  35. Despite all the pithy comments in the intro, in what way is Nicasio the best pitcher in a rotation that includes Chacin?

    Comment by Vin — February 7, 2013 @ 9:41 pm

  36. I see a 100 loss team

    Comment by cc — March 25, 2013 @ 3:34 am

  37. What’s a “Jarod Juelsgaard?”

    Comment by gnomez — March 26, 2013 @ 7:51 pm

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