FanGraphs Baseball

Comments

RSS feed for comments on this post.

  1. Seems kind of similar to the other trade made today.

    Comment by Daniel B — November 5, 2009 @ 6:24 pm

  2. Man, I wanted the Ms to make this move.

    Comment by JH — November 5, 2009 @ 6:34 pm

  3. I have spent the past week scouring for old Hermida scouting reports because I wanted to buy low on some of his roookie cards. I spent 35.00 last night on some rare cards and I am very pleased with my purchase at this point.

    In the article comparing Hermida to Grieve, I wrote that he compares best with Paul O’Neill and as far as Theo’s past moves go, this ranks right up there with the day he plucked David Ortiz off of the waiver wire. I remember watching Ortiz sitting on the wire astounded that he was not claimed, then Theo got him. While at AFL last year, I mentioned that story to Bob Gebhard (the man who conducted the expansion draft of the original Rockies team) He had told me Ortiz had been “expensive” at that point in time. I felt as if Ortiz was the next Willy Stargell and that is how it ended up. I think Hermida will be for the Red Sox what Paul O’Neill was for the Yankees. They both have similar frames and similar athleticism. I guess “creaky” might be a good word, but they both know how to hit and are LH batters which is great to have in the lineup. I think Hermida will be able to cover that smaller Fenway RF just fine or play the ball off the Monster in LF. MUCH easier than playing in Joe Robbie stadium. If he gets more creaky, he can always take over the DH spot for Ortiz after he departs in a few years. I dont see Hermida sitting the bench in 2010, no way. He is for sure their 4th OF and backup DH. If anything, this will see the end of Baldelli , they will not pick up his 8 million dollar option. Hermida is what they were hoping to find out of Baldelli which of course was not to be. Reddick should be sent back to AA, not AAA, Josh plays perfect defense but he needs more experience at the plate.

    Comment by Sean Fairchild — November 5, 2009 @ 6:40 pm

  4. One of the great prospect failures of the last 10 years. I hope this guy figures it out somewhere. I know this is no way to judge a player’s true abilities, but when this guy actually hits the ball hard, he looks as good as anyone in baseball. The problem, of course, is that he very rarely hits the ball hard. Good luck to him.

    Comment by Hambone — November 5, 2009 @ 7:00 pm

  5. How is he a FAILURE? That is a strong word. He will be 26 for the entire 2010 season. Most players dont breakout until his age.

    Comment by Sean Fairchild — November 5, 2009 @ 7:07 pm

  6. What are you talking about? His line drive percentage was 20.1% in 2009 and career is 19.7%. The issue with Hermida is not at all about him hitting the ball hard. Im much more concerned with his platoon split and defense.

    Comment by alskor — November 5, 2009 @ 7:18 pm

  7. I wouldn’t say failure. He’s fallen well short of expectations, but he’s still a 26-year old with a career .336 wOBA (102 OPS+) who has breakout potential.

    Comment by JH — November 5, 2009 @ 7:28 pm

  8. Why would a corner outfielder with bad defense who is struggling with his power be a good fit for the Mariners? Their park is the anti-homerun and they have a full outfield of great defenders already.

    Comment by R M — November 5, 2009 @ 7:33 pm

  9. Bard has #27, wonder what # he will wear?

    Comment by Sean Fairchild — November 5, 2009 @ 7:39 pm

  10. What should we make of the bizarre home/road split? He’s always been much worse in Florida than on the road.

    Comment by Tim K. — November 5, 2009 @ 7:49 pm

  11. He hits a lot of balls to Left Center… pretty much the worst place to hit it in Florida. http://florida.marlins.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=fla&playerID=435181&statType=1

    Its a heck of a lot better to hit that way in Fenway. There’s been a good bit written about this over the years w/regards to Hermida.

    Comment by alskor — November 5, 2009 @ 7:56 pm

  12. I just checked out that chart, all of his HOME HR went to dead straight away RF as do most of his singles and doubles. So he is a pull hitter contrary to what you said about him hitting sligtly to opposite field. He should hit at least 25hr per year in Fenway.

    Comment by Sean Fairchild — November 5, 2009 @ 8:20 pm

  13. Actually his doubles varied but it looks like a 2 to 1 ratio on his singles and groundouts to the rightside compared to the left. ALL of his HOME HR went to RF. He is a pull hitter.

    Comment by Sean Fairchild — November 5, 2009 @ 8:22 pm

  14. Safeco is only anti-home run for righthanders. It has a short porch in Right Field that makes it a pretty favorable place to hit for lefthanders with power.

    Hermida’s a good fit as a low-risk high reward player who obviously didn’t cost much talent to acquire. He’s had some down seasons, but he’s also the same guy who was a top prospect and who put up a .296/.369/.501 line as a 23-year old. We talk a lot about standard development paths, but it’s really not that uncommon for guys like this to break out as they reach their peak years. If you’re like me and don’t see Michael Saunders as major league ready, taking a ~$3 million gamble on a guy who could potentially cash in on his huge upside is a pretty good move. There aren’t too many opportunities to bargain shop for guys with upside as high as Hermida’s. If a team makes this move 100 times, 10-15 or so times they’ll end up with a huge bargain on their hands. The other 85-90 times, all they’ve done is pay the guy about $1 million more than he’s worth. Acquiring 3 club-controlled years of a flawed guy with huge upside without losing any real prospects or mortgaging the future in any way is exactly the kind of deal I’d like to see the Mariners make. If he doesn’t work out, you non-tender him before he gets expensive. If he cashes in on the promise he showed in 2007 you have a potential star on your hands.

    Comment by JH — November 5, 2009 @ 8:26 pm

  15. Then I checked his career at home and it looks like a 3 to 1 ratio of his singles either going up the middle or through the right side compared with to the leftside.

    ALL OF HIS HOME HR ARE TO THE SHORT RIGHT FIELD PORCH EVEN THOUGH THAT DOES NOT EXIST IN FLORIDA , YET, IT DOES EXIST IN FENWAY!! I EXPECT 25-30HR IN 2010.

    Comment by Sean Fairchild — November 5, 2009 @ 8:27 pm

  16. Hitting to right field at Fenway isn’t exactly a treat. The short porch exists if you park one right down the line, but it’s 380 to the deppest part of right field. Not exactly a pop-fly home run.

    Comment by Jonathan — November 5, 2009 @ 8:56 pm

  17. Failure is too strong, sorry. Disappointment is more accurate.

    Comment by Hambone — November 5, 2009 @ 9:33 pm

  18. His slugging was .392 in 429 ABs this year. That’s down from .501 in the exact same amount of ABs in 2007. Don’t confuse LD% with real results. 29 extra base hits from a corner OF is not acceptable in the major leagues.

    Comment by Hambone — November 5, 2009 @ 9:36 pm

  19. I agree I live in Seattle. I saw Jeter launch an oppsoite field shot about 5 rows back. It only took 5 seconds to get out. He must have carried that swing over from the new Yankee Stadium. Hermida would have been better in Safeco than in Florida with that 20′ wall but he will be even better in Fenway which is why Theo got him. He hits all of his HR to straight away RF and the wall is low there in Fenway, he could hit some “Fliner” HR. He is definitely a pull LH hitter.

    Comment by Sean Fairchild — November 5, 2009 @ 9:49 pm

  20. Jonathan someoen told me the same thing on MLBTR but the dimensions are favorable compared to in Florida. Pesky Pole is great , granted, then yes as you say it is 380 to straight away right, but then as it heads toward center it comes in @ 375′ wheras that part of FLA is 385, plus FLA has a 20′ wall and Fenway has a FIVE foot wall. That porch in Fenway is where he hit all of his career HR in FLA.

    Hermida could hit some “Fliner” HR. He is definitely a pull LH hitter.

    Comment by Sean Fairchild — November 5, 2009 @ 9:54 pm

  21. This is exactly like when the Yankees got Paul O’Neill for Roberto Kelly. It could put BOS back on top of the division.

    Comment by Sean Fairchild — November 5, 2009 @ 10:15 pm

  22. This:

    “It could put BOS back on top of the division.”

    is just silly.

    Comment by The Hit Dog — November 6, 2009 @ 12:03 am

  23. Hahaha. I am/was as big of fan as anyone of Hermida, but man, Sean. You’re really shining shit and calling it gold.

    Comment by scott — November 6, 2009 @ 1:01 am

  24. They said the same thing when the Yankees got Paul O’Neill. People were actually upset that they traded Roberto Kelly to get him. Scouts have always compared Hermida to O’Neill. You look at Hermida’s hit charts over his career at home and you see that he is made for Fenway. It will be interesting if he can solidify the RF job then he will know how the ball carams around out there since that is where he hits the ball.

    Hit Dog, Scott, I dont consider that any sort of substance, try again.

    Comment by Sean Fairchild — November 6, 2009 @ 1:15 am

  25. Interesting theory, but according to this

    http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=bos&playerID=435181&statType=1

    all but one of his doubles at home went to right center or straight on left field. So it looks like anything he was going to hit over the wall in right went over anyway….porch wouldn’t help much.

    Comment by R M — November 6, 2009 @ 2:04 am

  26. Hermida has bad defensive reputation, while O’Neill was one of the best RF during the 90’s. That would imply that O’Neill was much better athlete. While Hermida can turn into O’Neill, I would expect him to come close in ISO and ISP (isolated power and patience), but not in BA; O’Neill was .300 hitter with Yankees. That’s still very nice player, but 50-80 points OPS less, and with worse D than O’Neill.

    Comment by Davor — November 6, 2009 @ 3:59 am

  27. Paul O’Neill could actually play defense though….

    Hermida isn’t likely to solidify anything.

    He’ll probably continue to project as a somewhat above average bat but lets assume he does even better and puts up a wOBA of .370 next season because “his bat is built for Fenway”.

    Lets also assume that the Redsox use him as a starter.

    Here’s the numbers assuming 600 PAs: +21 bat, +20 replacement, -7.5 position, -9 defense (total=25 runs or 2.5 wins).

    So assuming Hermida has a career year for a full season at the plate, he’d grade out as something like an average player.

    The Redsox got a 4th outfielder with the upside of “average” corner outfielder. Ya for them but he’s not really a Paul O’Neill moment for Epstein.

    Comment by Terry — November 6, 2009 @ 4:03 am

  28. Sean Fairchild, you’re a dork, shut up.

    Comment by Nick — November 6, 2009 @ 7:12 am

  29. Don’t expect anything great. Hermida is what he is: he’s got patience, he doesn’t have a whole lot of pop, and he’s a mediocre to awful defender. That’s all. If you give him a 15-20 point boost in wOBA for moving out of Landshark Stadium, he’s still worth about 1.5 WAR thanks to his poor defense in the corner outfield.

    As a Marlins fan, I was happy to be able to trade him for someone that may see play. I don’t think any of the two players acquired were good, or even mediocre, but compared to losing Hermida for nothing (a likely proposition), it fairs much better.

    That being said, I wish him the best of luck.

    Comment by Michael — November 6, 2009 @ 9:14 am

  30. It’s a good trade for both sides imo.

    Red Sox get a guy w/ real upside for a backup corner OF, Marlins get money off the books for a guy that didn’t have the utility that he would have in Florida.

    Comment by Joe R — November 6, 2009 @ 9:25 am

  31. Is there a hitter not “made” for Fenway? You said you expect Hermida to hit 25-30 HRs next year. That’s batshit crazy.

    Comment by scott — November 6, 2009 @ 10:13 am

  32. A hitter “made for Fenway” is one who hits from the right side of the plate.

    I solved the puzzle!?

    Comment by Nestor Chylak — November 6, 2009 @ 10:46 am

  33. R.J.,

    There’s always blurbs of amature scouting for sox players at soxprospects.com and the sosh wiki. Usually the sosh wiki just steals content from soxsprospects, but sometimes there’s extra info.

    http://soxprospects.com/players/alvarez-jose.htm
    http://sonsofsamhorn.net/wiki/index.php/Jose_Alvarez

    Comment by pack — November 6, 2009 @ 11:11 am

  34. great, just ship Hermida some magic milkshakes, and Theo will be a genius all over again!

    congrats, you got a player not as good as David Murphy, the guy you gave away for Gagne!

    Wonder Boy does it again!!!

    Comment by Steve — November 6, 2009 @ 11:32 am

  35. agreed that’s an OK trade for the Sox as he’ll make a fine 4th OFer.

    but the comparison to two borderline HoFers in Paul O’Neill and David Ortiz is just hilarious.

    he’s Eric Hinske.

    which is fine for what they gave up.

    Comment by Steve — November 6, 2009 @ 11:36 am

  36. Too bad everyone (rightfully) thought that was an excellent move by Theo at the time. Secondly, David Murphy is not the piece sox fans regrett trading away, though it must be said that when the trade was made Gagne was almost a lock for type A status so that losing Beltre should not have been that big of a deal. But I guess you are one of those types that believe JD Drew is overpaid, so I will not waste any more of my time.

    Comment by Diaz — November 6, 2009 @ 2:48 pm

  37. “But I guess you are one of those types that believe JD Drew is overpaid, so I will not waste any more of my time.”

    excellent strawman.

    Comment by Steve — November 6, 2009 @ 3:25 pm

  38. That was a bad generalization, however I find that most people who do not Theo in high regard usually believe that JD Drew is overpaid/over rated. I really see any rational reason to dislike Epstein’s management of the team over his tenure.

    Comment by Diaz — November 6, 2009 @ 3:46 pm

  39. Of course you did overlook 85% of my response, which indicates that you realize that your criticism on the Gagne trade was not warranted.

    Comment by Diaz — November 6, 2009 @ 3:48 pm

  40. Re-Posted for clarity:

    That was a bad generalization, however I find that most people who do not hold Theo in high regard usually believe that JD Drew is overpaid/over rated. I really do not see any rational reason to dislike Epstein’s management of the team over his tenure.

    Comment by Diaz — November 6, 2009 @ 3:50 pm

  41. i generally think Theo is an excellent GM.

    i am, however, poking a little fun at those who seem to think this is a genius move. and the implication that Hermida will be another Ortiz or Pail O’Neill is simply laughable.

    he’s a nice fourth OFer, or a starter on a non-contender (i.e. not the Red Sox). given the price, it’s a fine trade. but the hyperbole was too out of control to resist the snark. sorry.

    Comment by Steve — November 6, 2009 @ 4:05 pm

  42. “Former top prospect,…lack of power…going the wrong way.”

    Over a year ago, (July 31, 2008), I opined, “Jeremy Hermida is no great shakes (.257 BA), {nor are Tucker and Stanton. Essentially, Florida is offering a bunch of second-raters for the Pirates best player”]

    And while the two have somewhat different skill sets, I was exaggerating only slightly when I predicted that Hermida would fall to “Chris Duffy” levels of productivity.

    Comment by Tom Au — November 6, 2009 @ 7:10 pm

  43. Then I must say that I really misinterpreted what you were saying. I agree with you that it is highly unlikely (not impossible by any stretch) but implausable that Hermida will become Paul Oneill. For every David Ortiz, Boston has aquired atleast 5 Willy Mo Penas.

    Comment by Diaz — November 7, 2009 @ 12:18 am

  44. This is all the same stuff they said when the Yankees traded Roberto Kelly for Paul O’Neill. I remember it like it was yesterday. Ill shut up but ill be back after this pans out. Congrats to Epstein. You all have no balls.

    Comment by Sean Fairchild — November 8, 2009 @ 9:00 pm

  45. What I said in 2008, along with the probability that Hermida would give Florida fits held in 2009. I didn’t say it would necessarily apply to 2010 or thereafter.

    Comment by Tom Au — November 9, 2009 @ 9:56 am

  46. Paul O’Neill didnt start hitting until he was 30 years old, and he averaged about .310 per season during the early part of the Yankees dynasty. I remember being in Fulton County Stadium when he slapped the wall running into it to catch the final out of 1996 WS. Someone on MLBTR instantly assumed he would start the season in Pawtucket, and if that happens its not a disaster. Even if he doesnt produce this year, it will happen and I think the have his contract for a few years. So I have to take back what I said that I gaurantee that he hits 25 this year. O’Neill took till he was 30. Maybe it will be a few years for Hermida but the Sox should reneg his contract and get him long term.

    Comment by Sean Fairchild — November 9, 2009 @ 9:18 pm

  47. Sean Fairchild says:

    “I remember being in Fulton County Stadium when he slapped the wall running into it to catch the final out of 1996 WS.”

    Actually, the Yankees won the World Series in Game 6 at Yankee Stadium. You may be misremembering the final out of the 1996 WS.

    Comment by MJ — November 10, 2009 @ 12:41 pm

Leave a comment

Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>


Close this window.

0.222 Powered by WordPress